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US: Daily Tracking (9/12-14)

Topics: PHome

National Daily Tracking Surveys
9/12-14/08

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
1,100 LV, 3%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 48, McCain 45, Barr 2, Nader 2

Diageo / Hotline
906 RV, 3.3%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 44, McCain 43

Gallup
2,805 RV, 2%; Live Telephone Interviews
McCain 47, Obama 45

Rasmussen
3,000 LV, 2%; IVR
McCain 49, Obama 47

NW Patrick:

I just have to wonder how these new registration #'s for DEMS will effect the election come election day. Kerry got the youth vote in record #'s, Obama may blow this away. Can someone explain how this is all taken into account? What about land lines? Do some pollsters now poll cel phone users? When I think of a land line I think now of a fax machine or my conservative grandparents.

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Inkan1969:

It's not enough to just let the McCain bounce wane. If nothing replaces that bounce he stays with a small lead. Obama needs to seize the spotlight back. I hope he does more of those large crowd speeches. And I hope his campaign pounces on the recent bad economic news, as well as spreads the "McCain the Liar" meme.

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NW Patrick:

If a 2% lead in National polls is McCain's ceiling after all the excitement of the convention and Palin announcement look for an Obama lead heading into election day. The economy, Palin news becoming more and more frequent with the lies and distortion. Things will rebound. I'd rather be Obama headed into a tie on election day with the DEM registration #'s and ground game.

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Justin:

Change from yesterday:

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
McCain 0, Obama +1

Diageo / Hotline
McCain 0, Obama -1

Gallup
No Change

Rasmussen
McCain -1, Obama 0

Average Swing: Obama 0.25

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boomshak:

Lol, DailyKos, just lol.

Let's go check the Rush Limbaugh tracking poll and see how McCain is doing? Lol.

Let's check the sample:

First of all, just 362 people surveyed per day??? And they have the nerve to call this a "tracking poll"?

Democrats 386 (35%)
Republicans 283 (26%)
Independents 330 (30%)

Wow, just 26% of America is Republican and John McCain is winning. I'm impressed. ROFLMAO.

Rasmussen says 34% of Americans are Republicans (and that was taken before the Palin pick).

That's ok, DailyKos only misses it by 8 - no agenda there.

Thanks for the belly-laugh KosKids, I needed that!

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zen:

Don't worry, Democrats,

Most of these polls - rasmussen for sure, don't include cell phone users.
In primary, especially in NC, IN, OR all the polls are less favorable for obama than result.... 4,5 percent less than result....
you know why? because youngsters, renters, students they don't have landlines and they are undersampled.... Especially where obama is ahead or competitive, the result is far better than the polls.

Check yourself.

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Snowspinner:

boomshak - Stop with the stupid dismissal of the Kos poll. It's run by a reputable pollster independently of the site paying for it - same as the Fox News Rasmussen polls coming out later today.

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boomshak:

Yes, let's look to DailyKos with it's tiny 362 per day sample with an overweight to Democrats to give us reliable numbers.

Lol.

From DailyKos site:

"NOTE: Sample: 362. Margin of Error: 5%"

Hehehehe, sorry that just tickles me.

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boomshak:

Snowspinner,

Do you REALLY believe that only 26% of the electorate is Republican? I mean, c'mon, I know you are a Democrat but you can't be crazy :)

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Bill A:

Try this from AP news

How white, working-class women view the candidates By The Associated Press

How much do you think each candidate shares your own values and principles?

Non-college-educated women who are considered likely voters:

John McCain - 71%

Sarah Palin - 65%

Barack Obama - 52%

Joe Biden - 46%

Likely voters overall:

McCain - 67%

Palin - 55%

Obama - 58%

Biden - 47%

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

@boomshak

I share your skepticism about any survey commissioned by DailyKos. But every single one of these tracking polls is WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR. It may be that Kos wants to produce deliberately skewed results, but they're apparently not doing a very good job at it.

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This looks correct to me.

It ain't pretty, but I think it's accurate:

September 15, 2008
How white, working - class women view the candidates
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 1:53 p.m. ET

An Associated Press-GfK Poll conducted Sept. 5-10 found John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, taking a slim lead over Democrat Barack Obama. Results showed that blue-collar white women were more likely to see McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, as sharing their values and principles. They were 10 percentage points more likely than voters overall to say so about Palin.

How much do you think each candidate shares your own values and principles?

Non-college-educated women who are considered likely voters:

John McCain - 71%

Sarah Palin - 65%

Barack Obama - 52%

Joe Biden - 46%

Likely voters overall:

McCain - 67%

Palin - 55%

Obama - 58%

Biden - 47%

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Snowspinner:

boomshak - As I've said in previous threads, without seeing the question phrasing I have no opinion on the answer.

I do point out that the listed percentages add to 91% - the 9% "Other/Refused" category is significant. But you can get the sort of variation you see between Kos and Rasmussen just in how you ask the question - registration vs. general lean vs. affilliation vs. traditional support, etc. "How are you registered," "How do you identify," and "What party do you generally support" are all different questions.

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Bill A:

And lets clear up some facts. I know gallup uses Cell Phone users. I believe that Rasmussen does as well

Just Click Gallup daily

Gallup Daily: Race Stabilizes With McCain Up by Two

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

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If Obama and Biden don't connect with white working women, all will be lost.

I think they can do it; but it's only a guess on my part.

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irishanalyst:

Gallups internals(party ID) don't add up and Ras is moving the goalposts to accomodate McCain.

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Yes, several of the polls are being Jimmied by Conservatives.

Nevertheless, there is a Wal-Mart, White Working Women (WM-WWW) gap.

Some way to get through to Wal-Mart White Working Women should be on the drawing board.

You don't have to win them; you just have to get some of them away from the Repugnantcans.

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boskop:

RE: hillary stumping in ohio

you know that woman is old world. i love her but even if she were at the bottom of the ticket i'd never vote for it. i wanted her numero uno.

\right now, she is lettin' the man walk right on over her again.

what does she owe this ticket? four years time is long, no one would nay say a man for not pulling out the stops for obama. hasn't she done enough just by not sticking a knife in his back? hell, she speechified and campaigned for him.

so how come poor hillary has to take her whooping and keep coming back with her apron on and smiling yet as she serves up obama's dinner (ie votes)?

i wish hillary would once, just once get mad and walk out on a guy who's hurt her.

her appearance in ohio leaves me wondering if others feel like i do.

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clesky:

Well...this is awkward.

From the Post today:

WHILE campaigning in public for a speedy withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, Sen. Barack Obama has tried in private to persuade Iraqi leaders to delay an agreement on a draw-down of the American military presence.

According to Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, Obama made his demand for delay a key theme of his discussions with Iraqi leaders in Baghdad in July.

"He asked why we were not prepared to delay an agreement until after the US elections and the formation of a new administration in Washington," Zebari said in an interview.

Obama insisted that Congress should be involved in negotiations on the status of US troops - and that it was in the interests of both sides not to have an agreement negotiated by the Bush administration in its "state of weakness and political confusion."

"However, as an Iraqi, I prefer to have a security agreement that regulates the activities of foreign troops, rather than keeping the matter open." Zebari says.

Though Obama claims the US presence is "illegal," he suddenly remembered that Americans troops were in Iraq within the legal framework of a UN mandate. His advice was that, rather than reach an accord with the "weakened Bush administration," Iraq should seek an extension of the UN mandate.

While in Iraq, Obama also tried to persuade the US commanders, including Gen. David Petraeus, to suggest a "realistic withdrawal date." They declined.

Obama has made many contradictory statements with regard to Iraq. His latest position is that US combat troops should be out by 2010. Yet his effort to delay an agreement would make that withdrawal deadline impossible to meet.

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Hillary is voting her conscience. Try and be respectful to her. I am personally offended by the way you are talking about her.

The word "apron" is a clear insult!!!!

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clesky:

Using Hillary and the word conscience in the same sentence is an insult.

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Mike_in_CA:

boomshak,

the 1,000 person sample for the Kos poll is far far far to small. Only laughable, you say. But yeh Diageo's 906-person sample is completely acceptable?

____________________

The fact that Gallup and Ras have been tracking McCain +2 or more for the past few days seems to indicate a stable if slight lead. I believe that a Gallup lead at this point in the race has held for most elections since '68.

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sherriot:

Clesky,
You forgot to mention it was the New York Post.

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Bill A:

Meanwhile Suntimes of Las Vegas is reporting that Zogby and other pollsters are moving Nevaa into the red column. McCain is up by over 5% there.

Add to that Real Politics has moved Minnesota to a toss up state

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boomshak:

Am I the only one that thinks this is funny?

an outstanding collection of beverage alcohol brands across spirits, wines, and beer
categories. These brands include Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, J&B, Baileys, Cuervo,
Tanqueray, Captain Morgan, Crown Royal, Beaulieu Vineyard and Sterling Vineyards wines.
Diageo is a global company, trading in more than 200 countries around the world. The
company is listed on both the New York Stock Exchange (DEO) and the London Stock
about Diageo, its people, brands, and performance, visit us at www.diageo.com."

I dunno, that makes me chuckle. When liquor manufacturers tell me what's going on politically, I always listen.

Heheh.

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kerrchdavis:

What Hilary is doing is completely commendable in my book. She is not willing to see this country and it's people suffer through 4 more years of failed policies so that she could stand to benefit politically. I would hope that most of us would act just as ethically.

Why wouldn't she help Obama campaign? During the primary campaign, both her and Obama constantly highlighted the fact that, despite their differences, they were a hell of a lot more similar in policy and principle in comparison to McCain.

This just brings up the fact that, between her and Obama, there are a ton of similarities politically. And Hilary would be the first to tell you that if you care about her policies, her vision and her ambition for America, you would vote for Obama. The same way if you like the policies of GWB, you should vote for the candidate that is most similar to him politically: John McCain.

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KipTin:

All four daily polls are within margin of error... so call it like it is--- a statistical tie.
------------

Remember that RV (registered voters) would be a different ratio of political ideology from LV (likely voters).
------------

The idea that reputable pollsters are "rigging" their polls is ridiculous. Any political bias is a natural by-product of methodology and not a purposeful attempt. What would be the point anyway? The more accurate the poll the better for business (and yes polling is a profit-making business for many, while others are university-based polls which also seek accuracy.)
------------

Why does Obamanation assume that only liberals use cellphones?
------------

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kerrchdavis:

@ Kiptin

I could not agree with you more on the "riggin poll" issue. I don't think anyone, kos or fox or whoever, is consciously trying to screw up polls.

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boomshak:

Mike_in_CA,

Since when did I say Hotline's poll was acceptable? They also give a 9 point sampling edge to Democrats.

Hotline is a joke too.

Oh, BTW, Hotline does ATLEAST 900 VOTERS PER DAY, DailyKos does only 360 per day (which is a joke). Next time read better before you embarrass yourself publicly.

____________________

clesky:

@ sherriot,
If you feel that the Post is not as trustworthy as say.. the Times, then just go to MichealMoore.com, its on there too....or does Mikey Moore lean right also?

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

Rest easy: The fundamentals of John McCain's lead are as strong as those of the economy.

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atreides:

I would still like to see the Rasmussen formula for eliminating Obama voters as not likely. If she changed his party id spread that now favors Repubs more than it did, then why doesn't he change his AA participation rate to at least that of the Caucasian rate. But more to the point, can McCain take more 300 pt down days on the Dow. How many more go before voters have had enough. Kramer says AIG and Citi can't be allowed to fail. AIG has lost half of its value today. Here's the thing. Are Republicans oblivious to the derivative based debacle that's going on right now? Can they make a plausible case that this somehow the Dems fault? How the polling is not reflecting this is almost beyond comprehension.

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cmbat:

@boskop-

Just so we're clear. NO ONE feels like you. That much is obvious.

____________________

cmbat:

@boomshak-

Hey...Boomshak...have you ever looked at what the final percentage of voters by party were in 2004? Do you really think it's going to lean more toward the R's this time? Come on, dude, wake up.

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player:

I just read the NY Post article. It was put out this morning so it has reached the tv media yet. This could be a real problem for Obama. I am sure that it will be on Fox News and CNN this evening or tomorrow. It might just be the straw that broke the camels hump.

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cmbat:

@KipTin-

It's pretty much a given that the cellphone only crowd is younger, upper middle, educated America. Most studies show that they are about 59% Obama. So it is a big, important number. Polling companies are NOT supposed to call cell phones, no matter what Gallup says. You aren't supposed to encourage people driving in traffic to talk politics.

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boomshak:

cmbat,

It is about 3-5 in favor of Democrats right now according the Gallup and Rasmussen.

You wake up, lol.

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boomshak:

cmbat,

I get called my pollsters all the time (can tell by the Caller ID) and I don't asnwer the phone. The Republican base is more prosperous and more screen their calls with Caller ID.

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sean2112:

Aren't all national polls kind of useless anyway? Like for serious, even the biggest one's interview less then 4000 people in a nation of over 300 million. It isn't an exact science, they could be completely wrong or dead on as far as we know. State polls are a little more dependable just because they have a smaller pool to choose from.

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boomshak:

Bloomberg agrees with McCain: Economy 'fundamentally...strong'

I just now asked the New York mayor, a former Wall Street hand who's been in the mix in the current crisis, whether he agrees with McCain that the fundamentals of the American economy are strong.

"I do agree that fundamentally America has an economy that is strong," he said. "America’s great strength is its diversity, its hard work, its good financial statements, its broad capital markets,its enormous natural resources" and its work ethic, he said at an afternoon press conference devoted to reassuring New Yorkers that the city's finances and its economy are intact.

"I'd rather play America's hand than any other country," he said. "Without problems? No."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Bloomberg_agrees_with_McCain_Economy_fundamentallystrong.html?showall

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cmbat:

@boomshak-

Try again and actually read my question. I didn't ask what the pollsters thought the R/D/I spread would be this time. Never mind, if you can't read, you're definitely voting for McCain anyway. Forget logic.

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clesky:

@ atreids,
yes, that case can be made.

1) America elected a democratic congress two years ago...what have they done beyond having press conferences to blame everything on Bush.

2) Who controlls ACORN and other low income organization groups that pressured lenders to approve questionable loans on the promise that the government would back them, while boosting their credentials in the predominatly poor neighborhoods they represented? Democrats and/or congress.

3) Who still insists that offshore drilling is wrong, when the majority of Americans support it? Democrats and/or congress.

4) Who keeps telling America we are in a recession when we are not, lowering consumer confidence and helping boost their political stance of "change". Democrats and/or congress. Many polls show that most citizens believe America is worse off economically, but that they are not individually.

5) Two years ago the democrats talked America into believing that they would clean up congress and that we needed "change" in Washington for a stronger America. Where is the change? Is America stronger? Does Obama have it? Is his change better than the change that congress had? Is there really any change left?

6) Oil just went below $96.00 a barrel. Can we blame this on Bush? ____________________ ItsTheEconomyStupid: boomshak, I've never heard anybody suggest a correlation between caller-id-affinity and partisan identification. Have you something to back that up? Wow, you get "called by pollsters all the time"? Polling firms are probably making a couple thousand calls a night during the height of the campaign season, but it be would an astounding statistical anomaly if one person in a nation of 300 million were routinely included in their samples. Amazing! ____________________ boomshak: Here's my summary of the Sunday Political Talk Shows (CBS, NBC, ABC, MSNBC, CNN): "Sarah Palin is the Devil". ____________________ clesky: @ boomshak This is the same tactic the press used against Bush, and he still won...twice! Just goes to show that backbone Americans (for those confused, see "Red States") feel that the press is best taken with a grain of salt. The yelling, screaming, blowing snot bubbles, and finger pointing of the press will not have that big of an influence on the election...in fact it may work against, just as it did in the past. ____________________ Tyler: @clesky 1) You can complain about do-nothing congresses when their legislation stops being obstructed by filibusters and vetoes. If anything, the state of the current congress is even more an argument for a Democratic president. 2) And which party is the champion of deregulation and "market forces" except when it comes time to bail out big corporations who gambled and lost? 3) An even larger majority of Americans wants out of Iraq. Which party continually blocks efforts to set a withdrawl timetable? 4) The pedantic "not technically a recession" line doesn't hold any water. If the economy is an important issue to a voter, he will vote based on the economy he experiences - not based on which side of a semantic squabble he subscribes to. 5) See 1 6) While$96/barrel seems good compared to three months ago, remember that six years ago prior to the invasion of Iraq, oil was $20/barrel. Even a year ago it was only$60/barrel. And it's not like the spike up to almost $150/barrel, thanks to the administration's failure to curtail speculation isn't going to have lasting effects, even if the price settles back to under$100/barrel.

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marctx:

I agree with boskop. It's sad to see Hillary and Bill forced to support Obama. We all no they don't.

I'll vote for Hillary in 2012 or Sarah Palin if she doesn't run.

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boomshak:

Lol, I just read the article entitled, "McCain says Obama did not call Palin a pig!"

What utter BS.

That isn't what the article says at all. The article says that McCain thinks Obama did intend to smear Palin.

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thoughtful:

With regards to the Economy and Energy is this not the same Political Party and Government whose Energy policy was Driven by ENRON?

It is the Governments job to regulate.Unfortunately we have had a President who has been Absent With Out Leave. AWOL before 9/11,AWOL when the Energy market was being manulipated and the taxpayers ripped off for 100s of billion dollars; AWOL at holding AlQaeda in their Afghan and Pakistan hideouts; AWOL on Banking Regulations: AWOL in providing a progressive tax regime as opposed to a regressive tax regime; AWOL on US infrastructure renewal; AWOL on Katrina and the list goes on and where was John McCain celebrating his birthday with GW Bush! Not Interested in the economy, obsessed with waging an illegal war of choice in Iraq.

As the banks deleverage, the US economy and consumer dependent on credit will almost assuredly collapse.

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boomshak:

You guys do realize that NONE of this stuff we are arguing about today will make ANY difference two months from now right?

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clesky:

@ Tyler,

1) Congress went on summer vacation, rather than confront issues sent to them in an attempt to draw out taliking points for Obama.

2) Bailing out the mortgage giants was a necessary step that stopped the financial bleeding caused by the above mentioned groups. To have not acted would have caused an even bigger economic disaster (I must be honest here, along with the ACORN groups, corporate greed WAS also a big part of the mortgage failure).

3) Um....according to my above post, Obama did when talking to the Iraqi P.M.

4) The health of the economy is actually based on a formula, not what the democrats or news want America to believe. (Once again, being honest, EVERY politician in my lifetime has run on the premise of a bad economy and that they are the one to fix it, so this is not new, but it does not equal change either)

5) Congress has not called for any legislation that helps America. They have spent the last two years attacking Bush in an attempt to pave the road for Obama. (being honest yet again, not unlike the Republicans did against Clinton)

6) I believe your facts are a little off. The war had nothing to do with prices. In fact, in
2001: $23.00 2002:$22.81
2003: $27.69 2004:$37.66
2005: $50.04 2006:$58.30
2007: $64.20 As you can see, blaming the war is incorrect. China and demand issues are the most likely reason. Markets should not be controlled by the government, as they always correct themselves...like oil prices have. ____________________ clesky: Good point boomshak...but it passes the time. When pressed, I'm sure everyone on here would agree that ALL politicians, no matter what party, care more about getting elected than they do about America. Maybe we should try 4 years without a president...couldn't be any worse. ____________________ Tybo: "When pressed, I'm sure everyone on here would agree that ALL politicians, no matter what party, care more about getting elected than they do about America. Maybe we should try 4 years without a president...couldn't be any worse. " I'd like to try that.. or the British system, where the head of the party is the head of the govt, and not elected per se ____________________ thoughtful: You know its amazing we get sold a pup by some Iraqi exiles, that Sadaam is building weapons of mass destruction, that are forces are going to be cheered entering and liberating Iraqi cities and you guys still believe the cr** that the Iraqi politicians put out? don't insult your own intelligence! ____________________ Tybo: Tyler: 1) You can complain about do-nothing congresses when their legislation stops being obstructed by filibusters and vetoes. ........ no filibuster and no veto stopped Obama from introducing legislation to end the Iraq war. He simply didn't do it. ____________________ thoughtful: TYBO Why introduce a Bill certain to fail? I think they must be putting something in the water supply. So many people in denial! ____________________ clesky: @ Thoughtful Actually, Saddam Hussein leaked information about WMD's on purpose to make Iran think twice about invading. It was a bluff that worked too well. After he was captured, he stated that he didn't correct the misinformation because he really didn't believe that America would attack. The forces WERE cheered upon entering Iraqi cities. This cr** is posted on several sites right now, including Michael Moore's. What would be the Iraqi P.M.'s motivation for lying? ____________________ damitajo1: I'm tired of all of the methodological apologia concerning cell phones. Many of these pollsters were highly accurate during the primaries - after some huge missteps early on. Also, young people presumably had cell phones in 2004, but I believe most polls had Bush ahead near the end. And the 2006 midterms were predicted accurately by many as well. McCain is ahead. And it is a big bounce. Obama was leading by 8-10 the day before Palin was announced. Now he's losing by around 3. That's a 11-13 point swing. Besides, with the economy in the toilet, Bush's favorability ratings under the toilet, and the Iraq war in the sewer, Obama should be leading even without youth being sampled. As I said all along - the Republicans would unite around McCain (so many people doubted that). And as I said before - Obama will have a hard time convincing moderates to vote for him. I truly believe he's not a risky politician, in the sense that he will push a lefty agenda. But he ran on that in the primaries. The Daily Koolaid, et al, crowd praised him as being far more progressive than "hawkish" Clinton. They skewered her on comments that she would go after Iran if they nuked Israel. They suggested she was trying to get Obama assasinated. But then Obama picks war-voting, Nafta-voting, and Bush-bankruptcy-voting Biden as a running mate. He is quickly losing all of his "change" capital. I'm a lifetime Democrat, and I find him uninspiring. I can totally see how he will lose this thing -- something I predicted the night of Super Tuesday. Why? Bringing in the Kennedy's will excite image-loving Democrats, but the rest of the country could care less.... ____________________ thoughtful: What would be the Iraqi P.M.'s motivation for lying? That's the$200 billion question. They have nearly $100 billion in surplus. Obama says that Iraq should pay, why are US tax payers paying$12 billion a month a month in Iraq

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Tybo:

Thoughtful:

Why introduce a Bill certain to fail?

.

historically, bills have been introduce (knowing they would fail) to force a compromise, as a show of leadership, to stand by one's convictions.

Instead Obama voted for fulling funding for the war, and Against a timeline of withdrawl.. changing his vote only after deciding to run for president.

He's an empty suit on Iraq..indeed his statements that he was always against the war is a "fairy tale"
just as Former Pres. Clinton said. ( and for which the obama campaign labled him "racist")

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kweber7:

Maybe someone already noticed this, but realclearpolitics usually disregards polls that they feel are biased or crappy, like ARG polls. So I also noticed that they do not include the Daily Kos tracker in their national average. Thoughts?

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thoughtful:

clesky

My goodness you think we were greeted upon entering Iraq cities by the population you have been brain washed!

Hans Blix gave a comprehensive report on WMD, couldn't find him ask for a few more months to be certain they weren't there as paperwork wasn't there to show what and how the Iraqis had disposed of their stockpiles. "Didn't mean they were there".

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thoughtful:

Tybo

You ask for compromises the man compromises, there is nothing worse than futile gestures.

Unfortunately Obama was right on Iraq, GWB lied to the American people. John McCain didn't need to be lied to, did he?

We went to wat 6 years later how many people have been killed and maimed? how many years is it to take to recover from the debacle?

And Bin Laden and AlQaeda are just as menacing as they were 7 years ago. That's what yopu called a failed conduct of the war on terror or can you defend the indefensible?

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thoughtful:

The Market lost 5% today. 504 points. Its a collapse.

The height of irresponsibility in De-regulation
by the Bush Government on the Financial sector.

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NW Patrick:

The US gets what it votes for. Look at the financial markets. Congrats!

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faithhopelove:

Tied (again).

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boomshak:

Does this sound like CHANGE to you? (Obama votes 96% of the time with the 9% Approval Rating Democrat Congress, meanwhile, McCain only votes 81% of the time with Republicans)

"Key to the Democrats’ attack against McCain in recent weeks has been the statistic that he “votes with George Bush 90 percent of the time.” The figure comes from the Congressional Quarterly “Vote Studies Workbook” which can be found here. CQ measured all votes where President Bush was known to express a position, so of course, as they acknowledge, most of the votes in question are not all that controversial. Along with the “voted with the president” number, they also measured party loyalty by the percentage of votes in which a member voted with his party when the vote tended to break down by party lines.

The results for the three senators running in this race are not necessarily what the Democrats wish they were. Both Obama and Biden, for instance, turn out to have very high party loyalty, following the extremely unpopular leaders of the Democratic senate on almost every close vote. Obama’s party loyalty score was 96%, making him a more orthodox Democrat than even the Democratic leader in the Senate, Harry Reid, whose score was 93%. Biden was tied with Reid, at 93%. John McCain, meanwhile, had a party loyalty score of 81%, among the lowest in the Republican conference, as many of his fellow Republican senators could no-doubt attest.

On support for the president, it’s true that John McCain voted with Bush's position on 90% of the bills measured, which is also the average figure for Senate Republicans as a whole. Obama, true to his down-the-line partisanship, only supported Bush 40% of the time. But Joe Biden sided with Bush more often than not: 52% of the time."

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

Freddie and Fannie are leading the way of this collapse and those are regulated entities. As is the banking industry in general. It was peole like Charlie Rangall who told the industry to laon money to people who did not deserve it. This isn't a deregulation problem, this is a systemic corruption problem that started in the late 90's under Clinton's watch with comapnies such as Enron, Worldcom, etc...and continues under Bush.
However, if you wish to assign blame on todays market #'s on Bush or the GOP....I assume in 2004 when the market was going up you were out praising Bush? The market is doing what it has done since it became a market, go up and go down, go up and go down. When the market dips, is the best time to buy...there's a lot of money to be made in a down market.....what's going on now is a combination of corruption between private industry and g'ment.....it will correct itself, flaws will be found and corrected....and as we always do with an economic downturn, we will emerge.....and sorry, punititve taxation and more g'ment spending is not the answer.

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boomshak:

You know what I think?

After all the time and money and ads and arguments and billions spent, 2008 will end up looking just like 2004.

Same states, same ev's, same party affiliation.

Whatcha bet?

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thoughtful:

@Stillow

There has never been any thing praise worthy in GW Bush.

THis is not a financial system in need of reform. It needs radical overhaul root and branch.

Every party has rotten old fish. Don't ask me to defend McCain or Rangel.

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boomshak:

Man, that new 527 ad calling McCain a NUT because he was a POW has GOT to be making Obama cringe.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94640700

Obama better get out in front and condemn that or people will assume it came from him. Probably one of the rudest ads I've ever seen.

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boomshak:

ol, just when McCain's ads are lookin bad, one of Obama's "supporters" comes out with THAT whopper!

Thank you crazies on the Left! I love you!

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

I'mjust saying, if you wish to jump on Bush for the market going down 500 in one day, then I assume you were out praising him whe nthe market would go up 400 points in one day during the peak of 2004-2006....Otherwise you just look foolish making that comment.

The system has worked for decades, economic downturns are normal, our market has always worked within up and down cycles. What will emerge is a cleaner more efficient system....I've made a lot of money myself i nthe market goign back to the early 80's. I've seen it swing down and swing up...both directions allow for making money.
G'ment regulation is not the answer, yes there should be some oversight, but not puntiive regulation....It did not help freddie and fannie. If you are not careful you will have the g'ment running private business....and we've all seen how well they have run social security and medicare....the g'ment has no business doing anything but oversight. It messes up everything it touches....the only thing it does well, is run the military.
These current problems are the result of the credit binge that started in hte late 90's and lasted up until the start of 2007....both Clinton and Bush dropped the ball on spotting potential problems.

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thoughtful:

Boom

McCain is a very dangerous person without the temperament to be an executive position let alone President. As I have written many times before he will not release his military mental health records or psychological profiles!

What's he's got to hide?

Stillow

I know what you are saying. Today was sympotomatic of the neglect.We are in the 21st century not the 19th and there are many things that only Government can regulate.

I agree with you we should keep it to a minimum.

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Basil:

Try making an argument against government regulation now.

Too much regulation may be as bad as too little, but what we're seeing is too little too late, and the R's are the party of too little.

Of course, the R's will think up some BS to claim that it's the D's fault, and the GOP has shown that you can fool 40% of the people all the time.

1932 anyone?

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

You're freakin me out, we are agreeing to much. Minimal oversight of private industry is soemthing everyone supports. Auditing large companies' financials for example to ensure they aren't cookin the books like Enron.
The g'ment is full of life long burocrats and congressmen who've been there for 40 years in some cases. I don't want to trust my life with that kind of entrenched corruption. If you wanna pass congressional term limits, maybe I will be open to more g'ment involvement.....since that should help cut down on corruption. But the federal g'ment as a whole is the most corrupt entity on the planet.

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thoughtful:

@Stillow

I am absorbing the latest RAS States polling

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Napoleon Complex:

@Stillow:

Frannie and Freddie used to be Government Sponsored Enterprises and were working pretty well until they were privatized by the Republicans during the Bush Administration.

The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 are also causing many of the problems we're having today. Both were sponsored by Phil Gramm who was or still is advising John McCain. They were signed by Bill Clinton during the time of his so-called impeachment, and both passed each house of Congress by veto-proof majorities. In 2008 Bush vetoed Democratic-sponsored legislation to close the Enron loophole created by the CFMA of 2000.

Fortunately, the Republicans couldn't quite capture the holy grain of their crusade against the New Deal by privatizing Social Security. McCain is still pushing that and it sounds like a really good idea today.

This is not a market cycle. This is a crash that will cost McCain the election because the Republicans are directly responsible for it.

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boomshak:

Rasmussen State Polls out. All BAD news for Obama:

VA: McCain/Obama Tied (told ya SUSA was BS).
OH: McCain by 7
CO: McCain by 2
PA: Obama by 2 (wow!)
FL: McCain by 5

Brutal results for Obama. NY down to 5 and PA down to 2? Deeeeeyam!

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boomshak:

Napoleon Complex:

The economy was in great shape 2 years ago when Democrats took over Congress.

I say it's THEIR fault. Why shouldn't America agree? I mean for 6 years under Bush the economy is awesome. Dems take over and it goes to sh*t.

Cause and effect.

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change:

scott rasmussen is a dumb mutt. how the hell is he assuming there is only 6 percent more dems then republicans.. dumbass thats why his survey's are all so close now!

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boomshak:

lol, change, Gallup says the difference is even less. wake up.

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Napoleon Complex:

@boomshak:

You really live in an alternate universe. Speculation was building up under the piggies-feeding-at-the-trough mentality created by Republican deregulation and now the bubble has burst. This is same thing that happened during the Great Depression and the S&L meltdown caused by Ronald Reagan. No offense, but I don't think the majority of Americans are as dumb as you think they are.

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boomshak:

Napolean:

So nothing is the fault of your 9% approval Congress? They promised they would change the world (kind of like Obama), but everything went to sh*t instead.

They promised a "common sense approach to kepping down gas prices". Gas prices doubled. The promised fiscal conservatism. the deficit doubled.

But they are not at fault?

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JFactor:

Boomshak, it's +3 in Ohio for McCain and even in Pennsylvania.

Very even in all states. Pennsylvania bad news for Obama, Colorado is a statistical tie, Ohio leans slightly to McCain, Florida is quite a long shot for Obama to win and Virginia's dead even.

Better results for McCain than for Obama for sure. Then again it's not a suprise given the methodology of Rasmussen. They may be right, they may be wrong, who knows? Very, very even race coming up.

And please, no "OMG Obama's support is cracking he's toast LOL!!" messages or "these polls are outliers McSame is down down because dems have impressive ground game DON'T YOU GET IT??". Those comments are not useful...

(one last plug: http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com )

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Napoleon Complex:

@Boomshak:

Didn't I just mention that Bush vetoed Democratic-sponsored legislation to close the Enron loophole? The Dems have majorities in both houses, but they don't enough votes to override vetoes or invoke cloture in the Senate. Didn't you take Civics in high school?

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Whitetower:

Is anyone paying attention to the DailyKos nonsense tracking poll? They've oversampled women (=53%, actually about 50%) and under 30s (18%, actually about 11%), while they've undersampled Republicans (=26%, actually about 36%).

(Go figure DailyKos to oversample the youth vote by over 50%.)

____________________

metsmets:

From Wikipedia:
Sampling theory provides methods for calculating the probability that the poll results differ from reality by more than a certain amount, simply due to chance; for instance, that the poll reports 47% for Kerry but his support is actually as high as 50%, or is really as low as 44%. This theory and some Bayesian assumptions suggest that the "true" percentage will probably be fairly close to 47%. The more people that are sampled, the more confident pollsters can be that the "true" percentage is close to the observed percentage. The margin of error is a measure of how close the results are likely to be.

However, the margin of error only accounts for random sampling error, so it is blind to systematic errors that may be introduced by non-response or by interactions between the survey and subjects' memory, motivation, communication and knowledge.

So the debate here is between those who believe that the polls are subject to non-random or systematic errors created in the way the party affiliations are weighted or in how the question is asked. For example, I assume that polls flip the choice between interviews - McCain or Obama? Then Obama or McCain. How many polls mention Barr and Nader? (I see that Rasmussen doesn't.) How many polls mention the full ticket? McCain/Pallin and Obama/Biden? Do the polls mention the party first? Will you vote for the Democrat Obama or the Republican McCain?
As to political bias of pollsters - do you think they don't crave the publicity that comes from giving a different answer from the other polls? Which poll would the WSJ or FOX News feature - one showing McCain ahead by three points or one showing a tie?
Frankly all the polls are suspect because they take the raw numbers and then distort them with party weightings and age of voter etc. based on a PRECONCEIVED notion of who will actually on November 4th. Any guess as to whether the African American turnout will be larger this time around?

____________________

metsmets:

Whitetower,
So you and Almighty God KNOW that Daily Kos is "over-sampling" women and youth based on what "actually"? Your concept of who is going to vote on November 4th? How do you know that women won't vote in larger numbers - there's a woman on the ballot. How do you know that the large increase in Democratic registration nationwide isn't mainly young voters?

____________________

Americans are racists and McCain has breathed new life into Palin as Pig by denying that Obama said such.

This is the vilest, ugliest, slimyest, most racist campaign ever conducted.

____________________

JFactor:

People, seriously, it's not DailyKos that is doing the researching for the poll. They are simply funding it. It's Research2000 that has come up with the numbers that they think are valid.

You can argue with the numbers all you want but I for one am happy that they are releasing all the internals etc. They are doing transparent polling and that's good. If that poll was some shady liberal conspiracy I'm sure they would NOT be releasing all the data they are releasing now.

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Ulysses:

Let's be honest, folks. DailyKos -- whether you like it or not -- is a tiny poll. So try not to focus on it.

For Democrats, the most worrisome recent polls should be the FoxNews poll out today that -- as biased as that network obviously is -- provides large samples in the states they surveyed... all battleground states in the supposed "Toss Up" column.

For Republicans, the most worrisome data should be the descent of McCain's somewhat marginal lead since the bounce after the convention. Polling data for the last twenty years or so shows that how the polls stand 15 to 20 days after the end of the last convention, are a good indicator of where the election is going. If the trend continues, at 15 days the race will either be dead even, or Obama will have a slight lead.

But please, don't base any major assumptions on the DailyKos poll.

____________________

Bigmike:

metsmets

Sure AA turnout will be larger. The question is will it matter. If most of the increase is in solid red or blue states, it won't really make a difference. But there is potential for the AA turnout to make a difference in a state or two where it is a really close race.

____________________

as other people gave noted dkos is not conducting the poll r2000 is. kos ask r2k about the their #s : http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/15/12458/3796/573/599475

where are the people talking about hotline's small poll size by the way?

they haven't oversampled women either women consistently vote in larger margins than men.

____________________

Whitetower:

@JFactor

The internals of the poll are what I was commenting on -- how can, for example, DailyKos justify publishing a poll that oversamples the under 30 vote by over 50%?

____________________

Napoleon Complex wrote to Boomshak:

"No offense, but I don't think the majority of Americans are as dumb as you think they are."

Frankly I see no evidence that American aren't that dumb.

____________________

metsmets:

Whitetower

Again, what INSIDE knowledge do you have to suggest that the under 30s sample is 50% too high? Compared to what? Your own notion of what is expected.

____________________

Palin is under investigation and refuses to meet with investigators.

Americans are dopes.

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damitajo1:

The financial market woes are not Bush's fault. Clearly the feds have some regulatory authority, but Senator Biden himself has resisted going after banks - because he is from the "banking" state. Also, corporate irresponsibility caused these problems. Greed. Greed. And more greed.

____________________

____________________

Yeah, right, Repugnican avoidance of regulation had nothing to do with it.

Hah.hah.hah.hah.hah.

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ritwingr:

If you believe in Marxism and misery spread equally, vote Obama.

If you believe in an eviscerated military, vote Obama.

If you believe in the Owellianly entitled "Fairness Doctrine, designed to silence the last voice of opposition to socialism in our country - talk radio - vote for Obama.

If you truly believe we can power our economy on windmills and solar panels, and that coal, oil and nuclear power are just palin icky, vote Obama.

If you are an adherent of the fanatical religion known as Globalwarmingism and immune to facts that disprove your faith, vote Obama.

If you drool and foam at the mouth with hatred for those who've made something of themseves because you haven't, and it makes you feel good to bring them down, vote Obama.

If you want to get rid of secret ballots for union certification and give union boss goons control over our economy, driving what's left of our industrial base overseas, vote Obama.

If you think the 2nd Amendment is a nuisance but see "pnumbras" and "emanations" in the Constitution that give a woman the right to kill her baby, vote Obama.

If you think the Weather Underground was just plain peachy, vote Obama.

If you DON'T think these things, but don't much care for liberty, either, vote McStain.

If, however, you believe in capitalism, liberty, the 2nd Amendment, and a limited, Constitutional government that does just a few things, none of which involve stealing from Peter to pay Paul...

VOTE LIBERTARIAN

____________________

ritwingr:

OBAMA: Chump Change We Can Believe In!

____________________

Ulysses:

And if you believe in paranoid sociopathic nut jobs, vote Ritwingr.

____________________

Slimyest campaign ever waged in a "Democracy":

eptember 15, 2008
Jewish voters report calls disparaging Obama
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 9:14 p.m. ET

MIAMI (AP) -- Jewish voters in Florida and at least one other state are being targeted by a telephone survey tying Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama to Palestinian causes, an advocacy group alleged Monday.

The Jewish Council for Education in Research says at least two women in separate states were push polled, or asked questions intended to influence voters while pretending to take a poll, on Sunday afternoon from a caller who said he was from Research Strategies.

Joelna Marcus says she became uncomfortable when the caller asked if she was Jewish, whether she was Orthodox and how often she attends synagogue.

The caller then asked if Marcus would be influenced if she learned that Obama had donated money to the Palestine Liberation Organization. The caller also asked how she would vote if she learned that someone on the Illinois senator's staff had close ties to Palestine.

Marcus, a 71-year-old former college professor, said she was furious.

____________________

I now expect that the Repugnicans will win a pyrrhic victory in November; one that they will never recover from.

The US is headed for a trash pile the likes of which we have never seen.

God help us.

____________________

Whitetower:

@metsmet

The "youth vote" normally does not get above 10-12% of the total turn-out -- despite every year since 1972 the Left has dreamed of youth activists flooding to the election polls. It didn't happen during the Vietnam War and it isn't going to happen now.

For example:

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS07_2006MidtermCPS.pdf

____________________

HP just announced that it is laying off 24,600 worldwide.

More bad news, but also an opportunity.

If Obama can't inspire confidence, he deserves to lose.

But, frankly, McCain will be a repeat of Hoover.

And, the US will be a shambles in 4 years.

____________________

Whitetower:

Further: there are simple demographics at work.

Since the US population is aging, increasingly larger percentages of the youth are required to turn-out in order just to maintain their proportion of the total turn-out, i.e. eventually (more sooner than later) 70% of the youth will have to vote in order to constitute 10% of the total turn-out.

Already, roughly 50% of registered youth turn-out to vote in presidential election -- about the same as in 1972 -- but at the same time the youth proportion of the total turn-out has declined since 1972.

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf

(see especially table 3)

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Mike In Maryland:

Sarah Palin's daily approval numbers:

Approve Disapprove No Opinion Difference
9/11: 52 35 13 +17
9/12: 51 37 12 +14
9/13: 49 40 11 +9
9/14: 47 42 11 +5
9/15: 47 43 10 +4

Approvals declining, Diaapprovals rising, No opinions falling, and the difference is closing. Doesn't seem to be anything that could be called 'statistical anomaly' about the trendline in any category.

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Florida Voter:

Playing with the Electoral map is fun. All's Obama needs to do is keep Kerry's map and pick up Iowa (Leading by double digits there), Colorado, (flip/flopping almost daily), and New Mexico, (Obama hanging on to a slim margin). I think McCain has a much harder time in picking off Michigan and Pennsylvania. I really don't see these 2 states going for McCain. I think Romney on the ticket would definitely be a plus for the economy issues and mainstream concerns which would have played well in PA and MI. Plus Romney's ties in Michigan would have helped immensely.

The election will all be about turnout, new voters and who has the best ideas. Whoever wins though, will be about a million times better then what's in the WH now. Although Obama would be 2million times better! :)

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