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US: National Survey (Marist/McClatchy 9/14-16)

Topics: National , poll

Marist / McClatchy
9/14-16/10; 1,005 adults, 3% margin of error
815 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Marist release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
47% Republican, 45% Democrat (chart)

State of the Country
41% Right Direction, 56% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
45% Approve, 50% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 81 / 15 (chart)
Reps: 13 / 82 (chart)
Inds: 40 / 54 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 49 / 48 (chart)

 

Comments
Stillow:

Approval aside, Barry's favorable rating is now below 50 on average. That is an ugly sign for his future. Approval you can bounce back from, once people stop liking you as a person/leader, much tougher to recover.

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BH:

Re-weight the ID breaks against a 2004-like turnout model and you get 50-45 R.

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StatyPolly:

Some bits:

37% of Democrats feel strongly that Republicans should not win control.

61% of voters who are very enthusiastic about voting this November say they are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate while 34% of those who express a high level of excitement are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate

Younger voters are especially disappointed when it comes to their hopes for the president

For the first time since becoming president, a majority of voters -- 54% -- report the president has fallen below their expectations

the change he is affecting is perceived by a plurality of voters nationwide -- 41% -- as change for the worse

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Paleo:

And enthusiastic break 52-42% for Democrats. They don't indicate whether "very enthusiastic" (I'm waiting for very, very enthusiastic) is included within the "enthusiastic" number or is separate.

And I would have said Obama has fallen below expectations, but I'll still be voting Democratic.

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StatyPolly:

BH, where do you see party ID? All I am seeing is 369 Repubs among 815 RV's on page 6, but no Dem number. Help!

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Aaron_in_TX:

"fallen below expectations"

All presidents do. Especially in the modern era where they set up unrealistic expectations.

Did Clinton not underwhelm? He failed everything he tried in the first two years and after that basically did nothing besides cheat on his wife.

Bush II? He REALLY underwhelmed, especially from the conservative perspective. Increased spending and growth of gov't greatly and abortion just as legal as the day he took office.

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StatyPolly:

Paleo, good point on "very very". I am seeing some of the pollsters disclose their LV screen, based on respondents self-proclaimed enthusiasm, ometimes combined with self-proclaimed voting history, and they usually end up with 70-80% of RV's as LV's. Now, we know that's bull, since there is no way that actual turnout in a mid-term election will be anything higher than 40's of RV's. Just an observation.

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melvin:

In 41 days we are going to find out what pollsters are outliers in what pollsters are legit..Rasmussen,Survey USA,Mason-Dixon,and Quinnipiac is really putting they're creditability on the line,because if the GOP don't win 8 Senate seats or don't pickup over 55 seats in the Congress it means these pollsters will not be taken very seriously in 2012...

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melvin:

I wonder what the media would say if the Democrats filibuster 70% of Republicans bills..Back in 2007 when the Democrats filibuster only 10% of Bush's bills the media lead by Fox news went absolutely crazy..So where is the media on this,because the GOP has just about filibuster everything the Democrats tried to bring to the floor..

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Paleo:

Melvin, IOKIYAR, don't you know?

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Bukama:

I think it will be great if the Dems filibuster republican spending bills. I would be happy if the only spending that took place was that which both Republicans and Democrats agreed on.

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Travis:

@Stillow:

I think that's a premature assertion. Many polls still show him above 50% favorability, and some are substantially above 50%.

Of the ones that do show him below 50%, many of them offer a "Neutral" (or similar) option. In those polls, that "Neutral" option is pulling about 12-15%.

So, right now, his favorability is still fine. Yet, continued sub-50% approval could certainly change that.

Conversely, any rebound in approval will probably pull some of those "Neutral favorability" people off the fence in those polls showing him with a favorability below 50%.

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BH:

SP,

I used their breaks and then weighted against a 37-37-26 turnout model. It's actually 48-45 R as I was looking at the wrong column.

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Georgia Joe:

Obama's favorable versus unfavorable rating is still positive and on average only about 5 or 6 points below his rating at the time of his election. Considering what he's been dealing with, not too bad a drop. His position is far superior to the voice of the Republican Party, Sarah Palin. She averages above 50%, but that's unfavorable. Using the analysis from above, she is dead as a nationwide candidate, but she sure can excite the hardcore right.

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Stillow:

Travis - Fair enough. i used the overall average on faves which has him under 50...and it is much easier to rebound from bad approval than bad faves.

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StatyPolly:

Here's BOBO fave chart:

/polls/us/fav-obama.html

It was 70% at inauguration and it's 48% now. Considering that WH's own estimate for unemployment for 2011 is 9%, I don't know where his popularity bump will come from. If unemployment does not start to improve decidedly, it will be continuous slow drip down.

Although I believe that if we get a rock solid gridlock between WH and Congress, the economy may begin to rock and create tons of jobs.

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StatyPolly:

In Jan 09, net favorability was about 53% positive, 70-17. Now it's net 3.7%, 48.0-44.3.

I'd say it's changed. A little bit.

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Georgia Joe:

Don't use the bounce associated with the election to inauguration honeymoon period. Use the favorable near election day. That was in the mid-50's. Since the inauguration, it has been a full blown anti-Obama campaign season for Republicans and the right wing commentators. His favorables during the campaign and those today are a much more realistic comparison of changes in the public's attitude toward him personally. His favorables and job approval have not been driven down as dramatically as Ronald Reagan's in a similar economic environment in 1982.

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Bukama:

@ GA Joe,

You're right. The fullblown anti-reagan assault of 1981-82 was more effective than the assault on Obama. And neither compare to the assault on George Bush in 2001 (up till 9/11).

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PubliusFL:

Another interesting thing about this poll: Conventional wisdom has been that one reason to question the generic ballot poll results is regionalism. The only poll so far to provide regional breakdowns (that I'm aware of) is NBC's, and many commenters have pointed to NBC's results to argue that the GOP's generic ballot lead is the result of a huge lead in the South alone, while the Democrats are ahead everywhere else. Therefore, the argument goes, the generic ballot results overstate the magnitude of the GOP's potential gains, because what they really show is the GOP running up its victory margins in the South, where most seats are already Republican.
This poll, however, shows the Republicans leading in every region except the Northeast. The Republican margin in the Midwest is just as big as in the South (5%).

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Republican margin in the Midwest is just as big as in the South"

The Feingold race kind of suggests that. The midwest is the most important swing region in the country, and that's probably where Dems will lose the house if they do.

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