US: National Survey (Fox 3/16-17)
Emily Swanson | March 19, 2010
Topics: poll
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics
3/16-17/10; 900 registered voters, 35 margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fox release)
National
Obama Job Approval
46% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 80 / 15 (chart)
Reps: 12 / 84 (chart)
Inds: 47 / 45 (chart)
Congressional Job Approval
18% Approve, 76% Disapprove (chart)
Based on what you know about the health care reform legislation being considered right now, do you favor or oppose the plan?
35% Favor, 55% Oppose (chart)
Party ID
40% Democrat, 37% Republican, 18% independent (chart)
Comments
40% surveyed were Dems and health care got 35% favorability. So all Reps and Indies plus 5% do not support the HCR. Interesting.
Posted on March 19, 2010 2:25 PM
The 35% support for the health care reform bill looks pretty dire. However, there was another item in the survey (#34) that asked:
"Which one of the following comes closest to what you would like to see lawmakers do next if Congress passes a health care bill -- would you like lawmakers to repeal the bill, expand the bill, or leave it as is?"
"Leave as is" (18%) plus "Expand" (29%) add up to 47%, which slightly exceeds "Repeal" (45%). Just another apparent demonstration that a sizable chunk of the opposition is from people who wish the legislation would do more (e.g., a public option).
Posted on March 19, 2010 2:26 PM
It is going to be a glorious moment watching John Bohner and Mitch McConnell have to eat crow on HCR. The GOP has failed miserably on this! All there tea party crap, trying to scare people with misinformation, etc., has finally backfired. In a strange way I am glad Scott Brown won because that's when the dems finally found their balls once again. Give Obama credit for not giving up.
Posted on March 19, 2010 2:40 PM
Way to cherry pick, Professor.
Found one little item in a litany of damning data.
How about item 25?
Pass current Reform 30%
Start over 46%
Do nothing 19%
Item 35?
"Which one of the following comes closest to what you would like to see lawmakers do next if Congress DOESN’T pass a health care bill this year -- would you like lawmakers to:
Keep trying to pass the current bill 19%
Start over from scratch with a new bill 42%
Drop it and work on other issues 36%"
Your best bet is to dismiss it outright since it is a Faux poll.
You're welcome..
Posted on March 19, 2010 2:50 PM
Keep that champagne on ice.
Even if the House passes this round, it's still a loooong way from a done deal. Senate GOP has a few tricks up their sleeves, from what I am reading, PLUS... I can't imagine the Supremes refusing to hear this. If it ever goes that far.
Nor can I see them justifying individual and other mandates. Among a number of other things.
People HATE this thing with a passion, and there are plenty of snags to hang your hat on.
I gotta run, but you guys stay vigilant;-)
Posted on March 19, 2010 2:59 PM
I'm glad Scot Brown won too because it forced the Dems to use tricks and underhanded methods in order to pass their garbage bill. This will lead to even more hatred of Govt and more losses in Nov. Kudos.
Posted on March 19, 2010 3:03 PM
I'm not sure I understand the arithmetic in this poll. It claims to show a 46-48 negative approval for Obama. However, when you look at the breakdowns, Dems were 80-15 favorable, independents were 47-45 favorable and Reps were 12-84 negative. The population was 40% Dem, 37% Rep and 18% Ind. (I'm not sure what category the other 5% fit into!).
So if the Dems were virtually as positive as the Reps were negative, and the Indies were also favorable, how can the entire poll show unfavorable?
Posted on March 19, 2010 3:26 PM
If your are trying to tell me that the country is 40% Democrat,and 37% Republican and only 18% independent= i need a moment to laugh in your face! This is beyond ridiculous!
Posted on March 19, 2010 3:58 PM
As with all Fox News polls, there's nothing fundamentally wrong with them in terms of sampling; they just ask too many questions in a single survey, resulting in the poisoning of the well.
The HCR numbers on this poll are far more negative than any other polling organisation - even Rasmussen - despite the fact that the approval numbers for Obama aren't too far from the mean. The sole reason for that is the fact that in between the job approval questions and the HCR questions, there's a whole bunch of questions which contain negative, anti-incumbent messages.
I don't think it's invalid to ask those questions, it's just that when you pile them all into a single survey, it leads to unreliable results. That has been shown time and time again with Fox News surveys.
Posted on March 20, 2010 9:56 AM
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