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US: Generic Ballot (Gallup 11/5-8)


Gallup
11/5-8/09; 894 registered voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

National

2010 House: Generic Ballot
48% Republican, 44% Democrat (chart)

 

Comments
JMSTiger:

Very interesting. I believe the only polling firm to show Republicans leading in the Congressional generic ballot at any time this year before this survey was Rasmussen. If Gallup is showing this type of movement toward the GOP, it is real.

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JMSTiger:

Independents now favor the Republicans in the generic ballot question, 52%-30%. Not a good sign for Democrats as we head into 2010. Of course, we are still a long way from the mid terms. Plenty of time for things to turn around (or get worse).

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LordMike:

Independent numbers are skewed in all polls now that we know that teabaggers are identifying themselves to be independents... not sure if this poll is weighted... if it is, then it probably needs to be re-evaluated... still, a disturbing sign. Last year, the public rejected the teabaggers, now they seem to be embracing them. Very scary, indeed, and rather unusual that the public would want to bring back to power a group that was so vehemently rejected only a year ago, especially considering that Republicans have the worst approval ratings and the lowest ID's ever. Makes little sense.

And, despite it all, Obama still has good numbers... so, it all makes very little sense...

This must be a result of the ugly "sausage-making" process of health care reform. Once that passes, there should be some improvement...

Gallup showing this is certainly disturbing... lots of conflicting data going around. Thank goodness the elections are one year away... the dems better make the most of this, so that their base turns out!

I'm sure Stillow will be crowing...

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Alan Abramowitz:

Lately Gallup has been showing stronger GOP results on party id and generic ballot than other major polls except Rasmussen. I don't know who's right but it seems odd to see this much variation even before likely voter screens are applied.

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Stillow:

Heatlh Care................its killing the Dems. It will eventually drag down Obama's #'s too......you cannot force an unpopular bill thru without consequences.

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LordMike:

Once it passes, and people realize that the actual law is NOTHING like the lies that portray it (including yourself, Stillow), the numbers will improve. Everytime polls metion what's *actually* in the bills instead of what Fox News says are in the bills, the polls show significant approval. There are just too many people who have no clue what's in these bills or how they will help them. A good reminder will come at the State of the Union address...

Democratic infighting over it doesn't help at all, and is probably the number one reason why we are seeing polls like this. If the dems every unify on anything, there will be improvement.

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Stillow:

Here we go again with liberals telling us whats good for us. You libs are making the biggest mistake of your poltical lives. Once it passes and people are subjected to it....the Dems may ifnd themselves as a miniority party i nthis country. That is why congress exempts themselves....there is no way the elite will subject themselves to this horrific bill.

The democrat infighting is because moderate Dems know this bill is awful. It lowers quality and increases costs.....that is soemthing that mkes sense only to the liberals.

Yes libs, tell us what is good for us. help us poor weak minded average people cope with our stupidity....please take pitty on us and show us the light. Only with your wisdom and guidence can we even get dressed in the morning.

The Dems are making one of the biggest political miscalculations in american history.

Polls show weak support for it....but libs think as usual, you are just to sutpid to know whats good for you.

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Stillow:

By the way, thru various ammendmentattempts, etc....the House Dems voted 11 times to retain the exemption for themselves......

You libs....have no problem throwing all of us in the fire while allowing your rulers to escape the fire. You libs must live a very sad existance to be so needy and helpless as this issue portrays you.

Living on your knees must hurt. One standard for us, and one for g'ment....yep, seems real fair to me.................

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LordMike:

Oh, please... the same things were said about Medicare and social security. The reason why the GOP is fighting so hard against health care reform is 'cos they know it will doom them in the future. Orrin Hatch actually came right out and said it publicly the other day--health care reform would literally KILL the GOP according to him.

How can anyone live with themselves supporting the denial of access to health care for 40 million people... it's unconscionable...

BTW, if you ant to lower costs you have to RATION. The insurance companies are doing a good job of that, but they save the profits for their CEO's yachts... it doesn't save anyone any money.

Oh, and BTW, the Senate bill specifically prescribes that all congressfolk and their staff must participate in the exchanges for their future healthcare needs, just like the rest of us... so, you can stop with the Fox News lies...

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LordMike:

The democratic infighting, BTW is coming from moderate dems who have been bought and paid for by the insurance industry, just like the GOP.

When you see comments like yours repeating complete falsehoods about the plans in congress, it's no wonder that support is low. People are willing to believe outright lies. But, Clinton is right... once it passes, and people realize that the lies are untrue, and health care reform actually helps them, the GOP is done forever. That is why they are fighting so hard and spreading lie after lie... They are scared, just like Orrin Hatch said.... they know they will be done for!

I hope you never get sick, Stillow, and have to deal with the horrors of trying to pay for health care with a "pre-existing" condition... your tune would change right quick if you did.

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Stillow:

Your right, health care reform as its presently constructed would KILL us due to lack of coverage, waiting lists, etc. We agree on that!!

The exemption exists in the House bill, tha tis the only bill that has passed anything...so that is what we must go with for now. As a liberal who cannot think for himself, do you support your g'ment being exempted from the plan they would force you onto? Or are yo ua radical like me who thinks if its good enough for us it shoudl be good enough for them?

The Dems are committing suicide. Once people actually see what it means and how it feels, the Dems will find themslvces a minoirty party.

You libs are reall ysoemthing. We have about 40 percent approval fro mthe general public for this thing....we have bi partisan opposition to this thing....yet you libs preech to us on how stupid we are and how we don't know whats good for us.

If you libs would spend time running your own lives instead of mine, maybe you guys would be more happy with your lives.

Whats another 1 trillion onto the debt...no big deal.............you libs, its like a game to you, how fast can we bankrupt the country. Lets take soemthing that 80+ percent of people are happy with and totally screw it up and let g'ment run it instead..........

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Stillow:

Stop whining about pre existing conditions. What do you want the insuranc ecompanies to do? Let me get this straight.

I don't have insurance....then I get sick and want to go buy it??????? How is that any different than choosing not to get homeowners insurance and then your house burns down....should I be able to go to the insurance comapny and say, hey, my house just burned down can I get insurance please? Hey I just got i na car accident, I'd like insurance please now please. Hey I died yesterday, is it to late to get life insurance?

Very small reforms will resolve the pre existing condition glitch. I have insurance, so if I get sick I have insurance already....

You mentioned ceo's at insuranc ecompanies having yatchts???? How is that any different from politicans flying aroun;d in private jets? Or traveling all aorund the world on our dime? Or being hauled around i ntax paye paid for limo's? So its ok for your ruling g'ment liberals to prance around in al lthat stuff, but not ok for soemone else i nthe privae sector to do it?

Your totally absurd!!!!!!!

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Field Marshal:

Stillow,

You are correct AND LordMike are correct. LordMike is correct in that we do need to ration health care. You are right that people will now have long lines and waits to get that health care BECAUSE of that rationing.

I think Stillow is also correct that this passing will hurt the Dems big time in 2010. Remember, Gallup had the reps up by 2 in 1994 when they retook the house and senate.

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LordMike:

"Very small reforms will resolve the pre existing condition glitch. I have insurance, so if I get sick I have insurance already...."

Then you lose it the following year and can't get coverage anywhere else. This isn't like car insurance, once you are sick once, you NEVER can get health insurance again, and you get kicked off your current plan or they rais eth erates so sky high, you can't afford it.

The "small fix" you are talking about was implemented in 1996 in the Kennedy-Kassenbaum HIPAA act. Guess what? It didn't work.

Small fixes won't solve the problem. The GOP "alternative" bill was scored by the CBO as INCREASING the number of uninsured while existing policyholders would se their coverages plummet. Comprehensive reform is the only way to make it work.

The Democratic plans are too timid, if anything... Without something like single payer, you're never going to get a good handle on these things 'cos private insurers will continue to screw over people in the name of profits.

Health care shouldn't be handled by insurers anyways... When you buy car insurance, you never expect to use it... same with home insurance... but, you'll inevitably get sick or injured, which is why health insurance is so expensive....

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Stillow:

Right single payer....except for your saviors in g'ment.....who you obviously have no issue with them taking exotic vacations on your dime and enjoying htere private jets, but me her ei nthe private sector, I cannot....that is bad. So the Dem plan is to cover everything for everyone, lower costs and have no wiating lists or rationing. Ya...and Optimus Prime is parked in my garage....and I have a tree that grows real money.

Its impossible to make you libs see anything in the real world. You exist only in theory.

Lordmike, just for you I am going t9 call my life insurance company and ask if I can take a life insurance policy out on my grandmother who died a few years ago....I will let you know what they say.

And its untrue what you said about not being able to get coverage again. Most employer based coverage will cover pre existing conditions.If my kids are sick for example or have a chronic condition and I change jobs and get on a new plan at my new company, they will cover my kids conditions...its party of the packaging most employers get. This is why the GOP plan of allowing small business to bundle together to buy coverage will get them better plans and lower pricing.

Again, you ignore that all polling shows over 80 percent of people like there insurance just fine. I wonder what the approval rating is of some g'ment run entities....say the DMV? How about the IRS? How about education, that running real well. Perhaps social security, lets poll on wheater social security provides enough income to live off of. The post office perhaps? Each of those ntitlements is out of money, has projected financial needs which far surpass the money available in our system to pay for it....so lets add antoher entitlement called health care.

Ya, surely China will keep buying our debt right? Its only money right? Like I said above, I have a tree that grows money.

Again, people like me buying things like fancy cars is bad, but g'ment employees getting private jets is good.

A g'ment big enough to give you everything you need, is big enough to take everything you have - President Ford

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JMSTiger:

How will the people know that this bill is not what FoxNews and the right claim it is when it won't take effect until 2013? Meanwhile, we will have massive cuts in Medicare and unemployment is over 10%.

Let's face facts, 2010 is not going to be a good year for the Democrats, especially when the Democratic base is not excited about voting in non-Presidential election years and the right is busting at the seams to come out and vote.

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011121:

Seems like an outlier given other polling and the general trend. Unless we see more polling supporting this data I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.

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011121:

"Let's face facts, 2010 is not going to be a good year for the Democrats,"

I suspect the dems will lose house seats and maybe 2-5 senate seats but unless the recession double dips or something big happens I doubt it'll be worse than that. Yes the economy sucks and the dems will get blamed for it. But at the same time the rep brand is abysmal and they're going through a messy civil war that has already cost them one safe rep seat and looks to make others competitive for the dems. The reps are just not in a position to capitalize on dem weakness.

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JMSTiger:

You say that the GOP brand is abysmal, but they still routed the Democratic candidate for governor in Virginia (biggest loss for the Democrats in that state in decades) and won in deep blue New Jersey. If the Democratic base sits at home in 2010 like they did in 2009, 2010 will be a bloodbath.

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011121:

"You say that the GOP brand is abysmal, but they still routed the Democratic candidate for governor in Virginia (biggest loss for the Democrats in that state in decades) and won in deep blue New Jersey. If the Democratic base sits at home in 2010 like they did in 2009, 2010 will be a bloodbath."

The commonality of both those races is the unpopularity of the dem. Obviously if dems only run unpopular candidates then it is unimportant that the rep brand is unpopular. Notice also how hard McDonnall worked not to be associated with the GOP. His commercials often carried no indication of his party. He ran a local campagin, and ran it well, but obviously he knew getting close to the GOp would be a problem.

The dem base delivered two congressional seats to the dems in nov 2009 (and another earlier in the year). I think if that's the kind of "bloodbath" that happens in 2010 the dems will be thrilled.

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011121:

"You say that the GOP brand is abysmal, but they still routed the Democratic candidate for governor in Virginia (biggest loss for the Democrats in that state in decades) and won in deep blue New Jersey. If the Democratic base sits at home in 2010 like they did in 2009, 2010 will be a bloodbath."

The commonality of both those races is the unpopularity of the dem. Obviously if dems only run unpopular candidates then it is unimportant that the rep brand is unpopular. Notice also how hard McDonnall worked not to be associated with the GOP. His commercials often carried no indication of his party. He ran a local campagin, and ran it well, but obviously he knew getting close to the GOp would be a problem.

The dem base delivered two congressional seats to the dems in nov 2009 (and another earlier in the year). I think if that's the kind of "bloodbath" that happens in 2010 the dems will be thrilled.

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011121:

sorry for the double post, first one gave me an error message so I resent it.

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Stillow:

You libs are to funny. When democrats lose you whip out a book of excuses. Oh the base stayed home. Oh the candidiate was unpopular. Oh the GOP stole votes. Oh we didn't expect to wi nthere anyway. Oh it was there turn to win. Name your excuse and the Dems have it.

But when a republican loses its all of a sudden this huge liberal agenda mandate for big g'ment. When a republican loses it means people hate the party and are now in love with the democrats....yet wh nthe dems get blown away, the nthe book of excuses comes out.

Libs, your not good for much, but you are definately good for a laugh or two now and then.

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011121:

Yes when a dem loses but the generic ballot, party ID,trust on issues, and so forth all favor dems it's pretty reasonable to assume that the particular dem had something to do with it.

Similarly when a rep loses but in addition the generic ballot, party ID,trust on issues, and so forth all go against the rep it's reasonable to infer a backlash against the GOP in general.

It's a simple matter of being able to look at more than one piece of data at a time.

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Alan Abramowitz:

This result is driven largely by independents as Dems would probably hold modest lead among Dem and Rep partisans. But 15 point GOP lead among independents is a little hard to believe. I checked exit poll data from recent midterms and this would be even more strongly Republican vote among independents than 94, much stronger than 2002 which was a good GOP year. And keep in mind that true independents (those with no party leaning) will likely constitute no more than 5-6% of the electorate.

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Stillow:

011121

Where can I get a copy of the Democrats guide to making excuses why we lose elections? Amazon?

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011121:

"Where can I get a copy of the Democrats guide to making excuses why we lose elections? Amazon?"

Start with a class in formal logic and then move on to course work in data analysis. You too can understand if you just apply yourself.

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RAG2:

@ Stillow:

You're so condescending and conceited, not to mention having a taste for bad manners. I'd love to refute your crap point by point--like I usually do (and you'd see if you read the blogs after midnight)--by I'm too busy right now with real stuff. I think you got too much time on your hands.

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