Pollster.com

This poll, along with the still tight Rasmussen, makes the Gallup polls showing a McCain lead seem more and more like outliers. Increasingly it looks like a tied race, not a McCain advantage race. Which is what you'd expect after the GOP convention.

I expect Obama will be ahead by week's end by about 2 points, and will never really lose that.

CNN really likes ties..............

Wait, I thought McCain was supposed to get a 20 point bounce from the convention and the pick of "Stupid Sarah".

Oh well.

@n'obmaites

listen babes, you cant pick and choose yur little pollies.

zogby was the first to show the swing to mccain and he's YOUR BABY!!!

i make no predictions...
just swallow the numbers and sit still. you might get your moment again. but dont look like a pack of morons hanging on this or that polls.\\

WISCONSIN>>>!!! you go girl...

and how come no one answered my question: who wrote obama's harvard rec and paid his entire way??

if yo believe michelle's BS about they're having only recently paid of their loans it's because it was a gigantic smoke screen to head the press off from the truth.

oh, robi likes links. forgot. i'll give you little hints how to google it as the day goes on.

Hi Stillow

McCain has had a 3 point convention bounce with Rasmussen, a 7 point bounce with Gallup and a no point bounce with CNN! Gallup's latest tracker out in an hour and hopefully later today Ras will release 5 battleground states.

The problem with CNN polls are no crosstabs, modeling, weighting nothing! So who knows?

@thoughtful

BUT you dont believe in Ras polls, thoughtful. you say so all the time.

@boskop

how's my favorite Libertarian?

I think these numbers are actually a little bit disappointing for McCain. We will know a lot more with the states polls being published today.

So i don't know what you are so happy about?

Soon people will realize that Sarah Palin is not a godess as they realized that Obama was not the messiah in August. People found Sarah Palin very successful up to now because expectations were low. Now Obama team is playing it right and raising the expectations from her. It is not good for her. Now everybody expects her to have a great answer to every question. Any gaffe (as she did today about FRM FNM) will hurt her image.

Probably we will see a 1-2 point Obama lead at the end of this week. It is going to be a very close race.

InTrade turned to a 7 point Obama lead again after a very short-lived McCain lead in the morning.

@Boskop

I can see enough of his apparent model and cross stabs and weighting where Rasmussen as pollster is coming from.

Nate Silver also rates him highly as a pollster allowing for his leanings and that's almost good enough for me.

@thoughtful

Heh how are they disappointing? McCain has had a 11 point turn around on Gallup, 48-40 for obama to 48-45 for mccain...Ras seems to alwyas be closer for some reason, who knows. I think McCain himself is probably surprised at the size of hig bounce....he is well positioned now.

Ona side note and off topic, I'd like to give a personal moment of silence for Olberman and Matthews getting the boot fro mthe anchor's desk.......... .....ok all done.

@thoughtful

we'll see.
but accept my apology for sounding like that awful creature voice99. my above post got too close to sounding like his/hers/its.

sometimes i write in the vernacular as you know by now and sometimes the complete opposite. it has to do with work i do.

best, though..

hope ras makes you happy,,, i dont he will.

@boskop:

I'll beat you to the punch:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Sutton_family_retracts_Obama_story.html

There was one - ONE - source for that story and now his family - likely responding on his behalf because he's senile and can't respond on his own - has said that what Sutton said on NY1 was inaccurate.

Also, most liberals also think Zogby's polls are crap. After his horrible showing in 2004 - predicting a big Kerry win - why would we believe anything his Internet polls find?

@thoughtful:

Rasmussen's personal politics certainly lean pretty far to the right. But his head-to-head polling is usually pretty good. He tends to weigh party ID more towards the GOP than any other pollsters but I also think those other pollsters have been overestimating Dem ID for a while. Ras currently has it at about a 7pt Dem advantage - sounds about right...and that may even be a little bit high.

Where Rasmussen's political leanings show are with his questions regarding issues and lifestyle. I don't pay much attention to these but I have looked at several of his polls re: drilling. The wording of the questions almost make them look like GOP-friendly push polls. But again, I don't have much of a problem with his head-to-head polling. More than any other poll, his daily tracker has shown remarkable stability in the race over the last several months, averaging over the course of that time about a 2pt Obama lead. That's probably where it's been the whole time and probably where it will head back to - at least until the debates - after the convention bounces wear off.

@thoughtful

make that a 13 point swing as gallup's new #'s 49-44.....anohter new watermark....he's gonna hit 50.

@OGliberal

now come on here...
obama had to muzzle him. donald warden, boby seale, huey newton, were his good buddies back then.

he says so in his book for crying out loud. they were all in cohoots with the arabs which is why we have cassius clay changing his name to ali. so this little riff of yours is a non starter.

that king abdullah's nephew subsidized obama makes al ot of sense.

obama has managed up till now to hide a lot, alot about the mysterious 'Frank' et all.

you fill in the blanks.

now, what someone does way in the past can sometimes be disocunted. but when you hide it and conflate it with errata you are telling me that "me think you doth protest tooo damn much,"

his 800,000 undisclosed cash infusion of campaign funds to ACORN for them to pad the voting registrations is also consistent with a man who still feels pretty black pantherish and ACORN-y to me.

you might also consider the fact that in the few months he was senator, ie a sitting in his seat senator he managed to run up four times the earmarks that hillary did. one third of them going to his wife's place of work.

this man is as oily a used car salesman as 'cousin eddie' who has to declare bankruptcy as you may recall.

@thoughtful

make that a 13 point swing as gallup's new #'s 49-44.....anohter new watermark....he's gonna hit 50.

OK has anybody done a real good analysis of the Diageo/Hotline crosstabs.

That's a tie today to at 44% each!

Their poll of the 18-29 though is under 10%. Maybe a bit to many Democratic as well. Be interested what the professional pollsters com up with.

Gallup tracker out shortly.

As I say after all this intensity the GOP should be polling better. Real clear has got every body excited by including the + 10% Mccain poll in their averages!

Well, it looks like the USA Today/Gallup poll may be a fluctuation. Can't dismiss it outright, but that result will need to be reproduced over the next several days.

@thoughtful

but whatif obama loses. eeez possible.
do we get incessant whining? do we get riots?

Stillow a bounce is a bounce and a swing is a swing. 49%-44%

It's a 6 point bounce from before the convention. and an 8 point bounce from his low 41 in the last 2 weeks.

It's a 5% swing from the start of the democratic convention. 45-45 see August 25th poll.

Today should be the top of the bounce!

@thoughtful: "Real clear has got every body excited by including the + 10% Mccain poll in their averages!" I don't have a problem with including that poll, but the averaging is so ridiculous...

@obamites especially thoughtful

mccain...Leads Obama 49%-44% in first results conducted fully after GOP convention
September 8, 2008 Daily tracking/gallup

:>}

@thoughtful

i'll bet ya a bag of salt mccain hits 50 very soon.....

@thoughful

you are sounding far too desperate.
relax. we had to suffer through obamite hubris far too long. at least give us a day of glory.

@thoughtful

i'll bet ya a bag of salt mccain hits 50 very soon.....

Pion

thank you for your thoughts they should have taken the other poll +5% made more sense

Most of the Libs are doing their brains in, Maybe Obama when he loses this should stand for Gov. Please those of little faith.

I still have Obama ahead, gosh this is gong to be a very busy day and night lots of state polls scheduled for today.

Stillow Boskop I am sincerely pleased that you are enjoying these moments!
I'm going fishin.

I knew I would find the libs over here where they have at least a pocket of air to gasp for. Don't breath too much. Leave some for others.

RCP is consistent in its averages. If possible, they use likely voters rather than registered voters and that put Obama far further ahead in earlier polls. Why change their methodology regarding McCain poll leads? It would be only to appease Obmanation?

KipTin - The LV/RV split is a tricky issue. There's strong evidence that using a LV screen too early skews results. I'd use RV until very close to the election, personally.

Are the LV screens based on the 2004 outcomes or the pollsters gut feel for turnout. If they are using 2004 for AA's isn't that way too conservative. I expect at least 75% of RV for AA's not the 55-60 that has been registered the last two cycles. 18-29 is anybodies guess but I would think that it will higher. Latino's are a wildcard and they also the key to Colorado and Nevada and maybe even Arizona (not likely). What do you guys think the Rasmussen likely voter model is doing?