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US: National Survey (ABC/Post 2/4-8)

Topics: poll

ABC News / Washington Post
2/4-8/10; 1,004 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(ABC: story, results; Post: story, health care post, results)

National

Obama Job Approval
51% Approve, 46% Disapprove (chart)
Health Care: 43 / 53 (chart)
Economy: 45 / 53 (chart)
Federal Budget Deficit: 40 / 56
Creating jobs: 47 / 51
Terrorism: 56 / 39

Congressional Job Approvel
26% Approve, 71% Disapprove (chart)

Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by Congress and the Obama administration?
46% Support,49% Oppose (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 50 / 46
Republican Party: 44 / 52

Thinking about politics: Right now, are you inclined to vote to re-elect your representative in Congress in the next election or are you inclined to look around for someone else to vote for?
36% Re-elect, 56% Look Around

2010 House: Generic Ballot
46% Democrat, 46% Republican (chart)

Party ID
32% Democrat, 26% Republican, 39% independent (chart)

 

Comments
CUWriter:

To borrow a phrase from our commander in chief, this poll is just "more of the same." Obama is near 50% overall with a polling outfit that has shown a huge house effect in his favor over the last year and he's underwater on every issue except national defense. Man, who would have thought his terrorism approval would be 13 points better than his health care approval before this past year?!

Those congressional job approval numbers are just as horrible as they are elsewhere and 46/46 on the generic ballot for all adults is catastrophe for the Democrats... especially given that ABC/Post had them up 51/39 in October.

Still, November is about four political lifetimes away and anything can happen. Usually waves build early and just get bigger, but as we've seen in the past few years, nothing can be taken for granted and nothing is inevitable!

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John:

For the generic ballot, the RV is at 48%Rep-45%dem.(inc leaners as does the all adult poll)

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VA Dem:

This reminds me of the days when Ronald Reagan had a 35% approval rating with 10% unemployment (1983). Obama is looking great under the circumstances.

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Williame123:

VA Dem

Ronald Reagan was obviously an incompetent socialist who was trying to move too far left.

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CUWriter:

Reagan never had 35% approval, though it did dip to about 40%. You can consult the USAToday graph if you don't believe me.

At any rate, Reagan "stayed the course" in 1982 despite the unemployment situation (which was caused by high inflation and high interest rates as opposed to a credit crunch) because he felt that it was best for the long term. He turned out to be right as Volcker's policies strangled inflation and we had two decades of prosperity interrupted by short, sharp recessions in '87 and '91.

So if Obama believes he has the long term solutions, that's fine. By all means stay the course. I don't agree with him but at least he's sticking to his guns.

That said, Reagan lost control of the Senate in the midterms and the House GOP, which was already the minority party, got crushed... losing 26 seats. Given that a majority party starts out with the disadvantage of having to defend more seats, if this is another 1982, the Dems will lose 35-40 House seats, precariously close to the majority and probably about 5-7 senate seats.

Honestly, there is very little Obama can do about this. Presidents and political parties are more or less held hostage by the economy when times are bad. Only when economic times are good or even just OK do their fortunes rise and fall based on their policies.

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Farleftandproud:

6 in 10 people on Gallup said Obama has spent too little time on the economy. That sums it up just how stupid many voters are. I can honestly say Obama has given more time to the economy than other presidents have. That is ridiculous. I am sure if Mccain were president, I bet it would be close to 9 out of 10 people would think he was ignoring the economy.

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Farleftandproud:

The economy is improving for the middle and lower middle class. Obama has a serious problem with minority unemployment being twice of what it is for Whites.In general, I predict it will be at 8.2 next Nov. Fewer jobs will be lost and finally voters will be brought to their senses and more will see the big picture, instead of the picture that right wing spin teams have painted which is nothing better than a pack of lies.

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Wong:

Gallup had Reagan at 35% in January of 83. You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.

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