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US: Generic Ballot (Gallup 3/1-7)

Topics: poll

Gallup
3/1-7/10; 1,585 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
47% Democratic candidate, 44% Republican candidate (chart)

 

Comments
djneedle83:

Suck on it Tea Party cult!! The reality is the Democrats are only going to lose 5 senate seats at the most and 20-25 congressional seats. Then when Obama is on the ticket again 2012 the Democrats take back some of those seats.

Most of those seats will be in districts that McCain won in 2008. There are around 40 red districts that congressional Democrats hold at the moment.

If the Republican party had 1 idea on how to improve Healthcare they would run the Democrats out of business. However, the truth is that most members of both parties are mirrors of lobbyists. In the end we are screwed and improvements are only made in incremental nature.

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Stillow:

Ahhh, I wish I was full of ignorant bliss like my freinds on the left.

Our pals on the left are so full of hate and rage these days. I thought they were supposed to be the lovingsensitive ones....ya know who thought we could end the cold war by calling 1-800-flowers.

Perhaps its time for you lefties to do a big group hug to help with this anger you have. Maybe play some Barry Manilow while painting a landscape of a flock of birds soaring high over the redwood forest.

Once you do that it will help you with the reality check that Dems will lost 40+ seats i nthe House and no less than 7 senate seats.

Oh that Obama on the ballot wil hurt Dems, not help them....see VA, NJ, MA.

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Field Marshal:

Remember in 1994 when the Reps won 54 seats? Well this same generic ballot by Gallup had Dems up by 1 point a few weeks before the election.

And also remember that the Dem party had zero ideas in 2006 when they took back both the house and senate. People dont vote on ideas. They vote based on the person currently occupying the seat. And those seats are currently occupied by Dems and they dont like at all what those dems are doing in those seats.

I predict 6 seats in the senate with 30-35 seats in the house.

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Farleftandproud:

If the Democrats can't unite and pass a health care bill after the horror stories, the high costs, and the months of being attacked by right wing idiots. YOu got Stupak from the right and Kucinich from the left, the Dems really deserve to be out of power for a long time. Obama has tried as well as anyone could, but if they can't deliver this to the American people than it is time for a new direction in our political system. I think much of this indecivivness and poor communication the Dems have delivered will steer many younger people in the conservative direction, simply because the Republicans are more grounded and know what they want. I wonder every day why the Democrats can't come together and can't unite, and can't read the writing on the wall that they could lose strong support for years if health care isn't passed. It is really frightening.

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Farleftandproud:

I think 6 seats is about right in the Senate this year, but the house, I predict some party changes on both sides. I think the GOP will pick up about 25 seats. With a strong health care bill, I predict a loss of 4 Democratic senate seats and only 16 in the house.

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williame123:

djneedle83:

"The reality is the Democrats are only going to lose 5 senate seats at the most and 20-25 congressional seats. Then when Obama is on the ticket again 2012 the Democrats take back some of those seats."

This is the most realistic analysis I have seen so far. 1994 was a unique year in many ways and those years don't come around that often. Obama is much stronger electorally than Clinton was if you factor in the economuc environment, the number of unpopular things he has done and continues to try to do, his race and the dominance of the conservative media.

Delusional conservatives like Stillow are convinced that Democrats will lose a 1000 seats and that JFK was the reincarnation of Benjamin Disreali because he asked Americans to sacrifice and cut the top marginal tax rate from 90% to 70%. LOL.

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bigfoot9p6:

Demographics, demographics, demographics. The population of non-college-educated whites is dying off faster than they can be replaced. Simple as that, the republican base is old, feeble, and obsolete.

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Bigmike:

What, I can't have a college degree and be a part of the Republican base? Guess I was never good at following the rules.

Did the demographics change drastically in the last couple of years in VA, NJ, and MA?

Go ahead and over simplify. It helps our side.

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Stillow:

Ahhh yes, the demographics argument. Lefty after lefty on this site posted how the demographics of NJ made it impossible for a republican to win. Oooopsie!

Lefty after lefty on this site posted that demographics made it impossible for a republican to win a seat in MA held by T. Kennedy. Ooooopsie.

Lefyt after lefty posted on this site that VA was now a blue state because the demographcis in No. Va. just favored the Dems to much. Ooooopsie! McDonnel not only won the state, but won Fairfax county....you know the county where the demographics made it impossible for him to win!

You libs keep posting this stuff, yet the actual real world facts simply contradict all your claims!!

Oh, but here comes Obama with his overwhelmingly popular self with his awesome 48 percent approval rating to save the day!

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bigfoot9p6:

Hey, stillow, try to remember that the right wing savior GW had about half that approval rating, and that the uber-Messiah, reagan had an approval rating about 5 points below Obamas current approval rating. I know thats alot to keep in your funny little head, maybe dedicate one of your endangered brain cells each to these facts.

In reality, which conflicts with your "actual real world" Democrats have won the popular vote in 4/5 of the recent presidential elections.

Big Mike, I do not live in NJ or VA, and therefore dont care about election results for statewide office.

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BH:

@dj

"1994 was a unique year in many ways and those years don't come around that often."

You mean, like, after 16 years? 1994 is back, and at the current trajectory, it may be very, very tepid compared to a 75-100 seat swing. Am I predicting this kind of swing today? No. But would it surprise me given the trend line and the Dems. constant insistence to push an agenda the American public doesn't want during a mid-term election year? No, again. I think the current over/under as of today is 40-50 seats.

Serioulsy man, less coffee, more critical thinking - it'll do you good.

@Wil

Obama reaped the benefit of a inept, unpopular, inarticulate Republican president coupled by an equally inept Republican candidate who had a financial meltdown occur six weeks before an election - a meltdown, you'll remember, that highlighted two of McCain's central weaknessness - his inability to articulate a roadmap out of economic disaster and a general lack of knowledge about economics.

As we've seen over the last year, there's nothing "magic" about the President. Despite having an overwhelming majority in the House and Senate and being a very good orator, the stimulus is the only piece of major legistlation passed and public approval is way underwater on that disaster.

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BH:

"reagan had an approval rating about 5 points below Obamas current approval rating."

@bigfoot

So? Past poll results, particularly those of a President in a different party, are not indicative of future outcomes. Can the President turn it around? Sure. Will he do it by trying to ram policy through a House and Senate his party overwhelming controls? Good luck with that...

Simply put, if Indy's continue to trend 2 to 1 against the Dems and their policies you expect huge losses in 2010...and any election cycle for that matter.

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StatyPolly:

They're about to unveil the amnesty bill. Surely, that'll help to turn the public opinion on Dems.

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Farleftandproud:

I think the Democrats will lose the house and come very close in the senate if health care reform goes down the drain and they get absolutely no reform. Some of these conservadems in congress take their base for granted and try to please the big insurance companies and special interests in their districts. What they don't realize is they try to please independents and Republicans so much, they forget about the people who contribute to their campaigns. If the Democrats can't come together on something as important as health reform, how can they come together on anything else? THis indecisiveness and lack of cohesion is one of the things that turned me off to the Democrats in 1994. I honestly didn't know any better at the time, but I am not joking, but I was registered as an R for two years. I thought the Clinton administration in it's first two years was not very affective, and I still think they are.

I would say I went through a period in my life where my views did resemble that of Olympia Snowe or Scott Brown. I wasn't opposed to reform, but thought the lack of cohesion the Democrats had and their hypocrisy for putting health reform in 1993 and 94 as a hobby instead of a necessity was stupid. As I moved leftward, by biggest reason was high health care costs, and volunteered with an organization that paved the way for affordable insurance programs in VT and Mass. I had to learn from experience, why I emerged into a progressive.

The Democrats will fall into the same trap this year if they can't talk tough and start getting legistlation through.

I think it was Stillow who said that Sen. Nelson will be gone after 2012, and he was right. Bob Kerrey was fairly conservative, but he was more in line with a Senator Like Bob Casey. He knew if he stood for something, it would win more points for him than to stand for the special interests. I am sure Nelson will lose in the primary or likely be replaced by a real republican instead of Democrat in name only.

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Farleftandproud:

It is in the Dems hands to keep control of power in Washington. 1994 the GOP was far more respected than they are now, because Reagan and Bush 1 were viewed favorably by a majority of Americans. Clinton only won because Perot took a tremendous number of more conservative voters.

Obama won when the sitting president had extremely low approval, and his opponent picked someone as incompetent as Sarah Palin. Mccain looked like a real fool. We had the Iraq war which is viewed by most people as unfavorable, and Afghanistan which was viewed by many as a war we should have been more involved in. Obama so far, knock on wood has faired better on foreign policy his first year than Clinton.

You had Bosnia, Somalia and the Aristide operation in Haiti which ended up not successful. Obama has not gone hard on 2nd Ammendment issues, whereas Clinton implemented the assault weapons ban. Clinton persued gays in the military when it was unpopular, whereas Obama is pursuing it 16 years later and a majority of Americans now support it.

I think the Dems will lose seats in some conservative states in the senate, but can actually hold their house seats in most districts if these congressmen have gutts. If you are in a district that Obama won by 1-3 points, it is best to support the health care plan. That group applies to about 7 congress members who voted no the first time around in the house bill.

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BH:

"I think the Democrats will lose the house and come very close in the senate if health care reform goes down the drain and they get absolutely no reform."

@FL&P

I can appreciate the trap the Dems. have laid for themselves and have fallen into. On one hand, you pass this unpopular HC monster and you ensure that R's and I's come out against you in droves this November. On the other, you don't pass it and further anger your base and they threaten to remove you in the primary and stay home in the general. So here's the fundamental question from a purely political mindset: Do you want to face the voters this year with an unenthusiastic base or a really polarized electorate that ensures you lose Indies.

Personally, I think passing the bill is worse for the Dems. because it slaps the same "go it alone, cowboy" mentality (only it's the liberal lable this time around) that was so effective against the R's in '06. Only this time, should HC pass, not only do the R's really hate you, the I's really hate you as well. And I don't care what poll you throw up if I's are 2-to-1 against you, the electorate is not overwhelming D and even in Mass. it isn't enough to carry you over the finish line. In 2008, D's didn't even comprise 40% of the national electorate. So if Indy's continue to trend away, and they will should HC pass, it's game over.

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williame123:

StatyPolly:

"They're about to unveil the amnesty bill. Surely, that'll help to turn the public opinion on Dems."

Believe it or not immigration is not a good issue for Republicans either. It tends to divide Repubs as much as Dems and tends to hurt Repubs more electorally, especially in presidential years.

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Stillow:

A porblem the liberal base is going to have is that they do not like the senate version...and that is the bill that will become law. Reconciliation is and always has been a bluff. If Pelosi can somehow convince House Dems to pass the senate bill, O will sign tha tinto law and that is what we will get.

That would really tick off everyone at the Dems...The rights and the Indy's would come out and vote against Dems....but the liberal base would stay home in disgust at passing the senate version and not the more liberal House bill with the public option, etc.

The senate version if very unpopular with the liberal base, the center and the right. Passing that bill and failing to do reconciliation would be the worst case scenario for Dems in 2010 and 2012. The sneate version would not survive a repeal effort.

There is no doubt about it that the Dems have put themselves in a very deep hole with no ladder in sight.

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Farleftandproud:

The progressive base want reform and passing a health care package will reinvigorate them. I am a progressive and I don't mind if the president doesn't sign the perfect bill. Some progressives will stay home, and many of them want their cake and eat it to, but I try to be practical. Of course I agree with Bernie Sanders and Kucinich on 95 percent of the issues, but I know that progressives are a minority in the US, and Obama has worked so hard to find a middle ground, I think by the 2010 election the progressives will see that. The other thing that we will learn is what to look for in nominating candidates,

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Farleftandproud:

The progressive base want reform and passing a health care package will reinvigorate them. I am a progressive and I don't mind if the president doesn't sign the perfect bill. Some progressives will stay home, and many of them want their cake and eat it to, but I try to be practical. Of course I agree with Bernie Sanders and Kucinich on 95 percent of the issues, but I know that progressives are a minority in the US, and Obama has worked so hard to find a middle ground, I think by the 2010 election the progressives will see that. The other thing that we will learn is what to look for in nominating candidates,

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Farleftandproud:

The progressive base want reform and passing a health care package will reinvigorate them. I am a progressive and I don't mind if the president doesn't sign the perfect bill. Some progressives will stay home, and many of them want their cake and eat it to, but I try to be practical. Of course I agree with Bernie Sanders and Kucinich on 95 percent of the issues, but I know that progressives are a minority in the US, and Obama has worked so hard to find a middle ground, I think by the 2010 election the progressives will see that. The other thing that we will learn is what to look for in nominating candidates,

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Stillow:

It probably won't matter anyway. I think pelosi is still about 15-20 votes shy of passing the senate bill. Its the liberals like kucinich who already says he is a NO vote on the senate bill. I don't think she can ge thte liberals to go along with the senate bill. I'm sure her and O will throw around some more bribes, but can she make up the 15 or 20 votes deficit? Probably not.

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Farleftandproud:

All I can say our existing overspending of our health care system can not survive withot bankrupting the Country. Without reform America will sink into greater debt and poverty of biblical proportions. Doing nothing is not an option. If the voters think it isn't a good option than we'll lose some seats in the house. I am certain that if you give it time, people will see a difference made in their premiums, and this reform will be percieved as historic.

Everyone can speculate as to how many seats the Democrats will lose, but all i know is we are on the brink of history.

Winston Churchill in Great Britain was a victorious hero and won the war against Germany, yet in his case, was voted out because he didn't have a good enough recovery plan for implementing a better health care system. LBJ lost some seats in the senate and house in 1966 after passing Medicare which was considered socialist at the time, but in the long run it has worked well, and Democrats benefitted tremendously in future elections.

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Stillow:

Unfortunately g'ment is the reason prices have gone up. You remove g'ment fro mthe equation, you solve the problem. HC is no different than any other item, the free market will find balance, i tcannot dothat now cus g'ment invovlemnt and g'ment run program like medicare keep screwing the whole thing up.

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BH:

@stillow

And don't forget legal costs that drive up the bottom line - for every one case that goes to trial another 20 are settled at the consumer's expense, all in order to control outrageous settlement costs.

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BH:

"The progressive base want reform and passing a health care package will reinvigorate them."

Yeah, but sometimes speaking "truth to power" just ends up costing us all a lot more money - with little benefit in return.

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