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US: Generic Ballot (Gallup, Rasmussen 4/12-18)

Topics: poll

National

Gallup
4/12-18/10; 1,600 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Republicam, 43% Democrat (chart)


Rasmussen
4/12-18/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Republican, 36% Democrat (chart)

 

Comments
Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

Wow, isn't this the first time the GOP maintained the generic ballot lead in Gallup for two weeks in a row?

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CUWriter:

Three point GOP lead with RVs is gigantic. Would be more like 5-6 with LVs. A six point lead one election day for the GOP would translate into something like a 60 seat swing in the House. Dems are fortunate election day is not around the corner.

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Farleftandproud:

The Democrats are saving their Ammo for the summer with their campaign ads. They haven had their chance to make closing arguments.

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Farleftandproud:

For those of you who are Democrats out there, make sure you use Rasmussen's polling to get out your base to vote. The time is now, and the message they are sending is that the same people who voted for Obama are not as likely to vote in November.

If Rasmussen's polling techniques start helping out progressives, they may start their polling closer to election day.

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CUWriter:

Hey Farleft, I know you're a fired up college kid who thinks what he says on a non-partisan website and making a few phone calls is going to change the world... but can we stick to objective analyses of races and polls please?

The generic ballot is bad news for Democrats in Washington. There are no two ways about it and the trend has held steady for awhile now. Same with Obama's approval. It's been stuck at around 47/47 or something like that for months. The nation is highly polarized once again, surprise, surprise, and the GOP base is fired up. But what the Texas poll and some others out there has made clear is that the indies are more irate at incumbents in general than anything else. A state that went 10 points for McCain is not fully behind Perry despite the Texas economy actually doing OK? Obviously many statehouses and governor's mansions are going to flip from the incumbent to challenger regardless of affiliation. However since the Dems control so much of Washington, the only option for angry indies is to vote for the GOP. What remains to be seen is how big the gains are and what the heck Republicans do once they regain some modicum of power. Will they return to Bushism or will they go another direction?

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Aaron_in_TX:

"despite the Texas economy actually doing OK?"

It's actually doing slightly worse than expected. I don't consider 8.2% unemployment particuarly good, especially when New York is at 8.6% and Maine is also 8.2%. Some states are doing markedly better, like MN or CO.

The housing crisis was not that big of a deal here like it was in FL, NV, CA, NC, etc... so that's helped, but all the bragging leaves out the serious problems we have, particularly low rankings when it comes to uninsured, poverty, and education.

"The nation is highly polarized once again, surprise, surprise"

When was it not? About an 18-month period following September 11, I guess.

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jamesia:

The average is within the MOE ...

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Aaron_in_TX:

If not for the high unemployment in 10 states, the U.S. rate would be well under 10%. CA, FL, and MI are the ones really dragging it down. Those 3 states are 20% of the population and they have an average 13% unemployment rate. It would probably go under 9% if just those 3 improved.

I don't know why there hasn't been a more targeted response to unemployment.

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Aaron_in_TX:

The average unemployoment rate of the other 47 states is 8.62.

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Mark Ang:

Contrast Aaron In TX's ability to make coherent points with FL&P's ridiculous rantings. CUWriter, you hit the nail in the head.

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Farleftandproud:

I am flattered someone thinks I am a college kid. I wish I was.

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Farleftandproud:

THere are a lot of if's and of course conservatives hope it goes their way and our unemployment is still 9.7 percent. If the unemployment rate goes below 9 percent by Sept. I am sure that the polls, even Rasmussen will show a Democratic bump. Besides, Republicans at the moment are the most eager to vote when they are polled because they are the most fired up. I am sure as elections come closer Democrats will be just as fired up, and as for Independents, they will be more fired up too. The GOP will do better with Indies, but if the GOP only gets 5-10 percent more from Indies, Dems on a National level will not lose Congress.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

He said "OK", and not "it's freaking amazing! It's the best. ever!" which is curiously the same tone the leftwing denialists have been saying here about the national economy and the Dems non-existent chances in Texas. And TX economy IS OK. There are states that started this recession far worse, far broke, far earlier than Texas. These states are still in that recession. So I'm laughing just a bit on how one could exclude 20% of the population like Aaron_in_TX did to make it look like Obama's economy really isn't that bad. In fact, it's a tad better than Texas! NEWSFLASH! The 50 states INCLUDE CALIFORNIA, FLORIDA, AND MICHIGAN. Unless you count like Obama, then there's 10 more states missing.

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Farleftandproud:

Dems will have their biggest regional problems in Nevada and Indiana and some conservative parts in the south, but I also believe if the economy turns around they will keep more seats than anticipated in much of the county.

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Field Marshal:

FL&P,

I wouldn't be so flattered that they think you are a college kid. If they saw you in person without you opening you mouth, then you could take it as flattery. Otherwise, its an affront.

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jamesia:

I think the auto bailout was fairly targeted toward MI. CA & FL economies will rebound easily on their own. Their populations are growing & they're year-round tourism destinations.

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jamesia:

There does need to be more targeted spending in those states, but the political will isn't there anymore.

The GOP response would be a tax cut, but I'm not sure that a tax cut in MI will help things. Their problems are far beyond taxes.

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Kevin Viveiros:

I wish we could get some specific House race polls. I'd like to see how some of the swing districts are looking including the district I reside in, Wi-08, Steve Kagens(D) seat. I think a poll in some of these districts will shed more light on whether or not the Republicans can get the House back.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

jamesia:
I think the auto bailout was fairly targeted toward MI. CA & FL economies will rebound easily on their own. Their populations are growing & they're year-round tourism destinations.

===

You're kidding right? CA & FL's economy doesn't depend on tourism, that industry is a small piece of these states' economies. 44 states have recorded an even higher unemployment rate than last year. 12 states have double-digit unemployment rates.

Oh yea, of course, if we can just take care of those 3 states, everything will be great again! Screw the other 47!

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Farleftandproud:

I am right near one of those districts that is heavily Republican in rural upstate, NY and Rep Murphy is still vulnerable in 2010, yet he won a special election after Gillibrand's appointment. Even though there are a lot of older people in this district and farmers, I am convinced there is strong enough turnout for him to keep the seat. The Public option was quite popular in this district because it was good for single people who don't recieve health benefits through their employers. You've got lots of businesses in Saratoga Springs for instance who employ people seasonly and work other jobs in the off season. After the public option was off the table, Murphy had his doubts about supporting the bill, even though something was better than nothing, and he supported it.

I think the Dems who will be most likely to lose by November are ones like Teague from NM who is from a district where 25 percent of it's residents are uninsured, and lots of poverty there. It won't surprise me to see a primary challenger.

I think the Reps who have the guts, and want to also stand up against Wall Street and catch the fradulant business community in their act. Financial reform of large corporations, not small ones as much, will big popular.

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Farleftandproud:

For those of you from the right who think I am radical, please, don't even go there when you have pros making millions like Rush Limbaugh who today, said the volcanoes in Iceland were caused by Obama's health reform. Maybe he thinks it is entertainment, but what evidence could he possibly have to back that up?

A former US Rep, Tom Tancredo tells people that Obama should go back to Kenya and accuses Michelle Obama out of all people of saying "Obama was born in Kenya". (learn more on MSNBC TOnight on the Ed SHow. You can see Tancredo's statement yourself on U Tube. I didn't say it, he did.

Michelle Bachman tells people to not fill out the census because she thinks her district has had declining population, (Probably because she is their represenative in congress).

My ideas may be considered by some to be radical, but if I am asked what I meant by my statements, I'll clarify it in a way that doesn't sound like a madman.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

learn more on MSNBC TOnight on the Ed SHow

===

And there goes your credibility. Obviously you're not a radical. You're a party hack, a sycophant, nothing more.

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Farleftandproud:

Westwood can call me all the names to me he or she wants to, but soundbites and statements that politicians or people like Limbaugh is out there in public domain. If Hannity points out something that Pelosi said, I don't care one bit if anyone points it out.

The bottom line is I didn't make that stuff up about Limbaugh and Tancredo, and I am certain that a lot more sources will air that other than MSNBC.

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Stillow:

I just hope the island won't tip over......

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I think the people here who favor the GOP are deluding themselves that the "likely voter" mode in November will parallel previous off-year elections. My bet is that the electorate will look a lot like the 2006 and 2008 elections, where the "likely voter" model was actually far more Democratic-party inclined than "experts" had anticipated. The women turned out, the young people turned out, the minorities turned out and the Christian right voted in far fewer numbers than they did in 2002 and 2004.

I see little motivation from that high-profile group (religious right) and they're not at all represented in the tea party people who vote all the time anyway.

In 2008 some 131 million Americans voted and people said it was the presidential election that drove women, young people and minorities to the polls. That's true, but in 2006 the number was about 86 million, yet the Democrats also won a resounding victory.

If the 2010 number is >100 million, the GOP gains will be minimum. The reporting going on now is actually firing up the core Democratic constituencies while showing no increase in GOP turnout among the fundamentalist religious right -- the cornerstone swing turnout vote for the Republican Party. Will tea party "no-tax," "small government," and "second amendment" people come out and vote. Certainly. But the little-known secret is that they always do. With all of them voting in 2004, 2006 and 2008, the only reason Bush won in 2004 was that the Karl Rove machine got the religious right to vote in massive numbers -- and Bush barely won and GOP Congressional candidates largely lost. That constituency is not energized at all right now and they weren't in 2006 and 2008.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

"Religious right". For the Democrats, everyday is always November 2008. Their eternal summer of love. The "religious right" is gonna turn out in massive numbers, but not under that label or with the same agenda. Nope, you have to be deaf, dumb and blind not to see that happening.

Dems won in 2006 and 2008 by large margins among independents. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. Big time. It's not just me who's saying this, it's polling analysts as well. Since the Dems like nelcon1551 are going the full retard route in winning (how else to explain the shrill and hateful attacks on anyone who disagrees with you as racist? Or making up "racist" incidents? Or flat-out lying by the president about his Obamacare? ) nothing but the core libtard base. A base, not coincidentally, that happen to have extremely low turnout, unless they're voting for Obama.* The Dems are doing everything they possibly can to drive non-partisans and independents away. I'm gobsmacked how anyone would even question why this isn't working out for them.

*Obama btw, isn't that popular anymore, definitely more unpopular than in 2008. That has an impact on how much that drives the intensity on the other side, and how much it drives down intensity on the Dem side.

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Farleftandproud:

Instead of tearing the political party we don't like apart and insulting Obama constantly or whoever it is who is called unAmerican lets talk about people of the opposition party we at least have some respect for. I'll give some examples.

Sen Corker for one and Senator Judd Gregg and Kaye Bailey Huchinson frequently come on MSNBC and give their side of the issues. They are respectful and can back up their opinions with concrete information. Do I agree with them? Absolutely not but they are civil and can demonstrate that they are not part of the fringe.

What bothers me is when I see people Like Palin, Tancredo and Michelle Bachman aligning themselves with angry mobs of right wingers, and not all these rallies are Tea Parties. They allow people in the crowd to shout out hateful and racist remarks, and they go along with it.

It isn't as much the views of the Republican party that bother me, it is when some mainstream politicians align themselves with organizations an groups that clearly have a "hate" agenda. I am not saying they are all racist, but there are other kinds of hate including hating liberals or hating conservatives.

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Farleftandproud:

I looked back to Dec 2008 and Rasmussen had the Dems up only by 2 or 3 in Nov 08 when the DEms won tons of seats and other polls had the Dems up by as much as 13. I am not saying that there isn't a trend going the GOP's way. I hope if things are going well for them it is the rational levelheaded Republicans doing it for them and not the crazy fringe, however this trend has less to do with issues and more to do with the fact that that Americans tend to be pessimistic and the opposition party wins big usually when they are out of power. The GOP is much better at their spin than the Democrats are. They know how to play hardball and are masters of the best attack ads. I wish Dems could be as clever.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

Farleftandproud:
I looked back to Dec 2008 and Rasmussen had the Dems up only by 2 or 3 in Nov 08 when the DEms won tons of seats and other polls had the Dems up by as much as 13.
===

Pls. don't lie. Rasmussen had the Dems up by 7 the week before the Nov. 2008 election (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html).

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Farleftandproud:

Check it out when you first open up this web site. Rasmussen had the Dems up by 3 right after the election and other pollsters had the Dem preferences for 2010 as much as 12-15 points.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Oh yea, of course, if we can just take care of those 3 states, everything will be great again! Screw the other 47!"

I wasn't saying that. I was saying that the recession is far worse in 10 states than it is in the other 40, and unemployment would be significantly lower if not for 3 states. Is that not fairly self-evident?

That point was not meant to be partisan.

But if our economy should be classified as "OK," then so should New York's and Maine's, whose state governments are liberal leaning, whereas ours is conservative leaning. It annoys me when people point to TX as an example of how great a state economy can be under conservative governance. The ideology of a state seems not to have an impact on which states are doing well and which are not. The top 10 states for unemployment include 3 red, 3 blue, and 4 swing states.

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Aaron_in_TX:

I agree with Kevin above that it's hard to tell what's going on without specific house district polls.

I'm not convinced of the CW that there's a hidden 5 point disadvantage for dems in generic polling (Dems +5 = Dems +0). That may have been the case when there were more "Reagan democrats." Those people are dying off and less of a factor. I take these generic ballot tests at face value.

It sounds a lot to me like republicans in 2008 who repeatedly talked about the Wilder effect, which turned out to only exist in certain states that democrats were unlikely to win.

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Bigmike:

I for one am glad to be able to read some of the liberal posts on this site. Lord knows you can't figure out their positions using logic or common sense. I for one need lots of help.

Funny that its the conservatives who are accused of being driven by hate. Which lib was it on here that had a special hate for those who opposed gay marriage? I don't want to put words in anyones mouth, but there was more hate there than I have ever seen in politics.

Guess I don't watch much TV. Outside of football, Jack Bauer, and an occasional movie I have better things to do. What is an "Ed Show?"

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Bigmike might like to read "liberal posts." Well I like to read real news, and today's real news that the RNC is officially dumping Gov. Crist in Florida tells me that there will be a huge split in the Republican Party this fall and many "sure thing" candidates will go down in flames.

When a formal Party organization like the RNC decides to screw a long-term popular sitting Governor of a large state because a handful (18% to be exact) of right wing nuts don't like his rational policies, then the Republican Party can no longer be considered a mainstream American political party. It is now a captive faction of a small minority of people, who are mostly middle-aged white men -- one of the smallest voting constituency among demographic groups.

True, they are vocal and contribute money. But their numbers are tiny when you consider general election voting populations.

Decisions like this one (turning their back on a sitting popular governor) are called -- rightfully so -- political suicide.

I have no doubt that many of the posters here will cheer the fact that mainstream Republicans are kicking out Charlie Crist for having espoused rational policies, but that also says that the polls their cheering today will turn roundly against them during the summer and fall when the real American people see what a fringe-based Republican Party really stands for.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"But their numbers are tiny when you consider general election voting populations."

I don't know.... Whites over 45 made up 43% of the electorate. The exit polls don't break up age, race, and sex, only 2 of the 3. But I'll guess somewhat less than half of white voters over 45 are men, roughly 19% of the electorate, a significant part. What's important to note is that group doesn't support democrats.

Obama lost white men 57-41, and whites over 45, 57-41, so middle aged and older white men must have supported him by 37-41%. That's about normal. Obama's overall white numbers were bolstered by the youth and overall men numbers bolstered by minorities.

A better question is, can Obama do much worse among older white males? He didn't pick up many more of them than any democrat has since 1988. They've had a white person problem since 1980.

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Niikeb:

Un employment will not drop, since these numbers are being seasonally adjusted, they would be a lot higher then they are now. Seasonally adjusted numbers are "returned" at the years end. So they assumed an extra 200k jobs in Feb (literally) so later in the year they will assume 200k less to even out. That's why the rate has not changed one bit in 3 months. Also you need to produce 100k jobs a month for the rate to drop with new people entering the job market. Not to mention with discouraged workers (17% real rate employment) returning to the job market would boost numbers higher. Trust me, if the rate goes down someone is fudging the books even if job gains are high. The unemployment rate will be high this November. Good luck in 2012.

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Field Marshal:

"I have no doubt that many of the posters here will cheer the fact that mainstream Republicans are kicking out Charlie Crist for having espoused rational policies, but that also says that the polls their cheering today will turn roundly against them during the summer and fall when the real American people see what a fringe-based Republican Party really stands for."

Rational policies? You mean like overspending and siding with the teachers unions of the schoolchildren. They may be rational to a liberal but not to a conservative.

And the Dems have their own problem with the far-left. Think Blanche Lincoln.

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GARY WAGNER:

The RNC is finally getting the message that the party needs to purge out the RINOs in the primaries. The base doesn't want republicans acting like democrats. If they wanted democrats, they would vote for them - not pseudo-democrats like Christ. Christ cut himself off at the knees when he thought that Obama's popularity of a year ago was going to last through this election. He made a very bad political decision and he has to pay for it.

Now that both Gallup and Rasmussen put the republicans at 46% on the generic ballot, it is interesting to see the liberals here still try to dismiss these polls and these trends as meaningless.

Yes, there is still 6 months until the election. And, yes the democrats have hundreds of billions of dollars of stimulus money available for them to buy votes so this election is not a done deal by a long shot. But the likelihood of the democrats keeping the house is growing dimmer every day.

They not only didn't receive a bump from the healthcare bill like the liberal pundits all said they would, they have lost ground since they passed that monstrosity.

They aren't going to get any bump from passing a financial reform bill because no one has any credibility that they can fix anything. The cap and trade bill is poisonous and would hurt them if they start talking about it before the election. And, if they fulfill their promise to the AMA and pass the doc fix bill - they will show what a scam the numbers in the healthcare bill were.

There is a lot more that can go wrong for democrats before the election than can go right. No one thinks we are going to miraculously pull out of the recession and bring unemployment below 8% before November. Even if that miracle happened, the democrats would still get clobbered because people are fed up with Washington and the democrats own Washington.

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GARY WAGNER:

If you want to see breakdowns by house seat, you can see them at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html.

There, you'll see that 22 democrat seats have already been identified as likely republican pickups but only 2 identified as likely democrat pickups. That is a net loss of 20 seats right there.

Then, there are 33 democrat seats considered toss-ups but only 1 republican seat that is a tossup. With the current generic ballot, the republicans will pick up at least half of those seats - for another 16 solid seat pickups and as many as 33 if they sweep all of them.

Then you have 50 democrat seats that are only leaning democrat and just 2 republican seats that are leaning democrat. The GOP is bound to pick up at least 10 to 15 of these.

So that puts the likely republican pickup in the 45 seat range on the low end and up to 105 seats if they sweep all the close elections.

This is all before the primaries have chosen candidates for November. I think you'll see things start swinging even more toward the republicans after the primaries.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

nelcon1551:
When a formal Party organization like the RNC decides to screw a long-term popular sitting Governor

===

LMAO! You know when the president is a senator that hasn't completed a full-term, someone like Crist who isn't even finished his first can seem to look like "long-term". And Crist isn't popular, he's approval rating is low, like any other state with an enormous unemployment rate.

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jamesia:

Not that it matters to this specific poll, but Crist has a net positive favorability.

/polls/fl/fav-crist.html

He's still immensely popular over the total electorate. The Tea Party have shattered a politician with wide ranging appeal, and will replace him with Rubio - someone only conservatives will like. That's the truth of the matter. He'd have been a tough 2012 challenger for Obama.

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Like I thought. The responses to my post were totally predictable. As for the polls, and the forecasts, they change on a dime.

Show me the polls in October and then we can have a discussion. I'm sure you'll see a GOP pickup in the house of about 8-15 seats, maximum, because the American people will totally reject the fringe tea party element taking over the Republican Party.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

nelcon1551:
Like I thought. The responses to my post were totally predictable. As for the polls, and the forecasts, they change on a dime.

Show me the polls in October and then we can have a discussion. I'm sure you'll see a GOP pickup in the house of about 8-15 seats, maximum, because the American people will totally reject the fringe tea party element taking over the Republican Party.
===

You're funny. We don't have October polls. If you keep it shut until then, then we'll talk. Otherwise, we're commenting on the NUMERICAL EVIDENCE WE HAVE TODAY. So you can keep creating a fascinating scenarios completely unsupported by anything fact-based as much as you want. If the Dems recover, then you have a point, but it's getting worse. Everything we know so far that the bottom has yet to fall out for the Democrats.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"/polls/us/10-us-house-genballot.html"

"but it's getting worse."

Well, we can compare these two pollsters.

According to Rasmussen it's been the same throughout 2010. Gallup shows slight movement toward republicans from February, but basically the same margin as Dec 2009. So it's bad but does not appear to be getting much worse.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Oops nevermind. I didn't filter it right for Gallup. It is getting worse according to them.

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Lt. Cmdr. Walrus:

@GARY WAGNER

"The RNC is finally getting the message that the party needs to purge out the RINOs in the primaries. The base doesn't want republicans acting like democrats. If they wanted democrats, they would vote for them - not pseudo-democrats like Christ."

And therein lies the problem-the idea that anyone outside a very rigid dogma must be purged. This idea will come back to bite Reps-probably not this year simply due to trends and the fact that the Dem majority can't realistically get much bigger than it is now, but eventually. If you freeze out everyone who is willing to budge on a lot of issues (Crist, Bennett, Romney who will have this problem in 2012), you're severely limiting your appeal in the general election.

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