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US: Daily Tracking (9/13-15)

Topics: PHome

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
1,100 LV, 3%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 48, McCain 44

Diageo / Hotline
909 RV, 3.3%; Live Telephone Interviews
(story, results)
Obama 46, McCain 42

Gallup
2,800 RV, 2%; Live Telephone Interviews
McCain 47, Obama 46

Rasmussen
3,000 LV, 2%; IVR
McCain 48, Obama 47

 

Comments
NW Patrick:

Uh oh! McCain's sliding. State polls will catch up soon.

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slinky:

It's a dead heat on the national level; what we are seeing is noise. Here's Gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup-Daily-Election-2008.aspx

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thoughtful:

Well the only reason that McCain leads in Rasmussen is because of the 2 changes up in ID Weighting. On the weighting previous to September 1 Obama would be leading 49-45!

More later

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Justin:

Change from yesterday:

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
McCain -1, Obama 0

Diageo / Hotline
McCain -1, Obama +2

Gallup
McCain 0, Obama +1

Rasmussen
McCain -1, Obama 0


Average Change:
McCain -0.75, Obama +0.75

Average Swing:
Obama +1.5

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greg in charlotte:

President John McCain......it's coming fast and hard

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slinky:

And, what was the basis of those changes, again?

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NW Patrick:

The internals show favorable ratings for Palin suffering. This will now be tied to JUDGEMENT for McCain. The economic news can't be good with an election with the wind at the Dem's back. It's going to get interesting!

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mirrorball:

Should be interesting to see how it plays out over the next few days. Gallup says Obama did better in Monday night's interviews than he has recently. But I suspect this will remain basically a tie going into next week's debate.

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Tyler:

McCain has been losing points in Rasmussen, and Obama has been gaining in Gallup. This means that in both trackers, the more recent results are even more favorable to Obama than the aggregate, and the McCain-favorable numbers are set to roll off. By the end of the week, Obama will be nominally ahead in all four trackers (even if it isn't a statistically significant lead in some of them).

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player:

I think that McCain will drop one more point in the national polls before the debates. The liberal trash talk noise machine has been at it for 24/7 over the past two days. It seems a little quiet today. However, McCain should rebound smartly. Sean Hannity has an interview with Sarah Palin in a couple of days and the interview with Todd Palin with Greta yesterday and today is a good one. He is a very likable person who clearly enjoys outdoor life. Anyone that can race a snow machine at 100mph for 2000 miles in daylight and dark and win can capture any sports minded individual's attention.

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greg in charlotte:

McCain is getting ready to take Penn., Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and maybe Mich, and Wisc...........do the math

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player:

@NW Patrick:
That is just the liberal media's trash talk machine in a full court press for the past few days against her. She will rebound.

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greg in charlotte:

Good Bye to Obama and the drive by media's reputaion

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Tyler:

McCain is not "getting ready to take" anything he doesn't already have. The numbers appear to be "getting tighter" because there wasn't really any state-level polling from before the Dem convention to after the GOP convention. The tightening is an effect of the GOP convention and that effect has already peaked as is evidenced by the national trackers.

The races _are_ tighter than pre-conventions in several states, but I would bet that further polling will show that the races are not _continuing_ to get tighter. The best McCain can do is hold what he currently has, which means he can certainly win the election, but shouldn't hold out hope of flipping PA, WI, MI, etc. (Although it would be nice if he wasted money in such an attempt)

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Justin:

@greg in charlotte

Do the math? Have you done the math? Can you share the math with the rest of us?

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Snowspinner:

Can we say the bounce is gone yet, or do we have to wait for the long, slow deflation of Gallup and Rasmussen to finish?

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greg in charlotte:

Obama needs to be alot higher in the polls to even come close to winning. He needs to be up by 15% and another 2% because he is black

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player:

@thoughtful:
Don't forget about the unknown Bradley effect.

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H2OPlus:

Also, new figures on Palin's favorable/unfavorable ratio are coming out too. They're showing anywhere from a 25-50% decline. Some decline is expected, but these are rather large ones so soon. Looks like Palin may be Failin'.

As I said before, we'll come to know these last two weeks as McCain's High Tide.

Yes, I know the Rad Right will claim a MSM bias, but they fail to realize it's not about left or right - it's about selling advertising! These talking heads will talk about anything that will get idiots to watch.

So, when politicians persist in saying they didn't want the Bridge to Nowhere or never embraced earmarks even though the record clearly says something else, you are playing directly into the MSM mindset. They LOVE to catch politicians saying one thing while doing another because it sells advertising and increases viewership!!

No doubt, McCain and Palin have suffered from bad media coverage, but come on gang . . . a lot of this is from their own stupidity.

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Tyler:

Why would the "Bradley Effect" influence IVR polls like Rasmussen?

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Reality Check:

The economic news will wipe out all of Mccain's artificial gains very quickly--he has no chance of winning this thing if it is an economy election.

The debates will put the final nails in his coffin.

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greg in charlotte:

justin....its real simple, just go to realclearpolics.com, they have an interactive electoral map. Just click on each state and you can change it from blue to red and it does the math automaticly

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Justin:

Greg, do you mind me asking how old you are?

Obama needs 270 electoral votes, as does McCain. No one needs to be up 17% at any time to win an election. I hope you know this and just posting for the hell of it, but it's hard to be sure.

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slinky:

I agree with this. I believe the vote machines will be Jimmied against Obama so that he must be up by a significant (I would say greater than 3% at least) margin nationally, to win.

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greg in charlotte:

reality check heres your reality check .The dems programs that forced these lenders to loan money to losers with bad credit. Blame Bill Clinton

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change:

Well one week from today obama will be leading by 2-3 points in gallup and rasmussen, the economy is becoming a bigger issue, and americans don't want the gizer and the beauty pagent queen from alaska running our economy! Gallup is indicating that monday nights interviews are showing a shift towards obama.. this is the best mcsame could do with his wild gamble on a ditz!

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Stuart:

We will continue to see a roll off in McCains numbers as Palin moves to net negative. Thinking conservatives are starting to draw the line. See http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/16/conservatives-turn-on-mcc_n_126749.html

Palin's town charging for rape kits is starting to get out in "Big" media, see:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqMxxruirrE

Obama is in a better position to exploit Wall Street meltdown, given John's unfortuante "economy is strong" remark on Monday.

Also, along those lines, more than 40% of American's believes McCains false charge that Obama will raise taxes on everyone - campaign and even press are now pushing back on that heavily.

Very hard to see any upside for McCain at this point - very easy to see huge downside though.

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hyh:

All this is consistent with what many experts have been saying about convention bounces. Over next several days, McCain likely will lose some support while Obama gains a little.

Taking the second graph from the link below (published well before the start of conventions)...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html

... the height of McCain lead due to convention bounce was expected to happen around 9/8. For 9/16 today, he was predicted to lose ~2% of the lead. Gallup daily actually follows the predicted graph very well. Further erosion of his lead is predicted over next 10 days.

McCain may had a bigger bounce than Obama, so a week from now we may be seeing a dead heat or possibly a very slight Obama lead - smaller lead compared to before the conventions.

Barring a major surprise, the first debate most likely will decide the election.

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kerrchdavis:

@ greg

lol! i love how sarcastic you are! Can I play to?

i think Obama needs to be leading by at least 20 in every state to have even the slightest chance. This is especially true in states like California, which have a long history of racism.

Plus, it's going to be really hard to overcome the control McCain has over hard-working, blue collar voters who are in a "mental recession" and who look to a candidate who believes in the strong fundamentals of the economy for inspiration.

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slinky:

OK, I will repeat my 10 reasons REPUBS are responsible for the economy if you don't be quiet.

Talk about the polls.

Else we end up arguing about whether or not Reagan was pre-senile.

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Justin:

Greg, you do realize that when you click on a state to change it from blue to red it doesn't actually change what the results of the election will be, right? That's not doing the math, that's some kid in Charlotte playing with a map.

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faithhopelove:

Tied (again). There does seem to be very slight movement toward Obama. When the 4 trackers are averaged together, Obama has a slight lead (though well within the margin of error).

As Charles Franklin has shown earlier here (see archives), the "house effects" of right-leaning Rasmussen and Gallup are more favorable toward McCain than those of any other pollsters. Clearly, Research 2000 and Diageo are more favorable toward Obama. Research 2000 and Diageo are probably over-sampling Democrats; Rasmussen is probably under-sampling Democrats. Gallup seems to see party ID as quite fluid, which may under-estimate the power of party loyalty.

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NW Patrick:

Greg in Charlotte. Educate yourself.

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kerrchdavis:

@ Justin

lol! not that we want to insult kids or anything

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KipTin:

Please...thoughtful... give it up on Rasmussen political ID weighting. Do you want them to IGNORE their polling data on such?

I am making no predictions, because Gore and Kerry were supposed to beat Bush. The polls said so. Gore because of the success of the Clinton/Gore years. Kerry because of the Iraq War. Go figure.

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Justin:

You know, KipTin, there's an old saying in Tennessee...

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NW Patrick:

I think the thugs are starting to sweat it. Palin's honeymoon is over. Americans are starting to see the empty shell she is. I was embarassed by her ABC interview. It was like the chearleder with good grades, trying to sound articulate and skilled on foreign policy.

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greg in charlotte:

polls are aready indicating a landside victory for Palin 2012....there is a god

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kerrchdavis:

@greg

there is no doubt Palin will win the Wasilla Moosehunter's Club Presidency by a landslide margin in 2012...and I will thank god that she'll be a million miles away from politics.

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JoelR:

KipTin:

Gore actually did beat Bush.

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kerrchdavis:

@ NW Patrick

Not that we want to insult cheerleaders or students with good grades :)

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IndependentThinker:

@greg

Do you know how many voters who are not comfortable with voting for a 72-year-old guy ?
According to polls it's much higher than people who are not comfortable with voting for a black guy
One more thing :
Have you ever been wondering whether people will be voting for a chick even as number 2 on a ticket ?
FYI : There were a bunch of people who said they didn't vote for Hillary because of her gender
Now do the math ...

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harschwarz:

Ah Yes. The citizen politicians with that common sense attitude that just love to hunt and fish, and watch their kids play hockey. That will help us with the economy, healthcare and foreign policy. Just ask George Bush. he'll tell you how successful he was as our last guy who we would love to have a beer with.

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greg in charlotte:

Good Bye ladies ..see at the McCain victory party.

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kerrchdavis:

@Inde

He can't do math. Somebody is letting their 6 year old play with their Blackberry

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1magine:

Wow - Greg - I turned them all blue - now what?

Please send me your address so I can mail you a $1.00 to buy a clue.

What uneducated derelict is still talking about the Bradley effect? Any measure of poll under-representing BO - only occurred in Appalachian regions, every where else polls were correct, except heavy black populations in the south where pollsters regularly said blacks would never come out to vote in high numbers- and whites wouldn't vote for a black man. Whoooops. If the same reverse "Bradley effect" takes place in VA on Nov 4, this will all be over by 8PM eastern time.

This election has been and is the same as it was a year ago - 6 months ago - 3 weeks ago and tomorrow. Despite the numbers RAS or Gallup report people saying - this country is 45% Blue, 45% Red - Both dark - neither changing - end of story. in the middle 4% of the remaining almost always go left and 4% almost always go right - because we beat each other up continually until neither side can stand the sight, words or ideas of the other. In the middle the non-partisan brilliant - looking to hear that right idea, and the unknowing. The unknowing will tune in to the first 10 minutes of the first debate and make up their mind. 1 week out from the first debate - baring a monstrous blunder, or a terrorist attack, they will decide the race in CO, VA and OH. That is where the race is - It is not in NJ, or NC or FL, or even NH, PA and MI.

I said this last year, I said this 6 months ago, I'm telling you today, and I will tell you a week after the first debate. Then, on Nov. 5th - you can tell me your address.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

It's always good to see the libs get excited again. It's over Obama wins! Congratulatons libs--you knew it would happen and we conservatives doubted you. Let's all go home now and quietly emote.

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kerrchdavis:

@ greg

bye Greg! don't fall out of your crib

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atreides:

Here's the thing. Rasmussen is eliminating more Obama voters than McCain voters in is LV model. Supposedly the party id spread is now neutral. Yet Gallup is showing the same -1 Obama as Rasmussen. At the gym today, I was talking about "Black Monday" and mcCains "fundamentally sound" comments. A retiree took great pains to explain to me what McCain "really" meant. What was interesting, wasn't the explanation. I'm a finance guy. It was the worried look that he had on his face as he gave the explanation.

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slinky:

I think it is very important for polling people to remember that Gore did win the popular vote in 2000. That fact is not contested.

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carl29:

@"Gore and Kerry were supposed to beat Bush. The polls said so."

Facts or Opinion? Let see the facts:

Rasmussen 9/15 - 9/17 Bush 49% Kerry 45%
Bush +4

CBS News 9/12 - 9/16 Bush 50% Kerry 42%
Bush +8

CNN/USAT/Gallup 9/13 - 9/15 Bush 55% Kerry 42% Bush +13

Everyone is entitled to his or her own opinions, however, his or her own facts?

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NW Patrick:

I agree polls, reputable pollsters are pretty darn acurate. But I will see I think this election is different. All the talk of the "Bradley" effect is mute to me. Remember, 50% of this country is NOT white. Kerry had record youth #'s in 2004, a huge increase from 2000, 2008 will continue this trend with larger than average hispanic and black turn out. Throw in educated white folk and it's an Obama win.

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kerrchdavis:

Obama destroys McCain in Golden, CO this morning guys.

Here is the link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGxx0VGLg90

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

It must be the Dr. Phil (Philip Butler) effect. Or could it be troopergate? The world has awakened and seen the truth! McCain is, always has been, and always will be the cause of everything wrong with America. Conservatism is dead.

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sherman:

Ohh! The bad MSM media is hurting my candidate! It's not fair! Whaaaaaaa!

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NW Patrick:

How many more Republican administrations destroying our economy will it take to understand that TRICKL DOWN doesn't work?

Wrap your minds around these F A C T S. Per Forbes magazine, the top 3 presidents in US, Post World War history, are all DEMS. Republicans FAIL. SIMPLE as that. Look at all the numbers. It’s astonishing.

Postwar Presidencies Ranked By Six Measures Of Economic Performance:

#1 Clinton #2 Johnson #3 Kennedy

Why on God's GREEN EARTH would you even consider electing A Republican considering the state our country is in? How many failed Republican administrations will it take before you realize you are consistently voting against your best interests.

John McCain, I AM NOT a Georgian, I AM AN AMERICAN. Start putting the interests of MY COUNTRY 1st!!!!

http://www.forbes.com/2004/07/20/cx_da_0720presidents.html


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slinky:

Note that the national election between Kerry and Bush was contested and close. It is believed that Bush won the popular vote, but these numbers remain contested:

Bush: 62,040,610
Kerry: 59,028,444


In 2000, it was different, but also contested. The national numbers were:

Bush: 50,456,002
Gore: 50,999,897

Given the latter numbers, Bush felt he had a 'mandate' to do, essentially, whatever he wanted. And, even though he campaigned as a bipartisan, who would even appoint Democrats to his admin, as he had done as Texas Governor, he did not do so.

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faithhopelove:

Greg:

You wrote: "McCain is getting ready to take Penn., Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and maybe Mich, and Wisc...........do the math"

PA: No poll of this state has shown McCain ahead since April (with the exception of one questionable Zogby internet poll). Biden (who was born in PA and has been called the state's "third senator") visits PA today.

OH: McCain has a slight lead in this Bush state, but Obama remains within striking distance. 4 OH polls in a row have shown McCain's lead to be 3-4 points there--within the margin of error.

NV: With the exception of one of those Zogby internet polls, this state is polling even closer than OH. Obama has two stops there tomorrow.

VA: Yesterday's VA polls showed this state leaning toward Obama. PPP releases another VA poll tomorrow. ARG is about to release a poll of WV that shows McCain ahead in VA's next-door neighbor by just 4 points, and a WV poll from last week found McCain ahead there by just 5 points. These polls indicate that Obama is doing relatively well along the VA/WV border.

FL: This state has never been a top-tier pick-up opportunity for Obama. He visits the state Friday and Saturday; Bill Clinton visits the state in late September. FL polls in early October may be more telling.

CO: 3 of the past 4 polls of this state (not including the Zogby internet poll) have Obama ahead. He is making his third stop in 2 days there right now.

MI: Only 1 poll has shown McCain with a lead in MI--and that a 1-point lead.

WI: No poll since May has shown McCain ahead in this state.

Saying something does not make it so.

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Mike_in_CA:

KipTin,

Gore actually did beat Bush. And actually, the polls the week before did NOT say so. In fact, Rasmussen's last poll was Bush +9. Gore won the popular vote, btw.

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slinky:

More slime from the McCain camp: Efforts to expunge voters from Michigan registration on the basis that their houses are foreclosed. Obama camp files suit to prevent.

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carl29:

Guys, I am here just enjoying my role as a fact-finder. Nothing else. Everytime some sort of "new fact" comes up without any base, I will try to bring the real facts to the table, take it or leave it, but they will be there.

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boomshak:

Well, looks like statistical noise on Rasmussen/Gallup to em with Mccain slightly ahead but basically tied.

DailyKos/Hotline can both be written off to pathetically overweighted samples favoring Democrats. I mean, btoh of these contradict Ras/Gallup by 5 points which is the same amount they are overweighting Dems by, so there you have it.

Looks like about a tie nationally going into the first debates.

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kerrchdavis:

@carl

Good to know, thanks buddy!

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change:

@ kerrchdavis

Bradely effect? so your telling me that these polls that have been showing a tight race consistently all summer, have a virtually even amount of people lying? - just think about it. how many polls showing 1- 2 point leads, probably hundreds, and in all of these an equal amount of people are lying? - that sounds very far stretched to me!

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sherman:

This attempt to block voters by going after foreclosure lists may very well become national news and will knock a good 5 points from McCain's numbers if it does. How McSleazy can you get?

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Snowspinner:

OK. Guys. We need to stop using the "in the margin of error" excuse on both sides.

1) The margin of error is not a random "it could be anywhere in this range" number. It means, generally, we're 95% certain the number will be in this range. Odds are still very, very good on a well-run poll that the results will be accurate far closer than MoE.

2) Repeated polls showing a result within the margin of error do not mean nothing. If twenty polls show candidate A with a 1-2 point lead on candidate B, that does not mean "it's within the margin of error and thus too close to call," it means candidate A is very, very likely to win.

"Not statistically significant" does not mean "not significant," and people interpreting it to mean that don't understand how polls work.

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kerrchdavis:

@change

um...the Bradley effect is a joke. You won't find me saying otherwise.

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carl29:

@ You are very welcomed, dear Kerrchdavis!

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Xenobion:

McCain on the economy = fail. End of Palin bubble. It burst with McCain's fundamentals speech.

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kerrchdavis:

@Xeno

Palin who?

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change:

@snowspinner,

relax, the obama people are all over it, they are taking it to court. and also michigan wont be decided by 11 000 votes, that i can garauntee you!

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

No debates needed now. Even the most astute poll followers can see it's an Obama win.

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kerrchdavis:

the link to the second part of the speech.

All I can say is Obama is RAPING McCain on the economy. Ouch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdKmpQJ3CBE

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IndependentThinker:

watching this video is definitely worthwhile regardless your party identification
The truth will set you free
Actually even Fox News agrees that McCain is running a sleazy/dishonest campaign
Straight Talk Express or Dishonest Talk Express ?
Proof :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/15/foxs-megyn-kelly-works-ov_n_126473.html

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

kerrchdavis:
Only a lib could see "rape" as a positive thing, but you're right McCain is a failure on economics. Obama has the keen insights and innate economic aptitude to save America from collapse. All his years of organizing a community have made him into the one wall street genius. All hail king of finance. All hail King Obama. Let angels prostrate fall.

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Tybo:

I wonder how american voter will feel knowing that obama got 30% more money than McCain ($ 10 million vs 7 million) from the failed
Lehman and and merrill lynch?
a few less lobbyists because Obama takes it straight from the sours

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sherman:

Looks like the Repubs are getting mighty agitated. What's up, guys? :)

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Stillow:

Obama also has two former Fannie CEO's working in his campaign. The left is very good at spin and there machine is out in full force.

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Tybo:

kerrch is the reason so many have left the obama party.
Rape as "humor"/

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KipTin:

Get your FACTS right. The McCain campaign is not involved.

The Obama campaign and Democratic National Committee filed a lawsuit in federal court alleging that the Michigan Republican Party is engaging an illegal effort to disenfranchise voters.

This all began with a statement from Macomb County GOP chairman James Carabelli who was quoted by the Michigan Messenger saying: "We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren't voting from those addresses."

In an interview with the Detroit News the day after that quote was published, Carabelli denied the accuracy of the quote. "I never said anything even close to that," he told the newspaper. "We won't be doing voter challenges on foreclosures, and we've never had a plan to do it."

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/09/obama_dnc_file_lawsuit.html

FACT: Voters are supposed to change their addresses when they move. Okay to "challenge" their place of residence if in fact they are voting in the wrong precinct (local elections at stake here.) They can still VOTE!!! Worse case scenario is having to utilize a "provisional" ballot.

Obama campaign just using this to slime McCain.. as already demonstrated above.

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sherman:

I see the clamor for offshore drilling is dying a slow death what with oil dropping below $92 a barrel. Looks like Barack made the right call, eh? Or maybe we should go with Sarah Palin's bold plan of taxing the hell out of the oil company profits and giving that money to American taxpayers. Works for me!

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Varon:

I know everyone is having fun worrying about why Greg isn’t in school, but I was interested in people’s take on Gallups break down by demographic subgroup.

I am especially intrigued by the regional numbers. If I were a McCain advisor I would be concerned that the only region I’m leading in is the south. Increased support there seems to be coming at the expense of support in the rest of the country.

Is Palin a double edged sword, that helps in one region but hurts you everywhere else?


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Whitetower:

Unfortunately none of these polls show internals -- I'd be curious to see if the youth vote (i.e.

I saw two polls yesterday -- Kos was one of them -- that showed 25% of the total turnout would be under 30. Ridiculous and unfounded. The under 30 vote will comprise 12-13% of the total turnout and that's assuming there is no increase in the over 30 vote.

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sherman:

"Bauer noted that using foreclosure lists to challenge a voter’s address is “false and illegal” for several reasons. First, because getting a foreclosure notice is not evidence that the person’s address has changed. In Michigan, homeowners have the opportunity to redeem the foreclosure even after a sheriff’s sale has occurred, which means they can stay in the home for many months after a foreclosure notice has been sent. Second, because under Michigan law a person can vote at their old precinct if they lost their home within 60 days of the election.
"

http://www.michiganmessenger.com/4463/obama-campaign-files-suit-over-foreclosure-lists

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Whitetower:

I should have said: Unfortunately none of these polls show internals -- I'd be curious to see if the youth vote is oversampled (i.e. showing anything above 15% of total turnout).

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NW Patrick:

Wow did anyone watch Obama's press conference on the economy? Can you IMAGINE McCain trying to talk articulately on the same subject? My God America it's so clear this year. We have the opportunity to change course, electing a brilliant man, who will gain respect around the World for the US once again. And besides, markets love DEMS, history shows.

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sherman:
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KipTin:

For this campaign cycle (since end of July)--
Lehman employees donated $361,000 to Obama compared to $117,500 McCain.

Merrill Lynch employees donated $191,000 to Obama compared to $297,000 McCain.

Summary: Obama's campaign topped McCain. Total $552,000 to Obama and $414,500 to McCain.

And then there is Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and UBS... who all contributed more to Obaman than McCain. "Through June 30, Democrats had received 56% of the $101.4 million in donations from industry employees."

"Democrats, in particular, have become more reliant in recent years on Wall Street money. The second-largest source of donations to all Democratic candidates in the 2008 campaign has been the securities and investment industry. The industry ranks as the third-biggest giver to Sen. Obama's presidential campaign."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122152311313139643.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

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HaloFan:

Someone please answer me this question

AOL (which is a left leaning internet site) has many polling questions. McCain usually wins sometimes by 20%.
Also check out there poll on the general election, McCain wins in every state.

I know its an internet vote. However, You cant vote twice (using the same computer) and don’t the young folks use the internet more and they are supposed to be obama fans?
What gives? Please answer

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NW Patrick:

Wall ST is giving to Obama's campaign because DEMS always make for better markets. Maybe their tired of MCSAME? HAHAHAHAHAHA

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Whitetower:

@NW Patrick
The fact that the the "world" respects Obama is an extremely good reason to vote against him.

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KipTin:

Yes, I watched Obama's speech. It was full of misrepresentations of McCain's words and stretching of the truth. And he kept talking about watching out for "the people" and not corporations, completely ignoring how many retirements are funded by stocks and investments. It is like the success of business is completely separate from the success of working America.

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NW Patrick:

OH MY GOD. Low info. person! AOL (which is a left leaning internet site)? WHO THE HELL HAS AOL ANYMORE BESIDES OLD FOLKS? LOL

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slinky:

From Michael Cohen's opinion piece in today's NYTimes:

"During the last week, the McCain campaign has unabashedly engaged in the active spreading of mistruths and falsehoods. It said that Barack Obama supported “comprehensive sex education” for children in kindergarten (“dishonest” and “deceptive” said The Washington Post); that Mr. Obama used the colloquial expression “lipstick on a pig” to describe Sarah Palin (G.O.P. Senator Orrin Hatch labeled the charge “ridiculous”); that Ms. Palin never accepted earmarks as governor of Alaska; (this is patently false, she actually requested $450 million in earmarks as governor); that Mr. Obama will raise taxes on middle-class families (his plan would actually give a tax cut to 80 percent of Americans); that his health care plan will force families into a government-run health care plan; (a public health expert quoted in this paper called that “inaccurate and false”); that Ms. Palin told Congress “thanks, but no thanks” on the Bridge to Nowhere (she initially supported the bridge and kept the Congressional funds earmarked for the project); that Ms. Palin visited Ireland and Iraq (her airplane refueled in the former and never crossed the border into the latter). Now there are even reports that the McCain campaign fabricated crowd estimates for a recent rally in Virginia.

Even after the press debunked each of these lies, the McCain campaign has refused to concede the truth. Though news outlets have consistently shown that Ms. Palin’s claim about the Bridge to Nowhere is not true, she continues to repeat it to the point where MSNBC’s Hardball began to keep a running tally of how often Ms. Palin made the same false assertion on the campaign trail.

According to Brian Rogers, a McCain spokesman, “we’re running a campaign to win. And we’re not too concerned about what the media filter tries to say about it.” Indeed, Mr. Rogers claimed the campaign had “detailed backup” for “everything” it has said. “If you and the Obama campaign want to disagree,” he told reporters, “that’s your call.” Of course, detailed backup is not necessarily truth. The McCain campaign seems to be operating under the notion that if their distortions about Barack Obama become part of the campaign discourse, voters will pay less attention to the fact-checking response or dismiss it as the usual he-said-she-said of American politics."

____________________

sherman:

Yes, Wall Street contributes more money to Dems because it now considers the failed policies of the GOP bad for business. Wall Street used to be all conservative. Fortunately, Wall Street knows markets, and the stock of Republicans has been falling. That's why they aren't buying any more Republican stock.

____________________

zen:


Bradly Effect?
In which century are you living?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Whitetower you should be concerned about what the world thinks, especially China, since they own a great portion of our debt. Rethuglicans are damn TRADERS and hate America.

____________________

HaloFan:

its connected to explorer -

____________________

jatchwa:

Whitetower -- would you say the same about General Eisenhower?

____________________

zen:

to Halofan;

as far as i remember, AOL's poll is extremely right wing.

So don't be deluded by that

____________________

NW Patrick:

KipTin how do you misinterpret "I don't know... I DONT KNOW THAT MUCH ABOUT THE ECONOMY?"

____________________

hyh:

@ KipTin:
For this campaign cycle (since end of July)--
Lehman employees donated $361,000 to Obama compared to $117,500 McCain.

Merrill Lynch employees donated $191,000 to Obama compared to $297,000 McCain.

Summary: Obama's campaign topped McCain. Total $552,000 to Obama and $414,500 to McCain.
--

Obama took 66 million during August while McCain took 47 million. That's the tip of the iceburg. This is nothing.

____________________

WaveFunction:

WhiteTower -

Dangerous and unfounded? Have you been paying attention? The primaries were won for Obama by the a combination youth vote and African-American turnout. There's going to be a massive increase - 20 - 40% in both this year over 2004. You seem to be making up facts and predictions as you go along.

____________________

NW Patrick:

"I was confused about the Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates, but I think I understand this election a little better now.

Let me see if I have this straight.....

* If you grow up in Hawaii, raised by your grandparents, you're "exotic,
different."
* Grow up in Alaska eating moose burgers, a quintessential American story.

* If your name is Barack you're a radical, unpatriotic Muslim.
* Name your kids Willow, Trig and Track, you're a maverick.

* Graduate from Harvard law School and you are unstable.
* Attend 5 different small colleges before graduating, you're well grounded.

* If you spend 3 years as a community organizer, become the first black
President of the Harvard Law Review, create a voter registration drive that
registers 150,000 new voters, spend 12 years as a Constitutional Law professor,
spend 8 years as a State Senator representing a district with over 750,000
people, become chairman of the state Senate's Health and Human Services
committee, spend 4 years in the United States Senate representing a state of 13
million people while sponsoring 131 bills and serving on the Foreign Affairs,
Environment and Public Works and Veteran's Affairs committees, you don't have
any real leadership experience.
* If your total resume is: local weather girl, 4 years on the city council and 6
years as the mayor of a town with less than 7,000 people, 20 months as the
governor of a state with only 650,000 people, then you're qualified to become
the country's second highest ranking executive.

* If you have been married to the same woman for 19 years while raising 2
beautiful daughters, all within Protestant churches, you're not a real
Christian.
* If you cheated on your first wife with a rich heiress, then left your
disfigured wife and married the heiress the next month, you're a true Christian.

* If you teach responsible, age appropriate sex education, including the proper
use of birth control, you are eroding the fiber of society.
* If, while governor, you staunchly advocate abstinence only, with no other
option in sex education in your state's school system while your unwed teen
daughter ends up pregnant, you exemplify responsibility.

* If your wife is a Harvard lawyer who gave up a position in a prestigious law
firm to work for the betterment of her inner city community, then gave that up
to raise a family, your family's values don't represent America's.
* If you're husband is nicknamed "First Dude", with at least one DWI conviction
and no college education, who didn't register to vote until age 25 and once was
a member of a group that advocated the secession of Alaska from the USA, your
family represents the core values of this country.

OK, much clearer now."

____________________

Connor:

Greg in Charlotte,

You damage your credibility by:

1. using a Limbaughism ("drive-by media")

2. spelling reputation "reputaion"

McCain better have a third act (second act for McCain/Palin). But considering that McCain has been "winging it" most of the time, I doubt he has anything else up his sleeve.

Bush in 2000 had a narrative: "change" (aka "not a lying sex-fiend like that other feller")/outsider, then regular guy/have a beer with me, dude!, and then "compassionate conservatism." (Though "C.C" should maybe be the third act. And I'm not sure that I should be citing that as a "winning" strategy considering that he lost by over half a million votes. More legal strategy than anything else.)

What is McCain's? "Experienced old soldier." But that didn't get much attention. Then he stumbled into Palin, so now it's not experienced old soldier, but new, fresh..."change" (ugh). But the media's been chipping away hard at this second part (look at Richard Cohen's new piece, and that guy's the absolute definition of "the press that's in the tank for McCain"). However hard McCain might try to bring us into a new "act" (with a gleeful assist from the Obama camp), the media is already crafting one for him: "liar," "dishonorable," "sleaze."

____________________

Basil:

@HaloFan

The AOL poll questions (and other self-selecting internet polls) are answered by people who don't know that the results are meaningless and aren't aware that it's just a gimmick to get you to click on something they want you to click on.

I'm guessing the AOL poll respondents are older and/or less educated and thus more likely to vote R. I know a lot of folks who used to use AOL, but all have switched since. More savvy AOL users wouldn't bother with those polls.

R's are not the education party. They're the know-nothing party.

____________________

Connor:

NW Patrick,

I would add "If you, as mayor of a small-town, advocate charging rape victims for their own rape kits (used by police to identify the perpetrator)," you are a staunch defender of 1. women and 2. family values.

____________________

StandardDeviation:

@Whitetower:

The internals on the DailyKos R2K: 18-29 (18%).

The 18-29 age group comprised 14% of the Dem primary this year, so with the spike in voter registration for the general (presumably a good chunk of new voters will be in this age range), I could see it approaching 18%.

The more disturbing data for the McCain camp is the sharp decline in the favorability ratings for Palin (45/44 in the DailyKos). It was 51 favorable, 37 unfavorable on 9/12.

Enthusiasm for McCain has been largely driven by Palin, so this is really a number to watch to see if it recovers.

____________________

QuietOpinion:

This is essentially noise. People get far too excited about tiny fluctuations within the MoE. If it keeps up for a few more days, we might agree that McCain's bounce has finally faded. Then we'll see what the debates bring about, because the convention timing and near-overlap appears to have done no more than was expected: temporary swings.

____________________

HaloFan:

I think that the polls at AOL are onto something....

____________________

Connor:

StandardDeviation,

I agree. I think that McCain's bounce comes solely from Palin. This is good and bad for McCain. Good because she captured the media's attention for two full-weeks. Bad because, post-interview, the reality of her candidacy is sinking in. He's effectively put his entire campaign into her hands: he sinks or swims with her.

There is a certain political genius in the decision, but the problem is that Palin's record doesn't back up her initial hype. And her experience is...razor thin. Imagine if Kerry had picked Obama as his running mate in 2004 (and let's change the timeline a bit and say that at that point, O had been a senator for 1.5 years).

People forget that around August 2007, the media had written-off Obama completely. He had to "earn" his way back to the initial Obama hype with intense interviews, public appearances, speeches, etc etc.

Here's where the partisan in me kicks in: I think Obama is a remarkable individual and so he's largely succeeded in this respect. But Palin? I honestly don't think she has it in her. Nor does her record reflect anything but a power-hungry, remarkably vindictive pol with limitless ambition.

____________________

StandardDeviation:

@WaveFunction

Youth vote will not increase 40%.

50% of all eligible youth voters already voted in 04. That number was 64% in battleground states. It will go up no doubt, but not as much as you predict.

Keep in mind that the youth vote needs to increase disproportionately to the other age groups. It's not enough to know that youth participation will increase this year. You need to know the expected increase (or decrease) in other age groups to predict what the percentages will be.

____________________

Connor:

I'd like to add that I don't mean this to be "cruel" or sniping, I just don't get the impression that Palin is really that smart or that thoughtful.

And about the lying: this is already catching up with them. McCain is running a 1988 campaign in 2008. The way we gather and process information is so radically different that 1988 (hell, it's different from 2004) might as well be 1948.

____________________

Stillow:

Sorry Obamaniacs....locally here they had the traditional presidential racing turtle contest. the McCain turtle won hands down....and since the 1950's when this began, the race has an 88% accuracry rating. Its over for Obama now..................

____________________

change:

Hey, everyone keeps knocking the dalily kos/ research 2000 poll - but five thirty eight has them up there with the highest ranking pollsters (even higher then gallup)- this ranking is based on accuracy from past primaries and elections.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Typo, Never

Look, don't get all butt hurt over a figure of speech. I did not word it as humor nor can you conclude from what I wrote that I think rape is a positive thing.

if you want to talk about "rape" perhaps we can talk about Sarah Palin wanting to charge rape victims for rape kits, or perhaps her stance on abortion rights and how it would affect rape victims...that kind of thing.

There is an entire slew of words that I could use to describe what Obama did to John McCain this morning: "Massacre," "Destroy," Killed." Unfortunately for you, that does not mean I condone killing or destruction.

So, nice attempt at pouncing on my choice of words. But please, stop distracting us all from the real issues at hand and the news of the day, such as Obama BEHEADING McCain on the economy this morning.

____________________

boskop:

you know nate and friends over at 538 are pretty new at this and not necessarily the Oracle.

yes, they got the more recent primaries right their great claim to fame being indiana.

that is not a promise of perfection to come.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@ NW Patrick

This is awesome!

* If you have been married to the same woman for 19 years while raising 2
beautiful daughters, all within Protestant churches, you're not a real
Christian.
* If you cheated on your first wife with a rich heiress, then left your
disfigured wife and married the heiress the next month, you're a true Christian.

____________________

Justin:

Odds that Greg in Charlotte and HaloFan are the same kid?

I think I've found something that all but "two" (read: one) of us can agree on.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@NW Patrick

I'm going to forward that whole thing to everyone I know. :)

____________________

Tybo:

9.9 million to obama from lehman and merrill
6.9 million to mccain from same

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080916/pl_bloomberg/ambsgo09sxvo;_ylt=AhLBWj7m0XURqH2eQI1Pz_is0NUE


____________________

player:

So why would your wife go on national tv and cut a rug with a high profile sodomite?

____________________

boskop:

Obama has to strike back about foreclosure lists.
He's tapping a really sensitive nerve about the 2000 ordeal.

but it is a s mokescreen to cover the reason the gop is trying to get a handle on it: ACORN was served last month with 37 heading to the clinker.
obama gave several hundred million in earmarks to this org and was well known in the org.

cleveland went to town on them :
//CLEVELAND -- A national organization that conducts voter registration drives for low-income people has curtailed its push in Cuyahoga County after the Board of Elections accused its workers of submitting fraudulent registration cards.

The board is investigating the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now. Results of the inquiry could be turned over to the county prosecutor.

Board employees said ACORN workers often handed in the same name on a number of voter registration cards, but showing that person living at different addresses. Other times, cards had the same name listed, but a different date of birth. //

____________________

Tybo:

kerrch, you left out

God Damnnnnnn America!

____________________

HaloFan:

justin....
same odds that obama will win LOL

stupid socialist

We are NOT the same

____________________

Stillow:

Well its probably valid to point out that Obama's pastor was a raging anti-american loon. Only God knows what else he said when the ccamera wasn't on.....
No one should be questioning the religious beleifs of either side....to do so is unamerican and has no place here. Both men seem to be good people who simply have differing views on how to approach certai issues of the day.

____________________

Connor:

player,

"So why would your wife go on national tv and cut a rug with a high profile sodomite?"

Who/what are you talking about? I genuinely want to know.

____________________

NW Patrick:

McCain's in trouble. If obama can grab the Economic mantle, which he can, if he's persistent. It's over. McCain could NEVER match the detail of Obama's address today.

AMERICANS FOR A S M A R T president!

____________________

boskop:

@tybo

you should also google for lobbyists working for obama of which there are zillions.

the boston papers covered it royally back in the fall and it really should be papered around today.


____________________

Connor:

If the future of the GOP lies in the hands of internet dorks that go by the name "HaloFan," the GOP is doomed.

____________________

HaloFan:

Ok how long will it be for the rebubs. to bring up the whole Wright thing again.

I say in two weeks.

and then two weeks before the election

____________________

kerrchdavis:

I don't really get what argument you cons are trying to make by saying that more money was donated to the Obama campaign than the McCain one by Wall St. If ANYTHING, it tells me that they desperately wanted to donate to someone that they felt would be better economically for America.

Why don't you guys dig up the amount of TOTAL corporate money donated to both campaigns (with a focus on Oil companies, lobbyists, special interest groups etc) and scream "bloody murder" over those statistics.

____________________

Kris:

greg in charlotte:
"reality check heres your reality check .The dems programs that forced these lenders to loan money to losers with bad credit. Blame Bill Clinton"

C'mon! McCain himself said he'd been warning of the problems in the economy 18 months ago. Given that -- who was running the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives 18+ months ago, when these problems were developing? Oops -- THE REPUBLICANS!!! Fact is, corporate greed and regulation brought this crisis down on us. The sin of the Democratic leaders, if any, has been their decision to just ride out the storm until Bush is gone (i.e., taking the impeachment option off the table, etc.).

Clinton left the Republican's woodshed a long time ago, once it became clear that the Republican's incompetencies went far beyond any of Clinton's wrongdoings.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@tybo

Why would I say that? I love this country, don't you?

Please stop distracting and stay on topic.

____________________

Kris:

greg in charlotte:
"reality check heres your reality check .The dems programs that forced these lenders to loan money to losers with bad credit. Blame Bill Clinton"

C'mon! McCain himself said he'd been warning of the problems in the economy 18 months ago. Given that -- who was running the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives 18+ months ago, when these problems were developing? Oops -- THE REPUBLICANS!!! Fact is, corporate greed and regulation brought this crisis down on us. The sin of the Democratic leaders, if any, has been their decision to just ride out the storm until Bush is gone (i.e., taking the impeachment option off the table, etc.).

Clinton left the Republican's woodshed a long time ago, once it became clear that the Republican's incompetencies went far beyond any of Clinton's wrongdoings.

____________________

Connor:

kerrchdavis,

Don't you see? Obama is simultaneously a corrupt capitalist AND a naive, hippy communist!

It's kind of like when he advocated strikes on al-Qaeda in Pakistan (without Pakistani government permission): he was simultaneously a trigger-happy, warhawk AND a wimpy peacenik!

One of the reasons Obama has done so well (I never expected him to win the primaries) is due to the fact that the GOP can't come up with a consistent "label" to tag Obama with.

____________________

Stillow:

@Kris

That is exactly right. the Dems and the media ignore it, but it was leftist programs which forced lnders to not disqualify lower end buyers with bad credit. You have g'ment regulated freddie and fannie collapse....and then the dems and the g'ment say see, we need more regulation.....The pure idiocy is clear as day, but the left and the media spin it very well. The left caused the problem with there policies, then avoid blame by claiming deregualtion was to blame, when freddie and fannie are g'ment run entities.
This is hte left wing tactic of old....it needs people as stupid as possible to get elected.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Yah it just happens that every time a Republican has hold of the US Economy it just falls apart. Yah, must be the fall out from the previous DEM administration. Facts are folks sill men. You can find "statistics" for your candidate, who got more from oil, what banks gave more from who, but LET'S LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE:

Wrap your minds around these F A C T S. Per Forbes magazine, the top 3 presidents in US, Post World War history, are all DEMS. Republicans FAIL. SIMPLE as that. Look at all the numbers. It’s astonishing.

Postwar Presidencies Ranked By Six Measures Of Economic Performance:

#1 Clinton #2 Johnson #3 Kennedy

Why on God's GREEN EARTH would you even consider electing A Republican considering the state our country is in? How many failed Republican administrations will it take before you realize you are consistently voting against your best interests.

John McCain, I AM NOT a Georgian, I AM AN AMERICAN. Start putting the interests of MY COUNTRY 1st!!!!

http://www.forbes.com/2004/07/20/cx_da_0720presidents.html


____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Stillow

Obama denounced his pastor for those comments. Was it politically motivated? I'm sure to an extent. But I doubt even you, Stillow, truly believe that Obama's beliefs mimic the comments of his sometimes radical pastor. In fact, I think, bias aside, you know they don't. You also know that all of us have gone on tirades before that are sometimes senseless and born out of frustration. Certainly you and I both have, right in this forum. Does that make it ok? No. But does that mean it is representative of all his teachings as a pastor? hell no.

And, if you truly think that no one should be questioning the religious beliefs of the other side, why would it be valid to point out Obama's pastor's beliefs in the line immediately before? It's like me saying "It is valid for the voting public to know that McCain is a complete asshole. However, voters should not be basing this election on character one bit." You somehow managed to contradict yourself in the very next sentence.

In any case, I agree with you that challenging the religious beliefs of both men is out of place. I fully expect you to be right beside me as one of the first to reject the Rev. Wright commercials when they commence.

____________________

I have really tried to stay independent in this election, and wait to see the debates. But McCain's campaign is getting to be a tad despicable, which is sad, because I used to have great admiration for the man. On top of that, I've been kind of shocked at how badly and disorganized his campaign has been. Can't he keep even his top line, senior advisors on message?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1Jr4YfSemk

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@ Ulysses

So she keeps digging a deeper hole?

____________________

Stillow:

@kerrchdavis:


You clearly missed hte point...read it more slowly, it will come to you. You can't bash McCain and expect Obama to not get bashed....my statement was leave relgiion out of it....there faith is there own business. People like you trashng McCain like that are sick...it was one sides, I simply pointed out before you attack McCain, be sure your own guy is standing under a house of cards when the wind blows. Leave religion out of it. Its pretty sickto say someone is more chritain than someone else, etc.....get over yourself and discuss real issues like your side always claims it want sto do.....

____________________

Stillow:

You libs keep yapping about how you want to talk about issues, how Obama wants to talk about issues. Yet all I see on htis thread is name calling from the left...calling McCain stupid, mean, dishonest and an outright liar. Now you have some comapring his christainism with obama's....you guys on the left are insane.
McCain challenged Obama to a series of town hall ebates, what better way to have htem both discuss "issues" with hte people??? Obama REFUSED! He chickened out....he want sto talk about anything but issues. He would rather use bumper sticker slogans and one sides blabber than to debate McCain on issues. I would love to have seen them engage in town halls so we can clearly get there viewpoints...instead Obama runs away fro mthe challenge.....so he can stick with his cute little bumper sticker sayings....
So before you complain about not talking issues, stop with the name calling.....and tell Obama to put his money where is mouth is and take the town hall challenge so we can discuss real issues.

____________________

Whitetower:

Sorry, there simply aren't enough under-30 voters to really matter. It's simple demographics: the US has an aging population so inreasing numbers of under-30 voters will have to turnout just to maintain their proportion of the total turnout.

To wit: even though the under-30 vote turnout is essentially the same since 1972 (approx. 50-55%), this age cohort has steadily seen their overall proportion of the total turnout decline from to 14% to 9%.

In the next few election cycles (say by 2016 or so) over 70% of the under-30 group will have to vote to remain even 10% of the total turnout.

There is no hidden mass of youth so it is highly unlikely that more than 12-14% of the total turnout will be under-30 voters.

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf
(see especially table 3)

____________________

thoughtful:

Bounce is over! Obama is back in the lead.

Sarah Palin breaks the "do no harm" principle.

Granted that she has rallied the base around John McCain who remains fairly unloved by the party's base, the same base that loves Sarah Palin.

Even if you give little credit to Hot line and R 2000 polls the trend that they show from McCain to Obama is reflected by the Gallup and Rasmussen poll.

It doesn't take a genius to look back on my prediction that Rasmussen polls would be used to create the impression of BIG MO for McCain/Palin.

These Rasmussen state polls because of his quantity is now distorting the trend lines.

Just as McCain/Palin have been called out on their lies and will be called Liars for the rest of the campaign. Rasmussen is taking a risk with damaging his reputation as a pollster, in my opinion.

If Virginia continues on its journey from red to blue, it makes the battle for the West that much easier. I believe Obama keeps Kerry's mid-west states + Iowa. If Obama takes Ohio its over anyway.

Anyway lets hope it remains competitive and civil up to the debates.

I don't think the American people are going to reward Politicians who slander the other side, THIS TIME!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@ stillow

woah! getting a bit defensive, aren't we buddy?

"People like you trashng McCain like that are sick...Its pretty sickto say someone is more chritain than someone else, etc."

Um, when did I attack McCain's religion? If you are referring to my response to Patricks comment, YOU need to read what both HE and I said more slowly. It was a RESPONSE to the common cheap criticisms of OBAMA and a way to point out hypocrisy...

actually, YOU said it best: "You can't bash McCain and expect Obama to not get bashed." Exactly! It was a response to the people who start bashing Obama without considering the skeletons in their own candidates closet.

I'm pretty sure I attack McCain mostly on:

- thinking the fundamentals of our economy are strong
- admitting he knows very little about the economy
- being a pathological, uninspiring liar
- being a complete hypocrite and flip-flopper
- being, by most accounts, a nasty person with a bad temper who cheated on and left his crippled wife
- being a terrible student

and much more.

So please, don't start accusing me of attacking someones religion because YOU misinterpreted a single comment. And btw, I read your comment again...slower this time. You're still a hypocrite for bringing up Obama's pastor and then saying "we should not talk about religion."

____________________

change:

Tommorow CNN polls: indiana, north carolina, washington, florida and ohio-= for some reason i trust CNN, how do you guys feel?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Oh boy, I think stillow is on the brink of losing it again.

Robi, are you here to see this? Stillow is about to go off the deep end AGAIN.

____________________

thoughtful:

Change

FOX and CNN are News Entertainment Channels. I take both of them with a very healthy dose.

In CNN case no Internals on their polls so who knows on their quality?

____________________

Stillow:

LOL, see, I bring up up the topic of debating issues....and you libs all of a sudden resort to name calling and personal attacks...oh stillow is going off the deep end....

I gotta hand it to you guys, this is stuff right out of the liberal playbook...I mean this is page 1 stuff......distract from the issues...then prosnally attack.

____________________

DecaturMark:

These daily trackings numbers have been slowly moving back to the pre-convention bounces. The long legs of McCain's bounce was two-fold: a. he announced Palin as his VP the day after the DNC (to reduce Obama's bounce) and b. Palin was an engaging topic for the media. But now it appears that America has started to open their eyes to see that the Emperor has no clothes. Palin's numbers are starting to slide. Her novelty was the main reason for his spike in the polls. By the time of the first debate, Obama will have a consistant lead in the daily's.

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/16/palin-s-favorability-ratings-begin-to-falter.aspx

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@thoughtful, change

CNN seems to have been pretty good so far, I've felt. Nothing to hard to the left or the right in terms of polling. It's been a while though...

____________________

thoughtful:

@Stillow

McCain was a serial adulterer, seem to enjoy being one as well. Now I don't know and its none of my business what happens in his current marriage or his religion. doesn't bother me.

I want to see his mental health and Psychological profiles from his military days. Thats important because his temperament is an issue.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@stillow

Cry us all a river.

@Decatur

Agreed. Even if we all argue over which polls are lib and con or over or misrepresenting repubs, there is clearly a TREND that is giving Obama momentum. Is is possible that perhaps McCains numbers are STILL higher than they should be because the bounce hasnt fully receded yet? It's very possible they might continue to fade for another week or two.

The problem I have is I cant tell if McCain's numbers are fading because of a receding bounce, Palin showing America she doesnt know anything, her glow wearing off OR the economy being thrust into the spotlight.

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

Obama was a serial drug user.....I don't know about his current status, but.....

C'mon, your arguments are weak. Where are the issues you guys claim to want to discuss? Its all name calling and personal attacks...just like Obama, you guys are running away from any challenge about talking issues.

____________________

Stillow:

@kerrchdavis

Well, just like Obama, you are afraid of the issues. When you grow up and ready to have an actual debate on issues, without your normal name calling and personal attacks, the rest of us will be here.

____________________

player:

@Connor:
Michelle was dancing with Ellen Degeneres on her show last week. They were getting to it. That kind of symbolism won't be accepted in heartland USA.

____________________

thoughtful:

The issue is very simple: do we want a serial Liar President?

All of Obama's policy positions are well known.

____________________

Connor:

@Stillow

"Serial drug user"? Oh man, try harder! Seriously: how old are you?

And "afraid of the issues"? Yes, that's right. That's why Obama is accusing McCain of being a sexist, a pedophile...wait a minute...

____________________

Stillow:

Unbeleivable....I'm totally convinced now, all liberals do is name call and personally attack those they disagree with....there's no desire to talk issues.......point fingers, call someone names and then personally destory them. Same old crap from the 60's........

And you guys sit there and wonder why you don't win elections? Try growing up and actually debating the issues instead of whining and calling people names......its hopeless for you guys!

____________________

DecaturMark:

@kerrch

I think that McCain's #'s were driven by a very good RNC, his ability to loosen the Bush mantel around his neck and Palin's fresh face. But those positives were never going to sustain him until November. Sixty days is a long time to keep the wolves at the door. The American people wanted to see if this was a real change or a change of neccesity. They are seeing that it was done for strictly political purposes. There is no substanitive change coming from the McCain camp. He has quickly relied on becoming negative and untruthful. The American people will see through this. I was just surprised that it was taking so long.

____________________

Connor:

@player

She's a "sodomite"? Meaning she is someone who's had non-vaginal intercourse sex?

I guess that means that the U.S. in infested with sodomites!

OH NO! MOST ADULTS IN THE U.S. MUST BE SODOMITES!

SODOMITES! FROM...


SODOM!

____________________

change:

@ stillow

don't you think the republican convention was just a nasty hate fest displaying the darkside of america. the side that lied us into war, hurt the middle class, committed torture, and is not diverse at all. and as to whether Mccain is part of this the proof is in the pudding: agreed with bush 90% of the time- check. voted with the war with Iraq-check. Flip flopped on torture to get his party nomination-check.. and this is what you support u filth scum? The right wings evangelical extremism is driving us down the ****ter

____________________

Stillow:

@Connor

Obama's own words was he was addicted to drugs.....go read his books......

Obama is afraid of the issue, why else would he back down from mccains challenge to talk talk about issues in town halls? If Obama is so confident in his stances, he should have leaped at that chance to debate mccain....he ran away....so people like you can call mccain names.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Connor

I know, that's whats so funny. Obama has been trying to talk about the issues this entire cycle. McCain wants to talk about pigs and lipstick, pedophilia, sexism etc. And OUR candidate gets accused of avoiding the issues.

Stillow then accuses us of name calling although I suppose the rules don't apply to him since he can say that people like me are "sick."

tsk, tsk.

____________________

Connor:

@Stillow

You didn't answer: how old are you? Are you sure you're old enough to be on the internet?

MRS. STILLOW, YOUR SON IS POSTING RIDICULOUS RIGHT-WING TALKING POINTS ON THE INTERNET AGAIN. I THINK YOU BETTER COME DOWNTOWN TO THE STATION AND PICK HIM UP.

____________________

thoughtful:

Stillow

Your candidate got called out. You can build a reputation over many years it doesn't take very long to destroy it. That's what McCain has done by overplaying Rovian tactics.

So McCain is a Liar and offers nothing as the man has no credibility by te actions he has taken.

Obama's policies can be found on his web site.

____________________

Stillow:

@change

The RNC went afte robama...go back and watch the DNC, they beat the hell out of Bush, they beat the hell out of McCain.......they killed 'em.....the RNC did the same thing towards Obama...so whats wrong with that?
Dems are allowed to do it, but not repubs?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@change

careful. he might start crying about mean, name calling libs.

____________________

change:

obama passed an education bill to make sure children were not being molested.. sleazy mcsame turned it an ad saying he wanted to teach sex-ed to children... that is low, i dont care your party affiliation, it is just disgusting..face it!

____________________

Stillow:

Sheeesh, I guess this thread has tunred into a dailykos hate site.....ok you libs, I will be back later....please continue your name calling and personal attacks. I don't balme you for avoiding all the real issues.....your doing what ya do best, call 'em names, call 'em everything in the book....then destory them personally.

Geeeeez, so sad. I don't mind though, if calling me names and personally attacking me makes you guys feel better about yourselves, then I am glad I could help.

Keep it up....

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@stillow

there is a difference between attacking a candidate by saying "McCain supports the failed policies of GWB and votes with him 90% of the time" or "McCain admits he knows nothing about the economy" and attacking a candidate by saying things like "a mayor is kind of like a community organizer except they have actual responsibilities."

HUGE difference, kid.

____________________

NW Patrick:

The DNC talked about McCain/Bush policies. The RNC made fun of community organizers and the troubles facing every day Americans. Bye bye bounce!

____________________

player:

@Connor:
Heres a link to a dictionary that defines sodomite. It means, one who practices sodomy.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sodomite
If you don't know what it is, heres a link to the definition of sodomy
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sodomy

____________________

HaloFan:

I knew it
this is going to happen more and more.
If they see Obama is loosing they will play the race victim.
its already starting
wait its just the beginning

____________________

kerrchdavis:

It's funny to see someone call Obama a chicken for rejecting town hall debates and then run away because they're being attacked on an online forum for issues such as education bills or voting records.

Keep it up Stillow. Tell your mom she can call me later to have a word with me about your self confidence.

____________________

Connor:

@player

Dude, that's my exact point. From that definition of sodomy: "anal or oral copulation with a member of the same or opposite sex."

Most adults in the U.S. (gay and straight) have engaged in one of those two acts (and the last time I checked, most heterosexual adults had even ventured into the first act mentioned there. Oh NO, player! Oh NO!). Including President Bill Clinton. Who, I guess, you'd call a "sodomite," right?

Just because you cling to strange, puritanical values doesn't mean that the rest of the country does.

____________________

zotz:

player-
If that's all you can think about maybe you're on the wrong website.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@player

how does sodomy have ANYTHING to do with this election?

____________________

Tybo:

"obama passed an education bill to make sure children were not being molested"

ah, perhaps barack should read the bills he passes. It says nothing about protecting children, it does talk about sex-ed.

and perhaps you should read the bill you "believe" you know

____________________

Connor:

@kerrchdavis

"Keep it up Stillow. Tell your mom she can call me later to have a word with me about your self confidence."

I don't think she can right now. She's downtown, picketing an abortion clinic.

____________________

NW Patrick:

You're asking a low info. voter to READ?

____________________

Tybo:

thoughtful:
The issue is very simple: do we want a serial Liar President?

...

nope, and that's why obama must be rejected.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@typo

old news, get your facts straight buddy.

"Obama, contrary to the ad's insinuation, does not support explicit sex education for kindergarteners. And the bill, which would have allowed only "age appropriate" material and a no-questions-asked opt-out policy for parents, was not his accomplishment to claim in any case, since he was not even a cosponsor – and the bill never left the state Senate."

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/off_base_on_sex_ed.html

____________________

HaloFan:
____________________

change:

evangelical extremists are counting on mcsame to continue their crusades into more Middle eastern countries; days after 9/11 mcsame said "next up Baghdad"

wall street is counting on mcsame to continue giving tax cuts to more wealthy corporations

Military Industrial Complex is counting on Mcsame to start more wars

And bush is counting on mcsame to continue his legacy!!!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

the PURPOSE of the bill was to prevent children from being attacked by sexual predators.

____________________

Connor:

@HaloFan

Seriously. You post under the name "HaloFan"? You're not the least bit embarrassed?

You see guys, this is what happens when dorks get beaten up too much in high school: they become racist right-wingers.

____________________

player:

What I am saying it symbolism. What does that show to the people who are religious? You don't actually believe that religious people think that sodomy is OK do you? Its against their moral biblical teachings. You probably do and that is your problem. Why do you think that George Bush kept calling Saddam Hussein, Sodom Hussein back in the 90s? Maybe you were still in diapers. Why do you think that Michelle doing that dance with Degeneres was shown dozens of times on Fox.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@decatur

Whats so weird to me is that it seems as though a convention can convince 5-10% of individuals to support a candidate, yet that number fades almost everytime.

____________________

Tybo:

you mean fact check, that partisan group that uses the term "faux news" to describe items it doesn't care for?

Like I said, YOU and Obama should read the bill


have you?

NO

Have I ? Yes

it was one poorly worded peice of junk that does not reference protecting kids from molesters..

so therefore... you are wrong.

____________________

Tybo:

connor you should talk to the other obama ludites about what bill they believe obama passed, and what bills fact check.obama believes were passed.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Tybo

You are just as disingenuous as the candidates you support.

McCain and Palin have been called out even Megyn Kelly of FOX called Tucker Bounds out today on it.

McCain has destroyed his own reputation my engaging in Rovian gutter tactics and over playing his hand.

The American people aren't as stupid as these Republicans think.

____________________

Connor:

@player

"You don't actually believe that religious people think that sodomy is OK do you? Its against their moral biblical teachings"

I guarantee you that the vast majority of said "religious people" have performed what you'd call "sodomy." Maybe with someone they loved! Maybe even with their husband/wife!

Oh no, player! OH NO!

"when you were still in diapers."

I'm 28. But keep trying!

Don't give up, player! Don't give up just because I'm a player-hater!

In the meantime, maybe read this book? http://www.amazon.com/Forbidden-Fruit-Religion-American-Teenagers/dp/0195320948/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-3035242-4160949?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1180612088&sr=8-1

It has some interesting stats.

____________________

Tybo:

thoughtful, you are just as disingenous as obama claims McCain is ..

Obama left out rove's full comments.

and Obama pretends his OPINION of a bill he voted for is what the vote says.

Facts say otherwise.

____________________

boomshak:

These polls are actually SHOCKINGLY GOOD NEWS for McCain!

Here's why:

First of all, we can just throw out the DailyKos Poll with its 360 daily sample and 9% weighting advantage to Democrats. At this point, a national poll with a margin of error + 5 points is just a waste of good ink.

Secondly, the Hotline poll stands out for two things - a horribly weighted sample and zero confirmation anywhere else amongst reputable polls.

Ok, now that we have that out of the way, let's look at Rasmussen and Gallup.

The good news for McCain here is that Obama has been stuck around 46 for 5 days on Gallup and 47 for Rasmussen. The reason the polls have tightened is not due to growth by Obama but shrinkage by McCain. In other words, Obama is topped out around 47.

So why the shrinkage by McCain? Easy. When Sarah Palin first came out, there was a big rush of Independents to her. Independents are notoriously flaky and after 2 week of mercilous pounding daily in the MSM, it is only to be expected for some of them to fall back into the undecided column.

The the HUGE thing here is that Indendents leaving McCain are NOT going to Obama. That is HUUUUGE.

This means that that want McCain/Palin, but are playing wait and see to see how Palin does going forward.

Anyway, if I were Team Obama and I saw that the Messiah was maxxed out here around 46/47, i'd be freaking out.

____________________

HaloFan:

Conner.....

Am a Anaheim angels fan.
dork....

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@tybo

so tell us then, what does factcheck say that is incorrect? Tell us SPECIFICALLY why it is wrong and tell us why MANY conservative analysts and politicians agree that the ad is bull****.

____________________

Connor:

@HaloFan

Whoah, whoah, whoah. Slow-down...you like baseball?

...

Dude, what?

Okay: you dig on baseball and Halo. And you really DO have a girlfriend in Canada, y'all are just long distance and she can't afford to fly down here that's why no one ever sees her.

____________________

damitajo1:

Do serious pollsters take mild, within the margin of error, one-day poll changes seriously? It takes a while to make a trend stick. That's why convention bounces should be ignored. McCain had a trend because his bounce lasted over a week. It's unclear what this "movement" means.

____________________

boomshak:

thoughtful:

You are aware your guys is still losing, right? You are aware he has had zero movement in a week?

Do you feel encouraged for some reason?

____________________

Connor:

boomshak is here!

And he has SHOCKINGLY GOOD NEWS! He's LOLing from here to high heaven!

These polls cause him to ROTFLM(B)O!

GUYS, WE CAN JUST THROW OUT THAT RESEARCH 2000 POLL!

NO, NO! IT'S ALL GOOD! BOOM-DADDY SAID SO!

____________________

boomshak:

You want a TREND? Obama 46-47 for a week. THAT'S a trend.

____________________

HaloFan:

sure do
I wana see the angels and cubs in the WS

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

"the PURPOSE of the bill was to prevent children from being attacked by sexual predators."

No, actually not. The purpose of the bill was to teach sex ed to K through 12. The preventing children from predators was only one aspect of the bill.

Read the bill and lear the truth.

____________________

Connor:

@HaloFan

Well that certainly makes you a real man!

I was TOTALLY wrong when I called you a right-wing dork who posts bigoted, right-wing propaganda under the name "HaloFan"!

____________________

HaloFan:

I maried a Canadian you silly prick

____________________

player:

@Connor:
Thats what I am saying. You were still in diapers. And if think that you know the sex lives of all the people, you are hopeless.But who cares. Its better if you think the way you do. Nuff said.

____________________

Connor:

@player

"Nuff said," indeed, player!

Nuff said!

____________________

metsmets:

The polls - all of them - aren't wacky enough. There is a very strange lack of variety as regards to the poll results. If you factor in the differential polling of Democratic voters and Republican voters then the polls are saying almost exactly the same thing. Why is this troubling? Using the normal curve as the ditribution of poll results, you would expect 68% of the results to be within one standard deviation of the mean. On its head that means that one in three polls should be outside the one standard deviation range. So where are those rogue polls? There aren't any. It should be possible if (say) McCain and Obama were tied at 47% to have polls that showed McCain with 50% and Obama at 44% and vice versa. That's well within the margin of error.
Yet the polls seem error free. It's as if the pollsters take the raw data and then manipulate it to fit the conventional wisdom.
I'm aware of tracking polls and three day averages but I still think the lack of variety is weird. Any comments?

____________________

thoughtful:

Boomshak

Even on Rasmussen's numbers Obama is leading.

You're just as deluded as your Candidates. (i haven't worked out who is more deluded Palin or Mccain)

The bounce is now over and now McCain is strictly relying on Rasmussen changing his ID weighting again this week end.

PS Have a look at Virginia tomorrow!

____________________

HaloFan:

No I am not a bigot - far from it
You just cant handle the truth

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

zero movement? are you sure about that buddy?

In the last 3 days, Obama has gained 2 points in Rasmussen and 3-4 points in Gallup in the last week. And if Obama stays at 47% while mcCain continues to sink, I'll go with it. Maybe we can have a final poll of McCain 20% Obama 47% with a lot of undecideds. I'll take our chances on that one.

I love your argument though, I really do. "You guys aren't doing any better coz your numbers aren't going up. Ours are just tanking, it does not really help you."

Nice, keep it up. We'll see where the trend goes as the economy continues to collapse while McCain continues to champion it's fundamental strength.

____________________

Tybo:

"The purpose of the bill was to teach sex ed to K through 12"

That's it!

""Keep in mind: I honor and respect young people who choose to delay sexual activity," Obama continued. "I’ve got two daughters, and I want them to understand that sex is not something casual. That's something that we definitely want to communicate and should be part of any curriculum. But we also know that when the statistics tell us that nearly half of 15 to 19 year olds are engaging in sexual activity, that for us to leave them in ignorance is potentially consigning them to illness, pregnancy, poverty, and in some cases, death."

When Obama's campaign was asked by ABC News to explain what kind of sex education Obama considers "age appropriate" for kindergarteners, the Obama campaign pointed to an Oct. 6, 2004 story from the Daily Herald in which Obama had "moved to clarify" in his Senate campaign that he "does not support teaching explicit sex education to children in kindergarten. . . The legislation in question was a state Senate measure last year that aimed to update Illinois' sex education standards with 'medically accurate' information . . . 'Nobody's suggesting that kindergartners are going to be getting information about sex in the way that we think about it,' Obama said. 'If they ask a teacher 'where do babies come from,' that providing information that the fact is that it's not a stork is probably not an unhealthy thing. Although again, that's going to be determined on a case by case basis by local communities and local school boards.'"


nothing about protecting kids from molesters..

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2007/07/sex-ed-for-kind.html

it just you know, Obama has waffled on that issue too.

____________________

player:

Here is a good analysis of exactly what that sex-ed bill that Obama supported had in it. The language is very clear.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NzI3ZDUzOTE0ZThlMTU3MTY0MDI4ZTY0MTZhY2I2MGY=&w=MQ==

____________________

Connor:

@HaloFan

I'm sorry, HaloFan. I didn't mean to call you a bigot. I guess when you got all pumped up and excited linking to an article about how "race" will be a major factor in this election, it gave me the impression that you were really happy that some Americans won't vote for Obama because he's black (clearly something to celebrate, huh? positive step for our country, right you Halo-playing HaloFan?).

You are CLEARLY not a bigot!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Here is my poll question of the day:

In a hypothetical match-up between stillow, tybo, boomshank, boskop, player and nevermetanhonestlib, who do you guys think has the worst grasp of the issues? I'm leaving halo out of this coz he's just nuts.

____________________

Connor:

kerrchdavis,

That's a tough one! That depends: which one is the deluded propagandist who suffered one-too-many-years of "abstinence-only education" only to become a sad, ghost of a man/boy with the almost super-power-like ability to ignore reality as we know it?

Oh wait...that's all of them!

____________________

player:

You can't run from what this bill says.
Senate Bill 99 struck out grade six, changing it to kindergarten, in addition to making a few other changes in wording. It read:

Each class or course in comprehensive sex education in any of grades K through 12 shall include instruction on the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, including the prevention, transmission and spread of HIV.

____________________

metsmets:

I have to stand up for Boomshak! I can't imagine how anyone, even in the McCain camp, could find as much joy in the national tracking polls today as he did! Bravo! I admire your ability to stand facts on their head!

"The boat isn't sinking as fast as the water is rising!"

Capt. Titanic.

____________________

Justin:

@Tybo

Hi. I've read the bill. You know... that bill you claim to have read yourself? The reason I have a hard time believing you... well, you see, if you'd read the bill you probably would have noticed the multiple times the words "age appropriate" are used. Perhaps you did in fact *skim* the bill looking for the word "sex" and the letter "K," but actually reading? No, I don't think so.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

lol!

Look, guys, you're not showing me anything new. Every link you post just convinces me more and more that Obama supported the sex-ed legislation because he believed it would be beneficial for the health, safety and well-being of the kids. There is nothing wrong with that.

Find me something that is consistent with the McCain ad implying that Obama is a pedophile.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

mets,

haha, isn't it ridiculous logic on his part? Oh well, gotta love the optimism I guess.

____________________

Connor:

boomshat,

Dude, you should send your resume to Newsweek! Clearly you're way smarter than this Andrew Romano guy: http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/16/palin-s-favorability-ratings-begin-to-falter.aspx

Romano's too focused on changes in "numbers"!

boomshat FEELS the ebb and flow of Palin's numbers!

____________________

HaloFan:

its called politics of guilt
say its becuase of race, to mak epeopel say hay am no racist see ill even vote for Obama
come on its clear as seeing that occoner is a left wing nut job

____________________

zotz:

Former treasury secratary Lawrence Summers just demolished McCain's record on banking regulation on David Gregory's show. He then said Obama was warning about the current banking crisis 18 months ago.

Gregory tried to push Summers into blaming Paulson but Summers put the blame squarely on the Republican deregulation of the banking industry. This is a very bad situation for McCain and he will get burned on this subject in the debates.

____________________

NW Patrick:

The two trackers showing Obama up by 3 and 4 are probably an outlier to the coming Rasumussen and Gallop polls later this week. Umm why is McCain losing his bounce in Rasm and Gallop if there is NO MOVEMENT? LOL
Economy will kill McCain because HE JUST DOESN'T GET IT.

____________________

metsmets:

I think everyone who votes against Obama is RACIST. Everyone who votes against McCain is AGEIST. Everyone who votes against Palin is SEXIST. And everyone who votes against BIDEN is damned by the Church in Rome. Anyone who votes for NADER or Barr is a lunatic.
AND ANYONE WHO DOESN'T VOTE isn't reading this anyway...so to H*ll with them!

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak come back here this Friday when obama is tied or ahead in both Rasm and Gallop then tell me your theory again:)

____________________

boomshak:

@Connor:

I read Newsweek right after I am done consulting DailyKos. Lol. If I want my news from the DNC, I'll call them.

____________________

Tybo:

"age appropriate"


yes, sex ed..

not what obama would spin.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

You left out Liebermann and FASCIST!

____________________

player:

I watched Lawrence Summers a few days ago try to explain why he is now against his very own polices that he had when he worked for Clinton. He got caught. He couldn't explain it. He looked like he was on drugs. What a scam artist. He might fool the Obamaphiles, but he can't fool anyone who has an education in the subject that he is suppose to be talking about.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshank

maybe you should get your news from the DNC. Once you're done twisting, spinning and lathering the news with all your bias and radical right wing crap, it just about evens out to neutral.

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

"zero movement? are you sure about that buddy?

In the last 3 days, Obama has gained 2 points in Rasmussen and 3-4 points in Gallup in the last week. And if Obama stays at 47% while mcCain continues to sink, I'll go with it. Maybe we can have a final poll of McCain 20% Obama 47% with a lot of undecideds. I'll take our chances on that one."

God, please grant me patience as I try to educate the unwashed.

You said: "In the last 3 days, Obama has gained 2 points in Rasmussen..."

3 days ago, Obama was at 47% in Rasmussen. Today he is at 47%. Obama has gained NOTHING. McCain has lost voters to "Undecided". - duh.

You said "...and 3-4 points in Gallup in the last week"

Obama has been at 45/46 for a week now.

Obama is GAINING NOTHING despite a 24/7 BJ from the MSM and a 2 x 4 colonoscopy of Sarah Palin by same.

____________________

player:

All you have to do is to look over to the top right on this web page at politics home.com and see the tape that reads Romney says that Obama will have to reverse course. Read what he told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. He is right on the money. Obama doesn't have a clue.

____________________

MB1122:

"...colonoscopy of Sarah Palin by same."

I hope you aren't saying that it isn't warranted

____________________

Justin:

Yes, Tybo, age appropriate sex education. Are you aware of what age appropriate actually means? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_appropriate

McCain's implication was that Obama wanted to teach Kindergartners about condom use and how to use the pill. Could you imagine the McCain ad with the words age appropriate?

"Barrack Obama supported a bill to teach our children age appropriate sex education. The horror! Wrong on Education, Wrong for blah blah blah."

How would people react if Obama put out the following ad:

"John McCain spent five years in the Hanoi Hilton. Hanoi? What's wrong with America's Hiltons, John? Why so much time oversees? America isn't good enough for John McCain? John McCain isn't good enough for America."

It's not ok to distort the truth this way. It's just not. Say it with me now: "Age Appropriate."

____________________

serpounce:

Actually Boom, isn't that exactly what you would expect from negative coverage of McCain? The fact that McCain & Palin have, in many people's eyes, "crossed the line," doesn't really give you a reason to want Obama.

Now it may very well be a problem for Obama that he didn't pick up those voters, I don't think it's particularly problematic because there has been negative coverage of McCain. And that's not to say I don't appreciate the mental image of the MSM collectively blowing Big O.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

Perhaps you don't see an opponents loss as your gain. If Obama was behind by 3 points and he is now TIED, he has GAINED 3 points on McCain, even if it's McCain's numbers that have sunk, genius.

And to put everything into context, you started this crap by saying that there is nothing for Obama fans to be happy about poll wise (even though he has closed the gap on mcCain in the past week).

Sp, according to you, if Obama stays at 47 and McCain drops down to 30 and Obama turns a 1 point deficit into a 17 point lead, he has gained nothing.

Go back to school.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

Look forward to your comments after the Virginia poll is published tomorrow.

Kerry States + IA + VA + NM + CO + NV minimum

____________________

Tybo:

Justin, it's not our fault if you misunderstood McCain's ad..

but Obama got it.. that's why he lied and said it was only about molesters.

of course the bill was so bad it failed.

____________________

Justin:

I misunderstood the ad? How did you interpret it?

____________________

Tybo:

now justin, say kindergarten sex.

now say reading , writing and math.

now say education.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Justin

I guess you and the whole bunch of REPUBLICANS criticizing the ad all misunderstood it.

lol!

____________________

Tybo:

Obama pays his female employees 85 cents on the dollar.

McCain pays his female employees 100 cents on the dollar.

endless, isn't obama's sexism.

____________________

Justin:

Sorry, Tybo. Until you can start forming sentences that makes sense I'm going to need to let you prattle on alone. If McCain is speaking the same language you are then that explains the misinterpretation.

____________________

Tybo:

"I guess you and the whole bunch of REPUBLICANS criticizing the ad all misunderstood it."

by that logic, the invasion of Iraq was briliant needed, and correct.

lol k and j!

____________________

Tybo:

justin.. i don't blame you for giving up.

it's hard to waste money on sex education when child need to learn to read, write and do math.

BUt that's not what Obama thinks is important.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Tybo

lol, so you admit then that the ad was based off of false information and intended to mislead just like the premise for the iraqi invasion?

Way to shoot yourself in the face, pal.

____________________

Tybo:

kerrch,, what you pointed out is that the democrats were all for the war, so by your logic the war was the correct choice.

thanks for playing..
maybe you can get a former clinton supporter so I can play agaisnt some one with a brain, unlike you.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

And clearly, you are a victim of the lack of funding for reading and writing as judged by your senseless rants and misspellings.

I can see why this topic is so close to your heart. Maybe McCain will throw some of that lobbyist money your way so that you can get an education.

Don't forget to use a condom, though.

____________________

Tybo:

poor kerrch, he pinpricked his hot air balloon of obama "logic"

____________________

kerrchdavis:

The point is that even if Republicans are criticizing the ad for being misleading, dirty and bull****...it likely went too far.

A false analogy using the Iraq War does nothing to back up your argument.

And if you want anyone to take you seriously, you're going to have to learn how to spell and put together coherent sentences.

____________________

Connor:

@Tybo (and various other fascist castrati here)

Yeah, I'll never forget my sex-ed/HIV awareness class. It was the 1980s in the FAR LEFT LIBERAL hot-bed of Round Rock, TEXAS. Lemme tell you, those HW Bush years in Texas were like a FREE-FOR-ALL for RADICAL liberalism!

Oh man. It was just PORNOGRAPHIC!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

But keep it up buddy. Nobody here takes you seriously anymore.

Did you mean to call yourself "typo," symbolizing your lack of education and then misspell that too?

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Stillow said...
"Well, just like Obama, you are afraid of the issues."

Stillow,

You might help your own argument if you got your facts correct.

On September 3, 2008, Rick Davis, campaign manager for John McCain's presidential bid, insisted that the presidential race will be decided more over personalities than issues during an interview with Post editors:

"This election is not about issues," said Davis. "This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates."

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/09/mccain_manager_this_election_i.html

Rick Davis, as campaign manager, bluntly states that the McCain campaign is NOT going to discuss the issues, but bring up personalities as the means to win the race. Personally, I think that is a very dangerous strategy unless McCain keeps an absolute pressure cooker lid on his temper - something he just barely did when he appeared on 'The View'.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

hmm, maybe he took my advice and went back to school.

____________________

player:

These Obamaphiles are truly amazing. They have no metal at all. They have to line to grab onto. Obama picks Biden as VP and don't you know it, he starts sounding like Biden. Its like he needs a host to survive.

____________________

Connor:

@Tybo

Yes! Yes! That's right! The old man who dumped his disfigured wife who waited for him for 5 years with his children, who cheated on her shamelessly, who left her for a young rich girl whom he married 1 month after his divorce, the same man who told disgusting jokes about a pre-pubescent girl's "ugliness," the same old man who called his wife a "cunt" in front of reporters, the same man who keeps telling some joke about how women like to be raped by gorillas, the same man who keeps voting against equal pay, the one who wants to overturn Roe v. Wade...

THAT's the woman-friendly candidate!

Yes, Tybo, YES!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

"These Obamaphiles are truly amazing. They have no metal at all. They have to line to grab onto. Obama picks Biden as VP and don't you know it, he starts sounding like Biden. Its like he needs a host to survive. "

Is this English?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Connor

LOL!

____________________

Connor:

@player

"These Obamaphiles are truly amazing. They have no metal at all. They have to line to grab onto. Obama picks Biden as VP and don't you know it, he starts sounding like Biden. Its like he needs a host to survive."

Whoah, whoah, player! Chew your RNC-talking points first, THEN speak! No one can understand you!

____________________

KipTin:

From Bloomberg today.......McCain hit back at a rally in Vienna, Ohio, pointing out that Obama ranked second among members of Congress in donations from employees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage companies placed into federal conservatorship on Sept. 7.

He also reminded the audience that Obama originally put former Fannie Mae Chairman James Johnson in charge of his vice presidential candidate search."

____________________

NW Patrick:

Silly thugs.

Wrap your minds around these F A C T S. Per Forbes magazine, the top 3 presidents in US, Post World War history, are all DEMS. Republicans FAIL. SIMPLE as that. Look at all the numbers. It’s astonishing.

Postwar Presidencies Ranked By Six Measures Of Economic Performance:

#1 Clinton #2 Johnson #3 Kennedy

Why on God's GREEN EARTH would you even consider electing A Republican considering the state our country is in? How many failed Republican administrations will it take before you realize you are consistently voting against your best interests.

John McCain, I AM NOT a Georgian, I AM AN AMERICAN. Start putting the interests of MY COUNTRY 1st!!!!

http://www.forbes.com/2004/07/20/cx_da_0720presidents.html

____________________

Tybo:

connor, equal pay for women is a laughing matter for the obama nation isn't it?

____________________

NW Patrick:

KipTin McCain can say whatever he wants. The fact is McCain's Republican party has been in control for 8 years. The American people will make that party pay:) You watch. Polls will start to move.

____________________

Tybo:

oops, patrick.. the democrats have been in control of the house and senate for 2 years..

and in that time they've done nothing--- that would be obama and company.

oh, wait, they have a presidential nominee who pays women less than men!

that's a nice step back ,isn't it?

____________________

Connor:

@Tybo

...

What?

Silly young fascist: It's Señor McCain who keeps voting against Equal Pay!

You young Republicans...listen guys: less time playing Halo, more time trying-not-to-cry-when-you-think-about-girls!

____________________

Kbvegas:

Reverse Bradley Effect??

Has anyone looked into the possibility of a Reverse Bradley Effect of some kind? I read something a while ago that said that during the primaries, Obama's average primary result in the SOUTHH was 7% higher than what he polled at prior to the election!! Even if we split that number in half and say that Obama could do 3 or 4 % better on election day than polls suggest, wouldn't that mean that he could potentially be in play in Fla, NC, and VA?? I just have a strong feeling that he can win Virginia with black turnout at historic highs.

Earlier, someone mentioned the Bradley effect but they must also keep in mind that in states where the Bradley effect (if you even believe it exists) could have an impact are states that also have high AA populations. High black turnout in Fla, PA, Ohio, Michigan (Detroit is 80% black, I used to live there), and possibly Indiana, VA, and NC could really make a difference in a close race. You can't underestimate the enthusiasm of 99% of African Americans over Obama. Nobody knows how strong a turnout we could really see...

____________________

KipTin:

Haven't you heard. McCain/Palin are running against their own party?

I do not fault Obama having a fundraiser, but the timing is not on his side for tonight's festivities hosted by Barbra Streisand's. Obama's "populist" message and his actions are again conflicted. Notably both Palin and McCain reminded their Ohio audience of that today.

____________________

slinky:

The FEDERAL RESERVE BANK has just agreed to take a stake in AIG, a heretofore private American corporation in exchange for an 85 billion dollar guarantee. See front page of NYTimes.

Note that we live under a Republican administration.

If that doesn't wake you miscreant Libertarian-Republicans up, nothing will.

The economy is in crisis, and Republicans caused it, and are trying to bail it out!

[I'm not sure they're using the right way to bail it out, incidentally; but they're trying because they don't know what else to do, and they want to prevent a free fall.]

Please wake me up when the Republicans decide what they want to do with Washington Mutual.

____________________

Tybo:

NO connor... the name calling doesn't fix it.

Obama pays 85cents on the dollar to women.

McCain pays the full boat.

it's what you do, not what you say.

Obama PAYS WOMEN less

You'd be screaming your head off if it was the other way around..

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

HaloFan said...
"Someone please answer me this question

"AOL (which is a left leaning internet site) has many polling questions. McCain usually wins sometimes by 20%.
Also check out there poll on the general election, McCain wins in every state.

"I know its an internet vote. However, You cant vote twice (using the same computer)"

Ummmm 'Halofan',

I know a couple of ways in which you can vote time after time after time on the AOHell polls without changing computers.

On another subject, you might also want to go back to school to learn how to spell ("there" vs. "their"; "cant" vs. "can't", "ill" vs. "I'll", for example); learn that you use "an" before a word that starts with a vowel; and learn how to properly use punctuation.

____________________

slinky:

Here are the main economic and regulatory issues:

Republican policies that resulted in current crisis (for Boomer):
(1) Restriction of FTC action (started severely under Reagan).
(2) Restriction of SEC action (started
under Reagan).
(3) Privatization of Fannie Mae and later Freddie Mac's invention and privatization (Reagan).
(4) Greenspan March 2002 at Senate Finance Committee Hearings: ""The notion of a bubble bursting and the whole price level coming down seems to me as far as a national nationwide phenomenon, is really quite unlikely,"
(5) "Greenspan, who calls himself a libertarian Republican"
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=14465152
(6) President makes both monetary and fiscal policy in this country. Congress investigates, passes laws, passes final budget if they can get it signed by Pres. Pres. proposes budget. Repubs. misrepresent the way Congress actually functions to shift blame to Dems. Dems only have had slim majorities in Congress since 2004. No override power.

Been said on this board many times.

(7) Worst tax bill in world was passed by this President and a Repugnican congress, just before attacks of 2001; Failure to repeal worst tax bill in world after attacks altered fundamentals of American Economy.
(8) "Great Country" with nearly 50 million people who can get sick and die tomorrow and would have to declare bankruptcy, with the state paying for their funeral.

Please, US is speeding toward trash can status, boomy.

(9) Justice Department was turned into a Repugnantkin bastion by Gonzalez (illegally). Note that although Congressional hearings have been held, and the famous midnight ride through the streets of Washington to the bedside of a sickened Atty General was detailed, no one did anything wrong according to the secret laws of this President.

Note: FTC, SEC, and Justice all under President's direct control, with advise and consent of the Senate, which, has all been subject to secret deliberation.

10) Energy policy set by VP under great secrecy rules. As we citizens understand it, all rules were NOT subject to Congress. approval and largely made by signing statment, several of which are secret.

11) End of Democracy through secrecy. Even on economic policy.

____________________

Connor:

@Tybo

Clearly Tybo has his hands on some indisputable facts! From the Internet no less!

It's MCCAIN that's pro-women's rights! Of course! It was there right in front of me this whole time! I guess that whole cheating-on-disfigured-wife-who-waited-for-him-for-5-years and calling-his-wife-a-cunt-in-front-of-reporters thing and talking-about-how-ugly-a-prepubescent-young-girl-is and cracking jokes about how-women-love-being-raped-by-gorillas and that whole overturn-roe-v-wade thing completely deluded me!

Watch out, Chuck Todd, Tybo's gonna have your job by next month!

And watch out Tina Fey! Tybo knows that your blatant SEXISM has put you "ON NOTICE"!

____________________

Tybo:

connor.. did you look up Obama's pay for women..

of course not..


you'd rather have stay ignorant

____________________

player:

@Conner:
Well you guys had a chance to pick Hillary and get a line. You didn't want it. Obama is a free roaming spirit. You can't catch a ride with him. His rhetoric is all intellectual hyperbole based on wishful thinking.

____________________

Connor:

@Tybo

Do you lap up right-wing radio/Fox News talking points with a spoon? Or do you have some kind of curly-straw-apparatus? Or is it more like a feeding tube? Or an IV?

____________________

slinky:

Repubs will do anything to avoid debating real issues detailed in 1-11 above.

Now, #12: Fed takes stake in private American company, AIG.

How do Repubs. like them apples?

(just happens to be near an election time; maybe Repubs are trying to prevent something they wouldn't want to muddy an election....).

____________________

player:

@Slinky:
Did you mean that the Federal Reserve is going to make a certain amount of funds available to AIG should it need them to keep from going under? What does that have to do with Republicans. The Federal Reserve isn't operated by the Bush Administration or Congress.

____________________

slinky:

Nonsense. The Fed. is responsive to the administration. Greenspan was a republican libertarin. Bernanke is a Republican moderate. There is no way that the Fed. and Treasury aren't working in concert.

You live in a formal world in which distinctions that don't exist are made for political purposes.

I live in the real world, where Andrea Mitchell is married to Greenspan.

____________________

Connor:

@player

"Obama is a free roaming spirit"

Dude, you just made Obama sound awesome!

I'm so sorry that you guys are stuck with Herr Franken McFascist.

But don't worry, you guys got some awesome dudes! Like...General Franco! And...G. Gordon Liddy and...Pinochet! and J. Edgar Hoover!...Nixon! Nixon, dude! Two terms, baby! Oh, and Westbrook Pegler, Palin's favorite political writer, who hoped that one day "some white patriot of the Southern tier will spatter [Robert F. Kennedy's] spoonful of brains in pubic premises before the snow flies."

Clearly, you all are on the right side of history!

____________________

player:

@Slinky:
Get an education before you talk. The only thing that the President can do with the Fed is to hire or fire the Chairman. The Fed gets its constitutional authority from Congress. It formulates and coordinates our nations monetary policies. It doesn't listen to the president. It controls how much money is allowed to circulate. It sells bonds and notes to pay our debts. It sets our interest rates, etc.

____________________

slinky:

Like I said, formal distinctions roughly equivalent to the formal relationship between this Pres. and the Supreme court.

Never mind who buys who lunch, which is the world I live in.

In the real world, Bernanke met with Treasury all weekend trying to figure out what to do with AIG.

For all I know, the white house was on the phone with them.

No way you can get away with the Fed. making an independent decision on this one.

____________________

player:

@Slinky:
That has nothing to do with anything. If the fed makes money available to AIG, they have to pay it back with interest. The Federal Reserve makes loans all the time to every bank in the country. Thats their job. It is to insure that our banks are solvent and that our financial institutions don't collapse.

____________________

Tybo:

connor, nice name calling.
Thanks for admitting defeat.

Oh, and I'me a progressive,
and no progressive would ever support obama.


(noted, connor doesn't care about equal pay , just obama)

____________________

slinky:

It's their job to lend money to insurance companies????

Hah.hah.hah.hah.hah.hah.hah

You Repugs are truly repugnant.

You say one thing, and then say another when it suits your needs.

You are hypocrites of the highest order!!!!!

____________________

Connor:

@Tybo

You're a progressive? Wow! Neat! Which candidate is Tybo supporting?!

Tell me about your progressive agenda, Tybo!

I'm all ears!

____________________

Tybo:

i'm still waiting for you to explain why you support obama

paying women in his employ less
voting for the "bankruptcy reform"
voting for the Patriot Act 2 (mccain/hRc did not)
voting for telecom immunity after promising a
filibuster

____________________

slinky:

Anything to avoid the real economic issues.

Anything.

Why don't you good republicans address issues 1-12 above?

Why not?

That's how we got into this mess.

Why not talk about it?

____________________

Connor:

@Tybo

Dude, I'm all for the progressive candidate, so please, tell me who the progressive candidate is!

Hurry up! Explain to me your progressive outlook/policy views! I'm serious dude! Please!

____________________

CentralTexas:

@HaloFan

1. My 68 year old mother-in-law still uses AOL, but mostly everyone else born since WWII has moved on. I suspect that impacts the poll results.

2. Don't let people tell you to go back to school - that's rude. (I don't think you've graduated yet, so it's also impossible)

UNRELATED - has any one seen a justification of the changes in the sample demographics for the Rasmussen poll? Their shift in methodology makes a big impact and I am surprised they have not had to explicitly explain it

____________________

Ulysses:

This debate is amusing. I have rarely seen online a more intense and banal "mass discussion with self" on any political website. There are about 10 people here -- on both sides of the fence -- who post. All of them seem to conduct a discussion based on shouting at those who just shouted at them for shouting at someone else. It's like the AA meeting from Hell.

Parenthetically, I am amazed by those on the right wing in these debates who seem to know nothing about their candidate. Amusingly, they seem unaware that the very medium they are using so deftly to champion McCain is something he knows literally zero about. See the link below. To me -- as an Independent -- it is one of the most glaring and scary examples of that bumper sticker I have seen occasionally: "The Republican Party: the Bridge to the 12th Century"...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48ipiTj2ymQ

____________________

Tybo:

also connor
Obama voting for The Cheney energy plan
(Mccain/hrc did not)

explain please..

____________________

Tybo:

also connor
Obama voting for The Cheney energy plan
(Mccain/hrc did not)

explain please..

____________________

Connor:

@Ulysses

Until today, I was like you. But then I saw all those fish flopping around in that barrel, and the gun resting up against it, and I thought "why, that looks like the easiest thing to do in the world! I'd be crazy not to do it!"

____________________

Tybo:

"Parenthetically, I am amazed by those on the right wing in these debates who seem to know nothing about their candidate."

you must mean connor and justin, and their candidate , the bush supporter, Obama.
they seem not to know anything about Obama, from the fact that he has 30% more money froom the failing institutions, to how he voted on legislation bush pushed (for it, mccain against it)that violates the constitution.

____________________

Connor:

Tybo's right, dudes: McCain is clearly the progressive candidate. Tybo reminds us all that Obama and Cheney are practically identical. Hell, Obama even admitted that Cheney is a distant cousin!

Cheney and Obama: The same on everything! Brilliant! Who WOULDN'T believe that?

____________________

Tybo:

"Until today, I was like you. But then I saw all those fish flopping around in that barrel, and the gun resting up against it, and I thought "why, that looks like the easiest thing to do in the world! I'd be crazy not to do it!"


you mean you saw yourself and your canidate reflected in the water, and shot your own image

..

____________________

zotz:

Tybo is a professional liar. He knows he can make up lies faster than we can swat them down. It is a classic diversion tactic. While we are busy dealing with his lies we are not talking about McCain's record on the economy or any relevant issue. It is classic Rovian strategy.

This is how Bush got elected.

____________________

Tybo:

good nightie connor

do work on explainations of Obama's anti-constitution and anti-working class votes.
I'll ask again

the topics
Fisa
telecom immunity
cheney's energy plans (remember the secret meetings)
equal pay for equal work(actual,not theory)
Patriot 2 (hint, it's not a movie)
bankruptcy reform

oh, and another one you probably miss.
his support of ROberts for the supreme court (before he was against him, after being told it wouldn't be considered good for the campaign)

ta

____________________

Tybo:

zotz..
i tell the truth

you need to check out obama's votes
he's Obush

____________________

Connor:

@Tybo

Now Tybo, don't go getting all David Lynch on us, even if I did see my "canidate" in the water!

But you never told me: what is the Tybo "progressive" agenda? Trickle-down economics? Overturning Roe v. Wade? Cutting corporate taxes? Privatizing social security? Selling off our country to China? Eradicating SCHIP?

Please, tell us about the "progressive" vision of Tybo, Tybo!

____________________

player:

In 2004,John Kerry used a phrase that he beat to death in the public conscious. He proclaimed that George Bush was going to take the place of Herbert Hoover as being the worst job creationist in our history. The jobs report data was in decline for months on end. However, right at the very end, the decline stopped short of Hoover's mark and we started going forward again. This made a liar out of Kerry. He didn't know what he was talking about. He also lost the election.

____________________

Connor:

Tybo is clearly a smart, attractive, successful person who is adored by many, particularly attractive women.

It's Tybo's world: we're just living in it! That's why his points sound like "absurd lies" or "patently ridiculous" or "disturbing and unsettling." We may THINK that Obama is far more progressive than McCain, but Tybo sets us straight!

Our foolish definitions of "progressive" mean nothing!

____________________

zotz:

Anybody that takes the time to google these issues knows that Tybo is a liar.

Bancruptcy- Obama voted AGAINST the 2005 bankruptcy law that hurt middle class Americans.

FISA- Obama compromised on the FISA bill defying his own party. His previous promise to filibuster was BEFORE the compromise was in the bill.

Energy- McCain repeatedly votes against renewable energy legislation and now wants to give hundreds of millions in extra tax cuts to the oil companies.

Patriot Act- Clinton, McCain, and Obama all voted for renewal of the Patriot Act. Obama fought to restore civil liberties guarantees to the bill. He got some but not all he wanted BECAUSE OF REPUBLICAN OPPOSITION.

I am not going to spend all night swatting down Tybo's lies but I will repeat TYBO IS A LIAR!

Don't listen to him.

____________________

Paul:

RE: Daily Kos internals. Analysis by gender, age, and region compared to 2004 exit polls show that Obama would be +4, +2 and +5 respectively, as this poll's demographics are biased towards Obama for age and towards McCain for region (very close on gender - slight bias towards McCain).

In sum, this poll showing Obama +4 overall appears consistent with reasonable expectations for likely voters based on 2008 exit polls.

____________________

Paul:

RE: Daily Kos internals. Analysis by gender, age, and region compared to 2004 exit polls show that Obama would be +4, +2 and +5 respectively, as this poll's demographics are biased towards Obama for age and towards McCain for region (very close on gender - slight bias towards McCain).

In sum, this poll showing Obama +4 overall appears consistent with reasonable expectations for likely voters based on 2004 exit polls.

____________________

player:

Daily Kos analysis? Please give it a rest. Of all references to have. Geeez.

____________________

slinky:

@player

You are a complete ignoramus.

Here is the report: Treasury (a US Gov't agency, controlled by Secretary, and President Bush) acting in concert with the Fed. have aquired an 80% Equity stake in AIG, a heretofore private insurance company that is "too big to be allowed to fail".

Hence, Republicans have saved a private company using public funds.

So much for LIBERTARIAN rules of behavior of governments; or is it LIBERTINE rules of behavior (read the Marquis de Sade)?

Here's proof. So much for player. (he'll come up with some stupid excuses or other obfuscation, watch him, Republicans never admit fault nor that they have violated their principles):

"The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday, with the full support of the Treasury Department, authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to lend up to $85 billion to the American International Group (AIG) under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. The secured loan has terms and conditions designed to protect the interests of the U.S. government and taxpayers.

The Board determined that, in current circumstances, a disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth and materially weaker economic performance.

The purpose of this liquidity facility is to assist AIG in meeting its obligations as they come due. This loan will facilitate a process under which AIG will sell certain of its businesses in an orderly manner, with the least possible disruption to the overall economy.

The AIG facility has a 24-month term. Interest will accrue on the outstanding balance at a rate of three-month Libor plus 850 basis points. AIG will be permitted to draw up to $85 billion under the facility.

The interests of taxpayers are protected by key terms of the loan. The loan is collateralized by all the assets of AIG, and of its primary non-regulated subsidiaries. These assets include the stock of substantially all of the regulated subsidiaries. The loan is expected to be repaid from the proceeds of the sale of the firm’s assets. The U.S. government will receive a 79.9 percent equity interest in AIG and has the right to veto the payment of dividends to common and preferred shareholders."

posted on the Fed website. Links from the NYTimes.

____________________

slinky:

Whaddya think they'll do about WaMu, player?

hah.hah.hah.hah.hah.hah.hah.

____________________

zen:


So, Americans are not so stupid.
Finally they come back to their senses.
With this economy shock, all the American idol syndrome for Sarah becomes pale.
I hope, from now on, both sides argue about issues instead of character, gender card, sexism which are distractions for the election.


____________________

player:

@Slinky:
And what is your point dummy? You sure shouldn't be calling anyone names. Your stupidity is unprecedented. That is called collateral. When the fed makes funds available to financial institutions, they do so by holding promissory notes and the likes. They just don't shell out the money. In this matter, they have a say in how AIG restructures and operates.

____________________

vandrop:

Player

Also, you should take note that the poll was conducted BY RESEARCH 2000. Maybe you're blind in your right eye, but the poll was done for DailyKos, by Research 2000. It's right up there. If the poll were conducted BY DailyKos, then yes, the poll would not be very credible.

Research 2000 has a perfectly credible accuracy. According to Nate over at fivethirtyeight, it's right up there.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

____________________

slinky:

Money Market Funds may go belly up.

Real people may lose real money.

This is the most serious financial catastrophe since the Great Depression:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/17/business/17fund.html

____________________

slinky:

Oh, and Player will explain that I don't understand the Fed. or the markets.

Hah.hah.hah.hah.hah.hah.hah.

____________________

slinky:

These are not promissary notes, player. This is common stock. They wiped out the value of the Company. The government now owns it.

____________________

slinky:

It's your understand that is appalling, player:

"The U.S. government will receive a 79.9 percent equity interest in AIG "

____________________

player:

@Slinky:
Obama will be gone from public view soon enough and you can crawl back into your cave if it is still there. Give Osama a kiss when you get there.

____________________

slinky:

Socialist, isn't it?

____________________

slinky:

That's what I said about Republicans. They will never admit they are wrong. Never mind how expert the refutation, nor how badly they have lost the debate.

[and make no mistake, @player lost this debate].

They always claim omniscience or at least privileged knowledge [player even claims privileged knowledge of the election outcome] to prove that they are right, and the rest of us (ignoramuses, which they will never say, because they are so polite) are wrong.

But, they are assholes of the highest order.

They complain about being insulted in order to foist guilt and blame; and they obfuscate endlessly -- never, ever telling the truth.

Read Cohen's piece in the Times today, player.

You will be reading about your own lies; and those of the campaign you favor.

____________________

change:

How long can MCsame keep a lid on: over 100 lobbyist plus in his campaign, supported the worst president in history 90% of the time, has put a beauty pagent winner from alaska a heartbeat away from the presidency(with zero foreign policy experience while he runs on experience), wants to outlaw choice for women, still would vote for the iraq war, flip flopped on torture to get his party's nomination,= how much longer will the retarded american people put up with this?

____________________

SuperCruncher:


Gang

I know Greg's type.

Never served in the military. Doesn't actually go to church. Has a Star-Wars-like understanding of the economy. He has just graduated college and is still wearing his fraternity's
baseball hat to job interviews. HIs dad is fairly successful, but still well under Obamas tax increase. And his father did not spend very much time with him.

Sometimes he is tempted to go back to the old frat house and talk about the old days.

Also he treats his mother like she is only there to make sandwiches for him.

Did I miss anything greg?

____________________

Robi:

This isn't mine but I like it a lot:

I'm a little confused. Let me see if I have this straight.....

* If you grow up in Hawaii, raised by your grandparents, you're 'exotic, different.'
* Grow up in Alaska eating mooseburgers, a quintessential American story.

* If your name is Barack you're a radical, unpatriotic Muslim.
* Name your kids Willow, Trig and Track, you're a maverick.

* Graduate from Harvard law School and you are unstable.
* Attend 5 different small colleges before graduating, you're well grounded.

* If you spend 3 years as a brilliant community organizer, become the first black President of the Harvard Law Review, create a voter registration drive that registers 150,000 new voters, spend 12 years as a Constitutional Law professor, spend 8 years as a State Senator representing a district with over 750,000 people, become chairman of the state Senate's Health and Human Services committee, spend 4 years in the United States Senate representing a state of 13 million people while sponsoring 131 bills and serving on the Foreign Affairs, Environment and Public Works and Veteran's Affairs committees, you don't have any real leadership experience.
* If your total resume is: local weather girl, 4 years on the city council and 6 years as the mayor of a town with less than 7,000 people, 20 months as the governor of a state with only 650,000 people, then you're qualified to become the country's second highest ranking executive.

* If you have been married to the same woman for 19 years while raising 2 beautiful daughters, all within Protestant churches, you're not a real Christian.
* If you cheated on your first wife with a rich heiress, and left your disfigured wife and married the heiress the next month, you're a Christian.

* If you teach responsible, age appropriate sex education, including the proper use of birth control, you are eroding the fiber of society.
* If , while governor, you staunchly advocate abstinence only, with no other option in sex education in your state's school system while your unwed teen daughter ends up pregnant , you're very responsible.

* If your wife is a Harvard graduate laywer who gave up a position in a prestigious law firm to work for the betterment of her inner city community, then gave that up to raise a family, your family's values don't represent America's.
* If you're husband is nicknamed 'First Dude', with at least one DWI conviction and no college education, who didn't register to vote until age 25 and once was a member of a group that advocated the secession of Alaska from the USA, your family is extremely admirable.


OK, much clearer now.


But I must admit that I thought McCain showed the first signs of Alzheimer's Disease when he chose Sarah as his running mate. Now I think the entire country may be exhibiting those same symptoms when they think Sarah is a good choice as the VP nominee.

____________________

slinky:

Greg is at a disadvantage because he lives in Charlotte, NC. Charlotte is still not an accepting place for minorities. You can learn alot about Charlotte by reading about the life of Harry Golden. Start from about the 3rd or 4th paragraph. There's alot to know:

http://www.answers.com/topic/harry-golden

____________________

slinky:

Don't remind them, Robi, they're getting over it.

____________________

Bigmike:

Robi

At last you get it! At least everything above OK.

____________________

slinky:

If you give them an inch, Robi, they will take a mile and try to deflect from the very serious issues at hand.

Obama will make a better President than his opposition in an instant.

____________________

Bigmike:

OK, that was just a little tongue in cheek.

But so much of Robi so elequently stated is immaterial I don't know where to start.

Personally, I prefer a Pres who believes in God, but I really don't care what church the Pres goes to. Just my opinion and no one has to agree.

Grew up in Hawaii vs grew up in Alaska. Who cares? What's a few degrees among friends?

I don't want to repeat the sex ed argument from a day or two ago, but I would be happier if my 5 year old never heard the word sex. I know, head in the sand, etc. Moot point. My "baby" turned 19 today.

Doesn't matter to me who someone slept with, long as it's not my wife. On that front they all pale in comparison to "I Get Around" Bill.

"Brilliant community organizer." Now what the hell is that? A social worker who showed up on the job every day?

What someone named their kids matters?

____________________

slinky:

(1) Obama believes in god.

(2) Most kids know what sex is. My girls used to play with themselves all the time when they were 3 and 4. We called it 'private play' and asked them to do it in their rooms, or otherwise innocuously. Most families start teaching sex something like that. I lived in a Catholic neighborhood growing up, I have a good memory, and I remember my friends sister, when she was 4, getting the same song and dance from her Catholic mother. (I was about 8). Obama proposed a bill that would help schools talk about it. There was an opt out provision, for prudish parents like you.
(3) Community organizers are usually beginning politicians who are trying to spend their life helping people. It is a tradition in many minority communities to go back and serve. Obama was attracted to one of the poorest communities in the US that had lost jobs. He was one of the best educated blacks in the US at the time, and he was in a remarkable minority.
(3a) I will not tell you what I do, but I have already revealed to this site that I am 54 and am an important person. I had a student who was Jamaican who, similar to Obama, spent time at Harvard, which I arranged, and obtained some very high credentials. Rather than choosing a high path in life, my African American student married a nurse and took a position serving an African American community in the south. My student is NOT running for political office: But, if he applied for a position running a company or non-profit, don't you think I would endorse him?

Anyhow I have tried to be nice to you; but I am suspect.

I wonder whether you have managed personal introspection. Whether, in a dark room, alone, with no one there, you have asked yourself whether you are a racist.

I have taken that test myself.

And, at times, I have failed.

____________________

change:

any predictions for gallup and rasmussen tommorrow guys?

____________________

Bigmike:

Now slinky, no need to get personal.

I just can't get a grip on how being a community organizer qualifies one to be Pres. Being a medium to small town kind of guy, it is a foreign concept. Community organizer? What for? Ours is pretty well organized to start with. The numbered streets go N-S and the named streets go E-W. Works out really well that way, if I do say so myself.

And you missed my point all together. What does any of that have to do with someone being qualified to be Pres.? I did not say Obama does not believe in God. I said I could care less what church he goes to.

And I think I have been pretty nice too. But when you suggest I am a racist because I don't share your views, you are just being a butt head,

Glad you are so important. I'm damn happy for you.

____________________

slinky:

Obama is a United States Senator from one of the largest, most important states in the country.

Before that, he was a State Senator in that State for several terms.

Before that, he was a Lecturer at the University of Chicago school of law; one of the best law schools in the country; on Constitutional law.

Before that, he was not only a graduate of Harvard Law School, but he was Editor-in-Chief of the Harvard Law Review.

I don't know what the hell you've done in your life, but I am 54, and I would be proud to have that resume.

Maybe you just don't know enough to know how impressive those achievements (and all the bills passed) are.

And, all humans are racist. It is our natural tendency. The fact that you aren't self aware enough to have fought your own racism proves my suspicions.

Thanks,

____________________

Bigmike:

See, you got me ticked off. I just re-read your post and it really makes me wonder.

"Rather than choosing a high path in life, my African American student married a nurse and took a position serving an African American community in the south."

Serving others is not a high path in life? May not make your student rich, but it is a worthwhile thing to do. You sure you're a Lib? Sounds like you are saying that unless someone makes lots of money they don't amount to much as a person. Shame on you.

And I never said the big O had not accomplished anything. I do think you guys are a little overboard with that number of bills passed thing. I know all it takes to be a sponsor of a bill is to say "Yeah, put my name on it." Has he actually authored any, or is he just along for the ride?

I never addressed how I have come to grips with my own demons. You assume too much, sir.

____________________

Robi:

Bigmike:

The previous post that I had was the fact that there appears to be a double-standard when credentials are compared.

All the comments about McCain or Palin is that their lives are not as suspect as Obama's. The post I made was to show how hypocritical the Reps are when talking about Obama.

____________________

Bigmike:

Robi

I read what you said. I know exactly what you were saying. Hell, I even agree with the point you were making. Although in my mind, both sides are hypocritical.

Then MrImpotentPersonSlinky (MIPS) jumped me. If I may paraphrase MIPS:

That's what I said about Dems. They will never admit they are wrong. Never mind how expert the refutation, nor how badly they have lost the debate.

[and make no mistake, MIPS lost this debate].

____________________

Snowspinner:

change - I'll predict that either Gallup or Rasmussen will show an Obama lead.

____________________

Robi:

BigMike:

Well I'll let slinky defend himself but I will admit hypocrisy of either campaign but I will correct errors or eager misunderstandings that people want to have about the Obama campaign. I don't think a lot of people on the right or left will admit that they're wrong because they're afraid that it'll show weakness or something along those lines. I have made my decision and I am voting for Obama. I like McCain a lot in 2000 and I can't vote for him when his policies have changed to the far right and his VP is as crazy and uninformed about the national economy and foreign policy (especially because I'm a senior IR major focusing on US foreign policy).

____________________

slinky:

Washington Post now explains McCain's Economic History:

McCain Embraces Regulation After Many Years of Opposition
By Michael D. Shear
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, September 17, 2008; Page A01

A decade ago, Sen. John McCain embraced legislation to broadly deregulate the banking and insurance industries, helping to sweep aside a thicket of rules established over decades in favor of a less restricted financial marketplace that proponents said would result in greater economic growth.

Now, as the Bush administration scrambles to prevent the collapse of the American International Group (AIG), the nation's largest insurance company, and stabilize a tumultuous Wall Street, the Republican presidential nominee is scrambling to recast himself as a champion of regulation to end "reckless conduct, corruption and unbridled greed" on Wall Street.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/16/AR2008091603732_pf.html

____________________

Bigmike:

See guys. Robi knows how to say what he has to say without being insulting to those who disagree. Some of you folks could learn something here.

Hey, I got to "shame on you" and "butthead" someone who is really important. Sure was fun.

Snowspinner-

I have said before McCain's bounce is doing a slow fade. It still is. But I would not go more than tied tomorrow. Neither side had a particularly good news cycle, unless I missed something. And I had a busy evening, so I may have well missed something.

It has to be worrisome to the Obama camp the way some of the states are moving. When McCain got his bounce (and I am not calling it a big bounce), at first it didn't look like much more than firming support in dark red states. Bottom line, it didn't do a lot for him in EV's. But now that things are closer in the national PV beauty pagent, the EV's are moving slightly in McCains direction. Do state polls tend to lag the national trend, or is there even a correlation there?

Dems have to be especially worried about PA. That is a big chunk of EV's, and they probably can't win without it.

____________________

Basil:

OK, here's more Barack-loving crap from another overeducated Obamaton:

Being President IS being a community organizer. It's one of the biggest community organizer positions in the world.

When Dubya claimed to be a uniter, he was lamely fantasizing about being a community organizer. When he blathered about a coalition of the willing, he was trying to take credit for organizing a nonexistent community. When he said he wanted to leave no child behind, it was the community of the educated into which the children were to be included--a community which R's neither represent nor understand, and routinely despise.

We need more community organizers and fewer community dividers if we are to survive. John McCain can't even organize his own campaign, much less the American public (and don't even mention "global community" unless you're talking about corporate advantage). Witness the sparsely attended rallies he speaks at when his celebrity veep is'nt there, and the fact that he has to push Obama down to raise himself up. That's all he can do because he loses on the issues, and his own strategists admit it.

There isn't a community of cynics. It's against their nature.

____________________

Robi:

I just wanted to throw in a little humor:

Who else saw McCain's adviser say that McCain invented the blackberry?

____________________

Bigmike:

Saw this on CNN.com.

"Lynn Forester de Rothschild, a prominent Hillary Clinton supporter and member of the Democratic National Committee’s Platform Committee, will endorse John McCain for president on Wednesday, her spokesman tells CNN."

wow, a member of the DNC Platform Committee. Nothing like a knife in the back from family.

I was looking for the blackberry thing when I came across that. I saw it somewhere, but I don't remember where.

____________________

Robi:

Nothing like a bitter Clinton supporter to destroy the democratic party.

Someone get her on a show and ask her about her political views please. I am still stunned by Clinton supporters who do this foolishness. So petty over something so important.

____________________

Robi:

Can you send me a link to the story? I can't find it.

____________________

Bigmike:

Ever so slowly, it is slipping away from the Dems. And this may be their last, best hope. After the next census, there will be more EV's in red states than there are today.

I used the "last, best hope" phrase on purpose. Anyone else notice Obama used "last, best hope for mankind" in his acceptance speech. I almost fell out of my chair, since he didn't credit Ronald Reagan. Plagarism at both ends of the dem ticket!

____________________

Bigmike:
____________________

Robi:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/16/mccain.blackberry/

This is the blackberry story.

Bigmike:

The Reagan term is most definitely used so people think about Reagan so those "Reagan democrats" use some word association. Do you truly think that Obama was hoping that nobody would realize that? On one of the most watched nights Obama was trying to pass one on 38 million people as well as the press? The campaign that beat Hillary Clinton was going to try a stunt like that when there's nothing but bad publicity that could end a political career? Let's be realistic about it.

____________________

Bigmike:

OK, you got me. I was a over the top on that. It did amaze me to hear RR quoted at a DNC convention. FDR, JFK, sure. RR? I did honestly almost fall out of my chair.

I know, I know. It shows what a great unifier BO is?

NOT

Have a good evening. Tomorrow will bring more polls to think about.

____________________

brambster:

@Bigmike

You don't "think", you just spout. Save your worthless commentary for another site.

____________________

slinky:

Earth to Robi,

BigMike is not your ideological ally.

He is not even very approachable.

He makes numerous efforts to distance himself from you (as well as me), and he sticks to his convictions about abortion, sex ed., Obama's lack of experience, and incapacity to do the job, with great tenacity.

You will not convert him,

He is not your friend.

He is here to divert the conversation from

anything sensible, tangible, and meaningful,

to something that is filled with vicissitudes

and niceness.

You are a senior?

Well, you're acting like a sophomore.

Wooster is a good place. Work harder.

Get to Boston.

____________________

slinky:

McCain will try to convince us he became a financial genius in the next few days.

Don't believe it. He's not. He married, in part, for money. And, he didn't do well by his first wife.

Let's call it a character flaw. But, I hear the Reagans wanted nothing to do with him after the divorce.

Oh, yeah, personal stuff has nothing to do with the Campaigns.

Or does it?

____________________

Robi:

slinky:

I get to engage him and others in my own way. Lay off. You sound like a fanatic if you think no one can be engaged with. If he's a hack like stillow, then I will make that judgment eventually. Insulting me won't get you anywhere you far left unthinking liberal (see what I did there?)

____________________

Bigmike:

I don't remember saying a word about abortion.

What is sensible to you and sensible to me are two different things. Doesn't make you bad, doesn't make me bad. You blame Rep's for the economy, especially Bush. I blame Clinton and his crew for forcing mortgage lendors to make loans to people who in saner times would not qualify. In the name of equal opportunity for all. And both arguments have some merit.

Not a lawyer, poli sci major, or policy wonk. Just a regular guy. Too bad for your side lawyers and policy wonks make up a whopping couple of percent of the electorate. Yes sir, I am pretty good at math. Did I mention I was Pres of the local chapter of Tau Beta Pi in college? Thats the honor society for Engineers that is equivalent to Phi Beta Kappa for liberal arts types. Oh yes, I can do me some math boys.

____________________

Robi:

I think the country would be better if everyone was educated on foreign policy so I do think it's too bad...I don't know why that should be sarcastic. Knowing how the real world works on an international scale is important.

____________________

Bigmike:

Robi

My one and only source for foreigh policy is The Prince by Machiavelli. Don't think that is still relevant? Then why did a Rothschild stick it to Obama? The Clintons obviously want to set Hillary up for 2012. What kind of chance did Obama ever have?

I probably agree with you 5-10% of the time. Education, education, education. It ought to be govt's highest priority, right after keeping us safe.

As one who spent a hitch wearing olive drab, I admit it is hard for me to not vote for a vet if the choice is available. McCain's most redeeming quality, in my mind. And he did not come home and back stab his brothers, a la Kerry. If you served, you will get that. You have each others back, always.

Slinky nailed me on one thing. Obama has a heck of a resume, if you are looking for a college professor. Too bad I am looking for a President.

____________________

Robi:

The prince doesn't really apply to that but I see how you think it would.

The democratic party loves to screw themselves over and this woman needs her head examined. I just want to know what policies she agrees with McCain. Probably none and this is a stunt to set up Hillary. It's just sad that the fate of the country would be risked based on spite.

____________________

Bigmike:

A lot of things are sad. This isn't. This is just politics. It is not as important as family or friends. Whoever wins, the world will keep turning.

Catch you next time. And I really mean it this time, LOL.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

player said...
"@Slinky:
Get an education before you talk."

Fair enough, if the one telling another to get an education has his/her/its facts straight.

But player does not, as he/she/it goes on to say, "[The Fed] sells bonds and notes to pay our debts. It sets our interest rates, etc."

For your information, player, the Fed is not part of the Department of the Treasury, which is the agency of the Federal Government that auctions off bonds and notes to finance the public debt.

As to the Fed setting interest rates? The only interest rate the Fed sets is the interest rate charged to commercial banks and other depository institutions on loans they receive from their regional Federal Reserve Bank's lending facility--the discount window. The banks or other lending institutions set their own rates, depending on factors that are important to them, such as how much money do they have to lend, demand for money, how much their competitors are charging, what areas of the economy do they want to lend to, etc., etc. The only effect that the Federal Reserve Board rate has on this determination is how much will the cost of money be if the bank needs to go to the discount window to maintain the cash reserve required by regulations.

So, player, the person who needs an education before they talk, especially when it comes to the Federal Reserve Board, is you.

In conclusion, player, maybe you should follow the advice that some attribute to Samuel Clemons (aka Mark Twain), "It is better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than to open it and remove all doubt."

____________________

boomshak:

Well, so much for TROOPERGATE:

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/16/alaska-ag-says-no-to-subpoenas/

"JUNEAU, Alaska — Alaska’s attorney general says state employees subpoenaed in the investigation of Gov. Sarah Palin will not testify.

In a letter to the Democratic state senator overseeing the investigation, Attorney General Talis Colberg asks that the subpoenas be withdrawn. He also says the employees will not appear before the investigator unless either the full state Senate or the entire Alaska Legislature votes to compel their testimony.

Last week, a committee of lawmakers issued subpoenas for 13 people, including Todd Palin, the governor’s husband, in the investigation of whether the governor fired her public safety chief for refusing to dismiss her former brother-in-law, an Alaska State Trooper.

All those summoned are state employees, except Todd Palin."

That's what happens when you have Obama Supporters running an illegal investigation. I would not be surprised if this doesn't come back to bite Obama when we learn just how involved his campaign was in this investigation.

____________________

boomshak:

Lol, it will be fun to watch the MSM blow a blood vessel today as they see Troopergate slip through their fingers.

I am sure the headlines will read "Palin Ally Blocks Legal Investigation!" or some other such bullox like that.

____________________

Louis1981:

In the November 2006 elections Michigan voters re-elected, by a 60-40 margin, a liberal Democrat governor, Jennifer Granholm, and a liberal Democrat senator, Debby Stabenow. Michigan voters also had the opportunity to vote on Proposition 2, a ballot initiative whose passage and enactment would prohibit affirmative action programs in all state funded institutions, e.g., Michigan State University and the University of Michigan.
Two days before the election the final pre-election Detroit Free Press poll revealed that only 40% of the individuals polled supported Proposition 2. Prop 2 was headed for a major defeat, according to the polls. Proposition 2, however, carried on election day by an 60-40 margin. So, by passing Proposition 2, a state that overwhelmingly re-elected two very liberal Democratic candidates also overwhelmingly passed a very conservative ballot initiative .
Barack Obama will lose on election day, by a margin of at least 55-45 in the popular vote. He will lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, and Virginia. Obama's defeat will effect Democratic Party politics in new and disturbing ways. This is not just another Democratic bungling of a presidential election, i.e., Kerry, Gore, Mondale, etc. People are passionate about Obama in ways that go beyond the normal "vote for my candidate so my interests will continue to feed at the trough of public graft." No, too many people see Obama for something he is not, and that is truly dangerous.

____________________

boomshak:

It really is hard to get any traction on some of the suspect things Obama is doing (undermining Bush in Iraq on troop withdrawals, which is ILLEGAL by the way) when the MSM refuses to cover it.

Look at how many stories ran about THAT the last two days and look at how many stories ran about Sarah Palin's tanning bed.

I rest my case.

____________________

thoughtful:

Good Morning

In polling terms yesterday was a big day for Obama.

The McCain/Palin bubble has burst, the polls are back to just about where they were before both conventions, the BIG MO that the GOP was hoping for, has been stopped in its tracks by an economy which is far from healthy and lack of credibility.

Convention bounces don't live for too long, enough voters are now asking questions about Palin's credentials, McCain has been called out as a liar, so whilst the Republican base is solid and energised, the task of persuading Independents and conservative Democrats to support the ticket has become very much more difficult. Voters appear to need positives this time round.

McCain at 72 and Palin's lack of significant credentials is even more of an issue than Obama being black and relatively inexperienced.

John McCain is a former Chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee and as a candidate who candidly admitted just a few months ago he doesn't know much about the economy, John McCain is in deep trouble.

The market that he helped to deregulate has all but collapsed. He is now advocating some kind of regulatory reform for Wall Street, McCain has a record other than as a POW.

So the trackers will continue to trend towards Obama, even the Rasmussen newly ID weighted adjusted one! The PPP Virginia is out today as well as a number of interesting state polls including New Mexico, Montana, West Virginia all showing Obama leading in the EV race.

The Cover Up is ongoing on Troopergate and will probably cost McCain/Palin more than A Palin Confession in terms of votes.

You know, voters can see an agressive and spiteful person in Palin on the stump. So the report of her vindictiveness sticks.

You know Obama has got near 60% favorability ratings, after all, if you go after him, go after him on the issues not for being a Comminuity Organizer when he left School 20 years ago!

Palin has broken the VEEP "do no harm" principle and in this dire economic mess Romney would have appeared authorative, reassuring and credible - and essentially a much more qualified Vice Presidential candidate than Palin. McCain's troubles are just beginning.

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

"In polling terms yesterday was a big day for Obama."

Dude, I don't think I have ever encountered anyone else in my life that doesn't get it like you don't get it.

Barack Obama is STUCK at 46-47%. The internals of all these polls are a DISASTER for Obama.

____________________

boomshak:

The Democrat Primary proved one thing as Obama lost pretty much everywhere by large double digits down the stretch:

AS THE FINISH LINE APPROACHES, VOTERS MOVE FROM STYLE TO SUBSTANCE. THE MORE UNCERTAIN THE TIMES WE LIVE IN, THE MORE THIS IS TRUE.

Obama is all style. Unless he is ahead by at least 5 point a week before the election, he loses.

____________________

Tybo:

zolzsaid


"Obama compromised on the FISA bill defying his own party. His previous promise to filibuster was BEFORE the compromise was in the bill."

..... LIar , obama stated he'd filibuster any bill that included immunity for the telecoms.
he voted for it

" Obama all voted for renewal of the Patriot Act. Obama fought to restore civil liberties guarantees to the bill. He got some but not all he wanted BECAUSE OF REPUBLICAN OPPOSITION."

Obama voted for it, he introduced NO admendments to the bill.

Cheney's energy bill...
Obama voted for it, McCain and Clinton voted AGainst it!

It was Biden who supported the bankruptcy bill, not Obama. My mistake.

It's Obama who pays women in his employ 85 cents on the dollar .McCain pays female employes 100 cents on the dollar.

Obama supported John Roberts for the supreme court before being informed that a pro-ROberts vote would hurt his campaign.


Zotz doesn't know his candidate..
O'bush

____________________

thoughtful:

Boom

You haven't seen the internals from yesterday's polling!

The Dam is about to burst!

This Lie that you are spreading on Iraq is just going to get the GOP into even bigger trouble.

There is absolutely contemporaneous evidence of what the 2 leaders spoke about in Iraq and it was a fixed time table with our troops out by 2010 agreed to by both leaders providing conditions were right on the ground.

The fact is the new agreement extending a US presence should have been in place in June!

Go ahead and discredit the GOP some more with proffering up more lies.

____________________

Tybo:

thoughtful, if obama was making foreign policy deals, he belongs in prison.

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful,

"There is absolutely contemporaneous evidence of what the 2 leaders spoke about in Iraq and it was a fixed time table with our troops out by 2010 agreed to by both leaders providing conditions were right on the ground."

You just said it yourself. If, in fact, Obama did what you just claimed, he broke US law.

____________________

boomshak:

OBAMA VIOLATES LOGAN ACT:

"WHILE campaigning in public for a speedy withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, Sen. Barack Obama has tried in private to persuade Iraqi leaders to delay an agreement on a draw-down of the American military presence.

According to Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, Obama made his demand for delay a key theme of his discussions with Iraqi leaders in Baghdad in July.

"He asked why we were not prepared to delay an agreement until after the US elections and the formation of a new administration in Washington," Zebari said in an interview.

Obama insisted that Congress should be involved in negotiations on the status of US troops - and that it was in the interests of both sides not to have an agreement negotiated by the Bush administration in its "state of weakness and political confusion."

"However, as an Iraqi, I prefer to have a security agreement that regulates the activities of foreign troops, rather than keeping the matter open." Zebari says.

Though Obama claims the US presence is "illegal," he suddenly remembered that Americans troops were in Iraq within the legal framework of a UN mandate. His advice was that, rather than reach an accord with the "weakened Bush administration," Iraq should seek an extension of the UN mandate.

While in Iraq, Obama also tried to persuade the US commanders, including Gen. David Petraeus, to suggest a "realistic withdrawal date." They declined."

____________________

boomshak:

SO WHAT IS THE LOGAN ACT:

"The Logan Act is a United States federal law that forbids unauthorized citizens from negotiating with foreign governments. It was passed in 1799 and last amended in 1994. Violation of the Logan Act is a felony, punishable under federal law with imprisonment of up to three years."

@thoughtful:

Please tell me how, according to yuor own words, Obama did NOT violate this?

____________________

boomshak:

MORE ON LOGAN ACT:

§ 953. Private correspondence with foreign governments.

"Any citizen of the United States, wherever he may be, who, without authority of the United States, directly or indirectly commences or carries on any correspondence or intercourse with any foreign government or any officer or agent thereof, with intent to influence the measures or conduct of any foreign government or of any officer or agent thereof, in relation to any disputes or controversies with the United States, or to defeat the measures of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.

This section shall not abridge the right of a citizen to apply himself, or his agent, to any foreign government, or the agents thereof, for redress of any injury which he may have sustained from such government or any of its agents or subjects."

Again thoughtful, according to your own words, explain to me how Obama did not violate this act?

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boom

You GOP guys are clutching at straws should we throw McCain in jail for what he said in Israel.

It was a congressional visit; different ideas were obviously discussed including Obama's well known positions.

Indeed Obama's position on how he differs from Bush and McCain is that Iraq with their budget surplus at heading towards $100 billion should be picking up the tab.

____________________

thoughtful:

These repubs don't change: if they can't win or steal an election they'll clutch at anything to destabalize.

Now they are behind in the polls they will clutch at anything. Be careful what you wish for.

Same guys who tried to impeach Bill Clinton. I think they should be thrown in jail for treason.

The American people aren't buying more of the same.

____________________

thoughtful:

It looks like a no change day in the trackers today, though one suspects maybe a tie on Gallup, and maybe another slight move to Obama on the Diageo/Hotline.

48% McCain 47% Obama on the newly weighted Rasmussen Poll which last week would have read 48% Obama and 46% McCain and prior to the conventions 49% O to 45% McCain which is virtually the same as R 2000/Kos 48/44.

Rasmussen polls on Wisconson and Oregon out to day as well as Virginia (PPP) and a string of other States MT, NM, WV should be a very interestng day!

____________________

vmval1:

Morning everyone. We all enjoying our fundamentally sound economy today?

____________________

zotz:

vmval1-
McCain was referring to the American worker.
Why do you hate America, you elitist?!!!

____________________

thoughtful:

Morning VMVAL1

Well apart from AIG the Biggest insurer, the biggest mortgagers Fannie and Freddie, 3 out of the 5 largest investment banks going bust or being rescued.
Unemployment is at a 6 year high and the average American with $2,000.00 less to spend on average on 7 years ago, the economy is fundametally sound according to former Senate Commerce Committee Chairman John S McCain (R).

This is a global crisis started in the US. The UK's 3rd largest Bank HBOS is going to be taken over/merged with the 4th largest bank Lloyds. HBOS is the biggest mortgage bank in the UK. hbos's shares collapse today to 0.80 this morning they were over 3.00 on Friday!

____________________

Tybo:

"May 25, 2006

Sen. John McCain [R-AZ]: Mr. President, this week Fannie Mae's regulator reported that the company's quarterly reports of profit growth over the past few years were "illusions deliberately and systematically created" by the company's senior management, which resulted in a $10.6 billion accounting scandal.


http://www.govtrack.us/congress/record.xpd?id=109-s20060525-16&bill=s109-190#sMonofilemx003Ammx002Fmmx002Fmmx002Fmhomemx002Fmgovtrackmx002Fmdatamx002Fmusmx002Fm109mx002Fmcrmx002Fms20060525-16.xmlElementm0m0m0m

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's report goes on to say that Fannie Mae employees deliberately and intentionally manipulated financial reports to hit earnings targets in order to trigger bonuses for senior executives. In the case of Franklin Raines, Fannie Mae's former chief executive officer, OFHEO's report shows that over half of Mr. Raines' compensation for the 6 years through 2003 was directly tied to meeting earnings targets. The report of financial misconduct at Fannie Mae echoes the deeply troubling $5 billion profit restatement at Freddie Mac.

I join as a cosponsor of the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S. 190, to underscore my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole.

I urge my colleagues to support swift action on this GSE reform legislation

____________________

vmval1:

zotz:

Ease up on the rhetoric tiger.

I don't care what McCain was referring to - he should not have said under any circumstances that the economy is fundamentally sound. The American worker is struggling most other workers around the world, and they are NOT living in a fundamentally sound economy.

Also, the context in which I am using McCain's quote is infinitely more accurate than 'lipstick on a pig' was used by all the one eyed McCain supporters.

____________________

atreides:

@zotz

You're being sarcastic aren't you? Tell me you didn't buy the spin? If you bought the McCain campaign spin, we're in more trouble than I thought. Tell me it aint't so.

For the hundredth time, has anybody figured out the what % Rasmussen eliminates of AA's and youngsters? Not only has he stacked the deck with the party spread adjustment but if he still eliminating more AA's then that's just wrong. They are massing at border. They can't wait till Nov. 4. Mothers are browbeating children. No way they don't turn out in mass and beat the historic 60% of RV.

____________________

vmval1:

On a serious note, I don't understand how nobody has gone to jail for any of the financial collapses we've seen in the last 18 months.

____________________

mirrorball:

@Boomshack: You do know that the Troopergate was authorized by the state legislature, and while headed by a Democrat (who was totally stupid to say there would be an "October surprise"), the judiciary panel that authorized the subpoenas has a Republican majority.

____________________

vmval1:

@zotz:

sorry, just realised that you probably were being sarcastic. Not familiar with everyone here yet.

____________________

mirrorball:

sorry for the typo. Should say "the Troopergate investigation was authorized ..."

____________________

vmval1:

@Boom:
InTrade is great for people like me. (borderline OCD)

I've started using it to fill in th egaps between polls as well as to fill all the other voids in my life. :)

____________________

atreides:

The problem that bought all these investment houses down was the derivative risk that was created when mortgages got securitized. I doubt that the actual amount of bad loans was enough to do it. The derivatives multiplied the bad loans losses by at least a 100 fold if not more. Does anybody have a number on the actual amount of bad loans? What's even more incredible, is that McCain is running away from a situation that he helped create. Is anybody going to make him answer for the Gramm legislation and his posture as a "Deregulator".
This is the single worst problem we face now and he was front and center part of the creation of it. Are the American people this stupid or is Obama's race that important?

____________________

thoughtful:

It would appear from what Tybo is posting is that John McCain knew what was going on but was ineffective in doing anything about it.

So much for providing Leadership and reaching cross the aisle!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wow 7 point swing in today's Reuters/Zogby poll. Obama now up 2. We will see if the state polls follow all this activity next week. Could be interesting! How dumb could McCain look yesterday? My God America.

____________________

Tybo:

"It would appear from what Tybo is posting is that John McCain knew what was going on but was ineffective in doing anything about it.

So much for providing Leadership and reaching cross the aisle!"


as compared to Obama, who neither knew what was going on ,nor was interested in finding out.after all, he had a campaign to plan


Let's move McCain into the leadership position,
since he has shown he realized the problems and had a solution.

____________________

cinnamonape:

One problem that the pro-McCain myrmidons must confront when using the contribution numbers to the specific campaigns. The big contributions to the campaigns are simply not apparent by delving through the standard contribution lists.

These lists are

a) tabulated by those who say the are employees oif a particular firm. It doesn't matter if that person is an office secretary, bike messenger or a Vice-President of Foreign Investments and Acquisitions. There are going to be a whole lot more of those people at the bottom.

b) The wealthy corporate directors will tend to max out their contributions when they give to a campaign. The real influence is curried through giving money to the National Parties (RNC/DNC). That amount of giving is unlimited...the impact of $50,000 to the RNC is far greater than $2400 (max) to Obama. In addition there are PAC's and contributions to 527 groups. If anyone really believes that any particular wealthy corporate executive has only donated $2400 quarterly to the Republican Presidential campaign, I've got a Bridge To Nowhere that I'd like to sell 'ya.

c) McCain can't get any direct contributions anymore. He's dipped into the Public funding for the election. So, of course, there will be no more money from Wall Street directly into the McCain-Palin campaign. But they are getting support via the RNC.

d) Most of Obama's contributions were for the extended primary. And by far the most Wall Street money went to Hillary Clinton in opposition to Obama.

e) All that Wall Street money (maxed out) is les influential in Obamas campaign simply because it is watered down with massive amounts of contributions from other people. Thus the influence of any one, or sector, of individuals is far less than a group of massive donors to the RNC.

So there are vast and surrepticious ways of giving money to the campaigns that are not reported. That's the result of the loopholes in the McCain-Finegold Act.

____________________

Tybo:

cinni, I provided a link showing obama's 9.9 million dollar haul (compared to McCain's 6.9)

you--just words

") All that Wall Street money (maxed out) is les influential in Obamas campaign simply because it is watered down with massive amounts of contributions from other people."

lol, so if a few groups give 10s of million , obama is less influenced?

sure sweetie, cling to that

____________________

Whitetower:

Another invalid DailyKos tracking poll: 53% of respondents are women and 26%(!) are Republicans vs.35% Democrats.

____________________

cinnamonape:

boskop:

"Board employees said ACORN workers often handed in the same name on a number of voter registration cards, but showing that person living at different addresses. Other times, cards had the same name listed, but a different date of birth."

First off your statement that ACORN had 37 people just arrested in Cuyahoga County for voter fraud is simply a lie. I looked up the reports and there haven't been ant recent arrests or prosecutions. The number of convictions for "registration " (fraud (not voting fraud) are from 2000 and 2004 and are only about a dozen. These were cases where the people hired created false registrations and received money from the campaign - they actually ripped off the campaign. No one would have voted on these bogus registrations.

Second, there is nothing in the above that establishes that people with the same name (John Smith, Robert Jones) weren't in fact different people. They had different addresses and different dates of birth. The only thing that the Cuyahoga officials are saying is that they have the same name. This sounds like the County is attempting the same tactics they used in Florida...removing people with the same, or similar names as Felons...from the voting rolls. Thousands of legal voters were purged from the Florida rolls using this method.

Now they are trying it in Ohio, too. I guess one has to have a truly unique name to vote anymore (warning...don't Google yourself).

____________________

zotz:

atreides and vmval-
Sorry, I have a facetious sense of humor. This election is the strangest I have ever seen. It makes the last two look bland. It amazes me how the McCain campaign could throw away the experience argument and try to steal Obama's change message. It was a complete 180 degree turn. And it worked, at least temporarily. They are counting on McCain's "straight talk" image as cover for the lies. It is confusing even the conservatives like Brooks and Krauthammer.

It is clear that McCain's campaign staff has decided that there is no whopper too big for the public to swallow. I don't know, maybe they're right. It reminds me of Lily Tomlin's famous quote, "No matter how cynical you get, it is impossible to keep up."

____________________

thoughtful:

Tybo

"Trading on Russia's main stock exchanges has been suspended following steep falls in shares prices this week.

The shock developments on Wall Street this week spurred a sell-off in Russian shares, which on Tuesday sank to levels not seen since December 2005." BBC

This must be John McCain in action!

____________________

HaloFan:

OK answer me this question, please.

Why are the Dems. starting to talk more and more about Obamas race? Seems to be the new democratic talking points is about Obamas race

Sebelius: Obama’s race ‘may be a factor’ OWA CITY — Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius publicly considered the possibility that Sen. Barack Obama’s race might be a factor in this year’s presidential election during an appearance here Tuesday.
“Have any of you noticed that Barack Obama is part African-American?” Sebelius asked in response to a question about why the election is so close. “That may be a factor. All the code language, all that doesn’t show up in the polls. And that may be a factor for some people.”

____________________

boomshak:

@Whitetower:

The DailyKos poll is a classic example of pretty much how to do everything wrong in a poll.

Only 360 polled per day with a +5% MOE and a sever under-representation of Republicans (by 8 points compared to Rasmussen) in the sample.

It is just a trainwreck.

I mean, 6 weeks from an election, who pay attention to a nationwide poll with a +5 MOE? only partisans who like the results, that's who.

BTW, Hotline uses the same bogus massive oversampling of Democrats in their poll, but it's paid for by a liquor company, so what do you expect?

____________________

boomshak:

How does Zogby even make money as a pollster? I don't know anyone that takes his work seriously on either side of the aisle.

____________________

boomshak:

BTW, the economy is fundamentally sound:

3.3 GDP
6.1 Unemployment
2.5 Foreclosure Rate

All of these are historically absolutely sound. The problem is with the big investment banks.

It is Obama saying that this is the worst economy since the Great Depression who has lost his mind.

For instance, Foreclosure Rate now - 2.5%. Foreclosure Rate in the Great Depression - 50%.

Sound the same to you? Obama thinks they are.

____________________

Whitetower:

Been going through the new ARG polling data. Like some other polls it way oversamples women. For example, in CO and NM women are 55% and 54% of respondents. If Obama is winning the women vote by, say, 10% overall oversampling women by these magnitudes would inflate his support by 1/2% at least.

(I suppose it doesnl't matter in these cases since McCain is ahead by 3% in CO and Obama is ahead by 7% in NM but it does call into question the poll's validity in states that are much closer).

____________________

boomshak:

What you are seeing right now in the markets is a HUGE HUGE HUGE buying opportunity.

When you have markets like this, people are taking massive short positions as the stocks fall. Eventually thoough though, you run out of sellers. As people start to buy the bottom, short sellers have to cover, further rallying the stock.

I would not be surprised at all if the Dow is 1000 points higher by election day than it is now.

____________________

marctx:

Great news for McCain...way to much data at one time...check out the link.

11:11 ARG data for 25 states: McCain ahead in CO, NV, OH

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

____________________

Whitetower:

@Boomshak

BTW, Hotline uses the same bogus massive oversampling of Democrats in their poll, but its paid for by a liquor company so what do you expect?

"Yo what's the word? Thunderbird!"

____________________

Whitetower:

Oh, and 58% of respondents in the ARG WY poll are women.

(Why not make it 100%?)

____________________

Justin:

Internals for Co: http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/CO08.html

3% more republicans than democrats? Is this actually the case? Serious question. I don't know much about the state.

Obama does have a 14 point advantage with independents.

I'd really like to see more polls of Colorado, as well as Virginia, Nevada, Wisconson, Michigan, Nevada, Montana, West Virginia.

It's looking more and more like Montana and West Virginia are in play and more and more like Ohio is not. Though until we have a debate or two we can't have any real idea.

So many of these ARG polls are useless. How many NY polls do we need in a week?

____________________

boomshak:

Basically, I think what we can take from all these polls is that it is about tied with McCain having a big advantage among Independents.

Considering he has every advantage imaginable, Obama whould be ahead by 15 points right now.

This race is starting to look just like 2004 and I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out exactly the same.

____________________

Justin:

Whitetower, WY is actually 50/50 (and irrelevant). I thought maybe you meant WV, but that is 53/47 so I'm lost.

There are more men than women...

____________________

Justin:

Boomshak... huh? Obama is ahead in Independents in CO, WV, and NV. What advantage are you talking about?

____________________

NW Patrick:

God Rethuglicans are funny. Economy sound based on GDP #'s? I'm sure most Americans would answer that question based on food prices, cost of gas, clothing, education, and job availabilities. We are failing badly in those categories.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Is pollster.com on vacation today? Where are all the new polls including Reauters/Zogby showing a SEVERN POINT SWING to obama in the past few weeks. Is this an outlier for things to come? I'm thinkin' so with all the noise moving to Obama in the national polls as of late. And what a HORRIBLE day for out of touch McCain! He looks so tired. I don't think he has the energy to run a country, let alone a company!

____________________

boomshak:

@NWPatrick:

"God Rethuglicans are funny. Economy sound based on GDP #'s? I'm sure most Americans would answer that question based on food prices, cost of gas, clothing, education, and job availabilities. We are failing badly in those categories."

In the runup to 2006, Nancy Pelosi said, "Democrats have a common sense approach to keeping gas prices low..."

Since the Democrats have taken power, gas prices have doubled.

If the Democrats are not to blame for anything bad, then surely they are to receive no credit for anything good. If their actions create neither good nor bad, why the hell are they there?

____________________

Tybo:

and you've got to remember.. obama panned the gas rebate..now he plans a rebate of his own
whooppeeeeeeeeee

____________________

boomshak:

@NWPatrick,

Most seriopus pollsters don't take Zogby seriously. From what I've read, he uses some very odd modeling.

Maybe that's the reason?

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak - Was Bill Clinton or George W Bush a better president economically?:) Shall we compare financial/living indicators from 2000-2008?

____________________

boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

boomshak - Was Bill Clinton or George W Bush a better president economically?:) Shall we compare financial/living indicators from 2000-2008?

By every metric, Bush was better. Considering Bush faced endless problems Clinton did not (9/11, Hurricanes, Iraq, Housing Bubble, etc...), it is truly remarkable.

Do me a favor, look up the average unemployment during Clinton vs Bush and tell me who was lower? How about average GDP? How about average inflation? How about highest Foreclosure Rate?

Bush wins every race.

Clinton's economy fell into recession just because of the dot.com bubble implosion. Bush's economy has withstood countless sdestructive forces and yet has never fallen into recession.

there is no question - Bush's economy far far better.

____________________

boomshak:

For instance, the average unemployment under Bush was 5.0% Under Clinton it was 5.4%

Embarrassed yet NW?

____________________

[nemesis]:

Clinton was handed office with an unemployment rate of 7%. Bush got it at 4%. Kinda plays with the averages.

____________________

HaloFan:

Here it comes folks... the latest attempt to guilt folks into voting for Obama.

All the Obama supporters are now pulling out the race card. The Media is playing along too, CNN says today that Obama means "change" so you're racist if you don't vote for him. They say nothing about Obamas own pick for the Presidency in-waiting, Joe Biden, a career politician from Washington DC with a Lobbyist son. We are supposed to believe Obama and elect him, a Chicago politician with no experience, yet Obamas choice is an old school career politician from Washington DC with a Lobbyist son? So that's the kind of "change" we must except... or we're racist?

____________________

Justin:

Today's Gallup: Obama 47, McCain 45

____________________

NW Patrick:

BOOMSHAK you are absolutely NUTS LOL Can you even think straight? Bush economy was BETTER than Clinton's? LOL Facts elude you.

Wow Obama still up 2% in VA. McCain's in trouble!

____________________

zotz:

This takes hypocrisy to a new high!

Said McCain: "He talks about siding with the people just before he flew off for a fundraiser in Hollywood with Barbra Streisand and his celebrity friends... Let me tell you, my friends, there's no place I'd rather be than right here with the working men and women of Ohio."

However, according to the Los Angeles Times, Sen. John McCain spent the previous night at the Intercontinental Hotel in Miami at a $50,000 per person Republican party fundraiser that raised over $5 million.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/17/mccain_by_day_mccain_by_night.html

____________________

NW Patrick:

Where can I see today's Gallop since Pollster.com is on vacation today?

____________________

Justin:

Patrick, gallup.com

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wow. So all the talk about how "Innacurate" the polls showing Obama up 3 and 4 were. Gallop plus 2 today? What's going on Thugs? You got pretty quiet!

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

Can't wait for Boomshak's spin on the Gallup number. Obama's also back in front on Intrade.

____________________

Justin:

Daily Tracking 9/14-16

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
McCain 44, Obama 48

Diageo / Hotline
McCain 42, Obama 45

Gallup
McCain 45, Obama 47

Rasmussen
McCain 48, Obama 47


Change from yesterday:

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
No Change

Diageo / Hotline
McCain 0, Obama -1

Gallup
McCain -2, Obama +1

Rasmussen
No Change


Average Change:
McCain -0.5, Obama 0

Average Swing:
Obama +0.5

____________________

usefuldata:

@boomshak

I'll play your little data game. If you consider the last 6 years of Clinton vs. Bush presidencies (agreeing that Bush shouldn't be held responsible for 2001/2 and Clinton for 92/93) the average unemployment rates are:

Bush (2003-present) - 5.2%
Clinton (1995-2000) - 4.8%

Do the same exercise with a 7 year window:

Bush (2002-present) - 5.3%
Clinton (1994-2000) - 5.0%

Now, would you care to look up what happened to the Dow and NASDAQ under Clinton vs. Bush?

And your list of endless list of problems Bush had to face and Clinton didn't? Unbelievable that you list "Iraq" as a problem, as if that isn't a problem Bush brought on us all. You were kidding there, right?

____________________

NW Patrick:

This election may end up going back to what I've heard many times a year ago even. When it comes down to it, Americans will vote on the economy and the party in charge will pay severaly. Could it be history is to repeat itself EVEN WITH a unique candidate?

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak you there buddy?

____________________

mac7396:

RNC Convention Bounce = Gone!

____________________

NW Patrick:

McCain was against the AIG Gov. bailout before he was for it. Is this guy LOST? My God. Whichever way the wind blows old man!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Did anyone else notice, and I'm not trying to be a di...k, did McCain look horrible yesterday? Like beat down during all of his interviews? He looked like he got run over by a truck. I just don't think he has the energy to lead this country.

____________________

thoughtful:

Statistical Tie this is about where we were pre conventions with Rasmussen's trend lines distorted by 2 ID weighting Adjustments amounting to over 4% from Obama and independents to McCain like for like.

It will take a little bit of time for the maps to revert.

Iowa looks to be the only State certainly to turn Blue from Red. New Mexico is strongly leaning and Virginia looks better with every poll, with Kerry States that's enough to do it!

Personally, I don't think with the economy the way it is that McCain will pick up anything in the Mid-West other than a case of Fall Flu!

Oregon or Washington - I don't see it.

Rasmussen's reports WI and OR later today. I am not expecting these polls to reflect the 5% to 7% lead Obama has in each, but I await the numbers.

____________________

mac7396:

Perhaps the new Gallup results can be reclassified as:

47% smart people
45% greedy and/or stupid people

____________________

KipTin:

When are you going to give it up "thoughtful?" There is NO basis to keep harping back to past political ID. Rasmussen polling data indicates a change in ID. What do you not get about that?

Also, Iowa is Obama's. McCain is not expecting Iowa to flip to him, because for years he has been very strongly against corn/agricultural subsidies there. Why even discuss Iowa? It is not a battleground by any measure this year.

Virginia does not look better for Obama with every poll. It looks the same.

____________________

zotz:

A week ago Boomshak was calling Gallup the "gold standard" of polling. So Boomy, do you agree McCain is 2 pts. behind Obama?

What a HOOT! I think she will be on vacation for a while.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Keep in mind. This national polling in some cases doesn't even reflect the full news cycle of yesterday, a VERY telling day to Americans proving just how out of touch McCain is.

____________________

Tybo:

NW Patrick:
McCain was against the AIG Gov. bailout before he was for it. Is this guy LOST? My God. Whichever way the wind blows old man!

...

youmean the American INsurance group as Barack calls it.
LOL

____________________



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