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TX: McCain 51, Obama 40 (UT-10/15-22)

Topics: PHome

University of Texas-Austin
10/15-22/08; 550 RV, 4.2%
Mode: Internet **

Texas
McCain 51, Obama 40, Barr 1
Sen: Cornyn (R-i) 45, Noriega (D) 36, Yvonne Adams-Schick (L) 5

** correct

 

Comments
Trosen:

This poll is ancient already.. a more recent one and TX would be pink or yellow..

I kid.. (maybe)

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DTM:

Cornyn under 50 at least gives Noriega some hope.

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The_Huntsman:

*sigh*

Well, I guess Obama will have to write off Texas.

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PortlandRocks:

Here is the state of the Battle Ground Race. Again, look at averages, don't sweat one poll. We are in GREAT shape. Let me put it this way. If McCain wins it would be the largest polling collapse in US History and turn the pundit and polling world upsidedown. I doubt that will happen.

RCP AVERAGES:

Florida 48.6 45.1 Obama +3.5
North Carolina 49.0 46.8 Obama +2.2
Virginia 51.0 43.4 Obama +7.6
Ohio 49.4 43.8 Obama +5.6
Missouri 48.0 47.8 Obama +0.2
Colorado 51.5 44.3 Obama +7.2
Nevada 50.4 43.0 Obama +7.4
New Mexico (5) 50.3 43.0 Obama +7.3
Pennsylvania (21) 52.3 42.8 Obama +9.5
Iowa (7) 52.2 40.8 Obama +11.4
New Hampshire (4) 52.6 40.2 Obama +12.4
NORTH DAKOTA 43.0 44.6 Obama +1.6 (OCT)

Indiana (11) 45.8 47.3 McCain +1.5
Montana (3) 44.4 47.8 McCain +3.4
Georgia (15) 45.8 50.0 McCain +4.2
Arizona (10) 44.2 49.4 McCain +5.2

RCP Electoral Count 311 142 Obama +169
No Toss Up States 364 174 Obama +190

How could ANYONE not, at least, be happy with the way this campaign has gone with 3 business days to go? Relax folks:)

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Dave:

i'm not relaxed.... i've seen what voter suppression can do... and i really want to see 60+ dems in the senate...

clinton was stopped COLD by 43 republicans in the 1993-1995 senate, then he lost everything when both house and senate went red.

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hou04:

Guys, you HAVE TO see this... McCain this morning:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Wheres_Joe.html?showall

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Stonecreek:

Here's some wisdom on this subject from myself, a native small town Texan:

This poll also shows that 23% of Texans think Obama is a Muslim. What it fails to ask respondents is what they think a Muslim is. Previous studies indicate that 61% of Texans think it is a sheet that is less expensive than Percale.

An incumbent Texas sheriff was defeated when his opponent leaked the information that the sheriff's wife was a thespian.

In Texas there are three kinds of Christians: Baptists, Catholics, and Jews.

Of course, in Texas Jews are not so much a religion as an economic class -- they all run dry goods stores. The classification "Jews" includes Lebanese and others of middle-Eastern origin, some of which are, ironically, also Muslims. But that's fitting, because they sell sheets in their stores. You see, it all makes perfect sense.

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Trosen:

Joe the Plumber.. another "Diva."

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Trosen:

Unfortunately Stonecreek is right.. outside of Austin, (parts of) Dallas, Houston, and San Antontio (sorta).. Texas is.. well... Texas.

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IMind:

Texas Obama only down 11, South Carolina too... so if by the McCain camps calculation PA, NH, IA, and ME are winnable swing states... than so are TX, SC, and AZ... woooo.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

This poll is similar to another poll related at the same time. The recent sudden movement in AZ could be a sign that something similar is happening in TX. Also, early voting here is shattering records, which is something I doubt pollsters predicted.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

On a sidenote, I got to see Noriega speak last night and met him. He couldn't be more genuine. He needed more outside help, Cornyn was (and still may be) beatable.

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Zeidan:

I'm a UT Austin student, and I'll just say that Travis county (where Austin is) is the only blue dot in a sea of red. When I drive to work or school I see so many Obama stickers/yard signs/banners which makes me feel like the democrats have actually broken through the threshold, but I keep forgetting that Austin is just different from the rest of the state. Alot of rural Texans are not educated enough about politics, and many still think Obama's a Muslim (even though most of them consider a Muslim to be any kind of foreigner).

While I think Obama might have a shot here at re-election (assuming he wins), it's gonna take a term of good leadership to put Texas at play in 2012.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

I grew up in a conservative town "out there"...I wouldn't say "most", but definitely more than there should be. Texas is changing and actually Austin isn't the only blue dot anymore (Dallas County, Hays County, El Paso, The Valley...also possibly Harris County).

San Marcos is carpeted with Obama signs and local estimates have early voting going 4-1 in Obama's favor. Also the College Democrats on campus registered 12,000 voters and lines for voting here have been really long. But, then again San Marcos is only 20 minutes from South Austin.

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jamesia:

So if McCain is down by 12 in Pennsylvania, and it's called a battleground state... Does Obama down by 11 in Texas make it a battleground state?

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Zeidan:

I'm not sure about what the 2004 results were for those counties, but yeah I know Dallas and Hays have been trending demographics and El Paso is on its way.

I haven't gotten a chance to look at San Marcos yet but I'd assume it would go democratic due to its proximity to the Austin audience.

I'm assuming you're a Texas State student?

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Yeah I've been here for a while, liked it so much I came back for Grad School. What's weird is that Williamson County is so red despite being close to Austin, and yet Hays County...which used to be reliably Republican, has gotten more Democratic in recent years even though it is suburbanizing and the 11th fastest growing county in the U.S. (fast growing counties are usually much more conservative). Plus, the University here which has long been a haven for the apathetic, is suddenly a politically active place. I guess Obama speaking here in March had a pretty big effect.

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jamesia:

I live in Austin, and I've heard Killeen is growing very rapidly. Does anyone know where people are coming from? Is it like Austin, where most people are flocking from California?

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Hays and Dallas didn't go blue until 2006, when they elected Democrats across the board. Plus Hays is in Lloyd Doggett's district now and Doggett is well-liked here. Our state rep. Patrick Rose is a rising star among Texas Democrats and Obama won here in the primary 60-40.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

"I live in Austin, and I've heard Killeen is growing very rapidly. Does anyone know where people are coming from? Is it like Austin, where most people are flocking from California?"

That's the area I grew up in actually. Killeen is hard to figure because it's primarily a military population...mostly soldiers from literally every state in the U.S. Killeen-Temple has always been a hardcore conservative area, and strongly patriotic in the traditional conservative sense. Although, Obama won there in the primary by a wide margin, which I consider to be a good sign that change is possible. There is a lot of discontent there among the Military over how Rumsfeld and Cheney handled the army in Iraq. Not enough to switch votes maybe, but enough to make people think.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

BTW if you're interested in just how many people are flooding here from California...here's a cool study that was done on it.

http://data.capcog.org/Information_Clearinghouse/data-points/august_2008/Can_We_Blame_California.pdf

Also for the record Killeen is now larger than Waco...so you're right about it growing rapidly.

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jamesia:

Yep. I'm expecting Killeen to be the next "discovered" Texas city... unless Kyle decides to end their dry policy.

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BigTex:

23% of Texans surveyed say Obama is a Muslim. I am so embarrassed.

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