Articles and Analysis


US: National Survey (Kos 9/7-10)

Daily Kos (D) / Research 2000
9/7-10/09; 2,400 adults, 2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)


Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 56 / 39 (chart)
Nancy Pelosi: 33 / 59
Harry Reid: 30 / 59
Mitch McConnell: 18 / 64
John Boehner: 14 / 62
The Democratic Party: 40 / 51
The Republican Party: 22 / 68

State of the Country
39% Right Direction, 55% Wrong track (chart)


Mark in LA:

One of several thousand differences between the current President, and our former President, is that Obama gives a hell of a speech. Besides Bush's short talk to firefighters on the rubble of the WTC, I can not recall a single George W. Bush speech that that moved public opinion in the direction he wanted to move it. One possible exception: All the speeches in which Bush convinced a majority of Americans that Saddam Hussein had WMD's, he was an imminent threat, and as Condi so tactfully put it, we needed to invade Iraq to prevent "a mushroom cloud over an American city."
In the end, it will make no difference if they do not pass a bill. This bump will be short-lived unless they get something done.



It's quite funny actually that the GOP has become so inept. They had Obama on the ropes for a short time so what do they do? Send out the nut jobs to yell at people at town hall meetings, hold rallys in which Obama is called illegitimate and so on and so forth. This probelm for the GOP started with Bill Clinton and has simply manifested ever since. Hey GOP wake up to the reality that trying to scare the crap out of white suburban voters doesn't work anymore! You have lost the popular vote in 4 out of the last 5 elections and in 04 W should have wiped the floor with John Kerry and yet barley beat him by 2 points and that was only because Karl Rove managed to find every evangelical voter on the planet to make it happen. You cannot no longer lose minority voters by 5 and 6 to 1 margins and win a national election (Sorry to disappoint you, but there are too many of them, in addtion don't give me the bs that Obama was the 1st black candidate. This problem started for the GOP long before anyone knew who Barack Obama was), in addtion in 08 you got crushed among college educated women (Obama took them by almost 20 points). So here is my advice for what it is worth- Run a ticket that is more libertarian in nature that is going to stay the hell out of peoples bedrooms and personal lives, in addition keep Jesus where he belongs which is in church. Next try to reach out to minorities in a constructive way if you are capable of such a thing. As stated earlier the days of Reagan are long gone and it is time for a new strategy.



Looking at the dates for this poll, and considering Kos's numbers on Mon. and Tues. had Obama at 52%, it seems like he definitely got a sizeable bounce from the speech (around 5 pts), no doubt helped by the visuals of the night and Fightin' Joe Wilson losing his mind in the Chamber. Say what you will about Pres. Obama, but that was unprecedented and shameful behavior by Wilson. Obama's lost Republicans for good (not like he ever had them anyways), so he was solely speaking to moderate Democrats, Indies and those crazy gullable seniors, and I think it bought him enough capital to push this thing through over the finish line.

Republicans seriously overplayed their hand on this thing, and went for the lethal blow, when a weakened President combined with strong counter legislation and "healthy" debate (ie-not death panels and free healthcare for illegals) probably would have done the trick. At some point they have to stop listening to Rush and start trying to help fix the country.




Its just a bounce. Bounces are to be expected after a speech or a primary win for example. A recent example for you to look at is VA, McDonnell was way ahead, then Deeds won his primary and all of a sudden Deeds took a little lead, now we are back to McDonnel way ahead again. The bump will pass, a week or two perhaps and we wil lbe right back where we started from. With about a 10 point deficit in Obama's health approval.

And it was not the correct setting for Wilson to call Obama a liar, i agree with Wilson that Obama is being misleading, but don't do it in that setting. Much like I thought the booing of W a few years back at his state of the union was unclassy.

The question on wehather health reform passes as Obama wants it with the public option still ocomes down to one thing. Can he get enough blue dog democrats to fall o nthe wrod for him and end there careers? If the vote ere held right now, he does not ahve the votes for a public option.



The gallup tracking poll does not show anything thus far. You would think Gallup would mention something if there was a significant bounce in the numbers but there hasn't been any change.

Rasmussen is only finding the change from Democrats.

PPP(D) should go into the field nationally next week so we'll find out if there was any significant bounce. If there's not, this healthcare plan will likely be on its own death panel.



Obama's speech was reassuring. He did what he does best, appearing calm, resolute and adult-like while many of us are hurling grenades from ideological trenches. But he needs to get health care done and for the economy to improve.

My sense is that only then will his numbers see real improvement.




Its intresting how the two politcal spectrums viewed the speech. I thought he came off very angry and partisan. It was more of a campaign speech to me. He hit a lot of Dem talking points, took a lot of shots at the GOP....I just viewed it as highly partisan and he came off very angry and childish to me. But I assume that is why we are o nthe oppositte side of the spectrum.



It's amazing to me that Stillow thinks Obama was childish, when Joe Wilson acted worse than a lot of elementary kids I know at a joint session of congress. Seriously, one of the first things you learn in school is not to interrupt when someone's talking, especially if it is their turn to talk. You republicans got a whole month of your angry town halls. You could afford to give the president 45 minutes.

What's even funnier is that the law that allows illegal immigrants to get treated at hospitals was passed in 1986, signed by Reagan.

I will agree with you, though, that the speech was not meant for you. For it to be meant for republicans, it would have to have been conciliatory. It was meant to remind the people who voted for Obama why they voted for him, and to remind those wavering democrats in the house and senate that inaction = failure.




I am convinced some of you don't actually read on this site. I called out Wilson, I said while I agree with him Obama was being misleading, that was not the correct setting....just as it was not ok when Dems boo'd Bush at his state of the union....you guys cannot point to one thing and then shut your eyes when you do it.

As I stated i nthe CBS thread, you Dems seem to have forgotten how you acted the past 8 years.

For Dems to claim the holier than thou approach is like Bush claiming he was fiscally conservative..............



I for one am extremely pleased I am on opposite side of the political spector as Stillow. I'd rather side with the increasingly sane Dem side any old day. I'm one of those Indies that voted for President Obama and my opinion hasn't changed about him but my opinion of the republicans has gotten worse.



Stillow shows flashes of intelligence, but unfortunately he returns to his right-wing tropes, especially about how government can't do anything right.

He's also confusing left wing commentators like Olbermann or ideologues like Michael Moore with democratic representatives. I expect Rush Limbaugh or Glenn Beck to call Obama a liar on their shows. I don't expect a congressman to do it during a joint session *while the president is speaking.*



They can say crazy stuff on cable news or at the tea party rally all they want. Just look at the Texas Governor, who I'm sure will be at some tea party tomorrow.

But the capitol is their workplace. Everywhere I've ever worked demands a certain standard of conduct at their place of business, and if you act out of line, you get reprimanded.


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