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US: Immigration (AP-Univision 5/7-12)

Topics: National , poll

AP-Univision
5/7-11/10; 1,002 adults, 4.3% margin of error
5/7-12/10; 901 Hispanic adults, 5.3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(AP release)

National

Obama Job Approval
All adults: 49 / 50 (chart)
Hispanics: 66 / 31

Obama Approval / Disapproval on Issues (among Hispanics in parentheses)
Economy: 45 / 52 (55 / 37) (chart)
Health Care: 45 / 51 (66 / 27) (chart)
Immigration: 38 / 50 (45 / 47)

Congressional Job Approval
All adults: 28 / 71 (chart)
Hispanics: 35 / 60

Do you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?
All adults: 45% Democrats, 40% Republicans
Hispanics: 54% Democrats, 27% Republicans

Do you think the number of LEGAL immigrants from foreign countries who are permitted to come to the United States to live should be increased, decreased or left the same as it is now?
All adults: 17% Increased, 35% Decreased, 47% Left the same
Hispanics: 25% Increased, 16% Decreased, 57% Left the same

How serious a problem is ILLEGAL immigration for this country today?
All adults: 66% Extremely/very, 26% Somewhat, 7% Not too/Not at all
Hispanics: 65% Extremely/very, 25% Somewhat, 9% Not too/Not at all

Do you favor or oppose providing a legal way for illegal immigrants already in the United States to become U.S. citizens?
All adults: 59% Favor, 39% Oppose
Hispanics: 86% Favor, 13% Oppose

In general, do you think that police crackdowns on undocumented or illegal immigrants... (
All adults: 49% unfairly target Hispanics, 45% Treat all ethnic groups fairly
Hispanics: 73% Unfairly target Hispanics, 22% Treat all ethnic groups fairly

From what you may have read, seen or heard about the new immigration law that was just passed in the state of Arizona, do you favor, oppose or neither favor or oppose this law?
All adults: 42% Favor, 24% Oppose
Hispanics: 15% Favor, 67% Oppose

Party ID
All adults: 35% Democrat, 26% Republican, 25% independent (chart)
Hispanics: 36% Democrat, 8% Republican, 24% independent

 

Comments
djneedle83:

Duh!! Of course Hispanics don't support the Arizona law. However, nobody cares if you think supporting sb1070 is racist in nature. The reality is the Feds supported open borders, then supported doing nothing to improve the mess, and definitely won't give stealth amnesty with 2 key democratic legacy elections in 2.5 years.

I'm a moderate liberal democrat and have no problem with Arizona's approach to solving this border crisis. Fear is the greatest component in fighting an illegal immigrant problem where a Hispanic population feels entitled to cross the border at will. This fear does extend to employers who systematically reduce wages to slave levels. They are now eligible for criminal penalities and being put out of business.

The reality--- let's fix this shit and hope the 9th district court in San Fran does not rule that states don't have rights under the tenth amendments soveriegnty clause. Then the appeal goes to the supreme court. :-))

The supreme courts two big cases comming up
1) gay marriage 5-4 in favor- scallia, Thomas, , 2 bush guys dissent
2) az law 5-4 in favor .. Maybe 6-3 in favor - 4 repubs.. With kennedy/kagan in favor

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djneedle83:

Duh!! Of course Hispanics don't support the Arizona law. However, nobody cares if you think supporting sb1070 is racist in nature. The reality is the Feds supported open borders, then supported doing nothing to improve the mess, and definitely won't give stealth amnesty with 2 key democratic legacy elections in 2.5 years.

I'm a moderate liberal democrat and have no problem with Arizona's approach to solving this border crisis. Fear is the greatest component in fighting an illegal immigrant problem where a Hispanic population feels entitled to cross the border at will. This fear does extend to employers who systematically reduce wages to slave levels. They are now eligible for criminal penalities and being put out of business.

The reality--- let's fix this shit and hope the 9th district court in San Fran does not rule that states don't have rights under the tenth amendments soveriegnty clause. Then the appeal goes to the supreme court. :-))

The supreme courts two big cases comming up
1) gay marriage 5-4 in favor- scallia, Thomas, , 2 bush guys dissent
2) az law 5-4 in favor .. Maybe 6-3 in favor - 4 repubs.. With kennedy/kagan in favor

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djneedle83:

Duh!! Of course Hispanics don't support the Arizona law. However, nobody cares if you think supporting sb1070 is racist in nature. The reality is the Feds supported open borders, then supported doing nothing to improve the mess, and definitely won't give stealth amnesty with 2 key democratic legacy elections in 2.5 years.

I'm a moderate liberal democrat and have no problem with Arizona's approach to solving this border crisis. Fear is the greatest component in fighting an illegal immigrant problem where a Hispanic population feels entitled to cross the border at will. This fear does extend to employers who systematically reduce wages to slave levels. They are now eligible for criminal penalities and being put out of business.

The reality--- let's fix this shit and hope the 9th district court in San Fran does not rule that states don't have rights under the tenth amendments soveriegnty clause. Then the appeal goes to the supreme court. :-))

The supreme courts two big cases comming up
1) gay marriage 5-4 in favor- scallia, Thomas, , 2 bush guys dissent
2) az law 5-4 in favor .. Maybe 6-3 in favor - 4 repubs.. With kennedy/kagan in favor

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melvin:

Boxer is going to win this going away,her lead is getting bigger because of one thing the Arz immigration law,the Republicans do not know what they have done,they have awakend a sleeping giant.The American public might support this law by a wide margin,but the Hispanic in the Asian cummunity dissaproves of this law by 75% to 20% which is very bad news for the Gop,Obama got 67% of the Hispanic vote in 2008,with this law alienating Hispanics in Asians,he is going to get 80% of the Hispanic vote in 2012,which means the Republican nominee have to get 65% of the white vote to win,the Republicans have dugged themselves into a very big hole Karl Rove is the only Republican who understands what dammage has been done,and its very dammaging,the Republican party has just given the Democrats the Whitehouse from here until eternity,States like Nevada in Nmex in Penn has just went from tossups to solid blue,Colorado,Florida,Arizonia,in Ohio is now lean blue,but the biggest gain is going to be Texas which was solid red,but now its going to be lean red,but in 2016 its going to be lean blue,how can the Republicans win when 95% of blacks in 80% of Hispanics in 75% of Asians now supports Democrats,Fox news is doing very bad dammage to the Gop along with the far-right radio,this Arz law might help the Gop in November,but in the long run its going to destroy the Republican party.the reason the far-right in foxnews are happy is because 65% of the country supports this law,but they dont see the dammage that has been done,but they will see it in 2012 in beyond,when Calif passed a immigration law back in 1994,it also was supported very big by the American public,but was not supported at all by the Hispanics,that law took Calif from a lean red to a solid blue and because of that law the Republicans will never win Calif again,thats why this Arz law will destroy the Republican party.

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StatyPolly:

74% of Hispanics want total legal immigration reduced or left the same.
65% thinks Illegal Immigration is a serious problem.

That's what I've seen for years. Once you're in and legal, you don't support open borders.

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Field Marshal:

This polling is actually more even than i expected.

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Thaddeus:

Although it doesn't state why they think it is a serious problem, it could be the number of people that die and the cost of trying to get in repeatedly. Interesting though that while 7% say they want the legal immigration left the same, 86% favor a path to citizenship for those here currently with out documents. Doesn't sound like blanket "no support for open boarders."

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StatyPolly:

Yeah, it's contradictory to favor a path to citizenship AND not to favor increasing total immigration.

BTW, I wonder if the Hispanic sample includes undocumented. I figure the undocumented may make up as much as 40% of all Latinos in the country.

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Field Marshal:

I was wondering the same thing Staty. Obviously illegals are going to push for amnesty. Did the poll account for this in anyway? And what's up with the party ID of hispanics too?

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StatyPolly:

Well, the poll sort of hints at some clues. I haven't gone thru the while thing.

IM19. If a police officer were to have stopped you today while you were outside of your
home, and asked you to produce proof that you are a U.S. citizen or otherwise in the
United States legally, would you have been able to provide such proof, or would you
not have had that kind of documentation available?

I would not have such proof Hispanic - 27, non-Hispanic - 15.

They should have asked if such a proof exists anywhere..

Another possible hint:

S1. Are you currently registered to vote at your current address, or not?

Hispanic 55
Non-Hispanic 89

Only 43% of Hispanic respondents were born in US.

Nothing conclusive, but I tend to think there is a substantial number of illegals in the Hispanic sample.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Every developed country has an illegal immigrant problem. It was a big issue in the British election.

You people should be GLAD we have latin american immigration and not immigrants from the middle east/north africa who are culturally very different than Americans/Europeans. Hispanic immigrants will not riot like the muslim ones do in France.

Latin Americans have European roots, and most importantly they are Christians. It's very easy for them to integrate into our culture, even though they bring some of their language & food with them, which I don't mind since I speak Spanish and love Mexican food.

This problem should be looked at from the demand side. Illegal immigration is at its base a labor problem, since too many people want to pay slave wages for certain types of work and illegals are willing to work for that.

America has always had a worker underclass and they always got scapegoated whether it was black slaves, irish, italian, slavic, chinese, or whatever immigrant workers. Now its illegals and people want to blame them for everything when WE are the problem.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Now, this is an AP poll so there's some house effect. But what is clear is that republicans are setting themselves up for failure among the hispanic community, with only 8% identifying as republicans. Let's just say there's a 7-10% house effect, that's still terrible.

Hispanics are the growth stock of American political demographics. Whites are only going to become a smaller share, and republicans have not gotten more than 60% of whites for two decades. They would do well to propose some sort of immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship. Bush tried to do it.

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StatyPolly:

"You people", Aaron?

What people exactly are you talking about? Great looking and brilliant white guys in their prime?

Highly offensive.

I am kidding you. I do agree with you on most of your points. We are BLESSED not to have the Euro illegal and legal immigration problems. They'll be f%$#ked good soon and for a long time. They're on their way to become a Saudi style theocracy, it appears.

I totally think we benefit tremendously from immigration in US. Always have and will for as long as the eye can see. I don't think we at all are overcrowded or any such arguments. I support a very robust immigration policy and perhaps a guest worker program as well.

None of it has anything to do with the ILLEGAL immigration. Or little to do with. They're practically apples and oranges. Don't have the time to get into more detail right now, but some other time..

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Aaron_in_TX:

Sorry, but I love demographics :)

http://www.prb.org/Articles/2006/HispanicsAccountforAlmostOneHalfofUSPopulationGrowth.aspx

This pop pyramid is from 2004, but you can see how the bulk of the white population is over 40 and the bulk of the hispanic population is under 35. And this chart probably doesn't fully reflect the fact that there was a LOT of immigration activity in the middle part of the last decade ~2003-2007.

In 2008 young latinos went for Obama by 76-19, far outsripping their older counterparts that "only" went about 60-38 for Obama. That's a lot of ground to make up and this poll shows that the republican immigration stance isn't helping.

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Field Marshal:

Aaron,

Most of the growth in population over the past decade came from the hispanic class. But how much of that growth was from illegal immigrants?

If we were to stop the flow, or severely limit it, and eliminate the anchor-baby and families get in free loopholes, how much would the GOP be setting themselves up for failure?

Personally, i think not much. If immigration were truly regulated like it should be, most of the immigrants would still be hispanic, yes, but i think they would be more wealthy, self-reliant, and assimilated if the illegal aspect of it didn't exist (at least to the extent it does today). And with hispanics being very religious and conservative on social issues and the dems being so anti-religion and liberal on those same issues, it will be only a matter of time before they get disgusted by the liberals ruining the democrat party.

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djneedle83:

IM4

Contribution to Society /Drain to society
Hispanics 74/21 support this statement
Non-Hispanics 35/60 split on this statement


IM6

Immigration a serious crime vs. minor offense
Hispanics 24% serious crime 73% minor offense
Non-Hispanics 62% serious crime 36% minor offense

IM7

Local police enforcing federal immigration laws
Hispanics 16% Support 81% Don’t support
Non-Hispanics 61% support 37% Don’t support

IM12
Arizona law support

Hispanics 15% Support 67% Don’t Support 17% Neither
Non Hispanics 45% Support 20% Oppose 30% Neither
--- I guess neither is like being neutral—status quo

These 4 statements show that the Latino community believes all immigrants are the same. This is a wake up call to the Latinos that you’re not going to get your stealth amnesty under the Obama administration. He talks a big game, but he wants to win in 2012. If he supports a stealth amnesty (without stiff border enforcement) in 2011, then he will lose the entire white vote.

I'm a WHITE liberal Democrat that supported him and nobody in the non-Hispanic community wants amnesty at the pace things are going now.

It's all about entitlement culture because non-Hispanics in Arizona are wealthier and are footing the costs for anchor babies/education/prisons/natal emergency care/and food stamps for children born of illegals. Not to mention all of the other costs associated with this mess.

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djneedle83:

From a political perspective, the Latino community is much more socially conservative then most white democrats. I bet more Hispanics support stealth amnesty (amnesty without enforcement) then do legalizing pot. This is the complete opposite of white democrats.

However, white democrats tend to be more economically (fiscally) conservative then most Hispanics in this country. If the Democrats use amnesty for votes which they are kind of doing they --white voters will walk away from them for good. They may not turn to the GOP, but will become Independent voters that will consistently support liberal/moderate republicans who different on immigration.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"i think they would be more wealthy, self-reliant, and assimilated if the illegal aspect of it didn't exist"

"anchor-baby and families get in free loopholes,"

The family connections happened with every immigrant wave. One comes in, soon a bunch of the family comes in.

"i think they would be more wealthy, self-reliant, and assimilated if the illegal aspect of it didn't exist"

I don't think so. Wealthy, self-reliant people don't need to leave their own country. If they are middle class there, why leave? Immigrants are always going skew toward poorer people looking for something better. Not "the poor," they can't afford to come, but not middle class or wealthy either.

If we completely made the border a police state and illegal crossings went to 0, the birth rates and sheer numbers would still take their toll. Whites simply aren't producing beyond replacement level, and in many states they're experiencing negative growth. Hispanics are. Illegal crossings may accelerate the trends somewhat in border states.

"it will be only a matter of time before they get disgusted by the liberals ruining the democrat party."

There's an opening re: the abortion issue and other "family values" sort of things. But I think they can sense the hostility among republicans toward them. They demonize the way their parents or grandparents probably came to this country.

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kingsbridge77:
Duh!! Of course Hispanics don't support the Arizona law.

Did you know that Blacks oppose the law even more so than Hispanics?

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Aaron_in_TX:

"he will lose the entire white vote."

Ha! Unlikely. Even Walter Mondale got 35% of the white vote. He'd just lose more of the republican/right leaning indep. vote. He didn't get many of them in 2008 anyway.

Gore got 42% of whites in 2000 = 266 EVs. Obama got 43% in 2008 = 365 EVs. That 1% was not what did it. There was a 6% total decrease in white votes, so a 1% increase in their share probably didn't translate into that much of a net gain in votes. Factor in the margin of error with exit polling and Obama probably did the same as Gore did among whites, yet his EV total blows Gore out of the water. Other parts of the electorate were the crucial factors.

The democratic share of the white vote is very consistent, and illegal immigration is not a signature issue for most democrats. It is for republicans.

I expect illegal immigration is an issue because employment is struggling and people want a scapegoat for why there are no jobs.

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Marcello Mastroianni:

This is probably the most useful poll on this issue I've seen yet. It makes clear distinctions between legal and illegal immigrants -- many in the media have an unfortunate habit of lumping them all together. And it shows that most Hispanics, like the rest of America, see illegal immigration as a serious problem. That's not surprising, but we now have solid ammunition to use against those who believe that *any* opposition to illegal immigration is necessarily racist.

As a side note to those who disparage those from the Middle East, I live in southeast Michigan, which has one of the largest Arab and Muslim populations outside of the Middle East. We're getting along fine :-)

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Aaron_in_TX:

Obama won by 9.5 million votes. The white vote was 74% of the electorate so about 97.2 million out of 131.3 million. Obama won 43% of them for 41.8 million.

If everything else was the same, but Obama had only won 41% of whites, which is what John Kerry got, he would have won by more than 7 million votes. If he'd had only gotten 38%, which would be lower than any democrat since 1984, he would have still won by more than 4 million, although the EV vote would probably have been much closer.

Whites are no longer swing voters. They tend to turn out consistently and have voted in consistent patterns since 1988. It's other groups that jump around.

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StatyPolly:

Marcello, you live southeast Michigan?

I thought you passed like a decade ago. Ever seen Elvis in the hood?

Loved you in La Dolce Vita, by the way. Among others.

People should read up on how some of the EuroLands treat their ILLEGAL immigrants. Like Switzerland and Italy, for example. Pretty harsh.

____________________

StatyPolly:

Aaron, without looking at the 08 exit polls, I recall that it was the story of enthusiasm gap.

Traditional Dem voters came out in much larger numbers than usual (the young and black voters in particular), inspired by Barack and pissed at Bush's Iraq war, while traditional GOP voters were not only disappointed in Bush and the recently GOP controlled Congress, but also seriously uninspired by McCain.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"I recall that it was the story of enthusiasm gap."

So was 2004.

Generally I think that all elections hinge on turnout. 2000 was a low turnout election, and you saw what happened. Tied. The parties have basically equal stregnth when the voters are equally motivated or unmotivated. It depends who's "fired up" at the moment to swing it one way or the other.

It's extremely difficult to get people to change their prejudices, so all the campaigning trying to "convince" people is all bull. Maybe 5-8% of voters tops can be convinced one way or the other. No one is convinced other than to get off their lazy butts for one hour and press a button to confirm their already held prejudices.

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Field Marshal:

"The family connections happened with every immigrant wave. One comes in, soon a bunch of the family comes in."

Yes, that is what i was talking about. I think it needs to end.

"I don't think so. Wealthy, self-reliant people don't need to leave their own country. If they are middle class there, why leave? Immigrants are always going skew toward poorer people looking for something better. Not "the poor," they can't afford to come, but not middle class or wealthy either."

I'm not talking about wealthy people from other countries. I'm talking about people who come here poor and become wealthy.


"There's an opening re: the abortion issue and other "family values" sort of things. But I think they can sense the hostility among republicans toward them. They demonize the way their parents or grandparents probably came to this country."

I think they respect the need for law and order more once they are citizens as shown by this poll and many others. They also respect the social issues much more than the political ones, IMO. This is where I believe, down the road, there will be a significant conversion towards the right as the Dems continue to show their religion and social issues hostility and scorn.


I love Arizona!

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Marcello Mastroianni:

Glad you enjoy the flix, StatyPolly! Fellini was a riot, still is. We see Elvis all the time, he likes a good meal, we all go to the same restaurants. Haven't run in to Marilyn Monroe, tho. Shame, I always had a thing for that girl!

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Dems continue to show their religion and social issues hostility and scorn."

Cultural trends favor democrats though. Ie: people identifying with no religion have doubled since 1990, religious identification down in the mid-to-low 70s when it used to be in the 80s. Also people delaying marriage much longer than before. Singles favor democrats overwhelmingly, particularly single females. Republican voters are much more likely to be white, married, and regular church attendees, and this is a shrinking group.

The same thing started happening in Europe 40-50 years ago. Less religiosity, less marriage, less kids, declining population. Similar trends in the American white population the last 10-15 years. Recession will only accelerate it.

It could help republicans in the sense that their supporters, even though their numbers are shrinking, would become more of a unified bloc.

I think the parties will remain at parity for some time, but the democrats will have somewhat of a handicap thanks to trends in their favor. Doesn't mean they will always win, though.

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StatyPolly:

Aaron, agree on those trends. Question is how is it working out for Europe?

I realize the left in US wants to move us in that direction, but facts are Europe is just not as well off as we are. Their long term growth rates have are consistently below ours. What's more, they'd be far worse off from where they're now, if US did not exist. We have completely bankrolled their defense for a better part of a century. We are the ones who invent the bulk of stuff that improves quality of life and creates wealth. From medical breakthroughs to the internet. (Al Gore is no Frenchman, oui?)

Also, there are some trends that show movement towards conservatism in US.

Here is one from TODAY's Gallup.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/128036/New-Normal-Abortion-Americans-Pro-Life.aspx

Here is another one.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/117361/recent-shootings-gun-control-support-fading.aspx

____________________

seg:

This is the best exchange of views I have read on this site. Congratulations to all.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

"just not as well off as we are."

Depends on the country, but Germany, France, Britain, Scandinavia, low countries I would argue have a reasonably similar standard of living when you put it in context. Southern Europe somewhat less, but then that's always been the case.

"I realize the left in US wants to move us in that direction, but facts are Europe is just not as well off as we are."

I didn't say it was good. It's just happening. There are churches in Europe that are hundreds of years old and they're tearing them down because no one goes. I think that's terrible.

"We have completely bankrolled their defense"

I tend to think it's a waste of money. They have few external threats now, no border disputes, etc... Russia has way too many internal problems to worry about taking over eastern europe that wants to be in the EU. The bases in Germany & Italy are cold war relics and should be closed. Worst problems they have are internal unrest and terrorism, and our military doesn't help them with that.

Reasonable population growth is necessary for economic growth. We've still got good growth thanks to immigration though.

"From medical breakthroughs"

They do make contributions if you pick up a medical journal. Pulminary medicine for example; some of the cutting edge research comes from Germany.

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Farleftandproud:

This poll clearly proves just how many Americans are fearful racists. Many of us work with blacks, latinos, and other groups every day but when most white Americans are polled, it doesn't surprise me one bit the results of this poll.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"This poll clearly proves just how many Americans are fearful racists."

Umm.. what? Farleft, you're not helping our cause here.

I don't see how this poll proves racism. Whites are basically split, but lean in agreement that this law will treat hispanics unfairly. I think that's actually a pretty decent result. They also favor a path to citizenship for those already here by 20 points. That's pretty good.

What I think it does reflect is that some whites simply don't understand why minorities are less comfortable with police & more worried about profiling or discrimination. Probably because a white person is much more likely to be middle class and live in places where contact with the authorities, particularly negative contact, if far less likely. Minorities are far more likely to have had unpleasant experiences with cops at some point in their lives.

I think that is reflected in the large number of neutral responses among whites in the favor/oppose question.

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Marcello Mastroianni:

> This poll clearly proves just how
> many Americans are fearful racists.

*facepalm*

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