September 4, 2008
US: McCain 42, Obama 42 (CBS-9/1-3)
CBS News
9/1-3/08; 734 RV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(story, results)
National
McCain 42, Obama 42
(8/31: Obama 48, McCain 40)
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 4, 2008 4:53 PM | Permalink
Comments
No way this is right.
"there is no "present" button in the governors mansion or the white house".
SSSSSSarah-cuda!
Heard that nickname on Rush. You liberals should listen to Rush, you might learn something.
I always love how a poll like this will add in more undecideds than the previous poll.
Marctx,
You listen to Rush regularly and you want us to believe that you are a Democrat, voting Republican for the first time?
A 8% shift in 3 days? I find that hard to believe.
Either the last poll was off or this poll is off I think, but I don't see how there would be that big a shift in so little time, especially given that I would assume that this doesn't include Palin's speech from last night.
Clearly an outlier compared to Rasmussen and Gallup being taken in the same sample period. That said, Nate at fivethirtyeight.com rates CBS as the worst pollster not to use a discredited methodology like Zogby Interactive of Columbus Dispatch. So take that with a grain of salt. 12% undecided is also very high for this - CBS is the only pollster pulling double digit undecideds at this point.
Interesting numbers, in other words, but it needs corroborating data to matter.
waiting for the internals, but, from the writeup -- it seems like CBS just overpolled Dems last time, and is underpolling them this time. It makes it seem like the race swung more than it actually did.
If I wanted to listen to a conservative journalist I would rather listen to someone like Scarborough who mostly seems to have very objective conservative views and less of an ideologue. I get really tired of fanatics like Glen Beck, Oriely, Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, and Ann Coulter. Heck I dislike the Liberal ones too like Franken, Olberman, et. al.
@Stillow:
Did you hear Dennis Miller on O'Reilly yesterday? He was funny. He said that if he was Joe Biden, he would be getting that VP contract thing in writing. There might be something to what he is saying. I heard Rush Limbaugh say on Fox news this morning that Obama might be looking for an excuse to ditch Biden and then try to put Hillary or another woman on the ticket. I've had those same thoughts lately. This latest national poll could prompt Obama to make some unlikely moves.
It's kind of ridiculous that a poll can show a two point gain for one candidate and an 6 point loss for another over a period of just 3 days, and even if you give Palin credit for a big bounce, this was a three day sample, only the last one possibly covering some of the potential speech bounce.
So in reality, this would have been a reflection of a loss of Obama's bounce and not a McCain bounce. I do not tend to trust polls that show such wild swings without much reason. I do however generally trust that the results of the Pollster tracker are within 3 points of the real result, and likely underestimating Obama's results due to the house effects of Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracker.
@SwingVote
I listen to Randi Rhodes....and I assure you I am no liberal!
"You listen to Rush regularly and you want us to believe that you are a Democrat, voting Republican for the first time?"
About half of Rush's audience is Democrats....
@player
You're on crack. That's what happens when you watch and listen to that stuff...you start believing the lies they say.
@Tybo
Do you have any links to a reliable source that states as much, or did you just hear him claim that?
Don't worry libs, even I don't think the race is 42/42...I'm pretty sure Obama has a 5 point edge or so....now next week when the polls tighten....then these #'s will be valid....Palin helped the GOpand will get a bounce.
@player
I said last week on this blog that if Palin delivered a knock out speech that don't be surprised if Biden suddenly gets sick and has to "drop out"............Obama is more nevous than a chicken at KFC.....these libs on here will deny it til they are blue i nthe face, but Palin connected with the base and with indy's....watch these #'s tighten up big next week if not even to a small McCain lead.
Player believes Rush is credible. From now on I am ignoring all player comments because we know what kind of person he is. (maybe now he'll link me to ayers)
A little comedy:
@Bamster:
I never touch the stuff. I don't even drink.
McCain was throwing a "Hail Mary" with the Palin pick?
No, when you throw a hail mary, you need to throw a football. McCain wandered off the field, to a nearby fruit market, picked up a kumquat and launched it two feet at a fire hydrant.
That is what the Palin pick was. The unexplainable action of a crazy person.
@Robi:
Sorry Robi, no chance of a link; Ayers has a PHD.
bramster - He's just an idiot. No drugs needed.
Anyhoo, this has to be the biggest PWNING .....EVER!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/4/105623/5197/586/586233
I voted for Hillary in the primaries, Kerry before that, Gore before that. It's McCain-Palin this year because Obama is to scary.
I've always listened to Rush. He would not be number one and signing a 400 million dollar contract if he was not getting a lot of listeners.
Looks like CBS polled Utah excessively with this poll.....fools.
I can't wait til the Palin adultery story comes out! Yikes!!!
This is certainly encouraging for McCain (especially since he hasn't give his acceptance speech yet and Palin's speech was just last night), but as others have stated, there's not much sense in looking at national polls until early next week. Then we'll know if either candidate really got a 'bounce' from their convention, and if so, how big. Whether you agree with her or like her or not, Palin's speech was brilliant and she did exactly what the McCain campaign needed her to do. She demonstrated to middle America that she's "one of them" and she will no doubt appeal to far more swing voters (i.e. white women, working class men, independents, Catholics, and sportsmen), especially in big industrial states like PA, OH, MI, more than any other running mate McCain could have selected. If McCain has a good, straightforward, impassioned speech tonight, I think the race will be tied next week. Then the Rev. Wright, Tony Rezko, William Ayers, "bitter", inexperience, and "Not ready on Day One or at 3AM" ads will start in all the swing states through Oct. And we'll see yet another Republican "patriot" get elected and yet another Democrat "elitist" (who had all the same demographics issues as Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, and McGovern) lose. Just watch. Hillary in 2012!
marctx joins the list.
@Robi
I am not sure they care....and there is nothing wrong with getting all sides of an issue. I listen to Rush sometimes, but I also listen to Randi Rhodes, who if you do not know is a hard core leftist. I watch CNN, Fox and MSNBC....I like getting all perspectives....you guys who are o nthe left who automatically discount sources like Fox and Rush, really limit yourselves to one viewpoint. Which is in my opinion the reason you guys "cling" to your stances even when the argument is extremely weak. Your a lefty, diveristy is your thing right?
As the Rasmussen and Gallup seemed to be building a consensus, here comes CBS to muddy the waters. And they are showing a 16% undecided number which is incredibly high for after Labor Day. I am a conspiracy theory guy and I think that these organizations are "manufacturing" results to keep it close. A 5 pt Obama lead with no discernible way for McCain to recover before the debates was starting to look like a death grip. I can't think that Palin did anything to move the poll because all of the negative stuff has already been thrown at Obama. Did she think she could outdo the visuals that have already been rolled out? She could fire up the base but they are already counted. As some of her more extreme views get out, she may actually become a drag. I could see Obama going negative with an attack on her and his age at the same time. That could be a killer.
I said that there would be a bump and it will continue until two or three weeks from now (the debate will really put things into motion)
@atreides
What is it with you guys? Palin is negative? Pointing out the other guys dopy stances on key issues is not negative.....I suppose Biden's speech where he slammed mccain every 30 seconds was a glorious display of positive and bi partisan mastery right? Or Obama's speech where he slammed Mccain every 20 seconds was a never before seen act of good will, positive thoughts and the ultimate in reaching out to the other side.
the more you guys open your mouths, the more stupid you look....its on a daily basis.
It is interesting that we rarely see McCain's numbers going up. I don't ever remember seeing a poll with him over 50%. He can drive down Obama's numbers with attacks like we saw last night. But those that change their minds stay in the undecided column. He cannot seem to bring them over to the Rep. side. I think that it is the economy. When the Reps try to focus on identity politics when the undecideds want to hear about the economy it causes distrust.
Maybe they don't trust Obama but that McCain 90% plus agreement in voting with Bush is a hurdle McCain can't get over. Obama should hammer that message home every chance he gets.
Well that didn't take long.......
We all knew that racists support the Republican party, and so were waiting for a racist comment. Well now, a repub congressman shows his true colors......
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/westmoreland-calls-obama-uppity-2008-09-04.html
--------------------------------------------
Georgia Republican Rep. Lynn Westmoreland used the racially-tinged term "uppity" to describe Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama Thursday.
Westmoreland was discussing vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin's speech with reporters outside the House chamber and was asked to compare her with Michelle Obama.
"Just from what little I’ve seen of her and Mr. Obama, Sen. Obama, they're a member of an elitist-class individual that thinks that they're uppity," Westmoreland said.
Asked to clarify that he used the word “uppity,” Westmoreland said, “Uppity, yeah.”
Other Democrats have charged that the Republican campaign to paint the Illinois senator as an “elitist” is racially charged, and accused them of using code words for “uppity” without using the word itself.
In August, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) told reporters, “When I hear the word ‘elitist’ linked with Barack Obama, to me, that is a code word for 'uppity.' I find it extremely offensive and John McCain should know better.”
Political consultant David Gergen, who has worked in both Republican and Democratic White Houses, said on ABC’s "This Week" that “As a native of the south, I can tell you, when you see this Charlton Heston ad, 'The One,' that's code for, 'He's uppity, he ought to stay in his place.' Everybody gets that who is from a Southern background.”
The Obama campaign, asked about the quote, did not note any racial context.
“Sounds like Rep. Westmoreland should be careful throwing stones from his candidate's eight glass houses,” said Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor.
Campaigning against the first black major-party nominee has already created some problems for Republicans.
Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) said that Obama's middle name – Hussein – is relevant to the public discourse surrounding his candidacy, saying in March that if Obama were elected, "Then the radical Islamists, the al Qaeda, the radical Islamists and their supporters, will be dancing in the streets in greater numbers than they did on Sept. 11 because they will declare victory in this War on Terror."
At an April 12 event in his district, Kentucky Rep. Geoff Davis (R) said of Obama: “I’m going to tell you something: That boy’s finger does not need to be on the button. He could not make a decision in that simulation that related to a nuclear threat to this country.”
Davis sent a letter of apology to Obama in which he described his remark as a “poor choice of words.”
Westmoreland originally supported former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination. He now supports McCain, but missed an August fundraiser for the nominee because he was vacationing with his family.
I watch fox from time to time but never rush.
Rush is a sad excuse for a human being who flat out makes the most outrageous comments and obscene comments about whatever comes his way.
He's not a political analyst, he's an entertainer and I'm not going to give him my support. He has no credibility and anyone who thinks so...well...you can probably finish that sentence.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0o6yrdInw6s
There are many, many more. This isn't about getting all view points. That would be like asking me to listen to the KKK rally for all viewpoints.
Stillow - you are such a ignoramus. Palin lied repeatedly about Obama and her own record. Are you really that effing stupid?????
It's not that Palin's speech was negative (at least for me). It was that she was blatantly lying about Obama being bipartisan. But then again, I seem to be responding to the Rush groupies.
Of course my comment about her lying is now completely overshadowed by Brutus doing what he does best:
Calling people names...
Although CBS does not make this easy to figure out, the composition of the sample by party ID in the WEIGHTED results of this poll (see the very bottom of each poll's report) is significantly different from the one released Monday and may be enough to explain the change in results. By my reckoning it was about 26%R, 35%D, 38.5% indie the first time and 31%R, 35%D and 34%I this time. I did a very quick-and-dirty calculation and invite the serious-minded poll junkies here to double-check my work.
Man, you guys are a hoot, all of you. Let's be real. Obama is up by 5. CBS has an over/under polling issue between the last two polls. Palin hit a homerun with the base that is sure to spur on the Obama supporters even more, and based on some conversations I had and heard today, people in the middle didn't like her. I don't know what McBush was thinking, but no one wants a Hockey Mom to run the country. Just realize that I had to actually type that. IT MAKES NO SENSE. The Independents get that. The big key, as someone pointed out, is that it doesn't matter what poll you look at or what Obama's number is...McBush never gets over 42/43 percent. When I hear that "Obama never gets over 50 percent," I have to just laugh. This thing will end 52/47/1 (for the third parties). Obama will take 311 electoral votes. The Republican party will have to figure out if it wants to be about Bible thumpers or Moderates for 2012 and beyond. End. Of. Story.
@Robi
She did not lie....she had some spin on his record to make it look less favorable....isn't that what politicans do? Obama and Biden aere out doing the same thing....go look at Biden's speech, not only did he attack, but did it well. Ya gotta start looking at these things in the big picture and not thru a microscope. The left get sall upset about attacking there side.....when they do the exact same thing....its called politics.
Stillow:
Obama has no record of bipartisanship?
Outlier
owned
btw poll talk:
16 point undecided is really interesting this time of the campaign.
Senator Lugar of Iowa is a Republican is he not? Did He and Obama not enact Legislation with regards to Nucleur Proliferation and organize a round up of loose Nukes in the Former Soviet Union?
I think you are going find Secretary of State Colin Powell Republican and Senator Chuck Hagel Republican endorse Obama once this Convention is over!
Stillow-
All that stuff about Obama raising taxes was a lie. Obama will lower taxes on 95% of the public. The Reps need to be called on that.
You can tell Obama is nervous because now he's flipping like a pancake on issues that might tick off his base....he's out there now saying the sruge was a huge success....where he told Katie while overseas it was not and even on that day he would not have supported.....the guy flips better than Kerry could ever dream of. All that we need now is for him to come and and support offshore drilling.....i'd bet a shave and a haircut he will end up supporting it before the debates.........
zotz:
To be fair, Palin said he would raise taxes, she didn't say for who. That is spin so fine whatever. Mislead the public.
Stillow stay on point.
Are you telling me Obama has no record of bipartisanship?
@thoughtful
I agree. This appears to be an outlier ...
@zotz
That is "income taxes" only. He is rasing capital gains taxes....faaaaaaar more than 5% of us own investments. He is raising the payroll taxes, which of cours eis not only a tax on you, but also the business you work for............your a lefty, you know how many different taxes you pay.....its not just income taxes............and by letting the bush tax cuts expire, the child tax credit gets reduced by half, in effect thats a tax increase from what they get now.......so don't feed me the 95% thing.....it doesn't fly....and people know it.
Stillow:
thanks for answering my question (NOT).
Don't talk to me about flipping. You really want to go there?
Maybe btw Obama actually has CONCEDED a point and says that the surge is working. Although I haven't heard him say that and he's probably talking about the Suni awakening.
But if you want to talk about flip flop. McCain is KING.
stillow - No wonder you like Palin - she is a liar - just like you.
Stillow
For a nervous guy he didn't show em in his O'reilly interview which I have seen the some of. He's moved more to the centre.
You know I like watching Fox so I know what the other guys are thinking.
+2 to -6
seriously, dont talk about flip flopping. thats a debate you will DEFINITELY lose. McCain has been god awful...there was a time when he was VERY popular with both inds. and libs.
I used to support McCain. Hell, I was gonna vote for him two years ago until I discovered how awful he is now and how great Obama is.
actually, i can't believe you even mentioned flip flopping....grrrr. You were gaining some credibility in my book stillow..then you said that and showed everyone here that you are either BLIND or a HUGE hypocrite.
Agreed and thinking that Rush is anything near a valid political analyst is just plain wrong.
They need an instant messaging form of this so we can see responses right away. I hate this reloading lag time thing
New Howey-Gauge Poll of Indiana John McCain 45-43 Barrack Obama just published tonight Aug29-30 4.1 moe
Indiana state poll?
Uhhh, ya mccain flopped before, but the fact obama is doing it "now" show's he thinks he needs to tune up......espeically on that issue.
I'll bet ya guys money he flips on oil drilling.
On oil drilling really?
Obama will not CAMPAIGN on oil drilling. He might sign bills that have part of the action be for oil drilling but Obama will never say:
"DRILL HERE DRILL NOW!"
Once again, listen to what Obama attributes the surge to. It's not just the increase in troops that helped the region. This is the problem, people don't look into issues enough. Look up the role Suni leaders had to help with the surge. Obama attributes a part of the success to that while McCain doesn't.
BTW Stillow:
You think that Obama has NO record of bipartisanship in the senate?
nah, he wont, guarantee it. Not after he told over 40 million people a week ago that it was a stop-gap measure that will only result in even more dependence on outdated fossil fuels (talk about dependence). Hes absolutely right...we need to FIX the problem with a solution..not with another problem.
The MOE (4%) handles the sampling size issue. The pollster noted "The race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even, 42% to 42%. In polling conducted last weekend, the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by EIGHT points."
KipTin:
Bounce? Of course.
Popular vote wins elections? I think not.
Pollster Electoral count:
260 OB-179 MP
Close?
Yes Robi Indiana but the timing of this poll is at the end of Dem Convention and the Palin announcement
Difficult for McCain to shine to night!
Listening to these commentators on Fox its like Stillow is in the room!
it amazes me how many tools on this board can't even read a poll. when you weight your sample differently, yes fools, the results change. Go look at the party id of their last poll and compare it to this one. Notice anything? yeah, run along now......
Strange poll. While party id can change, for it to go from (26R 35D 39I) to (31R 35D 34I) in three days, especially just after the democratic convention, seems a bit odd. Does anyone know if CBS weighs for party id?
Also, despite Obama's backing among previous Clinton supporters going up by 11 points (58% to 69%) Obama's support among all democrats fell by 4 points. Strange.
Outlier
Definitely a strange poll result. No other poll is this close. Oh well, after 9/15 and the convention dust settles I think the polling data will be more meaningful. Right now it's changing by the hour.
Ms. Palin should be a bit careful when denigrating 'community organizers'. Those words might come back to bite her in the posterior.
I don't think many Christians would like for Jesus of Nazareth, Saint Paul and Saint Peter to be denigrated. You could call them community organizers, as they organized the early Christian communities in the Roman Empire.
I don't think many Christians and Jews would like for Moses and Aaron to be denigrated. You could call them community organizers, as they organized the Israelite community under the Pharaohs, then led that community out of Egypt.
Good God guys, it really is a ticket of Dumb and Dumber.
Check this out:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/04/palin-attended-5-colleges_n_124036.html
So let's see here, we have one guy who finishes 894 out of 899 in his class, while his trophy VP pick finished her BA in 6 years from 5 colleges and her grades won't be released. Her degree is from the University of Idaho (which for those of you scoring at home, is the size of a decent junior college). Yikes.
Biden graduated in 4 years from the University of Delaware and received his JD from Syracuse. Then you have Obama, who went to Columbia and then Harvard and graduated Magna Cum Laude. Yeah, what an elitist! What a smarty pants, uppity snob. Who does he think he is?
So to reiterate, we have two people with highly suspect education credentials on one side and two people who have graduate degrees on the other. HMMMMM.
What do 42% of the good people of this nation say?
"Yup, we want the dumb ones running the country!!"
Only Rasmussen weights by party ID (otherwise the party ID would have hardly changed in this poll). Polls like this weight by demographics (age, sex, and geography).
I would possibly credit the clearly odd results to the fact that the first day of this poll was Labor Day. It makes no sense to poll during holidays, as if polling mid-convention makes a lot of sense.
mike in md wrote:
"Ms. Palin should be a bit careful when denigrating 'community organizers'. Those words might come back to bite her in the posterior.
I don't think many Christians would like for Jesus of Nazareth, Saint Paul and Saint Peter to be denigrated. You could call them community organizers, as they organized the early Christian communities in the Roman Empire.
'
wow, that's a stretch.
Tybo:
That is a stretch but the job of a community organizer is hard and it sounds easy by title but it really isn't. I'm not saying being a community organizer=qualifications for being president or VP, but I am saying that her blatant attack at a very admirable job that is hard to do for little pay isn't exactly respectable.
Yeah, like being a part-time mayor of a city of 5,000 is some kind of primer for the VP role. Someone needs to beat her down publicly - I'm thinking Hillary.
The National Enquirer (I know) is reporting that Palin had an affair a few years back.....
Well, they did break the Edwards baby mama drama.
-------------------------------------------
In other real news, Palin might need to hire some more lawyers.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/another-investi.html
The GOP candidate for vice president, Gov. Sarah Palin, may be facing yet another ethics investigation back in her home state of Alaska. An ethics complaint obtained by NBC News was filed Wednesday by the police officers union in Alaska, requesting a probe into possible wrongdoing by the governor or her office. It was brought on behalf of state trooper Mike Wooten, an ex-brother-in-law of Palin who is at the center of the "Troopergate" scandal.
The complaint alleges that the governor or her staff may have have improperly disclosed information from Wooten's personnel records. The complaint alleges "criminal penalties may apply."
John Cyr, director of the union that filed the complaint, told NBC News, "It seems obvious to us somebody has improperly accessed [Wooten's] personnel file."
Palin fired up the Democratic base for sure.
It has been quoted that the Obama campaign raised $8 million since her speech last night from over 130,000 donors - on pace to hit $10 million by the time John McCain hits the stage tonight.
I see this as somewhat of a confirmation that there was minimal cross-over appeal to the rhetoric of Palin's speech. If this fires up Obama supporters to this extent, it suggests that it was broadly seen as the type of politics that Democrats generally reject far more often than Republicans do. I would imagine that swing voters that don't respond to baseless rhetoric will have a similar reaction.
I was one of the Obama donors. 25$ baby!
Bramster -
Yup, that is what should scare the living daylights out of repubs. Obama didn't even really try to get that, people just saw him being lied about and attacked unfairly and donated - in the words of tricky dick - BIG TIME!
Guess what would happen if he really tried to get all his supporters to donate?
If he got $10 mill in 24 hours......wow....
the Obama thing isn't live?
I'm already skeptical.
@Brutus1/TheVoice99 and every other ID that you have used that has been banned.
Read me carefully. If you really care about your candidate, you will cut out the extreme leftist loony crap that you post, cross-post and then post again.
Simply put, just like Palin enrages the left, you enrage the right, and just like Palin distances the middle from her, you distance the middle from your views.
What you do, and how you do it is damaging to your cause.
Use your sense and be rational. Being a screaming lunatic doesn't work. Get a f$&king clue!
Anybody know how many people watch the debates on average?
How long is the interview with Obama going to be?
Robi...
community organizers is a resume item for bored college students who don't want a real job.
I didn't mean that as any insult to you... it's just my experience
Tybo:
Not really but whatever you say. When you hear about what he has tried to do and has done in Chicago as an community organizer, it is moving and he has used that experience as how to change government from the ground up (yes that is part of a campaign stance).
He wrote his first book as a response to people asking him to write a book because he was the first black president of the harvard law review. It's not a campaign book cause it was written in 1995 and it is a wonderful book and tells a lot about him and his life thus far.
A part in the book that was very revealing to me was the community organizing part and that's why I feel strongly about it.
I'm watching the O'reilly factor (for the first time in a LONG time and now I remember why) and the bastard is milking the interview over the week. I don't want to have to watch this show more than once...shit...
Cutting people off and talking over them doesn't make you more right. This has always been O'Reilly's style.
Obama handled him well though. This interview being segmented into mini interviews is stupid.
Actually, the AP has reported "Palin switched colleges 6 times in 6 years."
1. An "iffy" at University of Hawaii at Hilo. I do not even know why they included it since there is no record. Note: Sarah graduated HS in 1982 after she helped her team win the Alaska small-school basketball championship
2. Fall 1982 Hawaii Pacific University, Honolulu HI
3. Spring 1983/Fall 1983 North Idaho College, Couer d'Alene ID
*Interlude-- In 1984, Palin won the Miss Wasilla Pageant, then finished second in the Miss Alaska pageant.... and she won a college scholarship!!!
4. Fall 1984/Spring 1985 University of Idaho, Moscow ID
5. Fall 1985 Matanuska-Susitna College, Palmer AK
6. Spring 1986, Fall 1986, Spring 1987 University of Idaho
I see she attended 9 semesters in five years missing only the Spring semester 1984 (Miss Alaska?). The typical four-year degree requires 8 semesters.
What's the big deal? Why was this presented as a problem? (Keith Olbermann announced it as breaking news on MSNBC.)
P.S. University of Idaho can hardly be equated to a junior college. UI is a land-grant college (established 1889) when Idaho was still a territory. And because it is a land-grant, UI has a large campus.
KipTin:
Let me be on the record to say:
MSNBC is liberal I know.
I don't care about this story either.
Guys, I just wonder, Did you notice the difference in party ID between the poll taken over the weekend by CBS and today's poll by CBS?
Here it is:
Poll over the weekend:
*Weighted/743 Registered Voters
Total Republicans
229 (31%)
Total Democrats
308 (41%)
Total Independents
337 (45%)
Guys...can we do the Math please? 31% + 41% + 45% = 117%. Is that even possible? This poll gives Obama, the democratic nominee an edge of 10% of party ID, in addition of extra 17% of the Independent voters, who in this poll preferred him.
Today's poll:
*Weigthed/691 Registered Voters:
Total Republicans
215 (31%)
Total Democrats
241 (35%)
Total Independents
235 (34%)
All of a sudden, CBS gives the democrats a 4% party ID, a 6% decrease in just a couple of days. In addition of having a total of 100% instead of 117% in the other poll.
Bottom line: I think they are trying to manipulate the numbers so they can make the horse race as tight as they want, overnight if it pleases them. If the want to make Obama look good, the only thing they need to do is poll more Democrats. If they want to make Obama look bad, the only thing they have to do is reduce the number of democrats.
Do you think that it is pure coincidence that Obama went down from 48% to 42%, a 6% loss when the party ID gap was reduced by 6% from the previous poll. This poll had a 6% reduction in democratic representation, and the democratic nominee lost 6% of support. Do you think that it is a coincidence? Well, time will tell.
The fact that the over the weekend poll had a total of 117% is really odd.
What's going on in here? I'm getting bored with the convention. Poor McCain, he's not going to be able to rock the house like Super Sarah. He put himself in a pickle with his selection. The old guys Biden and McCain will probably get 20s ratings, while the rockstars got 30s ratings.
Barack Obama is too liberal oriented to understand the use of power. When he said that he would never ever use nuclear weapons regardless of the reason, I knew that I could never vote for him. When you make irresponsible comments like that, you invite disaster. An example; a country like Iran could send someone over here with a backpack nuke and possible kill hundreds of thousands of people. They wouldn't fear a nuclear response from an Obama admin. They would definitely use a nuke on Israel if they didn't fear nuke destruction from the US.You have to have someone in the oval office that has the temperament to pull the nuke trigger should there be a need. The main job of the president isn't pushing social programs. The office was created to have someone to preside over defense and deal with foreign countries. Its right there in the constitution.
Player:
My turning point was his saying he didn't support the war when everybody else did, Biden, Clinton included. I know he didn't have a crystal ball to magically know how it was going to turn out. I think he is just a radical anti-war nut that is ideologically unable to defend this country.
Welcome to the Fox News forum!
Robi:
Who are you? You just appeared on this site a few days ago. We've been posting here since January. I personally supported Hillary since then and now McCain.
Your Rush and Fox News hatred is not in the mainstream because Rush and Fox News are #1.
Player: We will never be nuked by Iran. Ever. You know why? The only reason these 3rd world countries create nuclear weapons is so that they get noticed - and [ideally] involved - by other countries. They want to be involved economically with first-world countries like the U.S. That being said, they don't want the U.S. to invade them and destroy whatever government they have set up. My point is, if they actually USED the nuclear weapons, they would never be politically accepted by first-world countries, and therefore would not be able to trade with them. If they nuked the sh*t out of us, the U.S. would never agree to allowing trade between our countries. You must think over WHY they want nuclear power before you just assume that they want to do nothing except kill thousands of people for the heck of it. I know that this is a bad system, but nuking them will not make them respond in a good way. This is just going to provoke said nuclear attack.
Interesting result! Sampling size looks small though. I think we need to wait until the weekend to see conventions' effects.
Posted on September 4, 2008 4:57 PM