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US: McCain 48, Obama 45 (ARG-9/13-15)

Topics: PHome

American Research Group
9/13-15/08; 1,200 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
McCain 48, Obama 45
(9/8: Obama 47, McCain 46)

 

Comments
serpounce:

It's nice to get these polls to back up previous tracking numbers, but that's really they're only use. This shows McCain up 3% during a period where the tracking polls showed him up about the same. It doesn't tell us much about current trends.

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Tybo:

serpounce, the poll went thru yesterday. It could not be more relevent.

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vmval1:

Obama up by 4 in the golden standard of polls. Daily Kos.

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carl29:

On the same page with what other pollsters, Rasmussen and Gallup, were showing during those days.

The only curious thing is that I find in this poll are the Independent voters. According to this poll, Obama's INCREASED his lead among independents, from 45% after Dem. convention to 49% after Rep. convention. Can we believe that McCain's numbers among independents did not move from where they were before the Rep. convention? Weren't there quite a few pollsters claiming the exact opposite? Wasn't McCain winning by big margins among Ind. I don't know, but the next demographic breakdown from Gallup will be interesting to look at.

*Fine numbers, although I'm still skeptical about those Independents.

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douglasfactors:

ARGH!

In other news, McCain lost another point in Rasmussen and Obama's lead is up to 4 in Research 2000. We'll see what Gallup and Hotline have to say.

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Unbiased08:

The party support numbers are completely opposite from what other polls are showing. According to ARG, Obama's support among Dems has gone down 13 points, while most other polls show Obama has improved between 5-10 points among Dems.

Also, tied among women.....Never seen that in any other poll.

Otherwise the internals look normal. I think if you normalize the out-of-sync internal numbers it's about a tie game.

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carl29:

Unbiased08, what do you think about those Independents? Do you really think that Obama is winning Indi by 6%? I mean, that would be fantastic for him because at the end of the day, Independents will be the kingmakers. In 2004, Kerry and Bush split the Indi vote, 49 Kerry vs. 48 Bush. Remember that Kerry lost that election by 2%.

To be honest, I have my doubts, based on what we've heard from other pollsters. However, things can change rapidly. So far, I am not buying it.

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Whitetower:

ARG doesn't release their crosstabs so it's difficult to assess its validity. How many women were among the respondents? How many Republicans? Latinos? Voters over 30 years old? No answer.

(Any poll having more than 15% of respondents under 30, for example, is simply invalid in my book.)

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serpounce:

Tybo, yes, making about as relevant as yesterday's tracking polls. If it said something very different from those polls then it might mean something, but this result just solidifies my notion that McCain has been up by a few pts nationally over the weekend.

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KipTin:

Best to directly compare ARG with itself. The swing of 4 points to McCain is significant over a week. Will be looking for next week's ARG poll to see if there is a trend.

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Snowspinner:

Certainly up by three is a tough result to believe in the last three days, given that Rasmussen and Kos have showed McCain losing significant ground in those three days, Diageo has shown him losing small ground, and Gallup has held steady. This significantly outperforms all the tracking polls for the period, as well as other national polls coming out presently.

Doesn't mean it's wrong - just means it's disagreeing with the bulk of data. Only one pollster showed an Obama win in Iowa too, and she was right.

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KipTin:

Rasmussen has not shown "significant" losses for McCain. Quit making stuff up. Read the Rasmussen narrative for some reasonable perspective on how to read their polls:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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faithhopelove:

The internals of this poll show clearly why it finds Obama down by 3 points. It finds him running even with McCain among women, and it finds him winning only 75% of Democrats. If on election day Obama runs even with McCain among women and wins only 75% of Democrats, then he will surely lose by at least 3%.

That "If" is a big one.

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apologist42:

Political Wire reporting tomorrow's ARG polls will show Obama:

up by 7 in NM
within 4 in WV
within 2 in MT

That along with Obama "in a very good position" in the PPP Virginia poll.

It was a good run, Johnny.

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boomshak:

serpounce,

The BIG thing thse polls all tell us is this. Obama is stuck in the 45-47 range everywhere you look.

Rasmussen, Gallup, Hotline (yuck) and now this poll.

That is VERY bad news for Obama at this point. When McCain loses points, they aren't going to Obama, but to undecided, probably because they want to know more about Palin before deciding.

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boomshak:

People, can we agree to ignore the DailyKos Poll? Their daily sample is only 360 with a margin of error of +5. They also only sample 26% Republicans.

I mean come on. Of what use is a poll with a +5 margin of error 6 weeks out from an election?

Pointless, ignore them.

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