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US: Generic Ballot (USAToday/Gallup 3/26-28)

Topics: poll

USA Today/Gallup
3/26-28/10; 1,033 adults, 4% margin of error
968 registered voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(USA Today story, Gallup story)

National

2010 Congress: General Election
Adults: 47% Republican, 45% Democrat
Registered voters: 46% Republican, 45% Democrat (chart)

Party ID
32% Democrat, 28% Republican, 39% independent (chart)

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Some other takeaways from this poll:

62% are more enthusiastic than usual.

Both parties saw enthusiasm increase, the reps from 43% to 50% and the Dems from 25% to 35%.

Record low of 28% say congressmen deserve re-election.

50% say Obama doesn't deserve re-election.

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Stillow:

Tough to get re-elected if 50 percent say you don't deserve it.

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williame123:

@Stillow

"Tough to get re-elected if 50 percent say you don't deserve it."

...and yet Reagan and Clinton both got re-elected.

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Stillow:

With all due respect, Obama is no Ronald Reagan....and Clinton was elected with less than 50 percent and was aided by a depressingly boring Bob Dole candidiacy.

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williame123:

@Stillow

"With all due respect, Obama is no Ronald Reagan"

You are right. Obama won with a larger share of the popular vote in 2008 than Reagan did in 1980. And he managed to do it while jumping over the historically formidable obstacle of race.

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Stillow:

Heheheeh, well then by your logic I guess Obama will also enjoy a 49 state landslide in 2012? I don't suppose you'd like to make a freindly wager on that would you?

Lest you forget, Obama won an open election, Reagan beat an incumabt president. And if memory serves Reagan won 44states in 1980.

So again, Obama is no Ronald Reagan and never will be.

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Thaddeus:

And I for one say thank goodness. Although the SSI tax increases to stabilize the long term solvency and the sensible approach to immigration are policies that Obama could learn from.

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Aaron_in_TX:

I agree with Thaddeus. Obama is no Reagan and that's a good thing.

Republicans have a pretty weak 2012 field as it stands. Unless they can convince David Petreus or someone with serious credibility Obama will probably win. Right now their front-runner is Romney and he probably won't make it through their primaries. The runners-up are Huckabee and Palin and neither stands a chance. I would love to see a health care debate involving Romney..."I like mandates" ha! Thune or Daniels might be dark horses, but their road is long and hard from here.

Health care is likely to be Obama's most divisive issue. It hits at the most fundamental disagreements of Americans and he hasn't been below 45% even during the worst days of it. I don't expect he will ever get much higher than 55% again, but if he got through health care and this is all the damage they can do to him then he's managed pretty well.

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jamesia:

Maybe there is a "50%" unelectable gap, but that's against a magical GOP contender who everyone loves. So far it looks like it'll be Romney or Palin, and Obama will definitely get that landslide with either one of them.

The GOP will need an intellectual, sensible person who can reasonably argue market-based policy. I don't see that person anywhere... Not that it matters, since it seems like the GOP base is currently concerned with candidates that froth at the mouth.

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