Pollster.com

I think I'll wait for some other polls to weigh in on this question, given recent allegations of Ramussen's biased/flawed polling models.

What allegations of biase/flaws? Please provide a link.

FM - for several days now the left has been attacking Rass claiming he is biased and nothing more than a right wing hack.

Of course they all look stupid when rass pulls out his track record as one of the most accurate pollsters out there.

The left loved him several years ago when he shoed the GOP and doing crappy in 2006 and 2008. But now that they are picking up the early trend of Obama tanking, the of course he is a right wing hack. remember a couple months ago when Rass was first to put him under 50 approval...all the Dems whining on this site about bias...hmmmm, now most pollsters put him below 50.

The left has a mental block to the fact rass uses likely voter samples...so its absolutely to be expected that his polling would pick up on trends prior to other pollsters. But the ever tolerant left simply whines and cries foul when they do not get a result they like.

Give it antoher week and i am sure there will be reports that Scott is a racist who hates black people and wants old people to die. Oh yeah, and he will hate gays too.

So they are not really allegations...its more the left just bitching and moaning as they see there savior fall from grace slowly but surely...and they are having a real hard time accepting it.

Ahhh... the typical whining and crying. Figured as much.

I agree that it's in large part whining, but as in any poll, it's all in how questions are asked. Just because a pollster is accurate in head to head match-ups doesn't mean they don't try and influence debate by asking strange questions to set the stage for others such as this Ras agree or disagree question: "It’s always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money.” Whether you agree or not, it's not a question you put in a poll designed to get unbiased opinion. Doesn't however mean he's a bad pollster, just need to be watchful, as we should be with all of them.

Also interesting looking at the history of this poll the slight uptick actually, especially the will something pass, jumped almost 10% in the last four weeks.

Of course we know the media, polls other than rasmussen, all college campuses, every institution with a bureaucracy, and basically all life on earth contains a liberal bias. There's no such thing as right-wing bias.

All you have to do is look at Scott Rasmussen's media appearances to see what audience he's working for. I don't think he's VERY biased, but his samples are probably is closer to 2004 weighing than 2008.

Thaddeus

I suspect we will start seeing a short term bounce in all areas for the president as we start the new year. People tend to reset and regain optimism at the new year....but it won't stick as people will quickly realize they are still losing there jobs and Obama still governs like a loon. I expect a bounce thru January, climaxing at the SOTU address and then back down in Feb.

Thaddeus

I suspect we will start seeing a short term bounce in all areas for the president as we start the new year. People tend to reset and regain optimism at the new year....but it won't stick as people will quickly realize they are still losing there jobs and Obama still governs like a loon. I expect a bounce thru January, climaxing at the SOTU address and then back down in Feb.

I don't like Rasmussen's questions and often wonder if there really is an intentional bias, but I think Nate Silver is dead on with his assessment:
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Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, a highly regarded analyst of polling, also has his problems with the wording of Rasmussen's questions, but says the operation's polling of political horse races "has tended to be quite accurate in the past."

When Rasmussen comes out with a different result from other pollsters, one that favors Republicans, Silver argues that it doesn't represent bias but "a different model of what the 2010 election is going to look like, one which will feature a more conservative electorate . . . and ultimately, these differences of opinion will be tested -- based on what happens next November."

Silver says that Rasmussen is just one of many pollsters and has this advice for consumers of polling and for those who write about it: "If you're running a news organization and you tend to cite Rasmussen's polls disproportionately, it probably means that you are biased -- it does not necessarily mean that Rasmussen is biased."

Stillow: I think he;ll actually climb through 2009, jobs will slowly recover as the Dow will slowly climb and 401K will start to look better. Once healthcare passes and people start processing what was actually gained from it (i.e. no preconditions, lifetime benefit cut offs etc. ) and the costs have been shifted several years out, people will be happy with it. I don't think he'll recover fully, but 55-56. Depends if he's really going to try SSI or immigration before the election...