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US: National Survey (Democracy Corps 6/19-22)


Democracy Corps (D)
6/19-22/10; 1,001 2008 voters, 3.1% margin of error
867 likely 2010 voters, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Democracy Corps release)

National

State of the Country
32% Right Direction, 61% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
46% Approve, 50% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 46 / 50 (chart)
Oil Spill: 43 / 50

Favorable / Unfavorable
Republican Party: 35 / 42
Democratic Party: 38 / 46
Democratic Congress: 34 / 48
Barack Obama: 49 / 40 (chart)
Elena Kagan: 23 / 26

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
2008 voters: 46% Republican, 43% Democrat
Likely 2010 voters: 48% Republican, 42% Democrat (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Stupid Americans!!!!!

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Field Marshal:

Likely 2010 voters: 48% Republican, 42% Democrat

If that holds in Nov, it would be a 60 seat swing easily, especially with the enthusiasm gap figured in.

OUCH. Pelosi and Reid are not doing any favors for Obama. Of course, Obama isn't exactly helping himself either.

But, I'm sure the 20% who favor the US suing AZ will help the Dems. Right Melvin?

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Farleftandproud:

Why even publish a poll like this if it was founded by James Carville. He has become a great pessimist, however I don't see any documentation about party affiliation.

If Democrats are going to do polls like these, they should look up the actual proportion of Registered Dems vs Republicans nationally as well as Independents and use that model and account for it.

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Farleftandproud:

"I'm sure the 20% who favor the US suing AZ will help the Dems. Right Melvin?"

It may not help the Dems this year, but I would rather see a president stand up for racial profiling and pay the price by losing some racist white folks, than to cave in to a heinous law and be popular.

Nelson Mandela, Mikhael Gorbachev and Winston Churchill weren't always the most popular people of their time, but what they stood up for redefined history.

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Paleo:

This is an ugly poll anyway you slice it. No way to sugar coat it. The only good thing is that it is over two weeks old.

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RWCOLE:

Most polls now show the goopers with a slight lead in the generic ballot- 48-46 or so.

These polls will move one way or the other by election day. Dems may be at a low point. If the news on the economy improves, a three point shit would result in a 49-45 dem advantage.

It's way too early to handicap this election. We'll know something by Labor Day.

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Paleo:

"Why even publish a poll like this if it was founded by James Carville."

Why? You want them to be like Rassmussen?

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ProfAlan:

Among likely voters in this DCorps poll, Republican identifiers and leaners comprise 47% of the sample and Democratic identifiers and leaners, 46%. See question 103.

If the number of Republicans showing up to the polls in November equals or exceeds the number of Democrats, that will be a sharp break with 2006 and 2008.

http://courses.ttu.edu/hdfs3390-reifman/weighting.htm

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HookedOnPolls:

The wuss is a screw-up.

From today's Politico

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39503.html

Obama began his visit with a tour of Smith Electric Vehicles, a company that received some $32 million in stimulus funds. The tour was perfunctory, and his speech, had the feel of a sidebar to a main event. The president walked out to the podium without being announced, finding more than a few empty chairs and a surprised audience that belatedly rose to its feet.


“I think I messed up, I just walked out here,” Obama said, noting that usually he gets a grand announcement.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39503.html#ixzz0t7SbAzTG

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Field Marshal:

Profalan,

Do you not think that the election of 2010 will be a sharp break from the prior two elections? I don't think anyone is denying that it will be.

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Farleftandproud:

Can anyone find how many R's vs D's vs indies were interviewed? Liberal or conservative, any poll that doesn't list that data, I don't take seriously.

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Mike E:

Those Reich-wing meenies at Democracy Corps!

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Mike E:

@FLAP

"Nelson Mandela, Mikhael Gorbachev and Winston Churchill weren't always the most popular people of their time, but what they stood up for redefined history."

The same goes for Bush Jr regarding the liberation of Iraq.

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lat:

Go to political wire to see Sharon Angle's latest off the wall comments regarding abortion and rape of a teenager. I am going to wait with baited breath to see how the righties on here defend this.

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HookedOnPolls:

Paleo: " The only good thing is that it is over two weeks old."

Well here's today's results:

Gallup July 8, 2010

Economic Confidence Sinks Even as Jobs Picture Holds Steady Fewer say the economy is "getting better" than at any time in the past year

and

RealClearPolitics average today:

(drum roll please since this is the worst I've seen since His election)

President Obama Job Approval

Approve 46.1
Disapprove 48.0
Spread -1.9


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RWCOLE:

What's the Real Politics average if you throw out Rasmussen?

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RWCOLE:

What's the Real Politics average if you throw out Rasmussen?

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RWCOLE:

What's the Real Politics average if you throw out Rasmussen?

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Mike E:

@RWCOLE

-0.7

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Stillow:

farleft - i am curious. is that the lefts new strategy? To call americans stupid for not going along with the far left liberal crap that the Dems are pushing right now?

Sounds like a winning strategy to me! please keep it up!

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seg:

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
2008 voters: 46% Republican, 43% Democrat
Likely 2010 voters: 48% Republican, 42% Democrat"

Looks like a flaming liberal pollster has almost the same results as Rasmussen, probably because both are using LV for 2010.

Their voter screen looks about right considering that 2008 voters show about the expected difference, which is a +3 for Republicans. Hence, Rasmussen's voter screen is corroborated. A handy denial narrative struck down in its prime. Of course, a +5 LV effect for Republicans could be too modest.

When all pollsters start using LV in September, the full dimensions of the blow out will be undeniable, assuming nothing earthshaking happens between now and then.

As I said in my past post, if this is a throw the bum's out moment, you would expect the "the incumbent flatlines" phenomonen to operate. The great majority of undecideds will vote Republican because voters are intensely unhappy and demos are not only the incumbents, they have been running roughshod over voter preferences.

We will see.

If it looks like a Republican big win, if I set the Republican strategy, I would pound on truly stupid demos comments about using the Nov - Jan interim to pass card-check and the like.

Before any liberals become suicidal, let me point out a silver lining: you, too, will be spared the full effects of demo stupidities when they lose the power to impose them. Note that the IMF (headed by a socialist) just warned that the US needs to bring its financial house in order much sooner than Obama seems to be claiming he will do.

How humiiiating. What's next, having Communists lecture us on fiscal responsibility? Whoops! Chinese have been doing that for months.

How about having Sovient era thugs warn us of the dangers of a command-control economy? Putin advised Obama months ago, "We tried that. It did not work."

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Farleftandproud:

There ya go again? Calling Obama a Communist? And someone had the nerve to critisize me for calling some republican Homophobes and war mongers Fascists? What goes around comes around.

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Field Marshal:

Who called Obama a communist? Farleft, you need to suppress all the voices in your head. Especially the ones telling you to set fires and buy a gun. You're moving into Melvin territory for nuttiness.

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Field Marshal:

As always seg, great post. I think this poll and the Gallup one, confirms Rass' accuracy.

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Stillow:

FM - they cannot confirm Rass. that owuld mean rass is, gulp, a legit pollster and not a right wing hack!

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HookedOnPolls:

Obama is not a Communist.

A European-Socialist? Yes! But not a Communist.

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Beowulf687:

Farleft

"Stupid Americans!!!!!" -Is this how you lefties view the american people? When the polls were going the other direction were they enlightened, nuanced, and intelligent but now stupid? Such elitists...The R's will take the house and get 7 to 9 Senators just watch.

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Beowulf687:

Farleft

"Stupid Americans!!!!!" -Is this how you lefties view the american people? When the polls were going the other direction were they enlightened, nuanced, and intelligent but now stupid? Such elitists...The R's will take the house and get 7 to 9 Senators just watch.

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RWCOLE:

What's the Real Politics average if you throw out Rasmussen?

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Farleftandproud:

HookedOnPolls:
Obama is not a Communist.

A European-Socialist? Yes! But not a Communist.


A European Style socialist is a good thing, but if the tea party had posters calling him that, too many people who like that system would say they are correct. I think the Hitler or CHairman Mao comparisons have more of an impact and the Tea party extremists have had success. I remember the far right did that when Bill Clinton was president.

I knew some really religious conservatives who said we were becoming a communist country. I had to correct them that trying to have universal health coverage or make the very rich pay more taxes, is not communism, it is what I call a social Democracy. Nevertheless, I don't think the naysayers and those right wing people on the fringe will ever change.

I think over the years I have moved further to the left because I have seen the misinformation first hand. I know many conservatives and sometimes I would like to argue with them, but it is pointless. They are aware of what I believe, and I don't intend to change them.

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Farleftandproud:

"Beowulf687:
Farleft

"Stupid Americans!!!!!" -Is this how you lefties view the american people? "

Okay, well I'll say there are some stupid Americans who don't really know the issues very well and don't know what is going on and fail to show up to the polls. This is more true among liberals. Yes, I think that it is horrible that there is such low turnout in this country, and I think that the education system in much of the country doesn't do a good job at teaching history and politics.

I have to hand it to religious schools and those right wing churches, that they get people interested in politics; they can get fired up and are loyal voters.

The people I am calling stupid are the people who don't think their vote counts. I think it is someone's right to not vote, but for those who supported Obama and came out to vote for him, will do a huge disservice if they don't turn out in 2010. The election isn't about Democrats and Republicans, it is about the AMerican people.

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JMSTiger:

Just another sign of the coming bloodbath for the Democratic Party in November. They had their fun spending trillions, running up massive deficits and further enlarging the size of the Federal government (much like LBJ and the Democrats did until the '66 midterms and Clinton and the Democrats until the '94 midterms). Now, the backlash comes. The independents have swung to the right and they want a check on Obama and the left. The libs better get what remains of their agenda rammed through the Congress between now and December, because starting in January, it is over. "Yes we can!" will suddenly become "No we can't!".

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seg:

Farleftandproud:
Remember: with great ignorance comes great stupidity.

Seriously, I decided long ago that the American public has an extremely good record over the long term. We have not elected a single would be dictator or king. How many other societies can say the same?

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Farleftandproud:

seg:
Farleftandproud:
"Remember: with great ignorance comes great stupidity.

Seriously, I decided long ago that the American public has an extremely good record over the long term. We have not elected a single would be dictator or king. How many other societies can say the same?"

I beg to differ with you and I am sure you differ with me. Bush and Cheney did a lot of things that were dictatorial. Cheney even said "you can't critisize your government during war time". If Obama said that, probably 40 million tea partiers who rally all over the country.

Our country was not a democracy well until there was universal suffrage.

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seg:

Farleftandproud:
"Bush and Cheney did a lot of things that were dictatorial. Cheney even said "you can't critisize your government during war time". If Obama said that, probably 40 million tea partiers who rally all over the country."

Actually, wasn't it Hoyer who not long ago said Tea-Partiers were "traitors" ? Pelosi said a number of ugly things about them. I don't recall TPs having a rally about either one.

Also, given that Obama has extended and in some cases augmented every national security thing liberal dems pointed at in horror, why are you not worried about "King" Obama?

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Beowulf687:

Farleft, Thanks for the clarification.

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