Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

US: National Survey (CBS 3/29-4/1)

Topics: poll

CBS News
3/29-4/1/10; 858 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CBS: story, results-early release)
Check back for more from this poll later this evening

Update - Additional releases: Most Americans remain against health care overhaul (article, results); Americans losing faith in Pope (article, results)

National

Obama Job Approval
44% Approve, 41% Disapprove (chart)
Health Care: 34 / 55 (chart)
Economy: 42 / 50

CBS:

Americans are still worried about the economy, with 84 percent telling CBS they thought it was still in bad condition. However, even that high number represents an improvement: nine in ten thought the economy was bad during the last half of 2008 and at the beginning of 2009, when Mr. Obama assumed the Presidency.

Concern about job loss remains high; slightly more Americans now (35 percent) than in February (31 percent) were "very concerned" that someone in their household would lose a job. Nearly six in ten Americans said they were at least "somewhat concerned" about a job loss.

 

Comments
jack:

I think it's time Pollster.com wrote an article on Bill Clinton's BS prediction that Obama's approval would rise 10% after passage of health care reform.

____________________

Julia:

I don't accept any poll results from those afraid to post their sample break down. How many of these 858 are republican vs. democrat? Polls are only as good as their methodology and if those methods are sound, why is CBS afraid to indicate what they were. There has been a particularly disturbing trend of late by pollsters to use crazy samples and/or not post the sample composition. This is worthless unless proven otherwise and I'm tired of seeing these garbage polls hyped by their respective outlets. Within days, the president had 53% approval in one poll and 44 in another. Clearly the country is not undergoing this level of ideological whiplash. If the polling community cannot produce high quality work, maybe they should get a job at Burger King?

____________________

CUWriter:

The tracking polls are always going to have statistical noise from day to day, despite the fact that they are smoothed with three day compilations. I daresay the polls have been pretty consistent actually, given the MoE. Obama is polling 44-48% approval pretty much across the board (save for Gallup's last couple of days of tracking). That has been essentially flat for the last several months.

Also, crosstabs are being released at 6:30, so chill.

____________________

Julia:

"Obama is polling 44-48% approval pretty much across the board"

Really? Here's a couple non-Gallup that don't conform to your hypothesis:

CNN Obama Job Approval
3/28/2010 Approve 51.0%, Disapprove 48.0%

ABC/WaPO Obama Job Approval
3/26/2010 Approve 53.0%, Disapprove 43.0%

____________________

notonegativity:

Did you note that only 85% of people sampled responded with either approved or disapproved of President Obamas job performance? 15% seems kind of high for undecided/no opinion seems kind of high to me for Presidential polling related to job performance.

____________________

Ryan:

Julia-"Obama is polling 44-48% approval pretty much across the board"

In the last 3 weeks there have been 28 polls on BO's approval rating, he got 50% or above on 6 of them, 3 of which are the afore-mentioned Gallup polls. So 22 of 28 were below 50%.

____________________

Stillow:

I thought this poll was a typo. Why would the extremely pro Dem CBS release this poll?

jack is right....high profile Dems, Clinton among them said O's approval would jump after HCR passed. If anything its getting worse with some of these pollsters.

____________________

Field Marshal:

That's a new low for CBS in approval. HCR may IN FACT BE his waterloo. Or, it could be the myriad of other dumb things he has done since inauguration.

____________________

Xenobion:

He is still more popular than most of the past presidents at this point in their presidencies. His popularity is mirrored to Regan's track which will be interesting to follow, but really it seems few remember Bush polling 20%... wonder what the tea partiers were doing at that time.

____________________

Mike Lewyn:

Oh, chill out all of you. The difference between 53% and 48% (with a 3 pt margin of error) is not statistically significant.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

Bush was on the same downward trajectory (actually he didn't start as high, expectations were lower) as Obama until 9/11, when he shot up to 90 and began a slow decline for the rest of his presidency, bottoming out in the low 20s and ending up in the low-to-mid 30s. If 9/11 had never happened, I imagine the democrats would have had a stronger nominee in 2004 (possibly Hillary or Al Gore again) and Bush would've had a tougher re-election.

Obama's approval is marginally better than Reagan's or Clinton's were at this point in their first terms. The decline looks worse because there were very high expectations surrounding Obama in the first few months.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

If you set the date range on the job approval chart from 12/1/2009 to today, there has been almost no fluctuation in Obama's numbers whatsoever over 4 months. This tells me the HCR debate has done the worst of its damage.

____________________

Julia:

So the full article is out and still no indication of what the party break down was among those surveyed.

I also find it really tough to believe that only 52% of Democrats support the health care bill. The integrity of this poll simply stinks.

____________________

StatyPolly:

Wow, that was some bump!

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Mar10c-Obama-issues.pdf

Now even the Dems are turning against HC since passage. I think BOBO did get a little personal bump for a few days, since winning ANYTHING after several bad months is viewed as a personal achievement, but BOBO is not on the ballot this year. I think the surprise Stan visit and the Russian Nuke agreement was viewed favorably as well and helped his ratings.

____________________

Julia:

28% rep
32% dem
40% indi

Now I know why the crosstabs were so slow to show up. Democrats were undersampled and republicans significantly oversampled. Weighting the sample only exaggerates a bad sample. We also don't know the ideology of independents. Only approximately 20 of all self declared independents are true independents vs. democrats or republicans who happen to not like party labels, so it's helpful to know their ideology when understanding what percentages to use.

As I suspected, another crap poll. Obama haters shouldn't get excited by this one.

____________________

jamesia:

15% undecided with a 3% MOE? How can anyone take this seriously? Granted, the President's approval is still +3%, and still better than Reagan & Clinton at this point... but with that kind of uncertainty built in, why even publish the poll to begin with? Even with the poll, the President's approval rating has been remarkably stable...

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

It seems like most of the polls that have Obama in positive territory have a high proportion of undecided.

____________________

Rockym92:

The right wing crazies at CBS are it again. Pitiful. Any poll not favorable to Obama SHOULD NOT be published

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR