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TX: 49% Perry, 41% White (Rasmussen 8/22)

Topics: poll , Texas

Rasmussen
8/22/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Texas

2010 Governor
49% Perry (R), 41% White (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Rick Perry: 61 / 37
Bill White: 50 / 41

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. obama: 34 / 65
Gov. Perry: 55 / 45

 

Comments
StatyPolly:

Generics out.

Ras R+9.

Gal R+3. Enthus is 46/23


Basically, no major news.

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Paleo:

A four point drop in the Republican lead might not be major, but it is news.

As for the Texas poll, given Obama's 34% approval, there's probably a shortage of Latinos and AA's in this poll. Which is not surprising. I think White may come close, but he won't win.

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Field Marshal:

The TX poll is just -1 to Perry since last month.

-1 for the GOP and +2 for the Dem on the generics.

Found this to be interesting: 48% think Obama's policies to be extreme while 51% think Hillary's are mainstream. 10 points more than Huckabee's extreme number and 15 points more than Romney.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/august_2010/48_say_obama_s_views_are_extreme_51_say_hillary_is_mainstream

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Fred:

paleo......it's not news. it's been jumping around from +7 dem to +7 republican for gallup. rasmussen has been consistent around +8 or +9 gop, which a few outliers. as long as it's + anything gop for gallup, then it's not news. They don't seem to ever have a trend in their generic ballot polling

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iVote:

A 4 point tightening in both Gallup AND Rasmussen is significant. They don't usually line up like that.

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Paleo:

Believe me, if the lead in Gallup went from 7 to 11, you folks would be saying it was news.

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Farleftandproud:

I'm not sure about Texas's future for the Democrats. If Perry can have such high approval, I am not sure if even the Latino's are going to change their voting patterns. Perry has probably seen the anger that people like John Kyl, John Mccain and Jan Brewer have caused contreversy, he is going to go with the Bush strategy. Does he support amnesty? It wouldn't surprise me.

I think the best hope for a texas Democratic governor would be a moderate hispanic. There is a guy from San Antonio in a fairly conservative district. I like him.

I think White could still win this one, but there will have to be a lot of mobilization throughout the latin community, and black community, and even try to make a dent with voters under 30. In texas they are probably still conservative, but Austin and some of the universtities have a few progressives.

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Farleftandproud:

VT's primary is tomorrow, and I'm going for Markowitz. It could be a surprise since there are few polls. Racine is a good candidate, but the GOP LT governor Dubie has his own private plane. Scott Brown had a pickup truck but Dubie can go everwhere and think he can be in many places at the same time.

The Democrat should win, even though it will be close. Hopefully there won't be any left winged third party spoilers.

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AlanSnipes:

It doesn't look like the Democrats can win the Texas Governor's race, although I think White might make it close.
If the Republican wins this time, I hope he isn't foisted on the rest of the coutry like Bush was, with disasterous results.

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Juan Chin:

I guess I can LIVE with Perry as Texas Governor even though he election doesn't have anything to do with me. Go Perry!

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I suppose the lead isn't news, and I have a hard time believing that a Democrat could win Texas in today's climate. Still, an 8 point gap (with a Republican under 50) in Rasmussen's tight likely model is interesting.

I wonder as well about the big drop-off from approval rating to voter support. The results infer a scenario where 20% of Texans with a favorable view of Perry, and 10% who approve of his job performance, are nevertheless not supporting him for governor.

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ObamaisMarxistFilth:

Polls like this put the lie to the theory that it's an "anti-incumbent" wave that's coming, rather than an "anti-Democrat" wave. Perry has been in office TEN YEARS, and he's still leading comfortably.

Perry isn't even a particularly well-loved pol and he's winning comfortably against a fairly moderate Dem (by Dem standards these days). Wow.

OIMF

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DFW freethinker:

This one's over, barring a major Perry mistake. A charismatic, telegenic Democrat with a good business or military background that supports guns, low taxes, and is not supportive of gay marriage could easily win in Texas next time around (unless there is a very unpopular statist Democrat in the White House to hold them back). Their race or gender is not important.

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DFW freethinker:

I consider myself a Libertarian, but would vote for a Democrat that I thought could streamline (eliminate excess) state government and leave my personal freedoms alone. I would love to see medical marijuana made legal, get rid of some of the absurd alcohol laws, and better access to healthcare for the poor(and better reimbursement to providers from Texas Medicaid which is among the worst in the nation..if they get paid at all). The said Democrat would also have to firmly distance themselves from the current Democratic leadership in Washington and strongly announce that they alone would make decisions for Texas to have any chances here.

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Aaron_in_TX:

The main thing to look for is whether White breaks 44%. If so, then the republican demographic decline is indeed happening. If not, then it shows that demographics do not correlate to voter turnout and republicans will be in control of TX for a very long time.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Perry was more vulnerable in 2006. White should have run then. Basically all the complaints White has against Perry come from that 02-06 term, which was when he majorly messed up. The 06-10 term Perry really hasn't done anything.

White is hitting him on Trans Texas Corridor...wtf Perry gave up on that soon after the 06 election.

Main problems Perry has are that $15K a month mansion the state pays for him to live in while the gov's mansion is being reconstructed and his crony appointments to university boards of regents and other offices. Not really enough for White to run on in a republican year.

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