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US: National Survey (Marist 6/17-24)

Topics: National , Poll

Marist
6/17-24/10; 813 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Marist release)

National

Obama Job Approval
44% Approve, 45% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 75 / 14 (chart)
Republicans: 14 / 78 (chart)
Independents: 37 / 49 (chart)
Economy: 46 / 48 (chart)
Gulf Oil Spill: 46 / 53

Approve / Disapprove
BP handling of Gulf oil spill: 17 / 83

Support / Oppose temporarily suspending new offshore drilling
46% support, 45% oppose

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 50 / 43 (chart)

 

Comments
scottkj:

Even Marist has him at negative approval.
Again, I await the Daily KOS poll to know the real truth. They are the most accurate pollster out there and I rely on KOS to give us a real picture of the President's approval rating.

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Farleftandproud:

Marist isn't that liberal. It is probably somewhat centrist. It is a Catholic University; I don't think they are flaming socialists.

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scottkj:

Even Marist has him at negative approval.
Again, I await the Daily KOS poll to know the real truth. They are the most accurate pollster out there and I rely on KOS to give us a real picture of the President's approval rating.

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RussTC3:

scottkj
Ignoring the situation between Daily Kos and R2K, it's important to note that your comment is still completely off base.

R2K NEVER on behalf of Daily Kos polled APPROVAL for the President, or any other politician for that matter.

They always polled for FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE ratings.

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Farleftandproud:

I got a call from the NRA warning that there is a international anti-gun control takeover. If you get a call from them taking a survey, report them for harrasment. I actually listened to the message and it was creepy. The NRA thinks the UN wants a world government that will ban handguns like they do in Great Britain.

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iVote:

1) This poll is a week or two old.

2) Even so, the results aren't surprising at all. We've been seeing an even split for a while now.

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melvin:

To cut the Debt the Republicans wants to raise the age for Social Security,they wants to cut the Dept of Ed by 50%,they wants to cut the dept of Tranportation by 50%,but at the sametime they wants to raise the Dept of Defense from 650 billion to 700 billion,its time the Democrats call the Gop out on this.

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melvin:

Dick Morris is predicting the Democrats is going to lose over 100 House seats and also 15 Senate seats along with 30 governorships.Dick Morris told Foxnews Hispanics in Blacks are not going to turn out this November. Dick Morris in the Gop is forgetting 10% of the vote in 1994 was Minority thats why the Gop won over 50 seats that year, but its going to be 22% in 2010,thats a big difference.I cant wait to see the expression on Foxnews when the Gop only gain about 25 House seats along with 4 Senate seats,oh hell they might jump out the window.

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Xenobion:

Dick Morris is an idiot. He's only on the air because he's a notable Democrat turncoat that likes to be promoted by O'Riely. He'd be nothing without him. Most of his crystal ball readings have been pretty bad too. I wouldn't take advice from a horse race from the guy.

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Farleftandproud:

Dick Morris is a complete miserable idiot. 100 seats? I don't think so. Democrats had won 8 straight special elections even in a conservative district of PA. I think Dick Morris would like minorites not to turn out. He is a mercenary, who at one time advised Bill clinton.

I don't even think there are 30 governorships to lose, and in the senate, I can see 10 seats, max they could lose.

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Mike E:

Curse that rasmussen! Oh, wait, this Reich-maris-KKK-t.

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JMSTiger:

@ Farlefty

I wouldn't worry what Dick Morris is saying. He is an idiot when it comes to political handicapping.

I am going to give you a dose of reality, not spin. If the election were held today, Republicans would probably pick up a net gain of around 30-35 seats in the House, 6-7 seats in the Senate and about 6-7 governorships. That would mean they would not gain control of either chamber, but come very close. It would also mean that the President and the Democrats in Congress would be unable to get any of their agenda through the Congress for the period of Jan 3, 2011 through Jan 3, 2013. We would have complete and total gridlock unless the two sides tried to compromise and pass centrist legislation, but we all know that would never happen.

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Field Marshal:

50% think Obama has not met expectations while 44% think he has. Those 44% must have had some pretty low expectations for him.

JMS,

I'm guessing 35 seats and 5 seats in the senate. I also think they will be a few seats short of the house. Gridlock would be great. This government works so much better when its gridlocked.

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tjampel:

Field Marshal:


"I'm guessing 35 seats and 5 seats in the senate. I also think they will be a few seats short of the house. Gridlock would be great. This government works so much better when its gridlocked."

Your guess then is for a just slightly worse than average midterm result for a president who took office amidst the worst economic crisis in 80 years... plus a few wars and a major disaster on his hands.

I feel kind of strange now, in that I expect a loss of about 40 and a similar loss in the Senate. It places me in the very odd position of being less optimistic about the Dem party than someone who really hates it. Maybe I need to re-evaluate?

I'm wondering how you would expect such a small pickup (compared to 94) when the conditions are so perfect for your party? You have HCR to run against, the failed stimulus (from you POV), huge unemployment, and an oil spill that the President hasn't stopped or shown leadership in responding to. You also have his attacking the AZ immigration law through the courts though it's immensely popular, even in MA.

How could conditions be more ideal for your side? If they're ideal why not a much larger pickup?

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ndirish11:

Haha. You guys (tjampel, Field Marshall) are both downplaying and over estimating according to what you really believe. I'm sure FM believes and the GOP will pick up more than what he is sauing and tjampel doesn't believe in the big losses he is 'predicting.'

It'll be somewhere in the middle and you will both be happy!

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jamesia:

Daily Kos is suing Research 2000 for poll fraud.

As for this poll, 50% still have a favorable opinion of the President. There are no GOP politicians that garner that support nationally.

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Sean Murphy:

"If the election were held today, Republicans would probably pick up a net gain of around 30-35 seats in the House, 6-7 seats"

That's how I see things as well but I would add that at least 60 Democratic seats are in play(perhaps more who knows?). RCP currently rates something 34 Democrtatic seats as tossups so it's really hard to tell how these tossups will go until we get to election day.

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JMSTiger:

@ tjampel

The reason I believe the GOP will "only" pick-up between 30-35 in the House is:

-Demographics: the voters in this mid-term will be less white and less Republican than in 1994

-Democratic money advantage: this will help save some Democratic held seats

-The damage that George W. Bush and the Republican Congress of 2001-06 did to the GOP brand: the voters (including most independents and even some Republicans), generally speaking, have a very negative opinion of the Republican Party. They also dislike the Democratic Party, but if they only disliked Democrats, but were either somewhat positive or at least evenly split about Republicans, the GOP would be able to roll up a net 45-60 seat gain in the House. Because they too are very unpopular, the Democrats will probably not suffer a total annihilation, just a good whipping

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JMSTiger:

@ Field Marshal

I too am all for gridlock because I would rather the Federal Government get very little done. I also prefer divided government (like the good ole days of the mid to late 90s) and even if the GOP does not take control of either the House or the Senate, there will most likely be de facto divided government because the Republicans will be so close to a majority that they would only need a handful of moderate/Blue Dog Democrats in either chamber to get their way.

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StatyPolly:

Not only RCP lists 34 Dem seats as tossups, it also lists 23 current Dem seats as likely/lean GOP. Of the total 255 Dem seats, RCP lists 105 as in play, although 48 are listed as likely lean Dem.

So it's 105 Dem seats in play, but only 15 current GOP seats in play, and only 4 of those are tossup/lean/likely Dem.

Another way RCP puts it: 150 current Dems are safe and 165 GOP are safe.

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StatyPolly:

JMST,

But what is similar to 1994 is the enthusiasm gap. I think it's even greater now than back then. GOP now has 178 seats so they need a minimum pickup of 40 seats to get to majority. When you see generic ballot for even registered voters about tied (even excluding Rass and Gallup), it points to GOP winning popular congressional vote. If they win popular vote, they gain majority in the House and thus gain that 40 seat minimum. Currently polls point to a 55-60 seat GOP gain.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Dick Morris"

Condi vs. Hillary. A published book by Dick Morris. Enough said.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"they would only need a handful of moderate/Blue Dog Democrats"

It looks as if these people will be the first to lose.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"When you see generic ballot for even registered voters about tied "

It means little now. As JMSTiger noted, this is not 1994. The electorate has changed. There are a bunch of people who voted in 1994 that are now dead, and newer voters are less republican.

I don't know what's going to happen, since we've never had a mid-term where BOTH parties favs were so low. In 1994 the repubs were much higher. They're counting on the independent vote, but I have a feeling that independent turnout will not be very high. Those that do turnout will favor republicans, though. The democrats have shown in the house special elections that they can still turn out the vote.

Everyone thinks that this is 1994 because of the generic ballot, due to the theory that dems need to be up by 5 or 6 for the vote to be even. I feel that this is a declining factor, similar to how we didn't see any Bradley effect in 2008, although many people predicted it. That's another holdover from the early 90s that people erroneously assumed was still true.

The characteristics of this election are very similar to 1982. A president whose approval was not good, economy very bad, unemployment high, lots of animosity toward the president from his detractors for his policies. Protests against him (no one recalls the complaints about Reaganomics or the anti-nuclear protests that were much larger than any tea party) Also similar are the characteristics of the opposition - trounced in the previous election, essentially leaderless. They all thought Reagan was done after that. Problem was they had no one, absolutely no one to run against him.

The republicans were inevitably going to make gains this cycle. It was impossible for them to have gone much lower, particularly in the house.

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Bigmike:

You guys are being very kind to Dick Morris. He's a whore without a soul. He didn't switch sides. He is just for sale to the highest bidder. Fox News should drop him.

Prediction night? I think the GOP comes up just short in both houses and is just a little short of the gains they had in 94, as it stands today.

The difference is in 94 the GOP had the Contract with America. All they have this time is that they are not the left wing loonies currently running the show.

And it could all change tomorrow. If the economy turns either way, the numbers move with it. And this economy is not going to make any dramatic improvements by Nov. The huge, and unexpected, dip in consumer confidence the other day is a really bad sign.

+8 in the Senate, making it Dems 51-49. One short of the +9 in 94. Extremes would be GOP adding 6 on the low end and 10 on the upper end.

+38 in the house, which I believe would put it at Dems 219-216. Well short of the +54 in 94. Extremes would be GOP adding 30 worst case and 60 best case.

I don't see a lot of upside for the Dems. They have laid out their agenda and the people are rejecting it.

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hoosier_gary:

Market indicators are showing that economies are slowing again - worldwide. We found out that China barely expanded in the first quarter - not shot ahead like was mistakenly reported. Consumer confidence plunged. Home sales have gone into the toilet. New home construction is almost non-existant. ADP showed that only 13,000 private sector jobs were added in June. The stock market lost 10% in the 2nd quarter.

If, on top of this horrible economic news, the employment figures that come out later today look unexpectedly bad - the momentum will shift even stronger against the democrats.

The republicans have a plan - similar to the contract with America in 94. It won't be released for a few months yet - for maximum effect in the elections.

Personally, I think this is the high mark for democrats. Obama is getting meaner and nastier by the day and his petulant spoiled brat comments are grating on more and more people. People are desperate for leadership and he is playing typical chicago style politics.

I'm thinking a loss of 9 seats in the senate and 60 in the house. That is unless we get some unexpected good surprises in economic reports in the next few weeks.

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Field Marshal:

Gary,

weekly unemployment claims up to 472,000. For the non-financial or non-economists out there, you really need sub-400,000 for job creation and sub-300,000 for meaningful job creation. Anything above 500,000 is usually indicative of job loss.

Aaron,

You are correct that both parties are disliked but i think people vote based on the incumbent and majority party- voting with or rejecting their policies. I don't believe the favorability of the GOP is going to come into play as much as people think.

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StatyPolly:

"There are a bunch of people who voted in 1994 that are now dead, and newer voters are less republican."

Old White people are just not dying fast enough. Nor are Hispanics reproducing at a satisfactory rate. Both groups need to hurry up and finish fulfilling their demo-bio destiny, dammit!

Anywho, Gallup pegs voter ID today at the exact same 3pt Dem advantage as it did in 94.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/25468/democratic-advantage-party-identification-widens-postelection.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/141080/Democratic-Affiliation-Stable-Second-Qtr-Recent-Slide.aspx

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StatyPolly:

And then, of course, there is this:

http://2010central.gallup.com/2010/04/conservative-enthusiasm-surging.html

http://www.gallup.com/poll/140819/republicans-midterm-voting-enthusiasm-tops-prior-years.aspx

As far as national ethnic demographics are concerned, I think the main difference between 94 and now is the increase in illegals of Hispanic origin. Who, to the best of my knowledge, are expected to turnout at fairly low numbers this election cycle.

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HookedOnPolls:

I kinda like YESTERDAY'S Gallup article:

July 1, 2010

Independent Voters Favor GOP in 2010 Election Tracking

Prefer Republican candidate to Democrat by an average of 45% to 35%

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StatyPolly:

Yeah, I was just reading that one, Hooked.

45 to 35 is the average for the quarter. It's actually been trending towards GOP as time goes along.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/141086/Independent-Voters-Favor-GOP-2010-Election-Tracking.aspx

From the same piece, RV party ID gap is narrowing also, averaging for the qtr 35 to 31.

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