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US: McCain 45, Obama 43 (Economist-9/15-16)

Topics: PHome

Economist /
YouGov-Polimetrix
9/15-16/08; 1,000 Adults, 4%
Mode: Internet

National
McCain 45, Obama 43
(9/7: Obama 41, McCain 40)

 

Comments
AmericaFirst:

Why do they even post these internet polls?

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Rippleeffect:

Wait... an internet poll that's +McCain?

Of course its still tied due to moe, but woah...

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1magine:

Wow - the Economist has JM ahead nationally. Well, I just had to spit out my Latte, stop hugging my tree, drop my communist manifesto and cry. Or...maybe not.

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IndependentThinker:

Try again ...
Can you spell "OUTLIER"
Internet polls don't cost a dime!

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jamesia:

The poll shows a tie, which is reasonable (I guess?). Still, internet polls should not be given any kind of validity.

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Stillow:

These polls are all over the place, state polls showing oppositte results, nationals split.....what hte heck is going on with polling.....its a mess right now...don't know what to think at this point.

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change:

well, the last time we had internet polls they were from zogby and they went against the most reputable polling brands such as survey usa. so i think its safe to say..the economist is off

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NW Patrick:

8 of the last 10 national polls show a swing to Obama. This poll, is it really internet based?

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boomshak:

OMG, OMG, OMG! The tide is turning back! The fact that Obama violated the Logan Act is finally hitting the fan.

Rasmussen has McCain ties and now this McCain +1.

Wow, Obama is finished!

Best poll ever!

Lol.

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boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

Admit it, your guy is toast. The Obama surge is officially over!

Um, are you telling me you miss the little 10 point weighting average those other MSM polls give you? It's, ok, cry it all out, we understand.

Lol.

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boomshak:

Guys, face it. It's a close race and no one is gonna run away with this one. Like a close football game with lots of points, last guy to score wins.

Enjoy it and don't get ur panties in a twist.

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IndependentThinker:

@boomshak

Seriously what are you talking about?
You're either looking for attention or drunk

Did you read the Posting button before hitting it?
It's clear saying : "Post an intelligent and civil comment "

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Tybo:

"Can you spell "OUTLIER"


IGNORANCE!
please learn what outlier means..

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s.b.:

The best way to judge movement in a poll is to compare it to itself. Sure you can criticize internet polls, but compare it to itself, with the same methodology. Assume weighting hasn't changed as it has in the NYT?CBS poll to favour Democrats. John McCain has gained 5 points in this poll since 09/07. That's interesting to say the least.

Obama has seemed to have gained ground in the past couple of days, but where? In a tight race this matters. Did he gain in Illinois and NY? Both places that have shown his numbers down but won't make a difference in the Electoral college.

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douglasfactors:

boomshak:

You realize, of course, that the Rasmussen tie reflects movement in Obama's favor.

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KipTin:

The "mode" is Internet and it is irrelvant because of why? This is not like the McCafferty question or the Lou Dobbs poll on CNN.

And it is not too old or stale? Or is it? (Another Obamanation complaint.)

And it has 1000 participants. So the sample is not too small right? Or maybe you do not like the sampling error? Because at 4% it actually could mean Obama is ahead by two points instead of McCain.

Obamanation probably never noticed that I do not discard or diss any poll, because then I would have to eat crow when the poll shows favor for my preferred candidate. How does crow taste? (I read no Obamanation complaints when Obama was in the lead.) Do the feathers tickle your throat?

BTW: This poll is a statistical tie as was the previous week's poll.

And it ain't NO "outlier." An outlier would have to be atypical and this poll in fact is typical of the other national polls. I have come up with a "semantricks" which describes people who without basis in fact or definition cry "outlier"... I think they should be labeled "outliars."

Semantricks: A dictionary of words you thought you knew by Lewis M. Gediman et al.

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zotz:

Boomshak-
"OMG, OMG, OMG! The tide is turning back! The fact that Obama violated the Logan Act is finally hitting the fan."

It is posts like this that gives you the hysterical label. Nobody cares about the Logan Act except for a few Rep wingnuts.


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boomshak:

@zotz:

You know, they say it takes higher intelligence to get irony and I'm thinking that's why you missed my humor.

I was doing an impersonation of the way you Obamanauts act everytime some incredibly biased MSM poll comes out showing your guy ahead.

Geesh, too funny.

P.S., I put not faith in Internet Polls.

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HaloFan:

why is mccain and paylin in IA?

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zotz:

Ok, It sounded like the normal Boomshak to me!

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Justin:

@KipTin

I think most people around here have dismissed internet polling regardless of the results. You can argue that these polls should not be dismissed, but I don't think there's a lot of bias in this discussion.

This same poll had Obama up on 9/7 when McCain was ahead pretty much everywhere else. Zogby has been all over the place as well.

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YouGov/Polimetrix (the pollster used here) has an interesting (unique?) way by which they draw their sample. First, they draw a registration-based sample (RBS). The accuracy of the RBS is as good as the registration files they are working from, and it is likely these files are at least a little stale. Next, they use an algorithm to find a closest match of each sampled registered voter to their pool of persons who have signed up to do their internet polls. The potential for bias again enters into the system on the matching algorithm and the fact that this is an internet poll (think: how many people would answer that they never use the internet?).

Personally, I'm a little skeptical about the accuracy of the YouGov/Polimetrix method (Stanford Professor and company founder Doug Rivers will be upset at me for saying that publicly), but I'm also all for innovation. Still, until proven to be a reliable method I'm more interested in this method as a tool to do experiments, such as showing participants a video and measuring their reaction.

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IndependentThinker:

@Tybo

Ladies and gentlemen, fellow citizens this is what Mr. Tybo posted previously
Tybo:

"Can you spell "OUTLIER"


IGNORANCE!
please learn what outlier means..

Me:
OUTLIER means A value far from most others in a set of data:
Example: Outliers make statistical analyses difficult" (Harvey Motulsky).
Link: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/OUTLIER

In this specific case "set of data" refers to all other recent polls that give Obama the lead

Now who is ignorant ??
Please think twice before slamming other people

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

zotz:

Nobody cares about the Logan Act?

If Obama tried to delay troop withdrawals from Iraq until after the election, then he is at least a hypocrite, and possibly much worse. Do you really think nobody cares that further lives may have been lost if he had succeeded in getting the Iraqis to insist on a delay? No sane person loves their candidate so much that they would vote for a traitor.

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HaloFan:

Question??

Shouldn’t internet polls side more with younger folks = democrats.

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kerrchdavis:

@Halo

I always thought so too but I'm sure there are other factors involved. The last couple internet polls have not shown the surge that has been registered by phone polls for Obama.

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Xenobion:

"Charlie, what do you mean by the Logan Act?" Is probably the popular phrase you are going to hear in most of America

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vikingviolinist:

This is an internet poll from one of Europe's most right-wing periodicals. Of course it plus a few points for McCain.

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zotz:

NeverMetAnHonestLib-
You just made my point... I mean about the wingnuts.

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player:

This poll gives democrats an eleven point sample margin over the republicans. It even gives the indep a four point margin over the reps. Yet, McCain is still in front. This poll seems solid.

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HaloFan:

Could it be the Bradley effect?
Phones are more personal then computers. Just wondering.

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carl29:

Gallup is out: Obama 48% McCain 44%

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player:

@HaloFan:
Michael Steele said that when he was running for governor of maryland, white people were telling him that were going to vote for him; the polls showed as much. However, they didn't and he lost. That is an example of the Bradley effect.

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IndependentThinker:

@HaloFan

Assuming I'm a pollster and I call you and ask you which one you are likely to vote for:
And you say McCain, why you might be lying to me?
Does that mean McCain is so dumb that it doesn't make sense to vote for him
One of your reasons might be because he has a compelling biography and has more Washington experience, not necessarily because of his color of your skin
By the way the Bradley thing was 22 or 24 years ago, do you really think your country is still the same as it was 25 years ago ??

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serpounce:

I'm guessing that "adults" means that they might not even be registered voters? I suppose in a few election cycles if these internet polls match up with traditional polling and actual results I might start to believe them, but they seem to be outliers more often than not recently.

Any idea why they seem to lean towards McCain though? That seems counterintuitive.

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carl29:

Guys, McCain supporters, don't get all fuzzy. The elections are not being held today. Follow your inner trust. If you think that those polls are the living proof that Obama is doomed, Celebrate!!! Perception translate into reality in people's minds.

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Dan:

YouGov has been polling in the UK for some time. There was initially a great deal of scepticism regarding their methodology, but their track record is pretty impressive - in the 2005 general election and the London election this year, they ended up consistently closer to the actual result than their rivals.

I appreciate they have relatively little experience in the US, and it may be their approach either has to be modified further or (for some reason) isn't appropriate to the US at all, but I don't think it's right to casually dismiss them.

Dan

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player:

The best way to explain the Bradley effect is this way. You have been riding the wave of campaign hype during the election season. You go to polls. When you get by yourself in the booth, you get serious and the campaign noise goes away. You blend with your true self for a moment and make a choice. A lot of times it turns out to be a different choice than what you had at the beginning. No one knows but you.

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IndependentThinker:

@player

I understand your illustration about the Bradley effect
But I have a straight question for you :
what's the ratio Black/White people who has voted for Obama in the primaries?
If he's the nominee that's because they ended up voting for him regardless the color of his skin otherwise we wouldn't be talking about him right now, instead we'd be talking about Hillary Clinton
Nonetheless, I still think they are a bunch of people who will end up not voting for him but nobody knows upfront the percentage, it's very likely that will be compensated with the percentage of people (including republicans) who are reluctant to voting for a 72-year-old candidate who survived cancer 4 times and + another percentage who is not willing to vote for a chick in a ticket even as vp
According to polls, this percentage is higher
Anyway, nobody knows for sure about this election outcome that's why it is so interesting and exiting

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