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US: National Survey (CNN 9/21-23)

Topics: National , poll

CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
9/21-23/10; 1,010 adults, 4% margin of error
506 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Obama, generic ballot)

National

2010 House: Generic Ballot
53% Republican, 44% Democrat (chart)

Obama Job Approval
425 Approve, 54% Disapprove (chart)

 

Comments
StatyPolly:

Nasty approve/disapprove. Adults sample.

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Bob in SJ:

The generic ballot is LV's, which is in line with previous polls. Dems need some GOTV to keep it close.

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Still looking for some group showing regional breakdowns of generic polls. I suspect the news organizations don't want to pay for that. Since this poll ends up with only 506 likely voters nationally, the MOE on any regional breakdowns would be about +/- 100%!

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Mike E:

Only a true messiah, like "the one", could have an approval of 425%. Obama be praised!

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Field Marshal:

nelcon,

There was this released yesterday by Public Opinion Strategies for a group called American Action Network which i believe is a center-right PAC group- but its something.

From the survey:
Regionally, the Republican wins 47%-39% in the South, 47%-35% in the Midwest, and 46%-36% in the West, while trailing 36%-47% in the Northeast. The Midwest is going to be a killing field for Democrats this year — from western PA through to the Plains, Republicans are going to sweep a LOT of Democrats right out of office.

The GOPer leads 51%-32% among whites (that’s 61% of the decided white vote). In 1994, GOPers won the white vote 57%-41%. In the nadir year of 2006, Republicans only took 51% of the white vote.

Suburban and rural voters are both going GOP by double digits – suburban by a 48%-36% margin and rural voters break 51%-30%.

In the states Obama won with less than 54% of the vote, the generic is breaking 48% GOP/34% Dem. Those states are Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, and New Hampshire — where, not coincidentally, there are a lot of targeted House races (including many that have just bubbled up to target lists in the last few months as voters seek to punish the party in power).

http://pos.org/2010/09/national-survey-highlights-dem-problems-in-key-seats/

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StatyPolly:

Marist also showed GOP leading in three of the four regions.

/blogs/us_national_survey_maristmccla.html

'cept their site is out right now..

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PubliusFL:

Marist/McClatchy showed the Republicans +4 in the South and Midwest, +3 in the West, and -2 in the Northeast. Sample was 815 registered voters. The Pew poll released recently also showed regional breakdowns. It's quite a bit older (end date was 9/6) but the sample size was better (2,053 likely voters). It showed the Republicans +1 in the East, -1 in the Midwest, +15 in the South, and +6 in the West.

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Cederico:

These are just brutal numbers this late in the game. There is no doubt the GOP would take the House with these type figures.

Those regional numbers are especially worrisome. The DEMS will either keep or lose the House depending on House races in OH, PA, IN, IL, WI and MI. If they are trailing big there then this will be a rout.

I don't have any solution for the DEMS to turn this around. They do have a short window of time but they can't seem to get their act together. The GOP is as unpopular as the DEMS yet the DEMS don't seem to be running a hard hitting campaign against them.

There is so much ammunition for the DEMS...Tea Party extremism, Social Security privatization, middle class tax cuts, Wall Street, Bush II, etc. I guess the DEMS have determined to run campaigns race by race instead of developing a national strategy/theme against the GOP. We'll see if it works.

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Stillow:

Cederico - Disagree. the Dems have nothing to run on. They cannot run on anything they have done i nthe past 2 years. None of them even want HCR mentioned because its so unpopular. They cannot run o nthe stimulus because its a huge failure.Wall street corruption belongs to no one party, in fact it was Bernie Madoff who sort of symbolized the corruption and he was a huge Democrat. they cannot run on loweirng unemployemnt. They won't even vote o the tax cut extensions so they cannot run on that.

They have nothing but finger pointing. That worked in 2008...the whole lets just balme the other party....but strategy only works once. It does not work a second time. You have to have more to say than its the other guys fault. Everytime they do that they probably lose support.

Like it or not at least the GOP released a platform of ideas.....repealing HCR, tax cuts, etc. Dems have nothing to run on but having added 3 trillion more in debt, created a 1.4 rillion dollar budget deficit and have had unemployment go up under there reign.

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dpearl:

According to the article this poll has the generic congressional ballot at 53% Republican, 44% Democrat and 20% undecided. I wish they would have explained how things got over 100% (e.g. was this only percentage of those who had decided with 3% going for third parties or did they force the respondents to make a choice???)

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melvin:

If you take out the Bush taxcut,Obama would have only increased the deficet to 800 Billion..Thats why the Gop wants Obama to keep the taxcuts.because it raises the deficet at an alarming rate

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melvin:

The Gop wants Obama to keep the taxcuts in place so that they can say Obama has raised the deficet to 14 trillion in 2012...Its a setup in Obama in the Dems have fallen for that trick by the Gop

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melvin:

The Gop plan is to keep taxes low for the rich..Cut domestic spending by 50pct...Start a war with Iran...Eliminate the Gay people..That is the Gop plan...

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melvin:

Who ever wins the Republican nomination in 2012 is going to need 62pct of the white vote...Only 2 Republicans in they're 145 yr history has ever gotten over 60pct of the white vote.

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melvin:

Reagan got over 60pct in 1984,and Nixon did it in 1972,but in boh of those yrs the Gop out numbered the Dems at 43 pct to 38 pct,but in 2012 the Dems will out number the Gop by 38pct to 35

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melvin:

Everybody knows Mccain got killed in 2008,but the media didnot tell you Mccain needed 61pct of the white vote to win...Mccain k

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melvin:

Do you see any of tbose clowns the Gop is putting up in 2012 who can get 62pct of the white vote?,,In order fir that to happen the gop is going to need 8pct of liberal whites to vote for them in 2012

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JJC:

Federico

Dems have nothing but their own policy failures to run on, so they'll smear their opposition. A movement that is dedicated to limiting the size of government, and who's principles are derived from the founding fathers, is not extreme. You can believe the smears all you want, but the American people aren't buying it, as this poll shows.

"In even worse news for congressional Democrats, likely voters say they are considerably more likely to vote for a candidate the president opposes than one he supports. On the other hand, 50 percent of voters said they would be more likely to vote for a Tea Party-backed candidate while a third of Americans said Tea Party support would dissuade their vote for a candidate."

I'll tell you what is extreme. Extreme is liberals who believe socialism is great and should be implemented in America. Extreme is someone who thinks they know whats best for everyone else. Extreme is a democratic leadership that has pursued policies that the VAST majority of Americans opposed.

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melvin:

The reason Reagan in Nixon was able to get over 60pct of the white vote was because they both got 11pct of liberal whites to vo

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Cederico:

Disagee Stillow. They have plenty to run on if they are willing to actually stand up for their core beliefs and their accomplishments.

Accomplishments

The Stimulus Worked: According to the CBO and various independent analysis by leading economists. Near Depression to growing GDP, losing 700,000 jobs to gaining jobs.

Healthcare Reform: The specific details are very popular even if the overall package has been vilified.

Wall Street Reform: Popular with public and no better boogey man than Wall Street.

Education Reform: Race to the Top and Student Loan Reform

Energy: The Stimulus had tons of green projects and initiatives which move US towards energy independence and cleaner energy.

Credit Card Reform: now almost everyone can appreciate the crackdown here.

Small Business Bill: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Upcoming Agenda

Economic Measures: Obama's just revealed measures including the 50 Billion Infrastructure Plan, new tax breaks for business. Mostly importantly extending Middle Class Tax Cuts.

Immigration Reform: Securing the Border, Dealing with Current Illegals

Climate Change / Energy: Run on saving our environment and creating green jobs of the future.

And yes the DEMS should point out the GOP failures that got us in this mess. In fact the pubic agrees with the DEMS over who is at fault...so why is it politically stupid to make that point and use it to your advantage?

Lastly DEMS need to continue to expose the radical agenda of these Tea Party candidates. The DEMS should point out that the new GOP Pledge is nothing more than Bushism all over again.

So there...DEMS can turn this around. Will they? Who knows.

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melvin:

When Reagan in Nixon got over 60pct of the white vote,they both won over 500 electoral votes...60pct of the white vote today by the gop is only going to get them 260 electoral votes,which is amazing.

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melvin:

The gop have a big Demographic problem..I just wish the major media would start talking about,because the gop cant win if the Dems get close to 39pct of the white vote in 2012.

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melvin:

The minorities are so under polled in these polls its just so unbelievable..The minority vote is going to be 16pct in Nov,which means the gop is only going to win 20 seats if that.

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melvin:

The gop only chance of winning anything would be in the midterms,because when the general elections come around the gop is going to get killed,because the numbers are unbelievable

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Stillow:

Cederico - The best way for the GOP to make huge gains this fall is for Dems to loudly priase exactly those thing syou just mentioned. The reason they aren't is because they know most of the stuff they do is not popular.

...and can we please get melvin some help.

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Aaron_in_TX:

I've already benefitted from the student loan reform. They will be much easier to consolidate and flex the payments.

I don't know how anyone can be for private banks giving people like med students loans for $80K at 20% interest. That reform ended that.

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Stillow:

I say the g'ment shoud do it....in fact they should do car loans and home loans to. Its fundamentally unfair for a bank to charge you interest on any type of loan. The tax payers should foot the bill and hope you pay it back.

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Stillow:

Oh wait, fannie and freddie already do that and it worked so well didn't it....!

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kariq:

Fannie and Freddie were privatized in the 1960s, Stillow. They were owned by private shareholders, while still being financially backed by the government. In fact, it was their private shareholders that encouraged them to take more risk in the housing bubble. I'll certainly agree that combination of private ownership with governmental financial guarantee is a very bad idea.

Student loans were very similar. They were made by private banks, but guaranteed by the government. It was a good deal for banks, but it didn't make any sense for anyone else. The government is projected to make money off the student loans, and students are getting a better deal. I know it doesn't support the "government is evil" plot line that some believe in, but making the student loans an entirely governmental program is a good deal for everyone.

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Stillow:

kariq - Good deal for everyone? Fannie and Freddie are quazi owned by the feds. But why stop at student loans? Lets have the feds give out home loans and a flat 3 percent...or uto loans for a flat 3 percent. G'ment makes money and its hceaper for us right?

Can we also get them to issue visa cards at lower rates?

I mean its a better deal for all right? After all the tax payer is a bottomless pit of money. I realize its my fundamental duty to provide people like aaron with funds to go to school and all, but lets keep this ball rolling. Once they control all lending nd all HC, we should be setup pretty good.

G'ments thruought histry have never abused this kind of power once they get it...so lets go full steam ahead. get those gready banks out of the way...lets bring back the bank of the united states while we're at it. Its a perfect gig for the g'ment ain't it? If you default on your student loan paid for me by, well hell, then I also get to pay the loan back too. G'ment wins, tax payers lose....hmmmm, seems to be repetitive these days.

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VermontWisdom:

"...there are a lot of targeted House races (including many that have just bubbled up to target lists in the last few months as voters seek to punish the party in power)."


FM, simply punishing the "party in power" without considering the alternative that you will be voting for is nothing more than an irrational tantrum. The Dems have to make this a choice election not a referendum. They are trying but it is late in the game.

By the way with the filibuster rules in the Senate I would say that the Republicans actually had a huge effect on what got done( and more importantly not done). The Democrats really never had total control of the legislative process because of that. Even on health care, but for the filibuster, there would be a public option right now, probably in the form of people being able to buy into medicare.

Both parties are going to have to give up this obstructionist rule if anything is to be accomplished. How often will either party have 60? We can't afford to have endless gridlock.

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Stillow:

VermontWisdom
"FM, simply punishing the "party in power" without considering the alternative that you will be voting for is nothing more than an irrational tantrum"

I actually totally agree with that statement...but thats not how thing swork. Look at 2008, it was all blame bush, 24/7. The entire campaign was I am not Bush or a republican...and it paid huge dividends. Now the tables are turned. And the narrative is I oppose Barry and I am not the democrat i nthe race. And it will pay equally big dividends this fall.

More often than not you can win elections by simply not being the party in power.

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lat:

A new poll is out by public opinion strategies showing Harry Reid up by 5 but the bigger surprise is that Rory Reid has closed to within 6 of Sandoval. This supposedly is a republican poll which you folks put more stock in than I do. To me a poll is a poll regardless of the person or party conducting it.

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VermontWisdom:

Stillow, that is a recipe for gridlock and ultimate collapse of our economy. Decisions on who you are voting for have to be based on objective criteria not blind anger. And unless those voting decisions are based on facts, the party out of power will have increasing incentives to make things worse so that the party in power will get blamed. Elections have to mean something. And once they are over the party in power should have the right to pursue the policies it ran on and which were approved by the voters.

Don't get me wrong., I understand that many here do objectively prefer Republicans. But for the vast majority of swing voters their anger will lead to votes for people that will not represent their interests.

By the way, I do not believe the 2008 election was nothing but anti Bush. In fact I was amazed at how Obama kept saying we cannot look to the past we have to look forward. Unfortunately for him, and more importantly for our country, the Republicans made a calculated decision to oppose almost everything he did and make no effort to reach common ground. There were no investigations launched after Obama was elected. There will be if Republicans win in November.

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Stillow:

VermontWisdom - Again, I mostly agree with you. But thats is essentially what we have. the toher side is not intereste din cooperation, its all about brining downthe other side so you can win the next time around. It simply is what it is.

Everyone has cute rhetoric about change and looking to the future, but the substance of 2008 was anti Bush stuff. That is what it was. Every speech Barry gave he mentioned Bush numerous times and basically said everything was Bush's fault. rhetoric is one thing that everyone spews out, but what wins you an election is not being in the party in power when things are bad.

We'll also disagree on people voting agaisnt htere intrests....as I think a focus on less spending and lower taxes helps average people...not trillion dollar deficits and tax increases on job creators. So that is simply our opinion entering into the discussion. IMO voting for liberal democrats goes against the best intrests of average people....but goes for your intrests if you are dependant on some type of g'ment entitleemnt. So again, its subjective.

And since we disagree, round and round thecircle keeps going.

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