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US: National Survey (Ipsos 10/29-11/1)


Ipsos / McClatchy
1,077 adults, 3% margin of error
525 Democrats, 4.3% margin of error
446 Republicans, 4.7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Ipsos release)

National

State of the Country
38% Right Direction, 57% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval / Disapproval
53% Approve, 43% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 82 / 15 (chart)
Reps: 21 / 78 (chart)
Inds: 45 / 41 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
29% Approve, 68% Disapprove (chart)

Has the U.S. economy turned the corner on the current crisis, is the worst yet to come, or have things stabilized but not yet begun to improve?
7% Turned the corner, 32% Worst yet to come, 59% Stabilized but yet to improve

2010 House: Generic Ballot
48% Democrat, 41% Republican (chart)

As of right now, do you favor or oppose the healthcare reform proposals presently being discussed?
39% Favor, 49% Oppose (chart)

Creation of a public entity to directly compete with existing health insurance companies.
51% Favor, 43% Oppose

Legislation to permit the creation of insurance co-operatives NOT run by the government.
57% Favor, 35% Oppose

Party ID
34% Democrat, 22% Republican, 44% independent (chart)

 

Comments
tjampel:

First, I was completely wrong on Corzine/Christie; I hedged the day before (thinking it was tied) but enthusiasm was all with Christie; Corzine's money couldn't buy that in the end. So...hat's off to those who saw the future better than I did.

Also, unlike what some liberal pundits have said, I do think it was a bad day for Democrats, though both elections turned on local issues. Local Dem voters didn't show up. That could be a big problem next year. If there's nothing to get them excited Dems will be in trouble.

Second, NY23 may have interesting repercussions in CA, FL, even PA (Gov), I'm now hearing. Dems should welcome these ideological purity tests for Republicans. If we're wrong and the country wants strong right-wing voices in our government that's their choice. They wanted Bush W and got him ....twice.

Generic ballot seems to be holding pretty steady; about 3 points less of a Dem advantage than last year at this time. I think that's pretty good for Dems, given that the economy is still in shambles and there's been no relief from near 10% unemployment for so long. Most people think we are bottoming out; they're probably not expecting things to improve in the near term. It's the Dem's job (and they have to pray for it to happen) to make sure that unemployment starts going down sometime in the second quarter of 2010. If it's 10% a year from now that spells disaster.

The House Health Care bill has both a public option and coops, from what I've read. This seems to be the soundest way to go, if an opt-out provision is also going to be included.

If States may opt-out and then coops can operate in those states. What I'd like to see is a provision for States administering health care themselves if they don't want the Fed doing so. California passed such a bill already but it was vetoed by Arnold.

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I see the phrase "public option" in nearly every poll measuring attitudes on health care reform. Has anyone tried to understand what respondents believe the "public option" is?

Based on other polls that try to define public option in the context of their question, I sense that respondents don't know that "public option" is a euphemism for government-run health insurance.

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Xenobion:

Isn't government-run health insurance just the exact same euphamism? You'd have to be in a hole by now to not understand this issue.

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Stillow:

By 10 points people still oppose the Dems health care plans.....

X, much of this country lives in a hole, you know that!

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Xenobion:

True! but I think people know what they're answering when the words "public entity" are there. I still belive a public option to be wanted by 50% of the country when you average most of these polls.

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Stillow:

Perhaps a poll asking do you favor a public option...and then after that ask do you favor g'ment run health care.....I bet you would get enormously different answers.....

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Xenobion:

You have to ask it in a southern accent as well. The twang is key!

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RAG2:

@ Stillow:

You want to have it both ways. You assume that Americans, after all these months of debate, don't know what a "public option" means wen they support it, yet they understand what the entire health-care bill contains when they oppose it. By the way, whether there's net support or net opposition to the health-care bill depends on the specific poll; it's easy to cherry-pick to come up with results you like. As for the public option, it's been presented to voters SEVERAL different ways, and nearly all polls show net support for it--varying from high-40's plurality to high-70's majority.

As you no doubt know, I've been daring Reps to come up with their own bill AND have it rated by the Congressional Budget Office; well, they finally did it, and guess what? It doesn't do anything meaningful. Of the 47 million uninsured, only 3 million--6%--are covered, and the most egregious health-care practices--denying insurance to people with pre-existing conditions and dropping sick people--are STILL ALLOWED! Even the deficit reduction is LESS than what the Democratic plans save. Some reform from the GOP!

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