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US Daily Tracking (9/16-18)

Topics: PHome

National Daily Tracking Surveys
9/16-18/08

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
1,100 LV, 3%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 49, McCain 42

Diageo / Hotline
915 RV, 3.2%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 45, McCain 44

Gallup
2,796 RV, 2%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 49, McCain 44

Rasmussen
3,000 LV, 2%; IVR
Obama 48, McCain 48

 

Comments
IndependentThinker:

Thanks but no thanks for that bridge to nowhere

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Tyler:

Encouraging numbers. I said in the middle of last week that I expected by the end of this week (i.e. today) the national trackers would be somewhere between Even and O+2. The average here is O+3.25 (and still O+2 even if you exclude DailyKos), which I think bodes well for Obama.

McCain might get a small bounce after the first debate (foreign policy) depending on how often he finds a way to bring up the POW angle, but aside from that or the possibility of another attack ad getting major traction, I don't see any way for McCain to move up significantly from here.

Now I can't wait until early next week when we will see state-level polls that cover the field time reflected in these trackers.

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Justin:

::Change from yesterday::

DailyKos.com / Research 2000
Obama 0, McCain -1

Diageo / Hotline
Obama -1, McCain +2

Gallup
Obama +1, McCain 0

Rasmussen
Obama 0, McCain 0


Average Change
Obama 0, McCain +0.25

Average Swing
McCain + 0.25

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eugene:

the hotline poll is full of it,how can mccain jump 3pts in a day when the economy is suffering,but am not suprised because these polls forget about the minority voters in young voters,expect the mccain camp to start playing the race card in fear card,because he knows he cant win on the issues

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PHGrl:

Thanks Justin.. always wait for you to post this..

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Tyler:

Also, one interesting thing about the Gallup poll is if you look at the full spread of results, 3% of respondants say "Neither", and 4% say "No opinion". So there really arent 7% undecided voters as the 49/44 split might suggest. There are actually only 4% undecided, and the other 3% are planning to vote 3rd party or stay home. And note that 44 + 4

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c y:

well gallup makes me depressed but hotline with its +9 dem sample makes me smile

who knows I guess Obama is +2 avg

on to the debates

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Justin:

Eugene, it looks like 9/15 was a very good day for Obama in the Hotline poll. You can see that the day it was added (9/16) there was a three point swing to Obama. Now the day it's dropped there is a three point swing to McCain. Add that to a small sample and large MoE and here is the result.

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Tyler:

Heh, that last sentence should should read "And note that 44 + 4

That's what I get for forgetting that this forum accepts HTML.

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Tyler:

Okay so apparently there's no way to display a less-than sign on this forum. I give up.

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thoughtful:

These polls are wonderful illustrations of how volatile it is:

Yesterday Obama polled a lot bigger with Gallup and smaller with Hotline and MCain bigger.Thats why the MOE is 5% in a single day.

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Ryan in MO:

So.... Looks like MO and NC have dropped off our recent polls list. Somebody want to get them back on??? Anyone?

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Tybo:

"xpect the mccain camp to start playing the race card in fear card,"

you mean , the race card Obama's been playing all along?

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Justin:

No problem, PHGrl. :)

@c y: Can you please direct me to where you see that Hotline has a +9 democratic sample? I'm not seeing that anywhere, but am interested.

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greg in charlotte:

Are there any smart Liberals on this post that can help me make a point?

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c y:

I like the avg on RCP

Right now its +1.9% for Obama

They were right on with there avg and final election result from 2004.

Does anyone know the dem/gop/ind breakdown for gallup?

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NW Patrick:

Yah Obama was part of the Republican party in TX with bottoms, if Obama wins, will we call it the white house? Obama was part of the Republican party in TN passing out Obama WAFFLES, give me a break. White privelage in this country is so disgusting. How else can Obama be questioned for 2 years about his experience, patriotism, pastor, and an unknown from AK come in and be READY TO LEAD INSTANTLY? LOL Can you imagine if Obama's daughter's boyfriend had a myspace page up that said he will "Kick your ass" and loves to shoot things. F this F that? Or what if Obama had a pregnant daughter because he didn't teach her about protection? Give me a break white people. (I AM WHITE)

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NW Patrick:

greg in charlotte, could you explain to be what REPUBLICAN is? What are your ideas? Fiscal responsibility? You made the largest deficit in the history of man kind for any country to ever grace this earth? Morals? You have had more scandals within your party than any party in recent memory. (Bathroom stalls, gay pastors...the list goes on.)

WHAT DO YOU STAND FOR? WHAT IS IT YOUR PARTY IS TRYING TO ACCOMPLISH? Serious question!

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Republicans=Ignorance:

Party ID for the Hotline poll:

"Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I."

Dems +5

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/09/diageohotline_t_7.html#comments

Never believe a Republican's "facts" without checking for yourself.

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c y:

Justin:

I am sorry.
Its Kos that has the +9dem sample.

Hotline does not list it or I am not seeing it.

Sorry again.

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greg in charlotte:

Patrick the smart liberal, Im still waiting for you to answer my simple question. How does Obamas economy plan differ from Jimmy Carter. Patrick if you don't know then please be quite. If there are any actual smart libs out there please help me with this question with out a bunch of childish gibber.

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DecaturMark:

@Justin

Actually the breakdown in the Hotline poll was 41D 35R and 19I


http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/09/diageohotline_t_7.html

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greg in charlotte:

I cannot get one obama supporter to answer this simple question.

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c y:

Thanks for letting me know the breakdown on hotline. is +5dem which would be the same as Ras+5dem which I guess would make both polls be so close to each other.

sorry again for my mistake.

thats why i think Obama has about 1.9% lead nationally.

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jatchwa:

Greg, perhaps you can't get anyone to respond to your question because this is a site designed to discuss polling, and no one is interested in discussing it here.

Why won't anyone discuss the Red Sox with me here?

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nick-socal:

This is good news for Obama. BUT let's not forget the shenanigans that have gone into the last two national elections. The Republican machine will be out in full force making darn sure that Democrats can't or won't vote.

As it stands right now -- Black man running for president and the Republican machine in full force -- McCain wins this thing by a few electoral votes AND he wins the popular vote.

It's silly to think that Obama can win, even with these polls. I'd say that he'd have to have a SOLID 7% lead in the nationals and at least a 20 Electoral Vote buffer going into election day to even have a prayer.

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pion:

@NW Patrick: "WHAT DO YOU STAND FOR? WHAT IS IT YOUR PARTY IS TRYING TO ACCOMPLISH? Serious question!"

I'm not a Republican, but since you are asking a serious question, check out this endorsement from Wick Allison who was a publisher of National Review (yes the same journal founded by William F. Buckley) who organized for Barry Goldwater. It's actually one of the most thoughtful endorsements of Obama I've ever read.

http://www.dmagazine.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?nm=Core+Pages&type=gen&mod=Core+Pages&tier=3&gid=B33A5C6E2CF04C9596A3EF81822D9F8E

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c y:

Greg as a Mccain supporter lets just comment on the polls on this site and keep the policy on this site to a minimum.

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NW Patrick:

greg in charlotte there is a big difference. Obama's plan gives tax breaks to people making under $250,000 per year, you know, 80% of Americans. Carters did not. While you rip carter by the way, keep in mind, Carter had GREATER job creation during his term than Reagan AND both Bushes. Also, 30 PLUS YEARS AGO HE HAD THE FORSITE to realize that the US should and COULD NOT depend on foreign oil. The Rethuglicans FAUGHT it tooth and nail. Then the oil man, Reagan, came into office, massively increased the national debt as Republicans do, and of course gas was so cheap, Americans forgot about the gas prices of the 70's while gas prices dropped and the environment suffered. He lost the campaign because gas prices were high and due to events in Iran as well. Obama has a plan to HELP our failing job market with new GREEN jobs. What a concept, something Republicans could NEVER think of. Just like FDR did, create jobs, employee hundreds of thousands to millions of Americans, and where does that money they make go? You GUESSED IT. Right back into the US Ecoonomy. And what else do we get? Innovation, new jobs for our economy, safer, cleaner energy. I know this is very difficult for "VALUES" voters to conceptualize, and I know it sounds too good to be true. But year after year of calling yourselves FISCAL conservatives while you BLAST our debt into uncharted territories really kills your argument of calling DEMS big spending now doesn't it? I'm still waiting on my WMD's and a true reason for going to war with Iraq. If you are so small minded in your Southern routes to think the US is safer after invading a middle Eastern country, enraging millions, you, well, I guess need to educate yourself.

Did you have any other questions greg in charlotte?

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george:

@cy:

To be fair to Republicans: the Party ID is listed clearly on the hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com site (the one linked to in the scroll on the right of the Pollster site), but is not listed, for some reason, on the--otherwise, much more detailed--diageohotlinepoll.com site.

Go figure.

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greg in charlotte:

jatch
remember the childish gibber rule.

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Inkan1969:

greg in charlotte:

When the Village gets #6 to answer why he resigned, then you'll be able to get your "smart Liberals" to answer your question.

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Justin:

Thanks, R=I and Mark.

Why they don't have that information in there "Complete Analysis" is beyond me. I haven't been visited the blog, but I'll need to start doing that. They seem to have the poll out earlier there as well.

Does anyone know if that's a weighted average (it was the same yesterday so it appears to be) and if so how they determine that weight?

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NW Patrick:

greg in charlotte WHY DOES EVERY REPLUBLICAN ADMIN run the debt up to massive amounts? Could you explain?

Why are the top 3 rated Economic presidents ALL DEM since WWII? Why can't Republicans lead?

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cmbat:

@tybo-

No, the race card that only McCain can play. News flash...not that this is anything new...but the Republicans are going to have to take this to new lows in terms of negativity in October. They only had to "Swift Boat" Kerry because he didn't fight back. With Obama leading and McCain never able to crack 44, and with Obama fighting back, they are going to have to take it ugly, and that says a lot when you are talking about the Republicans to begin with.

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Tybo:

so gallup has the race widening, hotline has it tigtening , and rasmussen has it staying the same.

geez

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NW Patrick:

I wonder if Rome knew it was crumbling while it was crumbling? Seems our country has the same sickness.

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Tybo:

cmbat, in case you missed it Obama has been playing the race card from the start.

When Clinton pointed out that Obama being consistant on anti-Iraq war was a "Fairy Tale",the obama campaign labled him a racist.
They did the same thing with HRC and "tear for her hair, but not Katrina"
Obama has made charges of racism "it's coming" a basic tenet of his campaign
It's disgusting.

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Justin:

All right, next question, does anyone know where I can find Gallup's methodolgy/party breakdown?

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StuffOfInterest:

@Tybo:

Noise. I've been trying to look more at long term trends than day to day changes. Obviously, polling is not an exact science. I wish more pollsters than Kos would give the per day numbers. Using the raw numbers you can build your own three or even five day averages to bring down the MoE.

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HaloFan:

@Tybo
do you think playing the race card that obama peopel are doing will backfire?
or will it guilt some people into voting for obama

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cmbat:

@greg in charlotte-

I'm also assuming that you are in the camp that fiscal policy should always be the same and always works the same in any economy or global environment? In other words, just because raising taxes slightly under Clinton after the Bush 41 recession led to balancing the budget and economic prosperity, it might be the case that post-Bush 43 recession/depression that balancing the budget might not be the priority until we put people back to work.

Repubs are always so ignornant in that they think "lower taxes, run deficits, deregulate" is the solution...always. A lot of times, that can create growth. I would think anyone with a brain could look at the last two weeks and realize that you can't always run the country like that.

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c y:

Justin:

I have been asking the same question about gallup and there breakdown

I cant find it either???

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nick-socal:

There is not trend. Obama can't/won't win, sadly. This country is still predominately white, still center/right, and still has the power base consolidated in the Republicans lap. This "close" race and Obama's supposed lead is a media driven concept created to generate ratings, thus ad revenue.

Sorry to have to say it, but so many of you are going to be disappointed on Election Day. OBAMA WILL NOT WIN UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. This is the United States of America people.

Now, McCain dies in two years, he's a sick man and the media won't talk about that. Palin becomes president and she has to, under the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, submit her choice for VP to Congress. Congress will have to approve her choice with a majority or 2/3 if there is a reason.

And what does that leave us? Checkmate. This is a chess game and we're all just reading silly polls getting worked up.

2009 - 2011 President McCain
2011 - 2012 President Palin (with Democratically approved V.P.)

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greg in charlotte:

Dear Patrick the smart liberal,
You are trying to make this to complicated. The answer is as simple as the question. You cannot take from the rich and give to the poor. The rich will always win. I doubt that you are old enough to really remember or understand what Jimmy Carter really did to our country. The non relative crap you copy/paste here is meaningless. The bottom line is when you raise taxes on the rich they always pass in on in the form of higher prices for everything and that triggers higher interest rates. For exsample if you tried to buy a home during the Carter admin. you would have got approx a 20% interest rate. That means that a $200,000 dollar home would be about $4000 per mo. Auto loans where in the mid 20% range. People could not afford to buy anything. Ragan saved this country with trickle down econcomics, period. That means you lower taxes for everyone and the free market will adjust and maintain itself with out problems. Obama wants to raise taxes and give the money to the least productive americans, an incentive to continue to be a loser. It all sounds good to the dumbest of Americans that cannot see around the corner or who are too stupid to go back and research what life was like in the late 70's.

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Justin:

Dear everyone,

Why are you still responding to greg/halo?

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greg in charlotte:

Patrick and CMBat now I hope you know question What is the difference between Obama and Jimmy Carter...NONE

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Ryan in MO:

@nick

people will realize that mccain will not make it through his term, and people have already realized that Palin would be a train-wreck, and obama will be a landslide. I still say 35 -40 states will ultimately be blue. Ponder, for a moment, who will be the candidate if McCain doesn't make it to election day. In the very plausible event that this occurs?

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greg in charlotte:

They must grow good dope in MO

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NW Patrick:

greg in charlotte America is deciding currently if McCain is Bush:) Not good news for you.

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Tarp Lazer:

Greg, I created a profile just for you; you should feel proud.

First, you sell houses, congrats. That makes you pretty ordinary and not particularly knowledgable on any of the issues talked about here. You have backed that up numerous times with ridiculous rants and personal attacks.

Second, I wonder what exactly you intend to accomplish. I mean, do you honestly think that you will change the vote of even a single poster on Pollster.com? I mean really? Do you think someone will say "man, you know what, this rude Greg guy on this website dealing with polling keeps insisting that Obama is like Carter, and well damn he must be right, I am voting for McCain." If you think that, you are delusional.

Finally, do you know anything at all about economics or Carter's economic policy specifically? Carter fundamentally went against the traditional values of the Democratic Party - full employment, the welfare state, etc. Instead he turned towards the center. He is a well-known reluctant Keynsian and a financial conservative. He passed policies dealing with trade restriction and social and economic deregulation. Yes, DEregulation. The question should be to you - how in the world is Obama's economic plan at ALL like Carter's?

Finally, Carter was 30 years ago. The world and the economy were different. The idea that his economic plan would be exactly like anyone's now is simply proposterous. The economic is a fairly large and complicated issue. Candidates (and past presidents) coverge on some economic issues and diverge on others. No two plans are the same. This is obvious.

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HaloFan:

Dear everyone
Justin has no clue what he is talking about.
and by the way
Biden is looking scraier by the minute
Obama is sounding more and more like his pastor and mentor Wright – angry -

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NW Patrick:

Greg in Charlotts - WHY HAVE the Republicans run up the largest debt in the history of the world for one country? WHY? Since we've had trickle down economics for 8 years I need to understand.

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nick-socal:

@Ryan in MO

I hope you're right, but I just don't see it. Hell, the EXIT polls had Kerry winning in 2004.

Who would replace McCain provided he didn't make it to Election Day?

Romney.

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NW Patrick:

nick-socal no POLL had Kerry winning in '04. The overall average was about +2% Bush and he won by that. If obama is up +2% he will win. Too much is put into this racial effect. Remember, almost 50% of this country is NOT white. In addition, MOST white people are not racist. BY THE WAY, Obama is as much WHITE as he is BLACK.

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greg in charlotte:

Tarp Lazer
I am very ordinary probably alot like you. Yes you are right that was 30 years ago but obama is still using this old tired style of economics. So much for change.
You may also find it ordinary that I have made over a $100,000 for nearly 20 straight years selling homes. Feel free to laugh at me or deminish my opinion. I wonder if you even have a job.

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HaloFan:

The only person who may not make it thrugh to the election is Biden.
He is foaming from the mouth. He looks and sounds like a man Possessed

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NW Patrick:

I think the upcoming debate will be exciting. I love how the media makes this a McCain "Strength." Did you watch the primary debates? McCain looked horrible against more articulate candidates like Romney and Huck.
This is not a town hall with GOOD FOLKS asking soft ball questions. This will be a debate. And on the brains, Obama's got it. McCain may not look so presidential. Remember, Americans love visuals, 5'7, 73 years old vs 6 ft. PLUS, young, articulate. Don't think this will be a McCain win. I would argue the opposite.

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NW Patrick:

Greg I'm still wondering about the deficit question really ENHANCED like no other presidency by the "Fiscal conservatives."

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kerrchdavis:

@Tarp

Thank you for that, Greg doesn't have a clue.

Here is the interesting thing I have noticed for everyone that thinks America won't vote for a liberal because the country is middle/right. Has anyone else noticed how Obama is beating McCain on the question: Who is closer to your values? This isn't scientific, but the last few national polls I've seen McCain has been behind by quite a bit.

It's not about what Obama actually IS politically, it's about perception people. And more Americans feel that Obama closest resembles their values even if he votes very liberally. That is why the right/middle argument does not make sense in this case.

At least, I think... :)

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John:

Justin and c y:
I do not think the Gallup Daily is weighted by party id. Which explains both why it is more variable, and why it reacts to a greater degree to certain events like the conventions than party weighted polls, such as Rasmussen.

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NW Patrick:

greg in charlotte we actually have something in common. But I sell homes in a beautiful, liberal, green, friendly US city called Portland.

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nick-socal:

@NW Patrick:
Most of your post is false. Electoral-Vote had Kerry up. AND the dang exit polls on election day had him winning. Since when are exit polls wrong? Why would people lie about who they voted for AFTER they voted?

Face reality man, the Republican machine will be out in full force. Kerry and Gore won, we all know that. Look who's president.

And the U.S. is not almost 50% non-white. It's like 80% white!! Sorry but you're just so off base with your entire post.

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greg in charlotte:

patrick who cares ......you sound like a college kid who thinks he knows everything but really knows nothing.

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Napoleon Complex:

@greg in charlotte:

I remember back to the Nixon/Ford days, and lived through the Reagan/Bush I days as a small businessman. It was no fun. Their boom/bust cycles cost me some friends in the real estate development industry who committed suicide when the speculation bubbles burst like they are bursting today. I’ve probably made ten times what you have ever made in your life, so I’m no wide-eyed socialist liberal. What I do know is that most modern empires fail when the division of wealth becomes too great and the population at large feels like they are not being treated fairly. I know it kills people like you to think that some welfare queen is sitting around eating bon-bons and watching TV all day on your dime, but I would rather err on the side of that happening than letting greedy speculators (of all persuasions) ruin the economy as a whole.

Capitalism is like a pit bull on a leash. It would be great to let it run free, but when you do it gets into all kinds of trouble. The laissez-faire philosophy has had its turn. We need to move the ship leftward toward the center, otherwise we could end up destroying the middle class for good. Obama’s plan is more like Clinton’s and will give us that kind of prosperity and sense of fairness. McCain is just offering more of the same philosophy that's ruining our great country.

Okay, go ahead and hurl some invective at me.

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kerrchdavis:

@NW

I completely agree with you but lets keep pushing the argument that McCain is the favorite. Many of the conservatives on here keep talking about Obama's weakness being debates. When you debate against someone as good as Hilary, it is easy to perceive it as a weakness. Can you imagine what Hilary would do to McCain in debates? Anyway, the point is, I really prefer going in as the underdog and I hope McCain keeps the heavy favorite title.

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NW Patrick:

kerrchdavis great post. Something is going on in this country. I have to believe this is Obama's race to lose. I am hearing story after story about friends who have uncles, aunts, grandmas, grandpas, who were staunch conservatives, even evangelicals, who are voting Obama. My own personal story is my 90 year old Uncle and Aunt. They are vibrant people, very outspoken. We were over there about 2 weeks ago, and my Dad (who voted for Bush twice, Clinton before - Independent now voting for Obama) assumed who my Uncle was for as he's X military, even made racial remarks before, he said "So Uncle, votin' for good 'ole John McCain?" My uncles yelled out, HELL NO. I CAN'T STAND THAT GUY." My Aunt said "We can afford another 4 years of Bush."

Now someone tell me that strategy isn't working?

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NW Patrick:

Great points Napoleon Complex. I will also ADD for Greg in Charlotte to "EDUCATE" himself that this is a CONSUMER nation. What the hell do we MAKE anymore? If the middle class is slipping and can't afford to PURCHASE to keep our consumer economy rolling then what do we have? Cheap Shi... from Walmart...YEP.

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greg in charlotte:

Mr super rich Nepolen,
Try to stay on the subjest of Carter. I lived thru Carter and Bush. You make a ridiculus comparison

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NW Patrick:

nick-socal the US is NOT 80% white LOL.
I would refer you to GOOGLE the "US CENSUS".

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Justin:

The US was about 66% white in 2000. If we're going to use statistics can we at least try not to just make them up?

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kerrchdavis:

@Napoleon

Great comment, I think you're spot on. There is a HUGE problem in this country which is the shrinking of the middle class. All our wealth is stuck in the top 1-5% of earners in the country and this CANNOT work in the long run.

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NW Patrick:

nick-socal could you refer me to the electoral map in 2004 showing Kerry up? Kerry did not lead in ANYTHING post convention. Take a look for yourself.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=11

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NW Patrick:

greg in charlotte why does 75% of US GDP reside in Blue States? Anyone?

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nick-socal:

NW Patrick

I did exactly that. This is the break down:

Race/Ethnicity (2007)[124]
White 80.0%
African American 12.8%
Asian 4.4%
Native American and Alaskan Native 1.0%
Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 0.2%
Multiracial 1.6%
Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 15.1%

BZZZZ! Wrong. Even if you go against the Census allowing Hispanics to call themselves white, you've still got 65% white. Hardly what you said.

I'm sorry I hope Obama wins. But I think a lot of Obama supporters are being completely delusional at this point.

MCCAIN WILL WIN BY ~20 ELECTORAL VOTES AND 3.000.000 POPULAR VOTES.

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greg in charlotte:

Who cares.

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Justin:
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NW Patrick:

greg in charlotte is it tough for you living in NC watching all of these "educated" Northerners and internationalists moving into your state to take up the tech jobs? Must be tough watching the state turn LIBERAL before you eyes. It's just a matter of time. I've watched it out west and it's great. Obama within 5% in MONTANA?:) Winning Iowa? Winning Colorado:) It's just a matter of time. Oregon used to go back and forth but I'm happy to report we haven't voted for a Republican since Reagan. Why don't educated populations vote Republican? Makes one wonder.

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Tarp Lazer:

Greg -

You never answered the question. You did exactly what you accused others of doing. You provided no answer to how the policies are the same.

Also, I am really curious why you insist on bragging about your income. You do this almost daily on here. No one really cares. First, you could be lying and no one would know - that is the beauty of the internet. Second, one's income does not make one smarter or "better" than another. In fact, I would argue that it probably equates to you valuing wealth and the material aspects of life over more important things. It has clearly gone to your head or you wouldn't bring it up so often and deride others for not making as much or for not having jobs. For the record, I am in fact employed, and while I do not make as much as you it was due simply to a choice I made to pursue advanced degrees and a life in academia. But thankfully I have to deal with very few people like you on a daily basis with such intelligent banter as "Sarah is sooo hot" and believe the stupidity found at obamacrimes.com.

Since you make so much money and don't have to work, spend this afternoon reading Carl Biden's book on Carter's Economy and then read the info posted on Obama's website. Then come back and talk to me.

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nick-socal:

NW Patrick:

How old are you? Just curious if you were just barely voting age in 2004 or something. All you gotta do is go back and look at the Electoral-Vote map for 2004 as well as search for polls. It was basically tied going into election day AND on election day the exit polls had Kerry winning all day, state after state. Then voila when the polls closed Bush won. Shenanigans, like I said.

And if you're old enough all you gotta do too is reach back in your memory.

I chose not to be delusional about this. Obama will not win. The Republican machine is too strong and Obama is black. It's very easy to understand.

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NW Patrick:

Ummm LOL Nick-SO CALL.

White 80.0% + African American 12.8% + Asian 4.4% + Native American and Alaskan Native 1.0%
+ Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 0.2% +
Multiracial 1.6% +
Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 15.1%

EQUALS like 115% maybe you could come back with statistics that ADD UP?

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Ryan in MO:

@greg..


don't know much about dope in her in MO, although it seems pretty clear about what's in NC there with you. It's pretty clear you can't quite grasp RL (real life). Perhaps 35-40 states is a slight stretch, but McCain dying is very much in reason.

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boomshak:

Is it just me or does Gallup seem VERY VOLATILE for a 3 day tracking poll with an MOE of 2?

In one week he goes from Obama +8 to McCain +5. Then in the hext week he goes from McCain +5 to Obama +5. He has shiften 10 points to Obama in the same time that Rasmussen (very similar sample size) has shifted only 3.

It would really be nice to see his crosstabs. i am willing to bet dollars to donuts that he adjusted his party affiliation weightings to oversample Democrats and that has resulted in this.

If you look at his numbers, these are exactly like all of the other polls that are oversampling Democrats.

For me, I will stick with the most transparent poll of all, Rasmussen. He based his party weightings on 45,000 calls over 6 week and is updating them weekly until election day.

None of this matters now. McCain/Palin are in the zone and Obama is stumbling badly on the financial mess and his close ties to Fannie Mae.

All these pols with their rediuclously biased weightings do is give Obamites a little chubby and a good dose of complacency.

____________________

nick-socal:

NW Patrick why don't you actually read the Census report? I'm not making up these numbers they come from them. You're being really dumb about your argument. The Census allows Hispanics to put two races down (i.e. White and Hispanic). I even allowed for that in your argument. If you take that away, (which why would you when the Census allows for that, it's how Hispanics think of themselves) you've still got 65% whites in America. A far cry from your ~50% argument.

I'm sorry Patrick but you are dead wrong in your argument. In both the demographics and the 2004 polls. Someone above kindly linked to the Electoral-Vote chart.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

Patrick
You are wrong again, most of the people moving here are not that educated to begin with. Most of them are victims of the heavy tax burden from their homes states. They are coming here to Charlotte because a better life and traditional values are inportant to them. We tease them by calling them Yankees, but really really appreciate them and welcome them all. For every new york that moves into my community i personally make $6,000. Attention northerns PLEASE MOVE TO CHARLOTTE. WE LOVE YOU.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Nick So-Cal let's test your "theory". Let's break it down. IOWA. Obama up in some polls as much as 10%. Are ALL these white people in IA LYING to pollsters? LOL What state is WHITER than IOWA? Cmon' man!

I think you should give Americans a little more credit.

____________________

KipTin:

DailyKos looks like it is tracking "registered voters" rather than "likely." Daily Kos and Rasmussen definitely have different political ID weighting and as well as criteria for LIKELY voters.

I think Gallup (RV), Diego (LV) and Rasmussen (LV) are more in line with reality.

This idea that the unreliable youth vote will overtake the reliable older voters is not based on anything but wishful thinking by Obamanation.

____________________

boomshak:

And we see Hotline Tracking has it back to just +1 for Obama.

You know, it just seems to me that Gallup's polling gets this momentum going in one direction and he tends to overshoot for some reason. I don't believe that McCain was ever 5 points ahead and I don't believe he is 5 points behind here.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Really Greg? So all the growth in ATLANTA made it more "conservative?" LOL You're dreamin' buddy.

____________________

nick-socal:

NW Patrick:

No I don't think they're lying. I think Obama will win Iowa by a couple of percentage points. Iowa doesn't get him the presidency. Obama will lose Michigan and Ohio. He'll lose Virginia and Florida. He might squeak by in Pennsylvania. He'll lose Colorado. It still spells a McCain victory by about ~20 EVs.

I'm realistic. You're setting yourself up to be very disappointed.

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak HOTLINES a LIBERAL poll remember? LOL

____________________

boomshak:

@NW Patrick,

Actually I said that they were overweighting Democrats in their earlier poll. They have no polling link here so I can't tell whether they are still doing so.

____________________

jamesia:

Hispanics are usually grouped within the Caucasian category in statistics, as are Middle Easterners. That probably explains the 115% when Hispanics account for 15%.

Obama's ground game is more powerful than McCain's. I imagine the debates will shift a lot of momentum toward Obama going into the final weeks. The Democrats' gains in voter registrations shouldn't be underestimated either. Once a person registers/votes for a candidate of one party, they usually stick with that party for a long time. If Obama's GOTV really works the way it's hyped, he really could be making a generational movement toward Democratic control. It doesn't help that the last 30 years was largely Republican control, a lot of that time was complete Republican domination... and now look where we are. Not a partisan comment.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

Patrick
You are a bitter little man.

____________________

nick-socal:

jamesia:
I agree with you BUT I'm not convinced Obama's ground game is really all that great. My belief is that it's way overhyped. The Republicans have a superb ground game. Only theirs is more about subverting voters, not getting them out to vote.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

nick-social is the only one on here that has any real sense

____________________

boomshak:

The thing you folks may not be getting right here is that McCain and Palin are really finding their voices right now.

Palin was awesome with Hannity and McCain gave the best speech today I have ever heard him give, by far. It was like he took friggin genius pills or something. I literally was in shock.

Also, his ads are spot on right now. factual, forceful. Really good.

Add to that the fact that Obama has punted on what his approach to the current financial crisis will be (until he sees how things work out so he can get on the winning side) while Mccain has laid out a very clear strategy.

Once again, on the tough vote, Obama votes "present".

let me put it this way, if McCain debates Obama the way he spoke today, Obama is gonna be in a world of hurt.

____________________

palinisbushwithlipstick:

please don't feed the trolls like boomshat. they still believe in creationism and that palin is "qualified". LOL.


Just for everyone's amusement, more retarded blatherings from the idiot herself-


http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/quote-for-th-24.html


Good Lord. After that craptastic excrement, I now fully expect her to utter something along the lines of:

"Um, like such as ...the Iraq ....and the maps for South Africa...um like such as..."

____________________

NW Patrick:

Nick-So cal. LOL you need to learn. Maybe leave SO CAL for a while. Obama will carry EVERY SINGLE Kerry state. He'll pick up Colorado, NM, and IA. I know Colorado. Have you studied their congressional or governal elections as of late? HUGE hispanic population, youthful population, HIGHLY educated population in and around Boulder/Denver, It's bad news for McCain MY FRIEND.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/bad-math-and-bradley-effect.html

____________________

nick-socal:

jamesia:
Also, that's exactly why it explains the 115% PER the Census. Because Hispanics are included as whites. There are 15% Hispanics, hence 115% with NW Patrick's fuzzy math.

He's to deliriously caught up in this Gallup poll to understand the facts.

____________________

boomshak:

RCP Average has Obama +1.9 now which is probably close.

____________________

jamesia:

Greg:
Interesting that you'd agree with Nick, as what he's essentially saying is that Republicans are good mostly at voter subversion. As in: they're good at voter fraud. It's not something to be proud of. That'd be the reason for the recent MI Democratic Party's lawsuit.

Nick:
I was a student in Cincinnati during the primaries. I saw the Obama ground game first hand. It's nothing to sneeze at, especially considering Ohio's new early voting laws. As in the primaries, Obama will have 8 or so coach buses at every campus, ready to take students to register then vote. We're talking a massively under-sampled population. There were 9500-11000 students at Obama's rally in Cincinnati. The school in Columbus is more than double the size of Cincinnati's.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

Boomshak
I totally agree, Sarah was incredible. When Americans learn about her the more they will love her.
Sarah has ended the political careers of Romney, Huckabee, Thompson, Guiliani, Obama and Biden

____________________

nick-socal:

NW Patrick, why must you insult me with things you don't know. You have no clue if I'm even in socal. I told you that you're argument was dumb, not you. And you can't even admit that you were wrong about the demographics of the U.S.

This is a problem I see with a lot of hardcore supporters on both sides. They fail to see the facts in front of them. I am a Democrat and support Obama, but I am also a realist.

As for this argument about the debates: I don't think Obama is going to hit grand slams like everyone else thinks he will. Obama is articulate, well spoken, etc. But he won't be giving a speech here and a lot of times his explanation is nuanced and hard for the average person to grasp right away.

Look for the debates to be dead even. Look for the election to be dead even on Election day. Look for McCain to pull out the win on Election Day.

____________________

nick-socal:

jamesia:
I sure hope you're right and thank you for the first hand account.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

Jamesia
I don't agree with nick on the canidates. But nick is realistic on his electoral projections. That I appreciate.

____________________

palinisbushwithlipstick:

greg - ROTFLMAO @ YOU!! That had to be THE funniest post EVER. I mean, Ever!

Good God, you should go on tour with that routine. You would be hailed as a comedic genius. Great joke, my friend, great joke.

____________________

nick-socal:

And if I'm wrong I will be happy and be the first one to come here and admit it

____________________

greg in charlotte:

Thank You lipstick you are very generous with your words.

____________________

jamesia:

People are just caught up in the polls, that's all. My own opinion is that Ras is off. They've shown a tie for the last couple days, whereas every other pollster shows Obama gains. It's probably just a hard election to poll. O's got the edge though. It'll be tough; I'm guessing the last couple weeks we'll see some really nasty racist campaigning.

I watched both the Democratic & Republican primary debates, since I'm not registered with either party. Obama will win any sort of debating. He faced down Hillary, and she is very very good. McCain is just difficult to listen to. He's a slime bag, but it should have been Romney as the VP and not Palin. The Republicans had a really crappy selection this year. I've always thought that McCain didn't win the primary, he was simply the last man standing... everyone else caved, and Huckabee didn't know anything about foreign policy.

____________________

boomshak:

As I suspected, Hotline is tightening because they are using a more realistic party affiliation weighting:

Today's survey, conducted 9/16-18 by FD, surveyed 915 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

This is equivalent to what Rasmussen uses and polls are almost identical.

This supports my contention that this race is basically tied and all the polls showing Obama ahead outside the margin of error are using a bad weighting.

If you apply Rasmussen's weightings to all of these polls, they all fall to within a point of dead even.

____________________

Justin:

As I already suggested, there is a fair chance Hotline tightened today because 9/15 dropped out of the poll. When 9/15 entered the 3 day poll, it swung 3 points to Obama, when it dropped it swung 3 to McCain.

____________________

Justin:

p.s. Hotline has been using the same weighing since the 14th.

____________________

cmbat:

@greg-

People like you who know so little, talk so much, and only respond to people with insults are the problem with our country, and the fact that you all fall on the Right is what has driven us to these depths. Your knowledge of the world is so tiny. You've been in real estate for 20 years and make $100k? Wow. Top notch. I'd think if someone did a sales profession for 20 years, they'd do a little better. It's hard for anyone to take you seriously, it seems your just a paid McBush troll, and we all know it. Palin was good on Hannity? Are you freaking kidding? What an embarrassment. Why do you want McBush to tell you how he would handle the crisis today? The Treasury and Fed will take action long before he comes into office. Isn't it his job to shut up and prove that he has the background and the strength to deal with these issues AS THEY LAY OUT if he were to get into office (which he never will)? He's flip-flopped so many times on tax cuts, regulation, bail-outs...why would I care what he says about this week's crisis? This is over and it has been over. Obama will kill him in the debates, and there will be no looking back. I'm assuming you won't want to live here anymore, so pack your bags. We won't miss you.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

Its the States polls that count.

Iowa and New Mexico go blue, Kerry States retained and pick any one of many and Obama wins.

Personally I think Obama will win VA, OH and CO.

McCain is unelectible even more so because of Palin. Just watch those trends on Rasmussen, I know you believe in his polling!

This afternoon Obama trumped McCain on the economic crisis and supported the Administration in a Bipartisan approach which is what you'd expect a Statesman to do.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wow did anyone look at the #'s in the latest IA poll. Obama up 12 who cares, the real story is up 20% among WOMEN.

____________________

marctx:

BREAKING NEWS... Obama spokesman and lead investigator Hollis French announced that he was determined to get the "tasergate" report out before the election for maximum political impact. However, since none of the witnessed showed up today. He will have to "make-up" the details. developing....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080919/ap_on_el_pr/palin_troopergate;_ylt=AutY9L89YzqS.bvEus9TR2yyFz4D

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful,

"This afternoon Obama trumped McCain on the economic crisis and supported the Administration in a Bipartisan approach which is what you'd expect a Statesman to do."

You truly are delusional. Obama trumped McCain on the financial crisis by saying he has no plan?

ROFLMAO!

As for these state polls, they are all over the place. You see two polls coming out the same day in CO, one has Obama +1 and the other has him +10.

I mean c'mon. They are prety much worthless guesses.

____________________

atreides:

Of course the elephant in the room as far as Rasmussen goes is what percent of the AA vote is he eliminating. If he doesn't have the AA turnout at the same as Caucasian turnout then that's just negligent. You McCain supporter keep harping about party affiliation weight. Well you got your way. But if you're going to do an LV model, why would you use 2004 or 2006 numbers when you know that they are most certainly wrong? Are you concerned about that or do you just want a poll that shows the most favorable for McCain?

____________________

Justin:

Does anyone else find it somehow fitting that the Palin Administration is abusing it's power to delay an abuse of power investigation?

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak
Fantasy President a new game starring John S McCain!

A presidential candidate putting out an alternative plan at a time of national emergency, which this economic crisis is, has to be a complete idiot or a fool, and McCain seems to be both.

What is the point of recklessly, impulsively charging in when the nation is in turmoil and of course the great deregulator himself has a regulotory plan of what and why, are we playing Fantasy President or something?

This is a time to be Bipartisan show leadership calm the markets. Plays politics!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Marctx nice way to ruin a headline and add your TEXAS spin. LOL I'm glad he's putting the report out. Hmmm I wonder why the PALIN-mccain administration is fighting this investigation so hard? I know. Because from everything I've read in LOCAL ALASKA publicationsm, they have quite a bit of evidence against the MAVERICK:)

____________________

NW Patrick:

But I shouldn't be surprised...what would a Republican administration be without a scandal? We wouldn't recognize it.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Anyone know where Spain is located? McCain has me all confused.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran

____________________

marctx:

Spain? Is that Obama's 58th state?

Anyway, I think the McCain campaign should counter the Obama campaign probe into Sarah Palin with an investigation into whether Obama committed treason when he tried to convince the Iraq government to delay the decision regarding troop withdrawal.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@NW

I think Spain is located in Mexico. That's what I heard a senator say yesterday...

____________________

Mike Farrace:

This is for NW Patrick, in case he hasn't seen it. It'll make some people squirm, but it's dead-on.

PS: I'm white, too.

Mike

This is Your Nation on White Privilege (Be advised: coarse language quoted in 3rd graph)

By Tim Wise (white guy) http://www.redroom.com/blog/tim-wise/this-your-nation-white-

For those who still can’t grasp the concept of white privilege, or who are constantly looking for some easy-to-understand examples of it, perhaps this list will help.

White privilege is when you can get pregnant at seventeen like Bristol Palin and everyone is quick to insist that your life and that of your family is a personal matter, and that no one has a right to judge you or your parents, because “every family has challenges,” even as black and Latino families with similar “challenges” are regularly typified as
irresponsible, pathological and arbiters of social decay.

White privilege is when you can call yourself a “f--kin’ redneck,” like Bristol Palin’s boyfriend does, and talk about how if anyone messes with you, you'll “kick their f--kin' ass,” and talk about how you like to “shoot s--t” for fun, and still be viewed as a responsible, all-American boy (and a great son-in-law to be) rather than a thug.

White privilege is when you can attend four different colleges in six years like Sarah Palin did (one of which you basically failed out of, then returned to after making up
some coursework at a community college), and no one questions your intelligence or commitment to achievement, whereas a person of color who did this would be viewed as unfit for college, and probably someone who only got in in the first place because of affirmative action.

White privilege is when you can claim that being mayor of a town smaller than most medium-sized colleges, and then Governor of a state with about the same number of people as
the lower fifth of the island of Manhattan, makes you ready to potentially be president, and people don’t all piss on themselves with laughter, while being a black U.S. Senator,
two-term state Senator, and constitutional law scholar, means you’re “untested.”

White privilege is being able to say that you support the words “under God” in the pledge of allegiance because “if it was good enough for the founding fathers, it’s good enough
for me,” and not be immediately disqualified from holding office--since, after all, the pledge was written in the late 1800s and the “under God” part wasn’t added until the 1950s--while believing that reading accused criminals and terrorists their rights (because, ya know, the Constitution, which you used to teach at a prestigious law school
requires it), is a dangerous and silly idea only supported by mushy liberals.

White privilege is being able to be a gun enthusiast and not make people immediately scared of you.

White privilege is being able to have a husband who was a member of an extremist political party that wants your state to secede from the Union, and whose motto was “Alaska first,” and no one questions your patriotism or that of your family, while if you're black and your spouse merely fails to come to a 9/11 memorial so she can be home with her kids on the first day of school, people immediately think she’s being disrespectful.

White privilege is being able to make fun of community organizers and the work they do--like, among other things, fight for the right of women to vote, or for civil rights,
or the 8-hour workday, or an end to child labor--and people think you’re being pithy and tough, but if you merely question the experience of a small town mayor and 18-month
governor with no foreign policy expertise beyond a class she took in college--you’re somehow being mean, or even sexist.

White privilege is being able to convince white women who don’t even agree with you on any substantive issue to vote for you and your running mate anyway, because all of a sudden your presence on the ticket has inspired confidence in these same white women, and made them give your party a “second look.”

White privilege is being able to fire people who didn’t support your political campaigns and not be accused of abusing your power or being a typical politician who engages in favoritism, while being black and merely knowing some folks from the old-line political machines in Chicago means you must be corrupt.

White privilege is being able to attend churches over the years whose pastors say that people who voted for John Kerry or merely criticize George W. Bush are going to hell, and
that the U.S. is an explicitly Christian nation and the job of Christians is to bring Christian theological principles into government, and who bring in speakers who say the conflict in the Middle East is God’s punishment on Jews for rejecting Jesus, and everyone can still think you’re just a good church-going Christian, but if you’re black and friends with a black pastor who has noted (as have Colin Powell and the U.S. Department of Defense) that terrorist attacks are often the result of U.S. foreign policy and who talks about the history of racism and its effect on black people, you’re an extremist who probably hates America.

White privilege is not knowing what the Bush Doctrine is when asked by a reporter, and then people get angry at the reporter for asking you such a “trick question,” while being black and merely refusing to give one-word answers to the queries of Bill O’Reilly means you’re dodging the question, or trying to seem overly intellectual and nuanced.

White privilege is being able to claim your experience as a POW has anything at all to do with your fitness for president, while being black and experiencing racism is, as Sarah Palin has referred to it a “light” burden.

And finally, white privilege is the only thing that could possibly allow someone to become president when he has voted with George W. Bush 90 percent of the time, even as
unemployment is skyrocketing, people are losing their homes, inflation is rising, and the U.S. is increasingly isolated from world opinion, just because white voters aren’t sure about that whole “change” thing. Ya know, it’s just too vague and ill-defined, unlike, say, four more years of the same, which is very concrete and certain…

White privilege is, in short, the problem.


gchw speaking here: And this evening on MSNBC's Rachel Maddow Show, Bill Maher said, "The reason they hate isn't because of our freedom, it's because we bomb them."


Film reviews by Gary Chew are a feature
of The Peter B. Collins' Show on:

KKGN 960 San Francisco, CA
KRXA 540 Monterey, CA
KGOE 1480 Eureka, CA
KBBR 1340 Coos Bay, OR
KPOJ 620 Portland, OR
KBSR 1490 Laurel, MT
KMPT 930 Missoula, MT
KPTK 1090 Seattle, WA

And on KVMR's Evening News
at 89.5 FM in Nevada City, CA

Also online at:
www.tulsatvmemories.com
www.humortimes.com and under
External Reviews at www.IMDb.com

____________________

marctx:

Politics as usual...

So non-partisan poser Obama forces Hillary to withdraw from the Iran protest rally then applies serious pressure for the group to dis-invite Gov. Palin? When you are going to bring people together Obama??? Looks like you're keeping them apart! Shame on you Barack Obama, Shame on you!

____________________

Tybo:

kerrchdavis:
bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran


bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Pakistan

____________________

Tybo:

Justin:
Does anyone else find it somehow fitting that the Palin Administration is abusing it's power to delay an abuse of power investigation?

Does anyone find is somehow fitting that the democratic party is abusing it's power by taking over the investigation instead of allowing the agreed upon investigator do his job?

____________________

marctx:

NW Patrick:

"Marctx nice way to ruin a headline and add your TEXAS spin"

So you must of believed it was the actual headline for minute there. Explains why this story has no legs. You can't have the lead investigator appearing in pictures at Obama rallies on stage no less. Then, promise an October surprise and think the investigation is anything other than an Obama hijacked investigation.

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

@boomshak:

Hate to burst your bubble again, but Obama won the day because McCain spent most of it trying to explain why it’s a good idea to privatize social security. There’s a brilliant strategy.

Besides, the party in power has run the Ship of State aground, John “Lil’ Napoleon” McCain wants to elbow his way to the helm to keep the ship going in the same direction, and you’re blaming the guy who wasn’t a member of the crew for wanting to check things out a little before suggesting a new course.

As Thoughtful and others have said, that’s true statesmanship and true leadership. You just don’t recognize it because George “Cowboy” Bush and Dick “Dickhead” Cheney have been running the government most of your adult life.

____________________

Tybo:

cmbat wrote to another poster

"People like you who know so little, talk so much, "

and then he wrote on and on..

____________________

thoughtful:
____________________

marctx:

A little less punch for Palin interview part 2...

CABLE NEWS RACE
THU, SEPT. 18, 2008

FOXNEWS HANNITY/COLMES 4,589,000
FOXNEWS O'REILLY 4,092,000
FOXNEWS GRETA 3,286,000
FOXNEWS SHEP SMITH 1,986,000
MSNBC RACHEL MADDOW 1,971,000
MSNBC OLBERMANN 1,947,000
FOXNEWS HUME 1,903,000
CNN KING 1,855,000
CNN COOPER 1,852,000
CNNHN GRACE 1,204,000
CNN DOBBS 1,121,000
MSNBC HARDBALL 944,000

____________________

boomshak:

You know, it really is sad to go to the websites of CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, The Washington Post, NYTimes and Wallstreet Journal and see every single one completely and utterly in the tank for Obama.

I mean it is rediculous. Every single article is a blistering, biased attack on McCain/Palin straight from the DNC and NEVER a single critical word about Obama.

The MSM has decided that no matter what, the Socialist Demigod Obama WILL win. They don't even pretend to be unbiased.

No wonder all of their viewerships is in the tank and FoxNews is #1 in everything by a mile.

But it won't work. America isn't listening to the MSM anymore. They have lost all credibility. I can't wait for election night as we watch the talking heads on MSNBC sit there speechless and the news that McCain has won comes in.

____________________

boomshak:

@marctx:

" little less punch for Palin interview part 2..."

Huh? Palin part 2 had 400,000 moree viewers than part 1. God look at that pathetic Hardball viewership. Do they actually pay him?

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

You cite Hagel again? I told you, Republican DESPISE Hagel. He has his head shoves so far up Obama's ass he can see his tonsils.

Why the heck should we believe HIS account?

Fail.

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak, could you provide a SOURCE showing Republicans "hating" Hagel?

Also, I'm still waiting for your explanation of the largest deficit in the history of the world by the US. Could you let me know how the Republicans have managed this?

____________________

Tybo:

citing hagel is the same as citing lieberman.

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak you have to remember the media are members of society too and they have also lived through the absolute nightmare of the past 8 years. What have the thugs done? Fiscal responsibility? NADA. Win the war in Iraq? Oh wait, we don't know who the enemy is, so there is no end. Did they make the US a beacon of hope and respect around the world? NO. LOL What have they done? NAME ONE THING.

____________________

boomshak:

@Tybo:

Next thing you know, they will be citing Olympia Snowe.

Here is a tip for you libs. The second a Republican sees the name "Hagel" in an article, we automatically assume everything that follows will be a lie.

I mean, hell, why is Hagel even a Republican? He votes with Democrats on EVERYTHING.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boom

You'd rather believe the Iraqi and the NY Post? You are twisted!

don't be an Idiot!

____________________

boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

You have no idea what you are doing. Obama will turn America into a Socialist State. You are a fool.

But it doesn't matter, America will not elect a socialist.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I just sit here AMAZED at some of these people. marctx I have to admit I have an opinion of people in red states already and you only further it. Could you let me know YOUR SOURCE for your claim that OBAMA made Hillary cancel her appearance? I'm waiting. See EDUCATED people make claims based on fact. You know, like when a Republican claims fiscal responsibility then runs up the largest deficit in the history of any country that's ever been on the face of the earth. That's fact. So please, send me the "SOURCE" for your TX smear. I'm waiting.

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful,

Hagel is and always has been a complete traitor to his party. WHY should I believe a word he says?

Would you listen to what Lieberman says about Obama?

____________________

boomshak:

Here's a question for Obamatites.

Barack Obama has said he will raise the income taxe rate on Small Business Owners to 56%.

In your opinion, will this massive confiscation of profits create or lose jobs?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Mike Farrace great post on white privelage. It's so true, the double standard. I've seen that piece but thanks for sharing it again for the idiots. And NC hillbilly, Obama's a SOCIALIST? ROFL Gosh, I do remember them saying that about Bill Clinton and THAT SOCIALIST only turned the economy around and left us with a managable federal budget. I'm STILL waiting for you to NAME ONE Rethuglican accomplishment over the past 8 years. JuST ONE. WAITING....... (I have 43 min. left of work so hurry.) You know us liberals, I'll be out with my gay friends later at a Greek restuarant breaking plates... then tomorrow I'm gonna watch some football.) Ya see, we're not scared of life. We live it, together, with EVERYONE:)

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak here is a question. Does the largest debt in the history of world nations HELP OR HURT the US Dollar and our standing around the world? How about 50,000,000 Americans without healthcare? Is that a HEALTHY nation? DO TELL. And also, why does EVERY industrialized nation in the entire world take care of their own with healthcare and the "BEST" nation on earth does not? I'm so curious!

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak..question. Name ONE THING Republicans have done to REDUCE the # of abortions in the US? ONE THING.

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak - Do you have the statistic on the AVERAGE income of a small business in the US? Serious question. Not being smart, although I am VERY smart:)

____________________

Paul:

As to Gallup, they use a three day rolling average. For the last five days, Obama's poll numbers have been 45-46-47-48-49. That means the most recent one day poll had to be at least 50. Unfortunately, the demographics Gallup posts are a week old.

As to Daily Kos, if the 2004 exit poll frequencies are applied, the Obama lead would vary. Based on gender - Obama up 8; based on age - Obama up 6; based on region - Obama up 8.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Why do Republicans all go back to the TAX TAX TAX argument when they are desperate? LOL
Under Clinton my taxes WERE THE SAME, but hmmm the US Economy was on fire. So many indicators, no denying Thugs!

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

@NW Patrick:

Don't bother arguing with boomshak about economic or tax policy. He keeps trotting out this 56% tax on small business owners but he doesn't have a clue what marginal rates are and what lifting the cap on the Social Security payroll deductions really means. If he really is running his own business he needs to find a better accountant.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Napoleon Complex I'm just having fun with him. He is an A-typical thug. They use the same worn out arguments OVER and OVER and OVER.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boom

Did you that every country in the European Union including Spain has health care for all its citizens, indeed even American vistitors should they fall ill?

Did you that there is not one single country in Europe that has the Death Penalty?

This is a sign of a strong affluent and civilized society rather than the socialism that you seem to be confused with.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wow. New Projections and great point about McCain taking 60 days to rid a 5 point Obama lead. Obama got that back in 5 days:)

From Nate at: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Let's not equivocate too much here. Over the course of the past several days, there has been a rather dramatic shift in this election toward Barack Obama. Our trendline estimate, which is engineered to be fairly conservative, registers the swing as equaling roughly 4 points over the course of the past week.

Changes of this velocity are unusual outside of the convention periods and the debates, especially in close elections. It took John McCain about 60 days and tens of millions of advertising dollars to whittle Obama's lead down from roughly 5 points at its peak in early June, to the 1-point lead that Obama held heading into the conventions. Obama has swing the numbers that much in barely a week.

Of course, we never really were entirely outside of gravitational field of the conventions, and probably at least half of this bounceback for Obama is merely the more-or-less inevitable consequence of McCain's convention bounce ending. But the fact is that Obama is in a stronger position now than he was immediately before the conventions. We now have him winning the election 71.5 percent of the time, which is about as high as that number has been all year.

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thoughtful:

NW Patrick

I got rather excited reading Nat's take too! He has Obama at 303 EVs!

____________________

boomshak:

Man, even Pollster is biased towards Obama. I have noticed that about 95% of all the "Latest Developments" are either pro-Obama or anti-McCain.

I mean, hell, how the heck can Obama NOT be up by 20 points with this absolute adoration by the press. How can this thing be tied?

One guy gets all good press and one guy gets all negative press, but they are tied? God Obama must suck as a candidate.

____________________

boomshak:

@Napoleon Complex:
@NW Patrick:

"Don't bother arguing with boomshak about economic or tax policy. He keeps trotting out this 56% tax on small business owners but he doesn't have a clue what marginal rates are and what lifting the cap on the Social Security payroll deductions really means. If he really is running his own business he needs to find a better accountant."

Lol, you moron, I own a small business and know exactly how double-taxation on SS works for me.

Geesh you are an idiot.

If Obama is elected, after paying Federal and State Taxes, I will get to keep 35% of what i make.

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak you are on crack. 35% of what you make? GIVE ME A BREAK. I WORK IN REAL ESTATE, yes, self employed. If you are paying 65% in taxes WITH ANY administration then you should immediately FIRE your accountant. You can write off your broker split, your MLS dues, advertising, gas, office in your home, some food, NAR dues, other expenses. Did you n eed the # to my accountant?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Hey, I just want 270. I'm not greedy! And we will get it. All Kerry states WILL remain blue and Obama will win Colarado, IA, and NM. That's the LEAST case scenario it's looking more and more like. Remember folks, every day that goes by from this point forward the more accurate the good pollsters are. Less room for fluctuation.

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Bigmike:

When McCain went up in the polls, you heard a liot of "that is just support firming in the already red states." How come we don't hear that about Obama now? Most site I have looked at show no gains for Obama in EV's.

As for all Kerry states remaining blue, I don't buy that. I know PA looks more in play all of the time. Same with MN and WI.

I am not seeing anything for either side to gloat over.

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NW Patrick:

Bigmike you're also on crack. Almost every reputable EV site shows Obama winning with no leaning states. He's in command. HAVE A GREAT weekend. Let's do it again next week!

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Bigmike:

So much for my typing. TGIF!

To clarify, I see no gains for Obama in EV over where he was in the last 1-2 weeks, even tho the popular beauty pagent is moving a little his way. I would not argue that he is up in IA and NM and ever so slightly in CO. Those would all be pickups over the Kerry 04 states.

No way I concede all of the Kerry 04 states if I am McCain. The Univ. of Wisc released a bunch of polls today. I don't have MOE or any details at this time. But I do know it is a liberal haven, so if they are biased, it is not to the right. Lets five them the benefit of the doubt, without more info, and go with unbiased.

IA M 45 O 45
IN M 47 O 43
MI M 44 O 48
MN M 45 O 47
OH M 45 O 46
PA M 45 O 45
WI M 44 O 45

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Bigmike:

NW Patrick

You are abviously mistaking my Coca Cola for coke of another kind.

Maybe I should have clarified that I mean CREDIBLE sites. To say there are no leaners at this time is ridiculous. Several are within MOE, so you cannot put them in either column. I believe the home page on this site shows McCain 208, Obama 202. Lets at least agree this one is credible or we wouldn't be posting comments here.

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slinky:

The race is still very close.

The economic mess demonstrates how incompetent Bush is.

He should have rolled back the tax breaks on Sept. 12, 2001, and asked all Americans to sacrifice (not go shopping).

The new Socialist economy will devalue the American dollar against the Euro and the Yuan.

We are screwed for the foreseeable future.

The girlie doesn't even understand it.

It almost doesn't matter.

I don't know how we will ever get out of it.

It's pretty much of a complete lose-lose-lose.

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boomshak:

Murdoch: Obama's economic policies are 'naive'

http://www.thrfeed.com/2008/09/murdoch-obamas.html

News Corp. chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch said he doesn't regret the New York Post endorsing John McCain, even as some say the Republican ticket is the weaker choice for voters concerned about the economy.

"I am very worried," Murdoch said during an interview Friday with Fox Business Network. "I like Sen. Obama very much. I have met him. He is a very intelligent man. But his policy of anti-globalization, protectionism, is going to be -- and card checks -- are going to do two or three things. It's going to give us a lot of inflation. They're going to ruin our relationships with the rest of the world. And they are going to slow down the rest of the world, too. And they're going to make people frightened to add to employment. You are going to find companies leaving this country if it's -- if you put a protectionist wall around it. You're going to get -- his policy is really very, very naive, old-fashioned, 1960s."

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boomshak:

Don't you stupid libs think the Democratically controlled Congress is responsible for ANYTHING?

I mean, what are they even there if they don't take any responsibility.

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boomshak:

Despite a complete 24/7 BJ from the press, this dog is tied. Wow, Obama sucks!

____________________

slinky:

There's blame enough to go around, but, at this point, none of that matters.

The American dollar has been devalued. The government is using a Socialist solution to a gigantic problem without saying so; and the fundamental problem has not been solved.

SEC and FTC must be empowered to act forcefully; people must go to jail; accounting rules must be enforced; and it is because none of the latter are occurring that Wall Street is rallying.

Wall Street should not be rallying. Thieves must not be rewarded: Else they will steal again.

____________________

boomshak:

Lol, Obama is calling the McCain ad about him voting for killing aborted babies born aline a "despicable lie".

The evidence is clear he voted for that - the man makes me sick.

____________________

slinky:

Voted for what? To kill babies? You are disgusting. I can say so from a physician's view.

You have no idea what you are talking about and you talk about it anyway. Just shut up Boomer.

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zotz:

Slinky-
Their strategy is to spew as much vomit as they can on Obama. If you throw enough crap against the wall some of it will stick.

Truth is not relevant anymore.

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metsmets:

@Boomshak
Take a break. You need a rest. Your last two posts were weak. You are way too smart to post these kinds of rantings. I know you're depressed by the multitude of polls that show a trend for Obama but rest assured Rasmussen will be the last one there!
We liberals are confused by the current SOCIALIST president - state ownership of mortgages, state ownership of banking and money market funds. Where's Hugo Chavez??
All I wanted was socialised medicine!

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metsmets:

@GreginCharlotte
You mention "traditional values" as being a virtue of NC. Care to list them? I may be mistaken but I was told by my liberal friends that "traditional values" was a smokescreen for hiding behind the fact that you don't like folks that are different from you. Correct me. I'm waiting!

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zotz:

He means segragation and strict enforcement of Jim Crow laws.

Seriously, he said a couple days ago that this country would never allow a black to become president.

____________________

boomshak:

You know, I believe we are about to see the nastiest, most vile, hateful campaign in history.

If a week out from the election, this thing is close or Mccain is ahead, I expect the MSM and the Moonbats to lose their minds.

They have so much pent up anger from 2000 when Gore got beat fair and square and they are ready to explode.

If McCain wins, I really do fear violence in the streets, riots, murders. I mean these moonbat supporters of Obama are dangerous. Not all of them, just the far left fringe whackos.

It will be a wild ride. Expect it to get ugly.

____________________

boomshak:

@metsmets:

Lol, rantings? My posts are the truth, of which there is little in this bastion of liberals.

The RCP Average has Obama +1.9 and that includes many polls with a bad sample. There are 4 ties in the RCP Average.

Obama had a little bounce due to the economic thing but his response has been pathetic.

This time next week, McCain up by 2 Rasmussen.

____________________

zotz:

Boomshak- Would you like to comment on this story?

The TIMES OF LONDON owned by Murdoch reported that Palin's pastor actually hunted witches, LITERALLY A WITCH, when he was an evangelical preacher in Kenya. Palin has credited this pastor's prayers in helping her get elected as governor of AK!
http://timesonline.typepad.com/uselections/2008/09/palin-linked-el.html

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common sense:

It seems to me that a lot of McCain's support comes from not a regard for him but a dislike and or fear of the alternative. Obama's support appears to be driven by enthusiam. GOP loyalists at heart do not like McCain. Obama's suporters believe in him. He has that magical characteristic called "Charisma". Admittedley charisma alone does not qualify someone for a position of leadership. It does help you to get elected. McCain has the charisma of a meatloaf. That is why he will lose.

____________________

NW Patrick:

When Bush took office he gave BILLIONS in tax cuts to the wealthy including corporations. They made great profits. In the meantime, incomes fell, the costs of living dramatically increased, food, gas, housing, energy, EVERYTHING went up. He has increased the federal deficit to HISTORIC highs. Still believe trickle down economics works? With all of those TAX CUTS, where are the new jobs? 100,000 jobs lost last month? But but I thought companies trickle down all that wealth to the little people? Hmmm.... I'm so confused. How come there is never PROOF to substantiate this economic way of thinking? It's ALWAYS disaster. And now, the TAX payers, are being given another 1.5 TRILLIAN in potential debt. Thanks THUGS!

Why can't Republicans understand basic math. How can you CUT taxes to the wealthy and spend so much money bailing out corporations for your lack of regulation with federal money, coming in at a lesser rate due to your "tax" cuts. What a joke!

Do you really wanna do this, again, America for 8 more years? WOW.

____________________

NW Patrick:

BOOM we'll hold ya to it! This time next week..Friday..McCain up 2? Wanna bet?

____________________

thirdparty:

boomshak: "Barack Obama has said he will raise the income taxe rate on Small Business Owners to 56%."

That is a bald-faced distortion. Under Obama's plan, small business owners which earn revenues which put them into the top marginal income tax bracket will pay 39.6% on the revenues OVER the tax threshold, plus a payroll tax of 15.6%. As you would be well aware, it is a PROGRESSIVE marginal tax rate system, which means that all earnings under the top threshold would most certainly NOT be taxed at that rate.

In fact, under the current system, high-earning small business owners already pay 50.3% on their top bracket of revenues (35% marginal tax rate + 15.3% payroll tax). Makes the 56% number seem not so big, hmmm? You may like to trot out that 56% number, but in doing so you make a whole lot of distortions and omissions.

In conclusion: Obama's plan means 98.6% of small businesses will pay either FEWER taxes or the same taxes under Obama's plan, because only those businesses earning among the top two brackets per annum will see any sort of tax increase (and they account for only 1.4% of all small businesses). And if you're earning that much, you're probably getting to the stage of where it's no longer really a "small" business.

____________________

marctx:

FYI - I was born and lived half my life in Cali before I moved to Texas. I only recently turned moderate. I know about the Texas jokes. I listened to them for many years.

I'm one of Hardballs tiny audience. Did you see Tucker destroy the "tasergate" scandal. Wow, he said it is was nonsense because she should have fired him. He tasered her 10 year old nephew, drank beer in his police vehicle, and threaten to harm her father. Go Tucker. That's why he lost his show. He's honest.

____________________

metsmets:

@Boomshak
Are you yet prepared to admit that Tom Ridge would have been a better VP pick? PA would be better for McCain than Alaska. Come on, the old Republicans would have come around anyway.

Look, there is a chance - admit it - that Barack might become the first AA in US History. I think that speaks tremendous things about opportunity in this country. A father from Kenya - a white mother from Kansas and raised in Hawaii. You may dislike his politics as much as I loathe this current President but he is only 45 days away from achieving that goal.
Don't wory about us liberals - I worry about you conservatives finding yourselves in the wilderness for four years. By the way, we are trying to think bipartisan but we are more inclined to the "a plague on their house" approach right now! Keep your fingers crossed for that +2 for McCain. LOL.

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common sense:

Another reflection : Can a McCain supporter explain to me how he he has transformed himself from a free market advocate to a Socialist? Please - I dare you.

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boomshak:

@metsmets:

Dude, Obama has every conceivable advatnage in this election and IT IS FRIGGIN TIED!

Any other pick and McCain would be 10 points down here.

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slinky:

I think people are not taking in the reality of America becoming a Socialist state by accident.

This is not a planned economy thing, folks.

This is rescue of capitalism on account of profound failure.

Unfortunately, it is the capitalists rescuing themselves using the national treasury to do it.

So, it would appear to be socialism, but its actually much closer to capitalist anarchy, or imperial appropriation of the national economy.

The main problem with it in the immediate term is that the Chinese and Arabs, who hold very large sums of American currency, are going to have a hard time redeeming them; which could cause a liquidity crisis, the likes of which you have never seen.

This is not a fantasy. We are in deep, deep dog poop.

You cannot convert a capitalist economy to socialist without enormous pain to the vast majority of the people.

The next few weeks are only the beginning of this pain.

And, this pain will not respect whoever is elected President.

____________________

marctx:

Liberals try to ignore that it was John McCain that introduced legislation in 2005 to regulate these banks and with his superior judgment predicted that this was going to happen. Its on the record. HIS RECORD!

Not just his words. Just words.

Obama repeats that often "just words". This is Obama's entire campaign. "Just Words".

____________________

slinky:

@boomshak

It's not a surprise to any of us that America is filled with racists.

We will just have to see if it has so many racists that it can't make the obvious choice of the better man for President.

____________________

slinky:

John McCain permitted Bush to extend tax cuts that are so out of touch, and so much at the core of this crisis, that you have no idea what you are writing about.

____________________

boomshak:

@thirdparty:

Your analysis is wrong at every level.

Under Obama's plan, I would pay SS tax on ALL my income instead of just up to $97,500. This amounts to a huge sum. $250,000 - 97,500 * 15.6% = $23,790 in extra taxes on that alone!

You are claiming that only 1.4% of small business owners make over $250,000???? Are you kidding? ALL of my friends that own small businesses (including myself) make WAY over $250,000. Why even bother having a business unless you can make that much?

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slinky:

we feel so sorry that you will have to pay your fair share of FICA, boomy.

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common sense:

Boom - You appear to be a sharp guy. You obviously care a lot about this election or you wouldn't be posting so often. Please tell me a liitle bit more about yourself. Setting sarcasm aside, why do you support John McCain ? Is this election about issues or is it about something else? I own my own business and have had a lousy past few years. My business is Real Estate related. I think that you can raise legitimate concerns about Obama's experience but Mc Cain in my opinion is not an individual who would ultimately be sympathetic to your personal world view. How do you feel about his support of what can only be described (in my own opinion) of his now outright support of Socialism. I can not argue with you unless I have a better understanding of where you are coming from. Pl

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zotz:

Oh yeah Boomshak, I got another one for you.
On The News Hour Judy Woodruff said that according to the Federal Election Commission McCain has RECEIVED TEN TIMES the amount of donations from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac than Obama has.

Admit it, the wheels are coming off the McCain campaign! You guys can't even smear anymore because your candidate is senile.

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ReprobateMind:

The difference between Jimmy Carter ekonomiks and Obama Nomiks is very simple. The difference is 30 years.

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Here is a very good read for you all.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=te&bn=9609&tid=1029568&mid=1029568&tof=33&frt=1#1029568

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thirdparty:

@boomshak:

http://taxpolicycenter.org/numbers/displayatab.cfm?Docid=1789&DocTypeID=7

Relevant column is "Tax Units with Business Income" > "Percent of Total". I'm fairly decent with numbers, and I reckon 0.1% + 1.3% = 1.4%.

Regarding the social security tax: basically, your claim is false. Firstly, the current threshold for SS tax is $102,000, not $97,500. Secondly, the cost is shared between the employer and the employee. And thirdly and most critically, Obama's plan is a doughnut plan, which means that it is WRONG to say that ALL your income will be affected for social security tax payments. Between $102,000 and $250,000, you pay NO social security tax at all. Oh, and fourthly, as Obama announced last month, the SS tax for earnings over $250,000 would only come into effect in 2019, NOT immediately.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahPYltpKKVXA&refer=home

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common sense:

where is boomshack?

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slinky:

Nevertheless, boomy will eventually pay more taxes under Obama than McCain, and he resents every dollar 'extra' that goes to the guvument.

Boomy feels strongly that the privilege of living in America should be paid for by people other than him.

____________________

zotz:

common sense-
Sometimes I think he doesn't like me. LOL!

____________________

zotz:

ReprobateMind-
A word of advice- If you learned how to spell "economics" your opinions might be taken a little more seriously. Really!

____________________

common sense:

boom : Where is Boom?

____________________

zotz:

I guess you are just not familiar with the common practice of replacing c's with k's to make it easier for the kommie’s to read.

Here is a very good read for you all.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=te&bn=9609&tid=1029568&mid=1029568&tof=33&frt=1#1029568

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slinky:

from comments on Krugman's column in NYTimes:

Paul Krugman ends with this sentence: "The big buyout is coming; the only question is whether it will be done right."

If Paulson at treasury (a short timer for sure) has a hand in drifting the solution, rest assured it will not be done right. In fact, anything that the conservatives propose will only be crony capitalism. Why, for instance, did AIG get an 85B bailout but the government let it remain in private hands by taking 80% and not 100%. When the S&L crisis (under Reagan, another conservative advocate of 'deregulation' where 'government is the problem, and not the solution') hit, the Resolution Trust took the assets of 'failed' institutions. The government liquidated the assets of the thrifts. The thrifts were closed and all shareholders lost their stake in the 'private investments' of the bank.

Apparently here, the government will only buy bad assets and leave the shareholders in place to profit once the bad assets are off the books. With Bush/McCain conservatives having a hand in the structure, you can bet that the shareholders and the big corporate executives will keep all of their salaries and their stock will recover to inur the profit to the shareholder's benefit, and not the governments.

The Casper Milquetoasts (Pelosi and Reid) of the democratic party will sign off on anything Bush and his cronies propose.

Rest assured, when all is said and done, the borrowers paying on the subprime loans the government will acquire will see no relief. Since the government is picking up the tab, the bankruptcy laws should be revised to allow the judges to restructure the loan terms. After all, if we are going to give the banks and their owners a free pass, why should't we do the same for the people who were tricked into the loans in the first place?

I have no confidence that anything crafted in this enviornment with the conservatives (read republicans) in charge will inur to the benefit of anyone other than their cronies on wall street. In answer to Paul Krugman's question at the beginning, if any conservative or any republican has any input on the solution, the answer is a resounding NO, it will not be done right.

— Eric Lundy, Maryland

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common sense:

Where is Boom - Perhaps we should send up a recon plane with McCain. No wait - Three is his limit.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

boomshat:

You keep saying that your 'small business' makes over $250,000 dollars.

Is that gross income?

____________________

Timmeh:

@boomshak

Do you really think Americans as a whole paying lower taxes is going to fix our broken economy? Do you really think Bush's $11 trillion debt will just magically disappear? Oh just wait. If McCain is elected president and lowers everyone's taxes, we'll be heading straight for the 2nd great depression.

____________________

common sense:

Boom : I had to go to the CITGO station to fill up my tank. Waiting for your response.

____________________

common sense:

Boom : I want to be fair. But Please tell me why John McCain is now a Socialist.

____________________

slinky:

Joe Nocera at the NYTimes doesn't think the Paulson Bernanke solution will work, and neither do I:

So rather than help solve the crisis, the Treasury Department has actually contributed to the biggest problem in the market right now: an utter lack of confidence.

Nobody understands who owes what to whom — or whether they have the ability to pay. Counterparties have become afraid to trade with each other. Sovereign wealth funds are no longer willing to supply badly needed capital because they no longer know what they are investing in. The crisis continues because nobody knows what anything is worth. You simply cannot have a functioning market under such circumstances.

Will this latest round of proposals end the crisis? I know the stock market reacted joyously on Friday, but I’m not hopeful. One solution being promoted by the Securities and Exchange Commission — to make life more difficult for short sellers — is a shameful sideshow. A second solution, which Mr. Paulson announced Friday morning, requires money market funds to create an insurance pool to cover themselves against losses.

That may provide comfort to investors who equate money funds with savings accounts, but it is fraught with moral hazard.

And the third solution — the big megillah — is Mr. Paulson’s plan to create a new government mechanism to buy mortgage-backed securities from big banks and investment houses. Once they are off those companies’ books, life can return to normal — or so Mr. Paulson hopes.

He acknowledged that it would likely cost taxpayers “hundreds of billions of dollars.” I think it will cost more than $1 trillion.

It is a weird tribute to the scale of this crisis that Mr. Paulson felt he had no choice but to rush this proposal out, because as the day progressed it became increasingly clear that the Treasury Department didn’t yet know how this mechanism was going to work. It is an idea of a plan more than an actual plan. In football, they would call it a Hail Mary pass. Sometimes, of course, a Hail Mary pass is completed for a touchdown. But most of the time they fail.

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common sense:

Sorry Folks : I guess this site is shut down.
Im' going to my grave (however) asking only - "Where is Boom?

____________________

common sense:

zotz ; Where is Boom ? I hope he's OK.

____________________

common sense:

Please Boom : Respond. If you do not the only conclusion is that you have no response.

____________________

slinky:

Joe Nocera of the NYTimes explains why the crisis isn't over by a longshot:

"THE BIG MEGILLAH For the last few weeks, a growing chorus of voices has called for the establishment of a new Resolution Trust Corporation, the entity the government devised in the wake of the savings and loan crisis to take over, and eventually sell off, the assets of failed S.& L.’s. On Wednesday, that chorus got its most powerful voice, when Paul Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman, co-authored an op-ed article in The Wall Street Journal.

That crisis, however, was very different from this one. Most of the assets in the S.& L. crisis were real estate — which are always going to have value. And the government didn’t have to acquire them; it simply took them over and, over time, sold them. This time, the assets are complex derivatives of uncertain value that the big firms will actually be selling to the government.

But how is the government going to assess these securities — and what price will it pay for them? In many cases, these securities aren’t being sold because they are still overvalued on a firms’ books. That is, their mark-to-market price is unrealistically high. Will the government buy it at the too-high price? If it does, the firms won’t have to take additional write-downs — but it will constitute a huge, unjustified bailout of Wall Street. (More moral hazard.)

But what if the government drives a hard bargain, and gets the securities for what they are really worth — 20 cents on the dollar, say, instead of 50 cents? In that case, the firms would have to take yet more enormous write-offs, which would further damage their balance sheets, and they would have to raise billions more in capital. Maybe the removal of these bad assets would allow the firms to raise the capital. But maybe not — meaning one or more could conceivably have to file for bankruptcy, creating yet another spasm of financial turmoil. It’s a huge roll of the dice by the government.

Finally, there is the question of how much it will ultimately cost. “Institutions so far have written down $550 billion globally of bad debt,” said Daniel Alpert, managing director of Westwood Capital. “We think that when you add up all the problems in the residential housing market still to come — further erosion of housing prices, mortgage foreclosures and so on — we are going to need another $1 trillion of write-downs.”

In other words, for all the toxic securities that Wall Street has acknowledged holding, there will be yet more mortgage-backed paper that will go bad as the housing market continues to fall. As much as we all hope the worst is over, it’s probably not.

And as much as we might hope that the government finally has the answer, it probably doesn’t."

____________________

slinky:

I think Obama jumped-the-gun in endorsing, even to a limited extent, the Bernanke-Paulson solution. Why? Because it isn't that well thought out, and the devil is in the details.

The fact that Volcker called for something like the Bernanke-Paulson solution in an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal should count for just about nothing.

Although Volcker steered us through the stagflation crisis during the Reagan administration, the forces acting on the economy at that moment were considerably different than those acting on it now. It does appear that Volcker was acting in his own self interest in suggesting that he knows the solution (his self interest because he's been a Wall Street Insider for years since leaving the Fed.) and that he doesn't really understand the dimensions of a crisis made of paper that can't be valued.

This is a royal sized mess that won't be solved without significant regulation coming from SEC, FTC and other Federal and State agencies, and frankly, there is, very likely, some actually illegal accounting and lending that went on to make the crisis this huge. If the perpetrators aren't punished, and are instead rewarded through a bailout and funding of their crime, well, they'll do it again.

And, why shouldn't they?

____________________

common sense:

BOOM : Where are you ? You are a coward. This website is dead without your words of wisdom. I think you are afriad to comment.

____________________

Bigmike:

God forgive me. I agree with slinky.

Basically the govt took over AIG and it won't stop there, according to Paulson and Bernanke. I that does sound a little Socialist for my conservative blood.

I didn't read all of the "fine print" in slinky's posts. So don't mark me down as hook, line, and sinker.

But what could the govt do? Let peoples life savings that just happened to be in AIG securities evaporate.

Another thing slinkster got right. There will be no sparing the next president if this doesn't get fixed asap.

Can you believe what is coming out of my mouth?

____________________

slinky:

Here is an example of corporate, high level fraud and how it was punished today in California. This is from Michael Phillips Blog. Michael, incidentally, invented MasterCard and is a conservative who is supporting McCain. But, that didn't stop him from testifying against VIP executives in California. These are executives who probably support McCain, also:

"Sep 19, 2008
Biggest penalty

The California Public Utility Commission ordered the largest penalty in utility history today by fining Southern California Edison $146 million for creating deceptive data in order to earn higher utility rates.

What was my role in this consumer-victory management-loss? I was an expert witness against So. Cal. Edison on the fraudulent nature of the survey data and the unethical behavior of top management.

So. Cal. Edison had convinced the California Utility Commission back in 1996, to grant them bonus fees for very good customer service which was to be measured by an outside survey research firm. The higher fees were actually awarded for six years until fraud was suspected and the awards were stopped.

About 3 dozen employees were fired by top management for carrying out the fraud, employees who had no incentive to cheat, but no members of higher management were fired. I testified against that classic 'fire the little guy, protect our own,' outrage.

Many efforts were made to slant the survey results in favor of So. Cal Edison bonuses, by Edison. The important evidence showed how extensive these efforts were.

My own study of the surveys showed that the research methodology was so unreliable that the survey didn't actually measure anything. So. Cal. Edison was gaming a system that was giving them the results they would have wanted even without their fraudulent efforts."

____________________

slinky:

Take home message: Conservatives are often very good at gaming the system: It's related to their strict capitalist nature: The famous saying that, if you put three capitalists in a room they will start scheming about how to diminish competition, is true. Unfortunately, very few capitalists truly celebrate capitalism. They mainly are just greedy, and will tend to violate any rule they can get away with violating to serve their greed.

The basest parts of human nature are catered to by capitalism, which is why it does not prosper in an unregulated environment.

Conservatives should celebrate regulations that keep the markets more orderly -- but instead, they scheme to disable orderly markets. That's called criminality, not capitalism.

____________________

slinky:

And, that's why I'm worried about the voting machines.

I simply don't trust that they will play by the rules.

____________________

common sense:

Dear Folks : I suspect Boom is a plant. I can't prove it but please observe that he disappears awfully quickly when confronted

____________________

slinky:

intrade is probably illegal.

I checked with an attorney who lives in an American city, and is a member in good standing of the Bar in that state.

He pretty much assured me that intrade.com sponsors gambling, and that that gambling is illegal in nearly every jurisdiction in the US.

The fact that the Feds can't shut it down isn't the point.

My reason for asking about its legality is my fear that intrade will influence the election.

intrade should not be permitted to trump a free democratic, secret ballot outcome.

Sorry, illegal bets, and the perceived 'right' to make them, are not more important than an unbiased selection of the next leader of the free world.

Intrade should be shut down, and I've told a few authorities so.

____________________

Bigmike:

I suspect common sense is a plant because he accused boom of being a plant. If I was a plant, I would want everyone to think someone else was instead of me.

That was a little humor, as I am sure common sense's post was. In a way we are all plants. We all bring our own ideas here with us. I guarantee you McCain never heard of me. But would a plant do anything different? OK, they might type a little faster and a little better. They might use bigger words than I do. But they would not mean it any more than I do. Same for most of us here on both sides.

____________________

common sense:

Boom : How are things at GOP headquarters. You are a Fraud. John McCain is an honorable man. If he knew what you were doing he would be disgusted. The American People are not as dumb as you Republicans may think.

____________________

Bigmike:

Having had time to think about McCain's statement that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" I think his biggest mistake was back-pedalling. The lame excuse that he was talking about the American worker made him look silly.

What he should have done is defended his statement. The "fundamentals" such as inflation, unemployment, and productivity are actually not too terrible, not when compared to other times in the recent past.

Not that I am saying the economy is in great shape. But I bet a large portion of the electorate would have bought that answer.

____________________

Tom:

Some thoughts on the yellow states here. This is a list in order of McCain lead to Obama lead.

WV (5 EV) M+3.6
NV (5 EV) M+2.9
MT (3 EV) M+2.6
IN (11 EV) M+2.5
OH (20 EV) M+2.5
NH (4 EV) M+2.3
VA (13 EV) M+2.0
===============================================
CO (9 EV) O+1.2
PA (21 EV) O+3.0
MN (10 EV) O+3.4
MI (17 EV) O+3.5
WI (10 EV) O+3.6

While it is true that Obama needs all the states he currently leads in, McCain must reverse one of the states that Obama currently leads in to avoid a tie, where he would most likely lose in the House. A coule of notes. FL is at M+4.1 right now. While that state was drifting towards McCain, any polls that show a reversal of that trend would most likely throw the state back to yellow. NC (M+5.3) and MO (M+5.4) would be next if the trend continues. However, FL and NC just recently turned pink. As for Obama, the only light blue states in immediate danger of turning yellow are WA (O+5.3) and NM (O+5.4). It should be noted that NM just turned light blue. I also see that the national map has gone back to light blue after being pink less than a week ago.

____________________

common sense:

Big Mike : I am going to vote for Obama. I guess you are going to vote for McCain. That is OK with me. That is what America is all about. By the way - do you like the NFL. I have Carson Palmer in my fantasy league. What is the matter witrh him.

____________________

Bigmike:

A lot has been said on here about CO, NM and VA. I think it comes down to the bigger states.

OH, MI, FL and PA. Everyone knows how they have gone the last two elections. None are safely in the bag for either side this time. IF anyone takes 3 of the 4 that almost wraps it up. It would force the other side into taking several smaller states that went to the other party the last time or two. And I just don't see that happening.

Of course if these big 4 split like they have been, then this gets won in the smaller states.

____________________

common sense:

Sorry all you people who think i"m Kidding : Boom really is a GOP plant. No Response to this site.

____________________

Bigmike:

common sense

I am not enthusiastic about McCain. But I view him as the lesser of two evils in this election. More experienced, more in line with my core beliefs, which are conservative on most issues. You know the standard speech, so I won't repeat it all.

If Obama wins, it won't be the end of the world. It will be congrats, now get busy governing. And we could do worse. Kennedy, Reid, Pelosi, Hillary, Biden..... It's a long list and I won't bore you with that either.

You had to mention the NFL! As a lifelong KC fan (I watched Super Bowl IV, which wasn't even a Super Bowl at the time, and it has been a long wait to get back), I am already saying wait till next year, or maybe the one after that. Palmer is surrounded by a bunch of cry babies, or so I hear. Sorry, don't follow the Bengals too closely. But lets not bore people on this site with a lot of NFL stuff. There are lots of other sites for that.

____________________

common sense:

BOOOMSHACK IS A GOP PLANT. PLEASE post something on this post to prove me wrong. Wow- This Website died pretty quick

____________________

Bigmike:

common sense

Traffic comes and traffic goes. It may pick up again and it may not. It is Friday night.

I expected someone to jump all over my post about McCain's statement on the fundamentals of the economy, but it didn't happen. Either everyone agrees, or people have other things to do. I suspect the latter.

But if I recall correctly inflation is up to about 6.5% and unemployment is 5.1. Not stellar numbers, but historically not terrible. I looked up the yearly numbers for both from 1948-2007. In that time period, the average yearly number for inflation is 4.7 and the average yearly number for unemployment is 6.1.

____________________

common sense:

BigMike Thanks for your response. I know this site is not NFL. But Boom is a plant. If McCain wins I will salute him as President. The economy is a mess. Give the Dems a chance.

____________________

Bigmike:

Let me correct myself. I had adjusted the formulas in my spreadsheet to look at 1970-2007. Those averages of the yearly numbers are for that time period.

Boom, or anyone else here, may very well be a plant. I have no idea. Or maybe he had a date. Or maybe he is east coast and has to get up early tomorrow. Maybe he works nights. Don't know, don't care. I have seen him respond to plenty of challenges, so I would not read too much into it. And I would not get paranoid about anyone being a plant. If I was planting people, I would probably pick sites with more users. And the people you see posting on here are not going to be persuaded to change their mind just because you or I would like them to. Or because some plant wants them to.

Yep, the economy has plenty of problems. We could go all night with Reps pointing fingers at Dems and vice versa. But what we really need is ideas on how to fix it. I notice McCain and Obama are both backing the govt bail out. Neither is as anti-establishment as they want us to believe.

____________________

common sense:

BigMike : You are a guy I would like to have a beer with. Is it not strange that BOOM has disappeard from this site. I respect your core beliefs but I think it is time that Health Care for all Americans is is made a reality. I believe that our Armed Services are better used in Afhganistan than Iraq. Mc Cain is qualified to be President. Joe Biden is a lightweight but better than Palin. Is it so bad that Obama would be our face to the World. He is Charismatic but also substantive. Mc Cain does not appear to have a clue. Whatever, please understand that I am a democrat (most of the time) but democrats are as patriotic as anyone else. I am sick and tired of hiding the fact that I am a Democrat. God Bless America.

____________________

common sense:

Boomshak: If you are not a GOP plant log on - just a sign - lift a finger - blow a fart.

____________________

Bigmike:

common sense

I repect your beliefs too. No one, even us cold hearted conservatives, want people to not have access to health care. Hell, they have to be healthy enough to work in our sweat shops, don't they? We just differ on how to get there from here. Dems wanted people to have better housing and we got the projects. Do you want similar results in health care?

Palin was a political move. Energize the base and maybe pick up a few Hillary supporters. In a close election it may be the difference. And who knows, maybe she will grow into the job. It has happened before. NO ONE is ready to be President on day one.

Don't bet McCain doesn't have a clue. Dems want a policy wonk like Bill Clinton. Micro manage everything. Ronnie Reagan didn't do it that way. Show some leadership, make the big decisions, surround yourself with good people and let them do their jobs. It worked well for him. And that is how most businesses are run. The Pres of my company never sticks his nose into what I am doing. I get the job done or he will find someone else who can. He gets the results in the balance sheet. It's been good for the last 14 years. He's happy, I'm happy, and we can both retire in a few years.

____________________

common sense:

BOOOMSHACK IS A GOP PLANT. PLEASE post something on this post to prove me wrong. Wow- This Website died pretty quick

____________________

common sense:

BIG MIKE : You make a lot of sense. I think I'mbacking the winner. If Mc Cain wins I pray that he lives. God Bless America.

____________________

Bigmike:

Thats what makes this a great country. We state our opinions, vote how we want, and may the best candidate win.

Gotta go. Good night and good luck.

____________________

change:

If Mccain wins make sure you ready for;

an evangelical crusade into Iran

more de-regulation of the economy which has resulted in this crisis to quote dirtbag mcsame "i am alway for de-regulation"

More abu gharibs with our image being shattered around the world

and abortion outlawed for victims of rape and incest

____________________

common sense:

Big mike : I really think that Obama is going to win. It is people like you that make me think that the Union is Sound.

____________________

common sense:

boomshack is GOP plant

____________________

thoughtful:

Good Morning

I am sure that Boom is an early riser!

Where are you Boom, lots of folks were missing you last night!

____________________

boomshak:

Good morning all my liberal friends whom I appreciate as fellow Americans but disagree with politically!

Ok, in response to a few questions about me:

I am a 48 year old white male.
I own a very successful Executive Search Firm (www.executivedecision.biz).
I have been a Republican all my life from a family of Republicans.
I am fiscally conservative.
I am socially moderate.
I believe government should govern & defend.
I believe we should leave private morality to the churches.
I believe, however, that public morality (where one's choices affect the lives of others) should remain the pervue of government. You cannot have society run amok with child predators for instance.
"Render unto Caesar what is due Caeser and render unto God what is due God..." is my basic philosophy.
Economically, I believe in what I call the "Fertile Field Doctrine".

FERTILE FIELD DOCTRINE:
Government's role in the economy is to provide a fertile field into which American Enterprenuers can plant their ideas, tend the crops and harvest prosperity.

Government must also build a fence (defense) around the field so no other nations can plant their crops here.

However, what you find with any fertile field is that weeds also like to flourish there. Weeds, in this case, being corruption, abuse, bad business practices, greed and excess. The role of government regulation, then, is to weed the fertile field so that the crops of American Business can grow unfettered.

What we have now with the financial crisis is the government (and both political parties as well as Wall Street / Banking Management and the American Public are responsible) is that no one had the political will to weed the field as we went along.

Can you imagine airport security being as invasive before 9/11 as after? No one would have stood for it. So the weeds of corruption, greed and excess were allowed to grow until they finally began to choke out the good crops and steal the life from the soil.

Only now, when our field is dying do we have the political will to stand up. But now, instead of plucking weeds as the appear, we are left to plow under the whole field and start over. As the old saying goers, "it is better to keep up than to catch up...".

Tax policy is like the fertilizer in the field (slight humor intended). Not enough fertilizer and the field dies for lack of nutrition. Too much fertilizer and the crops get burned. So, as with fertilizer, there is a sweet spot for tax policy. Enough to nourish the crops, but not so much as to burn them out.

MY PROBLEM WITH BARACK OBAMA:
Barack Obama wants us to believe he can do things he has never done and that he won't do things he has done.

In 10 years of government service, Barack Obama has NEVER been an agent of change.
1. He has never stood up to his own party (voted 97% the party line 97% of the time).
2. He has no memorable legislation with his name on it.
3. He has no record of bipartisanship.

If Obama was arrested for being an agent of change, there would not be enough evidence to convict him.

And yet, he claims to be able to turn 10,000 years of human socialogical evolution on its head.
1. Terrorist governments will get along with us if only we will talk with them.
2. Everyone, no matter their intelligence level has a right to attend college.
3. Republicans and Democrats will get along.
4. Dogs and cats will sleep together.

Contrary to popular mythology, everyone is not created equal. There are those with greater abilities than others, those who are willing to work harder than others. Since you cannot raise everyone to greatness, in order to make everyone equal, you must bring those with greatness down to the mediocrity. This is the lebreal social engineering model.

This experiment has been tried throughout history - we call it Communism. Every country that has tried this has ended up as an oppressive, totalitarian regime because you simply cannot govern against human nature.

So here we have Barack Obama. He has no record of change (other than changing almost every position he ran on during the primaries). He has no discernable core beliefs. You would think that a man with this messianic ability and drive to CHANGE things might have accidentally done so somewhere along the way and yet, there is no evidence.

For example, name for me 5 dramatic changes Obama has brought about in his last 10 years as a State and now US Senator:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Yep, can't do it, I know.

Sure it's possible for someone to read a medical manual and perform brain surgery, but I for one do not wish to be the one under the knife.

So we see that all of his political life, Barack Obama has not sought CHANGE, he has sought POWER.

My other major problem with Barack Obama is that by electing him, we will be turning over the keys to the city to hard left leadership. Unfettered power is never good, no matter who wields it. If Barack becomes POTUS, liberals will control the Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches of government. America is a center/right country. I do not believe, in the end, they will allow this to happen.

...ok, I'll talk more about why I support McCain/Palin later.

____________________

boomshak:

P.S., I'll be out most of the day today, so you liberals will be free to frollick in your self-delusion :)

Have fun!

____________________

thoughtful:

Boom

We'll wait for the next installment!

"...ok, I'll talk more about why I support McCain/Palin later."

Should be interesting!

____________________

thoughtful:

Looks like stable polls:

R2000/KOS Daily Tracker Obama 50% McCain 42% (3 day average)3% MOE

Yesterday's polling

49%-42% MOE 5.1%

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/20

____________________

slinky:

(1) John McCain is not who you think he is.
see http://www.amazon.com/Real-McCain-Conservatives-Independents-Shouldnt/dp/0979482291/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1221913685&sr=8-1


(2) Joe Nocera and I appear to agree that the current economic fix will probably not work:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/business/20nocera.html?ref=business

it would be useful and interesting to understand why conservatives now think that the coporate appropriation of the national treasury to protect their bad debt is (a) an appropriate use of governmental funds or (b) how accounting principles failed (conservatives are great advocates of certified public accountants, who ostensibly certified that the firms in question properly stated their assets and liabilities).

I'll take my answers off the air.

____________________

atreides:

I'm a CPA and accounting is a backwards looking discipline. What decked Bear and Lehman and probably Fannie and Freddie was derivative risk that came home to roost. Lehman had 157 billion of risk on its balance sheet when it went kaput. Derivatives are notoriously hard to value because they depend on unpredictable future events to occur. Think about options. There are some notable options valuation formula but close examination of them reveals probabilistic assumptions about the future. So figuring out where naked derivative positions would be six months into the future was nearly impossible. The coverage of the part that derivatives played in this debacle is poor at best. I think its that way because its hard to understand them. But I'm willing to bet that if the damage was confined to just bad mortgage loans, Fannie/Freddie and AIG would have been spared. But the derivative action multiplied the impact of the bad loans and thats why the rapid demise of Bear and then Lehman. Some other commercial banks are suffering because a "run of the bank" mentality is taking over. Large deposits are being withdrawn in the form of commercial paper and money markets. No matter how sound a portfolio a bank has, none would survive if the depositors decided to take their money out. That's what this bailout is all about. If they remove the bad paper from the books, then the reason to take your money out should disappear, theoretically speaking. But whether it works will have to play out.

____________________

thoughtful:

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with 48% of the vote and John McCain with 47%. While Obama’s lead is statistically insignificant, it is the first time he has held even a single-point advantage in a week-and-a-half."

____________________

thoughtful:

@atreides

Treasury and the Fed are having to bail out the entire system due to the run mentality and the wholese credit system ceasing up due to deleveraging, as all the liquidity has gone to money heaven.

____________________

atreides:

I think I said that but the backdrop especially for Lehman and Bear was derivatives. Even fannie and Freddie were still unbelievably mixed up with derivatives. But more to the point, Rasmussen LV model is "out of touch". Why is he sticking to removing more Obama votes because of 2004/2006 results than to make a call that AA participation rates will be higher?

____________________

boomshak:

Well, it looks as if DailyKos is insisting on trying to make us believe that only 26% of the electorate is Republican. This only misses the Rasmussen estimate of 34% (based upon 45,000 phone calls) by a mere 8 points (which is exactly the differenec in the two polls) so I guess we can overlook it.

I hope it makes their readers happy even though it is complete bullox.

____________________

boomshak:

Yep, we'll probably be hitting the first debate with this thing dead even - assuming, of course, you don't look at polls that vastly undersample Republicans - 26%! Please!

If America really only has 26% Republicans, we should look forward to Obama winning POTUS with a 60% mandate as well as veto-proof majorities in both houses.

____________________

boomshak:

FactCheck.org declares new Obama Attack Ad against McCain to be TOTALLY FALSE!

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/scaring_seniors.html

Nice LYING there Barack!

"An Obama-Biden ad says McCain supports "cutting benefits in half" for Social Security recipients. False!"

"Summary
A new Obama ad characterizes the "Bush-McCain privatization plan" as "cutting Social Security Benefits in half." This is a falsehood sure to frighten seniors who rely on their Social Security checks. In truth, McCain does not propose to cut those checks at all.

The ad refers to a Bush proposal from 2005 to hold down the growth of benefits for future retirees. Compared to the buying power of benefits paid to today's retirees, that would not have been a "cut" for anybody. It would have been a "cut" of half only in relation to benefits now promised to retirees who have yet to be born. And for average workers, that "cut" in 2075 was projected by one of Obama's own economic advisers to be 28 percent, not "half."

The ad also says McCain voted "in favor of privatizing Social Security." The term "privatizing" could give the wrong impression. McCain does support creating government-managed accounts that would allow individuals to invest some portion of their Social Security payroll taxes in widely diversified stock or bond funds."

____________________

boomshak:

THE FOLLOWING IS SAMPLE OF OBAMA'S VOTING RECORD FROM THE STATE SENATE. IF THIS DOESN'T SCARE YOU, I DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL:

"March 14, 1997 Thank you Madam Speaker (sic). Will the sponsor yield? I let this – I voted to have this bill come out of committee, because I think it was useful to have this kind of discussion on the bill, and I think the Senator has good intent… So although I did vote Yes to get this out of the committee, I – as currently constituted in light of the discussion, I think that it may – I will probably vote in opposition to the bill.

March 18, 1997 This is actually on the previous bill, 1076. I pressed yes, but my button didn’t come up.

March 19, 1997 The – yesterday on Senate Bill 1000, I should have – I was trying to vote Yes on this and I was recorded as a No. Just wanted to have that in the record.

March 20, 1997 Yes, Madam President. On Senate bill 700, I should have pressed a Yes vote; pressed a Present vote. I’d like that reflected in the record, please.

May 13, 1997 Yes, Mr. President. I was off the floor and I was wondering if we were going to go back on 2nd reading. I’d ask the body for 2147. Move it from 2nd to 3rd.

May 28, 1997 Thank you, Madam President. My button seems to be sticking. So I was recorded as not voting on that; I would have voted aye.

October 30, 1997 Thank you, Madam President, Members of the Chamber, the sponsor. Let me start off by just saying that – I want to apologize to the sponsor because the – I’m originally recorded as a – as a Yes vote on this, and it’s an indication, I think, that I wasn’t paying sufficient attention. I do have concerns on this bill, and I just want to express those concerns very quickly…

November 14, 1997 Thank you, Mr. President. I had the same problem on Senate Bill 493. I’d like to be recorded as a No vote.

[Later that same day]

Thank you, Mr. President. On Senate Bill 452, I was out in the hall when the vote came up and I didn’t get back here in time. I would like to be recorded as a Yes vote.

May 22, 1998 I apologize, Mr. President. I was off the floor and missed House Bill 1706. I just wanted to record that I would have voted in the affirmative."

____________________

boomshak:

HERE IS OBAMA (IN HIS OWN WORDS) DESCRIBING HOW HE HAS NO EXECUTIVE/OPERATIONAL SKILLS AT ALL AND SEE HIS ROLE AS PRESIDENT SIMPLY TO BE A VISIONARY:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7968.html

"Obama first broached the issue in a Jan. 14 interview with the Gazette-Journal editorial board, where he was quoted as saying, “I’m not an operating officer. Some in this debate around experience seem to think the job of the president is to go in and run some bureaucracy. Well, that’s not my job. My job is to set a vision of ‘Here’s where the bureaucracy needs to go.’”

The next day, NBC’s Brian Williams, serving as a moderator of a debate in Las Vegas, read part of the quote to Obama, then asked, “Do the American people want someone in the Oval Office who is an operating officer?”

Obama responded that “being president is not making sure that schedules are being run properly or the paperwork is being shuffled effectively. It involves having a vision for where the country needs to go.”

Later in the debate, when asked about his greatest strength and weakness, he elaborated: “I ask my staff never to hand me paper until two seconds before I need it, because I will lose it.”

The comment prompted laughter, and he continued: “My desk and my office doesn't look good. I've got to have somebody around me who is keeping track of that stuff. And that's not trivial; I need to have good people in place who can make sure that systems run. That's what I've always done, and that's why we run not only a good campaign but a good U.S. Senate office.”

IS THIS GUY SCARING YOU YET?

____________________

boomshak:

A TRULY HILARIOUS PICTURE BECAUSE IT IS SO TRUE:

http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/holb080922.jpg

____________________

slinky:

In science, when we find quantities difficult to value, we figure out what the lowest imaginable value could possibly be, and we project out, and then we figure out what the highest possible value could be and we project out.

Accountants in their wisdom, can do the same things for derivatives.

I would submit that deciding that you can't evaluate the worth of certain assets renders them worthless.

Roubini appears to have figured all this out several years ago.

Could it have been the self-interest of the accounting profession that caused it to be unable to evaluate these assets?

____________________

slinky:

Boombrain,

You've tried to prove that (a) Obama was a klutz in his first years in the State Senate, (b) that he is a messy office keeper, and (c) that America is racist.

McCain, on the other hand, did INDEED want to privatize Social Security (I am dead set against that -- and think this week proves how BAD an idea that is; I'm confident you disagree...), and has reversed course on nearly every position he has ever taken on anything.

He will also probably die in office, leaving an inexperienced girlie to run our soon-to-be
second rate nation into the ground. McCain demonstrated terrible judgement with his choice of Palin.

So, have the world your way. If it goes your way, I am fairly certain there will be riots in the streets.

And, your cartoon is racist.

____________________

slinky:

My note to Lieber of the NYTimes today:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/business/yourmoney/20money.html

Here's my problem with your column today:
You fail to note that these investment advisors who are suggesting people take risk with their retirement are also the very same people who advocate dismantling social security.

They prefer that the entire life savings of everyone be in Wall Streets hands.

This is neither tenable nor does it bode well for the future of our mixed economy.

There must be a moratorium on bs by the Wall
Street crowd before knowledgeable investors
will believe a word they say.

One other thing: This bailout will likely fail in the long or short term because accounting standards have failed to be enforced, SEC and FTC aren't permitted to do their jobs (enforce current laws, rule, and regs.) and the Justice Department has been politicized and corrupted.

Sorry, but American capitalism is on the brink
of complete breakdown, and you are echoing
stupid Bush's advice after 9/11, when he should have rolled back his tax cuts, and telling us to invest.

We should do no such thing.

____________________

slinky:

I am against rushing to 'fix' the problems on Wall Street in the middle of this panic. I believe there should be a moratorium on trading and some study should take place before a 'fix' is attempted. I adjudge the odds of failure through the purchase of bad loans to be considerable.

It would be wiser for courts to be provided guidelines to renegotiate compliant mortgages and thus to secure the debt and derivatives ALREADY in the marketplace as opposed to buying them all and then trying to fix them all up, over a period of many years, while Wall Street goes on its merry way. [making many of the same errors as time moves forward].

____________________

slinky:

Americans want fast easy fixes.

There are no fast easy fixes right now.

____________________

Paul:

Another contradiction for Palin's legal position and the McCain Palin campaign defense of firing the Commissioner of Public Safety follows.

Monday, legal counsel for Palin and the McCain-Palin campaign both stated: "Mr. Monegan persisted in planning to make the unauthorized lobbying trip to D.C."

Commissioner Monegan sought "federal funds for an aggressive anti-sexual-violence program. The project, expected to cost from $10 million to $20 million a year for five years, would have been the first of its kind in Alaska, which leads the nation in reported forcible rape."

Governor Palin's record has been to not support anti sexual assault legislation and she does not support abortion in the case of sexual assault.

Now the problem with the Palin's lawyers statement as well as the McCain-Palin statement is they are both incorrect. In fact, Palin's chief of staff Mike Nizich approved the trip.

See: http://abcnews.com/images/Blotter/TA.pdf
for the document shpwing approval of the trip.

Source: http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5844710&page=1

____________________

boomshak:

Ok, let me be the first to officially say it:

GALLUP HAS LOST HIS FRIGGIN MIND!

He now has Obama ahead by 6 points, an 11 point swing in ONE WEEK? Is this a TRACKING POLL with a 2% MOE or a joke? In the same period of time, Rasmussen with a larger sample size has only moved 4 points.

No I am sorry, 5 points ahead was silly. This is just rediculous! I promise you, he has dramatically changed his party affiliation weightings to come up with this hot mess.

Fail.

Next.

P.S., Both Rasmussen and Hotline are both using a +5 Dem PI weighting and have the race +1 to Obama.

Joke Poll.

____________________

boomshak:

@slinky:

"And, your cartoon is racist."

Huh? Obama and McCain are playing basketball and that is racist? Dude, get the HUGE chip off your shoulder.

The cartoon isn't funny because we should expect Obama to be beating McCain at basketball because Obama is black, it is funny because McCain is this old guy in a walker and Obama is a young man. It has NOTHING to do with race.

But racists see race in everything so I think maybe you are the racist here.

____________________

boomshak:

Look at these 4 tracking polls. Notice the OUTLIER?

Rasmussen Tracking 09/17 - 09/19 3000 LV 48 47 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking 09/17 - 09/20 2796 RV 50 44 Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/17 - 09/20 915 RV 45 44 Obama +1
Battleground Tracking 09/11 - 09/18 800 LV 47 47 Tie

Gallup +6 and everyone else a statistical tie - FAIL.

____________________

boomshak:

Gallup had McCain way too high at +5 and now he has Obama way too high at +6. I would LOVE to see this guys crosstabs and polling methodology.

No wonder he won't show them.

____________________

atreides:

You never address the PROBLEM with Rasmussen. His LV model is wrong and that why there is such a strong divergence from Gallup. There's probably two points of difference in Rasmussen's numbers that is base on an inaccurate AA weight. Rasmussen goes to +3 or + 4 with the right weights.

____________________



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