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US: 2012 President (Clarus 8/14-18)


Clarus Research Group
8/14-18/09; 1,003 voters, 3.1% margin of error
353 Republicans
Mode: live telephone interviews
(Clarus release)

National

Obama Job Approval
49% Approve, 39% Disapprove (chart)
Health care: 39 / 48 (chart)

2012 President
Obama 47%, Romney 38%
Obama 53%, Palin 34%
Obama 52%, Gingrich 34%
Obama 48%, Huckabee 38%

2012 President: Republican Primary
Romney 30%
Huckabee 22%
Palin 18%
Gingrich 15%
Jindal 4%

 

Comments
Jase:

What we see again and again is that Obama and the democratic party are losing popularity, but the country distrusts and dislikes the Republican party and their leaders even more.

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saywhat90:

Even with his current approval numbers he still beat all comers for president.wow

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IdahoMulato:

The right wing fringe and their talking points are just making this country very poralized. That's why eventhough Obama numbers are somewhat trending down, the republicans are not getting traction either. The independents and moderates in either parties are worried about the yelling, shouting and using brownshirt tactics with "lynch mob mentality."

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IdahoMulato:

The right wing fringe and their talking points are just making this country very poralized. That's why eventhough Obama numbers are somewhat trending down, the republicans are not getting traction either. The independents and moderates in either parties are worried about the yelling, shouting and the use of brownshirt tactics with "lynch mob mentality."

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Stillow:

Its hard to do mock elections 3 years from now, the key in this poll is that Obama has once again polled below 50 on approval. A opposing candidate will not outpoll him for at least 2 years if not 2.5 years. Obama is a sitting president....plus there is still the anti Bush mood which will fade over time.

What should worry the left in this poll is that against Romney, who will probably wi nthe nomination, Obama gets only 47. If Obama continues his fall in approval, that number will dip. If I were Romney I would love this poll.

Polling 47 when you won 53 is not a good sign at all for Obama. Most pollsters have Obama at 50 or below now....except the big networks who are tryign to pump him up, but he is in trouble. At this point he is almost damned if he does and damned if he doesn't on health reform.

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saywhat90:

Your right the key word if his numbers get worse. If I were Romney I wouldnt be celebrating. 38% is not a good number for Romney neither. Mean he has alot of work to do and it means things would have to get really really bad for obama. And this is a different scenario then previouse elections. The republican aren't in a much better position as far the country is concerned. They are in trouble too. They haven't won over independents yet. Let's not forget that independent leaving obama does not automatically translate into votes for a republican candidate. Americans are not happy with either party right now. So yes Pres Obama may be in trouble for now but it isn't necesaarily helping the republican cause. And like you said we have years to go. The scale can tilt either way for either party. Basically noone should be couunting any eggs before they hatch.

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Stillow:

Yes, but in presidential elections people don't always vote for soemone, they vote against someone. Obama got many votes for people who just wanted anyone other than a republican in 2008. The key for a president is to stay above 50 in approval. When he falls below 50, then the other guy voters can kill him. Romney does not need to poll that high right now, he only needs to have obama poll low against him.....because Romney isn't doing anything, he is not campaigning, etc....

I just think health care is going to be Obama's Iraq.

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Wong:

If in 3 years the economy is in full rebound, which it should be, Obama will be unbeatable. If the recovery is abnormal, with lingering high unemployment, he will be vulnerable.

The problem for the Republicans is the early primaries will favor the far right in the party(Palin and Huckabee). Romney is distrusted by the Christian base who view Mormonism as a cult. For the Repubs to have a chance in 2012, they are going to need a fresh face and a stagnant economy.

Health care reform may be the center of the political universe right now, but my guess is it will be a distant memory in 2012.

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saywhat90:

No the key for a Pres or candidate is to get more than their opponent in an election. Bush didnt need 50% to win in 2000. And in 2004 his approval were below 50%. He still won. You can't just run as the opposing candidate and win. Barack Obama didn't just win the primary and the presidency by just opposing Hillary Clinton and John Mccain. And Romney has to win the primary first. He and Huckabee were the two favored last time to win. The fact is none of them are beating him and he is at his worst appproval right now. And no matter what you say 38% is not good.

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Xenobion:

Romney failed to win the primary by acting like a moderate Republican. I doubt he'd win the primary again let alone face Obama. I'm curious to see what remotely comes up to be some sort of leadership for the Republicans because they are severely lacking atm. I doubt the fringe clown part of the party would win the primary.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Poll after poll shows that none of the 2008 republican field nor Palin does particularly well against Obama. I'd wager McCain would probably do better than this group. The 2008 field was never particularly strong. I remember that both democratic campaigns in 2007 were expecting Romney to win in Iowa and NH; they were well prepared for him.

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Stillow:

You guys don't seem to know how this works. This far out from an election, there is no way a sitting president would be trailing anyone in the polls at this point. The key you look for is who does Obama poor worst against...in this case Romney, where he can only garner 47 percent. That is a full 6 points shy of his 2008 vote count.

Romney isn't i nthe news, he is not campaigning. He isn't out giving speeches every day like Obama. The fact that Obama polls below his election numbers shows he has lost support, not just among those who didn't vote for him, but among those who did vote for him. If at this point Obama were trailing anyone, Hillary would be thinking of resigning as secratary to challenge him in 2012.

People wanted Bush out in 2008, by proxy that meant a vote against McCain.

Obama and the liberals in the Dem party have taken control of that party from the more moderate Bill Clinton wing of the party. Being a liberal you can get elected in a year of anger like 2008, or even back in 1976 after Watergate, where the country wanted the other side out....but as we saw with Carter, the country quickly turns against libeal policies. Much of Reagan's vote in 1980 was against Carter because the economy was crap.

My guess is that Huckabee and Romney will join forces in 2012 and that will be the ticket.

You guys can try and sugarcoast this, but polling below your election numbers against the likely GOP nominee is a very very bad thing. Now if the economy recovers as it did for Reagan by the time his re-election came around, Obama will most certinaly win, because history shows us sitting presidents do not lose during a good economy, that is just a fact....if its still crummy which I beelive it will due to inflation and the federal deficits, then he will lose.

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libertybrewcity:

these polls are not good indicators...where is ron paul? i would put money down that he receives at least 20 percent support in the primaries if he chooses to run.

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saywhat90:

Once again Stillow you can't see the forest becuase you hate the trees. This is not like past elections. I would believe that in those cases the republican were polling well. That at that time people identified themselves as a republican much more than they do now. Republican numbers are showing little, if any improvement in the polling. Democrats still have a higher favorability than republicans right now as well. And like I said noone should be counting any chickens. And finally Pres Obama may still win reelection even with economy bad. We don't know what may happen. I wouldn't count it being the case but it could happen. but for right now having a 9 point lead over possibly your toughest opponent doesn't hurt when your approval numbers are at it s worst.

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Stillow:

You just don't get it....2/3 of the country doesn't even know who Romney is....he only ran i nthe republican primary....yet he gets 38 percent and Obama can't break 50 against him? Obama has lost about 18 points in his first 7 months in office....that is a huge and rapid decline...and he is still falling. I am not sure how you can view polling 6 points below your election result as being anything but bad news...against a guy who a lot of the country does not even really know outside the republican primary voters.

Obama is hitting new low watermakrs will all pollsters...and anytime you drop below 50 in approval you can lose...Bush approval was in the high 40's in 2004 and he barely won re-election with 50.08 percent.

I perosnally don't think Obama's approval will stabilize til about 45 percent. I don't see how he can bring that # up, because if he passes what he wants on health reform he ticks off the moderates and conservatives keeping him at 45, if he passes soemthing the liberals don't like, again he'll be stuck in the mid 40's.

His approval remains high in most blue states, but those states don't determine elections, its the 10 or so battelgrounds and he is polling poorly in almost all of them...FL, OH, CO, NV, NC, VA....he can't win with out those purple states leaning his way.

By the way, I don't hate trees, I just planted a new Afircan Sumak and a new Arizona ash in my back yard................

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Aaron_in_TX:

Stillow,

Just because Obama's approval is 47 does not mean that is the same percentage of people that would vote for him if the election were held today. Between 30 and 35% of the U.S. is going to vote republican no matter what. So I see 38% for Romney and Huckabee as representative of hardcore republicans and right leaning independents.

Obama may be 6 points off his election numbers, but the strongest republicans are 8 points off McCain's. Palin and Gingrich are off 12 points. They only get the hardcore republicans.

Opposing parties almost never get less than 40% in a two-way election. In the past 70 years, only McGovern, Goldwater, and Alf Landon got less than 40% in a two-way election. Note that those all involved incumbents. Incumbents are hard to beat. You have to have an incumbent who has screwed up badly, and more importantly, you have to have a positive vision for the future. Ford was pretty damn unpopular but Carter barely beat him. Sometimes, like Clinton, you get the benefit of a credible 3rd party that changes the playing field.

The sequence of events in 1979-80 basically rained sh** on Carter, particularly in foriegn policy. Reagan had a positive vision. He was not just running against Carter. Running as the anti-incumbent will only get you so far, even if that incumbent is not overwhelmingly popular (Kerry).

Reagan was also at the vanguard of a movement rising in stregnth and had very nearly beat an incumbent in a primary. I see nothing like that in the current republican party. On the contrary, they seem to still be lost and in disarray. Name me a republican governor or prominent senator or congressman that has the vision or charisma to get better than McCain's 46%. I doubt you can find any. Perhaps someone will emerge from the 2010 cycle, but as of now, barring a 3rd party challenge from the left or center-left, I think Obama's re-election prospects are strong.

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Aaron_in_TX:

I have a lot of doubts Romney can win the republican primary. Very few evangelical Christians will vote for him. They think Mormons are too off-base and basically not Christian at all.

Romney will have trouble in Iowa and South Carolina due to that.

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Stillow:

Again, who was the leader for the Dems after the 2000 loss? Opposition parties don't really have leaders of a presidential status, that is why they hold the position of opposition party.

Romney is most likely the nominee, because the GOP have a long standing tradition of nominating the "next in line"....

To answer your question though, Gov Jindal from LA, a young conservative with a compelling personal story will be a future leader of the party. He won't be around in 2012, but if Obama wins in 2012 look for jindal in 2016. Gov Crist in FL, highly popular in a very purple states who appeals to both the right and center-right. There are "rising" stars as they call it....

That is correct the other side will almost always get 40 percent no matter what. Elections almost start out with 40-40 and about 20 up for grabs.

I still say polling 6 points below what got you elected is a bad bad sign. Its only been 7 months and he has lost a ton of support. I was around during the Carter presidency and the paralells are scary. Since 1950 the country has voted for a liberal one other time, Jimmy Carter and it lasted one term. Some argue Nixon was a liberal, but he was probably more center-left on fiscal issues and not quite a liberal. Carter lasted one term, I think old habits are hard to break....the country will boot Obama after one term, he is just to liberal.

What is happening now is that his perosnal approval is catching up to the approval of his policies.....which hardly ever have majoirty support.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Carter is incorrectly remembered as a liberal.

If he was so liberal than how could Ted Kennedy have mounted such a strong challenge from the left.

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Stillow:

Because Teddy made Carter look like Ronald Reagan....you don't get more left than Teddy without actually being a pure socialist. And as tarnished as the Kennedy brand is, it still carries a lot of weight on the left.

I lived during Carter, trust me, he was a liberal...plus the guy was just clueless most of the time.

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