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US: National Survey (Fox 9/1-2)

Topics: National , poll

Fox News / Opinions Dynamics
9/1-2/10; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fox: Obama, 2010, Economy, Iraq)

National

Obama Job Approval
46% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 80 / 15 (chart)
Reps: 14 / 83 (chart)
Inds: 40 / 50 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
22% Approve, 70% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Republican, 37% Democrat (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 50 / 46 (chart)

State of the Country
32% Satisfied, 68% Not satisfied (chart)

Party ID
39% Democrat, 37% Republican, 20% independent (chart)

 

Comments
lat:

Fox network is a biased piece of crap, but their polls tend to be reasonable. Obama is about even here which I guess one could argue is decent for a Fox poll, but as I said I don't find Fox polling to be that out of whack with other polls generally.

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StatyPolly:

Four days ago, Gallup had BO up 2, and Ras down only 3. BOBO best showing in over a month for both.

Today, Ras is down to -14 and Gallup -6. Guess the Iraq speech didn't play so well. Seems Americans approve of his job performance much better when he is on vacation.

Can he take a hint?

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iVote:

+4 from the last Fox poll.

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Cederico:

Staty Polly you are so wrong. His number went up after the speech in the CNN and FOX Polls.

The reason for the hit he is seeing in Gallup and Rasmussen is very likely related to the mediocre jobs numbers or it could just be that a very strong night of pollimg dropped off the 3/4 day samples they use.

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Farleftandproud:

Wierd that Obama is almost up to 50/50 but the GOP leads the generic by 9. I still think that the generic will come down to region by region, and how big the Democrats turnout.

It is possible that Democrats could lose 10 seats in the south by 35 points each, but could narrowly win some races in battleground states like IL, PA or CA.

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Fred:

@Cederico

You just said StatyPoly was so wrong, but then your argument was almost identical to his. StatyPoly was saying that the Obama speech gave only a small temporary bump, but didn't make any permanent marks, which is true. With the jobs report, Obama is at 42% on rasmussen and 43% on gallup. This fox news poll must have been with the bump, and outdated already. We can all agree that most people do not approve of Obama's job performance.

I don't understand why some of you people only think polls show the right results when they show you the results you hope to see. Lately, you guys have been treating rasmussen the same as well. I'm still waiting to hear you guys admit you're wrong about rasmussen being a GOP pollster. If any pollster has been right-leaning, it's been SUSA. Rasmussen and PPP are both doing pretty good jobs it seems at giving polls that are accurate.... or at least in line with one another. Lately gallup and rasmussen have been about equal as well.

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billwy:

@FLAP:
That scenario is pretty much the best hope the Dems have this cycle.
But I would caution about to much hope in that scenario. I posted a long post on her in 2008 about how I thought it was possible the electoral college would be very close. My thesis was essentially yours. Bush won in 2000 without the popular vote, and McCain was only down by 5-6 in the polls nationally. I believed that 5-6 point lead could come from a concentration of of states that Gore carried in 2000 which McCain didn't need...it didn't matter if he lost Wisconsin by 1 or by 10.
But obviously the EC ended up strongly reflecting the popular vote polling. Just throwing that out there...

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StatyPolly:

Both Gallup and Ras daily trackers are three-day rolling averages. Today's numbers are for polling done on Wed/Thu/Fri. The recent high point in BO approval was four days ago, on Tuesday. Iraq speech was Tuesday night. It's probably more of a coincident than anything else, but it's fun to goof on his job approval going up when he is out vacationing. No big deal.

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Farleftandproud:

Well the two closest battleground districts to me, NY 20th, and NH 23rd, the Democratic candidates have worked extremely hard to reach out, and the economy in these districts has improved slightly. I think Murphy and Owens will keep their jobs. One NH seat held by Paul Hodes is probably going to Kevin Bass and the Republicans, but the one held by Shea Porter, will stay Democratic, because she has been a strong energetic leader, and she has the more moderate of the two districts.

I presume that the Democrats will concede certain districts they know they will not win, and spend more money on just enough districts like these to try to keep the majority.

I personally think the GOP will not win as many house seats as people think. I looked at a map, that had 46 seats going to the GOP today and one that had 36. I predict that as the election gets closer, Democrats will hit the GOP hard on their hypocrisy, on the miserable way they have failed to negotiate with Obama, and regardless of that they have had no class.

The Southwestern US will be key to the Dems holding Congress. I predict that Arizona will have closer elections than expected, HIspanics will come out strong in COlorado with Tancredo on the ticket, Nevada and NM have fairly strong GOP gubernatorial candidates, which may not be as bad for them, however New Mexico Obama has fairly high approval.

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Farleftandproud:

I think that the DNC should decide in a week or two to cut their losses in seats they probably won't win. Once the NH and DE primaries are over, they should look at the polls and pick 5 races they can save for the Dems.

My Top 5 they should spend serious money on First, IL, NV, WI, CA and Wash. and the runner ups would be CO and PA. I think Colorado Dems can still win, because of having Tancredo and Maes on the ballot, and they can paint Buck as one step short of sanity. The infighting in the GOP governors race, might bring the party down, and I think that strong hispanic turnout, and younger people might be more likely to be moved by colorful characters in the GOP, bringing strong turnout.

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LordMike:

"+4 from the last Fox poll."

Well, yeah... they didn't oversample Republicans this time! Last time they had more republican registered voters than democrats, which is laughable... They still are oversampling republicans, but not by laughable amounts this time.

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LordMike:

Staty,

It's called Labor Day weekend... Democrats are out on vacation, while crusty old conservatives are waiting to answer the phone on Friday night.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"It's called Labor Day weekend... Democrats are out on vacation, while crusty old conservatives are waiting to answer the phone on Friday night."

Because stereotyping people is the best way to explain their behavior.

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Fred:

It's called labor day weekend. Republicans are on vacation and democrats are on vacation too...............like they always are.
Hey look, I just stereotyped dems the same way lordmike stereotyped reps.

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Gtfan4ever:

"It is possible that Democrats could lose 10 seats in the south by 35 points each, but could narrowly win some races in battleground states like IL, PA or CA"

Republicans were up by 8 or 9 in PA on PPP's last survey.

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melvin:

Its amazing how the American people might reward the GOP this Nov for creating the biggest economic disaster in this Country history...All the Dems is trying to do is fix the mess the GOP left!!!

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melvin:

Fox News is so full of it...No one in the News business repects Fox,thats probaly why Major Garret left,and also why Chris Wallace might be following him..Fox News is just a big circus with clown acts

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melvin:

The Dems should learn from Oct 3 of 2008 when they practically saved the GOP ass,because if the Dems didn't bail Bush's ass out that day the GOP would have been finished for good!Damn was they stupid.

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melvin:

54pct of Americans think Clinton was the president when 911 happened,and 60pct of Americans think Obama signed the tarp bill,that just shows you how un-informed Americans are.

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melvin:

54pct of Americans think Clinton was the president when 911 happened,and 60pct of Americans think Obama signed the tarp bill,that just shows you how un-informed Americans are.

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melvin:

Most economic experts said if the Dems would'nt have bailed Bush out in 2008,the unemployment rate would have been 12pct when Obama took office.

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melvin:

The main reason the Dems came to Bush's rescue was because Obama supported the bill..That move by Obama in the Dems have to be the dumbest move in political history..What a bunch of suckers they were.

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melvin:

Do you think the GOP would bail Obama out if he was in the same position that Bush was in 2008? The answer is HELL NO!!

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Dave:

Are these the same "economic experts" who said unemployment would never get this high if Congress passed the stimulus?

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melvin:

Dave: The people who said that was the Obama Whitehouse idiot.

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Farleftandproud:

Melvin. I don't understand the New Right. These tea partiers like Angle, and the new guy in Alaska act like 7th graders trying to disrupt the teacher. Obama is like the teacher, who is getting annoyed, and I think it is beginning to show.

I mean, I can't for the life of me, understand how Rand Paul could be getting 32 percent of Democratic support in KY. If I were DNC chairman, I would like to simply throw them out of the party. I don't understand why these white idiots in a few states like TN, KY, AR, LA would actually register Democrat if they vote for the likes of Vitter and Rand Paul. It is stupid for them, because I don't know why they want to associate with a party they see as too liberal, and makes it tougher for their party's candidate, because on paper it looks like they can win, when in reality, they won't if 25-30 percent of white Southern democrats vote Republican on a National level. It is pointless.

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