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Tuesday's "Outliers"

Topics: Outliers Feature

Over at the TPMCafe discussion of polling, David Moore thinks pollsters should need to more to measure and report voter uncertainty, and George Bishop thinks voters may mean very different things when they say they're "undecided."

Gallup looks at subgroups of Hispanic voters.

Gary Langer says Obama is winning more support than ever from Clinton Democrats.

Mark Mellman sticks up for Steve Schmidt.

David Hill says early voting is changing everything

Jon Cohen notes that cell-phone only voters favor Obama by 2:1.

Tom Edsall weighs in on whether the race is tightening.

Nate Silver evaluates the tracking polls.

PPP teases more of their upcoming polls.

 

Comments

The Edsall article's reliance on RCP numbers is maddening. Because of their methodology--straight averaging of an arbitrary selection of polls--statistical noise is built in. This may be a good business model for them, with obsessives checking in on the ever-changing numbers throughout the day, but it's bad science.

All that said, I think there may be something to this tightening meme, but it's not anywhere near time for Obama supporters to pull their hair out. My site's numbers (which average across different poll-tracking methodologies--how meta, I know) show a slight downturn over the past couple days, but nothing panic-worthy. Instead, these numbers should just be a good reminder to Obama supporters of the need to not get complacent because of good polls and extraordinary fund-raising numbers. It's taken a lot of hard work and money to get just to where we are, and it'll take a lot more to finish it up over the next two weeks.

And in that regard, two weeks out sounds like a very good time for Obama supporters to get such a reality check. Three or four weeks out and we could have forgotten it, while a week out it could be hard to get the momentum back in time. Seems even when he improves, McCain still manages to fall behind somehow.

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drdr:

Steve Schmidt is the new Mark Penn.

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dianehelen:

Can anyone explain to me the ONE poll , AP that was shown, or at least an article about it, on the msnbc site, that showed only a 1% lead for Obama? it was like 44/43?

This was like SOOO out of line with EVERY other poll we have been seeing?

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