Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

US: 2012 Pres (PPP 11/13-15)


Public Policy Polling (D)
11/13-15/09; 1,066 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

Obama Job Approval (previously released)
49% Approve, 46% Disapprove (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mike Huckabee: 36 / 37 (chart)
Sarah Palin: 40 / 49 (chart)
Ron Paul: 23 / 34
Mitt Romney: 30 / 39 (chart)

2012 President
Obama 49%, Huckabee 44%
Obama 51%, Palin 43%
Obama 46%, Paul 38%
Obama 48%, Romney 43%

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

While i like Romney as a candidate, i think the others wouldn't be good nominees for the party. I would like to see someone else come in that didn't run in 2008. Maybe Gov Huntsman or Sen Judd Gregg.

____________________

taurus pt145:

Wow here comes Sarah. I know my personal opinion about Palin has changed a lot this week after watching her interviews. This poll shows that I'm not the only one who is impressed.

____________________

starbase135:

There are so many people and pundits out there who say that Palin would never stand a chance against Obama if she ever became the GOP nominee.

Anybody who polls 43 percent against the sitting POTUS has a chance and is a serious contender...

____________________

Stillow:

Her favorables seem to be climbing. I am also finding myself liking her a little more watching her media blitz...I'm waiting to see how she handles Oreilly tonight and monday on policy issues.

....and if the media pundits are sayign soemthing, then its a pretty safe bet that the oppositte is true.

____________________

lat:

Starbase,

I am with you on this. How can we ensure that Palin is the nominee?

____________________

Stillow:

lat

just be careful what you wish for lat...it wasn't that long ago you were telling me a republican like christie coudl never ever win in a stat like NJ. Obama's numbers are falling. I won't tell ou she can win, but just be careful what you wish for.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Agreed. I made the same mistake in early 2008. I was pushing for Obama to beat Hillary in the primaries because i thought there was no way the American people would elect such a person to the presidency. Look how wrong i was and look how we are paying for it in spades.

____________________

Stillow:

Anything can happen. With Obama losing support that definately keeps the door open for someone like palin.

According to Druge, Gallup is going to have Obama below 50 today for the first time.

____________________

lat:

Stillow,

You are forgetting something. Corzine's #'s had been awful for over a year. Christie won because democrats did not show up. If you think the same thing will happen in a presidential election you are crazy. I know you don't want to hear it, but the electorate in 2012 will be at least 30% minority voters accrding to the latest #'s I have read. This is still the 800 pound gorilla for The GOP and they seem to be tone deaf on this issue.

Here is an example- Unless the GOP were to run the table on every battleground state every article I have read suggests that they must figure out how to win PA in order to have a chance. Obama won Philadelphia and Pittsburgh by a combined 750,000 votes. It is absolutely impossible for a candidate to lose by such huge margins in these 2 places and still win the state. The largest growing group of people in OH are African American's, in addition in FL the 2 fastest growing groups are hispanics follwed by african-americans. These are three must win states and if you follow demographic patterns they are slipping further and further away from The GOP. Don't give me this BS that I am a racist for pointing this out. Obama won these voters 5-1 and The GOP better figure out how to not keep losing them by such huge margins.

____________________

lat:

Need I remind the 2 of you that your hero Ronald Reagan had an approval rating in the low 40's before rebounding. These #'s 3 years out are about as useful as watching paint dry. Polls are usless at this point, but demographic changes and population shifts are very real.

____________________

Stillow:

lat - just an fyi, minorities want jobs too!!! If Obama continues to drop like he is, then his numbers will be low like corzine's....and Christie and Mcdonnel won because Indy's voted against the Dems.

Just because your balck or brown doesn't mean you will vote democrat. They want jobs too! Bush got 44 percent of the hispanic vote just 4 years ago.....that basically ahlf the voting hispanic population. Use that as a watermark for now.

Fact is if you go back and read your posts you told me the same thing about NJ, how demographics made it impossible for Christie to win in NJ....No matter your color, you will vote your pocketbook...if Obama raises taxes on everyone and unemployment is still high, then you bet your hat Palin can beat him.....

____________________

sjt22:

Something seems off about these favorable. Huckabee has never had a net negative favorable rating according to his chart. Romney has had a few but his are overwhelmingly net positive as well. How is it that both of them are suddenly net negative?

____________________

Stillow:

lat - yes but I need remind you that Reagan's policies turned hte economy around....Obama's policies are making things worse.....he is doing the oppositte of what Reagan did so it will ahve the oppsotte result...we know what Reagan did worked................

____________________

Field Marshal:

Blacks are a DECLINING proportion of the population and the GOP doesn't need them to win. In addition, without a black man on the ballot, they turn up at the polls at appalling low numbers.

Nor does the GOP need to win PA to win the presidency. They simply need to win the inter-west like Bush did to win the presidency. The 2010 census will take at least 9 electoral votes from decidedly blue states are send them to red states. California is the only strong blue state to gain votes.

In addition, Florida is becoming more Republican according to Annenberg because the Cuban Americans (which count as hispanics) are moving towards the republican party.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Stillow, that is correct. With the unemployment rate near 11% in 1982, it dropped below 10% in under 7 months and under 8% by the time he was up for reelection. Do you think Obama's economic policies will mimic those successes? I guess miracles may indeed happen but the probabilities are on the GOP side economically.

____________________

lat:

Field Marshall,

You are dead wrong in your analysis and you frankly don't know what you are talking about. The GOP's enitre problem is that since LBJ they have been able to ignore minority voters because they could win 60-65% of white voters and it would be enough. It's not enough anymore. The Democrats have a base of white voters that is approx 35% at it's low end. They have consistently won black voters at 90-95% in the past 6 elections and hispanics at anywhere from 57% at the low to 65-70% at the high. Just by this alone all the dems have to do is hold these #'s in place and they win by default. Your comment about The GOP not needing to win black voters is nuts.

Again I will go back to PA and OH\
Obama lost white voters in both those states (if memory serves he lost them 56-44 in PA and 58-42 in OH), but he won black voters 95-5! He won PA by a double digit landslide and won OH by more than 275,000 votes.

____________________

RussTC3:

Wow, these are fairly impressive numbers for President Obama.

Even with a bad poll (this PPP poll laughably polled a sample of RV who voted 47/45 for Obama over McCain in the 2008 election) the President is still headed for a blowout against all the top Republican nominees.

____________________

taurus pt145:

This poll is almost a week old. Based on Palin's interviews this week I bet we'll see a big jump in her numbers in P's next poll.

Because of her rise in status I soon see the public debate going to a one on one Palin vs Obama media battle. Personally I don't believe Obama is up for the challenge.

I'm just saying Palin is sharp, really sharp. She is a much better speaker and easier to listen to compared to Obama who says hum uh duh a lot as he tries to recall irritating fifty cent words. Men you all know what I'm talking about if you have ever tried to beat a woman in a war of words.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Lat,

Im not wrong and i know exactly what i'm talking about. Which of us has the PHd in Public policy? I'm guessing it aint you. Blacks are meaningless to the GOP. While it would be beneficial for them to vote GOP, it isnt going to happen. The Dem party has basically bought them out for the next several decades. Hopefully black voters will wise up and realize the Dem party couldn't care less about them.

However, it is meaningless because the only reason that blacks mattered in 2008 is because you have a half-black candidate. Had OBama not been half-black, you would have seen half the turnout you did.

Secondly, The Dem party is increasingly shedding its white voter base in favor of far-left, single, young voters. Suburban families will break hard for whomever the republican nominee is.

Lastly, the hispanic voter is NEEDED eventually by the GOP party given that the Dem party is in the business of letting as many as they can into the country and giving them the key to the treasury in "free" public services to garner their votes. Bush was successful in doing decently with this voting group with 45% of their vote. McCain did not do well probably because of his immigration stance.

____________________

IdahoMulato:

@Field Marshal
You're dead wrong on many fronts. The reason why Bush got about 44% of the Hispanic vote is because he had promised them immigration reform that will make many of them citizens. However, during the immigration debate, the rheotoric from the right has really pushed the Hispanic to the far left and would be voting democratic for a long time to come.

____________________

saywhat90:

Okay so blacks are useless to the GOP. Go tell that to Michael Steele. Or Ron Christie. Oh and by the way because you have a degree in something doesn't mean you are right. The GOP are courting blacks and have been for sometime now. It is one of the reason why Michael Steele is the head of the RNC. He himself said that the GOP has got to court ALL ethnic groups. It's not enough just to get the white vote anymore. And you are wrong about the pop of black perecentage it has increased since 1950 and here is the data to prove it.
1950 15.0 million 10.0% - -
1960 18.9 million 10.5% - -
1970 22.6 million 11.1% - -
1980 26.5 million 11.7% - -
1990 30.0 million 12.1% - -
2000 36.6 million 12.3%
2006 40.9 million 13.4% - -
so yes you are wrong about the numbers on blacks and the desire for the GOP to win some black voters.

____________________

Bigmike:

A few days ago I was seeing comments here about the up tick in BO's numbers. As I write this the pollster.com chart has him at 50.0. My guess is the movement on the health care bills has pushed that item to the front of peoples minds and it scares them.

Everyone can see thru the CBO smoke and mirrors. Not that I am putting down the CBO. But Reid and Co. know that the CBO is required to do a 10 year analysis. So they wrote a bill that collects taxes for 10 years and only spends money for 7. Sure helps with those pesky CBO numbers. So are they only going to pay medical bills for 7 out of every 10 years to keep the spending in check. We all know that won't happen so the CBO numbers are worthless.

You libs keep telling us you guys are the big tent party while the GOP is old Southern white guys. You have the WH and both houses of Congress and you can't get your agenda passed. Neither the house nor the senate health care bills will get thru in their present forms. The prospects for cap and trade are even dimmer. Just how well is that big tent working out for you guys?

____________________

taurus pt145:

Field Marshall

Just curious, have you seen the Glen Beck show with the all black audience?
It was most interesting, many of the audience members voted for Obama but now have change their minds.
Obama deserves credit for getting more blacks engaged in politics. However, the more engaged the blacks have become they are also realizing that they actually have conservative values. I would be on the look out for a large black conservative movement. Funny how things work out.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Past results are not indicative of future outcomes. The US Census predicts the black population will be flat to plus 2% over the next 3 decades as they experience lower birth rates and less teen pregnancy.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Never seen Glenns show. Its on too early out here and i'm still at work. Like his books though. They are spot on.

You're correct, that is why Prop 8 failed in California. Hispanics and blacks turned out to vote for him because of his color and than rejected all the Dems' social issues.

I think hispanics as staunch catholics will eventually reject the far left anti-religion democratic party and either become indies or move to the republican base as the minority group grows in wealth and assimilates. This may take some time but will happen.

____________________

Wong:

@ lat

If our ideologically challenged friends on the right are ready to embrace Sarah 2.0, perhaps we should not argue with them. After all, she is the most attractive, charismatic candidate they have and she has a way with the camera.

The Wasilly hillbilly also has more skeletons in her closet than a Halloween store in mid-October. And that's about the time of year they will arise, in 2012.

____________________

lat:

So here we go again with the values crap. You folks really make me vomit with your proclamations that only republicans are the party of "values". Do you know I am actually a fiscal moderate and a social libertarian? I am a voter the gop could actually court if they could just stay the hell out of my wife and daughter's wombs, didn't try to stop gays from marrying, didn't want to put prayer in public schools, etc. At least I will give Stillow credit for being consistent on these issues and not a hypocryte. You right wing zealots want no government interference execpet when it comes to the most personal decisions people can make...

____________________

Field Marshal:

What's a an American patriot without morales or values?

A: A liberal!

____________________

saywhat90:

The race and Hispanic-origin2 distribution of the U.S. population is projected to become more diverse. As the Black; Asian and Pacific Islander; American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; and Hispanic-origin populations increase their proportions of the total population, the non-Hispanic White population proportion would decrease. By the turn of the century, the non-Hispanic White proportion of the population is projected to decrease to less than 72 percent with about 13 percent Black; 11 percent Hispanic origin; 4 percent Asian and Pacific Islander; and less than 1 percent American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut. By 2050, the proportional shares shift quite dramatically. Less than 53 percent would be non-Hispanic White; 16 percent would be Black; 23 percent would be Hispanic origin; 10 percent would be Asian and Pacific Islander; and about 1 percent would be American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut.According to the middle-series projection, the Black population would increase almost 5 million by 2000, almost 10 million by 2010, and over 20 million by 2030. The Black population would double its present size to 62 million by 2050. so for every year the popupaltion of blaks will increase till 2050. an increase of 2.5 percent each year(roughly). The fastest growing ethnic groups asian and pacific islanders only has a 4% growth rate.The race and Hispanic-origin2 distribution of the U.S. population is projected to become more diverse. As the Black; Asian and Pacific Islander; American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; and Hispanic-origin populations increase their proportions of the total population, the non-Hispanic White population proportion would decrease. Basically, according to the US census the only race that will have a decline in growth is white americans. All other will have a future of growth and an increase in a percent to population

____________________

Field Marshal:

Wong,

Didn't matter much for the Chicago Street Thug that we elected who had many more skeletons in his closet.

But just maybe the dems don't care whom they elect just as long as they win! Where have i seen that before?

____________________

lat:

FM,

"What's an American Patriot without morals or values?" "A. A liberal".


I am just curious. Do you write your own jokes or do you send away for them?

____________________

taurus pt145:

lat

a couple of free quick tips;

Use contraception

A little pray isn't gonna hurt anyone

Save the gays for later days

____________________

Stillow:

With Obama now polling in the 40's among the past few polls, there seems to me to be a downward trend. To get to the 40's would mean Obama has lost hispanic support. Blacks would be more likely to stick with him een if he screws up....to go from high 60's in job approval to high 40's means there has to be a drop in at least 2 of the 3 largest demographic groups. In this case whites and hspanics.


____________________

RussTC3:

Bigmike
The CBO estimated that the legislation would reduce the deficit by $127 billion over 10 years and another $550 billion over the second decade of the bill.

Although I must admit it's very funny to see some folks complain about the CBO numbers when they use to put them in so high a regard when the numbers favored their positions.

Stillow
There has been virtually no change in President Obama's approval among Blacks and Hispanics. The only change comes from Whites.

We'll see how it changes next week, but Gallup has the President's approval at 44% among Whites, 95% among Blacks and 69% among Hispanics for the week of 11/9-15 (53% overall).

Their first weekly numbers (1/19-25) had the President's approval rating at 67% overall (63% among Whites, 86% among Blacks and 74% among Hispanics).

Looking back at Gallup's data, the President's low point among Whites was 42%, it was 86% among Blacks and it was 61% among Hispanics.

According to the exit polls, President Obama received the vote of 43% of Whites, 95% of Blacks and 67% of Hispanics.

____________________

RussTC3:

Slight correction to the first part of my post. The reduction in the deficit over years 11-20 is $650 billion, not $550 billion.

So overall, CBO estimates the legislation will reduce the deficit by $777 billion over 20 years.

____________________

libertybrewcity:

Thank you for including Ron Paul!

____________________

lat:

You people on the right have blinders on and it's to your own peril that you do this. The Dems will more than likely lose again in 2010 (since 1960 the out party has gained seats in the off year elections all times except twice so for the gop to win would simply be following historical norms). With that said I am not talking about immediate elections I am talking about long term demographic trends which strongly favor the democrats. The GOP can keep bullshitting itself into thinking that the great revolution will come again soon, but its not to be. The smartest thing the dems did after 94 was to finally keep their damn mouth's shut on gun contol (they were losing union voters in midwestern states because they would not cede on this issue). In addition to minority voters the GOP got crushed among college educated women and people with post graduate degrees. Maybe the gop needs to take a lesson here and keep their mouth's shut on "values and christian" issues.

____________________

saywhat90:

Realistically we wont know how the midterm elections will go until I d say summer. If the jobs number is bad dems are toast. it may well be likely that republicans will be gone and be replaced with tea party conservatives.

____________________

Bigmike:

RussTC3

I was not doubting the CBO. I was stating that Reid and Co. know how to craft a bill to make the numbers come out better.

So we are going to add $800+ billion in spending, reduce the deficit, and BO's promise that 95% of us will get a tax cut are all going to happen. The math just doesn't add up. What are we going cut to make all of this happen. Defense, medicare, education, NASA, agriculture, homeland security, Etc, etc, etc. Give us those answers before you ram this down our throats.

And why don't the Dems just tell the truth. If they can get this passed they can come back later and change a number here, move a decimal there, and it becomes single payer govt provided health care. And that is what they are after. But they don't say that because it will never get public support and will have zero chance of passing.

lat

You libs can count on long term trends all you want. But I would suggest not counting your eggs before they hatch. There is no guarantee that voting trends won't change in the future. Who is to say that down the road Hispanics won't want border security to keep their families safe from terror attacks and keep drugs out of their kids hands. Or maybe they will want lower taxes and less regulation on the small businesses they own.

Voting trends in the mid 80's would have told you that the Dem party would disappear in just a few more years. Sadly, it never actually happened.

____________________

lat:

BigMike,

In the 70's and 80's the dems lost so badly on the presidential level because they did so badly among white voters especially in the suburbs. Case and point Jimmy Carter should have crushed Gerald Ford in 76 and he barely won. Fast forward to 92 and a guy named Bill Clinton came along and basically said "If you morons keep playing to the same old liberal playbook instead of being pragmatic we will keep losing" for the most part after 94 the dems have learned their lesson (I emphasize for the most part). The GOP on the other hand seems to be on this crusade to keep shooting themselves in the head. My wife is a great example of this. She is a fiscal conservative (much more so than me) and a strong libertarian on social issues. She is open to the GOP on fiscal issues, but is so offended by them on social issues that she usually cannot vote for them. She swallowed hard and voted for Obama, but it is people like my wife that the GOP needs to win over. Like I have said a thousand times change the playbook. Lay off the religious garbage, stay the hell out of people's personal lives, etc.

____________________

jmartin4s:

There are two things I love right now. The idea of Sarah Palin becoming the nominee and lat's posts.

____________________

alheimstead:

As far as the 2012 race, people will be more focused on voting for either big government or smaller government; for constitutional freedoms = Republican, or for socialism = Liberal democrat.......With Oprah's sudden announcement the other day, am wondering if she has any plans to be Obama's running mate.

____________________

Bigmike:

lat

I am not sure why Carter "should" have crushed Ford. In Oct 76 unemployment was 7.7%, which was down from 9% in mid 75. So the economy wasn't too bad. We had gotten out of Vietnam. And Ford was one of those moderate Republicans you libs keep saying the GOP should nominate if they want to win.

Your wife sounds like a reasonable person. I am not real big on the social issues either. Although I am pro life, I have never voted based on that issue. There are bigger fish to fry, in my not so humble opinion.

My take is if you believe in our system of govt you have to take the good with the bad. BO won the election so he is Pres. The supremes ruled on Roe v Wade a long time ago and while I would disagree with the ruling, it is what it is. The way to overturn that would be a constitutional amendment, and realistically that won't happen.

But social conservatives have the same free speech rights as everyone else. Look in the mirror and tell yourself who was the last pro life Dem presidential nominee.

I agree the GOP needs a new game plan. But it will never include a pro choice plank in the platform. We have to focus on the other things. Jobs, taxes, spending, bloated govt. In other words we have to prove we intend to undo all the damage BO and Dubya have done.

Did anyone else notice the misery index jumped a point and a half last month. We are more than a year past the election and every day the economy becomes a little more BO's baby. Blaming Dubya is less and less effective. The stimulus did not work and the deficits are coming home to roost.

And you want me to trust these idiots with my health care? No way!

____________________

alheimstead:

“”I was not doubting the CBO. I was stating that Reid and Co. know how to craft a bill to make the numbers come out better.””
--------------------------
You are 1000% correct. These CBO numbers are fuzzy indeed. When math does not make sense then the numbers are incorrect! Part 1 of this HC bill was hidden and passed in the stimulus bill a few months back. Part 1 sets up 2 organizations. First organization oversees the whole Government controlled HC. The 2nd organization sets up the structure that make up the panels and also guide doctors in every step they must take in one’s HC. It also gives big government complete electronic control over everyone’s HC records. HC Part 1 alone, would be the most expensive part of HC and probably costs well over 800 billion - just by itself. So, when the CBO gave an estimated cost a few days ago, they are referring just to Part 2. We are all screwed big time. Why do think Obama became so upset when Price Waterhouse took a look at this tax-HC-bill?
===============
“”And why don't the Dems just tell the truth. If they can get this passed they can come back later and change a number here, move a decimal there, and it becomes single payer govt provided health care. And that is what they are after. But they don't say that because it will never get public support and will have zero chance of passing.”””
-------------
Exactly, Price Waterhouse Cooper, #1 International Accounting firm and/or another private sector Accounting firm should audit this huge government tax-HC-bill. And while they are at it, audit each branch and office of the federal government. This fuzzy math has been going on for toooo long. I would like to know specifically where each $1 of my tax money is going to. The feds think our tax $$$ all belongs to them and it does not.
================
"You libs can count on long term trends all you want. But I would suggest not counting your eggs before they hatch. There is no guarantee that voting trends won't change in the future. Who is to say that down the road Hispanics won't want border security to keep their families safe from terror attacks and keep drugs out of their kids hands. Or maybe they will want lower taxes and less regulation on the small businesses they own."
----------------------
Recently I attended an international accounting conference in Philadelphia. All International members had the same 2 questions about America. The two questions concerned - [1] Obamacare and [2] The borders. Not one person could understand why our President/s and Government have not secured our borders. Some of these people were even from Central America. Only response was --- "It’s a political thing." Commom consensus was, America is stupid and acting reckless by not securing our borders.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR