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US: Generic Ballot (Gallup, Rasmussen 7/5-11)

Topics: Generic House Vote , Poll

National

Gallup
7/5-11/10; 1,600 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
47% Democrat, 46% Republican (chart)


Rasmussen
7/5-11/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
44% Republican, 38% Democrat (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

I think Democracy Corps is the worst poll I have seen, because it overpolled Republicans and Independents. Rasmussen is at least a conservative pollster and they do deal with likely voters.

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Farleftandproud:

Pollsters are supposed to be scientific, but in reality are more like a thinktank of focus group. When a left-leaning poll can't seem to phrase questions a little better or be a little bit more optimistic that not just likely voters will turnout, I don't think they are a good pollster.

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VermontWisdom:

Everyone seems to be focusing on the 6 point gap between Republicans and Democrats in the Rasmussen poll. What we should be focusing on is the 38% figure that Rasmussen claims to be the likely Democratic vote in November. Do even the most ardent Republican supporters think that the total democratic vote nationwide for the House of Reresentaives will be 38%? It is absurd. There is no way that the Democratic total will be less than 48%, even in a Republican landslide. The Rasmussen poll is useless for those of us trying to figure out what is really going on with the electorate.

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melvin:

The White house don't want to see the Dem's win back the House"I have been saying this all alone'Obama do not like Pelosi.Obama wants to take the same path Clinton took back in 1994,but i got news for Obama,if the GOP takes back the House they is going to shut down this Govt,forcing Obama to cave in.Obama is weaker then Clinton,so am afraid he will cave in, because that's all he has been doing since he became President.

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Field Marshal:

LOL.

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SC Guy:

This is statistically unchanged from last week. The Republicans are still ahead amongst likely voters.

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Farleftandproud:

I am actually less worried about the GOP taking back the house now than I was in Early June. I think that more people are realizing that the GOP is the party of the big oil and all the corporate greed that has left our workers safety, lending practices with banks, and they are in bed with the energy lobbyists who do not want financial reform.

I know this will be a tough election and the GOP will have some big victories, but after seeing the arrogance of people like Barton apologizing to BP and John Kyl calling the unemployed lazy, it shows their arrogance. The quality of good jobs has decreased, and the underemployed aren't going to like these attitudes either.

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Farleftandproud:

Believe it or not, I am more likely to trust the Fox polls than I do Rasmussen. Opinion dynamics, has only slightly more Dems than Republicans, which may take into account leaners and there will be higher turnout of Republicans in 2010 than there was in 2006, however they don't determine who is a "Likely voter" and they give their statistics.

In fact when it comes to Obama's approval, he probably looks forward more to seeing a Fox poll these days than the Economist or Democracy Corp that are conducted by liberals. Go figure.

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Bigmike:

VermontWisdom:

"What we should be focusing on is the 38% figure that Rasmussen claims to be the likely Democratic vote in November. Do even the most ardent Republican supporters think that the total democratic vote nationwide for the House of Reresentaives will be 38%? It is absurd."

No more absurd than the 44% Ras is saying will vote for the GOP. Add 'em up and you only get 82%. That leaves 18% undecided and I am quite sure both parties will get some portion of that group. The question is how much they will get.

Farleftandproud

If the GOP is in bed with big oil the way you claim they are, what do you suppose will happen to gas prices in Sept, Oct, and early Nov. The oil companies will have to protect their GOP buddies, right?

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Farleftandproud:

Well, I am a firm believer in alternative energies and to really step up efforts to stop making us such slaves to coal, oil and filthy fuels that shorten people's lives and in many cases reward countries who hate us.

Gas prices have gone up and down for as long as I can remember, and they have been fairly reasonable this summer, compared to what they were back in 2007.

I hope the GOP fatcats will continue to party with BP and their other big oil buddies. If you are a conservative, they are doing more of a disservice to you, by apologizing to big oil and being in bed with them, than the damage they will do to Democrats.

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VermontWisdom:

Big Mike, I agree with you about the low Republican number, but it is not as out of line as the Democratic %. For historical reference in 1994 the Republicans won 48% of all House votes, the Democrats 44%. 8% went to other parties. This 4% split led to a 51 seat swing to the Republicans. It was a 5% turnaround for both parties from 1992. So it seems that anything around a 4% difference will be a landslide. What Ras would have us believe is that Republicans are on the verge of winning over 100 seats. This may be great for cheerleading. I just want to know what really is going on now, and how things are trending.

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TeaPartyRules:

Melvin
With all of your political savy I think you should be running for SC senate on the dem ticket.

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Field Marshal:

LOL again....

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GoTo123:

Nah, you guys are wrong, the worst pollster out there is Strategic Vision LLC. Nate Silver did some math a couple of months ago and concluded that they were cooking up fraudulent results. Of course it doesn't take much wishful thinking to see this. I mean, heck there website (http://www.strategicvision.biz/) alone screams fraud (poor coding, lots of broken links, and the creepy looking design). Not to mention that the address they listed is invalid and the fact that there name is ripped off of another polling firm known as Strategic Vision. It's pretty self evident that these guys are a bunch of frauds. Hopefully they'll go the same way that Research2000 went.

Melvin: What the hell are you talking about? Honestly, I don't think I've ever heard anything like that before.

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GoTo123:

Guys, I think you all are over-thinking how the results will end up in November. The people who are going to decide who gets control of Congress are the wishy-washy Independents. Obviously the Republicans are almost always going to vote for the Republican candidate and the Democrats are always going to vote for the Democratic candidate; it isn't going to be any different for this election.

Anyways, the economy is going to be the key to how the elections turn out. If the economy goes into a double dipping recession then the Democrats will suffer a 1994 style defeat. However, if the economy accelerates in recovery, Democrats will only shed a few seats (Even the most die hard liberal can't deny that they are going to lose a couple of seats that are currently Democratically controlled in Conservative areas of the country no matter how good the economy is.). And if the economy is like it is now in November then the Democrats will lose a significant number of seats, but most likely not enough to flip control of the House or Senate. While immigration and the war will have some effect on voters, both of these will be pretty minuscule compared to employment and the economy.

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Farleftandproud:

The economy already is picking up. I am in sales and have made way more money this year than last. I think if it wasn't for our government helping out some big areas like the Auto industry, the entire Rust belt would be in greater recession than they would have been had the government not stepped in.

I predict that we'll still be in recession by November and even a year from now we will, but I think the unemployment picture will be under 9 percent by election day and as for job creation according to the Gallup chart, since last August things have trended upward.

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Publius:

The Rasmussen numbers have been pretty level for the last few polls which suggests that the Democratic bleeding might be over.

I also want to see more polls that ask people about their member of Congress as opposed to a generic question. Some recent polls have shown that Congress as a whole is viewed very negatively, but when asked, more people support their own member of Congress. That's a key difference.

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Sean Murphy:

Farleft: No way unemployment is below 9% on election day. In fact you remember all those people who gave up in June? They probably will re-enter the workforce this month and be looking for jobs which will increase the unemployment rate.The Democrats have 3 more jobs reports before election day(July,August adn September). The numbers for October won't be released until November 5th.

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Bigmike:

VermontWisdom:

"I just want to know what really is going on now, and how things are trending."

As do we all. I think there are enough safe districts that the GOP will not get +100 in the house even if Ras is right on the money.

I was not sure, not too long ago, that the GOP would even take the house or Senate. But we are inside 4 months and the Dems have not made any real gains in some time. If they don't change that, and sooner rather than later, we conservatives will be pretty happy in Nov. The economy certainly won't help the Dems.

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