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US: National Survey (ABC/Post 6/18-21)


ABC News / Washington Post
6/18-21/09; 1,001 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

(ABC story, results, Post story, results)

National

Obama Job Approval
65% Approve, 31% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 56% Approve, 41% Disapprove (chart)

State of the Country
47% Right Direction, 50% Wrong Track (chart)

Party ID
35% Democrat, 22% Republican, 37% Independent (chart)

 

Comments
Stillow:

The networks and big liberal papers won't be able to inflate his approval forever...any of you who think 64 is accurate, please come to my next garage sale....

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cjk002:

Oh boy, here we go again, the poll doesn't say what I like so it must be rigged. Funny how no one was claiming that with the polls that show a lower number...

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conspiracy:

Yes Fox is that famously liberal network. And Pew have been the best national pollster (along with Rasmussen, who I notice has moved back to Obama these last two days) the last two presidential elections. Obviously this one is probably a little high but that doesn't make it wrong just on the upper range of the scale. Go with the handy graph - 57-58 looks about right to me.

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Stillow:

Guys, its not really a big secret the networks are trying to prop him up....just watch there news coverage....its kinda obvious they are propping him up....heck ABC is giving him a free infomerical on his health plan....so its not really a big secret.............

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conspiracy:

It is called the "Bully Pulpit". He is the president. Naturally, the networks are covering him. They did with Bush and before him Clinton and Bush before that and Reagan...

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cjk002:

@stillow:

So among those organizations that is propping Obama up is... Fox? Attacking the pollster because you don't like the result is lame, and it damages your credibility when you don't make those same claims when the numbers are more to your liking.

Yes, Obama's numbers took a dip in the last 7-10 days, but Rasmussen and Gallup both show him gaining again. These monthly polls ended at different times during that period, so it makes sense that they show different numbers.

The only conclusion anyone can draw at this point is that the numbers are in flux, and that Obama has lost some support from independents and a few on the left. The public is becoming uneasy with where the economy is right now, and they are beginning to wonder whether the plans of the president are working.

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Stillow:

Your kidding right? Did you see how the media covered Reagan, Bush, Clinton and W? Compare that to Obama....its night and day. You have a small point, the networks did cover Bush, but it was all negative all the time. Bush could have given everyone a million bucks and the networks would have reported it as being bad for not being two million. The networks are clearly in the tank. NBC is almsot an arm of the Obama administration. ABC would never have give Bush or any republican a free infomerical to spew out rhetroic with out response from opposition. C'mon man, its not the coverage that is the issue, its the type of coverage....Bush got a short break fro mnegative coverage after 9/11, but the media soon went back to its anti Bush stance...The networks and cable stations are wall to wall liberal commentators and analysts. Fox for all its rap has plenty of libs and conservatives on there....the ratio of left leaning v right leaning on everything but Fox is 5 to 1 at best.

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Stillow:

@cjk002

I do not dismiss the polls, but like you guys repeatedly pint out Ras's bias, I simply point out the bias of the netwoks. When bias is clear in a group or a polling outfit, its totally fair to point out that bias. To ignore the bias and accept the results as valid would be irresponsible. I consider the networks, abc, cbs and nbc to be extremely bias in favor of Obama....so those polls must be viewed in that context....sort of the same way you guys routinely knock down Ras's polls for being bias i nthe toehr direction...which again is valid to point out when figuring out what the #'s mean.....bias is part of the game....it always has been.

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cjk002:

I don't knock down Rasmussen, I take it in context, and I don't complain when Rasmussen shows numbers I don't like. Rasmussen's numbers are different because it's methodolgy is different. The fact that I used Rasmussen as an example in my last comment shows that I don't discount it.

You claim bias in these polls but never provide any evidence, other than the fact that you don't like them. If these polls were biased, then why do they generally mirror most of the other polls that come from organizations other than the ones you claim are biased, including Fox?

Until you provide some concrete evidence that ABC, CNN, CBS, The Wall Street Journal, Fox, and The New York Times are all pourposely inflating numbers, then all you're doing is making excuses for why the numbers don't show that more people agree with you.

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conspiracy:

Again, if the polling arm of NBC is trying to prop Obama up it isn't doing a very good job - they have lower numbers than most.

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Stillow:

@cjk002

Again, are you kidding? The networks are clearly bias, every poll I have ever seen says people think the networks have a liberal bias...I think it was a Pew poll, ya know the ones you guys love and claim are non partisan said the negative coverage of McCain vs. Obama was slanted 3 to 1 if I recall correctly. Look how they covered Sarah Palin....typically children of candidates are left alone, but her kids were drug thru the mud over and over....so I mean simply by watching the networks you can see the bias....if you can honestly tell me you do not feel the networks are biased, then we are at a standstill in this discussion. To me its clear as day the networks are bias and have been for years.

Those of us who watch these polls on a daily basis need to realize every pollster has a level of right or left wing bias....and yes they pad the numbers in one direction or another. Its all part of the game.

For every 1 conservative you can name me workign at nbc, cbs or abc I can name you 5 liberals. Even Fox has a heafty cast of left wingers on all day long...so come on man, you have to aknowledge a bias in thsese entities and the polls are to be viewed in that context. Its part of the game we all play, me as a righty will try to explain away high numbers and you guys as lefties will try to validate high numbers...and vice versa.

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cjk002:

@Stillow:

What you gave me was the results of polling that shows that people think the media is biased, what you did not give me was proof that people at these organizations are sitting in a room somewhere inflating numbers.

Fox has no liberals in its lineup, while MSNBC and CNN do. If you think that Fox is anything but a right-wing network that intentionally tries to spin facts you're just fooling yourself. The fact that they are what they are and yet their polling still shows high approval numbers for Obama should tell you something.

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Stillow:

@cjk002

Your right, its my "perception" that liberal media groups like the networks will sway midly or greatly there polling numbers. Its difficult for people not to let there personal politics sway things like that. The networks clearly are bias so its my beelief they would probably be more likely than not to pump some of there numbers.

Fox probably leans right, but have you ever watched Sheppard Smith? Jerlado? Colmes? Juan Williams> And a whole slew of other libs are on there all day long....there two primetime guys, hannity is a total conservative, but oreilly gets hit from all sides all the time....tough to call him partisan either way since he is loved an hated by both sides. But I can't name maybe but one conservative on nbc, buchanan..........abc......cbs..........tough to name even one or two.

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cjk002:

Please, a whole "other slew?" Give me a break.

But that's not the point of this conversation. The polls for all of these organizations are conducted by independent organizations who for the most part are completely transparent in their methodology, and no one has ever shown them to be intentionally fudging numbers. My point is this: you can't call organizations biased when you don't like their results and then pull a 180 when you like them. It's hypocrisy.

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Stillow:

@cjk002

You have missed my entire point. All of them are biased and polls are to viewed in that context. Your sitting there telling me the networks are not biased and woudl never fudge there numbers to support there guy....do you realize how silly that looks? Just as you said you view ras polls in context,so must all others. Liberals have a hard time admitting the networks are biased, but its totally obvious to anyone who isn't a lock in step liberal. So just as there coverage is biased, so will there polls be probably. Its all about context...that is why none of us get to excited about one poll, its the trend that you look at. You can only fudge an d pump so much...they have to maintain a legit look, even the right leaning pollsters like ras do it. That is why trends are important...look at the pollster.com trend line for indy's, its getting wrse for obama, not better.

Beckell, van susteran, liason....would you lik more libs to be named who are on fox all day? I've been sitting here and I still cannot think of a conservative other than buchanan on nbc....sometimes I think libs think fox is so bias because they are so used to all the other media being so left, anything that puts out a balance of leans right, it is the one who is bias....its actually funny since you can name liberal after liberal who appear on fox each day....where nbc is busy talking about tingles up ther legs...and the guy with the tingle has the show called Hardball? Its just funny at this point.

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cjk002:

Please look through my comments above. I never said anything about whether news organizations are biased, other than Fox. You were the one who brought that into the conversation.

You are attempting to push your perception of bias on the networks onto the polls they commission. I'm saying that there is no evidence of that. In fact, the poll results show otherwise. You act as if the networks have their reporters sitting at their desks making the call to voters themselves, when in fact they are conducted by outside organizations.

Greta Van Suteren is not a liberal, if you think she is, then that just goes to show how skewed to the right your perceptions are. Giving Bob Beckel 5 minutes every day where he is pummeled by the conservative who is hosting whatever show he is a guest on doesn't balance out the rightward editorial slant of the entire channel. But once again, THAT IS NOT THE SUBJECT OF THE CONVERSATION. This isn't about how biased you think the media is, this is about whether or not the polls they release are biased, and again, you've provided no evidence of that.

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TJ:

The real comedy here is those of you ignoring the internals. Clearly everyone here must have some interest in polling, and yet week in and week out, people want to play this game of ignoring the facts which skew these results.

The two most reputable and accurate pollsters out there for the past several cycles, Pew and Rass have shown Democrats having a party ID advantage of 6-9 points over the GOP.

This ABC poll, like the CBS joke fest are showing samples of Dems +13 and Dems +14.

Want to know who to take seriously? Look at how CBS and ABC or any big network polls favored the last cycle. Dead LAST.

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cjk002:

@TJ:

Maybe you should read the comments a little more closely. I pointed out that the reason that Rasmussen shows lower numbers is because their methodology is different. ABC/CBS show higher numbers because their party ID is different from Rasmussen. Rasmussen decides for itelf what the party ID should be, while other organizations like Gallup simply goes with what it's respondents tell them. To me, weighting responses is a little suspect, but I don't complain about, I take it at face value and put it in the context of the other polls available.

To claim that anyone is intentionally moving numbers around is ridiculous when there is no evidence to support it. ABC and CBS's polls are no more of a joke than the Fox news poll is, since it showed similar numbers. What is important is the trend, not what an individual poll says.

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Stillow:

@cjk002

Ok, I'll play, you win. I wish to retract all my previous statements. I want it known that the networks, NBC, ABC and CBS are all fine upstnding news groups who are not biased in any way, although they employ vast numbers of liberals vs conservatives, they would never skew the news coverage to reflect that...nor woudl they ever skew poll results to help push there ideaology. It was my error, I apologizze. The networks are clearly not bias in any way and thy put forth the absolute best non partisan coverage of current events. Bias only exists on that evil right wing network Fox, I would like to officially call for a boycott of Fox....only fro mthe networks do we get real non partisan, fair and balanced news coverage.....and polls from the networks should be beleived no matter what. They would never fudge the numbers like that right wing crackpot Rasmussen does................

I stand corrected!

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cjk002:

@Stillow

You're still avoiding the subject of the conversation.

Claiming a media organization is biased is a completely seperate issue from whether or not the independent organizations that conduct polls for them is biased. Where is the evidence of that?

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Stillow:

@cjk002

I told you its perception and context. If a network has a clear bias towards an ideaology as the main 3 do....there news coverage reflects that and they would more likely than not, do what they can to present numbers that demonstrate and justify there bias coverage. ABC is not going to go on a liberal rant all day, putting forth pro obama rhetoric all day every day andthen release a poll showing his approval down in the dumper. You have ABC actively promoting Obama's health plan now, do you think they are goign to release a poll showing people do not like his plan? In my "opinion" they will use polls to help sway public opinion one way or another. So yes firms on btoh sides who express clear bias are likely to use there polling data to help validate that bias to the people. The networks know that when someone out there is o nthe fence about an issue and they release some poll show which lcaims majoirty support, the fence sitter will say to himself, well if everyone else likes it I guess I will too. This is simple stuff. I enjoy this back and forth with you, but you are unable or unwilling to first accept the networks have a liberal bias....because you cannot accept that, you are not able to accept they may use that bias to fudge numbers to help validate there point of view. Part of it is just human nature. Somtimes its subtle, it could be in the way a question is asked.

Example uestion: As you know, the GOP plan for reformign health care is unpopular, but would you support it over the plan put forth by President Obama....

So you can be very misleading with a question....a lot of pollsters start a question off with as you know, that right there tries to swayopinion before the question is even presented. So bias always comes out in poll results, left and right.

So as long as you think the networks offer unbias coverage, then I can see why you would blindly accept there polling results. Remember in the VA polling where Moran did his own poll showing him tied for the lead? When in actuality he got blown out....because he was bias and he skewed hi s polling to help boost the perception he was doing well...the networks are bias and will use polling data to help the perception that there liberal views are dominant. Do I have direct proof, no....but its not hard to connect the dots here.

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cjk002:

You're still avoiding the subject. Where is the evidence?


I'll repeat it once again: I never said anything about whether the media is biased, and I don't know why you keep claiming that I don't think there is bias. You are showing a pattern here though, you make conclusions about what I think with no evidence in much the same way as you conclude that polls are biased with no evidence.

As far as ABC, get over it. You have no idea what ABC's coverage is going to be like, and Fox has done programming from the white house in support of the war when Bush was president. Besides that, The vast majority of the public has been supportive of healthcare reform for decades, and ABC's poll shows what other polls are showing. That fact alone pretty much destroys your argument right there.

If you're admitting that there is no evidence to back up your claim, then maybe you should consider laying off trashing every poll you don't like and accusing people of impropriety.

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Stillow:

@cjk002

Also, polls which don't have elections to verify them are very easily skewed. Its easy to say 65 support Obama's health plan, without an election to verify, the pollster can claim whatever he wants...and when you have bias groups like the networks tryign to push an agenda, they will skew these types of opinion polls....because there is no way to prove or disprov there validity. Its much easier to accept election based poll results because they are able to be verified against the collected data. If ABC says obama will win by 25 and only wins by 8 then you know abc is smoking something....and you would not trust them i nthe future, but if abc says obama's approval is at 64, you cannot verify that data....that is why all polls shoudl be viewed in conext of who is doing them and which bias direction that pollster leans in, right or left.

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cjk002:

Again, where is your proof of that? You are just making assumptions based largely on your distaste with the results.

Polling has a 95% confidence level, it's a science that produces verifiable results that can be reproduced in other polls. It's one thing to say that one poll is way off base, but this website shows several polls saying the same thing.

How is it that every single poll shows the approval rating in the same range if they are so easily skewed?

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Stillow:

@cjk002

I am not avoding anything...I am tryign to explain to you that polls must be viewed in the context of who conducted the poll. ABC who has a left wing bias will present poll data supportive of that in opinion polling. Do I have proof, no, just common sense that says a liberal group is not going to release polls harmful to the liberal cause in most cases, unless there is an underlying gain to be made by doing so.
Your flaw is your accepting poll results as legit despite the bias by the pollster. Put them into context...if Rush Limabugh put out a poll saying Obama's approval is at 15....then you have to apply context to that result based on who is doin the polling. The same applies with a left leaning entity lik ABC.......I am not sure why you are not understanding this.

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Stillow:

@cjk002

Its a game man, its a game pollsters play. Pollsters often use there accurate election based polling to give validity to opinion based polling. rasmussen is often knocked for doing this, sinc ehe is very accurate on election based polling, then he takes slack for using that reputation to push his right wing agenda in opinion polling....that is why iI am telling you its a game and polls without electiosn to verify them must be vieewed in the context of who is doign the polling. There is no proof other than common sense. I gave you the Rush thing, what if Keith Olberman released a poll showing obama at 95 approval....again you must take into context the source of doing the poll....in my view abc is clearly a left wing news group and will use opinion polling to help move public opinion in the direction it wants it to go in....ras does it, etc....only election based polling can be verified......

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cjk002:

If Rush Limbaugh personally conducted a poll, then yes, it would be suspect. If reporters at ABC or Fox personally conducted polls, yes it would be suspect. But we both know that is not the case.

Nice strawman you built there, but you forgot to give it some legs to stand on.

I accept polls at face value, while understanding that the methodology in those polls will be different and therefore the results will be different. If I didn't do that, then I wouldn't ever visit this site.

I absolutely agree that polls should be viewed in the context of who conducted them. But what you seem to miss is that the news organizations DON'T CONDUCT THEM.

Polls should be evaluated by the organizations that are paid to conduct the polls, not by whether or not you think the media outlet who commisioned the poll is biased.

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Stillow:

@cjk002

Obviously we are not going to agree. Of course the rporters do not do the poll, but when you see an ABC poll, it is paid for by ABC....the pollster doign the actual polling will be sensitive to that fact. If you honeslty think bias entities do not fudge there opinion polling then that is just a brick wall we cannot pass. To me its a game, both sides are constantly positioning for public support and polls are a tool in there arsenol. You are trusting these groups to much....perhaps its our overlaying ideaologies at play....as a conservative I have a natural instinct to not trust the system or g'ment...as a liberal your more likely to trust the system is working and trust what the system produces as valid. We both agree context is important...so by that statement alone we both agree that certain pollsters will fudge the numbers, otherwise context would not need apply, but you agreed context is important, therefore aren't you accepting that pollsters will use sway to fudge the numbers? If we didn't apply context then we should assume all polls are accurate despite hte results. I understand your less likely to think groups like ABC would fudge numbers because you probably do not view them as bias as I do....but as a conservative I view the networks as incredibly biased, so when I view a poll by them my natural instinct is to beleive they fuged a little to try and make there case. Just as you view Fox being right wing, I veiw the networks as being left wing...so anything coming from them is immeidately suspect.

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conspiracy:

"The two most reputable and accurate pollsters out there for the past several cycles, Pew and Rass have shown Democrats having a party ID advantage of 6-9 points over the GOP."

Yes. And Pew says 61% approve. Clearly, ABC and CBS are too high. PPP is too low. Go with the average not a selection that fits your personal opinions.

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Stillow:

I still say you cannot use a pollsters election based polling accuracy to judge there opinion polling. They have to try and be accurate with elections because they are verified by an actual vote of the people. So to maintian credibility a pollster, D or R is more likely to give good numbers or at least the best numbers they can. Opinion polling is a whole different ball game...and the D and R pollsters use credibility they gained from election based polling to push opinion in certain directions. This has been done since polling began and it will always be done.

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conspiracy:

Nonsense. Why then do PPP have such a shitty number? Let me guess, reverse psychology!

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