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TX: 2010 Gov (Kos 2/8-10)

Topics: poll

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
2/8-10/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Texas

Favorable / Unfavorable
Rick Perry: 50 / 45
Kay Bailey Hutchison: 52 / 37
Debra Medina: 47 / 35
Bill White: 49 / 33
John Cornyn: 49 / 41
Barack Obama: 44 / 54

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
42% Perry, 30% Hutchison, 17% Medina

2010 Governor: Republican Primary Runoff
43% Perry, 33% Hutchison
44% Perry, 23% Medina
38% Hutchison, 30% Medina

2010 Governor: General Election
46% Perry, 42% White
47% Hutchison, 41% White
44% Medina, 43% White

 

Comments
obamalover:

Maybe we can finally get a Republican out of Austin.

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Stillow:

Keep wishing........the Dem party is in total chaos right now....Bayh's retirement is just the latest.

TX will keep Perry and in the end he will be elected with a comfortable margin.

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obamalover:

@Stillow

Actually more Republicans have announced retirement than Democrats this year. The percentage of Dems retiring are within normal limits. But conservatives and the MSM like to sensationalize everything.

Fact of the matter is Bayh was cruising towards reelection before he announced retirement. So it had nothing to do with the electoral environment for Dems, eventhough you would like to believe that to satisfy your own delusions.

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Stillow:

Ok, you keep beleiving that. Bayh was in big trouble and he knew it. He was riding name recongition in some of the polls....I think his internals showed a much different picture. He is doing the same thing Dorgan is doing....he'd rather quit than lose. Everyone knows it.

As I said, the Dem party is in total chaos with tons of infighting with eachother, low polls everywhere for D candidates.

Gonna be real nasty for the D's this fall.

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obamalover:

@Stillow

Dorgan was losing in the polls to a very popular governor. Bayh was coasting. Please name this poll that shows Bayh in trouble, but you probably won't. You have no evidence to offer to back up your deluded argument.

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Stillow:

No poll, just common sense. He is triting cus he knew he was in rouble. Onc ethe campaign started his name recognition would give way to his lock step voting record with O who is not popular anymore. He did not want to face losing, so he quit. Thats what politicans do, they want to save face so they "retrie" instead of losing.

But like I said, you and other Dems should keep thinking what you do. To date that line of thinking has worked out very very well for you....NJ, VA, MA....Bayh saw what happened in MA....where the Dem had a 30 point lead, then Brown ran on being the vote that would kill the HCR....uh oh, what happened? Brown won.

Bayh was in deep trouble and he knew it. Nelson and Landruie would be doign the same thing this year if they were up.....both of them will lose in 2012 and everyone other than left wingers know it.

Bayh was going to be exposed in the campaign as a lap dog.....he knows it, the GOP knew it and that is why he dropped out, he didn't want his career to end with a loss.

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Xenobion:

Bayh would have got reelected. I still think Coats is in big trouble against a generic Democrat. That guy is the Martha Coakley of Indiana.

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obamalover:

@Stillow

Just what I thought. Even though all the polls show that Bayh was well ahead of Coats you just have a gut feeling that he was going to lose? LOL! Ok Stillow. You are clearly deluded.

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saywhat90:

There is no evidence that Bayh was going to lose his reelection bid. Noones knows why he retired.

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obamalover:

@saywhat90

I know why. The Indiana Governor's seat will be open in two years and he wanted to screw Obama at the last minute for not choosing him for Veep. Simply put Bayh is a petty troll.

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Stillow:

Right, there was also no evidence that coakley was going to lose 30 days out also....not until a challenger emerged who opposed HCR....and you saw what happened, and that was in a deep blue state. In a red state like IN with far more conservatives than MA has.....the GOP nominee woudl have hit bayh over the head with that HCR vote......

So again, you libs are in absolute total denial about the reality in which your party finds itself.Bayh knew he was goign to finally be exposed as a typical obama type democrat. He talked the talk, but never backed it up, when the time came to vote, he caved into everythign the obama wanted.

Denial is an ugly thing....gonna cost you Congress in 2010.

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obamalover:

@Stillow

Actually it was a special election and the electoral calender was incredibly shortened. Which was why there wasn't any polling on that race 30 days out like there has been for the Indiana race which shows Bayh trouncing Coats.

Furthermore, Brown is a big supporter of universal healthcare in Massachusetts. Mass was hardly embracing conservative ideals with the election of Brown.

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Stillow:

I know, I know...just keep doing what you lefties do, create that little make beleive world in your minds, convince yourselves that whats happening isn't happening and run with it.

You'd think after getting whipped the last 3 high profile elections you guys would get tired of wiping the egg off, but I guess not.

This line of thinking you lefties have has gotten you nothing from your super majorities. Right now its looking like you will a net of no less than 6 seats i nthe senate and probably 8. Just a bit of advice,you might wanna try soemthing other than the fantasy stuff, it doesn't seem to be working very well.

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LordMike:

Bayh wasn't in trouble, but he'd have to put up a modicum of a fight, and that man has never fought for anything. He's had everything handed to him on a silver platter, and never even fought for any issues other than "can't we all just get along?" I'm not surprised that he followed Sarah Palin's way of the quitter when he suddenly got challenged. I wondered about this the day Coats announced. Would Bayh quit now that he has to actually run against somebody real? I should have placed a bet on it. I would have won big.

I'd rather have Baron Hill run... at least he's stood for something. Don't start celebrating, yet, Mr. Coats is a lot like Bayh... never had to fight for anything, runs away whent he going gets tough. IN will be interesting.

As for your other stuff... if the dems start passing bills, the dynamic changes greatly. But, they have a hard time doing that, seeing as they keep trying to futily appease republicans.

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obamalover:

@Stillow

And yet in every poll the Republicans are less popular than the Dems.

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Field Marshal:

The Last Ras poll had him down to Pence who isnt running and only up by 3 on Hostettler.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/indiana/election_2010_indiana_senate

While Bayh might have won in Nov, he definitely saw a much tougher political environment that he has previously. Plus, i think he is fed up with the loons running his party.

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Field Marshal:

Alo, going back to the other discussion, i'm in my low 30's as are most of my friends. It was interesting to see that most of my high school friends are all republican with one indy. Its also interesting to note that we grew up in NY where dems greatly outnumber reps. Additonally, we are all well educated. I think people tend to hang out with like minded people.

In addition, i think people become more conservative as they age. Especially people who reach their late 20's and 30's who are buying their first homes and starting families. Someone in their early 20's probably still hasnt honed their ideology very much and is simply reacting to the world around them, namely liberal professors.

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LordMike:

FM, you are on the tail end of the Gen X'ers... the most loyal GOP demographic, at least in 2008.

I became more liberal as I got older, actually... When you have a family, you realize it's not all about you, and you better find a way to improve the ills of society instead of running away from it an hiding in lily-white suburban homeowner associations hoping the problems just go away and that somehow you'll be isolated and protected from the turmoil (hint: you won't).

Republicans say that a rising tide lifts all boats when it comes to free trade. It's time we apply that to society as a whole. If my neighbor does well, I prosper. He can support my kids schools and keep my property values high. If he fails, I suffer as my house is worth less, my kids schooling is hurt, the services I benefit from get cut, etc. If he goes bankrupt due to medical bills, I suffer, too. He drags me down as well. When society does poorly as a whole, it drags everyone down.

Setting the stage for only a few to be successful benefits no one.

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obamalover:

@FM

Funny that Bayh pulled out at the last minute. Now the GOP is going to be stuck with Coats otherwise a more promising candidate might have stepped up. Dems on the other hand can hand pick Bayh's successor to run against Coats.

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obamalover:

@FM

Funny that Bayh pulled out at the last minute. Now the GOP is going to be stuck with Coats otherwise a more promising candidate might have stepped up. Dems on the other hand can hand pick Bayh's successor to run against Coats.

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obamalover:

@FM

Funny that Bayh pulled out at the last minute. Now the GOP is going to be stuck with Coats otherwise a more promising candidate might have stepped up. Dems on the other hand can hand pick Bayh's successor to run against Coats.

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Aaron_in_TX:

" i think people become more conservative as they age."

Where's your evidence for this, other than the famous quote by Winston Churchill? How do you account for the youth of the 1980s? Voters 18-29 supported Reagan by 61-39 in 1984 and Bush by 53-47 in 1988. Those voters are in their 40s and 50s now, that group split 50/49 in favor of Obama in 2008. Although it's impossible to know how many of those young people from the 80s voted in 2008, if they grew more conservative as you suggest, you'd think the 45-64 sample would have been overwhelmingly strong for McCain.

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/presidential/presidential_election.html

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

I'm 27. I used to be very conservative. My views started to change around the time of the 2004 election due to various factors. It had nothing to do with college professors, rather my own experiences and those of family and friends. I didn't even start college until I was a few years older than most because I had been in the military.

I work in higher education now; I can assure you students do not care what professors think. Rather, they think professors are quite out of touch. They care about what is going to be on the test, and forget it soon after. I notice every once in a while some students that come from conservative backgrounds do seem to accept liberal ideas, but I think these individuals were already so inclined. Most students don't think very deeply about politics because they're indifferent to it. Furthermore, the sample of young people from the exits are not all college students, and non-college youth voted slightly more strongly for John Kerry than college youth in 2004.

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_04_noncollege_vote.pdf See graph 3.

Looking at the past exits, it looks to me like the over 65 people until recently (this would be the WWII, or "greatest generation who have been dying in large numbers the past decade) were reliably democratic from 1988-2000, while the young people vacillated - going from as high as +16 D in 1996 to +2 D in 2000.

Marketing research shows that brand loyalties are established at a young age, and sociological, psychological, and political science research shows that some attitudes may be ingrained as early as ages 10-15. I tend to think that age cohorts stay the same more or less, and its the society at large that moves around them. There's also research that shows people get more liberal as they get older, but "liberal" is relative and it is often "conservative" by the time they get old.

In any case, here's an article from 1974 that challenges the aging & conservatism argument. If you have access to an academic database, you'll find a wealth of literature on this subject. Some you can dig up for free, with persistence. http://ann.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/415/1/176

Articles do exist that say there is a relation between age and conservatism.

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Aaron_in_TX:

" i think people become more conservative as they age."

Where's your evidence for this, other than the famous quote by Winston Churchill? How do you account for the youth of the 1980s? Voters 18-29 supported Reagan by 61-39 in 1984 and Bush by 53-47 in 1988. Those voters are in their 40s and 50s now, that group split 50/49 in favor of Obama in 2008. Although it's impossible to know how many of those young people from the 80s voted in 2008, if they grew more conservative as you suggest, you'd think the 45-64 sample would have been overwhelmingly strong for McCain.

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/presidential/presidential_election.html

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

I'm 27. I used to be very conservative. My views started to change around the time of the 2004 election due to various factors. It had nothing to do with college professors, rather my own experiences and those of family and friends. I didn't even start college until I was a few years older than most because I had been in the military.

I work in higher education now; I can assure you students do not care what professors think. Rather, they think professors are quite out of touch. They care about what is going to be on the test, and forget it soon after. I notice every once in a while some students that come from conservative backgrounds do seem to accept liberal ideas, but I think these individuals were already so inclined. Most students don't think very deeply about politics because they're indifferent to it. Furthermore, the sample of young people from the exits are not all college students, and non-college youth voted slightly more strongly for John Kerry than college youth in 2004.

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_04_noncollege_vote.pdf See graph 3.

Looking at the past exits, it looks to me like the over 65 people until recently (this would be the WWII, or "greatest generation who have been dying in large numbers the past decade) were reliably democratic from 1988-2000, while the young people vacillated - going from as high as +16 D in 1996 to +2 D in 2000.

Marketing research shows that brand loyalties are established at a young age, and sociological, psychological, and political science research shows that some attitudes may be ingrained as early as ages 10-15. I tend to think that age cohorts stay the same more or less, and its the society at large that moves around them. There's also research that shows people get more liberal as they get older, but "liberal" is relative and it is often "conservative" by the time they get old.

In any case, here's an article from 1974 that challenges the aging & conservatism argument. If you have access to an academic database, you'll find a wealth of literature on this subject. Some you can dig up for free, with persistence. http://ann.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/415/1/176

Articles do exist that say there is a relation between age and conservatism.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

WRT to this poll, Perry is rolling. White has an outside chance to beat him, but it's not likely. Democrats picked the best possible candidate they could have chosen. Unlike most elections in TX.

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Xenobion:

Bayh is not an Obama type Democrat. lol Where do you get your material Stillow?

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Rockym92:

@ stillow and OL

Bayhs retirement certainly is a blow to the democrats chances in Indiana though i still think they can hold the seat if Coats ends up being the GOP nominee. He just carries far too much baggage. I believe Bayh would have probably won re-election even in this political climate, though it would have been a long tough race.

As for the GOP and Dem retirements, yes the GOP have 18 and the dems only 14 (in the house of reps)but 12 of the 18 GOP retirements are actually running for a higher office not simply retiring from politics altogether as opposed to only 6 of the 14 dems doing the same. Also the republicans that are retiring are leaving behind far friendlier turf for the GOP to easily retain as opposed to most of the dem retirements being in hostile tossup territory. All retirements are not equal.

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Field Marshal:

LM,

I would say you are the rarity, not me, in that you got more liberal as you aged. I just started my family and if anything, i have gotten more conservative. There is a big huff in Colorado about the legalization of medicinal marijuana over the last few months. The crime related to it has also increased many fold. Do i want to have my child grow up in an area where this crap is easily accessible and the crime around it is high just so some far lefties can have their social experiment? No thanks.

I also want my child to have some sort of goals, motivation, and beliefs in life. The Dem notion that someone else will provide for you is something i will attempt to block from my childs learning. I want him to be an achiever; someone who will set a very high bar for himself and actually try to achieve it.

In addition, a rising tide does life all boats. Conservatives donate a significant amount more to charity. Libs tend to rely on government instead. That's fine. I think private charities provide more but that's my opinion.

In addition, its not the reps who are setting us up for a few to be rich but the dems. They punish anyone who is successful and thus are pushing down to the rich to the levels of the middle class and poor, the ripple effect will lower all boats. The only rich people who will be left are the Dems in washington collecting their campaign and bribe money.

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Stillow:

X - My misguided freind. The HC debate has proven there is no usch thing as a conservative democrat. Anyone claiming to be fiscally conservative would not have supported what is clerly the worst piece of legislation to be proposed in decades. Elected conservative democrats are a myth, they do not exist. They may talk like one, but when it comes time to vote, they cave and fall in line with what there party leadeship tells them to do............Bayh, Nelson, Webb, Lincoln, etc, etc all claim to be fiscally responsible, ya right....HCR exposed them for frauds, and that is why they will all be losing there next elections.....Bayh would have lost and he knew it.

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Xenobion:

You play politics Stillow which is your downfall. Poltically there is always a spectrum and Bayh played the center correct. You are trying to divide liberals and conservatives appart like they are something bi-polar to each other. Nice try but liberal conservatives/moderates/conservative liberals they all exist. You even post about how they exist with Joe Liberman. You play politics my boy and you can't just make this stuff up without getting everyone on the site to laugh it up like its comedy night!

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DFW freethinker:

This poll is garbage. There is absolutely no way that Bill White is within 4 points of Rick Perry in a general election match up. Bill White is going to lose, and lose bad. The Democrats should be able to provide a better candidate. Ron Kirk and Tony Sanchez are still better candidates than Bill White.

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Stillow:

Nice try, but everytime Obama needed there vote, they were right there with open arms....the bogus stimulus, the HCR.... "elected" consevative dems do not exist....there are real conservative dems, but none that are elected.....bayh and the rest of the lap dogs rolled over so obama can rub there bellies and they gave him there vote when he needed it on a bill that is the polar opposite from fiscal responsibility.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"The Democrats should be able to provide a better candidate. Ron Kirk and Tony Sanchez are still better candidates than Bill White."

Are you kidding? What makes you think Kirk or Sanchez would be better? In 2002, Kirk lost to Cornyn 55-43 and Sanchez lost to Perry 58-40. Kirk now works in the Obama administration so he's out. Sanchez endorsed Strayhorn in 2006 and she did terribly in his area, Webb county. Those guys would fare exactly the same if not worse than what they got before. What is it that makes White bad in your opinion, other than him being a democrat?

White was known as a business-friendly mayor of Houston and was very popular.

The dems don't need more hispanic votes, they already have south TX. They already have Dallas county, and they're not going to make anymore inroads in Collin, Denton, or Tarrant counties that they haven't already. The republican grip on the Houston area has loosened somewhat. Racking up margins in Harris and Fort Bend counties are the democrats' best bets at being competitive at the statewide level and White is the only democrat who could do that.

That said, I don't think White could win, but he is the best Texas D's have to offer. The only way White could pull an upset is strong performance in the dem strongholds - El Paso county, south TX and the border regions, Travis and Dallas counties, not get complete blown out in the R suburbs (Williamson, Collin, Denton, Montgomery), carry Bexar county, and carry Fort Bend & win in Harris county by more than 7-8 points. Again, no democrat is better positioned to do this than White.

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DFW freethinker:

Ron Kirk would have been formidable against Rick Perry in a one on one debate, and he has a great reputation in DFW. Granted, he had a poor showing against Cornyn (and it was 2002, a VERY GOOD year for Repubs nationwide), but I think he could have done well this time around. He would have won South Texas, and considerable other areas in Texas. If Bill White is the best the Dems have to offer in Texas, they are in terrible shape. There have got to be better Dems (especially moderate women and hispanic candidates)to run in the future. Rick Perry is going to mop the floor with White in debates. They don't call him Governor "good hair" for nothing. Like it or not, being telegenic matters. Perry has it, White doesn't.

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DFW freethinker:

Ron Kirk would have been formidable against Rick Perry in a one on one debate, and he has a great reputation in DFW. Granted, he had a poor showing against Cornyn (and it was 2002, a VERY GOOD year for Repubs nationwide), but I think he could have done well this time around. He would have won South Texas, and considerable other areas in Texas. If Bill White is the best the Dems have to offer in Texas, they are in terrible shape. There have got to be better Dems (especially moderate women and hispanic candidates)to run in the future. Rick Perry is going to mop the floor with White in debates. They don't call him Governor "good hair" for nothing. Like it or not, being telegenic matters. Perry has it, White doesn't.

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DFW freethinker:

Ron Kirk would have been formidable against Rick Perry in a one on one debate, and he has a great reputation in DFW. Granted, he had a poor showing against Cornyn (and it was 2002, a VERY GOOD year for Repubs nationwide), but I think he could have done well this time around. He would have won South Texas, and considerable other areas in Texas. If Bill White is the best the Dems have to offer in Texas, they are in terrible shape. There have got to be better Dems (especially moderate women and hispanic candidates)to run in the future. Rick Perry is going to mop the floor with White in debates. They don't call him Governor "good hair" for nothing. Like it or not, being telegenic matters. Perry has it, White doesn't.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Rick Perry is going to mop the floor with White in debates. "

I don't know what makes you think this. In the debates vs. Hutchinson, all he did was not lose any support. Being able to recite conservative talking points does not make you a good debater.

You seem to know nothing about White.

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