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US: Generic Ballot (Rasmussen 5/24-30)

Topics: Generic House Vote , National

Rasmussen
5/24-30/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
44% Republican, 37% Democrat (chart)

 

Comments
TeaPartyRules:

LOL

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Farleftandproud:

How will the tea party or semi-libertarian non-establishment candidates like Rand Paul or JD Heyworth and other tea party types going to fit in with the traditional conservatives like Trent Lott and Kaye Huchison as well as the moderate Romney/Scott Brown wing?

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Bob in SJ:

@TeaParty:

Such wit and insight.

Anyway, Rass is living in one universe, and just about everyone else is in another.

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djneedle83:

The tea party polling model gets you a Rand Paul lead of 25 points. I guess this model is being used for the entire nation and not just Kentucky.

This polling result is beyond absurd. If anyone thinks that Republicans will have a near 10 point lead on the generic ballot then your just plain ole stupid.

Come on Rass--- poll Connecticut again and give Linda Mchmahon a 10-15 point lead in your next poll. Even better poll 2012 Obama vs. Romney and give Mittens a double digit lead too.

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Speedo Bandit:

Okay, everybody rail against Rasmussen and his totally biased polling although he puts polls out all the time that don't favor Republicans.

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Speedo Bandit:

djneedle83,

You are going to be very disappointed when Rasmussen's polling data ends up being very accurate. Liberals hate Rasmussen for one reason and that reason is that he brings them bad news. Bad news that usually ends up meaning their guy is going to lose.

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obamalover:

@Speedo Bandit

"he puts polls out all the time that don't favor Republicans."

significantly less often than others though. You are truly deluded if you can't see this poll is biased, when every other shows the Dems and Repukes essentially tied. This poll is just plain silly.

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obamalover:

Lets compare Rass:
/polls/us/10-us-house-genballot.html?xml=/flashcharts/content/xml/10USHouseGenBallot.xml&choices=Republican,Democrat&phone=0&ivr=Rasmussen&internet=0&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=&trends=&lines=

And everyone else
/polls/us/10-us-house-genballot.html?xml=/flashcharts/content/xml/10USHouseGenBallot.xml&choices=Democrat,Republican&phone=&ivr=PPP (D)&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=&trends=&lines=

Both have the Repukes around 44% but the average of every other poll has the Dems 8% higher. It is a silly to have the Dems at 37% as Rass does.

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Speedo Bandit:

Obamlover,

Rasmussen polls likely voters. Why is that so hard to understand? Even Gallup has said on it's website that a close to even congressional ballot means big trouble for Democrats. Are you under the assumption that the Democrats are going to have a good year at the polls. If Rasmussen has the Democrats down going into November take it to the bank that they are in big trouble.

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Speedo Bandit:

By the way, you look ridiculous writing things likes Repuke.

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Danny Collins:

It strange that Rass did not make a call on the PA-12. Rass is the Fox News of polling.

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iVote:

Scott Rasmussen has books to sell and money to make. Is it really a surprise that he's constantly trying to drive the narrative in the Republican's favor? The guy's a joke.

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Speedo Bandit:

iVote,

I will be on here the morning after the elections to see what you think about his predictions then.

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iVote:

Just like I was on here the morning after PA-12. According to some on here, that was supposed to be the beginning of the end for the Dems. How'd that one turn out again?

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Farleftandproud:

PA 12 is a conservative district where Obama had a 38 percent approval rating on Rasmussen. Did the GOP win that race? No. The Democrat won by 8. That is why when Democrats know the going gets tough, the "tough get going". Campaigning in that district for a Democrat I have heard is not easy. That is why we have to campaign that way in all 50 states.

Why doesn't Rasmussen make it clear as to how many from each party and independents are polled? I think there are a lot of cutting corners that they do.

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iVote:

Just like I was on here the morning after PA-12. You guys were just so sure that it would be the beginning of the end for the Dems. So just keep on believing what Rasmussen (R) is feeding you.

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Speedo Bandit:

iVote,

Larry Sabato has the Dems losing 32 seats in the elections. PA-12 has a huge sway to the left and probably always will. Is Sabato too far right for you? He worked with Democrats for years.

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Danny Collins:

I just looked at Rassmussen site (I've never seen Scott Rassmussen on any network other than Fox News. And since we know they're running a right-wing campaign operation. I looked at his polls...they all read like republican talking points. For all you idiot right-wingers, it would be like if Keith Olbermann put out a poll with questions like:

Do you think that Obama offering a job to Democrat in PA to make room for a former republican to win a senate seat is anything comparable to president Bush's pick to head Homeland going to prison, or his Attorney General being removed from office for lying under oath?

Do you think that Louisiana should accept the results of the Oil Spill, since voted to allow deep-water drilling?

Do you trust the republicans to run the country, seeing during the worst economy collapse since 1982 under Ronald Reagan, they've done exactly one thing: Bail out the banks?

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Speedo Bandit:

Danny,

Comparing Rasmussen to Olbermann's crazy ass is laughable. The man predicted Obama's victory correctly and has Democrats ahead in polls all the time. Gallup and Rasmussen have the same approval rating for Obama just today. Keith aka Captain Insano would never predict a Republican winning.

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Danny Collins:

I noticed that Rassmussen did not make a call on PA-12. Now why would Scott ignore the one election with an actual seat on the line?

Okay, so repthugs win back 32 seats that Bush probably won in 2000 and 2004. Obama already got what he wanted out of the blue dog Democrats. I want Republicans to win the house and Senate back...Democrat always win when the republican actually have to do something other than tax cuts and start wars...which is why they'll use their to subpoena power to harass Obama officials as a diversion to their anti-American policies. Notice: Bush spent eight years "rebuilding" Iraq, and then he gave Iraqis guaranteed universal health care coverage in the status of forces agreement on his way out of office. All debt on the backs of the American people. A terrorist supporting state gets universal health care ahead of the American people. That's right wing have for you, as they scream "communist" at a President who actually wanted to spent American tax dollars on Americans.

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Danny Collins:

I noticed that Rassmussen did not make a call on PA-12. Now why would Scott ignore the one election with an actual seat on the line?

Okay, so repthugs win back 32 seats that Bush probably won in 2000 and 2004. Obama already got what he wanted out of the blue dog Democrats. I want Republicans to win the house and Senate back...Democrat always win when the republican actually have to do something other than tax cuts and start wars...which is why they'll use their to subpoena power to harass Obama officials as a diversion to their anti-American policies. Notice: Bush spent eight years "rebuilding" Iraq, and then he gave Iraqis guaranteed universal health care coverage in the status of forces agreement on his way out of office. All debt on the backs of the American people. A terrorist supporting state gets universal health care ahead of the American people. That's what the right wingers have for you, as they scream "communist" at a President who actually wanted to spend American tax dollars to help Americans.

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Speedo Bandit:

Danny,

I was giving you the benefit of the doubt until you starting saying Repthugs and ranted about Bush and Iraq and starting wars. You come across as a text book liberal.

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Danny Collins:

Speedo: You fool, all Keith Olbermann does is put clips of republicans/right wingers lying through their teeth and then makes fun of them. He spent the last year hammering Obama for acting as though his real enemies were the 66 million people that voted for him. He hammered Obama for actually endorsing a health care bill full of republican ideals. Republicans yell Nazi, and Mao at Obama to distract from the fact that it was Bush who governed like a tyrant. He lost the popular vote by 500,000, but governed like he'd won 80% of the vote (reconciliation, deem and pass, etc.).

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Speedo Bandit:

Danny,

You are right Olbermann is a completely rational guy. I'm glad you set me straight that he isn't completely out of his mind with rage and probably has bodies buried under his porch. Why do I have the feeling that you are a guy who is way too old to be saying Repthug, you have a ponytail, wear wire rimmed glasses , you wear petrulli oil, and think you are smarter than everyone else you ever talk to.

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Speedo Bandit:

Oh, and news flash the Repthugs haven't been in power for a while now. So, maybe guys like you and Olbermann should actually look at yourselves in the mirror every once in a while instead of obsessing over Glenn Beck, Rush, Bush, or Sarah Palin. Liberalism is failure everywhere it is put in place and will continue to be a failure.

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tjampel:

While you guys are arguing about Ras and Keith someone ought to point out that this result represents a tightening in Ras' Generic by one point since last week, when Repubs were up by 8.

They still are using a turnout model that's brutal for Dems, based on enthusiasm surveys and assumptions about younger and some minority voters.

It's really too bad Ras chose to poll lots of races many months away rather than the PA special House election, for example. That would have given us a chance to look at this model in action. I guess they'd say (along with conservatives here) that it would have been difficult to poll that election because Republican turnout models were too difficult to predict, given a walkover for Toomey, and a hotly contested statewide Dem contest. Still I'd be curious to see what results their likely voter model would have yielded.

Anyway, if Ras is completely correct and the generic ballot remains the R +7 until Nov (it usually doesn't change much over the last 6 months) expect a 50+ seat gain for Repubs in the House and 7-8 in the Senate. Personally I wouldn't bet on that.

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seg:

Just the other day I complimented posters on the fact that there was a serious exchange of information with a minimum of insults in both directions.

This is the worst exchange I have seen to date. Even some of those who are generally more civil are far below their usual standards.

Why do you bother with this? What is your objective in posting here? Ugly name calling convinces others only that you probably look the same coming and going. It certainly does not win friends or influence others to change their minds on the issues.

Rasmussen: It is interesting to see anger towards Rasmussen rising to a fever pitch.
Rasmussen has different results because he makes different assumptions. When he wasn't on his latest toot, even Nate Silver admitted that Rasmussen had a good (not perfect) record to-date, at least as good as almost anyone else over the last 12 years.

Rasmussen is guessing that likely voters will come predominately from groups who favor Republicans. He may be influenced by his conservative views. It would be amazing if he were not. Certainly other pollsters reflect their liberal views, and they will put their thumb on the scales when deciding who is likely to vote.

The vote will be what it is, regardless of any pollster's predictions. The importance of pollster predictions prior to the election is debateable. Republicans have consistently greatly over-performed off-year election polls, sometimes as much as 20%.

More importantly: The outcome will not bring Nirvana for either side, whether Republicans kick butt or whimp out. That is because Obama has taken severe problems left over from Bush and made each one much worse. Oddly, doubling down on debt has not solved the problems of indebtedness. Doubling down on the war in Afganistan has solved nothing there. The health care bill increasingly looks to be much, much worse than useless for controlling costs.

Obama's spending has removed every lever we have to deal with the approaching Armeggedon of sovereign defaults. Tell me what either Republicans or Democrats will do when sovereign defaults in Europe lead to defaults in G.B., Japan, and the U.S.? We cannot tax-cut our way out of this and we have long since passed the limits of beneficial Keynesian spending.

Conclusion: Unless we are very lucky, the arguments raging here will seem petty and stupid a few years from now. You will be scared and angry, and the people you are insulting now will be just as scared and angry as you are.

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jamesia:

This poll is just further evidence that "likely voter" models are far to subjective to be useful beyond speculation. Kudos to Ras for trying it out, but this poll is far off.

Most special elections recently show that while Dems aren't viewed so hot, GOP is viewed even less positively.

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Field Marshal:

Speedo,

I see you've experienced the uber-tolerance of the left: name-calling, rethugs and repukes and all the like. Its befitting for these Rhodes scholars, that's for sure.

As far as Obamalover and him looking ridiculous, that's a given. Just wait until his ironic-idiocy calls you a bigot, racist, nazi, et al, because you believe something different. Its hilarious.

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John:

"At this point in time, we use a fairly loose screening process, in the sense that we don't ask details about how certain you are to vote in a particular election next November. In fact, even the term "likely voters" is probably not the best term. I used to use the phrase "high propensity voters," because it was suggesting that these people who were most likely to show up in a typical mid-term election. We're not claiming this is a particular model of who will show up in 2010. When we used the phrase, "high propensity voters" -- I got a bunch of journalists who wrote back saying, "what does that mean?" I tried to explain it and they said, "oh you mean likely voters." So I finally just gave up."

This was from Scott from this article by Mark, /blogs/so_whats_a_likely_voter_answer.html

My guess is his 'high propensity model' is based on questions about either/both, past voting history and current enthusiasm. (I wish he would just say.) This might explain why rasmussens poll tend to favour the republicans right now. It will be interesting to see if there is a jump after labour day when rasmussen changes to more traditional questions/LV model.

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Fred:

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)


2008 president most accurate polls. Who is on the top?

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John:

@Fred

Where is the list from?, what is its criteria for accuracy?, is it just the national numbers or does it include states? If its just the national numbers then the difference between the closest polls was minimal, (and given the final results were 52.9% Obama, 45.7% McCain, Ipsos and CNN were probably closer depending on the measure), on states rasmussen was about average especially on some of the key swing states.

Don't get me wrong, rasmussen in the past has been a fairly reliable pollster (at least for their final polls before elections.) However they tend to be more favourable (than the average) for the republicans and they do produce a lot of polls (compared to other pollsters), which at least at the moment is skewing the polling averages.

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melvin:

Like i said 2 weeks ago Rasmussen has been under polling the Dems right after Penn-12,because he was caught off guard.Penn-12 made him look so bad,so he decided to poll Republicans so high that the other pollsters might follow his lead,but the other pollsters are not,thats why he is out there alone,but on MSNBC yesterday a Democratic pollster is calling for an Rasmussen is under polling the Dems for political reasons,in the Democrats are getting very frustrated with the Rasmussen under polling.

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Fred:

@Melvin

Rasmussen didn't poll that race did he? I don't think you know what you're talking about.

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Cyril Washbrook:

@Fred, that's highly selective. Rasmussen's house effect in past elections was markedly different to what it is now, so you can't just use past results to conclude that its results now necessarily meet some higher standard of accuracy. Moreover, numbers themselves are not instructive. Strategic Vision LLC seemed to come up with some pretty good surveys, but then Nate Silver uncovered the fact that their numbers were fabricated. I'm making no judgement on Rasmussen's validity in this post, but simply suggesting that analysing the validity of pollsters' conclusions requires more than simply producing a single non-contextual comparison, as you have done.

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