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TX: Perry 42 Hutchison 30 (UTexas 10/20-27)


University of Texas / Texas Tribune
10/20-27/09; 800 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
357 likely Republican primary voters, 5.2% margin of error
266 likely Democratic primary voters, 6.1% margin of error
Mode: Internet
(Texas Tribune: story, results)

Texas

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 52
Gov. Perry: 36 / 44
Sen. Hutchison: 39 / 27

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
42% Rick Perry, 30% Kay Bailey Hutchison. 7% Debra Medina

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
19% Kinky Friedman, 10% Tom Schieffer, 3% Mark Thompson, 5% Ronnie Earle,
2% Felix Alvarado, .3% Hank Gilbert

2010 Governor: General Election
34% Perry, 33% Generic Democrat, 8% Generic third party
36% Hutchison, 25% Generic Democrat, 9% Third party
36% Perry, 25% Schieffer, 11% Third party
40% Hutchison, 20% Schieffer, 10% Third party
38% Perry, 23% Friedman, 15% Third party
41% Hutchison, 21% Friedman, 12% Third party
38% Perry, 21% Earle, 12% Third party
42% Hutchison, 18% Earle, 10% Third party

If Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison resigns from the senate in order to run for governor and there
is a special election to fill her senate seat, which of the following candidates would you vote for,
or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?

13% David Dewhurst (R), 13% Bill White (D), 10% John Sharp (D), 3% Michael Williams (R),
3% Florence Shapiro (R), 2% Elizabeth Ames Jones (R), 1% Roger Williams

 

Comments
sasha:

This is perplexing. Obama has higher (barely) approval ratings than perry or Kay Bailey, but much higher disapproval.

Perry would hand Kay Bailey her hat in the Rep primary but she has a net positive approval rating and he doesn't/

Perry barely beats a Generic Dem (whatver that is) but Kay Bailey beats a Gen Dem like they stole something.

So I can only deduce that this is good news for John McCain

____________________

Wong:

Rasmussen has figured out a way to "randomly" select Texas area codes for their "national" Obama approval polls. These numbers seem to match. lol

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

Who the hell is Robin Medina? I live in Texas and I have no idea who she is.

I have no idea who a lot of these people are.

What is clear is that democrats have an inept field running for governor, if Kinky Friedman is their top candidate. It's interesting that generic D gets 10 point higher than any named D. Shows you how weak the democratic party is here.

There is also hope for democrats regarding Hutchinson's senate seat. I would have expected David Dewhurst to do much better than Bill White in a hypothetical matchup.

____________________

tjampel:

Well....Obama lost Texas by around this margin. So I see nothing perplexing about his job approval ratings.

Kay is seen as a Senator; her approval is based on her job as a Senator. Maybe Texans don't want to see her leave that body.

Governors are all pretty unpopular these days; doesn't mean they can't win races. Corzine is about as unpopular as a sitting Gov can be and might still win. Perry is unpopular, but maybe seen as a stronger leader compared to Kay. Maybe people don't think she'd be a good chief executive for their state.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

** I meant Debra Medina above. See, the name is so meaningless to me I mixed it up with someone I know personally.

____________________

JMSTiger:

@ Aaron_in_TX

Tell me if I am wrong, but I am right to believe that the Democratic Party is still about 10 years away from being truly competative state-wide in Texas and probably 15-20 years away being turning the state light blue. Until then, it is not surprising to see Obama and Democrats doing poorly in the state.

____________________

Xenobion:

Doesn't the Texas dem pary nearly split the state senate?

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

"Rasmussen has figured out a way to "randomly" select Texas area codes for their "national" Obama approval polls. These numbers seem to match. lol"

@ Wong: In this poll, the geographic distribution reflects the population distribution of the state. UT seemed to do a very good job on that.

The demographic breakdown also mirrored the race distribution in the 2008 electorate. That might actually make this poll slightly favorable toward Dems, but it's impossible to know what the turnout will be in 2010. It's likely to be good if the senate race is competitive. But given that Texas was not a battleground in 2008, it's likely Dem turnout last year was "normal" for the state.

"but I am right to believe that the Democratic Party is still about 10 years away from being truly competative"

@ JMSTiger

Yes that would be a correct statement, but you have to agree with a few premises. 1) that growth will continue along current demographic trends 2) that latinos will at least marginally increase their turnout rate, and 3) latinos will remain staunch democratic supporters (60%+).

If all those happen, which I'd say is at least 50% probability, then TX might be a battleground by the 2016 cycle.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

Given that McCain beat Obama by 11.76 points in 2008, the fact that the approval gap in 9 points is encouraging.

Problems going forward: this poll indicates 47% identify as conservatives (very high), and 51% of those who identified as Christians (81%) consider themselves "born-again evangelicals." It will be hard for any democrat to win state-wide with those numbers. Their only hope is demographic change.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Doesn't the Texas dem pary nearly split the state senate?"

The state house is split 76R-74D. I'm not confident that democrats will retain that many next cycle. State senate is much more lopsided toward Rs, 19-12.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

**Given that McCain beat Obama by 11.76 points in 2008, the fact that the approval gap in 9 points is encouraging.**

Oops misread it. The gap for Obama in this poll is an identical 11 points. Still, not bad, considering everything.

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