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US: Daily Tracking (9/25-27)


National Daily Tracking Surveys
9/25-27/08

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
1,100 LV, 3%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 50, McCain 43

Diageo / Hotline
905 RV, 3.2%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 47, McCain 42

Gallup
2,719 RV, 2%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 50, McCain 42

Rasmussen
3,000 LV, 2%; IVR
Obama 50, McCain 44

 

Comments
Publius:

I have two questions:

How much does the candidates' internal polling differ from what we see above and in the state polls posted on this site?

Are these polls more or less reliable than Pew, Gallup, etc.?

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carl29:

Oh, oh, McSame is not happy about all this. I think that it is pretty safe to suggest that the "suspension" gimmick didn't work in McSame's favor.

*I am so looking foward to Biden v. Palin's debate :-)

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modrat:

Wow, There had to be some gain on Saturday's numbers for some of these tracker polls to increase over yesterday. Look for McCain to get real nasty and haul off a few more hail marys to get things back on track.

The McCain campaign suspension debacle did not work. People are starting to question the old man's erratic behavior.

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cjk002:

This is really bad news for McCain because it inludes the first full day of polling after the debate. The trolls will be angry today, just wait for it...


This also probably increases the likelihood of another McCain distraction, the TimesOnline had a pretty good story, with qoutes from McCain campaign people, on what that distraction might be: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4837644.ece

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carl29:

I totally agree that this week McSame will be as nasty as he can be. He is behind in the polls, and the "brilliant" Gov. Palin will present her "show" to the American people on Thursday. McSame will do anything to distract people from what is going on with the economy and Ms. Palin's "ideas."

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modrat:

@ Carl

I look forward to the VP debate too. But with a nervous eye. Palin has such low expectations that even a tie could change the momentum of this race. She will not have too much trouble doing better than what is expected. Biden could blow this thing by not prepping enough.

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Flashlight:

McCain's only hope is for Sarah Palin to give birth live at Thursday's debate.


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Willem van Oranje:

But, but, but, the US is a center/right country ....

And the Pundits tell me it was a tie Friday ...

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adocarbog:

Gimmicks work less and less for McCain. Even on SNL last night they made fun of his gimmicks and stunts and they called him out on it.

Frank Newport of gallup today on TV predicted Obama win based on previous elections that at end of September if you are ahead with decent lead and have been leading most of the year you win.

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carl29:

Look, average people are not pundits. People don't think or set their expectations based on what pundits say or tell them to think. My feeling is that the American people compare one person to the other, in this case Biden compared to Palin and viceversa. People are going to decide how Palin or Biden perform based on how well each of them do compared to the other. Pundits can say whatever they want, but average people are not bound to what those pundits say.

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1magine:

We all know McCain does not speak for the McCain campaign - word today is Palin does not speak for the McCain/ Palin ticket:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080928/ap_on_el_pr/palin_ethics

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1magine:

We all know McCain does not speak for the McCain campaign - word today is Palin does not speak for the McCain/ Palin ticket:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080928/ap_on_el_pr/palin_ethics

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thoughtful:

The hotline poll is slightly worying showing a loss of a point each to undecided.

The idea of the debate is to convert undecideds not create more churn, this is the first evidence that I have seen of that.

There has to be a contingent McCain stunt planned for Thursday/Friday just in case she does walk into one in the debate.

Personally I think Palin will do quite well, I don't think Biden is that good a debater. He also has an exceptional ability to make it up as he goes along.

The average here waiting for Justin now goes to over 6%!

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Von_in_WA:

I've been reading this blog and following the polls closely now for a number of months, but I have yet to add my two cents. I think we can now say that is very unlikely that McCain can win this race.

From Gallup, R2000, we see Obama gaining ground after the debate, so it appears that the debate has at the minimum not changed the race from a 3-5 point Obama lead and most likely helped Obama somewhat. Particularly, the economy portion of the debate seemed to help Obama the most, and from my viewing, I thought he fumbled this part of the debate. The rest of the election will be focused on domestic policy and the economy, which it seems Obama can win on, even when he answers the questions poorly. I expect he will offer stronger arguments on the economy and domestic policy in future debates, which begs the question -- when will McCain have the chance to make up ground? I don't see how he can besides more political stunts, and I think the voting public is tiring of McCain's stunts. Look for each additional McCain stunt to be marginally less effective than the first one (the Palin pick).

The other chance for McCain is the VP debate. The format of questions only from the moderator makes it less likely that Palin will sound like a total idiot, but also less likely that Biden will make a huge gaffe or look like he's being too mean to Palin. And from Palin's interviews, it seems likely that Palin will come off as stupid anyway. Again, I think this debate is very unlikely to help McCain-Palin.

So the most likely scenario is a Solid 4-6 point Obama win with 300+ EV. The equally next most likely scenarios are a close race and an Obama landslide (7+ popular vote win). Does anyone see a likely scenario in which McCain can win this thing?

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FlyOnTneWall:

Is that Publius of ObsidianWings fame?

The answer to your first question is, unsurprisingly, it depends. Campaigns are most likely to leak their internals only when the results deviate significantly in their favor from the publicly released data. I've never heard of a campaign confessing to a reporter that their own internals show them faring worse than a recent public release. So it tends to be a little opaque. The other thing to bear in mind is that campaigns are a little more focused in their internal polling - they may be less interested in constructing a representative snapshot of public opinion than in how specific messages are being received or will be received, and in how targeted subgroups are reacting. So the topline numbers just aren't as important. And some campaign pollsters are notoriously unreliable - Mark Penn springs to mind - and tend to find in their polling evidence for whatever arguments they might care to advance. So Hillary's internal polling rarely showed what the rest of us were seeing, which was one reason why her campaign veered so badly off-course. All that said, the pollsters are, ideally, reaching the same populations, irrespective of to whom they report their data. On the campaigns for which I've worked, the internal numbers have deviated from other polls roughly to the same extent as those other polls deviate from each other.

Tracking polls are, in general, produce greater sensitivity and lower specificity than conventional polls. Mark Blumenthal has had some great posts on this in the past. One key issue is callbacks - a conventional poll will re-call the numbers they can't reach on the first night several nights in a row, increasing the representative nature of their sample. But all polls have strengths and weaknesses related to the models they employ. So Gallup's tracking poll, for example, has a wonderful reputation - but it employs a very loose likely voter screen that tends to skew its results until the public at large becomes very focused on the race, say in the final month. Diageo and Research2K both have very small sample sizes, and are correspondingly fairly volatile. Rasmussen has a sample as large as Gallup's, but uses a robo-poll and not live interviewers.

Bottom line? It's nice to have this many trackers in the field. I wouldn't ever rely on a single tracking poll to reach broad conclusions. But if you aggregate all four (five on weekdays), you can see things with a decent degree of accuracy (see the recent post on that subject).


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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Crushing . . . And once McCain goes ballistic with an ad about Rev. Wright, there will be a huge backlash. His lead will be in double digits after the Palin debacle . . . er uh . . . debate. Sorry, I meant debate.

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DocnTN:

Thank God it looks like an Obama win barring racism peeking its ugly head on election day. Unfortunately, the important election was four years ago when not having Bush re-elected would have made the situation of our country much better. Four years ago, when it mattered, it was a Greek Tragedy. We could see the trouble coming from afar but were impotent to do anything about it.

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macsuk:

thoughtful

The hotline poll has had a history of showing some odd results with sudden shifts in all directions. I look for Obama to gain 3-4 points tomorrow in that very strange poll.

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slinky:

@Von_in_Wa

Scenario in which McCain wins:
(1) McCain takes FL, OH, NH, VA, CO because
(2) Awful facts emerge about Obama's past seized on by 527s, and
(3) McCains debate performance equals Obamas in the next 2 and Palin is at least even with Biden.

So, the Obama campaign needs to screw up about something in the closet, and the McCain campaign needs to improve markedly.

Not likely, but possible.


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ncc81701:

Judging from the results and the debate, it seems more like McCain lost the debate rather than Obama winning it. I think it is a result of McCain seeming to be more condescending and uncomfortable in the debate. I mean the guy didn't even look at Obama once...

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thoughtful:

A word of caution:

There is still well over a month to go.

There is still a great deal of "churn" bewteen Candidates and Undecided and more undecided.

The trend line is still very favorable to Obama.

We need to now focus on individual states. On those polls we need to see Colorado and Virginia locked up as New Mexico and Iowa have been then it doesn't matter if NH were to fall out of the blue.

This is the critical week. If it is still +6% in these trackers I'm certain that the States will be locked up, Big Mo established and an Obama landslide looks more than likely.

It looks like Obama +7% average maybe obtained tomorrow judged by yesterday's polling and noise today!

But Caution as the real poll is all about GOTV!

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Guy Fawkes:

One nice feature of Obama: he attracts thousands of smears, but each smear contradicts all others. For example, if Obama was involved in questionable land deals with a corrupt Chicago financier, then he's probably not a member of an Al-Qaeda sleeper cell. If he's an elitist Ivy League snob, he's probably not a bomb-throwing Black Panther militant.

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Publius:

FlyOnTheWall:

No, I'm not him, but I did have to look it up to get your reference.

Thank you for the information. I just find it interesting that we see state polls, but no candidate movement to those states in response, but we do see movement when our polls don't seem to warrant it.

These trackers are showing an Obama trend. I look forward to seeing the VP debate on Thursday.

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thoughtful:

@macsuk

Hotline is a good poll, but suffers from only 300 or so daily interviews.

I am on record as awarding the Debate to Obama because he did better with the undecided and unafiliated than McCain.

I expect that one of these Trackers might even tip 53% this week which is why I was surprised to see Hotline retreat from Candidate support to Undecided.

But caution against over confidence as the real poll is Nov 4th and GOTV.

Intrade 17+ Obama currently.

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change:

Mcsame is very reactive to polls, i wonder what his next stunt will be. Being down 8 in the gallup with you opponent hitting 50 with 38 days until the election is not good news. and i have a feeling obama's lead will grow

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Jacob S:

Well, Obama has now reached the 50 percent mark. If nothing notable happens for the next month, this race is over.

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MNLatteLiberal:

no, no, this is all good news for McCain. While Boom is away let me explain how:
1) a bunch of 20+ yo women at a bar in Raleigh told Boomshack he was the cutest guy in the bar.
2) apparently he was not able to practice procreation last night despite that and despite his pledging to do so before he left.
3) Sara Palin is clearly slowly but surely gaining acceptance.
4) She is out attacking Pakistan, while McCain is attacking Spain. This shows leadership. And executive experience:
a) it keeps all those 'stan countries in line.
b) it reminds NATO who is the boss
c) it broadens the Bush Doctrine (with a nod to SNL skit) to include whimsical preemptive strikes just in case a clear and present danger cannot be later substantiated.
d) the latter is clearly a lesson learn from the Iraq War that McCain would have stated were Obama not so rude all the time.

I will be happy to elucidate any other finer points the rest of you left wingers might have missed until Tip and boom and marctx return from their Sunday services. Praise Jesus!

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kerrchdavis:

This was boomshaks response when I told him gallup would be +8.

"Yes, I hear that ABCNews/NYTimes has Obama ahead by 20 points in a poll to be released in 3 days.

Lol."

I guess I really ended up looking like an idiot.

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slinky:

@ncc81701

It would not be correct to attribute Obama's win to McCain's weakness in the debate. As I have revealed here, I trained early with some of Obama's trainers. McCain gave a good and credible performance. He was bested though application of just a few (very few) techniques. McCain is not a weak debater. Obama won by a small margin (the polls are overreactive indicators, IMHO). McCain could still win one. It is unlikely, though that he could win 2, and Palin win the one with Biden. This is just not that likely a scenario.

McCain's shenanigan in calling off the campaign (shenanigan, that is ploy or honest impulsive move, I don't know), lost him alot of prep. momentum and thereby formulated a major distraction for him. It's a little like staying home because you're sick and then getting sick. Self-fulfilling prophecy. McCain has lots of problems like that. Like I said, yesterday. McCain wouldn't do well on a psychological test called a Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Assessment. Obama would do well; McCain wouldn't.

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change:

Guys imagine how bad Mcsames fundraising is going. Would you support a campaign failing so badly?

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thoughtful:

@slinky

"John you are right" won the debate for Obama with the the undecided.

McCain was disrespectful. I think he can't look Obama in the eye without losing it.

You can't take the suspect temperament out of the man. McCain came across as unbalanced and "Riskier" than his less experienced but more considered and intelligent opponent.

Personally I think McCain prepped up even more as he suspended a lot of travelling and personal appearances. I'm surprised that McCain fooled you, "the suspension@ was a complete ruse!

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slinky:

@thoughtful

high point in reaction during the CBS undecided focus group in the debate was Obamas pounding McCain on his record: ".. You were wrong..."
was the high point in that focus group. Not John, you were right.

those were undecideds who decided Obama had won the debate.

Oh, and it wasn't a ruse. It was confused, but not a ruse.

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slinky:

oh, and one other thing, looking away from opponent is not necessarily disrespect (although I admit the handshake is critical, and McCain blew that).

looking away suggests fear.

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vmval1:

Can we change the constitution and have the election tomorrow? I can't handle another month of this.

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slinky:

Failure to shake hands suggests rage -- uncontrollable anger.

More MMPI problems for McCain.

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slinky:

@vmval1

no, not part of the deal, unfortunately.

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decided:

news from RCP

Louisiana Rasmussen McCain 55, Obama 40 McCain +15
Connecticut SurveyUSA Obama 54, McCain 38 Obama +16
California SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10
Kentucky Mason-Dixon McCain 53, Obama 41 McCain +12
Tennessee Mason-Dixon McCain 55, Obama 39 McCain +16
Wyoming Research 2000 McCain 57, Obama 36 McCain +21
California PPIC Obama 50, McCain 40 Obama +10

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Paul:

Found an interesting poll in North Carolina - Wake County (Raleigh area) from PPP:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WC_926.pdf

In 2004, Bush won 51-49 in Wake County; current poll is Obama 55, McCain 38. In 2002 Dole won 55% of the vote in Wake County for Senate; current poll is Hagan 56%, Hagan 37.

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Justin:

::Change From Yesterday::
Obama continues to climb in Gallup poll

DailyKos.com / Research 2000 (Weight: 35% Dem, 26% Rep, 30% Ind)
Obama +1, McCain 0

Diageo / Hotline (Weight: 41% Dem, 36% Rep, 19% Ind)
Obama -1, McCain -1

Gallup (Weight: Unweighted)
Obama +1, McCain -2

Rasmussen (Weight: 39.0% Dem, 33.5% Rep, 27.5% Ind>
Obama 0, McCain 0


Average Change
Obama +0.25, McCain -0.75

Average Swing
Obama +1

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slinky:

Yes, McCain is in justifiable trouble nationally. We need to look closely at the battlegrounds, though.

Obama is currently speaking in Detroit and promising great things (from the point of view of rugged individualism, that I mentioned last night).

The problem is that as a nation we are broke.

I hope we can fix that somehow.

I guess we absolutely need Obama, way more than he needs this job.

I suppose I've thought that for a while.

Inspiration is a priceless thing.

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vmval1:

Map from Obama+8 to Obama+64 (no toss ups)

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thoughtful:

@Slinky

"You were wrong" was powerful but was expected.

The only purpose of the debates is to capture the undecided.

It wasn't confused they needed to change the News Cycle from 9% Obama lead and Big Mo in the polls and they did!

They presented us with a man putting country first in front of his own ambitions. But he got called out on that in his first TV interview.

Never happy mornings for John McCain.

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slinky:

@paul, interesting from NC. I wouldn'ta suspected it.

@justin, the surge is apparently not over.
(hahahahahah).

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Paul:

I am correcting my post for a typo:

Found an interesting poll in North Carolina - Wake County (Raleigh area) from PPP:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WC_926.pdf

In 2004, Bush won 51-49 in Wake County; current poll is Obama 55, McCain 38. In 2002 Dole won 55% of the vote in Wake County for Senate; current poll is Hagan 56%, Dole 37.

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Eternal:

Isn't it funny that for all the talk about D/R/I breakdown KOS is between rassmussen and gallup.

Funny....

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Justin:

Indiana is way overdue for a poll.

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slinky:

@thoughtful,

It is very important to understand the psychology of your opponent.

McC realized, at some point last week, that he had misjudged the severity of the economic problem and decided he needed to do something (honestly). I think Obama went through the same process, but he was quieter and more introspective about it. I went through a similar process.

McC then decided he needed to do something in a big way. Was he grandstanding? yes. Was that a typical impulsive decision? Yes. Was Obama more circumspect (yes).

No one is sure how this thing will pan out. But, under these circumstances, conciliation, negotiation and compromise were called for, and McCain had failed those tests before walking into the room at Old Miss.

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slinky:

@thoughtful,

The practiced pounding that Obama gave with the flurry of 'You were wrong' during the debate elicited the greatest single burst of emotion during the debate. I was fearful that the Ahmedinejad remarks would be that -- but they weren't. The debate could easily have gone the other way, but it didn't.

I hope you see that I really DO get the core of what's at stake here and I really DO understand how to win it. Now, whether Americans will do the right thing, or just the expedient, and not too well thought out thing, is still in question.

I still cannot believe that they voted Bush in over John Kerry (who I knew and worked for), but they did.

So, now, all I can say is: God Save the United States of America and give us the wisdom to do the right thing.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@ thoughtful (regarding Obama's demeanor during the debate): agreed 100% and it is VERY hard for me to agree on this point. My instinct tells me Obama should've gone for the jugular while he had the old man on the ropes. My instinct would had me engage McCain on his condescension and tone. Guess that is why I am not running for a public office.

Obama was obviously anticipating the attacks and the tone, and McCain simply played into the trap. You could watch those real time meters on the undecideds, and they dipped every time McCain attacked and rose in unison with the Dem line every time Obama spoke.

That much has already been discussed yesterday, afair. What is great to realize, is that Obama LEARNED from '04 and '00, anticipated Rovean tactics and had a perfect counter even LIVE. They knew at Barack's hq what would best win over the undecideds, and they played it perfectly and counter instinctively. I would have played that hand differently and prob. lost.

fwiw.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"People are starting to question the old man's erratic behavior."

I agree, and this makes the next Hail Mary he throws less likely to work.

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slinky:

Axe is well practiced, huh?

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thoughtful:

@ slinky

We agree at outcome but not on rationale.

He realized the previous week with his sound economy statement that he was out of touch.

Wednesday Morning only 2 stories in the news cycle both very bad news for McCain.
9 points down in the poll, and a deregulated Financial Sector that he had been involved in creating about to bring the entire Main St. economy down.

So he deflected both, on a grand scale, played the Hero rather than the villain.

Ok temporary respite still down in the polls, but the story line of how he and Graham deregulated us into this mess hasn't had the air time it may deserve!

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fed:

Those Mason-Dixon polls od Ky and TN are interesting, they show a gain of 6 points for Obama from the polling avgs of both states. Ky is surrounded by battleground states, gues we have to wait if such a strong shift towards Obama tips some of them

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slinky:

Yes, that's what we are likely to hear next. That the whole grand solution was McCain's handiwork. That's what David was apparently arguing about with Schmidt about this morning on Meet the Press, but I didn't see it. I heard it was good, though.

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Ulysses:

I think everyone should keep in mind that the McCain campaign undoubtedly will unveil some heavy artillery in terms of negative advertising in the next few weeks... due to having very little else to do to erode Obama's burgeoning support. I would bet that on Tuesday of this coming week, or even just before the VP debate (to keep the debate focused on Obama, not Palin), they will unveil a major assault. This will change the polls again... Obama downward by a few points, but also McCain down... the rest returning to Undecided.

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slinky:

@U,

Probably right.

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thoughtful:

@ Slinky

Republican tactic is to deflect, throw off course, not really address the real issues. But invent distracting issues that put them into better light.

This whole election started to turn when the Obama Campaign called McCain a Liar on the previous distract Lipstick etc. and just moved on into issues.

Yes there is some fear for McCain looking into Obama's eyes. The same irrational fear that causes him the red mist to descend and a loss of reason. there is a huge resentment of the polished AA silky smooth Senator and President in waiting in front of him. you know the man who just doesn't iunderstand, just doesn't get it - even though he found some common ground of agreement with McCain.

The real gotcha moments for the neutrals as McCain came across as not having rationale.

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Paul:

As listed on this web site, McCain has retracted Palin's comments on Pakistan:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/28/mccain-retracts-palins-pakistan-comments/

McCain's explanation of Palin's comment and her statement says it all.

Would seem that whether or not the US should take unilateral action in Pakistan (Obama says yes, apparently McCain says no --- why would that be?) to take out Bin Laden/top terrorists would be understood by McCain and Palin - that they would be on the same page.

McCain's statement as to what Palin is supposed to say --- always in the best interests of US security is all McCain wants Palin to say regardless of the question. That is essentially the line she used with Katie Couric. But this time she departed from the standard line ... uhoh!

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atreides:

I'm worried about the Palin debate. I think that she has lowered expectations to a point that she will come off good if she's just coherent. She been so bad that I think she is attack proof. If Biden comes after her on anything (witchcraft anybody), he'll come off as condescending and elitest. What do you guys think?

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slinky:

Palin will likely win the debate for the reasons you suggest, and overconfidence of Biden. I know Biden. He makes mistakes.

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slinky:

Pakistan is a hornet's nest.

I saw that retraction and wrote about Pakistan earlier today:

linky:

The Pakistan mess:

This is a very difficult issue and should be made off limits for both Presidental candidates. In brief, the problem is:
(1) Pakistan is a nuclear power.
(2) Generals in Pakistan are in charge of the weapons, not necessarily the new civilian President.
(3) We are pretty damn certain Osama bin Laden is in Pakistan.
(4) We are pretty damn sure that there are parts of the military/secret service of Pakistan that are protecting Osama bin Laden.
(5) We are absolutely carrying out cross-border operations into Pakistan (if this is news to you, please wake up).
(6) We can't officially say what we are doing, because all hell would break loose diplomatically with Pakistan (although everyone knows).
(7) We have every right to do what we are doing, as long as we don't cause a nuclear holocaust.

(8) Hence my difficulties with this news story about Palin, even though it appears to favor the Obama camp. The problem is that a comment on it is so diplomatically difficult that it would be better if it wasn't discussed in detail, for

(9) all concerned.

Posted on September 28, 2008 1:13 PM

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thoughtful:

@MNLATTELIBERAL

Do you have any idea of how much Obama has got under McCain's skin?

The angst actually shows in his eyes.

Does Obama really need to humiliate McCain to win the election? I don't think so.

Indeed by not humilating him he wins more friends, it seems to me that he is almost toying with him. I accept Slinky's "you were wrong" straight jolting jabs. They don't disorientate or disarm.

Absolutely masterful, its like watching Mohammed Ali rope a doping George Foreman!

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Isher:

@Paul

That PPP poll is pretty funny, as it's a push-poll against the local incumbent. Nice to see they're helping at lower levels.

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slinky:

@thoughtful,

David Brooks, of NYTimes, who has all but conceded the election, explains that McC has no real core message.

This is not a surprise to those of us who understand that, at core, he is an alpha male egomaniac psychopath, who is having some grandiosity problems. Ergo, he has no message to deliver other than 'I am the great one; worship me'.

It's a problem. But then, aside from 'compassionate conservatism' (whatever that means...), W., had no message either -- and he won anyway.

So, I give up on this score.

Incidentally, the Woodward book out today on GWB apparently almost tells the truth about this failed person and presidency (Worst ever, Hillary and I agree).

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slinky:

That's exactly what it was intended to do: A debate is just like a prize fight. Exactly: I learned in the same school (literally).

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slinky:

I hope the Davids will work with Biden over the next few days.

I think I will write them and suggest they stare at this page.

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Morssa:

Why aren't the polls being posted?

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thoughtful:

@Slinky

McCain and Bush are not that different in terms of the burden of matching their father's expectations hang ups featured in the forming of their character and lives.

You are absolutely right about McCain being a Psychopath. I'd wish his Navy files would be released!

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Organian:

Do not count your chickens before they are hatched. Here is a scenario under which McCain can still win: As election day approaches there is a tendency for voters to return to their traditional partisan leanings. Combined with a weakened but still existing Bradley-Wilder effect, McCain is able to close most of the current gap. Obama carries all but one of the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. McCain carries New Hampshire (where he has been relatively popular since the 2000 primary campaign). This would result in an electoral vote tie of 269 to 269. According to the U.S. Constitution a tie in the Electoral College vote for President is broken by a vote by Congressional delegation. For example: The 53 member California Congressional delegation meets. They vote on their Presidential preference. The majority of the California Congressional delegation supports Obama. He gets one vote. The Congressional delegation of Alaska also meets. Don Young votes for McCain. His vote also counts as "one vote". Although we do not know what the partisan make-up of the next Congress will be, it is entirely possible that McCain could be elected by the Republican Congressional delegations from small states. Incidentally, the Vice President would be elected by a majority vote of U.S. senators, with each senator having one vote. Presumably the Democrats will have a majority which would mean that Biden would be McCain's Vice President. This election cycle has been so strange that I would not totally discount such a possibility.

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VermontWisdom:

I agree with those that say only a McCain surprise or an Obama misstep or vile secret revelation can change the dynamic of this race. Rather than a Palin wedding I see a Palin withdrawal due to "family" reasons and a Kay Bailey Hutchinson subsitution. I don't think it will be enough but I think with Palin he loses. And his team knows it. They have proven they will do anything to try to win.

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IndependentThinker:

@atreides

Today I heard Gloria said on CNN that as far as the Palin's expected performance in the forthcoming VP debate that the bar is at such a lowest level that it's on floor (Believe me I am inventing that!)...My thought is even it's on the floor she could even go as low as the underground based on those prior interview she has already had
I've been thinking about how she could end up without making a gaffe. Like her or not it's very hard to admit that she's not clueless even some McCain campaign members utter off camera that the last interview she gave was a fiasco.
Having said that, I think the Obama campaign is aware of the possibility that Biden could be condescending but because of the debate format I would say it's very unlikely

I strongly think that Biden is going to be calm and focused on issues, not trying to make any political points by attacking her at a personal level, it's largely enough to make her look clueless as far as policies are concerned

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Robi:

Polling during the primaries has shown that the bradley effect is bogus. the pollster average of every poll during the primaries has been about right.

For everyone who would not vote for Obama because he's black, there must be at least one person who would vote for him because he is black. They balance out the fringes.

____________________

Robi:

Being condescending to someone doesn't have to be because they're a woman. It could just be because she's an idiot and Biden has had enough of her silliness.

____________________

Paul:

In response to Organian's 269-269 scenario:
The likelihood that Republicans would control more states vis-a-vis House seats is minimal. They would have to flip several key seats now held by Democrats. Problem for the nation is that the constitution says we have to use the next House which is not installed until January.

I expect that if a tie scenario begins to look more likely, that the key house seats in question will get a lot of attention.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@Organian:

Frankly, I don't know much about the process in case of a tie 269-269 but based on what I heard on TV and read on blogs (even from Republicans) a tie = an Obama win because democrats have the majority in Congress.
I agree not to count your chickens before they are hatched

____________________

thoughtful:

There is more of a possibility of an Obama landslide than a 269 tie, the way the trend is going.

On the RCP map with no tossup Obama has 311 EVs.

GOP 527s , more stunts bring it on!

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

boomshak, we're all waiting patiently for you to spew your nonsense!

____________________

change:

Man-o-Man mcsame had an awful interview on this week, it was pathetic! and did anyone hear Mcsame say horse**** during the debates..it was when obama was criticizing him for not talking to Spain.

and guys just ignore boomshak, he's screwed in the head, honestly i think Bush is even better then Mccain

____________________

slinky:

I think the Repubs. will do anything to keep this election out of the HofR or Senate. If that mean lying, cheating, stealing, (maybe killing), certainly Supreme Court appeals, that's what the Repubs. will do. In case of tie, McCain wins. I am pretty dern sure of this.

____________________

Robi:

We all know that Rasmussen is a liberal biased poll....oh wait....

Gallup's is even more stunning considering the 50-42 polling. an 8 point lead with 37 days left? Wow. But I want to see state polling now to see if this thing is getting better for Obama EV wise.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@Robi

I totally agree with you according to pollsters Obama had pretty much the same support among whites as suggested prior polls
Nevertheless, they notice something that's worth talking about and that might change the outcome in some key states such as NC,VA,FL in his favor which is the reverse of Bradley effect

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

hey, guys, I feel I must speak on my buddy boomshack's behalf. Yesterday he gave us a link to a great site where young Ms Palin parades in a bathing suit during her Ms Wasilla days. In any case, largely thanks to him, I've been poking a bunch of right wingnuts with a stick for the last 12 hours or so. And without him, I would not have had the pleasure. So, "leave Brittney alone!"

Oh, and his link, btw, is worth a looksie, imho:
http://sayanythingblog.com/entry/video_sarah_palin_in_the_miss_wasilla_contest

____________________

Robi:

I just saw on CNN that Palin was in Phili getting a cheese steak and a student questioned her (way to go students!) about Pakistan and going in Pakistan without their permission if they knew where Bin Laden. She said that they would.

Oopsy. I guess she needs to talk to the McCain campaign for some talking points to clear that up.

____________________

Robi:

where bin laden was**

____________________

slinky:

robi,

please search the word pakistan on this webpage to understand the quicksand you have suddenly discovered.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@MN

I kind of miss him. Is anyone going to step up and take over his role as the village idiot?

____________________

Viperlord:

At Robi: Amen. McCain's pussyfooting on Pakistan is ridiculous and shameful, he doesn't support taking out terrorists, but he does support invading countries that had no terrorist connections, and occupying those countries for as long as possible.

____________________

slinky:

REPRINT

Pakistan is a hornet's nest.

I saw that retraction and wrote about Pakistan earlier today:

slinky (wrote (see time stamps below)):

The Pakistan mess:

This is a very difficult issue and should be made off limits for both Presidental candidates. In brief, the problem is:
(1) Pakistan is a nuclear power.
(2) Generals in Pakistan are in charge of the weapons, not necessarily the new civilian President.
(3) We are pretty damn certain Osama bin Laden is in Pakistan.
(4) We are pretty damn sure that there are parts of the military/secret service of Pakistan that are protecting Osama bin Laden.
(5) We are absolutely carrying out cross-border operations into Pakistan (if this is news to you, please wake up).
(6) We can't officially say what we are doing, because all hell would break loose diplomatically with Pakistan (although everyone knows).
(7) We have every right to do what we are doing, as long as we don't cause a nuclear holocaust.

(8) Hence my difficulties with this news story about Palin, even though it appears to favor the Obama camp. The problem is that a comment on it is so diplomatically difficult that it would be better if it wasn't discussed in detail, for

(9) all concerned.

Posted on September 28, 2008 1:13 PM

Posted on September 28, 2008 3:27 PM

____________________

glober:

This really is a great country. One year ago, a lot of people were not ready to elect a colored POTUS. Now they probably are. And guess what? The people giving this +5/+6 edge to Obama now are the exact people who weren't willing to vote for him just months ago. And please don't blame them. They were raised in racial prejudice. But now the one thing that concerns them is their country, and their future. God bless them for making the right choice!!

____________________

Von_in_WA:

VP debate predictions:

Palin may have relatively low expectations for the VP debate, but I'm not sure beating the expectations of the pundits means much to the voters. Many voters entire impression of Palin is her VP acceptance speech, so that is in fact a high expectation. Instead, I think debates reinforce expectations. Look at the last debate. Obama was shaky on his responses on the economy and the bailout, but he was widely perceived to have won that aspect of the debate. This is because voters expected him to win on economy-- just bringing up the issue was enough for him to score points, regardless of what he said. Palin may not sound as idiotic as she did in interviews with Gibson and Couric, but still she will undoubtedly come off ditsy. While she may do better than the lowest of expectations, voters will still see an extremely unpresidential candidate. The VP debate will bring up this issue, which is a loss for McCain-Palin.

____________________

serpounce:

The worst part for McCain in my mind is that Obama has hit 50% in 3/4 of these tracking polls. That means that McCain can't just convince undecided voters, he's going to need to get people who are currently planing on voting for Obama to switch (or work the electoral college in his favor, but that appears to be unlikely, if anything Obama seems to have a point or two of leeway with the EC situation).

____________________

NW Patrick:

Keep fighting DEMS. Don't get complacent. We need EVERY single person to vote.

____________________

change:

@Kerrchdavis

don't you agree Palin's debate with Biden will officially end Mcslimeball's campaign. Here is a woman who pretty much couldn't successfully manage an interview with Katie Couric, how will she last an hour and a half with Biden? She also says her proximity to Russia makes her experienced on foreign policy. I see this debate as a nightmare for the mcslimball camp

____________________

zotz:

I think where Obama won the debate was when he was talking about his priorities. Early childhood education and health care was Obama's answer and McCain said the military was his main priority. Obama knew he was trying to win white women voters and that was where he did it.

The economic issues combined with McCain's negative body language decided the debate.
Several pundits (Roger Simon, David Broder) on the other hand saw McCain's contempt in a positive light, as strength or toughness, showing that they have misread the public mood.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@change

My expectation is certainly that its going to be pathetic and I expect the McCain campaign to try every trick in the book to get her out of it. That and she'll be studying her butt off trying to cover all the major talking points.

However, I still think it is important to talk up her expectations as much as possible. That way, even if she falls apart like the farce that she is, its an ever bigger win for us.

Pay close attention to how much campaigning she actually does this week. She might spend most of her time in preparation.

____________________

HaloFan:

My question is
Have yor heard Pelosi?
what kind of meds is she on?
my gosh..................
She mumbles............... if palin did that .....
anyways,,, what a load of crock.

____________________

change:

can you believe this moron actually suggests that her states proximity to Russia enhances her foreign policy credentials.. i mean im not a politician but i would never say that, its just stupid!

____________________

change:

@halofan

don't ever compare the bimbo beauty pagent winner with speaker pelosi .... if it wasn't for democrats, republican actions would have resulted in complete anarchy.... there is a reason that democrats are winning seats everywhere.. a big reason!@

____________________

Stonecreek:

NEWSFLASH: No more "maverick"! If you saw McCain on Stephanopolous this morning, you will note that he did not use the word "maverick", his here-to-fore mantra, even once. Instead, he managed to call himself a "Teddy Roosevelt Republican" FOUR times in a 12 minute interview. Does anyone smell a focus group result here?

I suggest that this gives rise to a new debate-watch drinking game: Every time Sarah Palin calls herself or McCain "a Teddy Roosevelt Republican", you take a drink. The danger is you may lose consciousness somewhere prior to the closing statements.

____________________

CaliforniaIndie:

Any one know why Real Clear Politics pulled NC from McCain to Obama in their overall projections? I didn't see a new poll from NC this weekend.

____________________

HaloFan:

anarchy??
what are you talking about?
Thanks goodness for the house repubs.
The dems where rady to bend over and take it, what ever was given to them, untill mccain and the repubs steped in.
and that my freinds is the FACT

____________________

Angus Mc:

CaliforniaIndie,

The last 3 polls (dating back to 2 weeks ago) show these results: TIE, TIE, Obama +2. So their average shows Obama with a razor thin lead.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Teddy Roosevelt Republican. LOL Average American voter's response - " WHO? " LOL Good one McCain, that'll work!

____________________

NW Patrick:

CaliforniaIndie RealClearPolics.com no toss up map is how the average of all polls are as of today. (Assuming the election ended today and the poll averages were 100% acurate.) Obama is up in NC on average now so it went blue. As did VA, and Colorado.

____________________

zotz:

RCP averages the last four polls. For NC recently there have been two polls showing it even, one poll showing McCain at +1, and one poll showing Obama at +2.

It looks like a trend to me.

____________________

Dana Adini:

idoubt biden will underestimate Palin. In his last 2 interviews he said he expects a tough debate. He knows she is getting 14 points (oops that's a McCain term) so he needs to be real sharp to cover

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@halo

If that is a FACT, give us a source.

I'll give YOU a fact:

Obama is leading in every current national tracking poll by 6-8 points.

This is happening because America is starting to wake up. America is realizing that McCain and Palin are both jokes.

You're a dying breed halo. The troll race is going extinct.

____________________

slinky:

the house repubs. did not build the bill. the bill was built *mainly* by Barney Frank, after numerous Business commentators on MSM, argued that it was unprecedented abuse of Fed. Power. Barney Frank will be the unsung hero of this compromise.

____________________

metsmets:

AP 5:15 EST In a surprise move, both the McCain and Obama camps agreed to replace the VP debate with a spelling bee. "We must improve the ratings! We can't sell all this talk-talk stuff." said a spokesman for the major networks. After an idea that the VP candidates be contestants on a special edition of "DEAL or NO DEAL", was rejected as too "confusing", the spelling bee was the compromise choice.
Fox News has started a petition that the words be limited to five letters or less. They explained that the crawl at the bottom of the viewer's screen was ideal for words of five letters or less. Like: BUSH, WAR, TAX, GAY, and NASCAR. A spokesman stated later that he didn't mean to include NASCAR, he wanted MOM and DAD and HONOR instead.
CBS was arguing that words of any length be allowed - like RATATOUILLE, REPROCHEMENT, and HYPOTHETICAL. Discussions are continuing.
A spokesman for the White House said, "this is a ridick..stoopid..DUMB way to select a person who was one heartbeat from the "Leader of the Free World!"

____________________

Organian:

@ Paul and Independent Thinker

In the current (110th) Congress, Democrats constitute a majority of the delegations of 25 states. Republicans have a majority of the delegations of 23 states. Arizona is tied 4 - 4 and Kansas is tied 2-2. So the current line-up of state Congressional delegations is Democrats 25, Republicans 23 and tied 2.

The relevant part of the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution reads as follows:
"The person having the greatest Number of (electoral) votes for President, shall be President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states , and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other Constitutional disability of the President."

Translation: Assuming a 269 to 269 electoral vote result and no change in the partisan make-up of the next Congressional state delegations, and that Democratic Congressmen vote for Obama and Republican Congressmen vote for McCain, then Obama would receive the votes of 25 states. According to the terms of the 12th Amendment he would need 26 to be elected President and he would not have them. Under this circumstance (and assuming a majority of Democrats in the new Senate) Joe Biden would become President in March, 2009. Now that would be a strange conclusion to an election full of strange events.

____________________

slinky:

Like I said before, the Repubs. will lie, cheat, steal and pay off the Supremes before the election will end up in Congress. If it's a tie, the Repubs. will win it; even if they have to use guns.

I live in the real world.

____________________

slinky:
____________________

NW Patrick:

You guys are so funny debating a tie. Obama will win a min of 280+ electoral votes and I'm confident besides Colorado, NH, and IA and Kerry states he will also at Min. pick up one of OH, IN, NC, MO, or VA. Keep dreaming of a tie, that's your BEST case scenerio. People are paying attention and the polls are dramatically pulling away.

____________________

Tyler:

@Organian

Your count is suspect. Where are you getting 25 D delegations and 23 R delegations? From the information on Wikipedia, it looks like 27 D / 21 R / 2 tied: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives

Now Wikipedia isn't the most authoritative source out there so if you have a better source for an easy digest of congressional makeup, please post it.

____________________

VonnegutIce9:

You should see the ads McCain is putting out in Wisconsin...truly desperate...but fortunately, laughably desperate...one of them had a looming shadow covering the earth and ended with the always classy "looming shadow on baby"...

____________________

slinky:

@NW,

I am absolutely not disputing that it looks like a clear result is coming.

In case of tie, I know what the Repubs. will do. I grew up with them. I grew up with the other side also, and I know what they will do. The Repubs. are not respecters of law or rules. The Dems. are. It hurts to be righteous.

____________________

boomshack.fail:

Hey Boom

Stop peddling garbage. Your claims about the soldiers mother have been debunked.

She gave an interview to the AP.

http://www.nbc15.com/state/headlines/29864149.html

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/bracelet-wars.html

McFailure/Phalin' are toast!!!

____________________

cinnamonape:

I think Obama played this debate brilliantly. The game is all about two things...a) the independents who have doubts about his knowledge and demeanor, and b) turning out the vote.

The issue of race, recently being rediscussed after some polls suggesting racism still exists in the US of A...is something that the Obama campaign realizes. But he also realizes that this isn't the "racism" of the 1870's or even the 1950's or 1980's. People are far more willing to ascribe talents and capabilities to INDIVIDUALS while still holding onto prejudice against groups.

By showing a steady demeanor, while McCain attacked, twitched and refused to look at Obama...he scored points. And he even had the grace to accede points of commonality (as much as it may have driven his supporters nuts) to emerge as a guy who tries to listen and find common ground. My only gripe is that the better response to that would not be "I agree" but "I'm glad John agrees on that point with my Party" (Ouch), or "John shares the position that the Democrats have enunciated for decades" (POW), or "I'm glad to hear that, because I'm sure that Senator McCain will work with a me to convince his party on that point after I'm elected.'(Head explodes).

____________________

boomshack.fail:

Hey Boom

Stop peddling garbage. Your claims about the soldiers mother have been debunked.

The ex-husband just made stuff up and it should not come as a surprise that he is a Republican and McFailure supporter. Gosh, Bush/Cheney have rubbed off on you people.

She gave an interview to the AP.

http://www.nbc15.com/state/headlines/29864149.html

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/bracelet-wars.html

McFailure/Phalin' are toast!!!

____________________

zotz:

Most of you are probably familiar with the Rep attack on Obama for mentioning Sgt. Jopek's bracelet in the debate. According to the Rep attack Obama was going against the family's wishes in politicising the gift that Jopek's mother gave to Obama. I remember Sat. morning the Boomster was trying to score some points on this issue. Apparently, the father is a Rep and made the complaint but he is separated from the mother who supports Obama.

"Conservatives are now criticizing Obama for exploiting a fallen soldier whose mother has asked him to stop wearing the bracelet or mentioning her son's name.
I wasn't able to get through to Tracy Jopek, but she spoke to a reporter at the Associated Press today. She confirmed her ex-husband's recollection that she'd emailed the campaign to ask them to request that the senator not mention her son on the stump.
But she said she was "ecstatic" that Obama mentioned her son's hero bracelet during Friday's debate. That's because he was responding to McCain citing a different griveing mother's hero bracelet as a way to back his political views of the war in Iraq and citing the bracelet she'd given Obama was a good and appropriate way to remind people there are different views on this issue."
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/bracelet-wars.html

This may be a minor story but it is important because it is a part of the Rep smear campaign against Obama. We should celebrate every time we can slap down one of their lies.

____________________

cinnamonape:

BTW One problem with McCain labeling himself a "TR-Republican"...Teddy was involved with the introduction of the greatest number of regulations on corporations in American history to that point. TR was a "progressive" and put teeth into the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, introduced workplace safety laws, created the Food and Drug Act, tightened banking regulations to prevent a recurrance of the Recession of 1893, created the Interstate Commerce Commission, supported Unions in compelling industries to negotiate contracts, and (rather than destroying wilderness areas) created over 47 wildlife conservation areas and the first National Parks, etc.

His rise to leadership was mercurial- based on his clear intelligence and leadership skills- and he was viewed as a bit of a "celebrity", even by members of his own party. He had a charismatic demeanor and vibrant speaking style which made him vastly popular amongst the public.

McCain is no Teddy Roosevelt.

____________________

Justin:

@Tyler
Re: Organian

He made those numbers up. Wikipedia is correct. I have read that the incoming congress actually handles the vote so things may change some, but in all likelihood the Democrats will have a majority in the state count.

____________________

nomorerepubs:

I'm loving these polls. Over at RCP they just changed North Carolina from McCain to OBAMA on the no swing states map. Obama 301 Mcain 232?.
Can you say Republican meltdown?

The latest Mason-Dixon poll has Mitch McConnel leading his Dem challenger by only 1 point. The Repubs are going to be having a very very bad day soon. YIPEE

____________________

nomorerepubs:

Thats Obama 301 and Mcsame 237 sorry for the error.

____________________

slinky:

thanks for clarifying the bracelet (I think).

____________________

slinky:

I'm wondering if Barack had trouble pronouncing the soldier's name because he knew that he wasn't supposed to mention the bracelet, but decided to on the spot.

____________________

nomorerepubs:

I'm so sick and tired of the Repubs trying to make an issue of anything they can to try and divert attention from the ffact that the American people don't want Repubs any more until they get their act together. This bracelet thing is just another made up smear because they are losing and losing badly...I don't think it is going to work anymore.

____________________

slinky:

The 110 page pdf of the bailout plan is now at the NYTimes website. I got bored after p. 17.

You can read it and decide for yourself if it will work. It is certainly the largest bank failure, or set of bank failures in my lifetime, and my econ. professors all alleged to me that nothing like it would ever happen again.

Just shows to go you that very smart people can be incredibly incorrect.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Something in today's Rasmussen made me smile.

"Obama now leads by sixteen points among women but trails by six among men. Obama and McCain are essentially even among White Women, a constituency that George W. Bush won by eleven points four years ago. *****Obama is now supported by 13% of Republicans, McCain by 11% of Democrats.***

More Republicans are now supporting Obama than Dems supportig McCain. This is a great sign for those indpendents if you ask me. If Republicans are seeing the light, independents in droves aren't far behind.

____________________

slinky:

ok, @nomorep,

but,

the repubs are not all going to be dead, they're just gonna lose a bunch of seats and maybe the Presidency, and be sores in your ass for the next several years, so, get used to their crap!

I certainly am.

____________________

boomshak:

GALLUP VS RASMUSSEN:

Gallup is giving a 10 point sampling advantage to Dems, Rasmusssen 5.6 points. Reduce Gallup's advantage to Rasmussen's and bot are around +5 to +6 for Obama.

About 40 days to go. We'll see if Obama can retain his surge if the Dow goes up 1500 points in the enxt two weeks and gas goes to $3 a gallon.

____________________

slinky:

@NW,

agreed. This is a good sign for the future of the Republic. Maybe we can actually have an inspiring leader for once.

____________________

NW Patrick:

slinky thats nice you know the Republicans but a 269 tie results in nothing else than an Obama presidency. But nice FAKE #'s posted earlier. DEM counts in the house would never end in a McCain presidency.

____________________

change:

guys remember when mccain was up +10 in usa/gallup after the republican convention and we were all upset..oh my have things changed!

____________________

boomshak:

THE OCTOBER SURPRISE OBAMA PRAYS DOES NOT HAPPEN:

Israel bombs Iran. With only a few months left of a US Government they know will back them up, Israel may be very tempted to take unilateral action against Iran's nuclear weapons program.

If you thought the financial meltdown helped Obama, you ain't seen nothin yet if we are staring down the barrel of WWIII.

I think he chances of this, from what I've been reading, are about 50/50 if not higher.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I am really starting to think Obama's strategy at the debate was to NOT attack McCain. Remember, the guy in the lead doesn't need to STOOP and one of the great strengths for independents with Obama is his cool, calm, and collected way of leading. This might very well been the strategy.

____________________

boomshak:

God help the Democrats if Obama wins and they have no one left to blame. Whatever happens, good or bad, it will be 100% on them.

They have been the "vote for us because we're not them" party for 20 years. Will they be able to handle being the "we're them" party?

____________________

slinky:

If by some accident of providence or fate the Repubs. should get in, its very likely that the entire financial system would be in ruins in a short period of time. Here's why: They are ideologically and culturally opposed to the rules that would keep it from happening again. Here's an article by Floyd Norris of the NYTimes that explains it:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/29/business/29norris.html

God forbid the Republicans from winning. Please.

____________________

change:

@boomshak

first of all im officially changing you name to shyt for brains

second, how the hell did you find out gallups weightings?

third if you go to rcp average the dems enjoy a +10 advantage on the congressional generic ballot,

fourth, after the bimbo from alaska goes on national t.v and tells the american people that her states proximity to alaska gives her foreign policy experience= mccain's campaign is over!

On Nov.4 Barack Obama will be the next president, i cant wait to see the faces of racist hicks!

____________________

Uri:

Boomshak, Israel is not going to bomb Iraq.

Not only did Bush forbid it, but they will have as a new prime minister a woman who makes Sarah Palin appear overqualified.

Livni is a a backbencher who only got to where she got because Ariel Sharon wanted the top of his new party to consist of political jokes that could not be a threat ot him. She considers the agreement with Hizbollah (which has been violated from day one) to be a great success.

She's not going to lift a finger, and eventually ahmadinejad will bring about a second holocaust, just like most of the far left (and most of Obama's foreign policy advisors) are hoping.

____________________

slinky:

The Israelis are not bombing Iran this week. Tzipi Livini is trying to establish a government. Ehud Olmert is about to be indicted, or at least scolded, and efforts at renewing peace talks with the Palestinians are under way. Furthermore, the UN Security Council, with Russia's support yesterday, affirmed the sanctions against Iran. So the Iranians have plenty to chew on since Ahmedinejad (there, I finally got the spelling right), addressed the UN. Don't worry about it. It ain't happening.

____________________

slinky:

@uri,

No one is bringing a second holocaust. Russia will have to reign in the Iranians or will have hell to pay, themselves.

____________________

change:

@uri

first of all obama does support israel, second i have to say israel is the most evil country in the world.. i swear the devil must live there.

you guys constantly destroy homes of innocent civilians and put your own people there, you guys have killed palestinians at an 8-1 ratio, you guys are fuked! and all you jews with your big noses are so creepy and evil

____________________

slinky:

we are so liberal that we are antisemitic on this channel.

____________________

KipTin:

October Surprise may be tamer than that. Rezko is scheduled to be sentenced Oct. 28 and now he is talking to feds towards a deal on a reduced sentence. It looks like he is willing to cooperate in the corruption probe of the Illinois governor's (Blagojevich) administration. Obama's ties to Rezko are many. Even though Obama may not be directly implicated before election day, it has got to hurt.

P.S. Why hasn't anyone mentioned SNL's parody of the debate last night? From Newsbusters.org:

Below is a transcript of relevant portions of the September 27 Saturday Night Live:

JOHN MCCAIN, PLAYED BY DARRELL HAMMOND: Jim, what the American people need to understand, and what Senator Obama does not understand, is that the real problem here is excessive government spending, especially congressional earmarks and pork barrel projects. ... And how about this? $8.2 million for something called "Tony Rezko Hush Money."

BARACK OBAMA, PLAYED BY FRED ARMISEN: John, I withdrew that earmark right after [UNCLEAR WHETHER ARMISEN SAYS "I" OR "he"] began cooperating with prosecutors, and I think you know that.

MCCAIN: Senator, the fact is, to fund all the other programs, your planning will require a massive tax increase.

OBAMA: John, once again, you’re not being truthful about my proposals. Under my tax plan, not only would every American making less than $250,000 per year get a tax cut, so would most members of the Chicago City Council, as well as city building inspectors. That’s because my plan would not tax income from bribes, kickbacks, shakedowns, embezzlement of government funds, or extortion.

...

JIM LEHRER CHARACTER: Now, let’s turn to the topic of nuclear proliferation. Senator Obama, you have frequently been critical of this administration’s efforts to stop Iran and North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs.

OBAMA: I have.

LEHRER: What would you do differently.

OBAMA: First of all, Jim, I would use traditional diplomacy, something this administration has consistently refused to do. Should that fail, then and only then, would I try what I call "playing the race card."

[LAUGHTER]

LEHRER: And how would that work?

OBAMA: Take North Korea. I would ask Kim Jong Il to shut down his country’s nuclear weapons program. If he declined, I would say to him, "All right, I get it. I know why you’re really refusing to stop the program." And he would say, "No, what are you talking about?" And I would say, "It’s because I don’t look like all the other Presidents you’ve dealt with." And then he would say, "Wait, that’s not fair. That has nothing to do with it." And I would add, "That’s cool. I understand. I’m different. I’m not like the other guys on the $5 and $10 bills." It’s a long, delicate process. But eventually, he’ll have to give in.

____________________

boomshak:

WOW, YOU THINK THIS MAKES OBAMA NERVOUS? THIS JUST SCREAMS OCTOBER SURPRISE.

REZCO TURNS STATE'S EVIDENCE - OOPSIE!

"Antoin “Tony” Rezko, a convicted influence peddler who was once one of Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s most trusted confidants, has met with federal prosecutors and is considering cooperating in the corruption probe of the governor’s administration, sources told the Tribune.
Rezko’s possible change of heart—after years of steadfast refusal—has sent ripples through a tight circle of prominent defense attorneys who represent dozens of potential witnesses and targets in the wide-ranging probe.

His cooperation would give prosecutors investigating the governor and his wife access to someone they have described as an ultimate political insider at the center of a pervasive pay-to-play scheme.

____________________

thereisnospoon:

@boomsham

In case you haven't noticed, the middle class did worse even as the Dow went way up. The economy is gonna be the issue whether the Dow goes up 3000 or down 3000, but people can't pay their bills either way. You free-marketeers just don't get that.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is NOT a "center-right" country. It is, in fact, quite a liberal country.

On almost every issue polled, the American people are with the Dems or even to the left of Dems. Liberals held Congress for the overwhelming majority of the 20th century. FDR was a huge liberal, and was our most beloved president right until the day he died. Eisenhower railed against the military-industrial compmlex, and said that every bomb built was effectively taking food out of a child's mouth. Nixon said "we're all Keynesians now" and founded the fricking EPA. Nixon! And guess what? Americans hated the war in Vietnam just as surely as they hate the occupation of Iraq now. It--NOT the Great Society--killed LBJ's presidency.

So, what happened since 1980? Simple: the Civil Rights movement. Until the mid-70s, people understood that their tax dollars went to social safety nets and programs everyone loved. Starting with Reagan and the rest of you Movement Conservative ratf***ers, you used America's racism to convince people that their tax dollars were all going to poor, "lazy" minorities in inner cities. You flipped the entire racist South in your direction, which had been held by economically populist but virulently racist Dixiecrats. You Willie Hortoned your way through election after election, and even Clinton had to run on "welfare reform". You racist and homophobic f***ers used your lies to convince Americans to hate government "handouts" even as you stripped away the New Deal.

Your problem now is twofold: 1) people are beginning to see that all their safety nets are gone, and 2) every old racist homophobe that dies is getting replaced by a younger voter that accepts gays and minorities. Your time in the sun isn't just over: it's *permanently* over until you find a different way to win elections.

____________________

slinky:

OK, I now know the Rezco thing, and the 'boneheaded mistake'. Big deal. Do you think that level of petty antics is going to unsit Obama.

Cmmon...

____________________

Viperlord:

Wow, Boom and gang are going all out with the propaganda and lies, even though all of it has been proven false...... Why do I even read what Extreme Conservatives post anymore?

____________________

Viperlord:

Essentially, the extreme conservatives took power by pinning the crises of the 1970s onto the Democratic Party and Jimmy Carter.

____________________

slinky:

that's what I mean... they get crazy when they're losing... and they are hotheads. The problem is the lying and cheating. And, even though MN assures me they would never steal the election if the EV were 269:269, I know better. They would never let it get to that point. They kill one of the electors before it got there.

Anything to win.

____________________

change:

@Slinky

let me guess we are to liberal when we take into account the israel kills palestinians 8-1, or that they are destroy homes and putting their ppl in them, is that to liberal? or the fact that everyday Jewish neo-conservatives are pushing for wars in Iraq, are we too liberal when we speak the truth?

____________________

slinky:

Oh, you'd have to understand that not all the electors are bound...

____________________

KipTin:

Also in the news today... here is another article related to Rezko and ironically also the Illinois Mortgage Scandal that Obama is directly involved in. From Philadelpia newspaper "The Bulletin" written by Herb Denenberg (former Pennsylvania Insurance Commissioner, Pennsylvania Public Utility Commissioner, and professor at the Wharton School).....

Obama A Champion Of The Slumlords
http://www.thebulletin.us/site/index.cfm?newsid=20138568&BRD=2737&PAG=461&dept_id=576361&rfi=8

____________________

Viperlord:

Lol.... OMG! SOME GUY WHO OBAMA BOUGHT REAL ESTATE FROM IS A CROOK! OMG! OMG! KILL HIM! Honestly, you extreme conservatives are getting pathetic, trying to cast Obama as evil since you can't win on the issues.

____________________

slinky:

right, yeah, bad real estate dealings in Chicago gonna kill Obama's chances for the White House.

Gimme a break.

____________________

slinky:

I know more guys with property deals gone bad on the South Side of chicago than you can shake a stick at.

No way is he going down over this penny-ante stuff.

____________________

Viperlord:

All they can dredge up is propaganda articles it seems, people aren't falling for the smear tactics, so why do you idiots keep trying to use them? America isn't falling for petty smear tactics again.

____________________

change:

Palin is a pathetic beauty pagent winner that claims that her foreign policy credentials are enhanced because of her states proximity to Russia, same bimbo states that abortion should not be allowed even in cases of rape and incest! pathetic conservatives are in extinction in congress= thank god!

____________________

Bigmike:

Small time dirt won't get anyone anywhere. Come big or stay home.

McCain has been killed by the economic news and the "suspended" campaign. I don't think the debate was any real factor.

Instead of grandstanding, Mc could have just said something like, as the nominees it would be helpful if he and Obama were participating in the process and on board with the outcome. He made himself look desperate. And with Dems in charge of both houses, he left it up to them to determine the outcome. Which way did he think it would go? What a dipstick.

Did he expect Pelosi and Reid to come out and say McC saved the day? When they claimed they had a deal and McC ruined it, he got what he had coming. He gave them an opening and they took it.

____________________

KipTin:

Wow... This is from the Missouri Governor's office yesterday......

Gov. Blunt Statement on Obama Campaign’s Abusive Use of Missouri Law Enforcement
http://governor.mo.gov/cgi-bin/coranto/viewnews.cgi?id=EkkkVFulkpOzXqGMaj&style=Default+News+Style&tmpl=newsitem

--Gov. Matt Blunt today issued the following statement on news reports that have exposed plans by U.S. Senator Barack Obama to use Missouri law enforcement to threaten and intimidate his critics.

“St. Louis County Circuit Attorney Bob McCulloch, St. Louis City Circuit Attorney Jennifer Joyce, Jefferson County Sheriff Glenn Boyer, and Obama and the leader of his Missouri campaign Senator Claire McCaskill have attached the stench of police state tactics to the Obama-Biden campaign....."--

Police state tactics? Sounds more like Chicago politics to me.

____________________

macsuk:

KipTin

Your a desperate moron / troll

____________________

Viperlord:

"When in trouble, run in circles, scream and shout." This seems to hold true for the desperation of the Republicans.

____________________

slinky:

Bigmike,

McC DIDN't save the day.

Read my profiles above of Barney Frank, who did.

____________________

change:

@viperlord

it sucks for republicans that the rev. wright card has already been used, now they can't even think of any mud to through!

____________________

slinky:

now i guess you understand why Obama can't hope to win Missouri. Glad I don't live there anymore. Very corrupt state. Pulls that kinda stuff all the time. The lawyers there don't seem to be able to stop it. Wish they could get into the 20th century, never mind the 21st. St. Louis had segregated drinking fountains well into the late fifties, early sixties.

____________________

Viperlord:

Very true change, his supporters are reduced to pathetic attempts to tie him to Rezko. Lol, all Obama has to do is call McCain on his numerous lies and deceptions, and discuss the issues, and he's won.

____________________

change:

@viperlord

funny, how when the election becomes about issues obama rises in the polls, when its about mud-slinging its mccain- that says alot

____________________

Stonecreek:

The right-wing trolls, in the space of only thirty minutes, have come up with (1) Israel bombing Iran, (2) a stock market boom of 1500 points, (3) the price of gasoline falling by 25%, and (4) Tony Rezko as their serial wished-for October surprises. It has become clear by the way they have devolved from arguing about poll numbers to conjuring October surprises what they really think of the numbers trend: THE SAME THING EVERYONE ELSE DOES! Obama is on a roll, McCain is headed to electoral oblivian, and the only thing that can change it is for something astounding to happen. I think we're all pretty much in agreement here.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

niTpiK,

OH MY! I'm WORRIED about what Roy Blunt says!!!! I'm shaking in my boots, because EVERYTHING a Republican politician says has GOT to be the unvarnished truth!!

NOT!!

Your lord and savior, Ronald Reagan, made a big deal about so-called 'Welfare Queens'. How many DOCUMENTED welfare queens, driving Cadillacs to pick up their welfare checks. have been located?

And please provide proof. And until you do, STFU.

____________________

KipTin:

Here is something that got somewhat ignored last week because of the bailout news. From the Wall Street Journal...

"Obama and Ayers Pushed Radicalism On Schools"
By STANLEY KURTZ--

Despite having authored two autobiographies, Barack Obama has never written about his most important executive experience. From 1995 to 1999, he led an education foundation called the Chicago Annenberg Challenge (CAC), and remained on the board until 2001. The group poured more than $100 million into the hands of community organizers and radical education activists.

The CAC was the brainchild of Bill Ayers, a founder of the Weather Underground in the 1960s. Among other feats, Mr. Ayers and his cohorts bombed the Pentagon, and he has never expressed regret for his actions. Barack Obama's first run for the Illinois State Senate was launched at a 1995 gathering at Mr. Ayers's home.

The Obama campaign has struggled to downplay that association. Last April, Sen. Obama dismissed Mr. Ayers as just "a guy who lives in my neighborhood," and "not somebody who I exchange ideas with on a regular basis." Yet documents in the CAC archives make clear that Mr. Ayers and Mr. Obama were partners in the CAC. Those archives are housed in the Richard J. Daley Library at the University of Illinois at Chicago and I've recently spent days looking through them."

Read the details at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122212856075765367.html

____________________

VermontWisdom:

EIGHT pages on google calling Obama a brown shirt, fascist, jackbooted no good sob. Then we come to the truth.

http://www.news-leader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080927/BLOGS09/80927018

By the way, McCain has similar truth squads with law enfocement officers in many states. Can you just smell the desperation?

____________________

zotz:

It is an interesting story, although Blunt's statement is an example of ranting hatred. Apparently the Obama campaign is taking or threatening to take legal action against Rep 527s or other Rep ads. Great News!
Thanks Kiptin!

____________________

macsuk:

KipTin

Here is some more reading for you since you are into that kind of thing.

http://www.realchange.org/mccain.htm

____________________

KipTin:

Well, if these "prosecutors" are truly doing this on their own time then maybe McCaskill and the Obama campaign should APOLOGIZE for using their official titles in their announcement and not so hidden implications. Don't you think? READ the article you linked:

On Wednesday, Obama’s Missouri campaign announced U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill would lead a group of Democratic lawmakers, PROSECUTORS and one SHERIFF “who will be proactive in letting voters in the Show-Me State know the truth in the face of the distortions by the McCain campaign,” according to a news release.

The Missouri Truth Squad will “respond quickly, forcefully, and aggressively when John McCain or his allies launch inaccurate claims or character attacks about Barack Obama, or when they distort Barack Obama’s record or plans.”

In a conference call Saturday with reporters from battleground states, Obama national campaign manager David Plouffe said those who spread lies and mistruths about the Illinois senator have to be “held accountable,” but did not elaborate how.

They never said they would invoke their powers, but Republicans say just attaching their law enforcement titles to their names for political reasons gives off a perception of a police state.
----------

Got to love those Chicago Politics.

____________________

macsuk:

KipTin

In case you missed it

http://www.realchange.org/mccain.htm

____________________

KipTin:

I am only interested in FACTUAL and timely news.

____________________

macsuk:

KipTin

Or this of course

http://www.democrats.com/mccain-scandals

____________________

macsuk:

KipTin

No your not! Your a little mama's boy sitting in your mothers basement trying to pretend that you have a life.

____________________

zotz:

I think Plouffe meant that the Reps would get procecuted if they broke campaign laws. Great!
Let Roy Blunt have his little hissy fit. What's he gonna do?

____________________

VermontWisdom:

KipTin it evidently makes no difference to you that the McCain campaign does EXACTLY the same thing. There is only reason for this furor: McCain's internal polling in MO has the Republicans scared silly.

____________________

KipTin:

Keating Five? Are you kidding? Do you realize that FOUR of the five were DEMOCRATS?

In 1991, the Senate Ethics Committee determined DEMOCRATIC Senators Alan Cranston, Dennis DeConcini, and Donald Riegle had substantially and improperly interfered with the FHLBB in its investigation of Lincoln Savings.

Senators John Glenn (Democrat-Ohio) and John McCain were cleared and both successfully ran for re-election. This is the event that focused McCain on ethics reform and campaign financing. Get it? Not a scandal for McCain. And most importantly...no lies, no cover-up, no shirking his involvement. That shows character.

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change:

Guys, I know I keep bringing it up, but Palin's remarks about her foreign policy made better by the fact she can see russia from alaska - is truly disturbing! I have never heard something that stupid in my life! how the hell does john mcsame make such a dumb decision? The only reason i can think of is if he truly felt his base was going to abandon him on Nov.5, and catered to them with this righ-wing loon! This is really bizzare!

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change:

NOV.4**

____________________

Viperlord:

The myth of McCain's honesty, lol. He's been lying, both about his own positions and Obama's for ages, and flip flopping all over the place.

____________________

zotz:

change-
Uhhh...What did you say is going to happen Nov. 5?

____________________

change:

@viperlord

the level of of insanity from mcsame is ridiculous; he accuses obama of having ties to fannie mae, while putting seven of the top lobbyist in his campaign (mclobbyist.com.) he was asked today "don't you think you expose yourself to charges of hypocracy by accusing obama of having ties to Fannie and Freddie, while your campaign manager has taken hundreds of thousands of dollars from them?" (this week.)

____________________

Organian:

@Tyler & NW Patrick

My source for party make-up of Congressional delegations was Wikipedia. When I wrote them out I mistakenly listed Illinois and Indiana as R rather than D. The correct count is 27 Dem delegations and 21 Reps. A 269 to 269 electoral vote should mean that Obama would be elected by the House of Representatives.

____________________

Viperlord:

Indeed, he is the biggest hypocrite ever. Factcheck has been owning him for a long time, usually if they call Obama or Biden on a false ad, they at least have the decency to recall it. And I saw his ads running after he claimed to have suspended his campaign.

____________________

change:

@organian

hey isn't lieberman in the house of representatives and doesn't he account for the Democrats 51st vote, or is he in the senate?

____________________

Sarah McPlain:

Hay everybuddy. Make sure to toon into my big debate this week! It's going to be AWESOME :) :) :) I no a lot about the banking crisis two. I can see an ATM right across the street. That's even closer than Rusha!!! LOL. OK, gotta go back and cram some more for my BIG DAY!! Wish me luck. I luv u all!!!!!!!!!

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change:

Its gonna be a good ol' moose killing when i get back to alaska, lol

____________________

KipTin:

Uh... change... that was not Palin who said she could see Russia from Alaska, but rather Tina Fey as the Sarah Palin character on SNL.

What you can see easily see from Alaska all along the coastline are Russian fishing boats. Also do you remember that the U.S. purchased Alaska from Russia (1867)? And the name "Alaska" is Russian derived from Aleut language. Alaska is one of two states NOT bordered by another state (the other being Hawaii). Alaska is separated from the "lower 48" by 500 miles of Canada (a foreign country). Think about that.

But here is a tidbit that even makes Tina Fey's SNL character sound to be not exaggerating. So it is not a joke, eh?

"At their closest Alaska and Russia are 2.5 miles apart – the distance between Little Diomede Island, Alaska, and Big Diomede Island, Russia. The two islands straddle the U.S.-Russian maritime border in the middle of the Bering Strait. In mid-winter, when the Bering Strait freezes, it is possible to walk between the two islands – from American to Russia, from today to tomorrow, or from Russia to the United States, from today to yesterday. It is even possible to stand on the frozen Bering Strait, with one foot in America and one foot in Russia, straddling the frontiers of distant boundaries and time travel."

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/trade/2003/tad/russia/facts.htm

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NW Patrick:

Reading stories today that the McCain camp will go on full attack now for the remainder. Haven't they learned? LOL How PATHETIC.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Look at the crazies pullin' gossip news stories outa their hats. Desperation is setting in. Dangerous. Fight dems..we're almost there.

____________________

change:

@Kip Tin

Have you been taking some serious drugs?

very simply put: Just because you can see a country doesn't mean you have foreign policy experience, she said it and that is scary(cbsnews. katie couric), there are even conservative women coming out and asking her to step down! she is a bizzare right-wing loon!

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

____________________

NW Patrick:

Obama's performance on Friday night is now looking more and more brilliant. He looked more presidential. VERY important in debate #1. And on EQUAL ground with foreign policy. I'm still wanting to talk to Nick-Socal next week. Remember? McCain would erase all of Obama's lead and be up by EARLY this week. Can't wait to see!:)

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change:

I bet you guys anything obama will be up +10 by tuesday-in the gallup, and +8 in the rasmussen!

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Kip,
Are any of those four Democrats from the Keating 5 running for President? I forget. Sometimes I forget who it is running, and what arguments are relevant. Yours, though, is not one of them.

____________________

Organian:

@ Change

Lieberman is a Senator from Connecticut and would NOT have a vote for President in the event of a 269 to 269 electoral vote tie. He could (and based on his recent political activities I would bet probably would) vote for Palin for Vice President.

____________________

KipTin:

By the way, I think it is ironic for Obamanation to pick on Palin for her lack of "direct" foreign policy experience (which she actually has some that includes trade and energy) when Obama has NEVER been south of the border, but feels "experienced" to speak about Chavez as well as Latin America trade agreements. I am still trying to discover if Obama has even been north of the border (Canada).

Does he even know that Canada and Mexico are among our top foreign oil suppliers? From 9/15/08 report from U.S. Energy Information Office:

The top sources of US crude oil imports for July were CANADA (1.960 million barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (1.661 million barrels per day), MEXICO (1.200 million barrels per day), Venezuela (1.187 million barrels per day), and Nigeria (0.741 million barrels per day).

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Oh, and Kip, one other thing, McCain, afair, was not cleared or exonerated, but rather censured by his fellow Senators. It was out of contrition and sense of Country First that he decided to clean up, get onto the subcommittee and deregulate the living crap out of it.

Your stories about Rezko, rev. Wright et al are all old news, you FACTUAL and fresh news seeker, you. Those bones have been picked over and sucked dry and there is no marrow left in them, you hear? Hillary has sucked them dry. This story will not have any legs, I am willing to bet you.

Just like McCain campaign tempering with the Troopergate witnesses is subcutaneous in the MSM due the sheer size and volume of the bailout, so is your story, even if it made more of a splash. The timing is all wrong. The story is stale. It is boring.

FAIL.
NEXT.

____________________

KipTin:

Hey... what is irrelevant is the Keating Five in regards to McCain!!!

____________________

HumblerPie:

@MNLL

Thank you. Just wanted to reiterate. McCain was not cleared for his part in the Keating five. He was formally admonished for "poor judgment" by the Senate.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Kip, you are missing the irony and here it is. Pull up a chair and let me explain. Listen carefully because it might be a bit subtle:
The irony is that the McCain campaign that has been head banging its nuggin on Obama's alleged inexperience and lack of judgment then proceeds to exercise their experience and judgment by picking the most inexperienced and idiotic VP nominees since Dan...No, scratch that. EVER.
See the irony yet?

Their bashing stick has two ends, and the other end recoiled in their experienced face. Due to their own judgment. Pretty cynical.

____________________

KipTin:

Please find me a legitimate source where McCain was "censured" regarding the Keating Five because they did not even censure Cranston who was the most culpable.

FACT: The Ethics Committee ruled that McCain's involvement was minimal, and he was cleared of all charges against him.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

TY, Humbler
Kip, back to you. You are spewing nonsense faster than I can explain things to you. Could you please slow down to read in between your epiphanies? TIA

In any case, the point of whether Palin can actually see Russia on a clear day or if the Bering Straights freeze bridging sun, moon and the stars is irrelevant to the argument. It is a red herring. Yep. Red.

For it matters not how close Alaska is to Russia or Florida Keys are to the transsexuals. None of that gives Sarah an iota of foreign experience. She is a blank vessel devoid of intelligent thought. She can't even get a freakin' cheese steak sandwich in Philly without eating her foot. FAIL. NEXT

____________________

KipTin:

Hmmm... INEXPERIENCED President or INEXPERIENCED Vice-President???

Bad judgement... Years of very close association with Reverend Wright, Father Pfleger, Tony Rezko, Bill Ayers.

____________________

KipTin:

Well, done pushing Obamanation buttons for this evening. Maybe see ya tomorrow.

____________________

Ryan in MO:

It's reassuring to know that a potential US VP is in "Debate Camp" right now. I remember going to camp when I was young and learning life skills too.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

niTpiK,

I'm posting this again:

OH MY! I'm WORRIED about what Roy Blunt says!!!! I'm shaking in my boots, because EVERYTHING a Republican politician says has GOT to be the unvarnished truth!!

NOT!!

Your lord and savior, Ronald Reagan, made a big deal about so-called 'Welfare Queens'. How many DOCUMENTED 'welfare queens,' driving Cadillacs to pick up their welfare checks. have been located?

Please provide proof. And until you do, STFU.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Kip,
Wikipedia complete FACT: "the Ethics Committee ruled that the involvement of McCain in the scheme was also minimal, and he too was cleared of all charges against him.[37][36] McCain was criticized by the Committee for exercising "poor judgment" when he met with the federal regulators on Keating's behalf.[7]

So, the truth is, while it was not a full censure or reprimand, he was spanked. For what? Poor judgment. Now, where else have we heard issues with judgment of late?

Criticism by the hands of the Ethics Committee is not quite censure, but it is not a clean bill of ethical health. He ought not point his finger at anyone else for what he called the worst mistake of his life. I lived in AZ back then, and let me tell you, it STUNK. Keating 5 was all over the news, and McCain was at the heart of it.

As a result McCain wears the Keating 5 albatross around his neck for the rest of his political career. It is his Chappaquiddick. It is his Mary Jo Kopechny. He is dirty.

And he is 7 points behind.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Kip,
you brought up irony, and the ironic thing was, it was staring you squarely int he face and yet IRONICALLY you failed to notice it. The point was about irony, not your judgment calls about experience of Obama. Do not shift topics. You are not weaseling out of this one.

____________________

Leaderboard:

If McCain goes on the attack, then we'll know that it's all over for him. If, on the other hand, he tries a charm offensive, then we'll know his campaign people have half a brain, because charm is their only hope.

If you looked at those dial meter results that they showed on CNN during the show, you'd have seen that McCain's lines plunged whenever he went negative, including when he was telling Obama "you don't understand."

McCain MUST stay positive. Which is something he's perfectly capable of doing. He's got a great radio voice. Very soothing. We haven't heard it in a while, but it's there. That is the only John McCain who stands a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

(Palin also has to depend on charm, not knowledge. If she tries to go toe-to-toe with Biden, she's finished. She's got to do the hockey mom thing at every turn, and I think that's in fact what she will do.)

The problem for McCain is that not only are the debates moving to issues that are Obama's advantages, but the dynamics favor Obama in almost every way.

Obama has a lot more degrees of freedom. Knowing that McCain will be hurt every time he attacks, Obama's task is to gently needle McCain into showing his petulant, disrespectful, angry side.

This shouldn't be too hard, because it's clear that McCain personally dislikes Obama. He won't look at him and he won't extend normal courtesies that we expect of adversaries. McCain exudes anger in Obama's presence; he's not a gentleman, and it works to his disadvantage.

Yet, for McCain to overcome Obama's led, which now averages 6.5% in the trackers, he's going to have to attack. You don't make up that sort of deficit through happy talk. But attacks backfire on him. McCain's in a box, and he's used up his lifelines, i.e., surprises. One more "surprise," and McCain will be tossed on the scrap heap.

Four factors work for McCain. One is the Phil Donohue factor. When McCain is relaxed and at ease, he can really turn on the charm. Obama is a very steady, calm, cool cat, but the downside is an aloofness that I don't think he can naturally overcome.

The second factor is that the town hall format of the second debate plays into McCain's strength as a charmer. Town hall discussions are all about the personal touch. It is politics meets Doctor Phil, and that's where McCain is at easy and Obama is not.

The third factor is Palin. If she can bluff her way through her debate with charm, she could set up McCain for a charming presentation. The fourth factor is Obama's caution. He has been playing his campaign very defensively, as an exercise in avoiding mistakes. He's the mirror image of McCain the gambler.

This has been a very mixed bag. Obama's lack of boldness is at the root of him having lost his lead over the summer; he failed to respond to McCain's shift to Rovian tactics in July, and lost his lead. He spent much of September recovering from that, and from McCain's selection of Palin.

Even though McCain has reached the end of the easy tricks he can play, Obama's extreme caution makes him vulnerable to whatever new gambit McCain might play. I don't see what that tactic might be, but the reality is that Obama had chosen to play it safe so in a sense he's a sitting duck for McCain's next move.

If I'm McCain, I do whatever I'm going to do with a smile on my face. If I'm Obama, I stiffen my spine and I go on the offensive -- smoothly and politely, but the offensive nonetheless -- and force McCain to attack in response. If Obama can force McCain to lash out in anger, he'll seal his victory and perhaps augment it.

If not, I think the odds still favor Obama, but there'll still be more uncertaintly than there needs to be.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Kiptin is a joke. He is boomshaks librarian. Boom spews bull**** and Kiptin digs up bull****.

Remember when boom said yesterday he was going away to get laid? Well, you guessed it, him and Kiptin are producing an army of right-wing trolls.

Anyway, let them hold on to their hopes. And let them continue to spend hour after hour diggin up lies and fake sources to try and make themselvs feel better.

Pathetic. Fail.

____________________

common sense:

Go look at Intrade. Colorado and New Hampshire are going blue. Can't wait for Sarah's debate. Game set and match Obama.

____________________

metsmets:

The reason I post here is because I live in a solidly Blue State that will go to Obama any way. I will vote, surrounded by my Republican neighbors, and then go home to watch the results. My influence over the outcome of the election is therefore, almost non-existent.
The vast majority of you also live in states that no-one thinks will changes sides in this cultural war. Maybe twenty or thirty thousand people, who decide on the day of the election to vote, will decide this. They live in Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and possibly Ohio or Virginia. They have very little interest in politics - they don't visit sites like this - they don't attend political rallies - they just think about voting for about five minutes every four years - and they decide this!

Vent away here but don't forget one thing:

YOUR POSTS DON'T CHANGE ANYTHING!!

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

hey metsmets-
Unfortunately, that has been the case the last eight years. I disagree this time around, because there is a serious movement going on right now mostly due to the Republican failures. This election will be an Obama landslide.

On a side note, sorry about your loss today (Mets) but couldn't be happier, since I am a Brewers fan!

____________________

Stephencal:

Hi all, this may sound completely amateurish, but I made an Excel spreadsheet using Pollster info regarding the latest EV numbers (safe and lean) for each candidate Sunday Sept. 29. Obama 229, McCain 174, right?

For the battleground states I gave each state to the candidate who is currently leading according to the latest Pollster trend estimate. For example, NV, CO, MN and PA go to Obama; OH, NC and FL go to McCain. To try to be a bit conservative, I gave NH to Obama and VA to McCain, even though it is tied in both states.

What I found is that Obama still loses by 2 EVs…in other words, even with the current solid and lean states going for him, and even projecting NV, CO, MN, PA and NH, he still needs either Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina or Florida to put him over the edge.

So Obama simply must get one of those big states in order to win the election. Any thoughts on this? Or am I just stating the obvious? (I’ve never commented on a website before, BTW)

____________________

change:

@commonsense

your exactly right, Palin's debate will end McCain's chances for the white houses. This lady is way to dumb, and thats being nice to her. Some of her views, and her wild claims are the most deranged i have ever witnessed, she couldn't handle Kouric= a debate for an hour and a half will end it!

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brambster:

@Stephencal

Your numbers are off. You must be missing a state or something.

Kerry States + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado = 273 Ev's

You might want to just to to 270towin.com and use their interface to do your projections.

Note that there are 3 reasonably possible scenarios for a tie, but ties will be won solidly by Obama when each state's congressional delegation votes by majority with one vote per state. And although these are reasonable possibilities, that doesn't suggest it is likely. The race is not likely to stay tight to election day, and it appears that Obama just finally broke out.

____________________

zotz:

Stephencal-
No offense but I think you need a calculator. Math doesn't seem to be your best subject.

____________________

common sense:

Boomfail : your vey post name indicates the Boomshack is getting to you. Please - He is a GOP plant. Ignore him. If you think I am wrong about that just examine when he appears on the net. He always has a proclamation about anything remotely positive about McCain in about 30-45 minutes after it released from GOP headquarters. I enjoy reading this site. It reinforces my belief that America is ready for a change. Most of you seem to agree with me that McCain is not the answer. I hope, as do you, that Obama will be a good leader. Can I guarantee that. No. But he is our best bet.

____________________

richieBr:

@boomshack:


You are delusional if you think that Israel or the US is going to bomb Iran before the election. The moment the first bomb hit the ground, oil futures would go to $200/barrel and gasoline prices would rise accordingly; we don't have enough manpower to control the ground approaches to the Strait of Hormuz, thus the Iranians can shut down that waterway and choke off the 30% of world crude that passes through it whenever they want to.

Secondly, the moment the first bomb hits the ground, Shi'ites all through Iraq would pick up their arms again and look for the first US soldier or marine to shoot at - the southern third of Iraq would explode in violence. Also, Iran's nuclear program sites are so spread out and deep (as in underground), that Israel's air force would not be able to effectively destroy it. The Israelis simply don't have the capability of doing the job effectively. Further, Bush explicitly told the Israelis that he would not support them if they decided to bomb Iran.

McCain and the GOP are going down and they are going down big. McCain is going to lose by at least 10% points and be on the wrong side of an EC landslide. Democrats are going to flip at least 6 Senate seats, and there is a very real chance that they'll flip 8 or 9. In the House, the Democrats are going to pick up at least 20 seats, giving them the biggest majority in that chamber in over a generation.

After the 2008 elections, the GOP will be nothing more than a regional party. Every future election they'll be looking at the wrong end of demographics - you can't go demonizing Hispanics for the better part of a decade and not expect to pay a price for it at the ballot box. With Democrats capturing more than 70 percent of the Hispanic vote for the foreseeable future - New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Arizona are going to turn reliably blue. And it is just a matter of time before Texas joins them.

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vmval1:

I am so worried about this VP debate. I just don't see how Palin can possibly lose the perceptions comp. At this stage, if she strings together a 'Good Evening Senator Biden' she will win.

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onfire74:

It is more and more clear that Obama will win KERRY '04 states + IOWA, CO, & NM. That right there already puts him over.

The economy will help him take OHIO. And still pick off NC, VIRGINIA, INDIANA OR MISSOURI.

Landslide. THe big wave is coming.

____________________

brambster:

@vmval1

I don't see much possibility for upside on Palin's part unless Biden screws himself.

Although expectations for Palin are very, very low, it would be impossible for her to speak coherently with any depth in a debate on topics that she has less knowledge of than even I do.

I know she has performed well in Alaskan debates, but those topics were appropriate for her knowledge. She might well get some statements off in initial responses, but she will have to try hard to not make it look like rehashing talking points. Then the possibility of devastation lies in follow-ups.

I think the best thing for Biden would be to play it safe and only attack McCain's policies, and try to use big words and history/experience arguments, but not to take Palin on directly (the Obama campaign is clear that they don't want to shoot down).

I think the best thing for Palin would be to try and talk only about what she is experienced with, and when in doubt, redirect the question into an attack on Obama since she is more comfortable attacking than she is in discussing issues in depth.

I do not think this Palin strategy is a winner, but rather a defensive ploy designed to keep from embarrassing herself which of course is worse than just simply losing.

The worst thing that could happen to Palin is to give fodder for yet another really harsh SNL parody two days later after the press replays the clips for a couple of days. Avoiding this should be her one and only goal.

____________________

Robi:

Agreed, if a geologist were to go into a debate about seismic volcanic activity, he or she would do very well. But if that same geologist went into a foreign policy debate, then he would be screwed.

Palin can talk about what she does know fairly well from what I can see (one debate in Alaska).

But she's getting way to in over her head with subject matter she was asked to pick up a month ago.

People study foreign policy and the economy all their lives, you can't come into the know in less than a month.

____________________

Basil:

Questions Palin can win with:

How do you dress a moose?

If you can see Russia from Alaska, can you hear Russians on the radio too?

What's your plan to defend Alaska from a Canadian invasion?

What caliber rifle does it take to make a hole in a pipeline?

How many witches are there in Alaska?

When did you first realize you were in over your head?

Could you please take off your glasses and shake out your hair?

What time is it? (A trick question. Palin will look at her watch and give the Alaska time, while Biden will say "It's Howdy Doody Time!" No points.)

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common sense:

Please anyone - give me a good reason why I should not vote for Obama. What does McCain have to offer. Anyone with a spit of intelligence knows that he is not qualified to be President. Being old and a POW deserves deference - not a vote. Palin is an embarassment to genuine GOP'ers. For God's sake why can't you see that Obama represents all the America was meant to stand for. Yes I know that Jefferson owned slaves as did Washington. But I truly believe that given the passage of time their racism would have been modified. The only thing left for McCain is to play the race card - Rv. Wright /fist bump. I intend to dislay my American flag
on the night of November 4th. If McCain wins it will be at half-mast.

____________________

Basil:

If Palin becomes prez maybe we'll end up taking a star off the flag.

____________________

Stephen Wrght:

It will be a long and ugly five weeks - anything is possible. My guess is the republicans will conjure up some national security event that verges on emergency. Maybe Russian jets will be intercepted over Wasilla, Alaska.

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keytype123:

You Dem's can continue the conversation amongst yourselves-us McCain supporters are a bit dispirited.If we get a bit nearer in the tracking polls we might come back on site.Hope it is not to boring for you in the meantime-at least the juveniles will go away for a while.

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common sense:

@keytype : Please tell me why you are voting. for McCain. Doesn't Palin scare you$ I know- Biden has a big mouth ( the hair is scary too) and he is as Ben Stein said "No Rocket Scientist" but Sarah Palin ? For the love of God and Country tell me how anyone with an IQ above the level of a raccoon can vote for McCain/Palin?

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Stephen Wrght:

keytype123 - I can understand your being dispirited with McCain's poll numbers AND his behavior last week. But you should not suspend your involvement! The electoral race is still very close and this race could easily go either way. As a dem, I was very dispirited after the republican convention but I also realized there was plenty of time to turn things around. That is still very much the case for McCain AND Palin.

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Basil:

@common

Ben Stein's no biologist himself. And why are you insulting raccoons? ;>)

____________________

common sense:

@basil : Ben Stein has an IQ of about 190. He may be a former Nixon admin. troll but he is damn smart. Racoons have an unmerited reputation for mental acuity. I lived for a year (really) in Bismarck North Dakota and had an opportunity to attend their annual convention. The Grand Poobah was Phil Gramm as I recall. The rest of them were from Alaska except one fat guy from Brooklyn.

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Ryguy:

do you republican posters actually have anything intelligent or factual to say? i understand youre worried about your candidate winning this election, but keep some composure people.

____________________

common sense:

Just so you youngsters don't think I'm going
McCain - my last reference was toJackieGleason and "The Honeymooners". Good Night and drive carefully.

____________________

Ryguy:

do you republican posters actually have anything intelligent or factual to say? i understand youre worried about your candidate winning this election, but keep some composure people.

____________________

Basil:

@common

I figure I could win Ben Stein's money about 60% of the time, and my IQ is somewhat lower than your estimate of Stein's. His analysis of evolution vs creationism is an odd one, though.

As to raccoons, it's late enough at night that I can privately admit that I am one. In fact, sir, I was the fat (i.e. healthy, in raccoon terms) guy from Brooklyn. And, if you recall, I was the one that bit Phil Gramm in the ass. It's the Alaskan raccoons that are stupid. (I can still taste Gramm's ass. All that was missing were some fava beans and a nice Chianti...)

And it's not a mask. It's eye shadow.

Palin: scary and insane but hubba hubba!

Biden: scary looking, gaffe-prone, but basically rational and a good guy

____________________

boomshak:

STOCK MARKET PREPARES FOR BIG SELLOFF:

Kind of counter-intuitive. One would think market would rally on the bailout deal. However, Wachovia is teetering on the brink along with that big euro-bank, so that may be it.

That's why the stock market is so hard to trade. So ofte it does just the opposite of what one would expect.

POLLS:
Well, let's see if Rasmussen follows Gallup off the cliff of reality or starts pulling back towards the middle.

By my calculations, Rasmussen polled Obama around +5 Saturday while Gallup lost their minds Obama +11. I don't know what the deal is with Gallup, but I have NEVER seen a tracking poll with that large a sample make such huge swings week to week (15 point range). It really is odd.

I fully expect to see some more MSM polls with insanely biased weightings (which they won't announce) showing Obama up by 12 to 15 points and giddily declaring the race over.

____________________

boomshak:

A COMMENT ABOUT GALLUP:

Tere is something about Gallup's methodology that causes it to overshoot. It overshot Obama post convention to +8, then overshot McCain to +5 then overshot Obama to +6, then overshot McCain to even, now has overshot Obama to +8.

It really is VERY STRANGE for a tracking poll like Gallup to overshoot so badly. Perhaps the problem is that we have NO IDEA poll to what what his party weightings are - he refuses to tell us for some reason.

I read one article that whenever a candidate is rallying, he then overweights in their favor because he assumes more people will switch party affiliation with the trend. This in turn causes the momentum to overrun due to the shifted weighting.

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boomshak:

ON REASON FOR STOCK MARKET WEAKNESS:

Rumor is that the world is concerned that Obama may actually win. His complete lack of experience ACTUALLY DOING ANYTHING has investors spooked.

It seems they have enjoyed his pretty speeches, but now have to consider the idea of him actually steering the ship and they are running in panic to get off the boat.

On CNBC they are already calling this THE OBAMA SELLOFF.

-jk :)

____________________

boomshak:

P.S. To those illiterate liberals among us who don't have the higher brain function to get irony, the above comment is satire.

Thank-you, thank-you very much...

____________________

thoughtful:

Good Morning and a special Hi to Boomshak

The trackers will average +7 % + today and yes expect Rasmussen to be 51 - 44.

The biggest interest today will be on all the battleground polls released during the day culminating at 6 pm est.

Have a nice day!

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macsuk:

boomshak

The problem McCain has isn't Obama's numbers it's his own.
Ras 44%
Gallup 42%
Hotline 42%
Research 2000 43%

Correct me if I am wrong but you do not win elections with under 45% support. The Battleground Poll gives him 48% but only gives a 2% ID advantage to Dems.

____________________

boomshak:

WHAT MCCAIN NEEDS TOP DO TO WIN:

It's really quite simple. He needs to staop running against Obama and start running against UNLIMITED, UNFETTERED AND ABSOLUTE POWER BY LIBERALS IN WASHINGTON.

I am telling you, THIS is the key to victory. If he does not do this, he will lose.

**They also need to stop "overhandling" Palin and just set her loose. She needs to go nust with a full-throated attack on Obama's liberalism.

Obama is NOT as he appears to be. He is NOT moderate.

____________________

macsuk:

Obama is now tied with McCain in the Battlegound Poll. If Obama goes up 2-3 points in this poll with its inaccurate party ID percentages McCain is toast.

____________________

thirdparty:

boomshak:

Regarding your "Obama +11" claim. You're making false assumptions about what the Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls are doing day-to-day. In order to work it out properly, you really should be using an algorithm instead of just blindly guessing. But in this case, you don't really need an algorithm to show that your assumptions are misguided.

The reason that Gallup jumped is probably because a weak night for Obama fell off, and a good night for Obama went on. If you look four days ago, the overall figure went from Obama +3 to a tie. Which indicates that September 24 wasn't a particularly good day for Obama.

____________________

boomshak:

@thirdparty:

Wrong. As usual.

____________________

boomshak:

GWU Battleground poll: McCain 48, Obama 46

Lol, these guys don't mind swimming against the tide, do they?

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boomshak:

The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners are proud to add The George Washington University as the sponsor of the Battleground Poll. This project will now be known as "The George Washington University Battleground Poll." In addition, The George Washington University will serve as the official archive for all past Battleground Polls conducted to date.

The George Washington University Battleground Poll is a collaborative bi-partisan survey produced by Republican strategist Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democrat Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. This national polling program is unique to the industry, in that it offers the distinct perspectives of two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle. Battleground Polls are conducted, not for the benefit of any paying client, but to give the public a look at Americans' opinions and an inside peek at strategic recommendations for both political parties.

Initiated in June 1991, the Battleground Polls have gained widespread media recognition as reliable bellwethers of national opinion and voters' intentions. The Battleground data projected the outcome of the 1992, 1996, and 2004 presidential race more precisely than any other similar effort in the country, including those of the major TV networks and national newspapers. In addition, Battleground Polls have consistently been major predictors of what is going to happen in approaching Congressional elections. The firms are currently conducting a rolling national tracking poll with N=200 interviews per night on Sunday night through Thursday night. The most recent available data is below.

____________________

DaveAustralia:

If McCain has a another week like he just did (possible Palin debacle?), then Texas comes into play and were looking at a Reaganesque landslide.

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boomshak:

@thirdparty:

Regarding Gallup:

Like I mentioned in an earlier comment, someone with insider knowledge about how Gallup polls mentioned in an article that Gallup weights PARTY AFFILIATION based upon what he perceives as a candidate's current momentum.

If a candidate seems to have the momentum, he overweights their party affiliation assuming that independents will be swaying towards that candidate's party.

This has the effect of exaggerating momentum swings, as can clearly be seen in Gallup's polling. I mean, where else have you seen a tracking poll swing 15 points back and forth on a week-to-week basis?

Rasmussen, on the other hand, sticks with nearly the same weighting weekly, hence his much smaller swings.

I believe that right now, Obama is ahead by about 5 points. All McCain needs to do to move this back to a statistical tie is gain a point and Obama lose a point.

Very small advantage to Obama given the fact that every single metric has gone his way the last two weeks (not to mention the 24/7 MSM devotionals).

This race isn't over by a long shot. Obama is praying that Rezko doesn't mention his name.

____________________

boomshak:

@DaveAustralia:

"If McCain has a another week like he just did (possible Palin debacle?), then Texas comes into play and were looking at a Reaganesque landslide."

And if my aunt had balls, she would be my uncle.

____________________

boomshak:

DAILYKOS CONTINUES WITH THEIR DELUSION:

That only 26% of the electorate is Republican. I mean, c'mon, why do they even bother to publish this whe EVERYONE knows their internals are patently rediculous?

____________________

thirdparty:

@boomshak:

No, boomshak. You've done no calculations at all and you evidently haven't used an algorithm to calculate the values. For what it's worth, here are MY calculations for the last few days of the Gallup tracking poll, based on data estimates dating back more than a month. Unlike you, I've actually done some calculations. There are infinite combinations, but these are based upon minimising variation where possible.

15 Sep: Obama +2
16 Sep: Obama +4
17 Sep: Obama +6
18 Sep: Obama +6
19 Sep: Obama +5
20 Sep: Obama +2
21 Sep: Obama +6
22 Sep: Tie
23 Sep: Obama +2
24 Sep: McCain +1
25 Sep: Obama +7
26 Sep: Obama +8
27 Sep: Obama +9

For the record, boomshak, I did try inputting your prediction that Gallup was +11 on 27 September, and I ended up with a result which suggested that on 13 September, McCain got approximately +10. Do you seriously believe that, or is that just the hot air talking?

____________________

DaveAustralia:

@boomshak
"And if my aunt had balls, she would be my uncle."

haha, dont rule out Palin completely screwing this up and McCain going into meltodown. Indiana has to be close now as well and if McCain has to start spending money in those kinds of states, this is all over.

____________________

macsuk:

boomshak

You fail to mention that The Battleground Poll only does interviews Sunday - Thursday and only 200 daily at that. McCain went to Washington Thursday which means since his escapade only 400 people were interviewed. If you want to believe that one poll with a 2% DEM ID advantage is right and every other poll is wrong be my guest.

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vmval1:

They only have a 2% dem id advantage?????

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Research 2000 today has Obama up 9%!

____________________

boomshak:

@vmval1:

"They only have a 2% dem id advantage?????"

I don't know where you are getting that, can you link me?

As far as I can see from the internals of their polling, the BIG difference with them is that they say McCain still maintains an 8 point advantage with Independents whereas these other polls give MASSIVE advantage to Obama on that.

But even if the do only give a 2% advantage to Democrats, that is just as accurate as a poll that gives a 9-10 point advantage to Democrats and I never hear you complaining about them.

____________________

thirdparty:

@vmval: it's 3% (or 2.97%, to be more accurate). Still, that's a silly number, especially when you combine it with Battleground's finding that only 19% of Americans are independents.

____________________

boomshak:

OBAMA CAUGHT IN BALD-FACED LIE DURING THE DEBATE!

John McCain: "Barack Obama voted for a tax icrease for those making as little as $42,000 a year..."

Barack Obama: "That's just not true..."

FactCheck.org: "McCain is right, Obama did vote for a tax increase on those making as little as $42,000 a year..."

Obama = Despicable Liar

This goes along with Obama's recent ads which have also been debunked by FactCheck.org as not just interpreting the facts in their favor as the McCain Ads did, but BALDFACED LIES.

____________________

boomshak:

@thirdparty:

"@vmval: it's 3% (or 2.97%, to be more accurate). Still, that's a silly number, especially when you combine it with Battleground's finding that only 19% of Americans are independents.

3% is only 2.5 points less than Rasmussen's 5.5% advantage. Gallup at 10% is 4.5 points higher. So Battleground's sample is more accurate than Gallup's.

BTW, where are you getting this 3% number? Can you link me?

____________________

boomshak:

My point is that Battleground's sampling is LESS OF AN OUTLIER than gallup's sampling.

____________________

thirdparty:

@boomshak:

Thanks for ignoring my post disproving your silly assertion that Gallup gave Obama +11 Saturday night. Classic boomshak tactic: backed into a corner, so he digs up some propaganda article to post. Don't let me post the link to my comment as many times as I did with your taxation lies.

What's the betting you'll still be proclaiming tomorrow that Gallup gave Obama +11 on Saturday?

____________________

riverrun:

Internals from R2000 tracker (3-day total has Obama +9%):

Sunday 1-day result: Obama +11%;
Obama net favorable: +29%;
McCain net favorable: back to zero.

Any remaining doubt who 'won' the debate?

____________________

boomshak:

@BOOMFAIL:
Research 2000 today has Obama up 9%!

26% Republicans in their sample. Downright silly.

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, now we have a confirmation that you are nothing but a rumor monger who goes about spreading lies about Obama.


REALITY: OBAMA DID NOT VOTE TO RAISE TAXES ON FAMILIES MAKING $42,000 A YEAR

Fact Check.org: Claim That Obama Would Have Raised Taxes On “Families” Making $42,000 Is “Simply False.” “A Spanish-language radio ad claims the measure Obama supported would have raised taxes on ‘families’ making $42,000, which is simply false. Even a single mother with one child would have been able to make $58,650 without being affected. A family of four with income up to $90,000 would not have been affected.” [FactCheck.org, 8/8/08]

Washington Post: McCain’s Attack On Obama For Voting To “Raise Taxes On People Making Just $42,000” Is “Unacceptably Misleading.” “Barack Obama and John McCain have important differences on tax policy. These are fair game for campaign ads, and no one expects 30-second spots to be suffused with nuance. But Mr. McCain’s latest attack on the Obama tax plan crosses the line from reasonable argument to unacceptably misleading. ‘Obama voted to raise taxes on people making just $42,000,’ the announcer warns. The basis for this statement is the senator’s vote for the fiscal 2009 budget resolution, a nonbinding blueprint that assumed that all the Bush tax cuts would expire as scheduled. However, Mr. Obama has repeatedly said he wants to extend the Bush tax cuts for families making less than $250,000 a year. If anything, he has lavished too much in tax breaks on the middle class, proposing an expensive $1,000-per-family additional tax credit and, last weekend, piling on top of that an immediate, presumably one-time, $1,000-per-family rebate for energy costs.” [Editorial, Washington Post, 8/10/08]

____________________

jamesia:

boomshak, you've now rejected every single poll except the only one that shows McCain in the lead.

____________________

boomshak:

For God's sake, Research 2000 claims THAT ONLY 26% OF VOTERS ARE REPUBLICANS!

Do you fool Obozo supporters actually BELIEVE that? You can't be serious.

____________________

boomshak:

@jamesia:
"boomshak, you've now rejected every single poll except the only one that shows McCain in the lead."

You are a damned fool. I have said over and over and over and over again that I agree with the Rasmussen poll here.

I know it's a lot of work for someone who can barely read, but TRY reading the posts before you spew your foolishness.

____________________

thirdparty:

@boomshak:

The difference between Rasmussen and Battleground is that Rasmussen is showing Obama +6. Battleground is showing McCain +2. Clearly one of them's got it wrong. Given how staunch an advocate you've been of Rasmussen - which has a sample size three times that of Battleground, and surveys five times as many voters in one day than Battleground - let's work out which one it is.

Secondly, there's a good reason why a poll which gives +9 advantage to the Dems is more reliable than one which gives a +2 advantage. +2 is a delusional result which could only occur if the GOTV operations of the Democrats suddenly failed dramatically on election day. +9 could well happen, because only a dunderhead would insist that the Republican GOTV operation is better than that of the Democrats.

____________________

sunnymi:


@boomshak, what you are forgetting there is R2K has only 35% Dems as well giving it a net +9 advantage to Dems which is a couple of points more than what others are giving.
The important thing is that all of the other polls are trending in the same direction over the last week or so.

____________________

boomshak:

@sunnymi:

McCain said "on taxpayers making $42,000 a year". The TRUTH (as if you would recognize it).

____________________

thirdparty:

@boomshak:

For God's sake, Research 2000 claims THAT ONLY 26% OF VOTERS ARE REPUBLICANS!

Do you fool Obozo supporters actually BELIEVE that? You can't be serious."

Let me respond to that:

For God's sake, Research 2000 claims THAT ONLY 35% of VOTERS ARE DEMOCRATS!

Do you fool McSame supporters actually BELIEVE that? You can't be serious."

R2K does not force "other/unsure" voters to commit to an affiliation.

____________________

sunnymi:

According to my calculations these must have been the daily poll numbers over the last week in Rasmussen and Gallup

Rasmussen:
----------
M O
22-Sep 47 48
23-Sep 50 48
24-Sep 44 51
25-Sep 44 48
26-Sep 47 51
27-Sep 41 51
28-Sep 44 48

Gallup:
-------
M O
22-Sep 44 49
23-Sep 43 47
24-Sep 45 45
25-Sep 50 46
26-Sep 40 53
27-Sep 42 48
28-Sep 44 49

____________________

boomshak:

WHICH Obama should we vote for, PRIMARY OBAMA or GENERAL OBAMA? The two are completely at odds with each other?

I would like to ask Obama, "Sir, which of your policy statements are we to take as your true position?". To which he would respond, "My latest one..."

____________________

boomshak:

@sunnymi:
According to my calculations these must have been the daily poll numbers over the last week in Rasmussen and Gallup

Rasmussen:
----------
M O
22-Sep 47 48
23-Sep 50 48
24-Sep 44 51
25-Sep 44 48
26-Sep 47 51
27-Sep 41 51
28-Sep 44 48

Gallup:
-------
M O
22-Sep 44 49
23-Sep 43 47
24-Sep 45 45
25-Sep 50 46
26-Sep 40 53
27-Sep 42 48
28-Sep 44 49

I concur. Both analyses on your part showing it just a 4-5 point race on Saturday.

____________________

sunnymi:


@boomshak, you said "McCain said "on taxpayers making $42,000 a year". The TRUTH (as if you would recognize it)."

Since you are quoting factcheck.org's debate update you must have seen the following as well -
"The resolution actually would not have altered taxes without additional legislation. It called generally for allowing most of the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts to expire. McCain is referring to the provision that would have allowed the 25 percent tax bracket to return to 28 percent. The tax plan Obama now proposes, however, would not raise the rate on that tax bracket."

____________________

thirdparty:

@sunnymi:

The problem with your estimates for Gallup is that it has McCain +4 on 25-Sep followed by a massive spike to Obama +13 on 26-Sep. There's no way of avoiding the fact that Obama had a big jump on either 25- or 26-Sep, but if you change the calculations slightly, you can get figures with less variation and which are thus more realistic.

Here were my estimates for Gallup for the last two weeks. I'll post them again: it won't do much harm, because boomshak didn't respond the first time anyway:

15 Sep: Obama +2
16 Sep: Obama +4
17 Sep: Obama +6
18 Sep: Obama +6
19 Sep: Obama +5
20 Sep: Obama +2
21 Sep: Obama +6
22 Sep: Tie
23 Sep: Obama +2
24 Sep: McCain +1
25 Sep: Obama +7
26 Sep: Obama +8
27 Sep: Obama +9

Either way, the bottom line is that Gallup didn't just go crazy on 27-Sep. It showed a consistent trend for Obama to be leading by a strong margin.

____________________

thirdparty:

@boomshak:

BACKFLIP! You've been claiming that Gallup had Obama +11 on Saturday. I suggested it was Obama +9 and that there was little shift over the last few days. sunnymi suggested that it was Obama +5.

AND YOU AGREE WITH SUNNYMI. So: you have now agreed that Gallup did NOT "lose their minds" on Saturday.

____________________

boomshak:

OMG, Wachovia closed Friday at $10. It is trading at 85 cents.

____________________

boomshak:

@thirdparty:

I agree that your guy is gonna lose Nov 4 as all the dead people ACORN registered fail to show up to vote.

____________________

boomshak:

@thirdparty:

Do you get some sort of purient thrill from being wrong?

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sunnymi:

@thirdparty, I do not think we have to make an effort to adjust the trend to account for the variation in daily polling numbers. There is always a possibility that a certain day, based on the news, could trigger a lop-sided response from the voters that night. I believe, the 3-day rolling average is used for this very purpose of smoothing the variations.

McCain threw up his stunt on Wednesday and it might triggered a positive response from the voters before reality sunk in and the following day they saw the reality and had a negative reaction to his actions leading me to explain the M(+4) followed by and M(-13) the very next day.

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thirdparty:

@boomshak:

I'm the one who has published my calculations on this comments page for everyone to see and critique.

I'm the one who has explained my reasoning every time.

I'm the one who actually bothers to look at the crosstabs of each poll instead of demanding that someone else give me the link.

You haven't responded to any of that. So, with that in mind: would you like to EXPLAIN why I'm wrong, instead of just making silly assertions?

____________________

thirdparty:

@sunnymi:

I did consider that possibility, but the problem is that the response to McCain's stunt was universally negative both among voters and among the media. A SurveyUSA poll taken immediately after the announcement - and thus before any partisan opinions could be injected into the reuslts - showed that only 10% thought the debate should be suspended. Even after the story had been covered on the evening news services, only 37% of Republican voters agreed with McCain that the debate should be suspended. Moreover, McCain's suspension of his campaign was universally questioned through the media and by commentators and strategists across the political spectrum.

So, I see the likelihood of a McCain +4 followed by Obama +13 the next day as being very low. But the bottom line is that either way, we've both disproven boomshak's claim that Gallup "lost their minds" on Saturday.

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boomshak:

AS SUSPECTED, RASMUSSEN SHOWS LEAD NARROWING (WHICH MEAN OBAMA ONLY POLLED +3 TO +4 SUNDAY)

Monday, September 29, 2008

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That’s the fourth straight day Obama has been at 50% and the fourth straight day McCain has been at either 44% or 45% (see trends). Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 55%."

This supports my theory that as the financial crisis eases, Obama surge will as well.

GO MCCAIN! OBAMA IS A LIAR!

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Rames1980:

Boomshak:

Obama's support was unchanged and McCain's changed by 1 point, which is within the margin of error. This magnitude of movement is noise, not Obama's lead narrowing. A similar example of noise is the DailyKos tracker which shows Obama's lead increasing from +7 to +9 from yesterday. In fact just looking at yesterday's data, DK has Obama at +11 with a MOE of 5 points.

Further calling Obama, instead of McCain, a liar is disingenious.

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boomshak:

Rasmussen Tells The Tale:

If you look at Rasmussen's internals, he has Obama leading amongst women by 15 and tied amongst white women. There's the difference in your poll right there.

When Mccain surged, he surged among women. If Palin does geat Thursday, look for McCain to surge among white women again.

This race is tied by Sunday.

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McCain lost. McCain wont come back past -3%. Republicans are crying crocodile tears about 700 billion dollars when in the past 8 years they have run up trillions in debt like a bunch of crackheads. The reason he wont come back? Americans are now seeing how the Republican have savaged this country. We were doing well 8 years ago. They have accomplished the unimaginable. Weakened America.

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