Pollster.com

That's a surprise, particularly given the polling outfit.

Maybe a lot of Texans don't want to secede.

Maybe it's a scare poll to increase donations.

The race is probably Perry +4 to 6, but I don't doubt he's under 50.

Perry continues to refuse to debate White. He demanded White release his tax returns as a condition. White released his tax returns from the 2000s. Now Perry is saying White should release his tax returns from the 90s. What his tax returns from the last decade have to do with being governor in 2010 is beyond me.

This poll was primarily focused on opinions of homeowner insurance reform, and was probably designed to further that cause.

What I notice is that White has a couple bright spots in the geographical breakdowns.

- leading in gulf coast region
- leading in central corridor region
- still a lot of undecideds in the south region.

IF (this is a big if) the margin in the plains counties is not too bad, White's favorable margin in his home turf might help him. White will probably not win but he will provide the blueprint for future democratic wins in TX.

Hopefully this poll is accurate.
Now, if only those voting machines in Houston hadn't been destroyed by that "mysterious" fire, White might have a chance.

Oooh look, it's another liberal conspiracy theory.

My Gosh. This poll makes about as little sense to me as the Washington and Cali polls showing fiorina and Rossi with the leads. This one surprises me in the reverse direction, seeing Perry ahead by only one in a Republican state in a Republican year.

Texas has a tricky electorate. I know there are a lot of fairly moderate-liberal whites near Austin, and pockets near Houston and Dallas, but Hispanics in Tx have been more conservative than in other parts of the country.

A lot of the results will depend on a lot of things.

I am always suspicious of polls that show the Republican close in a red state like Texas, but just as suspicious about GOP leads in CA, Washington and Michigan.

PPP is polling this one this week with their LV screen we shall see where they show it.

White is going to win. It'll be very close 50.5-49.5 type of race, but White will win. I base this on two things. 1. Perry didn't even have 40% of the vote in 2006. The main reason he won was that there were four candidates (Perry had 39%, Chris Bell (D) had 30%, Carole Keeton-Strayhorn (I) had 18% and Kinky Freidman (I) had 12%) in that election. 2. White is wildly popular in Houston (pro business record, lowered property taxes five straight years, mobilized Houston after Katrina and Rita) and the percentages that Perry will win by in the Houston suburbs (if he even wins those) will be way smaller than in 2006.

I'm not getting my hopes up, but being this was a Republican firm polling this, they must be worried.

It isn't impossible. Lets face it, Wyoming had Democratic governor for 8 years. If the Democrats can make it happen in Wyoming they can make it happen anywhere.

This actually doesn't surprise me all that much....though I suspect Perry will ultimately win by a few points.

While I think the idea that the coming election will reflect "anti-incumbent" sentiment rather than "anti-Democrat" sentiment is a bit of Democrat wishful thinking, there clearly is some element of the former. And considering that Perry has been in office for 10 years and is running for a 4th term, some fatigue is bound to set in.

Add to this the fact that conservatives don't much like Perry anyway for a variety of reasons and even in a fairly GOP state you have the makings of a race that goes a bit against the grain.

OIMF

I was glad Huchinson didn't get the nomination for governor, because she is one Republican in the senate, though conservative has been logical and sane. If she had become Governor of Texas she would have probably had to get blamed for a lot more things, like dealing with hurricanes, as well as human rights issues, like allowing someone to be executed who is innocent. I think it would have been a step down in many respects.

"for a variety of reasons"

His reluctance to be an immigration hawk.

There is good reason for this, and he's following in Bush's footsteps. If he became an immigration hawk, the border mayors and hispanic community would have reason to mobilize against him. They have VERY low turnout. With good organization, a republican would have trouble. Perry gives them no motivation to do so.

TX governors and the border region have had that quiet arrangement for sometime.