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US: 2010 Generic Ballot (CNN 10/30-11/1)


CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
10/30-11/1/09; 952 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

2010 House: Generic Ballot
50% Democratic Candidate, 44% Republican candidate (chart)

Would you say you will definitely vote for the _____, or is it possible you
would change your mind between now and the election?

27% Definitely Democratic, 23% Democratic could change,
22% Republican could change, 22% Definitely Republican

Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who supports President Obama, or
more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes President Obama?

54% Supports Obama 41% Opposes Obama

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

I heard last night an interesting tid bit. In 1994, the generic ballot favored Dems by 3%. This polling by CNN shows that data on the second page. I guess that shows the Reps do not need a huge advantage on the generic ballot to win a lot of seats.

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Stillow:

Generic balloitn gis hard to poll because regional differences exist.

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platanoman:

Can you stop being a hack for one time Stillow? I bet you didn't have a problem with the generic ballot when Republicans were at top a few years ago. While Democrats can lose some seats despite the generic ballot, you say some stupid sh*t

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Stillow:

If you cannot act like a grown up and make adult comments, perhaps you should go back to Kos where they support lame comments.

Everyone knows generi cballoting is hard to poll because every region of the country is so different.

Grow up before commenting.

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Gopherguy:

Generic balloting is hard to poll, but the democrats have been winning the generic poll for years. So, until the Republicans start to win or tie the generic ballot test, I think the default position is to agree that democrats are winning if the poll says they are winning.

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Gopherguy:

The run up to next year's elections will be very interesting. I wouldn't be surprised by any results (overall republican wins or losses) that happen next year, as of right now.

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Stillow:

Like Field said, back in 94 the Dems were also winning the generic ballot...and we all recall what happened there.

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Gopherguy:

I don't recall disputing anything Field said. I'm just pointing out that the poll is probably accurate.

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LordMike:

1994 also had a LOT of retirements and open seats that won't happen this time... Actually, 1994 happened 'cos Clinton attacked the base with welfare reform, a failed health care initiative, and NAFTA. Base voters stayed home, just like they did in Virginia yesterday.

Unfortunately, Washington will not learn the lesson.

As for the generic ballot, yes a 3 point lead is generally not enough on either side to change things, but remember that last year Dems had only a 7 point lead and gained 20 something seats as a result.

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platanoman:

Stillow, I can stand your partisan hackness when things don't go your way. You grow up.

As a matter of fact, the Dems and Republicans were tied in the generic ballot coming into 1994.

Gallup
In 1994, leading up to a Republican landslide, the generic ballot suggested it could be a very promising year for Republicans, as the party actually enjoyed a slight lead among registered voters in several polls. When the likely voter models were applied in the final months of the campaign, Republicans held solid leads among this group of voters.

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Stillow:

Well if you can't stand me, go hang out on the liberal koolaid sites....there are plenty of them. You seem to do quite well swallowing the kool aid so perhaps a site like this which has other points of view isn't really your thing.

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Stillow:

By the way, whats not going my way? Commenting that generic ballot polling is difficult? Seeing ulta blue states like NJ elect a conservative governor? Do you always go a little nutso like this?

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Gopherguy:

I'm with Stillow on this one. He didn't say anything for that type of response.

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Louis:

Generic polling is a problem for a nuber of reason. People who favor one party or another in general may feel differently when specific canidates are involved.
Ther are more overwhelmingly Democratic then Republican districs(i.e those where one parties candidate consistently gets 70 or more of thevote then Republican. This means that Democratics must have about a 2 to 3% margin just to stay even.
one the less if the margin is 6% that bodes quite well for the Democrats.
Also the poll is registered voters so liklihood of voting is not considered. If Republicns are more motivated tha Democrats as in Virgina and New Jersey that makes a difference

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Xenobion:

Generic polling made more sense in a world with not so many independents. That world obviously doesn't exist anymore.

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RAG2:

The polling shows that Nov 3's elections in VA and NJ had more to do with the economy and local issues than HC or other national stuff. Most VA and NJ voters, including many who voted for McDonnel/Christie, liked Obama and did not rate HC and other non-economic national issues very high. Economic impatient topped the list for independents. Besides, Corzine was very unpopular (I'm surprised he even came close as the election approached!), and Deeds ran a LOUSY campaign, spurning Obama's supporters and agenda, and relying solely on an anchient "sexist" essay by McDonnel, who downplayed his social conservatism.

In the one election where a liberal Democrat was pitted against a social conservative--NY23--the Democrat won. In fact, Democrats won nearly all, if not all, of the special Congressional elections this year. And Congressional special elections are probably a more reliable harbinger for 2010 Congressional elections than 2 gov. elections.

In the long term, demographic trends favor the Democrats and their policies. And if younger voters, minorities, and other members of the Dem base, looking at this year's results in VA and NJ, decide to turn out next year like they did last year, GOP gains will be minimal; in fact, a higher-than-expected Dem turnout may translate into Democratic gains in 2010. May.

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RAG2:

And if the economy improves by the second half of 2010, a lot of Reps--who keep complaining "Where are the jobs?"--are going to be high and dry.

It should be noted that Congressional Reps get even lower approval ratings than Congressional Dems. The GOP brand name is VERY unpopular, and the GOP hasn't offered any concrete alternatives to the "Obama agenda". What they have offered is mere chickenfeed: i.e., A HC plan that leaves 94% of the 47 million uninsured STILL UNINSURED, STILL ALLOWS HC companies to deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions and to drop the sick, and doesn't even save as much money as any of the Dem plans! And you can be sure that this time, unlike 1994 (the beginning of robust prosperity and HMO's), HC is not going to go away as a major issue. The ranks of the uninsured will continue to rise even as the economy slowly recovers, and the GOP is going to have to offer many of the things Dems have offered--guaranteed issue, subsidies, mandates, public/private competition--if they went to be taken seriously by voters. Even polls which give Obama negative ratings on HC give Reps even more negative ratings there--most people think they're just obstructing out of political calculation.

Long story short, however unpopular Dems and their plans are, Reps and their plans are even more unpopular. And in most elections, the "least bad" candidate wins. That doesn't look good for the "party of NO".

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