Pollster.com

NBC has 40-40 among RV's and 53-35 for likelies.

An 18% LV adjustment. So CNN LV adjustment would yield a 25% gap, I guess.

Ras just released Boxer/Fiorina.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ca/california_senate_boxer_vs_fiorina-1094.html

First time Ras has Fiorina up in 14 tries.

Last three were Boxer up 5,5,7.

All pollsters converging on Rasmussen:

Note that since switching to LV, nearly all major polls have converged on Rass.

As some of us have said all along, the criticisms of Ras "house effects" were way off base. The difference was almost entirely due to LV filters. The only question until now was whether Rass was making assumptions that were excessively favorable to reps.

We have the answer now. No!!!!!!!!

I am waiting for the apologies to Ras. Hear me Oh Nate Silver.

..... still waiting.

I see Gallup is back tied amongst registered voters....46% to 46%. That is similiar to the numbers in most polls that also include registered voters numbers like WP/ABC and NBC/WSJ.

The key again is for DEMS to get their base to vote. If they can then they can save the Senate and might even be able to hold on narrowly to the House...maybe.

@Ced

That's what it's going to come down to. Looks like I'll actually have the chance to do some meaningful precinct walking this time around.

The main reason the GOP is getting they're base excited is because the talk of repealing the HCB..Laura Ingrahm asked Cantor lastweek was he going to repeal the HCB,and his answer was yes,because the GOP is going to vote to not fund it..No Congress in this Country history voted to not fund a Major bill...The GOP is lying to they're voters about this,because the Republicans knows they wont have the votes to do it...The GOP is going to face a big back-lash from they're voters if they don't defund the HCB,assuming they take back the House.

CNN had the Dems up by 10% the week before the Midterms in 2008,and the Dems only gained 21 seats..CNN had the gop up by 12% the day before the 2002 Midterms,and the gop only gained 5 seats...

Melvin, CNN had Dems up by 9% in 2008 and Dems won 257 seats to GOP's 178.

In 2002, CNN had Dems up by 5% for REGISTERED voters. Dems were up, not GOP. GOP won 229 seats to Dems 204. Not sure where the other two seats went. So CNN had GOP 12% lower for Registered voters than they do in today's release and GOP still beat Dems.

You can see it here.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2002.htm

CNN never ever ever had GOP up 7% in their polling.

StatyPolly: The Dems had 236 going into the 2008 elections,and the gop had 225 seats going into the 2002 Midterms..What you doing is trying to blow it up..Nice try.

Melvin, it does not matter how many seats a party holds going into election. Since every seat is up for reelection every time.

Even if Dems held 0 seats going into 2008 election, and GOP had all 435 seats, Dems still would have won the majority of seats since they held a large lead in generic ballot polls.

You're assuming an even or somewhat even distribution of the vote. That's not the case.

At best, only 100 of the 435 seats are legitimately contested in any year.

I know RCP is listing more this year, but they are listing some ridiculous seats like TX-27 that have 1 or 2% chance of changing hands.