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US: National Survey (ARG 6/18/21)


American Research Group
6/18-21/09; 1,100 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

(source)

National

Obama Job Approval
57% Approve, 41% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 89 / 10 (chart)
Reps: 21 / 78 (chart)
Inds: 47 / 48 (chart)
Economy: 48 / 46 (chart)

State of the country
Economy: 33% Getting better, 44% Getting worse (chart)

Party ID
41% Democrat, 31% Republican, 28% Independent (chart)

 

Comments
Stillow:

All these polls lately are showing him below 50 and upside down with Indy's....that is not a good sign to lose indy support so early. He needs to do soemthing to stop the slow bleeding of indy's....he can live wtihout GOP support, but he needs the indy's....

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conspiracy:

You are using an internet poll, PPP (which always has the lowest numbers) and the famously unreliable ARG. I think I'll go with the networks and Pew.

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conspiracy:

Don't get me wrong, the numbers are edging down (The drop in Gallup was indies, down from over 60 but only to a still strong 55%) but lets not get carried away with putting two much stock in a small number of cherry picked polls - lets take the entirety into account.

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kingsbridge77:

Conspiracy...


Is Gallup famously unreliable too? Gallup and ARG have Obama in the same spot.

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RussTC3:

I don't really like singling out specific pollsters, except Raspublican...errr...Rasmussen (R), but I'll bite on this one because of your noting the Independent number.

It's simple really: consider the source.

Check out their crazy swing over the last three surveys: +16 (July), +29 (June), +19 (April).

It's also incredibly hard for me to believe he went from +15 among Independents to -1 in just a month.

My same analysis goes for PPP (D), which showed an even more outrageously off-the-mark swing among Independents: +19 to -3.

Rasmussen (R), PPP (D) and ARG have been the most inaccurate pollsters of late, so I'm not surprised they're all so wrong lately. More respectable pollsters (like Pew for instance) showed no significant swing.

So in the end, I choose to look at the average, not individual polls and in that respect, President Obama's numbers are strong and steady.

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Stillow:

All pollsters...yes all of them have political biases....its obvious the big networks are propping Obama up...the drop in support from Indy's was easily predictable...since Obama policies routinely poll down in the low to mid 40's.....the approval numbers must eventually gravitate downward to match Obama's actual policies. That is why the trend of losing Indy support is accurate. I realize ABC poll still shows him high, but they are doing waht they can to try and maintain the perception of high numbers...even doing the free infomerical....NBC is practically run from the Oval Office these days....and CBS lost the last of its credibility back in 2004 for being unbias.
You guys cannot expect his numbers to stay high, when his policies poll so much lower. Now that the honeymoon period fades away, reality sets in and people start judging him by his actual policies.
So like you guys seem to want to dismiss ARG or Reasmussen, the rest of us easily dismiss the networks for clear bias......

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conspiracy:

Knightsbridge

I thought we were talking about indies vis a vis Gallup and ARG.

Stillow

The only one dismissing polls is you. Again, are Fox and the non-partisan Pew also propping Obama up? And NBC show lower numbers (56) so if they are propping they aren't doing a very good job.

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conspiracy:

Lol. Kingsbridge, apologies for getting your name wrong.

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Stillow:

@conspiracy

I don't dismiss the networks, I simply aknowledge they are clearly bias. Pew is not non partisan, there is no such thing as non partisan.....somewhere along the line people in these pollsters allow there personal politics to sway things, maybe its the way a question is asked, etc....non-partisan is a dumbed down figure to try and give extra credibility to soemthing.
Looking at all the polls there seems to me at least to be a very clear downward trend, most among Indy's....which is dangerous this early. Remember it was Indy's turning on Bush which killed him. You need more than just your party's support. But seriously, if you think his approval is up at 64, then I have a herd of unicorns I want to sell you.

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conspiracy:

Gallup is very accurate. Lol.

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

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conspiracy:

No, Stillow if you actually read what I wrote I said ABC is a little high. At the end of the day you believe what you want to believe but frankly the evidence isn't there at the moment for some clear downward trend - in some polls yes, not in most.

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conspiracy:

Incidentially, for those who aren't taking the totality of polling into account, ARG also had Obama at 57% in April. So, again, the true picture is one that shows average approval dropping below 60% for the first time at the end of last week with perhaps a small turnaround the last couple days.

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Stillow:

@conspiracy

I will accept that...at the end of the day we can all feel how we feel and can interprate the polls as we do....after all, polls are polls right? The only way to validate them is with a vote...

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cjk002:

@conspiracy:

If you look at the job approval chart and adjust it to more sensitive, you'll see exactly what you said is what actually happened in the trendline.

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IdahoMulato:

People shouldn't confuse job approval to favorability. His favorability ranges 60 -65 and job approval 57 - 59. That's not bad at all. Just listen to Glenn Beck & Hannity and they kinda confusing these numbers and spinning. Hannity was so excited that Obama numbers are trending down. When the numbers started going up, they've started spinning. These people should get a life.

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IdahoMulato:

Obama job approval jumped 5 pts courtesy Gallup. I think he's getting a bump for making the right calls in respect of the Iran election fallout.

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Stillow:

@IdahoMulato

LOL....hannity, a conservative commentator is spinning? No way, they do that? Wow, thanks for the news alert....liberal commentators never spin do they?

Geeeez man....that was grand!!

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Jeff081:

Fox is the only channel, and I mean only, that is giving an unbiased view of what's going on in the Obama administration. More and more democrats are turning to Fox, like I did during the "primaries" last year. After watching MSNBC from it's beginning as a "news" channel, I got fed up with the one-sided reporting of Obama over Clinton. Bullying people to come over and see things your way isn't going to work, it's only going to get people ticked off. And I switched to republican, voted for McCain. Not bad for a guy who's voted democrat since he was eighteen in 1972. Go Fox. Go republicans.

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