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US: 2012 Rep Primary (Rasmussen 10/15)


Rasmussen
10/15/09; 750 likely 2012 GOP primary voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: IVR
(Rasmussen release)

National

2012 President: Republican Primary
29% Huckabee, 24% Romney, 18% Palin, 14% Gingrich, 4% Pawlenty

Regardless of who you would vote for, which candidate would you least like to see win the Republican nomination in 2012....
28% Pawlenty, 21% Palin, 20% Gingrich, 9% Romney, 8% Huckabee

 

Comments
Stillow:

Not bad for the Huck...I guess it wouldn't be the first time some obscure governor from AR came in to steal the show.

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platanoman:

Huckabee has no chance. The man is a nut

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Xenobion:

Interesting to see the Republicans deny Palin so much. I understand Pawlenty because he has no name recognition but Palin has it all.

Huckabee needs to lose some weight again before he makes the move. That was one of his success stories from before, can't really use it if you're big again.

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Stillow:

Palin is still a wildcard. I can't figure her out, maybe she wants it that way ,I don't know. I just remember during the campaign she was drawing huge crowds and producing energy.....she probably saved mccain from losing by 10. If she did make a run and was serious about it.....I am not sure romney or huck could fight her off....lik her or not, she energizes those around her and her supporters are much like die hard obama supporters, they love her. My guy romney has his work cut out for him if she does make a run.

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Xenobion:

I think the warranty on Palin is expired and the dealership won't take her back. Her career is dead from anything except Alaskan politics and Facebook Blogger.

Romney remains unchanged, unscathed if you will. He is in an easy position to run for sure.

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Stillow:

Well I cannot count her out at this point. Anyone who energizes the base can catch fire real quick.

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sasha:

Stillow not a hell of lot diff b/w 7 pts and 10 pts..Obama 53 McCain 46. Plus, I think Sarah has no chance in getting Dems on board...and very little of gettings Indies not already on board...at the end of the day Obama wil have something to run on..Palin not so much..Huck, T-Paw, Jindal will.. Plus, I just think that Sarah is not following the advice of smart strategists to lay low do your homework like Hillary did when she got to the Senate...the campaign more than not starts next year..so if people can't see any diff b/w 08 and 10 then its over for Palin

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Wong:

Still a long way out. However, if the far right continue to dictate the narrative for the Republican party, I would put my money on the Huckster. He's a sure thing in Iowa, South Carolina and throughout the bible belt. Problematic for the general, though.

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Stillow:

IMO romney is the strongest of this unch in a general, his challenge will be i nthe primary. One of my best freinds who is liberal and supported hillary tells me she would have voted for romney over obama...don't know what thats worth, but there ya go.

Romney ill struggle in hte bible belt states though. I think he can survive against huck in a primary, palin not so sure about.

I still think it will be romney / jindal. Also for whats its worth, i dont think biden will be on the ticket in 2012.

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Field Marshal:

Stillow,

I agree with you on both Romney and Palin. I would like to see a Romney/Jindal ticket in '12. Romney is a brilliant individual (so is Jindal) and both have great leadership qualities. Romney can easily pick up disenchanted indies that are fed up with the far-left hijacking of the democratic party. I could also live with Pawlenty but not Huckabee. Not a fan at all. Gingrich would be great but he will be on the old side.

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lat:

Stillow,

I agree with you on practically nothing and I think you are a fiscal extremist, but I still happen to like you and think you are somewhat intelligent. Which begs the question how in the world could you give Mitt Romney the time of day? As much as I despise Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin at least they are true to their evangelical nutjob beliefs. Romney on the other hand is the biggest phony to come along in quite a while. He has had more "conversions" from being a moderate republican to now being a self proclaimed religious conservative. It's more like he is out of Massachusetts politics now so the crazy gop base won't accept it (Toto, we are not in Kansas anymore). Romney is shameful.

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LordMike:

Romney is weak both in the primary and general... If he couldn't win squat during an incredibly weak field in the 2008 campaign, what makes anyone think that he'll do better a second time around?

Pawlenty is probably their strongest candidate, and most despised by the base at the moment ('cos he tries to sound reasonable and rational instead of acting like a nutjob). However, he is not liked in Minnesota and would be in serious danger of losing his home state in the general.

Huckabee seems like a nice guy, but his nuttiness does eventually come through. He really brings nothing to the table other than being a nice guy, though. At least Pawlenty and Romney are talking like statesman, while Huckabee is talking about cooking squirrel meat in a popcorn maker... ugh!

Palin would get crushed in the general election... Indies HATE her, as well as 70% of Americans. Her little escapades and dramas are wearing thin even with her former supporters. I think that that even the base realizes she's toxic and won't vote for her. Plus, her evangelical vote would be split with Huck (another reason why Huck can't win)

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Rick D.:

Stillow,

I think you've got it backwards with Sarah Palin. She destroyed any chance McCain had. I know plenty of people who were on the fence until they heard her, and then, in the words of my mother "Oh my God, she scares me! Could you imagine if she actually became President!?"

As a Libertarian, I am more than willing to vote for a decent, smart, small-Government Republican for President, but so far all the 'favorite' candidates are ones I could never vote for in a million years. Palin & Huckabee = Religious whackjobs. Romney = About as believable as a third-rate vacuum cleaner salesman. Gingrich = Neo-Con incarnate. And I'm telling you, there a massive voting block of people who think just like me, who are ready to vote Republican if the party could only embrace ideas and integrity again.

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Xenobion:

Romney does indeed lack personality and the far right is VERY untrustworthy of him because he's Mormon. He does have everything though to probably be president, I just doubt his ability to not look like a used car salesman on camera, like in his, "Who let the dogs out?" comment from the primaries. Likeability has killed campaigns in the past...

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sjt22:

Why all the hatred for Pawlenty? He's the only one of this group who still has an office, and most of the rest have already been passed over by national voters in one way or another. Seems a shame he won't get a chance.

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Xenobion:

The Ras question is pretty self explanitory. People are using Pawlenty as their least likely because they have no idea who he is. I wouldn't confuse that result with Palin, who seems to be the hated one of the bunch.

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Stillow:

Pepole do not hate Palin. They may not want her to be president, but I think sane people find her to be a decent person and mother.

Huck is not a wackjob because he is religious. Most of this country consider themselves Christain. Because soemone beleives in that religion and tries to live as the Bible instructs does not make them a nutjob.

Romney moved right in the campaign, just as obama moved left....that is how you wi nprimaries, by moving to your hard left or right. Obama had to out liberal hillary and romney tried to out right the others. It was mccain 's turn and the GOP simply has a habit of not breakingg going with the second place guy from the last tiem around.

Romney will move right for the cmapaign and then to the center in the general...he obviously has appeal to moderates and some lefties or he would not have won in MA....probably the bluest of blue states.

Romney is an expereinces businessman and hta tis what we need right now. The economy is falling apart and our defiits are exploding...the world is about dro drop the dollar....inflation is aroudn the corner. We need someone with actual fiscal expeeince in there. Younger gopers like Jindal probably won't run for prez, but will be running for vp.

Romney can beat obama because when obama moved far left i nthe primary, he never came back to the center now that he is president. That would make a right leaner like Romney very strong. Obama is bleeding indy support, just as Bush started doing.

Roney also ha appeal to fiscal conservatives...and according to Gallup, 25 percent of self identified conservatives did not vote in 2008 because they felt they had no one to vote for. I did not vote for mccain. If romney can appeal to indy's and to fiscal conservatives he can bring back that vote and make 2012 a good race.

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Field Marshal:

"Palin & Huckabee = Religious whackjobs. "

Why are they religious whackjobs [sic]? Because they believe in God? Because Romney is mormon? Because Huckabee was a minister? Give me a break. I really hope the far left loons continue their anti-religion and anti-south rhetoric because their hubris will be there downfall. That and their atrocious polcies and leadership.

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Field Marshal:

"Romney = About as believable as a third-rate vacuum cleaner salesman."

Have you seen our current president? Has one thing this guy has said over the past 3 years turned out to be true?

Romney is a strong candidate in my opinion because of his economic knowledge. By 2012, if there is no recover in the job market, Romney will just hammer Obama on economic policies.

"Gingrich = Neo-Con incarnate"

What the heck does this mean?

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Stillow:

Newt is better off doing what he is doing. He is a good conservative intelectual. There's no doubt the guy is brilliant and articulate...but I don't want him for prez.

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Field Marshal:

Newt will be a little too old to run, IMO. I think the Reps need a younger looking candidate with more energy. Pawlenty, Romney both fit that bill in my mind. Obviously Jindal does too at 38 years old. I think his big chance is in 2016, if God forbid, Obama is reelected.

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Stillow:

I agree, if Obama wins in 2012 Jindal will make a serious run in 2016......but the Dems will tell you jindal has no shot since the right is full of racists......but ooops, he is govenror of a staunchly conservative southern state...figure that one out!

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Xenobion:

"Gingrich = Neo-Con incarnate"

Means he's a spending conservative and trounces states rights with policies like No Child Left Behind. Very different from your old-style conservative that is being held hostage in the Republican Party. These types of Republicans rule the roost.

And trust me, more people don't like Romney because he's Mormon on the right than the left. The left writes him off for his car-salesmanship. The right swiftboats him for his religious beliefs. Don't think of it so simply.

Anyways, many of you are too short sighted. The only reason Obama came to power was the republican's constant scandals, hypocrisy, and lack of leadership after it all imploded on itself. The party destroy's its leadership on a regular 4 year cycle now it seems.

The party has no chance in 2012 unless an actual politican takes the reigns of the party rather than radio/tv personalities. I enjoy a balanced legislature, because I think it strengthens both parties to really get things accomplished. But if you think the current Republican leadership and agenda is up to snuff you're nothing more than a partisan hack.

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Stillow:

Wow X, that was pretty lame stuff...not your usal good stuff you post. That was left wing nonsense. That post tells me the right is starting make you guys quake a bit. The last thing the left wants is a re-emergenc eof conservatism...because they know full well a solid conservative would make Obama look like he was a college drop out. Thats why the left wanted McCain....they knew mccains wishy washy nonsense would be easy for obama to trounce....you put a conservative against obama, espeically on fiscal issues....then I don't like obama's chances.

The guy is just to far left....But the fact the left dismisses people like romney so easily tells me that is probably who they do not want to run against...the left has a habit of doing that.

The left is already starting to implode on itself...you have hte libs fighting the moderates....not a pretty picture.

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Stillow:

Have a good weekend you libs.

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Xenobion:

I post many opinions but I'm just as critical to Democrats for other reasons but do you really think that the current republican party is the conduit of your conservative beliefs and have been somehow infallible? The only reason the left exists is because of the right and visa verca. A healthy left can only exist with a healthy right. These are in fact quite moderate views as a person who's disgusted with both parties. I don't shamelessly cheer any Dem because they are a Dem. I think both Pelosi and Reid are idiots and are as fake as Mitt Romney (sorry to say it but I hate metric speak).

I'm a realist, look at the polls republican party as a whole is as unpopular as Dick Cheney. People have left both the Democratic and Republican parties to be independents and end up voting for the least worst guy/gal. Pretty pitiful.

Republicans themselves wanted a new Regan from my understanding last year. So far they don't have one, so the Regan tent is pretty collapsed at this point with a mishmash of candidates that really only reflect a corner of each tent bringing no unification. The Majority Leader and Whips are just as unpopular as the Democratic leadership. Don't you think there is a problem here? How did the Democrats magically come into power in 2006 and continue to add seats to the House and Senate without a problem? But no its business as usual, nothings changed. Even if Republicans gained all three branches in 2012 they would continue to run the deficit because you know they still ran budge deficits from 1994-2006 when they owned everything. What would stop them now?

Fiscal Conservatism is dead and there's nothing telling us that it would suddenly come back to life. I mean you do realize Paulson and Bush created the Stimulus in November 2008 right?

Recognizing these things I think are essential to not being a partisan hack. You can believe in conservatism, I totally respect that. But Republicans fiscally conservative? That hasn't been in fashion for decades.

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lat:

I have just about had it with people saying that the gop owns christian voters and that only "values" voters who believe in god are true americans. I am christian, but to me my religion is private and the fact that I am pro-choice and have no issue with gay marriage doesn't make me any less christian. I think evangelicals have done to christianity what muslim extremists have done to islam.

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Rick D.:

Stillow,

Romney does not appeal to fiscal conservatives. I am one, and I know plenty of others. The Massachusetts health care plan he enacted, and claimed to 'love', was a terrible idea and far from fiscally conservative. Plus, you have to realize that many people will just not be able to get over how FAKE the man is. How can you believe a word that comes out of his mouth? How can we have any idea what he's really going to do once he's in the oval office?

Don't know how you feel about him, but the guy who REALLY appealed to me and many others was Ron Paul. Realize that, whether or not you agree with everything he stands for, he is a bastion of knowledge and integrity, and earns the respect of people on many sides of the political spectrum for being so. He continues to be the only politician I've ever donated my hard-earned money to. Yes, he might not have won in 2008, but after Bush, Republicans weren't going to win in 2008 anyway, and Paul could have been just what the party needed to get some integrity back, and restore conservative foundations.

I know politics is a cynical game, but some people have gone so far down of Karl Rove-esque political strategy that they've lost perspective entirely. It seems like some Republicans would put their party winning before all other considerations, even if they thought their party was wrong. What sense does that make? If we have an intelligent, honest debate about how to run a Government, then Conservatives should win, because their ideas make the most sense. AND, if our ideas don't make the most sense, don't you want to find that out? Don't we all want the truth to win? The football-game atmosphere of partisan politics we've created ultimately hurts everyone.

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Rick D.:

Field Marshal,

I have nothing against someone believing in God. Many people from many different walks of life believe in God. What I do not believe in is allowing faith to dominate reason. Some of the things that Huckabee has said are downright ridiculous, and if he used his sense of reason he would probably realize that. But he doesn't, and that's a tremendously dangerous characteristic for a President to have.

You have to realize that not all people who are against some of the rhetoric of the religious-right are against the idea of God. The two do not automatically go together. You can believe in God and also realize that the idea that man rode on dinosaurs 6000 years ago is downright silly, and a perversion of the scientific method in the name of propaganda. By forcing the association of God and this nonsense, you're actually hurting people's faith in God, not helping it. In fact, I would suggest that this type of thing ultimately does more damage to the Christian faith than any amount of left-wing atheist propaganda ever could.

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platanoman:

Stillow seems to forget why Romney won in MA. The guy campaigned like a liberal Republican. He was for abortion before he was against it. The guy is snake oil's salesman. Anyone who thinks he has chance are really stupid.

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ndirish11:

It's a shame that this is the best the republican party can offer. If Romney doesn't win the nomination then I am voting for Obama. Our country does not need anti-gay, anti-women leaders. Anyone who still believes women should be paid less then men are absolute scum bags. Huckabee is a religious nut, who is so far right on social issues, and Palin isn't much better.

I like small government and less spending, I really do. Its the far too conservative stances the republicans have on social issues that keeps me an independant.

Too bad we didn't have another Ron Paul type candidate. Like it or not, that is the direction the rest of the republicans need to head towards.

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ndirish11:

It's a shame that this is the best the republican party can offer. If Romney doesn't win the nomination then I am voting for Obama. Our country does not need anti-gay, anti-women leaders. Anyone who still believes women should be paid less then men are absolute scum bags. Huckabee is a religious nut, who is so far right on social issues, and Palin isn't much better.

I like small government and less spending, I really do. Its the far too conservative stances the republicans have on social issues that keeps me an independant.

Too bad we didn't have another Ron Paul type candidate. Like it or not, that is the direction the rest of the republicans need to head towards.

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