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US: National Survey (DemCorps 4/17-20)

Topics: National , poll

Democracy Corps* (D)
4/17-20/10; 1,000 2008 voters
872 likely 2010 voters
(questions asked of 2008 voters unless otherwise noted)
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Democracy Corps release)

*Democracy Corps is a non-profit organization founded by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Democratic consultant James Carville.

National

State of the Country
34% Right Direction, 57% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
48% Approve, 46% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 46 / 50 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Republican Party: 33 / 44
Democratic Party: 39 / 45
Barack Obama: 49 / 40 (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot (chart)
2008 voters: 45% Democrat, 43% Republican
Likely 2010 voters: 45% Republican, 43% Democrat

As you may have heard, President Obama's health care reform plan was passed by Congress and signed into law. From what you have heard about this plan, do you favor or oppose Obama's health care reform plan?
42% Favor, 49% Oppose (chart)

Party ID
37% Democrat, 29% Republican, 28% independent (chart)

 

Comments
Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

As you may have heard, President Obama's health care reform plan was passed by Congress and signed into law. From what you have heard about this plan, do you favor or oppose Obama's health care reform plan?
42% Favor, 49% Oppose (chart)

Boy is that thing not moving. At least we got to find out what's in it, right liberals?

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StatyPolly:

First thing that jumps out is this little internals flaw:

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot (chart)
2008 voters: 45% Democrat, 43% Republican
Likely 2010 voters: 45% Republican, 43% Democrat

We all know that 2010 likely voters pool will be quite different from 08.

At least as of TODAY, the enthusiasm gap is still huge, especially in comparison to 08.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/127553/Enthusiastic-Voters-Prefer-GOP-Points-2010-Vote.aspx

But other than that, a nice looking poll:-)

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StatyPolly:

Ok, I misread that a little. Thought they claimed 45-43 for Dems in both 08 and 10.

Hate it when dyslexia strikes just like that, right out of the blue.

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sjt22:

@ Westwood

I wonder which side of that Romney and the Heritage foundation are on. Since they loved the plan so much at the state level but now seem to have their brains exploding when their idea gets adopted by a Democrat.

I also wonder which side people like Michele Bachmann are on, who wants to repeal reform and then enact the exact same provisions which are already in the bill.

We all know that 2010 likely voters pool will be quite different from 08.

We know this for sure? 7 months out from an election? Well since we know so much why even bother going to the polls?

Personally I'll trust the work of Greenberg, one of the finest pollsters in the country.

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rdw4potus:

The disqualified respondents favor the dems by about 10% on most questions. I wonder about the point of disqualification. Most similar polls end the call after Q1 if the respondent is not registered to vote, and collect data for all other people, even if they are later removed through an LV screen. If that methodology was followed here, then the Dems could probably gain back 2-3% before November if they don't totally screw up banking reform and whatever immigration law they're going to slap together. All they'd have to do is turn unlikely/unsure voters into likely voters to alleviate some of the current gap. To a certain extent, that is what is expected to happen in the months leading up to an election.

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StatyPolly:

Hey SJT,

You're right, we don't know for sure who'll turn out 6 months from now. I did sorta qualify that in my next line. "as of TODAY".

We don't know, but neither does DemCorps..

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Democrats, of which I am one, who thought that passage of HCR would give them a bounce were deluding themselves. Given the process, the failure to include a public option, the excise tax and the individual mandate, this legislation had political loser written all over it. Had Obama and the Democrats not caved on the public option, which polls showed was far more popular than the individual mandate and the excise tax, they would have received at least a modest boost.

To minimize the normal off-year losses, Democrats must focus on issues other than health care. The best thing they have going for them is that the Republicans are nuts. They are simply radical reactionaries. And legislative anarchists to boot. Democrats should play this up as much as possible.

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GARY WAGNER:

"Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Democratic consultant James Carville."

That says it all right there, doesn't it?

What's up with the party affiliation? Not only are there too few republicans - the numbers only add up to 94%. What are those other 6%? Democrats that are too embarassed to admit it?

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Paleo:

Maybe the other 6% are teabaggers. Which is the same as being Republican.

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rdw4potus:

Well...ummm...there are other official national parties. Libertarian, Green, Constitutional. Kinda scared that this is news to you...

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rdw4potus:

Well...ummm...there are other official national parties. Libertarian, Green, Constitution. Kinda scared that this is news to you...

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Field Marshal:

"To minimize the normal off-year losses, Democrats must focus on issues other than health care. The best thing they have going for them is that the Republicans are nuts. They are simply radical reactionaries. And legislative anarchists to boot. Democrats should play this up as much as possible."

Yeah, i really hope they take that route too! They should really focus on how Americans who disagree with the administration are secessionists, racists, radical reactionaries, and nuts. That will eliminate that enthusiasm advantage that the GOP currently enjoys- piss of your opponent by denigrating them is a great strategy but one not our of the realm of the far-left kooks currently in charge of this country.

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tjampel:

@statypolly

So you don't think the assumed 4% party affiliation differential between 2008 actual voters and 2010 likely voters is enough? You think it will be 6%, 8%, 10%?

2008 actual voters are far more likely to vote than "all adults" or all RVs. These people DID vote. I think that a 4% swing to GOP is not unrealistic, given continued enthusiasm gap.

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Farleftandproud:

Obama is clearly considered by conservatives to be the most far-left president, if not because he is from an exotic background, or his last name, it just may be he is the first president after 70 years of trying, who passed comprehensive health reform.

I believe that Al Gore, John kerry or Hillary Clinton would be getting the same attacks as Obama considering the chaos there is between the parties. LBJ who got medicare passed was even called a socialist at the time. It had a lower favorabality than HCR today. 42/49 isn't that bad considering all the bickering that went into HCR

Hey the John Birch Society even believed that president Eisenhower was a socialist. They also believed that the government had an evil plan to brainwash people by putting flouride in the water. Fringe groups are nothing new. What comes around goes around.

Sort of like Grunge music; punk was popular in the 1970's with the Sex Pistols and Ramones and died completely in the 80's and was reserected into a new style of music popularized by Green Day and Nirvana. Trends in politics are kind of like trends in music

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Paleo:

Don't blame "the administration" or Democrats for the fact that "secessionists, racists, radical reactionaries, and nuts" oppose them.

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Farleftandproud:

This poll is quite a switch from Washington state where Patty Murray was only 2 points ahead of a guy who was only known for being an all Pro Tight end with the Washington Redskins.

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StatyPolly:

TJAMPEL,

Enough?

To win majority in the House, I presume?

Not sure..

I do think that if the sentiment stays where it is right now, GOP will gain at least 50 seats, I'd guess. I sense the reverse in turnout from 08.

I do realize that sentiment could swing considerably. Less than 190 days to go til Nov 2.

We'll see..

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Farleftandproud:

The economy would have to actually get worse for that previous scenario to happen. 50 seats is not likely if the average lead for the GOP is 4 points or less.

I can already think of about 20 seats the GOP will probably win, but they are all mostly in red states and rural areas where they had a conservative Democrat and the voters leaned Republican. I think in the areas where there isn't a retirement and Obama won, will likely stay in Democratic hands. I personally think that the Dems could win some seats in some suburban areas, if they campaign well.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

sjt22:
@ Westwood

I wonder which side of that Romney and the Heritage foundation are on. Since they loved the plan so much at the state level but now seem to have their brains exploding when their idea gets adopted by a Democrat.

===

LMAO! I love this dumb libtard talking point! How stupid you must be to be passing a Republican healthcare bill and now is being punished by the voters for it! Progressives wet themselves all over Obamacare as the second coming Obama the Christ. Who knew that all along they were passing a Republican healthcare bill? Karl Rove, you magnificent bastard.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

GARY WAGNER:
"Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Democratic consultant James Carville."

===

Which is what makes this poll incredibly racist. "Carville"? Dog-whistle. "Greenberg"? Well that rhymes with Goldman Sachs. Thanks for reading the most comprehensive summary of all the Dem talking points this past two years.

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adocarbog:

Democrats need to be concerned. Rupublicans must not count their chickens yet, or try to barter them for health care.
Republicans might be cresting too early. They also have a limited upside. While they may overtake the house (not a certainty) it will be by a small margin. Senate is out of reach.
Near term problem for Republicans (2-6 months)is the economy. People still remember that Republicans largely were responsible for the economic downturn the the resulting great recession. They are also mad at Democrats because the solutions involved spending such as the stimulus, car bailouts and a bipartisan bank bailout/TARP.
But Democrats will be able to puch the following narative most likely:
1. TARP worked, banks were saved, savings were not lost and now most of the money has been paid back and out of the $700 bilion at most 10% will be lost.
2. Car bailout worked, car companies exist, and they are now making positive cash flows and GM has repaid all the loans a year early with interest. Taxpayers may be able to get the rest og the money back (by which we bought ownership in GM and Chrysler) as those companies go public later this year before the election.
3. Poeple are getting health insurance and preexisting condition denials are ending. AARP and AMA endorsed and like the bill.
4. Stimulus clearly worked. last quarter GDP was up 5.6% and this quarter (we'll learn next week will be a solid 4+%) due to Democrat measures and the stimulus.
5. Last month we had +162,000 jobs. It has been months since job losses stopped. Next week we'll find out that April added + 200,000 new jobs at the minimum and stimulus continues at high pace into 2011.
Expect 250,000 - 400,000 jobs added per month until election and a declining unemployment rate.
Democrat pitch
ELECT REPUBLICANS AND YOU MAY SCREW THIS WHOLE THING UP AS THE RECOVERY IS ON TRACK.

If you do not trust my opinion listen to GE's Jack Welsch who said this in an interview a few weeks ago on CNBC to the surprise of the hosts who interviewed him and he based his opinion on internal reports he gets from all the investments that he has in multiple sectors of the US economy.

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StatyPolly:

Farleft,

"50 seats is not likely if the average lead for the GOP is 4 points or less."

How do you figure?

Every seat is up for reelection. If GOP wins 4% more seats than Dems, they would end up with 227 to 208 advantage. That's about 50 seat pick up from current count.

And if I buy Rasmussen's numbers of 6-8% GOP lead, they'll pick up 60-70.

In 1994 the House had almost identical composition as today. GOP picked up 54 seats. And I think anti-Dem sentiment is stronger today than it was in 94.

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GARY WAGNER:

@adocarbog,

I'm not even sure where to start since you gave me so much information.

TARP worked? TARP was Bush's program - not Obama's.

Car bailout worked and car companies are making money? In what universe? GM and Chrysler are still hemoraging money. GM didn't pay back the goverment loan - they just refinanced it by taking another $5.8 billion of TARP money. Which, by the way, was not legal until Obama changed the TARP law. You shouldn't believe everything you see on car commercials on television. Check it out yourself.

3. People are getting health insurance with pre-existing conditions? No they aren't. That doesn't start for another year and it doesn't include children. The bill was written so poorly it looks like it might not apply to adults either. AARP lost 175,000 members because they were bought off to support this healthcare bill. The majority of remaining AARP members still do not support the bill. The AMA is facing a hostile removal of its board of directors by the 65% of doctors who hate this bill.

Stimulus clearly worked? No - the stimulus clearly failed. Obama's claim was that this bill would keep unemployment below 8%. Since a year later unemployment is still at 9.7%, this bill is a total failure - according to what Obama said it would do. He set the bar and he completely missed it.

Last month we added 162,000 jobs? 60,000 of those were temproary census workers. And if we added that many jobs, why did the unemployment rate remain at 9.7%? And you are foolish enough to repeat the Biden stupidity that we will add 400,000 jobs per month until the election? But even if that happened - we will still have unemployment above 8% by November - which means that the stimulus will still be a complete failure.

You Obamazombies make this too easy for us.

The message is simple. Re-elect democrats and you continue to support the most corrupt and worst congress in history. You support starting a race war. You support higher taxes, higher costs, and destruction of the healthcare system.

I did get a chuckle out of the new slogan Obama introduced on his video begging blacks and latinos to come out and vote to make sure whitey doesn't take their free stuff away. His stroke of genius in a new slogan? "Change and hope". I kid you not. Listen to the video for yourself.


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11thGenerationAmerican:

"The message is simple. Re-elect democrats and you continue to support the most corrupt and worst congress in history."

Sorry, pal. The latest ABC/Wash. Post and FOX News polls both show a 5-point improvement in the President's job rating numbers in the past month or so. We're seeing similar movement in the generic congressional ballot. You guys peaked too early and now you're on the news every night seen defending smug, corrupt bankers. Way to pick your battles.

I find it particularly amusing that the party of Jack Abramoff would accuse anyone else of being corrupt. How many Republicans are still in prison from the last session of Congress?

LOL!

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GARY WAGNER:

The fox poll shows him coming up from 43% to 46%. Wow! Only 54% of the country hates him. Break out the drums and do a happy dance.

The ABC/WaPo poll is such a farce that even liberals are mocking it. 54% approval? In your dreams.

You mean Jack Abramoff - the man that gave all that money to Harry Reid? Is that the Abramoff you mean?

Did he give a million dollars to Obama like Goldman Sachs did?

Those corrupt smug bankers? Your idol, Obama has been in bed with Goldman Sachs since 1994. He approved ownership in the CCX which nets Goldman Sachs $5 billion per year profit in carbon credit trading. If he passes his global warming tax bill, he will through another $10 billion per year into the coffers of Goldman Sachs.

Don't about half of all the White House staff once work for Goldman Sachs? Didn't little Timmy Geitner, Obama's treasury secretary, screw Bear Sterns in order to throw $60 billion to Goldman Sachs?

Abramoff is a tiny speck compared to the Obama/Goldman Sachs connections.

The longer this financial reform farce is delayed, the more people will see how close the ties between Obama and the democrats and the wall street bankers really is.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Abramoff is a tiny speck compared to the Obama/Goldman Sachs connections."

Hank Paulson was a former GS executive. So was Robert Rubin before him. So was Don Regan before them.

There have always been strong connections between the titans of finance and U.S. gov't.

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