Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

US: National Survey (DemCorps 6/19-22)


Democracy Corps (D)/
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)
6/19-22/09; 1000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

(source)

National

Obama Job Approval
56% Approve, 36% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 89 / 6 (chart)
Reps: 17 / 74 (chart)
Inds: 50 / 39 (chart)

Favorability
Obama: 58% Favorable, 30% Unfavorable (chart)
The Republican Party: 32 / 44
The Democratic Party: 45 / 35

State of the Country
41% Right direction, 49% Wrong track (chart)

"As you may have heard, President Obama is preparing a plan to change the health care
system. From what you have heard about this plan, do you favor or oppose Obama's health
care proposal?"

    43% Favor, 38% Oppose

Party ID
39% Democrat, 29% Republican, 30% independent (chart)

 

Comments
conspiracy:

Indies the same as last month. And this is a likely voter sample which is always going to produce lower numbers than polls of adults. This is part of the reason Rasmussen always shows Obama doing worse (and always had Bush doing better) - Dem performance declines as the electorate shrinks from adults to registered voters to likely voters.

____________________

RussTC3:

Nah, I don't think that fits.

Rasmussen just historically tilts Republican, with the exception of the last few weeks of important elections. For the rest of the year, he simply puts out numbers that support his policies. Heck, nothing is more clear of that than Rasmussen's November 2008 approval numbers for President Bush (35/62).

The voters, through the exit poll data, gave a much more negative assessment: 27/71. That's an enormous 17 point difference from the actual results.

Which is why I don't put much stock in Rasmussen's numbers.

____________________

Stillow:

@RussTC3

Exit polling is probably the least accurate form of polling. Exit polls said Kerry was way ahead of Bush in 2004....exit polling is highly suspect at best.

____________________

sjt22:

@ Stillow

Not true. A properly run exit poll is probably the MOST accurate form of polling. The trick is to get the weightings correct to reflect the actual voting population. That was the problem with the early polls in 2004, raw numbers were leaked but not given proper weightings. Even then they didn't show Kerry "way ahead". He was slightly ahead but still within the margin of error, and once the proper analysis was run the exit poll results were accurate.

____________________

Stillow:

Hmmmm

http://www.oilempire.us/exitpolls.html

...eye of the beholder maybe?

____________________

sjt22:

@ Stillow

Check your link again. Look at the 1 AM exit polls (ie, the complete exit polls with proper weighting). They are either dead on or within 1 percentage point of the actual totals. Being obsessed with a set of 11 Am exit polls is like looking at the score of a baseball game in the top of the second inning and assuming that since the visitor is up a run they will eventually win.

Keep in mind that you're only focusing on one election. Were there exit poll problems in 2000? 2006? 1996? 2008? One mildly surprising result (within the margin of error and pre-weighting) isn't enough to damn exit polling as unreliable.

You're also missing the greater opportunity that exit polls provide for long term analysis. One of the best things about an exit poll is that you know true values. You know how many people voted for each candidate in each precinct, so you can weight your data precisely. While this isn't useful for election night prediction of results, it can be very useful for studying the attitudes and demographics of voters.

____________________

Stillow:

@sjt22

My liberal freinds always send me to that site telling me the exit polls showed Kerry winning...once all the votes had been counted the pollsters move there #'s to match the count to look like they were accurate. I recall that was a big thing in 2004, many liberals thought Bush rigged the election because exit poll data had kerry ahead....then they changed the data after the actual votes came in and were fully counted mostly. So I guess its on how you interprate them. Edwards I think wanted to challenge Ohio because he said the exit polls didn't match the actual vote, but Kerry refused since he didn't want to be like Gore or whatever reason.
That is just what a lot of libs say, the exit polls shoed bush doing much more poorly than actually ahppened and they say the pollsters and networks modify there exit polls later on to match the count to maintain legitimacy....maybe they are just conspiracy theorists or maybe your right....I don't know.

____________________

RussTC3:

The first exit polls are inaccurate. The final exit polls are weighted and are pretty much spot-on.

That's the point you are missing.

____________________

IdahoMulato:

Ras always tilt his poll numbers to give repubs something to cheer about. However, he gets closer to everybody very close to elction day or on election day.

____________________

sjt22:

@ Stillow

As a Kerry voter and a person who disliked Bush immensely, I say those libs are wrong. When you're on the losing side its natural to try to find excuses. Take some half complete exit polls which show Kerry winning, combine with the fact that the CEO of the voting machine company was BFFs with Bush, and you get a situation which looks pretty fishy. Nevertheless the election appears to be above board.

It just gets me going when people dismiss a legitimate polling method because of one perceived screwup without examining why things might have been wrong and not crediting it for all of its successes.

____________________

Stephen_W:

Notwithstanding that Scott Rasmussen (the person) is a hardcore evangelical republican, can someone explain to me why Rasmussen the respected pollster calculates his presidential approval rating by taking the difference between those who Strongly Approve and Strongly Disapprove, ignoring everyone else? Seems like all he's calculating is the difference between die-hard Democrats vs. die-hard Republicans, which I would assume would be just about even regardless of most factors in post-Rovian American society.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR