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US: Generic Ballot (Fox 6/29-30)

Topics: National , poll

Fox News / Opinion Dynamics
6/29-30/10; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fox News release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
42% Republican, 40% Democrat (chart)

 

Comments
Mike E:

When you take into account the Faux-KKK-hitler-thuglican effect this is clearly 100% Dem, 0% republican. Nate Silver calculated this using:

(((PIE/120%) * (# of polls)/date corrector)^2/(sqrt (transparency factor)) regressed to cosine (pollster skill rank)) e^2.578)* c (furlongs per fortnight))

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seg:

I wonder if instead of tipping back to demos, the electorate is making up their minds to throw these other bums out.

I would not be surprised to see Republicans open up to a 5-pt RV lead over time. Adding LV effects, that puts it up to 10 points or more.

Right now and unless something big happens real soon now, based on generic polls from Gallup, Fox, et al., demos could lose the House by 5-15 seats, a turnover of 48-58 seats. I say this despite Sabato, Silver, and others showing seat by seat races adding up to a near tie or better for demos (Cook and CQ are heavily demo-biased in their judgments). I think they are wrong for one reason: wave elections almost always include some surprises, and this is looking more and more like a wave+ election.

The public is begging for a reason not to despise Republicans. If they had one, they could turn their venom solely on demos, who have used and greatly abused their super majorities. I say again that if the Republicans can come up with Contract with America, Version II, with POSITIVE planks, demos will be crispy critters.

If I were in charge of Republicans (please resign, Steele!), I would develop 8 or 9 positive points and pound them night and day. I would also point with unfeigned alarm at 2000+ page bills and Obama's most recent radical appointments, especially the pocket appt of the medical czar.

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seg:

Mike E:
Good one. I think we could show the derivation of this from first political principles.

I will also add one more pounding point for Republicans: PHARMA's support for demos, especially the inexecrable Harry Reid.

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Farleftandproud:

This poll makes me fairly happy. They overpolled Republicans and Underpolled Democrats.

Polling was conducted by telephone June 29-30, 2010, in the evenings. The total
sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of sampling error of 3
percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.
Democrats n=340, ±5; Republicans n=324, ±5.5; Independents n=176, ±7

The GOP holds a 7 point edge over indies whereas Gallup was about 18 percent. I would guess the generic is basically tied.

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Farleftandproud:

I have a feeling that if the GOP threw Steele out, he will be replaced with someone more extreme like a Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich or Santorum.

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melvin:

It appears the West Vir Gov is going to have a special election in November thanks to Fox News who has been pushing the idea since Senator Byrd died,the Democrats always caves in to the Republicans on everything, am so damm sick in tired of it.Fox news is the reason for this,why is the Democrats so damm scared of Fox News? The Whitehouse is going to announce next week that the Helen Thomas seat is going to go to Fox News.I got news for you Democrats'no matter how you kiss Fox News ass their still going to try in destroy you.

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melvin:

John Mccain was quoted today saying send all the illegal immigrants back home.John Mccain has really hurted the latino cummunity,because the Hispanics was the reason he won in ARZ in 2008 against Obama, he got 58% of the latino vote, so why is he hurting the latino cummunity,does his Senate seat means that much.

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ndirish11:

John McCain was quoted saying send all the illegal immigrants back home? How dare he want people who illegally crossed our borders to go home? We should be giving them cake and free healthcare!

I don't think John McCain has "hurted" the Latino community.

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iVote:

I agree with ndirish11. If someone breaks into your house and tries to live out of your basement, you don't ask them how they're doing and bring them down milk and cookies.

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tjampel:

melvin:

"It appears the West Vir Gov is going to have a special election in November thanks to Fox News who has been pushing the idea since Senator Byrd died..."

Actually this is a very tough call for Mancin, who wants the seat. He promised not to appoint himself and he doesn't want to wait till 2012, when his appointee might have solidified his or her position there (and made a primary challenge untenable) and he also probably wouldn't want to appoint a pure caretaker for 2 1/2 long years. The law clearly says 2012 is when the election should take place. Changing the law will be necessary in order to hold a special election this year.

Mancin has a 70% approval rating in WV and there's no first tier Republican right now and probably no one capable of raising huge sums of money that Mancin most likely already has in his war chest. I'm not worried about losing this seat, frankly. I don't think it's a gamble or bad idea to hold this election now. What I'd like to see is a decision on that score and quick appointment of someone who will be a reliable vote with Dems until the special election is held.

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SC Guy:

Contrary to what some people think, the Fox News Poll has often been one of the least kind to Republicans on Election Day. If memory serves correctly, it was one of the few polls to show Kerry leading in 2004 in its final poll.
But that aside, America really needs checks and balances in its government. The Obama Administration and the vast Dem majorities in both houses of Congress have shown that they're unworthy of this absolute power.

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