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TX: 2010 Gov (PPP 2/4-7)

Topics: poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
2/4-7/10; 1,200 registered voters, 2.8% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Texas

2010 Governor
Hutchison 45%, White 38%
Medina 44%, White 38%
Perry 48%, White 42%

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Perry: 33 / 50
Sen. Hutchison: 40 / 37

Favorable / Unfavorable
Debra Medina: 32 / 13
Bill White: 34 / 17

 

Comments
Aaron_in_TX:

Perhaps Perry's popularity was overblown?

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Billy Chunge:

For anyone to be running to the right of Perry and doing so well is truly amazing in Texas. This race really is starting to become a comic affair.

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jmartin4s:

An upside down 33/50 approval/disapproval rating. This seems similar or worse than Jon Corzine's approvals. Right now I think Perry leads White because of name ID but if Perry is the nominee, I think he is likely to be defeated. Perry only got 39% of the vote in 2006 and none of those third party candidates are on the ballot this time.

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Billy Chunge:

Perry has moved so far to the right I'm really surprised he's still getting 48% against White. I really wonder if there are any moderate voters in Texas. With over 5 million voters, that is truly amazing.

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Stillow:

Lot of wishful thinking in this thread. Perry will wi nthe primary and go on to wi nthe general with comfortable margins in both.

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Xenobion:

I've talked to some Texans if that would be any reference to overall sentiment in the state but quite a few are fed up with Perry. KBH keeps getting endorsements over Perry since Bush dynasty have given her their blessing. Will polling data like this it shows how weak of a candidate Perry is versus KBH. Much could change before the primary.

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jmartin4s:

With an upside down approval rating 33/50, I don't statiscally see how Perry can win a general election in November. Its mathematically impossible. I think there has only been one time an incumbent with numbers like that has won re-election and that was Jessie Helms in 1984 and he had the Regan landslide to put him over the top.

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ndirish11:

Medina is making some big ground. She has been spreading the message of freedom: Lower taxes, smaller government, and the protection of our civil liberties. The latest poll showed she has risen over 20 points in the polls in just a few months. This race is not over yet.

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JSK2180:

Plus if I'm not mistaken the prmaries are open to everyone so dem's may come out to vote for KBH in the rep's primary.

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Aaron_in_TX:

JSK2180,

KBH has declined to initiate that strategy, thinking it will make her look too liberal for the republican primary electorate. She is by far the more popular politician, but not necessarily for the republican primary voters, whose movement toward Medina is stunning.

I'm not sure why she just didn't declare as an independent early on. That would have kept prominent democrats like White out of the race. Then she would have gotten a majority of independents and significant number of democrats and crushed Perry.

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LordMike:

Isn't Perry running for his 4th term? That's not going to help you even with your supporters, especially during a change year. FDR was only begrudgingly elected to his fourth term 'cos we were still in the middle of WWII. What's Perry's excuse?

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JSK2180:

He's been gov since December 2000 and won in 2002 and 2006 so he is going for his 3rd full term.

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moheroy:

Outside of his base in West Texas (which includes the panhandle cities of Amarillo and Lubbock), Perry is wildly unpopular with a huge chunk of the Republican electorate, both to the right and to the left of him.

Issues like toll roads, and the use of eminent domain involving them are a huge weight on him in Central Texas, his tax policies make him loathed by many small town businessmen, and his stacking of state boards with people chosen solely based on how loyal they are to him have offended many professionals, from doctors and dentists, and even surveyors. All of these are solidly Republican constituencies. This is a huge part of his unpopularity.

The problem is that half the Republicans who hate him are really really right wing and they don't trust Hutchinson at all, she is too much of a big government squish for them. This means that Medina takes a lot of the "Get off of my lawn" type conservatives, Perry keeps the rabid hard social conservatives and West Texas, and Kay gets the more liberal urban Republicans. If Kay was the nominee she would be guaranteed to win, but it looks like that ain't happening.

When it comes to the general election White will pick up the urban Republicans from Houston, and all the Democrats from Austin to the Valley, and West Texas will go to Perry and then everyone else will have to decide if they hate Perry enough to vote for a Houston Democrat.

My suspicion is they probably will, but only by holding there noses, and mostly because the entire Houston business community is in love with White and that will reassure business Republicans.

Personally I am a pretty socially conservative Republican, but I'm backing Kay, though if Medina starts leading her in the polls I might jump, just to drive a stake into Perry's heart. However I think he will ride to victory, and though I am the unusual Houstonian who detests Bill White, I'll unhappily vote for him over Perry.

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Farleftandproud:

It sounds as though Perry could be defeated in the general if he wins the nomination. I know Texas's White population is like 3 to 1 Republican leaners, but I know that non-whites in Texas are increasing each year. I think that having Perry as the target would unite the Democratic base better than if Huchinson wins. I am sure she is just as tough in her policies on immigration and other issues as Perry, but she comes across as a centrist even though she isn't.

16 years of one party control is a lot. Even Wyoming has elected a Democratic governor in that time. Hawaii, CT, CA and VT have had Republican governors for awhile, being as left leaning as we are. I honestly think if Perry gets the nomination, it would be a travesty if a Democrat didn't win.

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Farleftandproud:

The first time I noticed a public appearance by Governor Perry was when there was a hurricane on the gulf, and he was actually at a Houston Astros game. The press found him there and he said he had not heard of what happened. I wonder if he stayed to watch the game or went to the gulf to be part of relief efforts and declaring a state of emergency.

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Farleftandproud:

did someone say that "Kay gets liberal republicans in suburban Texas"? I didn't know there was such thing in TX. I thought they exist in CT and NH.

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JSK2180:

I too am votong for Kay. I don't know what I'll do if Perry wins it.

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JSK2180:

I'm here in Austin Texas, and a pretty mdoerate/Lib republican on social issues and a fiscal conservative.

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Jason:

If the GOP does run Perry again, which they probably will White might just give him a challenge. Chris Bell would have won in 2006. However, in the Governor's race Texas always has two 3rd parties it seems. If everyone would get behind one person to defeat Perry he would be gone! Hopefully enough people will get behind White to make sure Perry is gone this year!

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JSK2180:

I personally wanted Kinky last time!

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Farleftandproud:

I learn something new each day. Austin sounds like the part of TX I would most like to see.

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ndirish11:

Vote Medina! She as the momentum.

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Farleftandproud:

I like Freidman. He has some great ideas. In some ways he is a non-conventional politican like Jesse Ventura. I was quite the fan of Ventura, and hoped he had been Kerry's VP pick in 04.

Ventura borrowed ideas from the left and the right like having a smaller military budget, some healthcare reform and cutting wasteful spending.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"but I know that non-whites in Texas are increasing each year."

The problem is that even in a presidential year, they only turnout around the 30% level, especially in the Rio Grande Valley area where they dominate. If they could get that area to turnout, democrats would be much more competitive statewide, but given its history this is unlikely.

I think White could win any year but this one. Perry will do the worst but probably still win a close race. White's only hope is to carry the Houston area by a significant margin and the rest of the state at the level most democrats do - which means winning in all the other big cities except Fort Worth. I don't know if that's possible this time around. In this environment I don't think democrats are going to turn out at the needed level.

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