Pollster.com

Well, it looks like this race is heading back to where it was over the summer, which is statistically tied. I doubt we will see any major shift until the first debate.

Change from Yesterday:

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
McCain +1, Obama 0

Diageo / Hotline
McCain +1, Obama -1

Gallup
McCain -1, Obama 0

Rasmussen
McCain 0, Obama 0

Well, I'm assuming that Palin's weaker interview was included in these new numbers and her stronger one was not.

The good news is her early somewhat shaky performance didn't hurt and may have helped as she picked up 2 points on Hotline and a point on DailyKos(snicker). We'll see if her stronger appearance last night helped at all.

Right now, seems like McCain won the Convention Wars and came out ahead in a race that by every measure he should be losing by a mile. The slight daily movement up and down can pretty much be written off to statistical noice more than likely.

I mean, think about it, a crotchety old man who is a boring speaker and a soccer mom are beating THE ONE with the backing of the entire MSM! One paper it seems impossible!

We'll see what happens. 2 months is a long time in politics.

That Gallup poll is a bad sign for McCain. He usually polls better on weekends, and the fact he actually LOST a point might be a sign the beating he took in the press this week is finally taking hold.

Boomshak, I think analyzing separately the effects of Palin's interviews based on these polls is not sensible. Remember the margin of error people, it really exists and these polls seriously cannot depict 1% changes accurately. The trends matter, not individual numbers in rolling polling averages.

And speaking of the trend, it seems that McCain is currently in the lead about 1% or so. I estimate that at the start of next week it's either these numbers or basically +/- 0 situation (McCain has had a bit of a backlash from his campaign tactics).

So, before the conventions it was dead even and now after the bounces which are very real as you can see it's dead heat or a marginal advantage to McCain.

However, even if the race itself numberswise is pretty much the same the dynamics of the race have changed drastically. McCain has solified all the traditional red states (forget North Carolina for Obama people) and the narrative is completely different compared to pre-convention days.

blueboy,

Couple thoughts. McCain picked up a point on DK, 2 points on Hotline and lost a point on Gallup for a net gain of 1.

Also, wasn't most of this Gallup Poll taken on Friday? I thought Republicans typically did worse on weekends, not better.

Bottom line, advantage McCain with oversized party affiliation samples being given to Obama in every poll. Rasmussen has McCain ahead by 3 with a 7.6% sampling advantage given to Obama even though Rasmussen's own numbers say that should be closer to 3 or 4 points.

Anyway, close race, long way to go.

McCain is solidifying all red states while Obama's lead in blue states (even NJ and WA) are becoming razor thin.

That's the real news here.

@Boom

The View appearance with John McCain coming out of live comment/interview seclusion was the most significant event of the week.

I'll turn to Gibson/Palin later.

McCain got savaged, got called a liar and did not seem a man fit to be President and Cindy came across as an automatically entitled spoilt rich girl.

Expensive with the ladies at home.

I think someone should offer CBS for outtakes of Couric/McCain and ABC for Gibson/Palin,

The Obama Campaign should just splice and play. Don't need to make more adverts as McCain is mentally gone, Cindy's a little spoilt rich kid former junkie/thief and Palin is a ventriloquist's dummy.

I agree with you "blueboy2000", usually McCain polls better on weekends, his so-called lead is shrinking.I for one think that the first debate will start settling things, voters will have a breathtaking opportunity to listen to both of them talking about issues and not lipstick/Paris Hilton even though the McCain Campaign would rather discussing the latter. During the debates voters will definitely realize that all the ads about Obama is gonna raise taxes on the middle-class is flatly untrue and that might backfire cause voters had been fooled in the past by Bush/Carl Rove machine and I doubt they are seeking the same thing in their future president
May God bless America

thoughtful:

Well you are right, Obama definitely wrapped up the "pushy b*tch" vote with The View performance. Hysterical, biased and rude liberal women always has a great appeal to soccer moms in middle America.

Lol.

Keep it comin.

P.S., How exactly would Obama have fared under a similar assault?

You Obama guys are aware that overall, McCain GAINED a point if ayou add all these tracking polls together right?

You are talking like the race is getting closer when McCain has actually expanded his lead.

@BOOM

the difference is that McCain is either knowingly lying or being manipulating by all the Rove/Bush/Cheney people he is surrounded by.

Obama handled O'Reilly best shots and came out well on top.

@thoughtful
did you have voice99 write that one for you? i mean really, for a civilized blogger that is sounding either desperate or bloody wacko.

@boomshak

i agree. obviously. palin nailed it and as it will turn out, gibson as well. if you think obama when asked would have known what he phony baloney bush doctrine was, guess again.

even gibson didnt know. i dont even think bush knows, though probabaly karl rove does.

but palin DOES make a mistake by keep looping that bridge to nowhere riff when it is not that clear cut.

although it is as clear cut and legit as anything obama ever switched back and forth on. the difference is that obama switches back and forth while on the presidential campaign trail and palin was just some low life chick in aprons and up to the elbows in dirty diapers while gov.

i mean really, high profile like obama?

but back to the polls:
i agree the second part played great and should reflect by monday. though i wonder how many watched it. gibson is repugnant. his
glasses tipped on the end of his nose, his inflated chest, his smug grin (you should zoom in on it while he asks hr about hillary)

not a real woman out there nor decent man who is not frightened of equality and/or women would give gibson anything more than a low mark for his nathaniel hawhorne kind of type casting the woman as the deceitful one.

if nathanial hawthorne branded his heroine with the letter 'A' for adulterer it was pretty lear gibson wa gunning fo the sticking the letter "B" on her chest.

B for bozo.

I don't know why the main stream media doesn't analyze Obama's promises the way they do everyone else? Its absurd that they are acting this way. At the forum, he said that he would give every college student 4K a year ever year during their college life in return for some future undetermined public service. There are appx. 18 million college students in the U.S. That number increases every year. That comes to 72 billion dollars a year. This is all just wishful thinking. Its pure BS and the press knows it,yet they allow him these fantasies without questioning how he could do it. Oh and by the way, he is going to give the military members a huge pay raise. Its gotten to the point where it is almost laughable.

@BOOM

These trackers are rough snap shots of national voter intention. The trend line is back to a statistical tie.

The polls that really matter are the 20 States that could change hands.

New Registrations this year have thrown a fantastic challenge to pollsters.

The 18-29 demo turnout?

The AA registration and turn out in Florida?

The 2nd generation Cuban American party affiliation in Florida?

The elction will be won by the party with the best organization on the ground understanding the micros and GOTV.

polls:
exactly what state now can obama count on other than illinois and iowa and new york?

light blue must be obama's nightmare.
michelle can dance all she wants but it aint chasing away the true colors of this race:

that more and more of us are unaffiliated and vote the person not the party.

that the two party system is breathing its last, thank god.

if this is true as i believe it is,then can we revert back to the original electing process from the constitution or do we need to redraft.

hey, it's time to clean out this drafty old doc.

Ok everyone here it is, get ready for the October suprise. obamacrimes.com

@thoughtful

this comment of yours might just be true.

@greg

what r u talking about?

balack obama is not an american citien

I was looking at the map. Right now it seems as if Obama is in the drivers seat unless Colorado starts moving towards McCain. These debates are really beginning to look like they could be important. I would like to see some Business professors and Political Science professors host these debates instead of the usual feel good journalists that are going to be biased one way or another. You aren't going to BS the professors and get away with it.

citzen..sorry

citizen..sorry

citizen..sorry

@greg in charlotte:
I know what you are referring to. If Barack Obama isn't a citizen then my children aren't citizens. BO is a citizen and so are my children.

go to obamacrimes.com and decide for yourself......this is getting alot of air time.

"boomshak:
Rasmussen was just on FoxNews and said that McCain had a VERY good night last night. I am guessing McCain +6 to go from 0 to +3 in one day on a 3 day moving average. This means we may see a surge in Gallup today."

So what happened? Did Rasmussen lie to FOX news!!! Does Gallup poll different people???

professors are the wrong kind of people.

regular people drawn by lots should do it.

but your take on colorado cracks me up.
obama is not is any driver's seat known on the face of the planet.

you know how in cartoon animation where lets say
road runer smashes into a wall or something hits him?

they emphasize the satsis: ie we know there will be a huge effect but first everything is frozen: THEN IT CRASHES!!

this is what seems to be happening;the freeze frame before the violent shifting of the entire map.

colorado my ass! \\

that's the least of his worries.

I find it interesting that McCain people are claiming that Obama is not a natural born citizen. McCain is actually the candidate who was born off of American soil (the Panama Canal Zone) and some serious legal scholars have argued that McCain is not eligible to be President. My idea is to put aside the personal stuff and just talk about the issues. If you think that your side is right, why not defend your candidate on the merit of his positions?

@Boskop:
Look at the map friend. Do the math.I wondered why David Brooks said last night that obama still had the edge.

The McCain bounce is all but over.

The MSM is starting to report on the lies and smears, which is having a backlash against McCain. At least McCain climbed above 45% and moved to 47%.

Palinmania has peaked and people are starting to be frightened by her positions. McCain has only one way to go: down.

Obama just need to stay on message, watch the hot mics and hammer McCain on the issues.

The first debate is going to be huge. Both candidates have a chance to put the other away.

oh pu--lease greg in charlotte..

dont mess around in the dung heap with crap like that, okay?

this is not a yellow rag of a website.
you wanna talk dumb stuff like the huffpost then
dont come dabbling over here.
deal?

but we look forward to anything legit to discuss.

@ Jacob I just gave you the big October surprise.....it has now been file in court.....go look at the new docs filed at obamacrimes.com

@Jacob S:
Its because of the way they interpret a Hawaiian law about being a legal citizen. I think that they interpret it that both parents have to be citizens of the US at the time of the birth of the child in order for the child to be a US citizen. BO father wasn't a US citizen when Barack was born. Only his mother was.

obamacrimes.com has already got nearly 6 million hits in just about 3 weeks. It just got hit over 200 more times in the last 10 minutes.

@player

some of live in the moment.
and some of us see the moments aggregate as the future.

now is less than before for obama, much less.

trends are in place and the narrative is the driver.

the map changed drastically this past week. i dare you to deny this in front of all these readers.

go on, deny it!

so this is quite the fungible score card. let's revisit shall we same time next week. i dare say, it wont look the same.

Like I said, this is the slimy-est campaign I have ever seen.

It looks like the candidates are tied, and Obama will not speak today because of the natural disaster.

Many people lost their lives overnight (probably), certainly many lost homes. It is time to take stock of what Gore got the Nobel Prize for:

Global warming is real, or not; Hurricanes will get more severe, or not; the North Pole will melt away, or not. No voting or polls necessary.

Here is something that I agree with Obama Supporters on.

McCain's entire ad team should be fired immediately for malpractice. I mean the McCain ads are just plain awful and I like McCain. They are cringeworthy.

I mean, who the hecks idea was it to make a big deal about the "lipstick on a pig" thing and run an ad about it? Do they have a basic rule, "if anything makes Palin look like a victim, run with it no matter how much of a stretch it is?"

The worst part about McCain's advertising is that THERE IS SO MUCH GREAT STUFF THEY COULD BE RUNNING ADS ON but are instead wasting their time and money on these playground antics.

And Obama is no better. His 1982 was incredibly stupid besides being untrue. The ad preached to the choir and alienated seniors, the most consistent voting block in America. No wonder he pulled it after one day.

Anyway, here's to hoping McCain's team fugures out how to create a worthy ad. i am sick of the sludge coming out of both sides.

@slinky

ya got me on that one.
please 'splain!

I think boskop just out played the player

@greg in charlotte:
The problem is that citizenship is a federal matter. Federal laws overrides state laws in this situation. This is perhaps one of the laws on the books that needs to be given a legal definition by the Supreme Court. Someone needs to bring it up.

The thing that should worry Obama more than anything in these polls is how quickly and easily his support evaporated from beneath him.

This tells me that people were only voting for him because they didn't have a viable alternative. It's the "I don't like what I've got so I may as well try something new" syndrome".

But Sarah Palin IS what they wanted and the jumped off the Obama boat like it was on fire.

its not dung and it does matter

@Boskop:
As you should know, I am a McCain supporter. Lets not get too confident. You can't do that with someone who can walk on water and make the world's oil prices go up and down on a whim.

heres your next big surprise .......Palin 2012

greg in charlotte - Nothing on that website gives any reason why I would disbelieve the birth certificate presented by Obama.

The "adopted by Lolo Soetoro" argument is similarly silly. I quote the US State Department: "The Department has a uniform administrative standard of evidence based on the premise that U.S. citizens intend to retain United States citizenship when they obtain naturalization in a foreign state." So even if Obama had gained Indonesian citizenship, unless evidence can be presented that Obama, at age six, intended to relinquish his citizenship (and even understood what that would mean) there is no basis whatsoever in US law for the position that his time in Indonesia would amount to a loss of citizenship.

In short, this is a vicious smear unfounded in anything resembling reality, and unless you can present a shred of evidence, you should be ashamed to be spreading this crap.

Slime and racism, for pubs who didn't know:

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/washington/AP-Obama-Waffles.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/13/us/politics/13mccain.html?scp=4&sq=mccain%20campaign&st=cse

Just wait....Oct surprise

Obama is seen outside the US as American as Tiger Woods or Brian Phelps.

@Player - that is exactly as I have it Obama has a slight edge on the map. A bigger edge on the registrations.

An edge now with the Governors.

The Campaign has to get the vote out.

snowsppiner
you can see it all at obamacrimes.com. What more do you want?

YOU GUYS WANT A BIG LAUGH?

The DailyKos Poll, even though it shows the race tied, polled only 26% Republicans! That's right, 26%!!!!

They gave a 9 point sampling edge to Democrats (why am I not shocked?) even though both Rasmussen and Gallup say that is now closer to 4 or 5 points.

Still, despite playing games with the sample and hoping we wouldn't notice, the worst they could manage was a tie.

Lol, well done.

P.S., Just for a frame of reference, here are the party affiliation numbers from Rasmussen (before the Palin pick - they are even closer now):

Republicans 33.2%
Democrats 38.9%
Independents 28.0%

and here are the numbers DailyKos is using:

Republicans 26%
Democrats 35%
Independents 30%

lol, talk about cookin the numbers!

greg in Charlotte

You are a disgrace to our country for proffering this garbage.

Thoughtful must be an obama supporter.....it's ok to lose sometimes thoughtful

boomshak - I'm really unconvinced by your narrative here. McCain's bounce has largely evaporated, and we seem to have settled on a race that is either a dead heat or a very slight McCain advantage. Convention bounces have lasted longer, and the lack of any real news over the week has probably helped slow its deflation.

Palin as a gamechanger is similarly refutable. The Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll today showed her favorables as the lowest of the four people on the ticket, and her unfavorables are almost as high as McCain and Obama - in other words, she's just as polarizing as everybody else in the race. Except, with 11% still having no opinion, she's probably more polarizing among people familiar with her. (Biden, notably, has higher favorables and lower unfavorables than her while also having more no opinions).

She did not change the race in a fundamental sense, and she is not teflon - she's a pretty vulnerable politician, and there's a fair chance that McCain's attitude of treating her like she's off limits is going to stop holding water soon.

I do not see anything in the polls today that makes McCain's long-term prospects look solid. Obama's look similar - but the fact of the matter is, the race is a tie, with no real clear reason to favor McCain over Obama.

before any of you call me child like names just to check out obamacrimes.com. Then tell me where im wrong. Otherwise shut up.

greg in charlotte - Well, for one thing, I want the evidence at obamacrimes to be even remotely persuasive.

@greg I am a patriotic American

@Boom

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS

DEMOGRAPHICS:

Men 514 (47%)
Women 586 (53%)

Democrats 386 (35%)
Republicans 285 (26%)
Independents 329 (30%)
Other/Refused 100 (9%)

White 803 (73%)
Black 145 (13%)
Latino 140 (13%)
Other/Ref 12 (1%)

18-29 198 (18%)
30-44 360 (33%)
45-59 298 (27%)
60+ 244 (22%)

Northeast 243 (22%)
South 315 (29%)
Midwest 307 (28%)
West 235

We know that the DailyKos is a tabloid sex-uped ran type of outfit. However, I don't know why Research 2000 uses those party weights. I think the national average is about 28% rep. This percentage should have increased because of Sarah Palin. What it now become known at the shy Tory effect. I don't know if my ancestors were Tories or not.

Isn't there a 3.5% error margin?

Should a single percent even count?

The race is a dead heat.

To proclaim either candidate a clear winner is stupid.

Both libs and cons think they have control over the hearts and minds of America.

The truth is that America is very centrist, and sometimes leans left or right by a VERY small margin.

There is really no way to predict who will win.

For all the faith put into polls, you're just as well predicting who will through a coin toss.

Snowspinner just look

boomshak - notably, there's 9% unaccounted for in the Daily Kos poll, and without the phrasing of the questions, there's a lot of room for error - if one is asking registration and the other is asking identification or lean, that would already produce the sort of results you're seeing.

But given that there's only 91% accounted for in the Daily Kos numbers, to better compare the two you should think of the DK numbers as these:

GOP: 29
DEM: 38
IND: 33

So there's a shift from GOP to Independent in the Daily Kos numbers, but it's not that dramatic a shift, and is easily accounted for by question phrasing. I also can't tell from DK's numbers whether that poll norms for party affiliation or not - if it doesn't, that kind of 5% swing is within the daily margin of error.

Nothing outrageous there, honestly.

thoughtful,

You said "McCain's bounce has largely evaporated..."

How so?

He has lost 2 points on Gallup and gained 3 on Rasmussen. That's a new gain of 1, not a loss. How do you figure his bounce is gone when it has increased? Also, his advatnage on DailyKos and Hotline has increased since yesterday.

Thats true assuming the election is fair.

obamacrimes.com has now been hit over 500 times just since we started this conversation, people are interested

boomshak,

McCain is not gaining strength in any poll any longer.

Ergo, end of bounce.

@Greg

Please go back to the sewer from which you came. We would all be obliged. thank you

greg in charlotte - I have looked. I see ludicrous accusations. I see a claim that unnamed forensic experts have determined that the birth certificate on Obama's website is a forgery that is unsupported by any detailed report by said experts. I see an easily refuted claim about the possibility of Obama's adoption by Lolo Soetoro that is immaterial, given that it is clear under US law that any such adoption would not constitute a loss of citizenship. I see no evidence whatsoever that Obama was born in Kenya - just a blank accusation.

There is nothing remotely persuasive on that website, and I would like the half hour of my life I spent reading it back.

thoughtful that was almost funny. I must have really struk a nerve with you

What I like about the Research 2000/Kos poll is that they publish every thing, it would appear.

I haven't see as much transparent internal on Rasmussen or Gallup.

I hate the Daily Kos though as it's like Redneck in reverse!

boomshak - Actually, I said his bounce had largely evaporated, and I stand by it - the most pronounced bounce came in the Gallup poll, and the majority of that bounce is gone now. Rasmussen had a bounce yesterday, but has already ticked a point of it away. Diageo has swung around dead heat since it came out, DailyKos has shown a slight trend towards McCain in the past three days.

The overall result of the polls right now is inconclusive. Earlier this week, the bounce was conclusive. Moving from conclusive to a muddled tie is an evaporated bounce.

raw data files in Research2000/Kos?

Where?

SPSS, SAS?, STATA?, Excel Spreadsheets? Something susceptible to Stat Transfer? Where?

slinky - While those are not visible, the visible daily internals are, and that's a rather nice perk over Gallup and Rasmussen. I've been very pleased with the Kos poll thus far.

I love the American notion of transparency.

You think you can recreate someone else's conclusions, but you can't possibly, because all the important facts are proprietary.

The press is allowed to go where no citizen can venture, and,

then influence opinion in ways that defy gravity.

America: Land of the free: Home of the almighty dollar.

McCain's numbers are holding rock steady; that's good for McCain, not Obama. If this continues over the weekend I'd have to conclude that his convention bounce was a true shift rather than a temporary improvement.

I think any further erosion of the bounce will be fully reflected by Monday.If McCain is still leading by about 2 by then he's in good shape going into the debates.....but, read below....

The fact that even more conservative elements of the MSM are starting to pick up the "liar" meme regarding the more obvious lies (e.g. Sara Palin didn't request earmarks as governor; Sara said "no thanks" to Fed "bridge to nowhere" money (she welcomed the big bucks and used them)the more it weakens the perception most Americans have of him as an honorable straight shooter maverick with great judgment and leadership skills.

For example there's this fron CNN:

"But when Palin served as mayor of her hometown of Wasilla, outside Anchorage, she obtained about $27 million in federal “earmarks” during her last four years in office, according to the watchdog group Taxpayers for Common Sense.

And McCain, who has made pork-busting a centerpiece of his maverick pitch for years, singled out for criticism about $3 million worth of those projects in a 2001 statement opposing a transportation spending bill. McCain’s list of “objectionable” spending included a $2.5 million road project for the town that then had a population of 5,500, as well as a $450,000 appropriation for an agricultural processing plant there.

I still have to wonder why he picked her when he had previously attacked her own actions as Mayor, and when her "queen of pork" style of doing business (e.g. hiring a Ted Stevens related lobbyist to bring home the bacon for for Wassila, heading up a pro-Stevens 527 group, and requesting 100s of millions for Alaska)is diametrically opposed to his own view (which, to his credit, has been a consistent one).

Poor vetting and the need for a game changer are two plausible answers. He got his game changer alright but I can't help but think that long term, this will be remembered as a desperate and boneheaded act. Right now it's working because it's firmed up the base and generated about 10 times the excitement to an otherwise listless McCain campaign; no wonder he plans to continue to campaign with her for now.If her favorables stay high I've no doubt he'll continue to do so, unorthodox as it is.

My feeling is that the perception that McCain stretches the truth and refuses to admit when he's wrong will grow slowly. Each story, individually, may be small potatoes, but they resonate with each other and may well begin to create a liar meme within the minds of some key voting blocks. It may all pass in a few news cycles but, I wouldn't count on it going away, and it may hurt McCain in battleground states in the end. He may very well win the popular vote and win by 50 in Alaska but still lose the EC.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/13/111655/245/657/597333

At least you can make a better informed judgement.

@Snowspinner,

Not enough info. over there for me to get a handle on what's going on at the level of the war rooms.

Ergo, not enough info.

Hey guys, can we all agree that this Nationwide Pissing Match between these two campaigns needs to end and we need to get down to the issues?

I mean the McCain Camp comes out and says that "because Obama made negative attacks during the hurricane, he has no honor". Then the Obama Campaign shot back that "McCain is running the most dishonorable campaign ever".

Ugh, for chrissakes!

Ok, McCain is an honorable guy and Obama is an honorable guy. Both are Americans and both sincerely want what they believe is best for America. They just disagree on how to do it.

All of this, "you're evil, no you're evil" is childish and embarassing.

A few days ago Boomshak was denouncing Rasmussen methodology and praising Gallup. Now she uses the Ras poll to bolster McCain's numbers. If Gallup's McCain numbers continue to fall she will start denouncing Gallup.

At least Kiptin is clever about spinning. Boomshak is merely hysterical.

@boomshak

Actually, no.

Here is why:

McCain is lying. Like not telling the truth. period.

A great many of McCain's supporters are voting for him and Palin for racist reasons.

And, McCain has not come out and said "DO NOT VOTE FOR ME BECAUSE I AM WHITE!"

Until McCain acts like a Mensch, we will not believe he is a mensch.

OK?

Got It?

Still confused?

slinky,

wow, just wow. no actually I am not voting for obama because he has been a socialist all his political life and is now running as a moderate republican to get elected.

once in power with a dem congress and judiciary, he will govern as what he is, a socialist.

he could be blue or green, wouldn't matter to me. only democrats care about race, republicans don't.

@greg in Charlotte:
You are doing exactly what Obama wants you to do. You are creating a diversion from the facts. He will beat you this way. All you have to do is focus on the issues and watch him the next time he is in a debate or forum. You will see that he has nothing to offer. He says nothing on his stump speeches unless its demeaning remarks about Bush or McCain. He is empty. Quit creating doubt and suspicion and go with the facts.

I really enjoy Pollster for providing insight into how polling is done and how to weigh various pollsters by house effects. All this chatter about my candidate is better than yours really deminishes what I believe is the purpose of this site. So with that in mind, I will provide my observations with respect to daily tracking and trends, Gallup on Sept 10th had McCain by 5 and today by 2. Rasmussen has remained fairly flat particularly when the house effect is taken into consideration. The other two are relative new comers to this race and at least from my perspective will require more time and observation to see if they prove to be reliable. In the end daily tracking only demonstrates overall conditions. There are over 50 days until we vote and the debates are going to have just as big an impact if not more than the conventions.

zotz,

lol, nice try. I denounced that Rasmussen is using outdated party affiliation numbers, and he still is. with accurate numbers, Rasmussen would have McCain up by 5 at least right here.

@Boom

Unfortunately for McCain, its too late.

All the lies and misleading, disengenuos statements are just about to come back to him like a series of boomerangs, that may well knock the 72 year old nominee out of any chance of being elected President.

Not that McCain would be a decent President from the way he ran his campaign and then allowed the extreme right wing to hijack it, assuming that he didn't sell his soul to the devil.

When a Republican sends a "lets be civilized" there has to be a no good motive behind it.

Lou,

Rasmussen has remained flat? Huh? Rasmussen has gone from Obaam +1 to tied to McCain up 3 two days in a row now. How do you see that as "flat"?

I thought that Rasmussen said that he had never seen such a one day spike as he did with McCain two days ago.

Repubs have an OBLIGATION to fight racism in their party and unite the nation in a fight against racism.

And McCain ain't no fighter against racism; nor is he a uniter.

When Bush tortured prisoners, and McCain saw the problems inherent, McCain failed to mobilize Repubs. and Democrats against Bush.

Let me know when you find a moral strength in McCain.

I ain't seen it yet.

thoughtful and boom,

McCain's straight-talk image has undoubtedly taken a hit in the last two weeks. The media have called him an out-and-out liar, and most Republicans would concede in private that Sarah Palin is a political gimmick.

So why do they persist? They're not appealing to the intelligentsia and probably believe outrage among elites will help them. If they thought the backlash to their lies would outweigh the benefits telling them, they'd be telling the truth. If they thought they could win on the issues, they'd talk about the issues.

John McCain has calculated (correctly, in my view) that his only chance is to bull**** his way to the White House. Although it will be tough to maintain the barrage of nonsense through the debates, it might work.

One certainty: come what may on November 4, John McCain will have disgraced himself.

Boomshak, because it is all within the margin of error. Seriously people, all you can say from this is that McCain seems to be holding a very slim lead.

boomshak,

I think I clearly identified my observation pertaining to Rasmussen as including the house effect which according to pollsters article of 8/24 is -2.8% for dems. If you want to analyze house effect for Gallop -1.8% dems, the race is a dead heat. I am not interested in partisan dribble. I am trying to use the data to get a feel for the trend of this election.

Well... thoughtful... I see you are full of spite today. Did you actually watch The View, or just the biased analysis. Because I did not observe what you described?

Obama is LOSING everytime he or his campaign goes after Palin. He is almost daily OFF MESSAGE. He needs to FOCUS, FOCUS, FOCUS on the ECONOMY. And he needs to create a succinct message on his solutions for the economy instead of offering a CHECKLIST.

McCain gained parity in the polls before the convention because he tied ENERGY to the ECONOMY and NATIONAL SECURITY. (Palin is already well versed on ENERGY and the ECONOMY and therefore is a valuable asset.) McCain's message is a simple message that resonates with the voters because they understand the concepts.

McCain's newest message is also simple: Against "one-party rule" in Washington D.C. Did not work with the GOP, and will not work with the Democrats. (Polls show that voters prefer the "splitting" of President and Congress between the two parties.)

KipTin/Undecided

I watched the view and was rivetted! It was a gas! Especially when Cindy McCain couldn't swallow it!
You know it was a crazy move to come out of seclusion for The View.

He got away from his handlers. I think maybe confine him and palin to Fox and other friendlies.

I think Obama will kill him in the debates literally as he can't play hard ball in the open. He only goes in for sneak attacks or hide behind women!

KipTin:

One party rule? I love that the Reps are only opposed to it when it's not them.

It didn't work for the GOP because their policies were horrible.

Time for a change.

attention Balack Obama supporters, GIVE IT UP. I have noticed alot thoughtful ideas on this post about polls and opinions but the you are all over looking the biggest deal breaker for Obama. He is a black man running in a white mans world.

yikes....well with the way China is going it will soon be a "yellow man's world" lol.

You missed the point that McCain/Palin is running against both their GOP party and Democrats because of the problems with one-party rule. A good example of two-party rule is the Clinton Presidency and the GOP Congress. They balance each other out-- and the voters prefer that arrangement.

Regarding "change"... one-party rule with Dems is NOT change as presented by McCain. It leads to self-interest abuse.

If there is one thing that Obama can't do, its debate. He was given a free pass in the democrat primaries because they all had the same answers. Now, he will have to explain his policies against opposing views. He won't have the time to get up and stammer around trying to look for words to explain polices where he himself doesn't have a clue how they work. McCain will be blunt and to the point just like he was in both forums.

yellow is not black

That's right people, don't vote for your favorite candidate, because it's over.

He is just way too black. What with his ho's and rap music and the MTV....

God, please be a troll.

We need to get something straight, reform is all well and good (and both parties are for transparency), but you are not going against your party when you nominate a VP that is the hardest right-winger I have ever heard of. "she went against her own party" only in supposed reform of pork projects, but she was for them also before they got bad press. She's hired her own lobbyists to get as many earmarks as she could get.

Reform or not, it is not change when she is the hardest right-winger out there who believes that the world is 6000 years old and that women shouldn't be able to have abortions even if they have been raped or the victim of incest. She is a base-pleaser and true change would have been nominating Joe Lieberman, but he didn't and this is a stunt.

They are not going against their party on ANY POLICY.

@drmummy I'm a 40's white guy that likes rap music, MTV and I really really like ho's. But thats so not the point.

@Player
Obama Vs O'reilly was that a debate with Bill dealing from the deck?

Player:

Did you even watch the debates? In the later ones between Hillary and Obama, it gets pretty brutal. I should know, I've seen them.

You can't say Obama can't debate cause that will look really bad when he starts bashing McCain's face in sept. 26 (no bias whatsoever lol).

But please, lower the bar for Obama. I won't stop you.

I think South Dakota should soon be solid red on the Pollster Map.

Rasmussen: McCain 54/Obama 37
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_dakota/election_2008_south_dakota_presidential_election2

McCain is now viewed favorably by 65% of South Dakota voters, up three points since July.

Obama earns positive reviews from 47%, down seven points since July.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 62% while 41% say the same about Barack Obama’s running mate, Delaware Senator Joe Biden.

@Robi:
We aren't electing a king or queen where the citizen has to take their points of view on personal matters. That only happens in Muslim countries. No one can force their views on anyone in this country. The Supreme Court is there for that reason. The presidency is just one branch of power that rules this country. The other two are both Houses and the Supreme Court. They are three have equal power. The executive branch (presidency)is in charge of defense and foreign policy. That's all there is to it. You are throwing a lot of personal baggage in to the equation that has no business being there.

Yes, the election is a dead heat and the electoral apparatus is a hopped up 18th century vehicle.

Consequently, it is reasonably likely that the person who wins the popular vote will not win the electoral vote.

Since we don't permit mismatched VP's and P's in this country, what we've got is a job too big for one person, with only one viable pair running.

McCain is a slimy liar, and Palin is a right-wing extremist. Even if Obama is a socialist (which he's not; cuz my socialist friends say he isn't left enough) and Biden is strapped to Jung's couch, the Repubs. are gonna divide the country, destroy the economy, get us into a few more wars, pack the Supreme court with dolts (like Thomas) or twisted minds (like Scalia).

Also, until you decry racism, you support it.

In that sense, McCain and Palin are racist.

Period.

@greg in charlotte sez:
attention Balack Obama supporters, GIVE IT UP. I have noticed alot thoughtful ideas on this post about polls and opinions but the you are all over looking the biggest deal breaker for Obama. He is a black man running in a white mans world.

Yeah, well, if that's how we want America run, that's the slime we'll get.

Don't expect everybody to sit still for it, though.

If you're interested in really watching the demise of America, vote for McCain cuz he's white.

Then, watch the streets burn.

You think this is gonna be hard for students and the poor to figure out?

Workers?

Think France '68.

Player:

First of all I'm well aware of the separation of powers of the judiciary, the legislative, and the executive. I wouldn't say they're all "equal" but that's semantics.

My arguments aren't personal matters (although the Reps sure like it to be). I'm saying Obama's policies (foreign policy especially) are sound and will easily be debated against McCain's who's is based on knee-jerk reactions and not a lot of thought.

The President has a lot of power over the judiciary when it comes to nominating a justice so that too is important. Since Obama teached constitutional law at Chicago University (which isn't anything to sneeze at), I am confident he would make good decisions whereas McCain's picks scare the hell out of me (especially since he picked Palin to be VP).

I don't think I ever argue "personal" matters about why Obama should be president and I would like you to let me know what is "personal" to you.

@greg
That's it. you're a troll plain and simple.

No one is that dumb. NO ONE.

"No one can force their views on anyone in this country"

Tell that to the religious-right...

@Robi:
Yes, and that was the reason that Hillary was asking Obama for more debates. She was killing him. He didn't want anymore. McCain has ask him to debate on the road in town hall settings. Obama won't do it. You are seeing Obama through the fog my friend. You will get a chance to see him without the fog in the first debate. Make sure you listen carefully to what he says. He made absolutely no sense in the forum Thursday night. Not only that but he was constantly taking pot shots at Bush during that time.

@Robi:
What views are being forced on you? Over 70% of the people in this country claim to be religious. Its all BS put in your head by political nonsense coming from left.

@slinky

Obama is certainly no socialist, indeed compared to McCain and Palin's extremism he has moved to be a centrist.Although it is noticeable that the handlers are coaching Palin into "perhaps" or "can" concessions to tone down her extreme views.

McCain doesn't know what he believes in any more other than wanting to be President at any cost, its amazing out he projected that actualite' onto Obama.

@Player
Obama will probably call McCain out on the lies in the debate and directly dispose of him.

"He made absolutely no sense in the forum Thursday nigh"

So I guess McCain wasn't because they said basically the same thing...

Also, the McCain town-hall challenges is a stunt because the Obama campaign asked for less (so they could campaign in the states they need to) and the McCain campaign said no. So of course it was a stunt.

More to the point about how it's a stunt, you have to think about the fact that the Dems and the Reps have different areas that they need to go to in order to run what they think is an effective campaign. This is why I hate the McCain campaign, they say stuff that sounds horrible at the beginning, but when you actually think about it, you're like "duh of course they can't do all these things together." The scheduling complexities of both campaign could not possibly have it work out without one campaign's plan being hindered.

For example:

If McCain wants to give town hall meetings in all red states and Obama is going to be in swing states at that time, of course obama wouldn't go to a town hall meeting with McCain in a state that would never go for him. Obama even said he would go for 5-6 or some lower number but the McCain campaign said NO.

SO GET OFF IT. IT'S A STUNT!

Also, if Obama's foreign policy was so poor, why are many foreign policy scholars supporting Obama instead of McCain?

Lol, team Obama has no shame.

Sarah Palin visited troops on the border between Kuwait and Iraq. Apparently, she was within feet of actually standing in Iraq, but technically was in Kuwait.

So Team Obama is screaming from the rooftops that Palin LIED when she said she visited Iraqi Troops.

Lol, I just have to laugh.

Desperation.

"What views are being forced on you? Over 70% of the people in this country claim to be religious. Its all BS put in your head by political nonsense coming from left."

....really?......I mean, really? I'm religious too, but I'm not evangelical and my faith believes that abortions to a certain point is ok. The religious-right is not my faith.

There is also separation of church and state so the religious-right (like Palin) who impose their religious values on all goes against the constitution.

boomshak:

Two can and have played at that game. So stop it.

Also, did the official Obama campaign say that or Obama supporters who say stuff?

There is a difference.

@Robi:
All three branches have equal power. Thats in the Constitution. As far as the Judiciary is concerned, the president nominates judges and the Senate confirms them. Right now the Senate is controlled by the democrats. There is no way that a hard line judge could be put in the Supreme Court. As far as foreign policy is concerned, we have to think about our own interest. Its pure BS to worry about what the rest of the world wants or thinks. Its us first and foremost. This is where Obama loses. He is very immature and naive about the world. He has the right job now. That is in the senate where they have to think in hypothetical ways to make laws. He isn't the type we need for president. He can best work in that environment.

@boomshak:

Visiting a country is about visiting a country.

Some of us have a knowledge of the French energy industry because we have visited their nuclear power stations. Travelled on their high speed trains.

Some of us have an insight into China because we have shopped in Chinese supermarket, supped with Chinese people as well as Chinese leaders.

Some of us have an insight into Russia because we have visited there unrestricted, as you can do these days, met with their industry leaders and the technocrats running the country.

Now getting on a plane for 14 hours travelling to Kuwait to visit the troops with an hour stop off in Ireland really doesn't qualify you for much other than jet lag.

I know how the separation of powers works so I don't know if you're trying to tout something you just learned today, then stop it.

Second of all your ignorance of Obama's policies can't be debated against if you don't know what they truly are. Try to do some non-partisan research and find out why international security experts support Obama.

@Robi:
Did you listen to Charley Gibsons' interview with Sarah Palin? She isn't a hardliner. She told about her religious views and her views concerning homosexuality and other things. That hard line religious stuff has been gone for years now. It is no longer a major factor in the U.S. Religious leaders want two things. They don't want abortions and they don't want same sex marriage. These things go against their religious beliefs. And let me tell you from experience as a guy that had to actually fight in a war. You want these religious people behind you when you go fight because you face certain death evey time you go on a mission.

player:

What is the best way to describe the international system?:

Realist
neo-realist
liberal
neo-liberal
marxist
neo-marxist
constructivist
functionalist
neo-functionalist
Other

Which one do you believe most applies to the world today?

@Robi:
I have looked and listened to Obama's views of the world and the military. He has no clue. He gets up and gives talking points that he has been given by one of his 300 foreign policy advisers. They want a job is all they want. You need to look at the constitution again. All three branches share power. The founders constructed it that way on purpose because they didn't want one branch to grasp absolute power. Take a basic political science course.

SHE IS A HARD LINER!

An interview is different from her policies!

If she was anti-abortion only for herself and thought people could do whatever they want with their bodies (which many protestants and catholics subscribe to) than she wouldn't be. But she wants to impose her religious beliefs on EVERYONE.

When McCain has to kiss Hagee's ass in public, then that shows that the religious-right still has a lot of power. Let me put it this way:

An atheist will never be allowed to be president in this country no matter what his policies are. That shows you how much influence there is.

Imposing your beliefs on other people about first trimester and the beginning of second trimester abortion is against the constitution when all modern medicine still says that the baby is not alive.

Creationism is the result of extreme evangelical views and imposes itself in PUBLIC SCHOOLS. The religious right has a lot of influence still.

I don't want a woman that doesn't believe in science being in the oval office god forbid McCain can't.

@Robi:
International system of what? The only international system that exists in the world today is the United Nations and or the World Trade Organization which has a lot of power.

Player:

I'm a senior poli sci major lol.

I KNOW HOW IT WORKS AND I'M NOT SAYING YOUR WRONG SO SHUT THE **** UP. I said they're not entirely equal because the house and senate create laws, the executive enforces the laws and the judiciary checks if the laws are constitutional.

You've heard Obama's speeches but not a thorough explanation of his policies and you should go to website if you want a succinct explanation of his policies (I did it for both campaigns).

Getting both side's policy papers are the only way to judge this thing. Not yours or anyone else's talking points from FOX or msnbc

@Robi:
You know something? You have never taken the time to even learn about who she is or what she thinks. You are just an extension of the leftist liberal attack machine that has been given talking points. Besides that, she is running for VP. I got to run. Its been fun.

Player:

The international system aka THE STATE OF THE WORLD.

leftist machine?

Yeah ok...except I have always called out people on this site who say crazy leftist things. Just because I'm disagreeing with you right-wing BS doesn't make it leftist. It's rational.

I used to be a republican until 2004 I guess. So I know both sides very well and I make it my job to know both comprehensive sides.

Stupid people piss me off...

Player is a dope. I am 54 years old, have many degrees, and could easily be one of your professors. Her allegations about Obama's inexperience are nonsense as are her assertions about McCain.

McCain was just lambasted, 5 mins. ago, by Greenspan, because his tax cuts can't be done in an economic fashion.

McCain is not fit to lead. Believe me. He will dig the country into a racially polarized hole from which it cannot dig itself out.

Would a leftist propaganda machine spew out international theory??

Really? I'm saying what scares me about the republican ticket. I know what the woman stands for and the fact that she isn't willing to say it on national TV is politics.

I am an American citizen very scared and concerned about the Republican ticket.

I don't think Player has any idea what is going on in the world.

Can we please paint South Dakota deep red? Rasmussen has McCain up by 17 today.

What is the best way to describe the international system?:

Realist
neo-realist
liberal
neo-liberal
marxist
neo-marxist
constructivist
functionalist
neo-functionalist
Other

Which one do you believe most applies to the world today?

Does anyone else want to try to answer?

Player's answer was similar to Palin's answer about the Bush doctrine. *GASP* maybe they're the same person lol.

@Robi

Most Americans don't know and seemingly don't care which is why 9/11 was allowed to happen by the negigence of the Bush Administration.

**sigh** I know.

Except the 9/11 thing....I don't know if it's mostly Bush's fault. I know he had many reports given to him the months before, but Clinton has some of the blame as well (although he's 100000000000 times better than Bush).

@Robi

There was credible and specific intelligence on 9/11. There was no credible and specific on WMD in Iraq and Sadaam Hussein's nucleur weapon development. Quite the reverse as Hans Blix in his report to the UN clearly stated.

Headlines this weekend (so far):

Greenspan: America Can't Afford McCain's Tax Plan

More Lies: Palin Never Went To Iraq

More Lies: 'McCain-Palin Crowd-Size Estimates Not Backed by Officials'

All the down-side risk in in McCain's camp - mostly because of Palin, though the old man has been making a LOT of mistakes recently (Palin didn't support earmarks as Gov!?! (on View) though she did support > 200 mill last year

I agree, but Clinton could have done a little better too.

The issue of lying by the McCain campaign is picking up momentum. Several Reps on this site have boasted of McCain/Palin crowd sizes.
The crowd size estimates came from the McCain campaign. Now, it appears the McCain campaign was lying about it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=a1J0tfV3XJYs&refer=politics

For those of you that actually read, the NYTimes did an extensive investigative piece on how Palin operated as Mayor and Governor.

I must say, I'm actually surprised.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/us/politics/14palin.html?hp

@Robi

Clinton bombed Sudan, they came very close to taking OBL out!

@Stuart

I've been telling all my republican buddies that this thing was going to come round and bite. Palin breaks the "do no harm" principle.

McCain would rather win an election than keep his integrity. He is going to lose both!

"I KNOW HOW IT WORKS AND I'M NOT SAYING YOUR WRONG SO SHUT THE **** UP"

You tell 'em Robi!

RUN AWAY IT'S THE LEFTIST MEDIA MACHINE!!!!

FOX NEWS SAVE US!!!!! BILL!!! HANNITY!!!! SAVE US WITH YOUR FAIR AND BALANCED REPORTING!!!!!!!!

lol jk. What a joke.

I just found out the Joe Biden is coming to my college on wednesday.

I'm pumped and if I can ask him a question, I'll ask him when he can grow some balls and go after Palin and McCain with some TEETH.

This race is tied.
I believe in Gallup; he had McCain up by five at the end of last week (49-44); he now says McCain is only up by two (47-45); which is within the statistical margin of error. His numbers are more reliable, 2700 Registered Voters contacted by phone. O's support has gone up, Mcc's support has gone down. This will be reflected in the state polls next week, as they typically register change after the national polls. Mcc is now taking a hit in the MSM for his false and misleading campaign tactics, read AOL home page, just posted. Obama needs to stick to the issues, because Mcc doesnt want to.

favrejet2008

I agree and simply repeat that McCain is a liar and move on to policy.

Obama just has to say "my oppoenent John McCain will tell you lies as he doesn't want to talk about the enormous issues facing our great country" Then talk issues and policy!

I asked:

"What is the best way to describe the international system?:

Realist
neo-realist
liberal
neo-liberal
marxist
neo-marxist
constructivist
functionalist
neo-functionalist
Other

Which one do you believe most applies to the world today?"

Player said:
"International system of what? The only international system that exists in the world today is the United Nations and or the World Trade Organization which has a lot of power."

The connection to that answer and Palin saying "In what way" and "you mean his world view?" to Gibson asking about the Bush doctrine is stunningly similar lol.

By the way, there are WAY MORE than two IGOs lol

Attention Player-
You know of two international organizations.
I suppose you never heard of NATO, ANZUS, OAS, IOC, European Union, Interpol, ASEAN, OPEC, and the RED CROSS!

There are about a hundred more. The point is player is a DONKEY! Hee-Hah!!!

@favrejet2008

Keep in mind that Gallup has a weekly cycle that shows less support for Obama from Friday through Monday, and more on Tuesday through Thursday. It surely has to do with who answers their phone and if there are call backs.

So bearing this in mind (which can be influenced by other factors), Gallup should trend even stronger for Obama by mid-week.

I do believe that overall, this is a dead-heat in the polls, with that meaning an actual tie and not this nonsense about being within a margin of error.

I am however not confident that the polls will reflect the reality on election day. Obama has a much better ground game than any recent Democrat, and there is certainly a lot of enthusiasm among AA's and young voters that will likely turn out in record numbers. Other shifts such as Hispanic support could end up being pivotal in states like NV, NM and CO, and who knows, even FL maybe (but that's a long-shot right now).

Of course the election isn't today, and many things will happen between now and November 4th. My expectation is that Palin will lose her newness and celebrity status and the press is going to start treating her like the politician she is, and she is not the person they claim she is, and she is a neophyte on many issues of national interest. I also can see that the McCain campaign has now gotten themselves a reputation for lying very publicly and refusing to correct the record. So if they try to keep pushing this for the next month and a half, it will hurt them, and it hurts their prospects of being negative late in the campaign. They can't last 50 more days on the same hypocrisy.

Ultimately it is the debates that will likely define how this country votes IMO.

I just joined a facebook group called "I have more foreign policy experience than Sarah Palin" and it's getting to 9K members. I love it.

Finally, some backbone!

“We will take no lectures from John McCain who is cynically running the sleaziest and least honorable campaign in modern presidential campaign history. His discredited ads with disgusting lies are running all over the country today. He runs a campaign not worthy of the office he is seeking."
Obama spokesman Bill Burton

GAME ON

Something interesting that I just noticed (maybe this is old news for others, or maybe not as interesting as I think), is that Palin's favorability rating is right in the same ball park as the other three candidates:

From Rass:"McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 55% (see trends). Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 56%, Joe Biden by 53%."

While Palin does have the highest by 1%, my guess is that all four numbers are within the margin of error. This stirkes me as another good piece of evidence that while Palin may be a major hit with the base, her cross-over appeal is no greater than any of the candidates.

I think part of the flux in the polls may be the base finally saying they would vote for McCain. Maybe I'm wrong though.

I am personally sick of this playground pissing matc between the campaigns.

I mean we have some huge scary issues out there and the Obama Campaign is releasing news that "although Sarah Palin visited troops on the border of Iraq, her pumps never actually touched actual Iraqi soil so she is a liar!"

I mean, my god!

The American People deserve better than this and McCain is just as guilty as Obama.

What McCain needs to do is come forward and say "Enough is enough! This squabbling is out of control! From now, on, we commit to running no negative ads whatsoever regarding our opposition. Every single one of our ads will be about the issues America cares about. We would hope that the Obama Campaign cares enough about America to do the same..."

boomshak, my child, you are sooo wrong,sit back and let daddy explain, heres why.
your making you assumptions on very week evidence of sampling . The TRUTH IS THE DEMOCRATS OUTNUMBER THE NUMBER OF REGISTERED REPUBLICANS IN THESE STATES BY ROUGHLY 10 Million. Check this information with Gallup, so the republicans need to run up the numbers with the independents in order to compete[This is a result of the primary season]. Theses people are a lot brighter than the fundamentalist base of the republican. They see right through the Shame that is sarah Palin "Hockey mom" (lol). She is a fraud that was taken for strictly political reasons. She shouldn't even be governor of a state, albeit three times smaller than Queens, NYC , in size, let alone Vice President. This is another one of the Bush tactics to keep power and mess up the government again.
And to your other point about Obama being a socialist, think for a second, your attitude and logic is where Herbert Hoovers was, and you see where that led us. There has to be social programs for the poor, taken from the rich money, other wise there will be such a divide between rich and poor you might end up with what happen in IRAN in 1979. I know it sounds socialist but the only reason we are still here a nation is because of that. THINK ABOUT IT!

boomshak:

Are you serious? Now you're saying this? Where was your outrage when people were talking about the false accusations that Obama wants to teach Kindergarten children about SEX?

It doesn't feel good when your side gets stupid allegations thrown at it does it now?

GLOVES ARE OFF

GAME ON!

OK, so no one is going to convince anyone here to change sides. It is a darn close race as we sit here today and neither side can afford to stub their toe. I mean really stub their toe, not some trumped up crap which is all we seem to be hearing from both sides.

They are politicins. That means all 4 are professional liars. Not that they are bad people. I think all 4 really care and are decent people. They just cant be totally honest for fear it will cost them a vote.

Unless someone really steps in it, the debates are the next realistic chance to move the numbers.

its bit long but worth reading..

its bit long but worth reading..

http://thepage.time.com/obama-camp-memo-on-the-straight-talk-express/

The totally FAKE scandal over Palin never going to Iraq:

Sarah Palin has never claimed to go to Iraq. During her interview with Charlie Gibson, when asked where she had travelled, she never mentioned Iraq - she said she had visited the troops in Kuwait.

And yet, CNN and the Washington Post are screaming "Liar!" and "Scandal!" because Sarah palin never actually stepped physically into Iraq.

So how did this all get started? Well it turns out that one of Palin's aides mistakenly told a reporter somewhere along the way that Palin's Travel Itinerary included a stop in Iraq. That's it! Some off-hand mistaken comment by some un-named aide and suddenly Sarah Palin is a liar?

The left and the MSM have utterly lost their minds.

Robi,

"Are you serious? Now you're saying this? Where was your outrage when people were talking about the false accusations that Obama wants to teach Kindergarten children about SEX?"

I agree, that was an IDIOTIC ad and I cringed when I saw it. He needs to fire his entire ad team.

boomshak:

I hate this game as well but one side can't try to ignore these ads and not fire back.

I hate it so much but this is how McCain wants to play it so this is how the Obama campaign has to do it as well.

It really really sucks and I was all for only talking about the issues, but on my way back to college in late August, I was telling my friend that with the McCain campaign throwing their crap around, the Obama campaign has to fire back at them with stuff similar to it. It didn't work for Kerry and it wouldn't work for Obama.

This sucks and I know it sounds biased saying "they started it" but if you look back at the first official campaign ad that was nothing more than a character smear and also completely false, McCain's campaign came out first with it. I'm not talking 527s, I'm talking official campaign ads.

I followed the campaigns since last summer so I also know what ads came out. Obama has to fire back or else it's like a fighter getting punched in the nuts and saying "that's not fair" while getting punched in the nuts even more. He's gotta punch back.

Outsider, thanks for the link. Pretty awesome summary, along with some new big facts about Palin that directly contradict McCain's message. - Increased GOV SPENDING! How Bush-like of her.

Bet Fox news will read it over and over again... NOT.

Greenspan says McCain's tax cuts are bad for America (not verbatim but the gist of it).

NICE

"McCain has also suggested he would lean heavily on Greenspan's book, "The Age of Turbulence," for advice on economics should he win the White House." -reuters

Oh boy oh boy. I wonder if McCain will listen to greenspan now...

Palin and McCain have decided to lecture everyone on ethics:

http://thepage.time.com/mccain-camp-memo-on-troopergate-subpoenas/

What a joke.

Contrary to their assertions, Palin and McCain are slime.

Troopergate is falling apart. Looks like the Obama Camp may even get their hand caught in the cookie jar trying to tamper with the case:

http://thepage.time.com/mccain-camp-memo-on-troopergate-subpoenas/

Nothing like a memo from the McCain/Palin camp to put our trust in. It's quite frankly a joke. They act like it's not something that was started long before she was picked. McCain/Palin are also ignoring the fact that she's being questioned with good reason on what amounts to 2 separate ethics violations.

It's the law, you can't break it just because you're a Republican.

Brambster; I hope you are right about everything you said in your post. I have believed all along that voter turnout, regardless of poll numbers, will decide this election. But, if the poll numbers at least stay close, people will not stay home, thinking their vote wont matter so why bother. I would love to see a record turnout.

I really and truly believe new voter registration and the youth turnout is not the deal breaker. Yes it isn't reflected in the polling as much, but it's not THAT substantial.

Palin was already under investigation before she was vp and a memo from the McCain campaign holds no water with me in terms of allegations. They are the same people putting out the kindergarten ad.

I really wonder what McCain is going to say about Alan Greenspan. This should be interesting.

September 14, 2008
Once Elected, Palin Hired Friends and Lashed Foes
By JO BECKER, PETER S. GOODMAN AND MICHAEL POWELL

WASILLA, Alaska — Gov. Sarah Palin lives by the maxim that all politics is local, not to mention personal.

So when there was a vacancy at the top of the State Division of Agriculture, she appointed a high school classmate, Franci Havemeister, to the $95,000-a-year directorship. A former real estate agent, Ms. Havemeister cited her childhood love of cows as a qualification for running the roughly $2 million agency.

Ms. Havemeister was one of at least five schoolmates Ms. Palin hired, often at salaries far exceeding their private sector wages.

When Ms. Palin had to cut her first state budget, she avoided the legion of frustrated legislators and mayors. Instead, she huddled with her budget director and her husband, Todd, an oil field worker who is not a state employee, and vetoed millions of dollars of legislative projects.

And four months ago, a Wasilla blogger, Sherry Whitstine, who chronicles the governor’s career with an astringent eye, answered her phone to hear an assistant to the governor on the line, she said.

“You should be ashamed!” Ivy Frye, the assistant, told her. “Stop blogging. Stop blogging right now!”

Ms. Palin walks the national stage as a small-town foe of “good old boy” politics and a champion of ethics reform. The charismatic 44-year-old governor draws enthusiastic audiences and high approval ratings. And as the Republican vice-presidential nominee, she points to her management experience while deriding her Democratic rivals, Senators Barack Obama and Joseph R. Biden Jr., as speechmakers who never have run anything.

But an examination of her swift rise and record as mayor of Wasilla and then governor finds that her visceral style and penchant for attacking critics — she sometimes calls local opponents “haters” — contrasts with her carefully crafted public image.

Throughout her political career, she has pursued vendettas, fired officials who crossed her and sometimes blurred the line between government and personal grievance, according to a review of public records and interviews with 60 Republican and Democratic legislators and local officials.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/us/politics/14palin.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

Right-wing posters response:

(Instead of refuting claims with actual evidence)

"LIBERAL LEFT DEMOCRAT MEDIA BIAS CONSPIRACY RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE!!!!!!"

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have just failed, people.

Lehman is about to fail.

And, AIG is very near failure.

GM is betting on an electric car, but the technology is uncertain.

The entire American economy has been offshored, and you are worried about a stupid bimbo in Alaska who doesn't know a thing about economics and wants to gun down Polar bears,

And, a guy who finished at the bottom of his class in Annapolis.

Wake up, people! If you don't, the America you know will be as extinct as a dodo bird.

The deal MAKER is whether the American people can come to their senses.

This election is a no-brainer. The black guy is better; even with the old white guy running for VP.

The black guy is smarter, more thoughtful, more sensitive, more aware, has a stronger commitment to his family, to God, to American Values of racial harmony and diversity, than does the old white guy that's running.

And, even if he isn't experienced enough (which is highly debatable), he picked a mate who certainly is.

If you think McCain knows what he's doing on Foreign policy; think again.

He really, really believed the Vietnam war was a good idea. Really.

slinky:

Can you show me a source that has John McCain quoted as saying the Vietnam war was a good idea?

I know this is an older topic, but there is actually more question if McCain is actually a native-born U.S. citizen than Obama. McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone in 1936. The law that automatically delcared those born in the CZ wasn't passed until later. However, Congress passed a resolution stating that McCain is a native-born American citizen. Obama's claim to being a native-born citizen is much easier. The 14th ammendmnet states that anyone born subject to the laws and juristiction of the United States is a U.S. citizen. The courts have consistantly ruled that this applies to children born in the U.S. even when BOTH parents are not U.S. citizens, or are even here illegaly.

Tom:

He is a US citizen and, before the right wing has something to actually attack you on, say you know he's a US citizen or else this forum is going to be dominated about how stupid you sound.

Sorry...this question has the same credibility as Obama being a muslim.

Barack needs New Mexico. The other swing states may be stabilizing. New Mexico breaks 270 as it stands today. The Palin bounce seems to be subsiding. Imagine saying "War with Russia? Perhaps so" A fairly bright 16 year old knows that war with Russia is insane. How many thousands of nuclear warheads do they have? Presidents, VPs and candidates dont talk about war with Russia. Okay lets put a novice into the White House and hope for the best. You like playing dice? Also bro-in-law gate may be ugly.

Robi,

Many of McCain's Vietnam war comments (remember, I am 54) were pre-internet. I can try and find them in the Arizona newspapers, or later, in the Washington Post or NY Times, using the index, but here's what's easily accessible:

"I hate the gooks. I will hate them as long as I live."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2000/02/18/MN32194.DTL

Much more ugliness about McCain is available here:

http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com/

PS John McCain is not a mensch.

My understanding is that whether or not either candidate is a "native born" citizen will almost certainly never be adjudicated regardless of the merits, as it would be considered a "political question" and therefore inappropriate for the court to decide.

Additionally most constitutional scholars believe that "natural born" is simply the alternative the "naturalized." McCain (and Obama) is natural born because he was a citizen at birth due to the fact that one (in fact both, but you only need one) of his parents was an American citizen, no matter where he was born.

McCain Citizenship Issue:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/28/us/politics/28mccain.html?_r=1

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/04/americanmccain.html

resolved for me.

No one has standing who can effectively
contest.

Therefore, a non-issue.

so since the lipstick story has died (thank God!!!) whats in the next news cycle you think...Greenspans comments?!? Probably does not affect the numbers much. The highly-educated people have already decided who to vote for Im sure on both sides... they actually vote on policy. hey the Bush policies are great for a segment of the population too(albeit a very small one). So you'll find the highly educated on both sides of the partisan divide. What is going to move the people in the middle... the debates will be seen as a tie unless Obama says something really out there or McCain loses his temper. In past elections what was the tipping point for the independant.. what was the moment and issues involved?

So, McCain is "eligible" to be Pres., but in the light of Freddie Mac, Lehman Bros., flip-flops on Guantanamo torture, failure to contest Gonzalez, and many other foibles, (unconstitutionality of his most important bill...) do we want him to be Pres?

Answer: Only a fool would want McCain as Pres.

Apparently lots of fools in America.

Oh, yeah, I forgot, McC isn't a lawyer and neither is Palin. I guess you don't really
need to know law to be Pres.

Shucks.

I think the last point deserves general mention. We have had an un-lawyer for the last 8 years. I think we don't need more of that.

Despite all of the gloating for the last week by Republicans and the nervousness of the Democrats over the polls, the race has returned to the pre-convention tie about 1 week out from the conventions as expected. As some have mentioned, the slight differences between polls are due to random variation and differences in polling methods, but I would suggest that we have an overall tie. However, much of the McCain gain has resulted from consolidating the Conservative vote in the already-Red states and some movement - though not as much - in the swing states. I think that the debates and GOTV will ultimately decide it and in both cases, Obama has an advantage.

It's nice for once to see the media and Obama standing up to the Republican smear. That alone should inspire his supporters - it inspires me! It's clear from the McCain/Palin interviews as well as the encounters with the Republican talking heads that anytime you ask for specifics rather than taking their talking points at face value, they don't have anything to say.

I'm inspired as hell now that I know we're not going to put up with it anymore.

GAME ON

@boomshak

Your comment that McCain should be "losing by a mile" doesn't seem to be based entirely in reality. Quite frankly, anybody who thought that a campaign against John McCain was going to be a cakewalk for any Democratic candidate, let alone a candidate like Obama, is truly failing to see the realities on the ground.

This race was never going to be anything but close. The last several presidential elections have been decided by less than 2-3% points. Moreover, couple McCain's name recognition and public persona as 'war-hero' and the relatively favorable coverage he'd gotten from the press in the past, anyone with half a brain could have seen even two years out that he was the candidate to beat.

Your deluding yourself if you think that Obama should be leading by some incredible margin. What statements like that say to me is that aside from reading and interpreting poll numbers and media accounts you've got little to no experience actually working the front lines of any sort of campaign and that your insights are suspect at best.

The thing I don't like about the Obama campaign is they pretend they know something we don't. Ploffle says forget about the Gallup poll. They were floored by the Palin choice and are still recovering. They spent two weeks teasing the media about their VP pick and when they announced Biden all it did was make the Clintonites furious. Until today the media itself was hitting McCain harder than Obama was. I don't think Axelrod and Ploffle are as smart as they think they are.

I think one of the reasons for the inevitable narrowing of polling numbers near the end of virtually every race is that the leader doesn't want to appear too aggressive for fear that they will create a gaffe and destroy their own lead. So, they play it safe, as Obama did for much of the summer. The trailing campaign then has the advantage of making the first attack, to which the leading campaign must respond. McCain realized that he had nothing on Obama based on issues, so he hail-Maryied it with Palin and has received an initial strong reaction. Long term, though, I think her effect will diminish once the new wears off (as it may be starting to do).

@The totally FAKE scandal over Palin never going to Iraq:

You said "The totally FAKE scandal over Palin never going to Iraq", but the McCain-Palin campaign said:

Truth says:

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/09/13/palin_camp_clarifies_extent_of_iraq_trip/
"Following her selection last month as John McCain's running mate, aides said Palin had traveled to Ireland, Germany, Kuwait, and Iraq to meet with members of the Alaska National Guard. During that trip she was said to have visited a "military outpost" inside Iraq. The campaign has since repeated that Palin's foreign travel included an excursion into the Iraq battle zone."

Not only that, her "trip" to Ireland was a refueling stop for her airplane.

They will say and do anything to get elected. They lie purposefully and continue to lie even when the media has widely debunked their lies. Obama isn't for teaching kindergartners how to have sex, Obama isn't going to raise income taxes for anyone except for those making more than 95% of the population. Palin didn't sell that jet on eBay, and she wasn't opposed to the Bridge to Nowhere until Congress told her that she couldn't use the $233 million for this project (but gave it to Alaska anyway), yet that didn't stop her from saying both of these things even today in a rally in Nevada.

I say keep up the good work. No one can prove how hypocritical and cynical the Republicans are better than the Republicans themselves!

It's so obvious to me that if the Republicans had any positive issues to run a campaign around, they would present them, but they know they don't. What truth could they say? "Hey, let me outsource your job and give your boss a tax cut.". They know that this isn't what the American people would respond to. So, they generate hate, bigotry, and mistrust and feed off the pervasive false consciousness of many Americans.

False consciousness leads a lot of people to somehow identify with the rich who don't share their interests and abhor the intellectuals who do. Such people consider you "elite" if you're educated, but not if you own 10 homes and buy 300K dresses. The rich "elite", it would appear, are just like them in their minds and they vote accordingly. And, when things get worse, blame is placed not on the rich and their Republican allies who refuse to increase the minimum wage and offer a social safety net, but rather on gay marriage, abortion and the declining morals of America.

Regarding this repeated claim that "Obama should be wining by a mile", let's put this into proper context.

Because Bush was such a weak candidate, Republicans started in 2000 by playing a game of lowering expectations. So if Gore ever failed to completely gut Bush, Gore was failing, even if he won.

They did the same thing in 2004, and of course in 2008. So if you follow this propaganda, you would believe that if McCain was behind by 5 points, Obama would be failing to meet expectations, or even more simply failing. Everyone likes a winner, so Republicans paint a winner as failing, or a loser as winning.

So whenever you see any McCain supporter claiming that Obama should be ahead by a mile, you know that this person is either being disingenuous, or this person is fooled by propaganda. It's that simple.

http://www.johnmccainrecord.com/mclobbyist/

GAME ON

The level of ignorance on this blog is appalling. Please, can all of you get off the web and go read a book? You might begin with the Federalist papers.

Lappel1:

How about contributing something substantial if you're so much better than me?

Good Morning

Rasmussen: "For polling data released during the week of September 14-20, 2008, the targets are 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the previous week, the targets were 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated"

Rasmussen Daily Tracker McCain 50 % Obama 47%

Well that would account for an extra 1% in this poll to McCain LfL yesterday and any Ras poll published in the last 2 weeks!

The Rasmussen poll clearly had a very, very good day for McCain Thursday. I'm very interested in what it does tomorrow, when that day cycles out. The fact that it held for two days suggests that Friday and Saturday are similar to Tuesday and Wednesday, which means that Thursday's release of a tie is a good prediction for tomorrow.

Since Rasmussen's numbers are the main numbers sustaining the McCain bounce at the moment, that should be interesting.

@Lappel1

Now, now. You're being like McCain - making a statement without an substantive backup. Please clearly explain and give examples of how we're being "ignorant". And, as an extra challenge, try doing so without using a Republican talking point.

Dr. Craig:

The conservatives: "generate hate, bigotry, mistrust...and blame the problems on gay marriage, abortion, and the declining morals of America."

A great book on this subject is WHAT'S THE MATTER WITH KANSAS? Thomas Frank, author. I encourage anyone to read it. It sets out exactly how the conservatives are able to pull this off, while at the same time advancing their own agenda which exacerbate the true problems of everyday people.

I was quite pleased to see that the MSM now seems to be turning on Mcc's false and misleading ads. The Repubs dont have 527s this time to do their dirty work for them; so they have to answer for it.

Giuliani's chant of 'most left wing ever' smells of New York Daily News logic. There is no objective way to compare 'most left wing', 'most right wing', so Giuliani's invective boils to 'dark skinned socialist'. Of course, without saying so.

Let Giuliani explain his healthcare policy, his economic policy, his international politics, his vision for energy policy. Let Giuliani explain those.

Obama needs to take a day to start the discussion going again on how to approach national catastrophes in a way that does not eviscerate our economy, and how to regulate banks so that they don't fail and aren't subject to predation by foreign sources of capital.

The US is in a shambles. Only Obama offers a way out with a new brain trust. The brain trust of McCain has been in power for long enough. They clearly haven't the solutions.

Rove's strategy today is to tell us Obama is winning!

09:25 | 14/09/2008
Karl Rove, Former Republican Strategist
Fox News Sunday

Karl Rove has released a new electoral map which shows McCain making gains in the west. It also shows Pennsylvania and Michigan slipping into the "toss up" column. However, Rove stressed, as things stand Obama would cross the hurdle of 270 votes needed to win the White House.

But, I don't believe him. He is disingenuously saying this to bring out the vote for McCain.

These guys are pretty sleazy.

The race is a tie.

farvejet.. do you know that Palin got Health Benefits for gay couples in Alaska? (she vetoed a bill banning those rights)

O bama , on the other hand,,, tours the country with a minister who believes all gays SHOULD be converted to hetero by Christ.

What minister is Obama touring the country with Tybo?

Why don't you lie and cheat some more...

You haven't enough.

@favrejet2008

Wish that were true for 527s. I read an article last night on WashingtonPost.com saying that some of the Swift Boaters were planning a campaigan later in the year. The SEIU and MoveOn.org are planning counter campaigns. I suspect that Obama got word that this was going to happen and that's why he silently released the 527s to work.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/13/AR2008091302270.html

zotz,

I know people you have mentioned in the Obama campaign. Rest assured that Sen. Obama is aware, as Dr. King was, that this is in part a referendum on race. That the US will, in this next vote, declare whether it is a racist country or not. And, at the top of Obama's campaign they really, really believe that the US has grown beyond racism.

I am not as sure as they are.

I worked through the link above to all the places Ms. Palin has traveled. I have five comments: (1) how many different stories will be there be; (2) how difficult is it for Ms. Palin to actually reconcile her foreign traveling experience; (3) did the McCain campaign concoct the inside Iraq fable; (4) how can the campaign not have not known (or Palin) whether she had been in Canada ... seems incomprehensible for someone who is from Idaho and Alaska and (5) who cares whether she traveled to Mexico on vacation?

We can drop all the pretense. The campaign saying that since she is in Alaska, she understands Russia because it is next door??? Ms. Palin has no foreign policy experience of any kind and cannot respond to any question based on experience. So on that count I give her a zero. On the domestic front, being a mayor of a very small town and the governor of a small population state for less than two years gives her a couple points maybe but that is it.

I will not go into the lies/distortions which she continues to pass as true or her positions which clearly are right of McCains.

Sorry, tybo, but I'm afraid the evidence doesn't support your assessment of Palin's gay stance, including the example you give.

http://www.bentalaska.com/2008/08/palin-supports-gay-rights.html

Forget about Palin... Obama has NEVER been South of the border. I am still trying to discover a source to see if he has even been to Canada.

Now pay attention to this idea-- The more Obama and Obamanation focus on Palin, the more it hurts Obama.

---------

So slinky has joined this blog to "race-bait." Great job beating a dead horse.

KipTin

The issue is lies, distortions and misrepresentations.

Simply you can not believe or accept any thing that the McCain Campaign says as virtually eveything on Palin is distorted and not true completely and partially.

As regards MmCacin himself it seems that he supports the lies that his stafferes have been putting out which means he either has lost control or he is a liar himself.

John McCain is a Liar its as simple as that.

"For polling data released during the week of September 14-20, 2008, the targets are 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the previous week, the targets were 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated" Rasmussen

50 - 47 McCain with Rasmussen weighting of prior August 31 this poll would be 48 -48!

I think that this re-weighting from my favorite pollster is ominous. In 2004 what was the weighting of the voter? Is Ras now of the opinion that there are less registered Democratsa in 2008 than in in 2004? or indeed in June 2008?

craig, son.

She did veto the bill,.. on the the other hand ,there's obama's anti gay minister
Donnie McClury (sp). He's participated in more than 20 Obama rallies thru out the south

Gallup "The latest results, based on Sept. 11-13 interviewing, are the same as Saturday's report. McCain had led by as many as five percentage points in recent days, but the margin has narrowed to a statistical tie in each of the last three reports. The race has been competitive throughout the campaign, with neither candidate able to sustain a sizeable lead. Obama has held the largest lead for either candidate at nine points, but only for one day."

Rasmussen has McCain 50% Obama 47% but has changed his ID weighting + 1.5% Repub from Independents and Democrats now only 5.1% more Democrats in the weighting.

Yes... Gallup (registered voters) has McCain 47/Obama 45. With a margin of error 2%, a statistical tie.

(May I remind Obamanation that they kept insisting that Obama even be one point ahead on a daily basis was a "win" for Obama.)
-------

Yes... Rasmussen (likely voters) has McCain 50/Obama 47.

(May I remind Obamanation that they insisted that Obama was "winning" because he broke the 50% barrier. Well, look who is there now.)
---------

Yes, they changed their weighting and will do so every week until the election. The weighting is based on six weeks (rather than the former 3 months) of polling.

Other recent polls have also noted a similar shift as reflected in Rasmussen weighting.

Undecided

Research 2000 tracker
Obama 47 McCain 45

The thing about Rasmussen we are no longer comparing apples & apples any more.

2004 election what was the difference between Democratic and Republicans on ID?

Hey... thoughtful... Your "methodology" leaves MUCH to be desired.

Read the Rasmussen narrative on its weighting change more carefully. It specifically states 1/2% point difference effect between the two.

KipTin

You misrepresent just like the Candidate you support, please read plain English below:

"For polling data released during the week of September 14-20, 2008, the targets are 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the previous week, the targets were 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated" Rasmussen

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/14

Here is info for 2000 and 2004 respectively:

Democrats 39 37
Republicans 35 37
Independents 27 26

Source: CNN exit poll results

It is absolutely clear from Rasmussen and both the Gallup and the Research 2000 polls that the convention bounce that McCain/Palin had has evaporated on a like for Like basis.

Those of my Repub friends that rely on the Rasmussen poll: it now has adjusted its ID party weighting to produce between a 3.2% and 2.5% more favorable poll to McCain/Palin since August 31st.

It would appear that Rasmussen has factored into his weighting polling results rather than actual current registration numbers in adjusting his poll weighting ID.

Undecided we agree on 2000/4 polling stats.

WHAT? ... thoughtful...You are really a RUDE person for making FALSE accusations. I did not MISREPRESENT. You in fact misinterpreted what I said (probably because of your own bias).

I was directly referring to Rasmussen LINK as follows:

"New Rasmussen Reports Party Weighting Targets: 38.7% Democrat 33.6% Republican"--
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_party_weighting_targets_38_7_democrat_33_6_republican

For polling data released during the week of September 14-20, 2008, the new targets are 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the first thirteen days of September, the targets were 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated. It should be noted that these figures indicate an improvement for Democrats since the beginning of the year.

In terms of immediate impact on the tracking poll results, a one-percentage point increase in the number of Republicans would typically lead to a little less than half-a-percentage point increase in support for John McCain. That’s because McCain has a roughly 80 percentage point lead among Republicans but is essentially even among unaffiliated voters. A one-percentage point decrease in the number of Democrats would half the same impact."

New weighting: Democrats -1, GOP +1.5, Unaffiliated +.5.

So therefore one can estimate that based on old weighting McCain gained about 1 point.

"New weighting: Democrats -1, GOP +1.5, Unaffiliated +.5."

You are Wrong

unafilliated -0.5 from 28.2 to 27.7.

tybo, don't patronize - I'm not your son and I would be ashamed to be so.

Kiptin/Undecided

The principle of a voter leaving McCain -1 and going to Obama +1 = +2

Now you know thatand I know that but the good folks at home that watch FOX don't know that.

This is all part of playing fast and loose, lies and deceptions, and thinly disguised mis- or re-representation as Rasmussen at least is telling us that he is doing it.

Undecided/Kiptin

Thus with the re-weighting of the Rasmussen polls twice since August 31st McCain polls a minimum of 2.5% better and probably more than 3.2% better on the ID weighting adjustments.

The argument is not whether Ras has got his re-weighting right. I want to look at Apples and Apples when I am doing trend lines of the same pollster!

From a statistical point of view, the significant development is the fact that all of the polls have essentially moved from significant difference several days ago to a statistical tie now. For all intents and purposes, the bounces have ended.

I would prefer that Rasmussen not weight by party identification - it makes it hard to compare their polls from day to day and true affiliation is unlikely to change so quickly. Most pollsters just take the luck of the draw and qualify their conclusions if any odd results occur, eg, 80% republican in a single sample.

Does anybody know what proportions Rasmussen is using for AA vote. I don't think there is any way that LV for AA will be 55-60%. I see more like 75-80%. Yet Rasmussen still seems to be penalizing Obama numbers by eliminating more of his support than McCain. And what about undersampling due to the large numbers that Obama ground game is bringing in?

@ atreides

This all part of creating the Big Mo for McCain/Palin to usurp the election.

It is part of the systemic in conditioning/brain washing the voter from exagerating crowd numbers, through all the lies etc. All various strands of the strategy.

Have no illusions these are the same people who tried to impeach Bill Clinton over matters in his private life which were hardly high crimes etc! They will stop at nothing to cling onto power.

While Rasmussen has been documented as a right-leaning pollster, I don't necessarily dismiss his polls on this basis alone. He is fairly transparent with his methodology, which I appreciate. The reality is that in most cases, elections are close. Even John Kennedy won by less than 1% and in that year, large swings occurred. The tipping point then was the debate and I think that the debates and GOTV will be the big issues this year. In 1980, Reagan turned a -3 the night before the election into a +10 just based on GOTV.

But you either think that AA's are going to show up for a historic election or you don't. If you going to mess with the party id differential, you should adjust the AA proportion. I don't know
how the young people will actually perform but my guess is that the AA participation rate should be at 80%. No way should Obama be losing more votes than McCain in a LV sample.

@atreides

I agree with you. AAs will get to the polls in unprecedented numbers.

18-29 demo is tightening a bit I am not sure why. They will vote in greater numbers than last time roud, it's how great, that's the $64K question.

AAs will be 75-80%

I anticipate big turnout from the latinos as well,

My biggest concern for Obama right now is retreiving the independent vote. These have swung in large part right now to McCain and that's making it close. McCain has shot himself in the foot with Hispanics in his Univision interview, so the independents are all that's making it close for him. If Obama can swing them back, it's over for McSame/Pander '08

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/14/71953/5266/529/597461

Why would an independent be seduced by Palin. Sure you have some women who just want to see a woman VP. But she is so antithetical to most independent women, that I don't see how that could have happened. I think the Obama campaign actually got a break. the Bradley effect has now been exposed and now they can work to make up the differential. Palin will begin to wear thin in a few weeks as some white males that have migrated to her will get buyers remorse. I hope you're right about latinos because they are needed in NM and CO.

"tybo, don't patronize - I'm not your son"

YOu're right , you're not. No child of mine would be so insecure as to have to call himself "dr craig".

@atreides

She's the next big thing, but Americans have a very short attention span. Fortunately, the race is still long enough to expose her and for people to get tired of her and McCain's lies.

I'm as stumped as you are about the independents. They seem to have a general reputation as being really thoughtful and careful about their decision. Of course, anyone who didn't realize how disasterous McCain was long ago brings this reputation into doubt for me.

@tybo

That's my name because I am. I have a Ph.D. in statistics. How about your education? More like mine, or more like McCain/Palin's?