Pollster.com

there is a reason WHY fivethirtyeight.com has CBS NY Times almost dead last in polling accuracy ratings

Well CNN and Ipsos/McClatchy were very accurate in the '08 pres election and they have similar approval numbers for Obama.

25% of Reps approve of Obama? Please....

I've been stuck in meetings all damn morning....someone post whats happening in Mass...........any news?

Field Marshal

What proof do you have that any of the partisan breakdowns were not true at the time of the polling?

Stillow,

MSNBC just reported than turnout is looking high in the suburbs (lines) and pretty low in the city. Said that favors Brown. Heavy snow early morning and rain now. Said they're aren't even sure anymore who benefits from higher or lower turnout.

They're not looking too thrilled over there. I am starting to think it's a done deal. Probably won't even be close enough for recounts and delays.

I think Schilling was the final nail in the coffin.

My proof is common sense.

As Einstein noted, common sense is nothing more than one's accumulated prejudices. It is not synonymous with truth.

Well low turnout i nthe city would definately hurt coakley.

I dunno, I keep going back and forth on who is going to win. I wanna say Brown will, but MA is just so blue with such a powerful dem machine.

But that is a good sign for Brown to have higher turnout i nthe burbs..........

Stillow,

They are saying very long lines all over mass which favors the person with momentum. Even the guy on CNBC who is a lefty conceded the race was all but over.

Intrade concurs with that as Brown is now at 85 versus Coakley at 16.7 Anything above 80 in a binary outcome is "almost" certainty.

StatyPolly

Scott Brown won this election a week ago. The more the political trajectory of Obama's presidency looks like Reagan's the more the Dems will suffer at congressional level like the Repubs did in the '80s. The Rockefeller Republicans may yet rise again in the Northeast. Snowe and Collins will not be lonely forever.

StatyPolly

Scott Brown won this election a week ago. The more the political trajectory of Obama's presidency looks like Reagan's the more the Dems will suffer at congressional level like the Repubs did in the '80s. The Rockefeller Republicans may yet rise again in the Northeast. Snowe and Collins will not be lonely forever.

FM - I hope your right. Maybe all those stars will align for Brown. But MA being so dark blue is ripe for corruption to tilt this race to Coakley. I have my doubts today for some reason that brown will pull this out. Long lines in MA make "me" think it favors Coakley.

My fingers are crossed, Brown may very well save this country fromtaking huge lunges toward socialism.

I'm hoping.......................do it Brown!

As 538.com pointed out, Brown is more liberal than Dede in NY 23. Unless he changes in the Senate, he will make Snowe look conservative.

Yeah, he is against government health care, against cap and trade, a free enterprise and free trader, wants smaller government and less spending, pro-vouchers and charter schools, anti-illegal immigration, anti-gun control, anti-gay marriage, and for the death penalty.

The only thing remotely liberal is his stance on abortion which he supports Roe v Wade but not government funded abortions. He also promotes the ban on partial-birth abortions and supports strong parental consent rules.

Sounds like a big-time liberal to me!

Unlike you, 538.com actually scored his voing record in MA as opposed to just his rhetoric.

Unlike you, 538.com actually scored his voting record in MA as opposed to just his rhetoric.

He may be liberal compared to national republicans, but he is definitely very conservative compared to most from Massachusetts.

In addition, he is against just about all of the Obama/Pelosi/Reid socialism march that Dede was in fact for.

Lastly, a state senate voting record and a federal senate voting record will be significantly different.

Interesting to see that the libs like Schumer call him a "far-right teabagger", the Boston Globe called him "in the mode of the national GOP" and liberal bloggers like TPM have been saying he is a tea party candidate.

I guess that just shows the credibility that these people/institutions have.

I would describe him as social moderate and a fiscal conservative.

FM - The Boston Globe thinks anyone to the right of Hugo Chevez as a right wing extrmeiest.

Your argument makes little sense. Dede's so-called liberalism was also based on her record in NY. Schumer's record in the Senate will make him center-right in MA but he is still a national liberal.

Also, don't confuse opposition to Obama's agenda with being a conservative. There is a difference between being a partisan/political opportunist and being a conservative. Many of the same "conservative" Repubs who oppose ObamaCare supported a more fiscally irresponsible socialistic medicare bill under Bush. They supported No Child Left Behind and the socialism that came with it.

Again, don't confuse feckless partisanship with
ideological fealty.

Stillow,

I would agree. It will be interesting to see how he votes in the Senate. The Right to Life has endorsed him for the race even though they failed to do so in 2004. They said,
"conversations with the candidate have changed our attitude towards his candidacy as he has made moves in the right direction on the issue for our group."

Geez, Barack himself said just the other day that Brown is an extreme noecon t-bagger and voted with the GOP 96% of the time.

Barack wouldn't lie to us, would he?

Oh and Brown supported RomneyCare in 2006. You guys are right, he is a staunch "fiscal conservative." LoL.

You guys Williame123 and others like him are just i nthe mode of tryign to justify a coakley loss. If Brown wins it will hit them hard and mentally they will need soemthing to help justify the loss so they can try and regroup....its just early talking points, nothing more.

William,

Do you realize the legislation is after a Republican governor? Of course he voted for it.

The question is, would Brown, or Romney for that matter, vote for it again knowing what they know today.

Stillow,

That is 100% right. Check out Politico.com and see how the WH and DNSC and the Coakley campaigns are trading accusations. Preludes of things to come!

Stillow

Yeah right. I could careless about Brown. I don't worry about NE Repubs the same way a great many liberals in Conn and Vermont don't worry about Jodi Rell and Douglass. I worry about Southern Conservatives (both Dems and Repubs). I consider them to be a cancer on American civilization.

I actually think a Repub congress made possible by NE Repubs would be great for Obama. They would do for him what they did for LBJ and civil rights while giving him bipartisan cover (e.g. Collins and Snowe on stimulus). That is also what Southern Dems did for Reagan.

I like NE Repubs like Snowe, Chaffee, Collins, Jeffords, Gregg, Pataki etc because they tend to be social liberals, economic reformers and culturally moderate.

You guys are frustrated because I am pointing out Brown's liberal voting record.

Brown is not a social moderate and I bet you anything he will either have to convert into being one or he'll have a short career. I'll give him 90 days and see if Mass. has any recall laws like California in the bill. Repubs? Don't try to tell me it is unfair, if Mass did in fact have the law. You did it so we could too!

Judd Gregg is not a social liberal. I have seen him speak at town halls. I wouldn't say he is a bad guy, and answered my questions. Nevertheless on second thought, If being a social moderate means not allowing Bush to pass a constitutional ban on gay marriage and vote to allow inquiries about women who were possibly raped get a fair congressional hearing, than I guess I will call him a social moderate.

I think by the end of Obama's presidency conservative southern democrats will be extinct in areas that aren't heavily black, by the way those states are treating him. Maybe VA, NC and Florida will be the exception.

The cancer on American civilization? Southern politicians? That is a good one.

Field Marshal

"Do you realize the legislation is after a Republican governor? Of course he voted for it.

The question is, would Brown, or Romney for that matter, vote for it again knowing what they know today."

Yes they would vote for a slightly modified version of it in MA if they wanted to stay in local politics in MA. Romney's new found conservatism is nothing more than poltical opportunism a la Ford in NY. The amusing thing is you guys have fallen for it like callow political observers.

I think just about All conservative politicians are the cancer of civilization. (Well their policies are) Maybe not them personally.

Well it appears Farleftandproud has gone to that special place where the rest of us cannot follow.

Farleftandproud

"The cancer on American civilization? Southern politicians? That is a good one."

Not southern politicians, SOUTHERN CONSERVATIVES. There is a difference. They used to be Dems, now they are Repubs. Republicans used to detest their backwardness in the 19th century.

Farleftandproud

"The cancer on American civilization? Southern politicians? That is a good one."

Not southern politicians, SOUTHERN CONSERVATIVES. There is a difference. They used to be Dems, now they are Repubs. Republicans used to detest their backwardness in the 19th century.

Is this th etalking point? Bash southerners? really?

Stillow:
I can't believe you think Brown is a social moderate. Against womens right to choose, against womens receiving contraceptives if they are raped, against equal pay for women and against gay marriage. Really ... I am afraid that is a conservative.

lol Slow down amigo. Don't make it about all southerners. LBJ was a fine southerner.

Brown is not a staunch pro lifer...he support RvW...he is however opposed to partial birth abortion, which just for your info an over whelming number of americans are.

But I don't really care wha this social values are to be honest with you. If he stands up against this horrible HCR bill and big g'ment, then he da man!

Stillow:
Take a guess which President presided over the largest expansion in goverment in the last 20 years? He was also responsible for doubling the deficit. Need a few more hints?

Seriously????????????? Is this your guys talking points? Bash Bush and southerners?

This potential coakley loss has you guys more disoreitned than I thought it would.

Farleftandproud:

I agree that the far right is a cancer as much as the far left. It is the American story - A tail of two extremes. 20% on each side fighting each other since the birth of this nation. I just wish the 60% in the middle would just freaking lead. Whatever happened to the Moderate party? Alas into that good night.

Stillow:

You raised the issue about big government. What, you can't handle the truth? Listen, I am a moderate who left the R party because the right didn't think much of us. I never voted for W cause I thought he was too stupid to run the country.

W was not fiscal conservative. Many conservatives like myself left the GOP because the party got to liberal in its spending. Standing up to this absolutely horrible hcr bill the GOP has regained some of its fiscally conservative mojo. Bush and Obama are both gigantic fiscal liberals....they just like wasting money on different things.

Seriously, you need better talking points ammo than this. Explaining this potential loss by coakley by attacking Bush is absurd....so is attacking southerners.................

Stillow:

I am not trying to defend a potential Coakley loss and nobody writes talking points for this guy. I supported her because I couldn't support Brown on his social positions. You obviously don't care about social issues. That's your opinion and I served so you could have it. You raised the issue about gov't size and I wanted to point out a fact. Are you always looking for a fight? Are you part of the 20% on the right? Any centrist out there?

Stillow,

I hope they continue that assinine line of of thought (or lack thereof). It will mean continued losses come November and especially come 2012. The Dems and Obama are a complete failure.

I love the southern bashing. Its so hysterical and shows the stupidity of many on the left. Mass gained almost no people over the last decade while Texas gained nearly 9 million. Keep making fun of the South because pretty soon there will be no people left in the NE or mid-west. And i'm a New Yorker, born and raised who now lives in Colorado.

Thank you MASS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The bluest state in the country may just have saved this country.

Unbeleivable.........the biggest upset in modern history. .the Dems are well on there way of becoming a permanant minirority party if they cotnineu this socialist HCR crap.

I expect the bayh's, the nelsons, etc to now totally rethink there position.

The people have spoken. How fitting that the state which gave us the Boston Tea Party centuries ago has once again stepped up to te plate and done the right thing!!!!

Thank you Mass....thank you!

The South is slowly modernising because northerners are moving there. Look at VA and NC. Obama also won both in '08. He will win both again in 2012 by bigger margins.

Rubbish. the people are speaking. the indy's have no totally shifted to the GOP...NJ, VA and now MA.....the Dems have totally alienated the Indy's....if Obama does not get thsi message tonight and move to the center and get off this extreme left wing approach, he will lose more and more support....Dems will lose bigger in 2010 than they did in 1994 and Obama will be booted in 2012.

You Dems better get the message....this country is not liberal....stop pushing your left wing extremism on the rest of us.............

Again, thank you Mass!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Actually it would be stupid for the Dems not to pass HCR now. Whatever damage they are gonna sustain from it is already done.

Typical liberal arrogance...even though the people are screaming at you to stop, you still want to shaove it down there throats....totally typical liberal arrogance...and then you sit there and wonder why you keep getting your butts kicked. VA, NJ, MA.....

You pass HCR as its written now, you will lose the house, the senate and the WH and whatever garbage you pass will easily be repealed....

Dems do not lose in Mass......liberal arrogance...unbeleivable!

Obama is not going anywhere. Reagan had worse poll numbers under similar conditions and lost 26 seats in the House. I guess Reagan was too right-wing and a failure. No wonder he was a one-term president.

You just keep on thinking what you are right now...keep on thinking you can shove this left wing extremeist crap down everyones throat and you will keep losing elections. Obama is now 0 for 3 in election.....All 3 states he won....and now GOP victories in all 3.....so yep, keep on doing what your doing...its working extremely well, for the GOP!!!!!!!!!!!

Hahahahah.

Thank you MA!!!!!!!!!

lol HCR is going to pass. We will see in 2012.

lol HCR is going to pass. We will see in 2012.

I must have missed the huge demographic changes that occurred in MA. As I learned from some of the distinguished posters on this site, states where Republicans win state wide elections are dominated by angry, old, racist white guys. And they have a largely uneducated population. Wow, now we have proof that the Univ of Kentucky and Georgia Tech are on a par with Harvard and MIT.

Obama is a unifier after all. He moved VA, NJ, and MA all solidly into the GOP column.

Hey Stillow.....I mean Boomshak. The GOP and conservatives in general represent the most ignorant of Americans. The fools go between the major parties like changing socks.Their motto is always "i'll vote for the other guy".So yes right now you are winning but then we will win..it is a never ending circle which is why I am supporting the Green Party to break this cycle.Besides I am having a hard time telling the Democrats and the GOP apart anymore.

Big Mike if you think New Jersey and Massachusetts are solidly GOP then you need your head examined.

I think ObamaCare is just about done now. Nothing major can pass the House vote.

They're all up for re-election in 10 short months, and they're about done sticking their necks out for Nancy and Barack.

Wouldn't surprise me to see a few more defections to GOP.

Yep...there will be a new wave of Dem retirements and party switches to the GOP. At this point i won't matter, even if they shove the unpopular HCR thru, it will be easily repealed now. Republican senators are not elected in Mass unless the dems are doing soemthing very very wrong.

The Dem response seems to be to start namecalling and getting even more arrogant. they simply do not get it. They are losing seats that no one ever thought they'd lose. Dems are in for a huge ass whipping in November if they ram this thing thru at this point. It would nearly seal Obama in as a one term president. Clinton was saved because HCR failed.....I am not sure Obama is smart enough to realize that.

And stop comparing obama to reagan....cus obama is no ronald reagan....reagan is way, way out of obama's league as a leader.

History people, we just made history tonight....not to bad for a party that the left procalimed DEAD and woul dnever win anything i nthe Northeast again.

Keep up the namecalling and arrogance liberals...your strategy is doing wonders for the resurgance of the GOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

lol

the conservative plurality combined with heavy support from moderates is finally starting to flex its muscle......liberals are simply outnumbered....what si forming is a conservative and moderate alliance which is causing Dems to now lose election after election. So again, keep up the liberal extremist stuff!! Please cotninue to alientate the right and the center....its a winning strategy for sure!

lol This is what i don't undertand; if MA is GOP country, why did Brown make it seem like he was friendly with obama in his victory speech. Why was he complimentary to the memory of ultra left-wing Teddy and his record? Why did he run ads of JFK and not Reagan?

Why didn't Christie run against Obama in NJ? Why didn't McDonnel want Palin in VA. After all VA is far more conservative than MA. Why didn't his campaign make the election a referendum on Obama? Why aren't NE Repubs seeking statewide offices itching to blast Obama at every turn like they did Clinton in '94?

You guys are amusing.

Brown's a Republican? I never knew! He calls himself a member of the "Independent Party" whatever that means... No references to Republicans anywhere...

LordMike:
"Brown's a Republican? I never knew! He calls himself a member of the "Independent Party" whatever that means... No references to Republicans anywhere..."

Like McDonell in VA, he thought the GOP brand was too sacred to brag about.

LordMike - really? I guess voters didn't see the R next to his name on the ballot...I guess he didn't say he would glady join the GOP in opposing HCR??????

Williame123

Its called civility, you libs should try it. On policy he slammed Obama in his speech...my favorite line was our tax money should be used to stop them, not on lawyers to defend them..........totally slammed obama's stance on civilian trials.

You guys better get the clue on these elections. Cons and mods have joined together now pretty solidly....and your losing as a result.