DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
10/14-15/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
McCain 52, Obama 40
Sen: Cornyn (R-i) 50, Noriega (D) 44, Adams (L) 2
Why do they bother?
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:47 PM
so basically McCain is led by a larger percentage in PA than Obama is in TX hence based on McCain's logic Obama should go campaigning to TX
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:56 PM
Noriega has a real shot here. GOTV!
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:06 PM
Slightly disappointed. I have friends working on the Obama campaign in TX, and they swore to me TX would be within single digits by now.. lol. Oh well..
The polling was for the Senate race, the Presidential question was just thrown in.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:07 PM
Obviously these polls can matter for things like downticket races, and indeed Noriega being within six is pretty big news.
They also factor into Nate Silver's model and therefore supplement the sporadic polling in other states, and I suspect down the road we will see more of that sort of modeling.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:08 PM
Isn't this race within single digits? Pretend you're a liberal boomcrap... 12-4-4=4! This is a 4 point race!
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:20 PM
Here is a way to look at this poll. What was the Bush vs. Kerry TX # in 2004?:)
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:26 PM
Those senate race numbers are huge. Come on DNC, put money down on Noriega.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:29 PM
Bush 62 Kerry 38. Twice the spread of this poll.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:33 PM
In 2002, Cornyn was elected to his first (and hopefully only) term over former Dallas mayor Ron Kirk 55 to 43.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:36 PM
Insiders say that Texas has been trending to Dem hard since the bailout, a trend they believe will continue up until election day. That won't mean much to Obama, but if the valley turns out, Noriega could have a shot, as well as other statewide down ballots.
Posted on October 17, 2008 3:01 PM
Actually by Boom/Kip logic since the MOE is 4% and Noriega is 44...that means it's just as likely he is 48. And since Corny is 50 then he could be 46.
So obviously it's just as likely that Noriega is winning as it is Cornyn is...right? ;-)
Posted on October 17, 2008 3:56 PM
Hah @ IndependentThinker
Yeah, obama, go campaign in texas!
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:47 PM
I'm disappointed but not surprised. I was actually thinking that since Texas is infrequently polled, we might be able to surprise everyone and sent a Democrat to the Senate. I suppose it never hurts to dream. In any case, Noriega will have my vote!
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:01 PM
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