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US: Congressional Races (DemCorps 10/6-11)


Democracy Corps (D)
10/6-11/09;
2,000 "likely voters in the 55 most competitive Democratic-held districts and the 20 most marginal Republican-held districts"
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Democracy Corps: Overview, Analysis)

75 Most Competitive Congressional Districts

Democracy Corps:

Bottom-line, there is no evidence that anything historic or beyond the norm is currently in the works. If the election were tomorrow, Democrats would likely lose about 20 seats in the current 55-seat battleground, offset by some further Republican losses - resulting in a net loss near 15 to 20 seats. That is slightly below the historic norm and less than half of the number needed to threaten taking control. Moreover, the vote and incumbent job approval in the 37 Democratic districts we also polled in July is stable - without sign of a broad deterioration. This should give some perspective.

To be sure, there are serious trends that put some Democrats at risk, particularly an anti-incumbent mood that is apparent in all three Democratic tiers, as well as the Republican seats. The Democrats' image has weakened since July, along with President Obama's approval in these Republican-leaning seats, in line with national trends from the late summer. The voters here are split evenly on whether they want to reward their incumbent with reelection or vote for a Republican to control spending.

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Does anyone know how the Census figures play a part in 2010 elections? The results to the census obviously arent going to be out in time to redraw district lines so does the first election with the new districts occur in 2012?

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havoc:

I think that is correct. So state elections in 2010 will play a big roll in redistricting.

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havoc:

I think that is correct. So state elections in 2010 will play a big roll in redistricting.

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sjt22:

In addition to a redrawing of lines, their will also be a reapportionment of seats by state. These typically take place 3 years after the completion of a census.

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Aaron_in_TX:

There are a number of states that don't do partisan redistricting. I think the worst gerrymandered states are east of the Mississippi; I don't think many states could get much worse. Texas was court-ordered to redraw some districts after blatantly gerrymandering.

The reapportionment will be important, though. I think state control will matter most in states set to lose seats: ie: NY, OH, PA. The minority party in some of these states could have seats drawn out of existence. I expect NY republicans to have a problem.

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Xenobion:

I think this is quite telling. People are making a stink about 2010 but really we're looking at 15 seats changing hands either way.

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