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US: Daily Tracking (9/14-16)

Topics: PHome

National Daily Tracking Surveys
9/14-16/08

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
1,100 LV, 3%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 48, McCain 44

Diageo / Hotline
913 RV, 3.2%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 45, McCain 42

Gallup
2,787 RV, 2%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 47, McCain 45

Rasmussen
3,000 LV, 2%; IVR
McCain 48, Obama 47

 

Comments
hyh:

Taking a look at what typical convention bounce looks like (see below) …

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3172/2764497789_063cbd35f0_o.png
(taken from…)
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html

… and daily tracking polls (especially Gallup daily up until yesterday – today’s change is more than expected), I find it both surprising and not surprising that how the numbers have been moving towards Obama over last week. The whole trend almost too perfect. For whatever its’ worth a point or two gain for Obama over next week in poll-of-poll average is what’s expected in fact if we go by the convention bounce graph above. To me recent daily poll results suggest a bounce not a surge as sometimes noted by some of the media.

Many experts don’t trust polls for ~2 weeks after the conventions because of the bounce effect – of course media, bloggers and trolls still feel the need to say things – say anything – to appear relevant or whatever. Whether experts trust the data for those ~2 weeks or not, pollsters will poll as long as someone pays them.

Past polling data all suggest that the first debate should be the most important factor now. Money and advertising is no doubt important but to a lesser degree. People have to pay strong attention to be influenced (background noise aka ads only go so far – tivo anyone?). The first debate is when the largest number of people will be paying attention.

Things like voter enthusiasm gap really shouldn’t make whole lot of difference except in close elections. In any case, it’s probably fair to say that African American turnout should be higher than usual. Can social conservatives become even more enthusiastic than in 2000 or 2004?

Of course, trying to use the past as a gauge for future is tricky business. Given the prosperity at the time, Gore should have beaten Bush soundly in 2000. It didn’t happen. Given what was considered at the time too-low approval incumbent rating, Bush had no business getting re-elected in 2004. He did. Everything points to Dem win in 2008, but given weird results in past 2 elections no one should be betting the farm.

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NW Patrick:

Mayber Americans are finally paying attention. McCain looked extremely tired yesterday and desperate. Can he keep up? I think many people are underestimating Obama in the debates. McCain in NO WAY did well during his primary debates. As you say with Obama and a teleprompter, take away a town hall with FRIENDLY questions and McCain looks mad. We've also made WAY too much about the RELIGIOUS forum last month, again, McCain was preachin' to the choir. Look for Obama to look VERY presidential during the debates, and McCain, cranky, old school, and out of touch.

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sherman:

Yay! We're back. Looks like we're up-to-date now.

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Justin:

Change from yesterday:

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
No Change

Diageo / Hotline
McCain 0, Obama -1

Gallup
McCain -2, Obama +1

Rasmussen
No Change


Average Change:
McCain -0.5, Obama 0

Average Swing:
Obama +0.5

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jamesia:

@ Justin:

What's your average swing % over the last few days?

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harschwarz:

The economic bomb that happened on 9/15, and McCain's subsequent gaffe, is the "read my lips" quote that is propelling Obama now and probably for the rest of the election. McCain's conundrum is his voting record on regulation over investment, insurance and banks. He and Phil Gramm have a 20 yr record that shows they have basically destroyed the Glass/Siegel Act that kept post depression regulations in place.

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Tunanoodle:

Where is Greg?

That kid should be able to help us sort these numbers out.

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zen:


Well, looks like bounce is going away.
Anyhow, without big surprise, Obama will have a slim lead before the first debate.

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eugene:

When the gop see these polls,they are going to start a conflict over seas,because thats the only way they can win this,because right now all the media is talking about is the economy,in the mccain camp dont want that,its not good for his numbers,thats why their going to attack obamas character,,,,,,,they wants the media to talk about personal issues not the economy because they know mccain will not have a chance of winning.

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ronnie:

a

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zen:


Finally Hurricane Palin is gone after 2 weeks.

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sherman:

Any word from the guys rapping the DailyKos poll? Looks like Gallup is confirming their results now.

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JFactor:

A terrorist attack would seal this race for McCain for sure. When I read about the attack against the consulate earlier today it didn't take long to realize that if that had been a bit more "meaningful" attack (dead U.S citizens etc.) then McCain would have received a good-sized bump in the polls.
________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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ronnie:

im an independent voter and simply amazed at what ive seen since the primaries....the numbers im seeing right now arent surprising...i expect this trend to continue into the first debate....i think the people are beginning to take aware of the blatant distortions and tactics of diversion from the mccain camp...the mccain gaffe on the economy may also signal a new surge in the polls for obama....anyways, it should make for a fantastic finish.

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jamesia:

I'm also not registered with either party. I think a lot of advertising by both campaigns is called negative but really it's just critical. Then there are the outright lies coming from McCain & Palin. The McCain campaign's recent attempts to block the ethics investigations concerning Palin are the last straw for me. If she has nothing to hide, she should go to court and be vindicated... it'd be terrific positive news for her. No one fights an ethics investigation if they're innocent.


@ JFactor:

I understand your point, even though it's a pretty disgusting point to make. Realistically though, we have no idea how a terrorist attack would affect polls. It'll come down to "John McCain is great for national security" vs "Bush's (and McCain's) national security policies have not made us safer"....

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change:

yup, this race is turning again. obama needs to keep hammering mccain on the economy, that we the GOP can throw mud to win the election. hopefully state polls will catch up soon. i predict at least a 4 point margin favoring obama by saturday!

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Justin:

jamesia, over the last three days there has been an average swing of 0.75 per day to Obama. If it continues at this rate you should see three of the four polls swing one more point to Obama tomorrow, though if I had to guess I'd say Rasmussen alone will swing two or three points to Obama, but we'll see.

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bmcavan:

I think it is very troubling that the markets have been so shaky but there is a silver lining:

WE ARE NO LONGER TALKING ABOUT SARAH F'ING PALIN!!!!!!!!

All the crushed dreams almost seem worth it (but then again not at all).

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Stuart:

Well if Obama is at +2 National then at state level its probably
Kerry+IA+NM+CO+VA
at this point
Given cell phone + GOTV effect we might even get OH+NV
And if palin goes a lot more negative in favorables there is even a shot at FL.

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cmbat:

@sherman-

Exactly. Ah the irony...all of the bad-mouthing, but the shift in party percentages was the mistake in the Gallup and Ras polls. That fades. In the end, there is NO WAY that the R/D/I ratio doesn't go toward the D's this time, and that's what the Obama people know with their own internals and that's why Research 2000 (Daily Kos doesn't do the poll, idiots) is correct. There's still plenty of undecideds and room either way, and the margin of error, but right now, Convention Bounce is over and Obama has a slight lead and would win if the election were held today. But it isn't. You watch how ugly the Republicans will take this as they get more and more desperate.

I stand by my predictions. Obama wins this running away unless he screws up the debates. Running away in our country today is 3-5% nationally. Probably around 306 EVs.

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boomshak:

You know, I am curious about something and maybe someone who knows more about polling than I do can tell me.

Why is Gallup so much more volatile than Rasmussen? They are both tracking polls and both poll about the same numbers. Yet Gallup makes these huge swings up and down and Rasmussen seems to stay in a 3 point range.

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boomshak:

Well the debates should be fun.

Rasmussen has McCain up one, Gallup has McCain down 2 and Ipsos has it tied. One interesting thing I think, despite a 24/7 BJ from the MSM, Obama can never get above 47%.

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boomshak:

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO THINK THERE IS NO MSM BIAS IN FAVOR OF OBAMA, LET ME ASK YOU TWO QUESTIONS:

1) Can you point out a single negative article from the MSM in the last two weeks regarding Obama?
2) Are there enough hours in the day to list all the negative stories about McCain/Palin for the last two weeks?

Case closed. The bias is repugnant.

And still, McCain is tied. Lord what a pathetic candidate Obama is.

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Tybo:

interesting to see those that dissed the polls last week embrace them this week.

LOL, all the better..

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mirrorball:

@boomshak: I'll assume you were referring to just the polling done after the GOP conventions, since Gallup has Obama at 48-50 on several occasions since early June. Likewise with Rasmussen, if you go with the results factoring leaners.

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thoughtful:

Tybo

Of course I am still not happy with the Rasmussen ID weighting.

It all change again at 6 EST with the Ras release of OR and WI. I bet one is a tie or small McCain lead!

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Tybo:

"If we're going to ask questions about, you know, who has been promulgating negative ads that are completely unrelated to the issues at hand, I think I win that contest pretty handily," Obama said.

how true... can you type it in an email, barry?

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brambster:

There's nothing at all odd about these numbers. I predicted early last week that it would trend this way without substancial news, and if there was news, it was a negative for McCain. The state polls should also start to correct back to the pre-convention norms.

Of course this isn't game over for McCain. The debates will either seal the deal or make this race deeply competitive again.

I still strongly believe that Palin was the worst VP pick since Thomas Eagleton. I was certainly surprised as how much lift she gave to McCain during and immediately after the convention, but she was nothing more than a paper tiger. Now this pick will start to become a liability. Her lack of experience is astonishing for a VP pick which would have been much better served by a trusted voice on the economy. Her legal troubles are starting to be handled exactly the same way the Bush administration deals with such things (by obstructing them, refusing to cooperate, and claiming partisanship). And Palin's foreign policy experience amounts to just about a total zero. I can't believe she even said that you could see Russia from parts of Alaska as on a VP level, this equates to saying that you can count to three or tie your shoes.

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sherman:

There are no negative stories about Obama because McCain and Palin are running a broadly deceptive campaign. If bias in the media means that doing its job and exposing lies then I'll take bias any day of the week. Are you asking the media to take the McCain lies, report on them, and them make stuff up about Obama just so they won't look biased in your eyes? The Republicans scream media biased every time they get caught pulling the wool over everyone's eyes. "How DARE THE MEDIA EXPOSE OUR MACHINATIONS!!! BIAS!!!!"

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thoughtful:

@Brampster

I am with you on the Palin pick and go a bit further as she definitely breaks the "do no harm" rule.

McCain is in deep dep trouble over the economy, he was there in Congress he deregulated and this is what happens.

Now he is in favour of "reform" and regulation.

Yesterday he was against an AIG bail out today he is in favour. Yesterday he thought the economy was in Crisis and then it was fundamentally sound.

No wonder he is confused as to where Sarah Palin was on the Bridge to Nowhere, to Earmarks.

No Credibility and a Liar.

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Tybo:

sherman,
There's an analysis in WaPo today showing that Obama ran more negative ads last week than the Mccain did, it's hidden in a HOwards Kurtz collumn.


your faith in the media is interesting.. given it's the media that backed bush's war, and is now backing Obama.
so are you saying the media gave the truth fairly back then?
the dems and anti-war said the media was completely biased back then
Or are you now supporting the media ,since it supports you?


Here's obama lying and lying and lying..

http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=5803765


why hasnt' the media gone after Ads that attack McCains broken hands?

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thoughtful:

CNN has Obama +2 in Ohio: tied in FL: McCain +1 in NC; Obama +3 in WI; McCain +6 IN

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Justin:

Mostly good news for Obama in the CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. poll.

9/14-16

Florida (907 RV) Obama 48, McCain 48
Ohio (913 RV) Obama 49, McCain 47
Wisconsin (950 RV) Obama 50, McCain 47
North Carolina (910 RV) Obama 47, McCain 48
Indiana (890 RV) Obama 45, McCain 51

No internals so I wouldn't take these too seriously.

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Justin:

Tybo,

...huh? Will you give one example of Obama lying in that interview you linked, please?

When did anyone ever attack McCain's "broken hands." Pointing out that he doesn't know how to use a computer is attacking his broken hands? It's totally irrelevant. There are people WITHOUT hands who know perfectly well how to use a computer. How do you look at yourself in the mirror?

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KipTin:

OK... If you guys think the McCain about "sex education" implied something so outrageous, then you also have to accept that the Obama "computer/email" also implied something just as egregious.

Actually, the Obama ad was more like "clueless" in not seeing that it may have focused on McCain's handicaps (or at least his age) rather than just being "out of touch" theme. But this ad only played well to Obama's youth base, and probably offended older voters that Obama needs to vote for him.

(Note: I found it amusing that the disco ball and Rubic's Cube are now back in vogue. And that many voters have good memories of the 80's.)

And the McCain ad was directed at social conservatives who do not believe that strangers should be teaching their children ANYTHING about sex. Especially teachers among who exist pedophiles who may jump at the chance to "educate" these kids... aka opportunity to groom them.

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Justin:

KipTin, if McCain was 90 years old and not out of touch this ad wouldn't have worked. His lack of understanding concerning the internet is liability. Saying that is off limits because he's old is like saying Palin's lack of experience is off limits because she's a woman. If McCain was 40 years old and unable to use a computer would you still be complaining about this ad and ad pointing it out as unfair? McCain is the Candidate. He is 71 years old. Sarah Palin is the VP candidate and she is a women. Neither of these things should make certain deficits in their resumes' untouchable. They are who they are and need to run on their actual merits, not hide behind their age and sex.

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Joe:

War plan = "God's plan." (Palin)

Energy plan = Drill more oil domestically, especially in Alaska, because that would make us energy independent. (McCain/Palin) Let me get this straight this straight. Even though global oil prices may be at $100 dollars a barrel, we will retain and use any oil found domestically as if it were only valued at $50. Is that what energy independence means? And Exxon and Shell would agree to this charity rate because ...?

The economic "mess" plan = “stopping the abuses and that violation of the pubic trust.” (Palin on Hannity today) We do that by ... ?? "I'm always for less regulation...I am fundamentally a deregulator." (McCain). 'We need a commission to study the problem' (McCain)

McCain/Palin = 'Maverick reformers' ... ???

Maybe the public is starting to pay attention and, unlike McCain campaign manager Rick Davis, they believe this election is about issues.

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McCain and Palin have no economic plan, and no plan to get our country out of this war in Iraq. I don't want 4 more years of Bush and Cheney. Get to the polls and vote for Obama and Biden!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

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JimGray:

Boomshack:
MSM is biased? Wow that's new news.
To think the media hasn't the sword of politicians for millenia would be declaring your own ignorance.

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Stuart:

Help nail Palin with VERY effective ad targeted at white women:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7091859

Read the top clip, then go to the link below to the blurb contribute.

Very effect negative ad.

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ronnie:

jamesia, i totally agree with you about mrs. palin...

the bottom line is the more mrs. palin's reputation declines in the public eye the further mccain slides in the polls...there's a reason why the mccain camp has actively been trying to kill this investigation.

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shells:

CBS poll just came out, Obama up by 5, when u add Nader/Barr, he's up by 6. Dems were polled 7% more than Repubs. This is great news!

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Sep08b-Elec.pdf

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shells:

CBS poll just came out, Obama up by 5, when u add Nader/Barr, he's up by 6. Dems were polled 7% more than Repubs. This is great news!

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Sep08b-Elec.pdf

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