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US: National Survey (Economist 2/7-9)

Topics: poll

YouGov / Economist
2/7-9/10; 1,000 adults, 3.7% margin of error
Mode: Internet
(Economist release)

National

Obama Job Approval
48% Approve, 47% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 82 / 14 (chart)
Reps: 11 / 88 (chart)
Inds: 41 / 54 (chart)
Economy: 38 / 54 (chart)
Health Care: 39 / 53 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
11% Approve, 63% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
47% Democrat, 39% Republican (chart)

State of the Country
31% Right Direction, 56% Wrong Track (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Nancy Pelosi: 28 / 54
Harry Reid: 20 / 46
John Boehner: 21 / 27
Mitch McConnell: 18 / 30
Barack Obama: 52 / 45 (chart)
Joe Biden: 43 / 45
Sarah Palin: 39 / 54 (chart)
Hillary Clinton: 59 / 35 (chart)
Democratic Party: 41 / 48
Republican Party: 33 / 55

Overall, given what you know about them, do you support or oppose the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by Congress and the Obama Administration?
46% Support, 54% Oppose (chart)

 

Comments
BH:

Wild poll, but yet again, more bad news for the Dems..and what's with the generic ballot results?

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Stillow:

The generic polling seems to be all over the place with every pollsters....

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jamesia:

I find the last question really vague. There are several different proposals being discussed for HCR. There should also be a follow up question to discover what people don't like about the proposals. Since the public option still is very popular, I'd assume that's what people don't like about the Senate bill, but who knows...

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Uchenna Oguekwe:

@BH
How is this a bad poll for the Dems? Despite the majority of respondents saying not likely the track the country is on, they still favor the Dems by 8 points. Not only that, Dems have a better fav/unfav rating than Repubs. If anything, this proves that the people are upset with Congress in general and that is something that effects both side.

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Stillow:

Uchenna Oguekwe:

Based on your own analysis, the nit is indeed bad for the Dems. I agree people are mad at Congress, which is currently overwhelmingly controlled by Dems....so in turn that will harm them much more than the GOP in upcoming elections....as incumbants take a big hit.....there are simply more D incumbants, so there losses will be heavy.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"so in turn that will harm them much more than the GOP in upcoming elections"

Much like the republicans in 1982. The democrats made a major mistake, however, in thinking that the republican message had been thoroughly discredited in such a short time and their gains meant good times were here again for their ideas. So much so that they decided to run their former vice president against Reagan. Once the economy recovered, people remembered what they didn't like about the democrats and the previous democratic administration. The structural advantages belonged to republicans, particularly relating to the new crops of voters.

I don't think people have forgotten what they didn't like about the Bush era. If the republicans engage in the same type of actions that they did under Bush (which I think they will if they gain control), the political climate will snap right back to the democrats again.

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Stillow:

aaron - you ugys keep going back to Bush.....blaming Bush isn't go to get you anywhere anymore....it was a gun with one bullet which you used in 2008. Bush spent to much money......tons of conservatives are out tthere saying that......the GOP got the message. they were elected as conservatives and governed like big spenders.

O is basically Carter's 2nd term....and the people tossed Carter out. So to arugue what each party engages is is kinda silly cus you can take it back further and further. Carter policies the people hated, reagan policies they loved, Clinton they loved, Bush they didn't......it depends much on the man in ofice and how true he stays to his beleifs....Bush failed.....Carter failed, while reagan and clinton succeeded. Though I would argue Clinton was more fiscally conservative due to the congress he had to work with.

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obamalover:

@ Stillow

Except if you look at the generic ballot people would still rather vote for Democrats.

It is not a wild poll at all. People hate Democrats. But they hate Republicans much more. If the economy keeps on improving then that '94 tidal wave speculation will become a joke.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Stillow, you obviously know nothing about Carter's term or policies, or else you wouldn't compare him to Obama. John McCain made this argument during the campaign, and right wing media continues to.

Explain to me what policy similarities they have. On health care for example, I think you'll find Carter's 1977 health care proposal to be very unambitious. It involved mostly cost containment concerning medicare payments to hospitals and a children's health insurance plan.

Carter was a micro-manager and he was a committed evangelical Christian. These are in stark contrast to Obama, who often delegates leadership and in my opinion does not have strong religious convictions.

There are some vague similarities based on public opinion of economic circumstances, but they hit Carter in the last two years of his term while they have hit Obama in the first year. Carter dealt with high inflation, interest rates, and a major energy crisis. A very different situation economically from the last couple years where we saw a lot of wealth simply disappear and consumer confidence drop like a rock.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"you ugys keep going back to Bush.....blaming Bush isn't go to get you anywhere anymore."

You also don't read what I write. You see what you want to see. I wrote: "If THE REPUBLICANS engage in the same type of actions that they did UNDER Bush." Bush himself was not what I meant, nor did I blame Bush for anything in that statement.

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Xenobion:

I'm excited for the double dip recession at the point people elect republicans back into congress since they started the recession.

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GARY WAGNER:

The November election is all based on three people - Obama, Reid, and Pelosi. Obama has a 48% approval, Reid has 20% and Pelosi has 28%. Congress has an 11% approval. This is a bad year for incumbents. Democrats have run congress for 3 years now and the presidency for one. They will get the brunt of the backlash from the voters.

Those cheering about the 47/39 split toward democrats on the generic congressional ballot should do some research. First of all, this is the only poll that is that favorable toward democrats. RCP shows an average of generic ballot polls at 45/43 republicans over democrats right now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html

You should also do some checking that shows that generic polls historically show more support for democrats than actually show up at the polls.

All in all, this makes things look pretty bleak for Democrats this fall.

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