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US: National Survey (ABC/Post 8/30-9/2)

Topics: Natioanl , poll

ABC News / Washington Post
8/30-9/2/10; 1,002 adults, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(ABC: story, results; Post: story, results)

National

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 52 (chart)
Economy: 41 / 57 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
25% Approve, 72% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot (among likely voters)
53% Republican, 40% Democrat (chart)

Party ID
31% Democrat, 25% Republican, 39% independent (chart)

 

Comments
ath716:

ABC/WashPost +13, Gallup +10, Ras +12, Fox +9, CNN +7, NBC/WSJ +9.

Fat lady is waiting for her cue...

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schakj:

Republicans poised to gain 48 seats in House: http://schakj.blogspot.com/.

By the way, if this poll is correct, the Democrats might lose 148 seats. I have trouble believing the gap is this large, though.

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Paleo:

ABC and NBC polls have it just about even among registered voters. So, obviously, the trick for Democrats is to start to create some enthusiasm among those currently "unethusiastic." If they can, they can cut their losses.

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melvin:

If the GOP don't win back the House in November, its going to be a very big embarrassment for the Major Media..The Major Media is presuming the Minorities,and young voters is not going to come out in vote...This is not 1994 when the Minority vote was only 8% of the vote..If the Minority vote just be 16% this November it means the GOP would only gain 26 seats...So don't worry Democrats,because these generic polls don't mean jack anymore...In order for the GOP to win back the House they would have to win 8 solid blue districts which has over 40% Minority population....Back in 1994 those same districts had only 16% Minority population,that's why the GOP won those seats,and if the gop do manage to win those seats,they wont hold on to them for very long,because Obama is going to be on the ticket in 2012,and that would mean the gop is going to lose 20 seats they gain this November very easily.

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melvin:

This poll only has 8% Minority representation,its obvious these pollsters are predicting bigtime the Minorities are not going to come out in vote if Obama is not on the ticket...The Minority vote has been over 14% in the midterms since 1994,that's why the GOP couldn't gain seats in 2002,when they had leads of over 8% in some polls heading into the final days before the midterms..Back in 2002 the GOP was predicted to win over 24 seats by Gallup,but won only 5,because like this year the pollsters was predicting only 8% Minority vote.

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pc17:

why does everyone assume that minorities always vote democrat. while they may tend to vote democrat, it's not guaranteed. plus what have the dmes done for minorities on the job front ince they controlled the white house, senate and house?

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Farleftandproud:

Melvin, they all have low minority represenation, but than again, historically they have had a low turnout in midterms. That is why it is up to us to twist their arm, and insure they come out to vote. If they don't think Obama has done enough, and are feeling down, I would just tell them, how upset they will be if Michelle Bachmann, Sharron Angle, Rand Paul or Pat Toomey get elected. It could destroy Obama's agenda completely.

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Bukama:

@ pc17

Silly, don't you know that the Dems have saved 50 bazillion jobs since taking over Congress in 2006. In fact, they saved teh job your kids will get when the graduate college in 2015 - if not for the Dems, the class of '15 would have been all out of work, 100% of them! Even if the Republicans take the House this year, any job improvement will relate solely to actions taken by the Dems.

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Farleftandproud:

WHat are the results among Registered voters?

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lat:

Flap and Melvin,

Don't be foolish here and don't look a gift horse in the mouth! Which would you rather have? The dems lose 30-35 seats and maintain very marginal control or they lose 45-50 seats give The GOP marginal control and Obama is able to pound Johnny Bonehead and his henchmen from the bully pulpit day after day and make them look like the fools and obstructionists that they are? A guy named Bill Clinton was very good at this if you recall after Newt Gingrich took over as speaker, but Johnny Bonehead is nowhere near as bright as Gingrich, in addition the GOP has no new ideas whatsoever. We are going to lose this battle (2010), but we will win the war!

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Paleo:

"WHat are the results among Registered voters?"

47-45 Republicans.

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Paleo:

"Which would you rather have? The dems lose 30-35 seats and maintain very marginal control or they lose 45-50 seats"

The former, any day of the week. The House is not the Senate. The minority is totally shut out.

And what's good for Obama is not necessarily good for the Democratic party. Clinton got re-elected, but it took the Democrats another 10 years to regain control of congress.

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pc17:

@Bukama

Either you're extremely sarcastic or you're drinking the cool aid as well. Running around talking about all the jobs you saved is a pathetic, feable act. I was no fan of George Bush, but he could have said the same thing, any President could say they "saved" jobs. It's the newest line when trying to spin a bad economy. It's like a baseball player making 100 errors in a season and saying "well in 62 games I was error free." Blame it all on ther repubs, but the dems took power in the house and senate in 2006, so they're in the wrong too.

BTW I don't have kids who will graduate in 2015, and I sure wouldn't assume the economy will be roaring, of course in 2015 you'll still be able to declare the jobs saved line so you'll be content.

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Field Marshal:

pc17,

He was being sarcastic.

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pc17:

Field Marshall,

Thanks, I'm not on the board often so I wasn't sure. But you hear that saved jobs nonsense enough that you can't be sure.

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seg:

schakj:
Right now the RCP is reps +8.1%. You used 2%. What would the result project to with 8.1% ?

lat:
"A guy named Bill Clinton was very good at this if you recall after Newt Gingrich took over as speaker, but Johnny Bonehead is nowhere near as bright as Gingrich, in addition the GOP has no new ideas whatsoever"

It is very risky to assume that a scenario will repeat itself just because it happened once before. That is especially true when it is a different group of players and issues.

the dems were wiped out under Clinton when the economy was good. All Clinton had to do was pretend to be somewhat conservative to earn forgiveness. Clinton had "flexible" opinions and principles. Clinton also had great political instincts and Obama's are abysmal.

Obama has failed to right the ship. The economy is bad and may not improve all that much by the next election. In that case, he is Jimmy Carter whatever fights he has with reps.

Second, when faced with the choice of winning ugly with Obamacare and making deep compromises (which were NEVER on the table at any time), Obama backed ugly. He has a history now of doubling down and seems unfazed by the failures that has brought him (which to me includes the still unpopular Obamacare), so I suspect that he will NOT pivot to the middle. He will continue his faux populist shtick and hammering on reps with curiously inept attacks.

Perhaps reps will play stupid; they are perfectly capable of doing so. On the other hand, I think Boehner is not clever enough to re-create Newt's fiasco. Furthermore, I would give even chances that Boehner is booted in favor of Ryan or Cantor, most likely Cantor. Both should scare Obama to death. Ryan does ernest and open-faced to perfection, making it dangerous to assault him, especially as ham-handedly as Obama does it. Cantor is very, very bright and seems very adept at keeping the right tack to the wind.

the other thing is that reps may very well controll both houses and the investigatory powers that go with them. If they are smart, they will go public only with the ones that look awful for Obama, which will include almost anything Holder has done.

Finally, even if Obama wins in 2012, he may very well be facing a veto-proof rep Senate. Just look at the huge number of aging dems up for re-election then.

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Bukama:

I thought the bazillion figure was a give-away. We really could use a winky-winky icon on these boards.

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nick283:

Ah, I'm sure this is just another biased pollster like Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, Gallup... This election is gonna be huge. Just hope the R's keep their nerve and defund Obamacare.

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HookedOnPolls:

I do too nick. A week or so ago Laura Ingrahm, who was filling in for O'Reilly, pressed Eric Cantor on the "defunding of ObamaCare" and he vowed it would be enacted.

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Aaron_in_TX:

They will try and defund the parts they don't like.

Most likely they will do what they wanted to do in committee, which was defund medicaid in order to fund medicare advantage. Literally I heard R's in the senate finance committee on C-span argue for that last fall. Snowe was the only R that voted against the amendment. Republicans never fail to try and cut the poor's benefits and give it to middle class elderly.

They will have trouble dealing with the moderate wing once again. I'm looking forward to that.

I doubt R's will work towards reinstating ins co's ability to discriminate based on pre-existing conditions, etc...

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seg:

Aaron_in_TX:
The reps played stupid for most of their 6 this millenia years. The dems played stupid for all of their 4. Both were completely obstructionist with opposite party presidents.

Maybe reps will blink this time and just try to do the right thing (which does not imply a liberal agenda, as most liberals parochially assume). The right thing is to actually try to reach reach reasonable compromises.

The dems staked out 95% and called it their share and offered to let reps pick the color of the curtains. They and their supporters did not seem to understand that compromising means meeting roughly half way.

The reps did not meet the dems halfway on the tax cuts, even though the dems voted for it out of political fear. Reps did not meet halfway on Iraq, but that would have been foolish: fight to win or do not fight at all. Do not fight half-assed as Obama is attempting.
(Personally, I would have passed on both wars).

Likewise, compromise on immigration: we will wall off the border, deport any new illegals immediately or whenever they turn up, demand papers of non-citizens anytime we please (as does almost every other country in the world), and we will naturalize all long-term illegal residents.

We will subsidize health insurance (but not fully) but also make it truly competitive.

We will do something unexpected, like recognize gay marriage (with some fig leave or another) and legalize pot and dramatically reduce penalities for other illegal drugs.

We will take vigorous initiatives to help blacks break out of the terrible conditions of inner cities. In exchange, affirmative action will be based solely on income, not race.

etc.

I have little hope these things will come to pass, but I will do my minuscule best to help it happen.

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